And concept causes and consequences

of mortality reversal
Entre Recent times many countries witnessing
b LE
As demographic transition progresses
b
Epidemiological transition progresses
6
mortality continue to fall till it
stabilises at very low in the last
stages

However in recent times we have seen

Some countries have experiencing
increase in mortality after a
period of declining mortality
This reversal of mortality has been
referred as mortality reversal
b
It is normal that mortality increases
in situt io situations of like
emergency
wow famine rendamic thus such
situations not included in mortality
reversal ble it is considered over a
peso longer period in decades

Such mortality reversal are seen in

both developed and
developing world
Develomed world
Russia normally in
poland
z Nth stage they should
move to I but reversal

Developed
Ls in Ind world countries they
have one
already completed transition
they are in stage of degenerative
diseases
lifestyle diseases
which of
are
primary course
mortality
Causes
T lifestyle unhealthy food smoking
General neglect of personal health care
Lack of physical exercise due to increased
mechanisation and automation
Stress and relative deprivation in competitive
world
Inability to copeeconomic changes
with
Access to preventive health care

Developing countries
Zimbawe
Botswana
kenya
most of these countries in
are II or
Stage of ITT

cause
Reemergence of many infectious diseases
due to resistance and mutation
malaria overuse of DDT

Natural Disasters climate change

Politico economic instability
Tribal conflict Sudan
Inequality and high incident of poverty
prevalence of HIV Incidence

Ef e

s Lunsa
Consequence
Developed countries
some located in NI stage of DTT
possible that transition to sth stage
halt
Beneficial less old age population
Further shrinking
ble decline in
of population
fertility is normally
irreversable

Developing countries
Located in I stage
Fertility transition would get
delay d
1
fi
l
i I l l
i n
I l
p
i l
i 1
Ef mortality decline chances of delay
no

of fertility decline enlarged and stage

and huge population pressure
conclusions Investment in health
technology to achieve Sustainable
goal
Ansf Fertility is variable with time
Space This variability governed
by
numerous factors
including the level of
mortality social economic development
reached availability of birth control
measures and govt policies

Factors
Geneal most direct factor mortality
sale DTT
This general decline in MRI ER
are complex inter related with various
social economic parruter parameters
ex explained by Huw Jo MS
Age of marriage
Exposer to
monogamy 1 polygamy
intercourse widowhood divorce
spousal separation

I rt ma

conception pathological sterility

l contraceptive are
 b
Spontaneous abortion
pregnuucy
outcomes Induced abortion

socio economic Factors

D
Eity Life Lurbanisation Requirement
of farm Labour
Pension Social insurance

cemetery Idycation extra expenses

and no more child labour no
economic advantages

Education Higher goals social

capillarity higher awareness

changing status of women

work force reduced fecundity
Difficult child rearing
Encryption cost of living

secIazisation universal religion

desire to
 of 7
Patterns of world fertility
Temporal
8 i

7
6
TFR i
s

li
i
early igth
century
Time
Phe 2

Factors Developed countries reached

in HIM and stage of
I ITT

Reasonse mortality decline

They were following Malthusian market
principles 9 burden of child bearing
Urbanisation
status of women
Secularisation

Phase
Fertility transition started in some ofthe
developing countries It continues to decline
in developed countries
 2015 world Fertility 2.5

Developed world Developing

Individualism Socio economic
development
urbanisation
education level
Status of women
Dedicated Fertility
control policies
ex China

spatial
High Sub Saharan Africa s w
Asia Northern
7 A Africa
Africa a a
medium Developing Latine America
Asia 2.1 Asia
Lowe Developed
Europe lo 6

Latin America Z l
North American 2 0

Oceania 2 2
12

For of human history fertility has

gov
remain high due to following factors
High mortality for gg c of human
history and need to replenish society
Fertility mortality
Inmajority of societies socio culture
traditions have made where fertility
is not
left to choice of individuals
phenomena of universal marriage
to institutionalize the exposure to
intercourse Higher respect for married
couples
compulsory child bearing
Religion
15602 study by Seh para regatta tribe
Africa Very high moortitity So high
fertility
1972 Yamba tribe western Nigeria
woes families with less than a child
looked down
 Children as security and labour
children to take care in old age
Pre modern society People were aware

that ble of high mortality survival

was not sure So more children

Lower status of women in the society

Patriarchal society male dominance

so def desire fr male child
Last nite rites performed by son
Study in Yoruba trike Nigeria TFR 6
So average survival rate of 2
 Pendamics Fertility
pendamics emerging emergencies
are

which affect mortality and

morbidity
it is expected to affect
so
fertility
covid
l.ge can affect Ao i to 701
of world population mortality o 5 7051
15 to 200 Mn population ebola mortality
5

morbidity Quarantine
mortality
lockdown all have impact on fertility

Study of past pendamic show that

fertility changes in short medium and
Long term
Short term
Tatter g months of beginning of
Pendamic decline in moc Fertility
result of morbidity and mortality
socio economic instability
ebola sa
medium term
pendamic finishes
 z ups spine in fertility bee
mortality replacement
Postponed fertility decision
implemented During pendamic postponed

function of Survivors How

many

Itm Impact on fertility higher

Longterm
Difficult to predict based
on
many factor
Pendamic alter the
marriage market ex
death of young ones
Govind Lg old age 7
mortality So no
expected effect on
marriage market
Scale of disaster
a ort.ro lines Pronatalist so

high fertility
Socio economic impact of disaster
Scandinavia countries Poonam
Famine in Finland isth century
And Examine the spatial variability of
DTT
Human being are dual role biological
we all ane same involving in process of
reproduction but also behave as

culture animal soo based on

variable socio economic technological
development differs from place to
place so demographic transition also
vary from country to country or
region to region
It has varied in 1st 2nd fyrd
world countries and even
among
different countries
1st w
Inductive theory based on 1st world
countries and similarity to theory

DR_ 351 to get 1st stage

Duration of II stage a A decades
2nd half of cgth century transition
began 1St half of soth
century
transition completed
Time duration differed
finish
Britain 2860 29305
USA 1880 29205
Also experience I stage Eve poph growth
zudworld
In stage shorter
fertility decline
faster
Faster
cis

diffusion of
I
c
1
x
medicine technology
Politico economic instability a low
fertility
 so
they added smaller base of pop
So I'd stage shooter
They started transition in igzos and
completed in 1980 s gos

III d
Fertility was
worl
above
s a

AO l
1
I i
DR RDR were
I

I
l
higher to is
flint 1
1 i
world i

I i

Remained in end stage for Gtf

decades btc decline in mortality
came before the beginning of the socio
economic process began
b how
Import of mc medical technology
India mortality decline since is zos
as a result fertility decline Late
gbap
leading to high population base

Ird_Stage Absolute popn growth higher

 once decline
began some countries
seem very fast decline to ex China
ble dedicated
fertility policy
within d world LDC
sub Saharan Africa
Afghanistan
some
seeing mortality reversal
2nd stage may
further prolonge

Conclusion As the theorie theory was

inductive theory So lots of
flexibility
so later on a stage model was
converted to A
stage model and
now 5 Stage
principles continue to hold
1
mortality decline
2
Eventually Fertility also decline
socio economic transformation
of society
 mortality
Trans
Fertility
i
1 Trans
I l
l l l
l l l
l l

TT
l

l tl
l
l l l
According to demographic TT
demographic transaction start with
mortality transition and eventually
fertility transition and further
accompanied by various socio
economic transition
Body thus IT is made up of
several transition
including
mortality Transition
Fertility transition
Age transition
transition
 urbanisation in

Development is

Household 71

Age Transition Age Pyramid

5
bulgeat o
age

Fertility decline bulge move to

working population
 migration transition

T
h
End stage explosion population resource
imbalance created and unemployment
leading to migration to under
populated or
optimum populated areas

leeistheorge uniform economic condition

less migration vice versa

Rostov model of transition

Heavy
manuf

a
R R
 Cao to recording
z 50

urbanisation Transition

To 807
I i 1
I T
I
l I
i
I f
l l
l
l
51
I 1

It urbanisation through Natural poph

growth low R V migration

main component R V migration

and R V transformation
Low share of natural poph growth
NI RI Flattened curve 3 pattern
possible
 Reduction Sub urbanisation
V R
depending on countryy
policies on international migration

India prior roll main component

natural growth Post 2011
R V migration R U transformation

Development transition i
1
Rostov i l
n
l I
i 1 I
I
l
i
2nd stage I od
stage
ath

s i
Doth inductive model based on western
countries Rostov based on economic

political transition

Household
Family
Size of family big small
Type of Joint Nuclear
 Basic luxury
consumption needs consum
status of women

G examine pattern of urbanisation in

India
Literary pattern
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6. Consumption – As the consumption of luxury goods becomes an increasing priority, having
fewer mouths to feed means families can dedicate more of the household budget to servicing
wants rather than needs.
7. Secularism – Some religions promote large family sizes and/or approaches to human sexuality
that lead by default to larger family sizes. Modernization often leads to secularism. As religions
ebb in their significance, secular attitudes to marriage, child bearing, contraception, and
abortion emerge. People are better able to control the size of their families.
Patterns of world fertility: Discussed in the class.

Q12. “For majority of human history, fertility has been

maintained at very high level.” Explain.
Discussed in the class.

Q13. Examine the relationship between pandemics and

fertility.
Discussed in the class.

Q14. Discuss the causes and consequences of

demographic transition.
Discussed in the class.

Q15. “Rather than being one demographic transition, there

are, in reality, many”. Discuss.
There is little evidence to suggest that all the countries where the transition originated had a general
similarity in the trends from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. In fact, both the
sequential patterns of fertility and mortality and their timings have varied greatly from country to
country even in the West.

Similarly, though the pattern of demographic transition can clearly be recognised, yet the way it is
derived from diverse socio-economic changes, it varies so much from country to country that it is
difficult to say that the transition diffused from one country to another. It seems that the diffusion
took place from one world to another. As it diffused from one type of world to another it also
underwent certain modifications.

The sequential pattern as well as the temporal span were never the same in Western Europe, East
Europe and the Third World. There has been a good deal of variety between these three worlds and
even within the countries belonging to the same world. It may not be out of place to elaborate upon
the experience of these three worlds.

Experience of the First World Countries

By and large the First World consisting of Northwestern Europe, North America, Australia, New
Zealand, South Africa experienced the typical sequential pattern of fertility and mortality as visualized

22
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in the demographic transition model with a little bit of variety in demographic responses of individual
countries. The transition was completed during the late 19th or early 20th century when the rest of
the world still remained in the first stage. In the case of the First World it has often been stated that
the fertility levels were never as high as being experienced by the other parts of the world. The
demographic transformation here was coupled with the socio-economic transformation and
technological advancements.

Experience of the Second World Countries

In the Second World consisting largely of Eastern Europe, the transition period began in the early
decades of 20th century with Austria and Czechoslovakia first showing the signs of departing from the
first stage. Interestingly, the Second World countries never experienced the explosive stage of
population growth as was envisaged by the original transformation model. By 1940, most of the
countries of the Second World comprising Austria, Czechoslovakia, Ireland, Switzerland, Finland,
countries of the Southern and South-eastern Europe crossed over to the third stage of the transition.

All these countries experienced only moderate population growth as the time span between the
fertility and mortality decline was too short. Japan also followed this pattern and entered the second
stage of moderate growth in 1930s. The erstwhile U.S.S.R. joined this group in 1940s. Both these
countries crossed over to the third stage by 1950s. It reveals that both the sequential pattern and the
time span of demographic transition experienced by the Second World countries were very much
different from the one experienced by the First World. In case of Second World countries, thus, neither
there occurred a population explosion nor the transition prolonged to a century or so. The transition
was completed within 30 to 40 years.

Perhaps it was possible because both the Church and the State were not that opposed to the
deliberate measures of controlling the family size. It expedited the process of fertility decline.
Moreover, the accessibility to the modern medicines further helped in sharpening a decline in
mortality.

Experience of the Third World Countries

The experience of the Third World consisting of the remaining countries of the world was very much
different from the First and the Second worlds. Relatively small-sized countries of the Third World
were first to experience the signs of explosive second stage. Suriname entered the second stage in
early 1930s. Gradually, the explosive second stage spread to other smaller countries of Latin America,
Africa, Asia. The big countries like China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh entered the second
stage of the transition only in 1950s. Mortality declines in large-sized countries took little longer period
to reach appreciably low levels. The necessary fertility regulations came quite late in case of the big
countries. Consequently, the great mortality declines were not accompanied by the moderation of
fertility. With the result although early stages of demographic transition were observed in many Third
World countries, yet there was no assurance about the later stages. Even the small countries, which
entered the early second stage in early 1930s, continued to be in the explosive second stage for over
forty years.

Often it has been feared about the Third World that the imported medical and public health
technology has drastically cut the mortality rates of the Third World countries but there have been no
accompanying socio-economic changes required for promoting fertility reductions. Recently, there

23
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has been optimism vis-a-vis Third World countries, particularly after the experience of China. It seems
that China is on the verge of crossing over to the third stage if the latest estimates of its fertility and
mortality are any indication.

Those who believe in the universality of the demographic transition are quite optimistic and assert
that fertility regulation can be achieve.', in case of Third World as well. In support of their argument,
they cite the examples of Germany, Southern and Eastern Europe, Japan, all of which experienced a
concentrated and accelerated fertility decline. They also point out that in fact, the pace of
modernization in the Third World is more rapid than that in the 19th century Europe. The Third World
countries, by and large, are fortunate in having the government support in most of the cases
(excluding some of the Islamic countries) and capability to promote policies in fertility regulations.
About the Islamic world it may be said that their fertility is so institutionally inter-woven with their
cultural fabric that its reduction poses a serious problem.

Q16. “Demographic transition in reality is a set of

transitions.” Explain.
According to Demographic Transition Theory (DTT), along with demographic transition, various
demographic processes (set of Transitions) are taking place simultaneously such as socio-economic
changes, changes in each demographic features like fertility, mortality etc. Thus, demographic
transition can be understood from the perspective of the transitionary evolution of the various
demographic features. Such important transitionary processes are.

1. Mortality & Health Transition:

DTT starts with the health & mortality transition, which is the result of the epidemiological
transition and progress in modern medicine. As a result, parasitic and infectious diseases will
be controlled leading to maximum impact in the lower part of the pyramid in the early stage
DTT countries (least developed countries) – because of the sharp decline in IMR and child
mortality. Thus, their demographic pyramid would be with broader base and taper top. (Draw
the age pyramid)
In the case of Advanced D.T countries (5th stage – developed countries) Maximum impact
would be felt at the top part of the pyramid, because of the sharp increase in the life
expectancy and consequent reduction in the mortality of the senior citizens. Thus, their
demographic pyramid will be a top – heavy pyramid. (Draw the age pyramid)
The countries, which come in between these two extremes, will also experience a gradual
transformation.
2. Fertility transition:
There exist a direct relationship between the health and mortality transition and the fertility
transition.
As the result of the Health and mortality transition, the probability of survival of infants and
children will be increased in a rapid way. It will exert a positive influence on the family to bring
down the fertility by reducing the occurrence of delivery.
The health & mortality transition will increase the life expectancy, which will in turn encourage
late – marriage, especially in women, reducing the fertility – window and thus, leading to a
positive fertility transition.

24
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3. Age Transition:
The set of first two transitions together impact the age transition. So, the age- pyramid will
take many forms depending upon the stages of DTT that the society or country has reached,
as shown in the figure.

4. Migration Transition:
Because of the relative variability in the stages of DTT between the regions or between the
urban and the rural areas within the same or of different regions, there occurs migration
transition in a manner that the early stage transition areas (relatively under developed) acting
as source regions (Push factors>pull factors) and the advanced stage transition areas
(relatively developed) acting as destination regions (pull factors>push factors).

5. Urban Transition:
The afore-mentioned three factors, especially the migration transition cause’s rural – urban
migration and in turn, it triggers the process of urban transition. GUIDANCE IAS
6. House hold & family transition:
With the progress of urban transition, more households will come under the influence of
urbanisation, triggering the process of household & family transition. It will manifest in many
ways like joint family to nuclear family, single breadwinner to working couple, collective
responsibility to individualism etc.

Conclusion:

All these transitions would have inevitably initiated the process of transition in all other demographic
features like literacy, MMR etc. Thus, the demographic transition is an intricately interrelated
phenomena of many transitions, where the change in any one transition process will have an impact

25
Cause
Direct causes
mortality Fertility transitions
In turn
complexity tied to
socio economic transition
occurring in the society

mortality Tsan
Developed countries
Developing countries simultaneous
socio economic
Fertility transition changes

Consequences
IStagee overpopulation poverty
Slums

migration

IIStagy pop slow down

L positive implication
 Demographic Dividentd

Late III R N V
Population aging
Feminisation of old age
17

y thodern zrigration Rennaissance

European migration 2 direction

Tropical coastal land plantation
L Labour
initially Europe
Africa
Asia

was are
aawg.gs a qany

Temperate Grassland
North America
South America
South Africa
Australia New zealand

contemporary
L International
migration slow down
Internal
migration increased
R V V R
Distribution Urban metropolitan
conclusion For new world migration
played imp role b but
other
factors
physiographic
L climate desert
Topographic mt
vegetation RF

Economic
Agri rice in Asia
Industry urban areas