Intro China the most populated country of the

world has been source of number of

pendamic SARS
Swine Flu
covid cg
origination and
spread of Covid Lg
from Wuhan has again resurfaced
debate on relationship the population
density and epidemics

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new

pendamics are just expressions of post the

positive checks visualised by Malthus

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H
densely populated areas positioe
checks
Where the pendamics have
had their maximum impact

Newyorky 2.6 population high

density so SARS covid 1g have
world worst impact on city population
Study of influenza
philadelphia
918

death
rate
parrot

i Influenza
Pneumonia
death
Inde covid og
worst affected are areas
Wood
Delhi Mumbai Chennai metropolitan
cities high density

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several studies have given mixed result
most of them are incont inconclusive

most of the studies on the subject it

is difficult to ascertain relationship
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F FI
proportion of susceptible pop
is unknown
 Covid is similar to SARS and

many had inbuilt immunity

most of the studies are taking
mortality as But is not only
criteria
function of diffusion of disease
but also of medical 1 heath
infrastructure
many factors are neglected line
climatic conditions
favourable Hot humid
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population Covid Lg old age

in developed countries more vulnerable
an comparable to young developing
countries
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marxist view

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more
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is
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 single most important factor
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1 2 5

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cost of education privatisation
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madrasas
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b
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war drought
fundamentalism
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DRC
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Ravenstein Distance
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Malthusian carrying capacity

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check
Agri Revolution
m arxist problem of
distribution due to socio economic
structures

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Asia

Pooblemse Even growth rate declining

absolute p pm would be
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area
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food crisis How to solve
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in India
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 Ching 2050 over Go population
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over population and out migration

brain drain

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by end of century
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to decline
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population
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migrants violence against migrants
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living in slums

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countries
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emergence of emergencies
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water Pah
L
emergence of conflicts
N
Yorubas Hansa
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North med Nw
Africa Europe Europe

comeeting migration

India A a

source destination

I
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to individualism which is in reversal
people l more focused on personal
goals
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India now has the largest ‘‘diaspora’’ in the world, followed by Mexico, the Russian Federation and
China. In 2015, 16 million persons from India were living outside of their country of birth compared to
12 million from Mexico. Other countries with large diasporas included the Russian Federation (11
million), China (10 million), Bangladesh (7 million), and Pakistan and Ukraine (6 million each). Of the
top twenty countries or areas of origin of international migrants, 11 were in Asia, 6 in Europe, and 1
each in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern America.

Between 2000 and 2015, some countries have experienced a rapid growth in the size of their diaspora
populations. Among the countries and areas with the fastest average annual growth rate during this
period were the Syrian Arab Republic (13.1 per cent per annum), Romania (7.3 per cent per annum),
Poland (5.1 per cent per annum) and India (4.5 per cent per annum). In Syria much of this increase
was due to the large outflow of refugees and asylum seekers following the conflict in the area.

‘‘Diasporas’’ from some countries of origin tend to concentrate in particular countries of destination.
Mexico’s diaspora is concentrated in just one country: the United States of America. In 2015, the
United States of America hosted some 12 million persons born in Mexico, equal to nearly 98 per cent
of all Mexicans living abroad. Other examples of countries with diaspora populations settled
predominantly in one country include Algeria (in France), Burkina Faso (in Côte d'Ivoire), Cuba and El
Salvador (in the United States of America), and New Zealand (in Australia). In contrast, India’s diaspora
is more evenly spread out between a number of destination countries, including the United Arab
Emirates (3 million), and Pakistan and the United States of America (2 million each).
Several countries of the former Soviet Union, including the Russian Federation and Ukraine, also have
more evenly distributed diaspora populations.

Q23. Outline the key challenges the world will face as the
demographic transition runs its course across the
remainder of this century.
The United Nations Population Division (UNDP) provides authoritative population projections to the
year 2050, and more speculative forecasts to the year 2100, and even 2300. Because population
projections are especially sensitive to changes in fertility levels, the UNDP paints a variety of scenarios
depending upon different fertility forecasts:
 a “constant variant” scenario, assuming fertility levels continue in the future much as they are
today;
 a “medium variant” estimate, where TFRs behave as expected;
 “high variant” and “low variant” projections, based upon the assumption that all countries
exhibit TFRs of 0.5 of a child above or 0.5 of a child below the medium variant.

According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects: 2012 Revision (United Nations
Population Division, 2013), world population will continue to grow during the remainder of this
century, although the pace of growth may decline after 2050. If birth rates were to remain as they
were in the period 2005–2010, remarkably, world population could rise to over 28 billion by 2100. The
medium variant projection predicts a growth in world population from 7.2 billion today to 9.6 billion
in 2050 and to 10.9 billion by 2100. The high variant scenario predicts a population of 16.6 billion in
2100 whilst the low variant estimate points to a slight contraction in world population to 6.8 billion by
2100.

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Of course, population growth in the twenty-first century will occur more rapidly in some regions and
not at all in others. As a consequence, a significant regional redistribution in population is likely.
According to the United Nations, the following developments are likely to occur:
 Asia – Asia in 2100 will remain the most populated continent, but its population will peak
around 2055 (at circa 5.2 billion) and gradually decline toward the end of the century to 4.7
billion by 2100. By 2100, India, with a population of 1.55 billion, will be the most populated
country in the world.
 Africa – Perhaps the most significant demographic event of this century will be Africa’s
sustained population expansion, from 1.1 billion today to 4.2 billion by the end of the century.
By 2100, Nigeria (at 913 million) will displace the United States to become the third-largest
country in the world.
 Europe – The population of Europe will peak around 2020 at 743 million and thereafter decline
to 639 million by 2100. By 2100, the Russian Federation (at 101 million) will house Europe’s
largest population.
 Latin America and the Caribbean – The population of Latin America and the Caribbean is
projected to reach a maximum around 2065 at 791 million, after which point it will decline to
736 million by 2100. By 2100, Brazil (at 195 million) and Mexico (at 140 million) will be the
largest countries in the continent.
 North America – The population of North America will rise from 355 million in 2013 to 446
million by 2050 and finally to 527 million in 2100. By 2100, the United States will be the fourth-
largest country in the world, with a population of 462 million.
 Oceania – The population of Oceania will rise marginally from 38 million in 2013 to 56 million
by 2050 and 70 million by 2100. But Oceania will remain the least populated of all continents,
with only 0.6% of the world’s population.

Key Challenges: Discussed in the class.

Discussed in the class.

Q24. “There seems to be emergence of demographic

fatigue in some parts of the world.” Analyse with special
focus on emergencies like COVID 19.
Concept of Demographic fatigue
Many countries that have experienced rapid population growth for several decades are showing signs
of demographic fatigue, a result of the struggle to deal with the multiple stresses caused by high
fertility. Countries struggling with the simultaneous challenge of educating growing numbers of
children, creating jobs for swelling ranks of young job seekers, and dealing with the environmental
effects of population growth, such as deforestation, soil erosion, and falling water tables, are
stretched to the limit. When a major new threat arises-such as AIDS or aquifer depletion-governments
often cannot cope. Problems routinely managed in industrial societies are becoming full-scale
humanitarian crises in many developing ones. As a result, some developing countries with rapidly
growing populations are headed for population stability in a matter of years, not because of falling
birth rates, but because of rapidly rising death rates.

Background:

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To understand the widely varying population growth rates among countries, demographers use a
three-stage model of how these rates change over time as modernization proceeds. In the first stage,
there are high birth and high death rates, resulting in little or no population growth. In the second
stage, as modernization begins, death rates fall while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid growth.
In the third stage, birth rates fall to a low level, balancing low death rates and again leading to
population stability, offering greater possibilities for comfort and dignity than in stage one. It is
assumed that countries will move gradually from stage one to stage three. Today there are no
countries in stage one; all are either in stage two or stage three. However, this analysis concludes that
instead of progressing to stage three as expected, some countries are in fact falling back into stage
one as the historic fall in death rates is reversed, leading the world into a new demographic era.

National projections of population growth vary more widely than at any time in history. In some
countries, population has stabilized or is declining; but in others, population is projected to double or
even triple before stabilizing. In 32 countries, containing 14 percent of world population, population
growth has stopped. By contrast, Ethiopia's population of 62 million is projected to more than triple
to 213 million in 2050. Pakistan will go from 148 million to 357 million, surpassing the U.S. population
before 2050. Nigeria, meanwhile, is projected to go from 122 million today to 339 million, giving it
more people in 2050 than there were in all of Africa in 1950. The largest absolute increase is
anticipated for India, which is projected to add another 600 million by 2050, thus overtaking China as
the most populous country.

Incidence:
As recent experience with AIDS in Africa shows, some countries which have reduced their death rates
whilst birth rates remain high are simply overwhelmed when a new threat appears. While industrial
countries have held HIV infection rates among their adult populations under 1 percent or less, a 1998
World Health Organization survey reports that in Zimbabwe, for example, 26 percent of the adult
population is HIV positive. In Botswana it is 25 percent, Zambia 20 percent, Namibia 19 percent, and
Swaziland 18 percent. Barring a miracle, these societies will lose one fifth or more of their adult
population within the next decade from AIDS alone. These deaths will bring population growth to a
halt or even into decline, with high mortality trends more reminiscent of the Dark Ages than the bright
new millennium so many had hoped for.

New diseases are not the only threat to demographically fatigued countries. Because population
growth affects so many dimensions of a society, any of several different stresses can force a country
back into a primitive stage of development. For example, in many developing countries food supplies
are threatened by aquifer depletion. Recent growth in food production and population in India, a
country heavily dependent on irrigation, has been based partly on the unsustainable use of water.
Nationwide, withdrawals of underground water are at least double the rate of recharge and water
tables are falling by 1 to 3 meters per year. It is estimated that as India's aquifers are depleted, its
grain harvest could fall by as much as one fifth. In a country where food and population are
precariously balanced and which is adding 18 million people per year, such a huge drop in food output
could create economic chaos.

With reference to COVID 19: Discussed in the class.

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