ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K.

Mwangi
PRECIPITATION
Precipitation a general term for all forms of moisture reaching the earth’s surface from the clouds. Includes
rainfall, snowfall, frost, hail and dew. Rainfall and snowfall contribute most of the water but rainfall is the
most predominant and forms the major source of moisture especially in the tropics.
Rainfall may be classified into:
• Light rain – intensity - trace to 2.5 mm/hr.
• Moderate rain – intensity- 2.5 to 7.5 mm/hr.
• Heavy rain – >7.5 mm/hr.
Precipitation is one of the most important phases in the hydrologic cycle and is relatively easy to
measure compared to the other phases of the cycle. However, it exhibits tremendous variability in
time and space and quantifying this variability for design purposes is often a challenge.

Formation and occurrence:

Formation of precipitation requires lifting of an air mass in the atmosphere and its cooling through
condensation resulting in formation of clouds. However, for it to occur, the following must also be available:
• A Mechanism for cooling the air sufficiently to cause condensation and growth of droplets.
• Condensation nuclei around which cloud formation occurs (normally abundant in the atmosphere)
• A large-scale cooling mechanism which is normally achieved through lifting of the air mass.

These conditions may be observed simultaneously and can occur in a relatively short time. Water droplets go
through many condensation-evaporation cycles as they circulate, until they aggregate into large droplets
which then fall to the ground.

Types of precipitation
Convective precipitation: Occurs when the air near the ground surface is heated by the earth’s warm
surface, rises and then cools. As more water vapor is drawn upwards, the warm moisture laden air becomes
unstable resulting in vertical currents. Dynamic cooling then takes place causing condensation and
precipitation. Convective precipitation may be in the form of light showers or storms of extremely high
intensity that change rapidly and is typical of tropical regions e.g. the lake basin in Kenya.

Convective rainfall
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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Orographic precipitation
Results from mechanical lifting of moist horizontal air currents over natural barriers e.g. mountains. It is of
low intensity unless associated with convective action. Since mountains are fixed in direction, precipitation
falls on the same general location leading to high precipitation on the windward side and low precipitation
on the leeward side of the mountain. It is the most common form of precipitation in many parts of Kenya.

Orographic rainfall

Rainfall is the total liquid product of precipitation from the atmosphere as received and measured in a rain
gauge. Rainfall intensity is the amount of rain occurring in unit interval of time (mm/hr.).

MEASUREMENT OF RAINFALL
Rainfall is measured by distributing rain gauges throughout a watershed. It is measured as the
vertical depth of water that accumulates on a level surface during a given time interval if all the water
remained where it fell and no losses occurred. Measurement is made at the point of fall (hence point rainfall)
using rain gauges. Rain gauges should be adequate and properly distributed within a watershed to enable
collection of sufficient and reliable data. Rainfall measurement enable:
• Engineers to design runoff control structures i.e. storm drains, bridges, culverts etc.
• Scientists to carry out catchment hydrological modelling.
• Agriculturists to advice farmers on what to plant, where to plant when to plant and when to harvest.
Rainfall data is basic to WR planning and management. It can be used to extend runoff data in both time
and space by correlating it with runoff data because rainfall data is more easily obtained.

Location of rain gauges

Rain gauges are affected by wind patterns, eddies, tall structures etc. and hence should be located and
positioned properly which requires selection of a proper gauge site.

Requirements for a good rain gauge site:

• Site should be open and clear of all obstructions
• Distance between gauge and nearest high object should be at least twice the object’s height
• Gauge should be placed on a level ground to ensure that its mouth is horizontal
• In hilly areas, it should be placed on the hill top if a suitable level ground is not available
• Site should be shielded from strong winds to avoid formation of eddies around the gauge mouth
• A fence should be erected to protect the gauge from animal and human interference
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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
• Site should be easily accessible at all times and under all weather conditions
• Site should be representative of the area for which rainfall measurement is required

TYPES OF RAIN GAUGES

Non-recording gauges:
Manually measures total depth of rainfall caught by the gauge. Consists of a collector to intercept rainfall and
a receiver to collect and store rainfall until it is measured. The collector extends above the ground surface
while the receiver is fixed partially below ground surface with a capacity to hold extremes of rainfall within
24hrs. In remote areas storage gauges (totalizers) are used to accumulate rainfall caught (week, month,
season) before measurement. Useful in areas of poor accessibility and low data demand. Installed singly or as
part of a hydrometric station. Rainfall is measured daily at 9.00am and depends on location and exposure.

Figure 1: Components of a Standard Rain Gauge

Recording (automatic) gauges: Record rainfall over extended period of time in form of a pen trace on a clock
driven chart. Plot of cumulative rainfall is called mass curve of rainfall and gives rainfall amount, its duration
and intensity for the period. Examples are tipping bucket, weighing bucket and float type gauges. Suitable for
hilly inaccessible areas. Their installation is based on consideration of economic feasibility and need for short
duration rainfall intensities for use in hydraulic designs. At least 10% of a rain gauge network should be of the
recording type to enable determination of rainfall intensities. They should also be installed together with a
Standard Rain Gauge positioned at least 3m away to serve as a check of their records.

Weighing bucket type:

Consists of a receiver bucket supported by a spring balance (fig. 2). Catch from the funnel empties into a
bucket mounted on a spring balance. Weight of rain falling into the bucket depresses the spring balance
mechanism. This movement is transmitted to a recording pen through levers and links that record increased
weight of the bucket and its contents on a chart held by a clock-driven drum. This gives a trace of
accumulated rainfall with time (mass curve of rainfall). Slope of this curve at any point gives rainfall intensity.
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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi

Figure 2: Weighing type automatic rain gauge

Simple in mechanism. Disadvantage: (i) Effect of temperature and friction on weighing mechanism may
introduce errors (ii) Shrinkage/expansion of chart paper may distort time and scale of rainfall (iii) Failure of
reverse mechanism may result in loss of record (iv) Rainfall below bucket capacity is not recorded. Since it is
based on weight, it measures all forms of precipitation including snow.

Tipping bucket gauge:

Consists of two small buckets placed below a funnel fitted in a 30cm dia. receiver. The buckets are balanced
in an unstable equilibrium about a horizontal axis such that at any one time, only one bucket remains below
the funnel and with one bucket always higher than the other. Rainfall passes through the funnel to the higher
bucket. After a small amount of rain (0.25 mm) is received by the upper bucket, it becomes unstable and tips
to empty into a measuring cylinder placed below it. Meanwhile the other bucket comes to the upper position
and starts colleting rainfall. Tipping of the buckets actuates an electric circuit that causes the pen to make a
mark on the clock chart wrapped around a drum rotated by a clock-driven mechanism with each mark on the
chart corresponding to 0.25 mm of rainfall. By counting the number of marks and noting the time, both
intensity and amount of rainfall can be determined (fig. 3).

Figure 3: Tipping bucket type rain gauge

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Float type rain gauge:
Rainfall falling onto the receiver passes through the funnel and filter then collected in a float chamber. The
filter prevents entry of dust, debris, etc. into the float chamber that may clog it. The chamber contains a float
with a vertical stem fixed over it with a pen mounted on top. As the rain collects in the chamber, the float
rises and the pen moves on a chart fixed on a drum rotated by a clock-driven mechanism. The pen marks a
trace of the cumulative rainfall depth on the chart. The clock mechanism rotates the drum once every 24hrs.
Rewinding is needed once every week when the chart fitted round the drum is replaced. Rainfall is recorded
in the form of a rainfall mass curve, from which intensity and duration can be obtained (fig 4).

Figure 4: Float type rain gauge

Advantages of recording gauges

i. Rainfall is recorded automatically hence no need for a gauge reader.
ii. Gives total rainfall in a particular time interval.
iii. Suitable for remote inaccessible areas.
iv. Have higher capacities than non-recording gauges.
iv. Allows continuous measurement of rainfall.
V. Being automated, have less human error.

Disadvantages
i. Costly in comparison with non-recording gauges.
ii. If buckets are designed to tip at a convenient frequency for a particular intensity of rainfall, they
will tip too soon / too late for other intensities which may lead to errors.
iii. Subject to mechanical / electrical failures which may affect data quality.

Areal rainfall integrators: These measure intensity of a storm and the total rainfall over an area and are
suitable for large inaccessible catchments. Gives more accurate results compared with other methods.

Rainfall measurement by radar: These can measure rainfall within 10% accuracy of that recorded by a rain
gauge. Radar measurement is useful in inaccessible areas where there are no rain gauges and provide
continuous record of rainfall. Because of its high cost, this facility is currently not available in Kenya.
However, global rainfall (weather) is accessible to all by logging using location coordinates.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Challenges in rainfall measurement:
• All gauges must extend above the earth’s surface to avoid splash from surroundings areas. This
extension creates eddy currents around the gauge mouth that affect the amount of catch.
• Few sites are sufficiently sheltered from winds or sufficiently clear of obstructions as required.
• Rainfall measurement is not subject to check by repetition or duplication.
• Sample measured represents only a small part of rainfall occurring over a large area.

Errors in rainfall measurement:

• Initial catch (about 0.25mm) is used to moisten the funnel and inside surfaces of the gauge.
• Errors due to natural causes (evaporation, turbulence etc.).
• Gauge errors (leaks, inclined gauge mouth etc.)
• Observer errors (improper reading, spillage during transfer etc.)
Proper training is required to ensure uniformity of measurement procedure to facilitate comparison.

Gauge design and exposure has a bearing on the amount of catch and both factors must be considered when
obtaining a representative sample by minimizing gauge errors and avoiding obstructions of gauge mouth.

Example
30% of RG collector’s area is covered during a storm event by a plant leaf. If the total amount of rain
recorded was 25mm using a dip rod in a cylinder whose area is one-tenth the area of the collector, compute
the correct point rainfall in mm.
Solution
SRG collector diameter = 127mm (standard)
Area of collector = (πd2/4 = 3.14*1272) /4 = 12667.7mm2
Effective area = 70% = 8867.4 mm2 (Rest is obstructed)
Correct rainfall estimate is directly proportional to collector’s area
Collector’s area of 8867.4mm2 gives 25mm,
Collector’s area of 12667.7 mm2 will give 35.71mm if there are no obstructions.

ANALYSIS / INTERPRETATION OF RAINFALL DATA

Rainfall process is random in nature and difficult to predict with certainty for any given period in future.
Rainfall magnitudes are therefore estimated with some degree of probability. Analysis of rainfall data
collected over long periods helps to make reasonable probabilistic estimates of rainfall for use in hydraulic
design. Methods of analysis used and aspects of rainfall analyzed depend on potential use of the data.

Frequency analysis of rainfall data:

In engineering applications especially those concerned with floods, probability of occurrence of an
extreme event is important and is obtained from frequency analysis of available data. Rainfall is a
random process and when data is arranged in a chronological order it constitutes an annual time series.

Frequency of occurrence of a maximum /minimum rainfall is determined in order to predict future rainfall
trends for use in design of drainage and river protection works. Methods of determining frequency include:

Hazen William’s method: , Weibull’s method: where T = recurrence interval,

N = number of years of record and m = order number (rank). Weibull method is more commonly used.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
For determining maximum rainfall, data is arranged in a descending order while for determining minimum
rainfall it is arranged in an ascending order. Frequency analysis is used to determine the relationship
between the magnitude of an event and its probability of exceedance.
The probability P of an event being equaled / exceeded is given by: P  
m 
While frequency (T) is given
 N  1
 
by T  N  1 . This means T  1 orP  1
m P T
Example on frequency analysis:
Table 1: shows the record of annual 24hr. maximum rainfall of an area.
Estimate the maximum rainfalls with frequencies of 13 and 50 years.
Table 1:
Year 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
Rainfall (cm) 13.0 12.0 7.6 14.3 16.0 9.6 8.0 12.5 11.2 8.8 8.9

‘61 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
7.8 9.0 10.2 8.5 7.5 6.0 8.4 10.8 10.6 8.3 9.5

Solution:
• Arrange the data in a descending order and calculate both probability (P) and return periods (T).
• Plot a graph of rainfall magnitude against return period on a semi-log paper (rainfall on vertical axis)
• Draw a smooth curve through the resulting points.
• Solution: 13 years = 14.55cm and 50 years = 18.00cm.
 The curve can be extrapolated to obtain data outside the original range.

COMPUTATION OF AVERAGE RAINFALL DEPTH OVER A BASIN:

Rainfall measured by a gauge is point rainfall. Where there is only one gauge the rainfall is applied to the
whole basin. Where there is more than one-gauge, average rainfall depth is computed. Accurate
determination of average rainfall depth requires a large number of rain gauges spread throughout the basin.
If the gauges are evenly distributed in the watershed a simple arithmetic mean may suffice for an average
rainfall depth determination. If the distribution of gauges is uneven or precipitation is very variable, then a
weighted average is necessary and Thiessen and isohyetal methods are commonly used.

Arithmetic mean method:

Used where rain gauges are uniformly distributed and individual station values vary little from the mean
areal rainfall. In such case, average rainfall depth (Pav) is taken as the arithmetic mean of rainfall depths
of all stations. Sum of rainfall depths recorded at the stations is divided by the number of rain gauges:

Method is simple, gives good results especially in flat areas if gauges are uniformly distributed.
It is quick, adaptable to computer application, not very accurate though and rarely used in practice.

Thiessen Polygon method:

Rainfall values recorded at each station is given a weight depending on the area it represents within the basin
by assuming a linear variation of rainfall between stations. A gauge at any station is used for the proportion
of basin area nearest to it which eliminates errors due to non-uniform distribution of rainfall. Used where
gauges are few and more accurate than the arithmetic mean method. Involves the following procedure:
• Gauge positions are marked on a basin plan for which average rainfall depth is required.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
• Adjacent gauge stations are joined by straight lines. This divides the entire area into a series of
triangles (Fig. 5). Neighboring stations but outside the basin boundary are also included.
• Perpendicular bisectors are then drawn on lines connecting the stations to form polygons around
each station. The area of a particular polygon is nearer to the station contained therein than to any
other station thus it represents the area of influence of that gauge station.
• For determining average rainfall depth, basin boundary is taken as the outer limit of the Thiessen
polygon. Polygon areas are determined using a planimeter. Average rainfall depth is given by:

P1 A1  P2 A2  P3 A3             Pn An
PAV  Where A1, A2, An are Thiessen polygon
A1  A2  A3               An
areas representing stations which when summed up gives total basin area. P1 , P2 P3      Pn
A1
are the corresponding rainfall values. The ratio is Weightage factor or Thiessen constant.
A
Method ignores Orographic influences and hence is not suitable for mountainous areas. It is fixed for a given
gauge configuration and polygons must be re-constructed every time gauges are relocated / added. It uses of
gauges located a short distance from the basin boundary but their influence diminishes as the distance from
the boundary increases. The method does not allow variations due to altitudes or other factors.

Figure 5: Thiessen polygon method

Example:
Thiessen polygons constructed for a network of 10 rain gauge stations in a river basin yielded Thiessen
constants of 0.10,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.06 and 0.10. If rainfalls recorded at these gauges
during a cyclonic storm were 132, 114,162,138,207,156,135,158,168 and 150 respectively, determine the
average rainfall depth by arithmetic and Thiessen polygon methods and compare the results. Also determine
the volume of surface runoff at the basin outlet if 35% of the rainfall is lost through infiltration.
Take basin area as 5800km2.

Solution:
Arithmetic mean = 152mm. Thiessen polygon 149.08mm.
Runoff depth = 96.9mm. Runoff volume = 562.02Mm3
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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Isohyetal method: Also, a weighted average method is the most accurate of the three methods and takes
into account orographic effect of rainfall. Weighting is done by averaging rainfall between two consecutive
isohyets and multiplying by the area enclosed between them. Weightings are then summed up for the whole
basin and divided by basin area to obtain average rainfall depth (fig. 6). For the area between the last isohyet
and basin boundary, a suitable value of average depth is adopted, depending on the distance of the outside
isohyet from basin boundary. Isohyetal interval should be kept small to improve accuracy. If P1, P2..,. … Pn are
the isohyet values and A1, A2,.. .An-1 are the inter-Isohyetal areas, average rainfall depth is given by:

Accuracy of the method depends on the skill of the analyst plotting the isohyets. It is slow, laborious and
cannot be easily adopted to computer application. The procedure is as follows:

• Locate all rainfall stations on a base map and indicate rainfall values.
• Draw isohyets by proportioning distances between gauges according to differences in rainfall.
• Calculate the mean rainfall for the area corresponding to each isohyet.
• Calculate the fraction of catchment area under each isohyet, multiply by the mean rainfall for that
area and sum up to get average rainfall for the basin.
Method can be used to make adjustments for variations in station altitudes due to orographic influences.

Figure 6: Isohyetal method

Choice of method to be used depends on:

• Network of rain gauge stations in the basin.
• Basin size and topography.
• Degree of accuracy required.
Example:
Analysis of a storm yielded the following information. Calculate the average depth of rainfall.
Isohyetal interval (mm) 70-80 80-90 90-100 100-110 110-120 120-130
2
Area between isohyets (km ) 10 85 113 98 136 67

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Solution:
Isohyetal interval Area between isohyets Average value of isohyets Area * average value of isohyets
70-80 10 75 750
80-90 85 85 7225
90-100 113 95 10735
100-110 98 105 10290
110-120 136 115 15640
120-130 67 125 8375
Total 509 53,015
Average depth of rainfall = 53015  104.16mm
509
Example
A dam is built at a basin outfall where a statutory minimum discharge of 0.1m3/s is to be maintained in the
river downstream throughout the year. Assess the available water supply per year (m3). Assume the drainage
basin to be water tight and evaporation losses to be 400mm/year. Rainfall measurements are as in Table 1.
Table 1:
Rain gauge No. 1 2 3 4 5 6
Rainfall (mm) 2052 1915 1969 1723 1640 1510
Thiessen Polygon area (km2) 7.8 8.3 10.2 11.5 5.4 6.8

Solution:
Basin area = summation of all areas = 50km2
Assessment is by subtracting basin outputs from inputs:

Basin input (rainfall): Areal mean depth = = 1798mm

Volume per year = Area x mean depth = 89.9 x106 m3
Basin output: Minimum downstream release per year = 0.1x60x60x24x365 = 3.1536x106 m3
Evaporation loss per year = 0.4x50x106 = 20x106 m3
Available water supply = input – losses = 89.9 x10 m - 3.1536x10 m - 20x106 m3
6 3 6 3

= 66.7464x106m3

Since catch area of a gauge is small compared to areal extent of storms, to get a representative picture of a
storm over a basin the number of rain gauges should be kept large. However, this is restricted by topography,
accessibility and economic considerations. Optimum number of gauges required depends on intended use of
data. To obtain accurate rainfall data, WMO recommends the following gauge densities per region:

• Flat regions of Temperate, Mediterranean and Tropical zones

Ideal – 1 station for 600 – 900km2. Acceptable -1 station for 900 – 3000km2
• Mountainous regions of temperate, Mediterranean and Tropical zones
Ideal – 1 station for 100 – 250km2. Acceptable 1 station for 25 – 1000km2
• Arid and polar zones: 1 station for 1,500 – 10,000km2 depending on feasibility.
The above network density ensures that all gauges have almost equal Thiessen weights.

Rainfall records are fundamental in hydrological studies since they are required in:
 Analysis of storms over basins.
 Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) analysis.
 Determination of design floods.
 Stream flow forecasting.
 Reservoir regulation.
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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
RAIN GAUGE NETWORK
Network density is the ratio of basin area to total number of rain gauges. It gives the average area served by
each gauge. A network should give a representative picture of areal distribution of rainfall. Network density
varies from country to country and may vary from region to region within the same country. Optimal number
of gauges required to achieve an assigned percentage error in the estimation of mean annual rainfall is
obtained statistically as:
2
C 
N   v  Where N = optimal number of rain gauges required.
  
 = allowable degree of error in the estimation of mean annual rainfall (say 10%).
C v = Coefficient of variation of rainfall at the existing number of stations m in %.
If there are m stations in the basin recording P1, P2, P3.............. Pm in a known time, the coefficient of variation
C v is given by:
100*  m 1
Cv  Where  m 1 is standard deviation, P is mean annual rainfall.  is taken as 10% (or as given).
P
From statistics

Mean precipitation P=
1
m
 P 
m
1 i

 m P P
1 i   
2

Standard deviation  m 1 =  Pi = magnitude of precipitation in the i th

station
 m 1 
 
If N>m, then additional stations are required. These should be placed such that together with existing
gauges they are evenly distributed over the basin. If N<m then no additional gauges are required.

Example:
Table 2: shows annual rainfall values recorded at 6 rain gauge stations in a basin.
Station name A B C D E F
Rainfall amount (cm) 82.6 102.90 180.3 110.3 98.8 136.7

Calculate the optimum number of rain gauges required in the basin.

Take allowable error in the estimation of mean annual rainfall as 10%.
Solution

N = 9. Additional gauges required = (9-6) = 3.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
PRESENTATION OF RAINFALL DATA

Hyetograph and mass curve of rainfall:

A rainfall hyetograph is a plot of rainfall intensity of a series of rainfalls occurring in a basin against time
(fig.8) To plot a hyetograph, a convenient time interval is chosen and readings of accumulated rainfall read
from the rainfall mass curve. Chosen hyetograph interval depends on intended purpose; short durations for
urban drainage designs and long durations for flood flow computations in large basins. Area under the
hyetograph represents total rainfall received in the period. Useful for hydrological analysis of basins,
estimation of design storms for flood prediction, runoff estimation and derivation of unit hydrographs.

Figure 8: A storm Hyetograph

A rainfall mass curve is a plot of accumulated rainfall against time plotted in a chronological order. Slopes of
rainfall mass curves give rainfall intensities at various times (fig. 9). Recording gauges give rainfall mass
curves directly. Rainfall mass curves are useful in extracting information on the duration and magnitude of a
storm. In non-recording gauges, it is plotted from knowledge of the beginning and end of a storm and
distribution of total rainfall depth over various periods according to rainfall mass curves of nearby recording
gauges. Intensities at various time intervals can also be obtained from the slope of the mass curve.

Figure 9: Determination of rainfall intensity from a mass curve.

Interpolation of missing rainfall data:
Rainfall records missing for certain periods may be filled using mathematical approaches. This requires
concurrent records of at least three nearby stations and the mean annual rainfall for the four stations.

The following two cases can arise and are dealt with separately:
(a) Mean annual rainfall at each of the stations (A, B, C) is within 10% of the mean annual rainfall for the
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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
station with missing data (X)
A simple average of rainfall values of the index stations is taken:

(b) Mean annual rainfall at each of the index stations differs from that of station (X) by more than
10%. Normal ratio method is used:

Where N is mean annual rainfall and P is rainfall at the stations.

This formula applies where there are three index stations.
When there are M index stations (M > 3):

Example 1:
Compute the storm rainfall at station A given the following data:
Rain gauge station A 1 2 3
Daily rainfall (mm) ? 125 145 169
Normal annual rainfall (mm) 1150 1250 1450 1300

Solution:
First compute maximum normal annual rainfall departure from the value at station A.
(1450-1150)/1150 = 26% which is more than 10%, hence normal ratio method is applicable.
Substitute NA=1150, P1=125, N1=1250, P2=145, N2=1450, P3=169 and N3=1300 and solve for PA.

Example 2:
Rain gauge X malfunctioned for part of a month during which storms of 84, 70 and 96mm occurred at three
nearby stations A, B and C. If the normal annual rainfalls at stations X, A, B and C are respectively 770,
882,736 and 944 mm, estimate the missing storm rainfall at station X.

= = 75mm

(3) Comparison method- If rainfall record of station (X) is missing for a long period e.g. a month, it can be
estimated by comparing the mean annual rainfall of station X with that of a nearby station A with full record.

Where PX and PA are the rainfalls of stations X and A for the missing period and NX and NA are the mean
annual rainfalls for stations X and A respectively. From here rainfall record Px can be computed.

(4) Isohyetal map method

An Isohyetal map is drawn from data of various gauge stations and rainfall at station X estimated from the
two isohyets between which the station lies (Fig. 10). In the example below station X rainfall is 5.3 cm. The
method is suitable for estimating missing data of a station X due to a particular storm.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi

Figure 10: Isohyetal method of estimating missing station rainfall

Analysis of rainfall data
Rainfall data should be interpreted correctly to avoid wrong conclusions. This is not always possible due to
breaks in record and inconsistencies in data. Rainfall data should be checked for consistency before use.
Continuity: Rainfall records suffer breaks because of non-observation of rainfall or equipment failure. Missing
records are approximated with reference to nearby stations evenly spaced around the station with missing
data with Normal rainfall used as a standard of comparison.
If conditions relevant to the recording of a rain gauge have undergone a profound change during the period
of record, inconsistency would arise in the station’s rainfall data from the time the change took place.
Common causes of inconsistency in rainfall data are:
(i) Shifting of a gauge from an existing location to a new location.
(ii) Neighborhood of the gauge undergoing a profound change due to growth of trees, tall buildings, cutting
of nearby forest or change in wind pattern.
(iii) Occurrence of observation error from a certain period.
(iv) Use of different instruments and observation techniques.
(v) Gauge being faulty for from a certain period of time.
(vi) Change in the ecosystem due to natural calamities such as forest fires, landslides etc.
The double-mass curve technique is used to check for consistency in rainfall data and to correct it.

TESTING AND ADJUSTING RAINFALL RECORDS:

Accuracy and consistency of station records suspected to contain discrepancies is checked using the double
mass curve technique which compares accumulated annual station rainfall values with concurrent
accumulated mean rainfall values for a group of neighboring (base) stations. Records that deviate from the
acceptable trend on a double mass curve are corrected by multiplying them with a correction factor (ratio of
slopes of adjusted and unadjusted curves). The technique enables estimation of missing data and
extrapolation of data beyond the period of record. Data used should cover a long period and is normally
arranged in a reverse chronological order, starting with the most recent ones (see example). This is because it
is required to adjust inconsistent old station data to make it consistent and homogeneous with respect to its
present condition. A recently established station record may also need to be extrapolated to give estimates
for years before it became operational. From the calculated slopes S0 and Sc (fig. 11):

Where
Pc and P0 are the corrected and original rainfall values at the suspect station at any time while Sc and S0 are
the corrected and original slopes of the double mass-curve.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
In this way, the older records are brought into the regime of the station. The more homogeneous the base
station records are, the more accurate will be the corrected values at the station in question.

Note: A change in slope is usually taken as significant only if it persists for more than 5 years and this is when
a double mass curve analysis should be applied.

Figure 11: An example of inconsistent rainfall record

Example:
Annual rainfalls at station X and average annual rainfalls at 25 nearby stations are given below in cm.
Year Annual rainfall Average rainfall of Year Annual rainfall Average rainfall of
at station X 25 nearby stations at station X 25 nearby stations
1941 163 135 1959 112 123
1942 119 111 1960 95 142
1943 121 124 1961 106 92
1944 129 111 1962 81 91
1945 126 123 1963 116 131
1946 120 90 1964 112 104
1947 153 138 1965 80 97
1948 172 119 1966 88 111
1949 127 108 1967 85 114
1950 108 107 1968 90 92
1951 126 111 1969 120 146
1952 190 142 1970 72 93
1953 112 112 1971 113 138
1954 97 99 1972 82 112
1955 86 93 1973 116 117
1956 111 131 1974 112 152
1957 68 92 1975 73 90
1958 88 142 1976 74 104

Question:
• Check the consistency of data at station X and determine when regime change occurred.
• Compute the mean annual rainfall at station X at its present location for the first 36 years without
adjustment and then with data adjusted for regime change.
• Compute the adjusted annual rainfall values at station X for the adjusted period.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Solution:
Year Annual rainfall Cumulative annual Average annual rainfall Cumulative average annual
at station X rainfall at station X for 25 nearby stations rainfall for 25 nearby stations.
1976 74 74 104 104
1975 73 147 90 194
1974 122 269 152 346
1973 116 385 117 463
1972 82 467 112 575
1971 113 580 138 713
1970 72 652 93 806
1969 120 772 146 952
1968 90 862 92 1044
1967 85 947 114 1158
1966 88 1035 111 1269
1965 80 1115 97 1366
1964 112 1227 104 1470
1963 116 1343 131 1601
1962 81 1424 91 1692
1961 106 1530 92 1784
1960 95 1625 142 1926
1959 112 1737 123 2049
1958 88 1825 142 2191
1957 68 1893 92 2283
1956 111 2004 131 2414
1955 86 2090 93 2507
1954 97 2187 99 2606
1953 112 2299 112 2718
1952 190 2489 142 2860
1951 126 2615 111 2971
1950 108 2723 107 3078
1949 127 2850 108 3186
1948 172 3022 119 3305
1947 153 3175 138 3443
1946 120 3295 90 3533
1945 126 3421 123 3656
1944 129 3550 111 3767
1943 121 3671 124 3891
1942 119 3790 111 4002
1941 163 3953 135 4137

From the plot (figure 12):

• Slope of the curve is not uniform throughout so station record is not consistent.
• Break in slope (regime change) occurs in 1953
• Data prior to 1953 requires adjustment to be in line with current position.
• Total rainfall for 36 years before adjustment = 3953cm. Mean = 109.8cm
Cumulative rainfall for 36 years after correction = 3480cm. Mean = 96.7cm
• Slope of adjusted curve CB’ = 0.85. For unadjusted curve CB = 1.17
• Correction factor = 0.85/1.17 = 0.7265.
• This is used to give adjusted rainfall values at station X for the period 1941- 1948 as an example.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Year Observed rainfall Adjusted rainfall at
at station X (P) station X (p’)
1941 163 118.4
1942 119 86.5
1943 121 87.9
1944 129 93.7
1945 126 91.5
1946 120 87.2
1947 153 111.2
1948 172 125.0

Figure 12: Application of the double mass curve technique

Adjusted values can also be read directly from the extrapolated mass curve.
Exercise:
Check the consistency of precipitation data for station E using the double mass curve technique.
Year A B C D E
1926 99.4 114.3 76.7 93.4 82.1
1927 98.9 96.3 102.5 77.2 70.2
1928 105.3 120.7 101.1 105.0 83.8
1929 103.5 86.5 81.2 99.8 74.0
1930 78.9 112.8 90.5 90.8 59.4
1931 138.9 133.2 155.6 91.5 96.0
1932 120.3 100.2 119.9 96.5 115.6
1933 99.9 79.3 81.9 67.2 75.9
1934 113.5 104.2 90.3 81.0 117.0
1935 112.2 120.3 76.8 103.9 95.2
1936 81.6 98.7 88.5 78.3 107.1
1937 114.7 110.3 97.9 110.4 99.8
1938 115.1 97.4 108.2 126.6 126.7
1939 124.4 101.0 124.6 102.7 117.1
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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
1940 118.1 124.2 119.7 97.7 266.3
1941 91.7 79.8 80.4 86.1 86.0
1942 114.7 95.4 131.0 118.3 119.0

DESIGN STORM
A design event is used as a basis for designing a hydraulic structure. It is presumed that the
structure will function properly if it can accommodate the design event at full capacity. However,
the structure would fail to function as intended if the magnitude of the design event is exceeded.
However, for economic reasons, some risk of failure is allowed in selecting the design event. This
risk is usually tied to the return period of the design event where return period is defined as the
average number of years between occurrences of a hydrologic event with a certain magnitude /
greater. The inverse of return period  1  P  represents the probability that this magnitude will be
T 
 
exceeded in any given year. For example, if a 25-year event (event with a return period of 25 years)
 0.044% probability that the design event will be
1
is used as the design event, then there is
25
exceeded in any given year. Statistical methods are used to analyze historical records to determine
the return periods of hydrologic events with different magnitudes (discussed later).

A design storm is characterized in terms of return period, average rainfall intensity (or depth),
rainfall duration, time and spatial distribution of rainfall.

INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY (IDF) CURVE

The intensity of a storm decreases with increase in its duration. Further, a storm of any duration will have a
high intensity if its return period is long. For a given duration, storms of higher intensity are rare than storms
of lower intensity. In many design problems related to runoff disposal and erosion control, it is important to
know rainfall intensities of different durations and their return periods. The interdependency between
intensity (i cm/hr.), duration (D hrs.) and return period (T yrs.) is commonly expressed in the general form:
kT x Where a and k are constants while x and n are exponents for a given catchment.
i
( D  a) n

Figure 13: Variation of intensity with duration and frequency

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Statistics of historical rainfall events (intensity, duration and frequency) are used to design storm water
facilities, flood control structures etc. If data from a recording gauge is available for 30-50 years, frequency of
occurrence of given maximum intensities can be determined (by frequency analysis) and IDF curves drawn
on a normal paper (figure 13 above).

IDF curves give the probability of a given rainfall intensity and duration expected to occur at a particular
location. Although standards have been developed for designing CE structures e.g. culverts based on IDF
curves, changes in extreme rainfall events require revision / upgrading of those standards. A dam designed
to control a 100-year flood event provides less protection if intensity and duration of the flood increases.

Rainfall intensity of desired frequency can be computed from IDF curves for the duration equal to the time of
concentration (tc) of the basin. The chosen frequency should reflect economics of flood damage reduction (1-
10 years for rural areas and longer for urban areas). In urban drainage design, determination of rainfall
events to be used in the rational formula is based on IDF curves already drawn for the concerned site which
are readily available especially for urban areas.

Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) Curves:

In the design of water resources structures, information on the areal spread of rainfall within a basin is often
required together with the highest rainfall expected which is obtained from DAD analysis. Because a storm
event starts with a heavy downpour which gradually reduces as time passes, rainfall depth is not proportional
to storm duration. From figure 14 a storm of a shorter duration has a smaller depth and as the area increases
depth decreases. DAD analysis of storms helps to determine the largest average depth of storms of different
durations essential in determining runoff from basins required to design culverts, reservoirs and dams. A DAD
curve expresses graphically the relationship between progressively decreasing average rainfall depth over a
progressively increasingly area from the “eye” of the storm outwards for a given duration of rainfall.

Figure 14: Depth – Area – Duration curves

Definition:
Recurrence interval (return period) of a rainfall of certain magnitude is the average length of time expected
to elapse between the rainfall events of equal or greater magnitude.

Application of IDF curves in the rational formula

The Rational formula where Qp is peak discharge (m3/s), C is runoff coefficient (dimensionless)
reflecting soil type, topography, surface roughness, vegetation and land use, i is rainfall intensity (mm/hr.)
obtained from IDF curves while A is catchment area (km2). C values are obtained from published data.

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 ECE 2402: HYDROLOGY I LECTURE NOTES Dr. J.K. Mwangi
Basic assumptions in the use of the rational formula:
• Rainfall intensity is constant for a time interval equal to the time of concentration (tc) which is taken
as the time for water to flow from the most remote part of the basin to the outlet.
• Maximum runoff rate equal to a certain rainfall intensity occurs after elapse of tc, when the entire
area is contributing at the outlet and continues at a constant rate until there is a change in rainfall
intensity.
• Runoff coefficient C is constant during the entire storm.
• Contributing basin area does not change during the storm.
The rational formula is most applicable in urban and sub-urban areas.

Stepwise procedure of determining peak flow rates using the rational formula:
• Estimate time of concentration tc of the drainage basin by an appropriate formula e.g. Kirpich

equation. Where L= maximum length of water travel (m), S = slope

(H/L) where H = is the difference in elevation between the remotest point on the basin and the
outlet (m) and L= basin length (m).

Note that tc is taken to be equal to the duration of the storm.

• Estimate runoff coefficient C from standard tables or any other recommended source.
• Select a return period T (from IDF curves) and find storm intensity i corresponding to tc on the
selected curve. Methods of computing i from the equation have been developed for some regions.
• Compute Qp, now that C, I, and A are known.
• From the computed QP, the desired sizes of culverts, storm drains etc. can be computed.

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP): is the estimated limiting value of precipitation that can occur at a
given location in a given duration. Consequently, it is the analytically estimated greatest depth of
precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible and reasonably characteristic of a geographical
region at a certain time of the year. It is the amount of precipitation over a region which cannot be exceeded
and is obtained by studying all past storms in the region and maximizing them for the most critical
atmospheric conditions. From an operational point of view, PMP is defined as that rainfall over a region
which would produce a flood flow with virtually no chance of being exceeded. However, the PMP concept is
not entirely reliable because it cannot be accurately estimated and its probability of occurrence is unknown.
However, it has been found useful because of public safety concerns for projects such as large dams. If PMP
for a basin can be estimated, it can be used to provide an estimate of the probable maximum flood (PMF)
after adjustments for infiltration losses etc. and which can used for design of spillways.

Standard Project Storm (SPS)

Is the storm which is reasonably capable of occurring over the basin under consideration, and is generally the
heaviest rainstorm, which has ever occurred in the region of the basin during the period of rainfall records.
It is not maximized for the most critical atmospheric conditions but may be transposed from an adjacent
region to the catchment under consideration.

A common use of rainfall data is in the assessment of probabilities or return periods of given rainfall at a
given location. Such data can then be used to assess flood discharges of given return periods through
modelling or some empirical system and can thus be applied in schemes of flood alleviation or forecasting
and for the design of bridges and culverts.

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