sensors
Article
A New Approach to the Degradation Stage Prediction of
Rolling Bearings Using Hierarchical Grey Entropy and a Grey
Bootstrap Markov Chain
Li Cheng 1 , Wensuo Ma 2, *
Citation: Cheng, L.; Ma, W.; Gao, Z.
A New Approach to the Degradation
Stage Prediction of Rolling Bearings
Using Hierarchical Grey Entropy and
a Grey Bootstrap Markov Chain.
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082. https://
doi.org/10.3390/s23229082
Academic Editor: Steven Chatterton
Received: 9 October 2023
Revised: 26 October 2023
Accepted: 3 November 2023
Published: 9 November 2023
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082. https://doi.org/10.3390/s23229082
and Zuobin Gao 2
1 School of Information Engineering, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang 471023, China;
9945505@haust.edu.cn
2 School of Mechatronics Engineering, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang 471003, China;
gaozuobin@haust.edu.cn
* Correspondence: mawensuo@haust.edu.cn
Abstract: Degradation stage prediction, which is crucial to monitoring the health condition of rolling
bearings, can improve safety and reduce maintenance costs. In this paper, a novel degradation stage
prediction method based on hierarchical grey entropy (HGE) and a grey bootstrap Markov chain
(GBMC) is presented. Firstly, HGE is proposed as a new entropy that measures complexity, considers
the degradation information embedded in both lower- and higher-frequency components and extracts
the degradation features of rolling bearings. Then, the HGE values containing degradation infor-
mation are fed to the prediction model, based on the GBMC, to obtain degradation stage prediction
results more accurately. Meanwhile, three parameter indicators, namely the dynamic estimated
interval, the reliability of the prediction result and dynamic uncertainty, are employed to evaluate the
prediction results from different perspectives. The estimated interval reflects the upper and lower
boundaries of the prediction results, the reliability reflects the credibility of the prediction results and
the uncertainty reflects the dynamic fluctuation range of the prediction results. Finally, three rolling
bearing run-to-failure experiments were conducted consecutively to validate the effectiveness of the
proposed method, whose results indicate that HGE is superior to other entropies and the GBMC
surpasses other existing rolling bearing degradation prediction methods; the prediction reliabilities
are 90.91%, 90% and 83.87%, respectively.
Keywords: rolling bearing; degradation stage prediction; hierarchical grey entropy; grey bootstrap
Markov chain
1. Introduction
Rolling bearings are widely used in rotating machinery, and the performance degra-
dation stage prediction of rolling bearings has attracted increasing attention [1–3]. The
degradation forms of rolling bearings are diverse after experiencing long-term service,
especially under harsh working and operating conditions. Such unexpected damage can
make the mechanical system break down and result in enormous economic losses. There-
fore, to maintain the safe and reliable operation of mechanical systems and keep a low
downtime, it is of practical significance to predict the performance degradation stages of
rolling bearings [4,5].
As their vibration signal characteristics are closely related to the physical structure of a
rolling bearing, the vibration signal often contains abundant information about the bearing
performance status and is sensitive to early weak failure and sudden failure [6,7]. Therefore,
vibration-signal-based processing techniques are some of the current commonly used
technical methods in rolling bearing degradation stage prediction. Degradation feature
extraction is the key point that restricts the quality of prediction models, which require
a strong dynamic response ability to describe the change in performance degradation
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sensors
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 2 of 35

degree [8]. However, the vibration signals of early faults in rolling bearings are very weak
and are accompanied by strong background noise. In addition, the vibration signals of
rolling bearings are nonlinear and non-stationary [9]. For this reason, traditional linear
methods (e.g., time-domain-based analysis methods, frequency-domain-based analysis
methods and time–frequency-domain-based analysis methods) cannot perform accurate
extraction of rolling bearing degradation features. Therefore, developing a method that
can maximize useful information without loss and perform the excellent extraction of
degradation feature information hidden in vibration signals has been one of the critical
challenges confronted by scholars in this field in recent years.
The entropy-based nonlinear dynamic method is one of the most powerful tools
to detect the dynamic characteristics of time series [10–12]. Entropy is a material state
parameter that reflects the irreversibility of spontaneous processes and is derived from
the second law of thermodynamics. Shannon borrowed the concept of thermodynamics
and called the average amount of information after eliminating redundancy in information
“information entropy” [13], developing a mathematical expression to calculate information
entropy. Kolmogorov and his student Sinai developed K-S entropy [14]. This research laid
a solid theoretical foundation for the great progress of entropy theory.
In order to overcome the low computational efficiency of traditional nonlinear dynamic
methods, Pincus proposed approximate entropy [15] (ApEn) to evaluate the complexity
of a system. Sample entropy [16] (SE), proposed by Richman, is closer to the theoretical
value than approximate entropy. Bandt proposed permutation entropy [17] (PE), which
is more widely applicable. Costa introduced the concept of multiscale entropy [18] (ME)
to address the complex temporal fluctuations inherent in physiological control systems
that are not considered in single-scale analyses of health. However, the coarse-grained
procedure used in ME essentially represents linear smoothing, which only captures low-
frequency components using the averaging technique and ignores degradation information
hidden in the high-frequency components [19]. Recently, Jiang et al. [20] put forward the
concept of hierarchical entropy (HE) to evaluate the complexity of a time series, which
proves to be an efficient method in considering the low-frequency and high-frequency
components of time series. Compared with ME, the advantage of HE lies in the fact that
it can reveal the inherent degradation characteristics of rolling bearing vibration signals
in both low-frequency and high-frequency components by analyzing the complexity of
different nodes, which indicates that it can be used to extract more comprehensive and
accurate degradation feature information.
Due to the superiority of quantifying the uncertainty and dynamic change for a given
time series, many entropy-based algorithms have been applied in the degradation feature
extraction of rolling bearings. For instance, Wang et al. [21] proposed a degradation feature
extraction technique based on equalization symbol sequence entropy. Song et al. [22]
proposed a new nonlinear dynamic analysis method called refined composite multiscale
amplitude-aware permutation entropy to extract features from bearing life data. Rai
et al. [23] used multiscale fuzzy entropy as a fault feature that formed probability distribu-
tions, after which the Jensen–Renyi divergence technique was applied, which discriminates
the probability distribution of degraded multiscale entropy feature vectors against healthy
multiscale entropy feature vectors to formulate the desired health indicator. Li et al. [24]
proposed a single-feature extraction method based on slope entropy and a double-feature
extraction method based on slope entropy combined with permutation entropy. Chen
et al. [25] proposed a novel method of fault feature extraction called hierarchical dispersion
entropy.
In this paper, a new approach called hierarchical grey entropy (HGE) is first proposed
to extract the degradation features of rolling bearings. HGE considers the degradation
information embedded in both lower- and higher-frequency components. The lower-
and higher-frequency components are generated using the moving-averaging procedure
and moving-difference procedure in HGE, respectively. Therefore, HGE can provide a
comprehensive evaluation of irregularity and uncertainty for a given time series.
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 3 of 35

In general, the process of rolling bearing degradation stage prediction contains three
essential steps, data acquisition, degradation feature extraction and prediction model con-
struction, and the latter two are the first priorities [26]. Therefore, after obtaining the
degradation features, another important step is degradation stage prediction. Nowadays,
machine learning is the most commonly used prediction model, which is because of its
strong ability of nonlinear fitting [27,28]. A variety of machine learning approaches have
been proposed to predict bearing performance. Gao et al. [29] proposed a prediction
method of rolling bearing operational reliability based on isometric mapping and a nonho-
mogeneous cuckoo search–least squares support vector machine. Che et al. [30] proposed
an intelligent fault prediction model based on gate recurrent units and hybrid autoencoders.
Wu et al. [31] proposed a staged prediction method based on the regularized learning
machine to predict remaining useful life of the bearing with high accuracy and speed. Xu
et al. [32] proposed a remaining useful life prediction method of rolling bearing combining
convolutional autoencoder networks and the status degradation model. Lan et al. [33]
proposed a self-checking long- and short-term memory prediction model for predicting
the performance degradation trend of bearings. Shang et al. [34] proposed an automated
prediction technique based on a deep learning network for an end-to-end remaining useful
life prediction of rolling bearings.
The research based on machine learning has achieved better results in the performance
prediction of rolling bearings. However, machine learning methods are used under the
condition that the sufficient samples are available, which is difficult to meet in degradation
stage prediction of rolling bearings [35]. Grey prediction theories [36] have been proposed
concerning specialties for a smaller number of sample attempts to explore development
laws utilizing the mining of the internal regulation of data series, but these are still subject to
lower prediction accuracy and higher time complexity. In this work, a new approach called
the grey bootstrap Markov chain (GBMC) for rolling bearing degradation stage prediction
is proposed through the combination of grey prediction theory, bootstrap method [37] and
Markov chains [38]. The grey prediction model and the Markov chain are used to obtain the
predicted value of the degradation stage, while the bootstrap method is used to establish a
large sample prediction sequence of the degradation stage. Afterwards, the estimated true
value is obtained from the statistical histogram of the large sample prediction sequence.
At the same time, the dynamic estimation interval, prediction reliability and dynamic
uncertainty are used to characterize the evolution trends of the performance degradation
stage of rolling bearing.
To sum up, the novelties and contributions of this paper are as follows:
(1) HGE, overcoming the lack of high-frequency components in MGE analysis, is pro-
posed to measure the complexity of time series. The experimental analysis of the
noise signals and the rolling bearing vibration signals confirm that, compared to HSE
and HFE, HGE has the advantage of lower data length requirement. Meanwhile, the
degradation stage curves, obtained via HGE, are more consistent with real nonlinear
dynamic systems.
(2) In view of the advantages of grey model, bootstrap method and Markov chain,
the GBMC is presented for the degradation stage predictions of rolling bearings.
Experimental analysis of the whole lifetime vibration data show that GBMC is superior
to the GB model and AR method.
(3) Three parameter indicators are introduced to evaluate the prediction results from
different perspectives. An experimental analysis shows that the estimated interval
reflects the upper and lower boundaries of the prediction results, the reliability reflects
the credibility of the prediction results and the uncertainty reflects the dynamic
fluctuation range of the prediction results.
The rest of this article is organized as follows. The theory of HGE is developed in
Section 2. Section 3 presents the theory of GBMC. Section 4 shows the flowchart of the
proposed method for degradation stage prediction of rolling bearings. Section 5 validates
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 4 of 35

the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method through three experimental
examples and contrastive analysis. In Section 6, conclusions are provided.

2. Hierarchical Grey Entropy

2.1. Grey Entropy
For a given time series of N points, {y1 , y2 , . . ., yt , . . ., yN }, t = 1, 2, . . ., N. The grey
entropy (GE) can be defined as follows [39]:
Step 1. Reconstruct the time series into a series of phase orbits with embedding
dimension q as expressed in Equation (1).
 
y1 y2 ... yG
 y2 y3 ... y G +1 
(1)
 
 .. .. .. 
. . ... . 
yq y q +1 ... y G + q −1

where G = N − q + 1.
Each column in the matrix can be viewed as a phase point vector Yq (i), which can be
expressed as
Y q ( i ) = y i , y i +1 , . . . , y i + q −1


(2)
where i = 1, 2, . . ., G.
Step 2. Calculate the grey relational degree that indicates the similarity degree between
the comparative sequences (Yq (i) and Yq (j)). The grey relational degree is defined as
the following:
Yq (i) and Yq (j) are firstly normalized to obtain the new sequence as
 
X q (i ) = x1i , x2i , . . . , xki , . . . , xqi (3)

where x1 i = yi /yi = 1, xq i = yi+q−1 /yi , k = 1, 2, . . ., q.

 
j j j j
X q ( j ) = x1 , x2 , . . . , x k , . . . , x q (4)

where x1 j = yj /yj = 1, xq j = yj+q−1 /yj .

Given the similarity tolerance e, e ∈ (0,1], the grey relational coefficient that indicates
the closeness between Xq (i) and Xq (j) is defined as

ij αmin + e·αmax
δk = ij
(5)
αk + e·αmax

where
ij j
αk = xki − xk (6)

j
αmin = min xki − xk (7)

j
αmax = max xki − xk (8)

We define the grey relational degree as

q
1
q k∑
q ij
µij (e) = µ( X q (i ), X q ( j)) = δk (9)
=1
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 5 of 35

Step 3. The function θ q (e) is defined as

N −q N − q +1
!
1 1
∑ ∑
q q
θ (e) = µij (e) (10)
N−q i =1
N − q j=1,j6=i

Similarly, the function θ q+1 (e) for another given embedding dimension q + 1 can be
defined as
N −q N − q +1
!
1 1
N − q i∑ N − q j=∑
q +1 q +1
θ (e) = µij (e) (11)
=1 1,j6=i

Step 4. The GE can be calculated as expressed in Equation (12):

 
GE(q, e) = lim ln θ q (e) − ln θ q+1 (e) (12)
N →∞

The GE (q, e) of the original sequence is defined as the negative natural logarithm of
the deviation of θ q from θ q+1 . When the length N of time series is finite, GE (q, e) can be
calculated as expressed in Equation (13):

GE(q, e) = ln θ q (e) − ln θ q+1 (e) (13)

The physical meaning of GE is the negative natural logarithm of the conditional

probability that two vectors similar for q points remain similar for the next q + 1 points, and
the vectors’ similarity is determined by the grey relational degree. Physically, the smaller
the GE, the lower the complexity of the time series, and the time series is treated as a
low-complexity dynamical system that exhibits deterministic or periodic phenomena. The
larger the GE, the higher the complexity of the time series, and the time series is treated as a
high-complexity dynamical system that exhibits chaotic, stochastic or irregular phenomena.

2.2. Multiscale Grey Entropy

Based on the calculation processing of GE, multiscale grey entropy (MGE) can be
calculated as follows.
MGE is defined as the GE of time series over different scales. For a discrete time series
with length N: {yt , t = 1, 2, . . ., N}, given scale factor λmax , several coarse-grained time series
can be constructed as  
Y λ = y1λ , y2λ , . . . , yiλ , . . . , yU
λ
(14)

where λ = 1, 2, . . ., λmax , U = N/λ, i = 1, 2, . . ., U, and

iλ
1
yiλ = ∑
λ t=(i−1)λ+1
yt (15)

In particular, when λ = 1, the coarse-grained series Yλ is simply the original time series
{yt , t = 1, 2, . . ., N}.
We calculated GE for all coarse-grained time sequences Yλ with different scale factors
one by one and then plotted these GE values as a function of scale factor λ. This procedure
is called MGE analysis.

2.3. Hierarchical Grey Entropy

The MGE can effectively be used to extract the feature information hidden in the
lower-frequency components for a given time series, but it ignores the feature information
hidden in the high frequencies. To capture more useful feature information than the use of
MGE, hierarchical grey entropy (HGE) is proposed in this paper. The proposed HGE can
be calculated from the following steps:
 It should be noted that N = 2 , m is a positive integer, and T0(Y) with length 2 is
low-frequency components of Y at scale 2. At the same time, another operator T1 is defin
as
𝑦2𝑖−1 − 𝑦2𝑖
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 𝑇1 (𝑌) = , 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 2𝑚−1 6 of 35 (
2
T1(Y) with length 2m−1 is the high-frequency components of Y at scale 2.
𝑓 series Y = {y , t = 1, 2, . . ., N} as
Step 1. Define an averaging operator T for the time
0
Step 2. For j = 0 or 1, the f-th layer operator 𝑇𝑗 is definedtas
y2i−1 + y2i m −1
T0 (Y )𝑗= , i = 1, 2, . . . , 2 (16)
1 (−1 ) 2
0 0 … 0 0
2 that2N = 2m , m is a positive integer, and T0 (Y) with length 2m −1 is
It should be noted
the low-frequency components of Y at scale 𝑗 the same time, another operator T1 is
(−12.)At
1
𝑇𝑗 = 0 T 0(Y) = y22i−1 − y2i2, i = 1, 2, … 0m−1 0
defined as 𝑓
...,2 (17) (
1
⋮ m −1 ⋮ ⋮ 2 ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮
T1 (Y) with length 2 is the high-frequency components of Y at scale
f 1 (−1)𝑗 2.
Step 2. For j = 0 0 f -th layer
0 or 1, the 0 operator
0 Tj is…defined as
[ 2 2 ]2𝑚−𝑓 ×2𝑚−𝑓+1
(−1) j

1
Step 3. The hierarchical 0 0 Yf,g
component . . for
. 0 the 0g-th node in the f-th layer can be o
2 2
(−1) j

0 1
tained by f 0 2 2 ... 0 0 
T = (18)
 
j  .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 

. . . .𝑓 . 𝑓−1 . . 
0
𝑌 =
0 𝑓,𝑔0
𝑇0𝑠𝑓 ∙ .𝑇. 𝑠. 𝑓−11 ∙ (−⋯1)j∙ 𝑇𝑠m11− f ∙ 𝑌 (
2 2 2 ×2m − f +1

where f isStep
hierarchical layer number,
3. The hierarchical component g isYfhierarchical
,g for the g-th node nodeinnumber in the
the f -th layer f-th
can be layer a
the one-dimensional
obtained by vector {s1, s2, …, sf} ∈ {0, 1} can be calculated as expressed in Equat
f f −1
(20). Y f ,g = Ts f · Ts f −1 · · · · · Ts11 ·Y (19)
where f is hierarchical layer number, g is hierarchical 𝑓 node number in the f -th layer and the
one-dimensional vector {s1 , s2 , . . ., sf } ∈ {0, 1} can be calculated as expressed in Equation (20).
𝑔 = ∑ 2𝑓−𝑘 𝑠𝑘 (
f
g= ∑ 𝑘=1
2 f −k sk (20)
k =1
Step 4. The GE of each hierarchical component Yf,g is calculated to measure the co
Step 4. The GE of each hierarchical component Yf ,g is calculated to measure the
plexity of the bearing vibration time series. This procedure is called HGE analysis.
complexity of the bearing vibration time series. This procedure is called HGE analysis.
The The
hierarchical
hierarchicaldecomposition
decomposition ofof Y with
Y with fourfour
scalesscales is in
is given given in1.Figure 1.
Figure

High frequency component

Original signal Y Low frequency component

Hierarchical Layer f=1 Y1,0 Y1,1

Hierarchical Layer f=2 Y2,0 Y2,1 Y2,2 Y2,3

Hierarchical Layer f=3 Y3,0 Y3,1 Y3,2 Y3,3 Y3,4 Y3,5 Y3,6 Y3,7
Figure 1. Hierarchical
Figure decomposition
1. Hierarchical decomposition ofofY Y with
with four
four scales.
scales.

2.4. The Parameter Selection of HGE

In HGE analysis, three parameters need to be determined: the hierarchical layer
number f, the embedding dimension q, and the similarity tolerance e. A synthetic noise
signal of 1/f noise with data lengths N = 2000 was utilized for the test, and the temporal
 2.4. The Parameter Selection of HGE
In HGE analysis, three parameters need to be determined: the hierarchic
ber f, the embedding dimension q, and the similarity tolerance e. A synthetic
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 7 of 35
of 1/f noise with data lengths N = 2000 was utilized for the test, and the tempo
of 1/f noise is plotted in Figure 2a. The specific steps of parameter selection
follows:
waveform of 1/f noise is plotted in Figure 2a. The specific steps of parameter selection are
given as follows:

Figure 2. (a) Temporal waveform of 1/f noise. (b) Temporal waveform of Gaussian white noise.
Figure 2. (a) Temporal waveform of 1/f noise. (b) Temporal waveform of Gaussian w
First, we investigated the hierarchical layer number of HGE analysis. Although a
larger hierarchical layer could contain more lower- and higher-frequency information and
First, we investigated the hierarchical layer number of HGE analysis
enhance the classification accuracy, the computational complexity grows exponentially
larger
with thehierarchical
hierarchical layer layer
[40].could contain
In general, f dependsmore on lower-
the lengthand higher-frequency
of experiment data and info
enhance the classification accuracy, the computational complexity grows e
ranges from 1 to 3 [11,41]. In this paper, we set f = 2 with the hierarchical node of the final
obtained decomposition features as 4.
with the hierarchical layer [40]. In general, f depends on the length of experim
Then, we explored the relationship between the GE values and embedding dimension
ranges
q. Althoughfrom the1larger
to 3 [11,41].
the q value,Inthe
this paper,
richer we set f =obtained
the information 2 withafterthe phase
hierarchical
space nod
obtained
reconstruction, decomposition features
a too-large q value as 4.
is disadvantageous owing to the need of a very large
N (10q –30q ), which is difficult to meet for a bearing vibration time series [22]. Figure 3
Then, we explored the relationship between the GE values and embeddin
illustrates the GE values of 1/f noise according to different embedding dimension q values;
q.weAlthough
found that the withlarger the qinvalue,
the increase q value,the richer
GE also the information
gradually obtainedtoafter ph
increases and converges
construction, a too-large q value is disadvantageous owing to thenodes
about 0.3. It is worth noting that when q ≥ 3, the fluctuation trend at different needno of a very
longer changes. This indicates that the GE with embedding dimension q = 3 is sufficient
30 ), which is difficult to meet for a bearing vibration time series [22]. Figure 3
q
to accurately reflect the dynamic changes. Therefore, the embedding dimension q was set
GE
as 3.values of 1/f noise according to different embedding dimension q values; w
with At the increase
last, in q value,
we considered GE also
the selection of thegradually increases
similarity tolerance and converges
e. A larger similarity to a
tolerance e could lead to more difficult matching of templates
worth noting that when q ≥ 3, the fluctuation trend at different nodes no lon and much more statistical
information being lost, while a small similarity tolerance e could make the evaluated result
This indicates
of statistical that the
properties GE with
inaccurate andembedding
sensitive to noise.dimension
Figure 4qshows
= 3 isthe
sufficient
obtained to accu
the dynamic
results changes.
using different Therefore,
similarity tolerance the embedding
e values. From Figure dimension q was
4, it can be found thatset as 3.
with
the increase in e value, GE gradually decreases and converges to about 0.02. When q ≤ 0.2
SD (SD is the standard deviation of the original signal), the fluctuation trend at different
nodes no longer changes. This indicates that the GE with similarity tolerance e = 0.2 SD is
sufficient to accurately reflect the dynamic changes. Therefore, the similarity tolerance e
was set as 0.2 SD.
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW

Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 8 of 35

Figure 3. GE values of 1/f noise according to different embedding dimension q values.

At last, we considered the selection of the similarity tolerance e. A larger sim

tolerance e could lead to more difficult matching of templates and much more stat
information being lost, while a small similarity tolerance e could make the evaluated
of statistical properties inaccurate and sensitive to noise. Figure 4 shows the obtain
sults using different similarity tolerance e values. From Figure 4, it can be found tha
the increase in e value, GE gradually decreases and converges to about 0.02. When
SD (SD is the standard deviation of the original signal), the fluctuation trend at diff
nodes no longer changes. This indicates that the GE with similarity tolerance e = 0.2
sufficient to accurately reflect the dynamic changes. Therefore, the similarity toler
was set as 0.2 SD.
Figure
Figure3.3.GE valuesofof1/f1/fnoise
GE values noise according
according to different
to different embedding
embedding dimensiondimension
q values. q values.

At last, we considered the selection of the similarity tolerance e. A larger sim

tolerance e could lead to more difficult matching of templates and much more stat
information being lost, while a small similarity tolerance e could make the evaluated
of statistical properties inaccurate and sensitive to noise. Figure 4 shows the obtain
sults using different similarity tolerance e values. From Figure 4, it can be found tha
the increase in e value, GE gradually decreases and converges to about 0.02. When
SD (SD is the standard deviation of the original signal), the fluctuation trend at diff
nodes no longer changes. This indicates that the GE with similarity tolerance e = 0.2
sufficient to accurately reflect the dynamic changes. Therefore, the similarity toler
was set as 0.2 SD.

Figure
Figure4.4.GE valuesofof1/f1/fnoise
GE values noise according
according to different
to different similarity
similarity tolerance etolerance
values. e values.

In order to perform a more in-depth discussion on how these parameters affect the
In orderoftoHGE,
performance perform
the GEavalues
moreobtained
in-depth for discussion
1/f noise andon how
white these noise
gaussian parameters
(WG affe
performance of HGE, the GE values obtained for 1/f noise and white gaussian
noise) with different q values (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10) and e values (0.1 SD, 0.2 SD, 0.3 SD, noise
0.4 SD, 0.5 SD, 0.6 SD, 0.7 SD, 0.8 SD, 0.9 SD and 1 SD) were calculated successively. For
fair comparison, in Figure 5, the parameters were set as e = 0.2 SD, f = 2 and in Figure 6,
the parameters were set as q = 3, f = 2, separately. The results are shown in Figures 5 and 6
separately. It can be found clearly from Figure 5 that HGE can separate two signals when
q = 2, q = 3, q = 7, q = 8, q = 9 and q = 10. Considering that if q is too large, the value of data
 For 0.4
SD, fairSD,
comparison,
0.5 SD, 0.6inSD, Figure 5, the
0.7 SD, 0.8parameters
SD, 0.9 SD were and 1set SD)aswere
e = 0.2 SD, f = 2 and
calculated succesin
6, the
For fairparameters
comparison, werein set
Figureas q 5,
= 3,
thef =parameters
2, separately. wereThesetresults
as e =are0.2shown
SD, f = in Figures
2 and in F
6 separately. It can be found clearly from Figure 5 that HGE
6, the parameters were set as q = 3, f = 2, separately. The results are shown in Figures can separate two signals
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082
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= 2, q = 3, q It= can7, q be
= 8,found
q = 9 clearly
and q =from 10. Considering
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shows that
6, it can forthat
the
be seen theforselection
selectionall eof ofHGE
e hardly
values, e. affects
can be usedthetoperformance
separate of
the two signals. This shows that the selection
that is, HGE has good robustness for the selection of e. of e hardly affects the performance of HGE,
that is, HGE has good robustness for the selection of e.

Figure 5. HGE with different embedding dimension q values.

Figure 5. HGE with different embedding dimension q values.
Figure 5. HGE with different embedding dimension q values.

Figure 6. HGE with different similarity tolerance e values.

Figure 6. HGE with different similarity tolerance e values.
2.5. Comparison
Figure Analysis
6. HGE with different similarity tolerance e values.
2.5. Comparison
To verify theAnalysis
superiority of the proposed method, 1/f noise and WG noise containing
2000 data points were used to implement the comparisons between HGE, the hierarchical
2.5. Comparison
Toentropy Analysis
verify(HFE)
the superiority of the sample
proposed method, 1/f noiseFigure
and WG noise cont
fuzzy and the hierarchical entropy (HSE) methods. 2 shows
2000 data
To
the randomlypoints
verify thewere
selected used to
superiority
temporal implement
of of 1/fthe
the proposed
waveforms comparisons
method,
noise and WG1/f between
noise
noise, and HGE, the hiera
WGItnoise
respectively. can cont
fuzzy
2000 entropy
be seen
datafrom
points(HFE)
Figurewere and
2 that thethe
used tohierarchical
fluctuation sample
trend of
implement the WG entropystable;
is relatively
comparisons (HSE) inmethods.
between contrast,
HGE, 1/f Figure
the 2
hierar
the randomly
fuzzy entropy selected
(HFE) and temporal waveforms
the hierarchical of 1/fentropy
sample noise and WG methods.
(HSE) noise, respectively
Figure 2
the randomly selected temporal waveforms of 1/f noise and WG noise, respectively.
 Sensors2023,
Sensors 2023,23,
23,xxFOR
FORPEER
PEERREVIEW
REVIEW 1

Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 10 of 35

beseen
be seenfrom
from Figure
Figure22thatthatthe thefluctuation
fluctuationtrendtrendof ofWG
WGisisrelatively
relativelystable;
stable;inincontra
contra
noise
noise has a more
has a more complex
complex structure
structuremore and contains
and contains more mode information.
more modeTherefore,
information. Therefo
noise has a more complex structure and contains mode information. 1/f Therefo
noiseisismore
noise morecomplex
complexthan thanWG WGnoise
noiseregarding
regardingstructure.
structure.
noise is more complex than WG noise regarding structure.
To explore
explore the estimation
estimation performance
performance of of HGE,
HGE, HFEHFE andand HSE HSE methods,
methods, thethe
To explore theTo estimationthe performance of HGE, HFE and HSE methods, the HGE,
HFE and
HFE and HSEHSE were
were employed
employed to to analyze
analyze the
theWG WGnoisenoiseand
and 1/f1/fnoises
noisesacross
across four
fourn
HFE and HSE were employed to analyze the WG noise and 1/f noises across four nodes.
Figures
Figures
Figures 7–9 show 7–9 show
7–9 show the
the performance theofperformance
performance
HSE, HFE and of HSE,
of HSE, HFE
HGEHFE and HGE
and
on these HGE onrespectively,
on
signals these signals
these signals respect
respec
where embedding where
where embedding
embedding
dimension dimension
q =dimension
3. As shown q =
q =in 3. As
3.Figure shown
As shown in
7, it in Figure
canFigure 7, it can
7, it that
be found can be be found
thefound that
GE ofthat thethe
both
both 1/f noiseboth
and WG 1/f noise
1/f noise and
noiseand WG noise
WG noise
obtained by HGEobtained
obtained by HGE
by HGE
decreases decreases monotonically
decreases monotonically
monotonically with the increase with the in
with the inc
in similarity
in similarity
in similarity tolerance e, and tolerance
tolerance e,e, and
the GE values and the
the1/f
of GEnoise
GE values
valuesare ofall
of 1/fgreater
1/f noise are
noise are
than allthose
all greater
greater than those
than
of WG those oo
noise
noise in
in the
the four
four nodes,
nodes, which
which is
is in
in accordance
accordance with
with the
the
noise in the four nodes, which is in accordance with the theoretical analysis. This illustrates theoretical
theoretical analysis.
analysis. This
This
trates
trates
that the HGE can that
that the
separate the
WG HGE
HGE can
canand
noise separate
separate WG
WGwell.
1/f noise noise and 1/f noise
noise and 1/f noise well. well.

Figure7.7.
Figure 7. HGE analysis
Figure HGE
ofHGE analysis
1/f noise andof
analysis of
WG 1/fnoise.
1/f noiseand
noise andWG
WGnoise.
noise.

Figure 8. HFE analysis of 1/f noise and WG noise.

Figure8.8.HFE
Figure HFEanalysis
analysisof
of1/f
1/fnoise
noiseand
andWG
WGnoise.
noise.
 Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 11 of 35

Figure 9. HSE analysis

Figureof
9. 1/f
HSEnoise and of
analysis WG 1/fnoise.
noise and WG noise.

Seen from Figure 8, although HFE can separate WG noise and 1/f noise in the last
Seen from Figure 8, although HFE can separate WG noise and 1/f noise in t
three nodes (node = 2, 3, 4), the FE values of WG noise are greater than those of 1/f noise,
three nodes (node = 2, 3, 4), the FE values of WG noise are greater than those of 1/f
which is not consistent with the theoretical analysis. From Figure 9, it can be clearly found
which is not consistent with the theoretical analysis. From Figure 9, it can be clearly
that though HSE shows good relative consistency when the node is 1, it no longer holds
that though HSE shows good relative consistency when the node is 1, it no longer
the property when the value of node is greater than 1.
the property when the value of node is greater than 1.
Therefore, compared with HFE and HSE, HGE can extract entire information and
Therefore, compared with HFE and HSE, HGE can extract entire informatio
effectively describe dynamic changes of the complex signal.
effectively describe dynamic changes of the complex signal.
3. Grey Bootstrap Markov Chain
3. Grey Bootstrap Markov Chain
The grey bootstrap Markov chain (GBMC) model is a combination model based on
The grey
the grey model, bootstrap bootstrap
method Markov chain.
and Markov chain (GBMC) modelprocess
The modeling is a combination
of GBMC is model ba
the grey model, bootstrap method and Markov chain. The modeling process of GB
described as follows.
described as follows.
3.1. Markov Chain Theory
Assuming3.1.the Markov Chain
stochastic Theory
process {cn , n ∈ T} for any states {i0 , i1 , . . ., in } = I and integers
T = {0, 1, . . .} satisfiesAssuming the stochastic process {cn, n ∈ T} for any states {i0, i1, …, in} = I and in
T = {0, 1, …} satisfies
P { c n +1 = i n +1 | c 0 = i 0 , c 1 = i 1 , · · · , c n = i n }
𝑃={𝑐P𝑛+1 (21)
{cn+= 𝑖 in+|𝑐
1 =𝑛+1 0n=
1 |c = 𝑖i0n,}𝑐1 = 𝑖1 , ⋯ , 𝑐𝑛 = 𝑖𝑛 }
= 𝑃{𝑐𝑛+1 = 𝑖𝑛+1 |𝑐𝑛 = 𝑖𝑛 }
Then the stochastic process {cn , n ∈ T} is said to have the Markovian property. A
Then the stochastic process {cn, n ∈ T} is said to have the Markovian property.
stochastic process is a Markov chain if it has the Markovian property.
chastic process is a Markov chain if it has the Markovian property.
Suppose a set of data {c(t), t ∈ T} is a Markov chain, the state space is {I1 , I2 , . . ., Im }
Suppose a set of data {c(t), t ∈ T} is a Markov chain, the state space is {I1, I2, …, I
and each state has m transitions. Taking I1 as an example, the possible transitions can be
each state has m transitions. Taking I1 as an example, the possible transitions can be
I1 →I1 , I1 →I2 , . . ., I1 →Im .
1→I2, …, I1→Im.
The k-stepItransition probability p(k) ij is the conditional probability that the system will
be in state Ij after k steps, giventransition
The k-step probability
in state Ii ,pwhich
(k)ij is the conditional probability that the s
that it starts can be calculated as follows:
will be in state Ij after k steps, given that it starts in state Ii, which can be calcula
follows: p(k) = P I → I = N (k) /N


(22)
ij i j ij i
𝑝(𝑘) 𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃(𝐼𝑖 → 𝐼𝑗 ) = 𝑁 (𝑘) 𝑖𝑗 /𝑁𝑖
where Ni is the number of states Ii and N(k) ij is the number of states Ii that can be transited
to state Ij . where Ni is the number of states Ii and N(k)ij is the number of states Ii that can be tra
to state Ij.
Thus, the k-step transition probability matrix can be expressed as:
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 12 of 35

Thus, the k-step transition probability matrix can be expressed as:

 
p(k) 11 p(k) 12 . . . p(k) 1n
 (k)
 p 21 p(k) 22 . . . p(k) 2n 

P(k) =  .. .. .. ..  (23)
 . . . . 

p(k) n1 p(k) n2 ... p(k) nn

The p(k) ij must satisfy the properties

p(k) ij ≥ 0, i, j = 1, 2, . . . , n (24)

and
n
∑ p(k) ij = 1, i = 1, 2, . . . , n (25)
j =1

3.2. Grey Bootstrap Markov Chain Method

For a given time series of N points, R = {r (1), r (2), . . ., r (t), . . ., r (M)}, t = 1, 2, . . ., M,
taking v data adjacent to time t from R (including the data at time t) to form the rolling
fusion subsequence of time t as follows:

Rv = {rv (u), u = t − v + 1, t − v + 2, · · · , t}, t ≥ v (26)

Based on Rv , the bootstrap method was used to obtain the resampling samples
Qbootstrap as follows:
Qbootstrap = [ Q1 , Q2 , ..., Qb , ..., Q B ] (27)
where Qb is the b-th bootstrap sample and Qb = {qb (i)}, i = 1, 2, . . ., v, b = 1, 2, . . ., B, qb (i)
represents the i-th bootstrap resampling data in Qb .
The predicted value q̂b (w) of Qb at time w = t + 1 is obtained via the GM (1,1) model [42],
and the predicted sequence generated by accumulation is:

Q̂b = {q̂b (i )}, , i = 1, 2, · · · , v (28)

The residual between the original sequence and the predicted sequence is

ε b (i ) = qb (i ) − q̂b (i ) (29)

Let
εb (i ) = (|qb (i ) − q̂b (i )|) (30)
We define the Markov interval span as

ε b,max − ε b,min
Db = (31)
m
where m is the number of Markov state intervals, and

ε b,max = max|qb (i ) − q̂b (i )|, ε b,min = min|qb (i ) − q̂b (i )| (32)

We divided Db into m states; Ib , j represents the j-th state, Ib,j = [ρb,j−1 , ρb,j ], j = 1,2,. . .,m.
The more state intervals are divided, the higher the prediction accuracy. However, if there
are too many state intervals, the number of samples in each interval is too small, which
actually affects the prediction accuracy. Therefore, appropriate state divisions should be
made according to the actual situation. For this article, we divided the interval into four
groups, which can be expressed as

Ib,j = [ε b,min + Db ( j − 1), ε b,min + Db j], j = 1, 2, 3, 4 (33)

Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 13 of 35

We conducted the Markov states partition of εb and constructed a k-step transition

probability matrix as follows:

(k) (k) (k)

 
p11 p12 ··· p1m
 
 p(k) p22
(k)
···
(k)
p2m 
(k)  21 
Pb =
 .. .. ..

..  (34)
 . . . . 
 
(k) (k) (k)
pm1 pm2 ··· pmm

We selected the m residuals in the residual sequence εb closest to time w and then
selected their corresponding row vector in the k-step transition probability matrix to form
the m-order state transition probability matrix as follows:

(1) (1) (1)

 
p̂i1 p̂i2 ··· p̂im
 
 p̂(2) (2)
p̂i2 ···
(2) 
p̂im
 i1 
P̂b = 
 .. .. .. ..

 (35)
 . . . . 
 
(m) (m) (m)
p̂i1 p̂i2 ··· p̂im

where i is the Markov state of the residual.

The probability of m-order Markov chains can be calculated as follows:
m
∑ p̂ij
(k)
P| Ib,j = , j = 1, 2, . . . , m (36)
k =1
n o
We took the state Ib,j corresponding to max P| Ib,j , Ib,j ∈ Ib as the next best state
predicted by the bootstrap Markov chain, and then the predicted residual value at time w
was obtained as:
ρb,j−1 + ρb,j
ε b (w) = (37)
2
Let state 1 indicate a positive residual sign and state 2 indicate a negative residual sign.
Conduct the Markov symbol states partition of ε b , and a one-step transition probability
matrix can be obtained as follows:
 
p p12
Pb = 11 (38)
p21 p22

where pij = Nij /Ni , i, j = 1,2, Ni is the number of states i, and Nij is the number of states i
that can be transited to state j.
Define initial state p(0) = [0.5, 0.5], and then the probability of residual sign state can be
calculated as follows: h i
(w) (w) (w)
Pb = p(0) Pb = pb,1 , pb,2 (39)

The predicted residual sign at time w can be obtained as:


 1, p(w) − p(w) ≥ 0
b,1 b,2
f b (w) = (40)
−1, p(w) − p(w) < 0
b,1 b,2

The GM (1,1) prediction value revised by the bootstrap Markov chain is

q∗b (w) = q̂b (w) + f b (w)ε b (w) (41)

Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 14 of 35

3.3. Parameter Indicators for Dynamic Evaluation

At time w = t + 1, there are B prediction values, which can form the sequence as follows:
∗
rw = {q∗b (w)}, b = 1, 2, · · · , B (42)
∗
Afterwards, the frequency function of rv at time t can be established based on rw
as follows:
Fw = Fw (rv ) (43)
∗ based on statistical principles, and the median value
Draw a statistical histogram of rw
ζ z and frequency cz of each group can be obtained.
(1) Estimated true value
At time w, the estimated true value can be expressed as:

1 Z
Z z∑
X0 ( w ) = cz ζ z (44)
=1

(2) Dynamic estimated interval

Let the significance level be σ; then the confidence level can be obtained as

H = (1 − σ ) × 100% (45)

At time w, when the confidence level is H, the estimated interval for the true value of
the attribute parameter is [XL , XU ]; XL and XU can be calculated respectively as follows:

X L = σ ( KU − K L ) + K L (46)

XU = (1 − σ )(KU − K L ) + K L (47)
where KL is the lower limit value of the first group of histograms, and KU is the upper limit
value of the z-th group of histograms.
(3) Reliability of prediction result
For a sequence with length T, there are h attribute parameter values outside the esti-
mation interval [XL , XU ], and the reliability of the grey bootstrap Markov chain prediction
model can be defined as:
 
h
HB = 1 − × 100% (48)
T−v+1

(4) Dynamic uncertainty

Define the dynamic uncertainty of the attribute parameters at time w as

U = U (w) = XU − X L (49)

4. The Degradation Stage Prediction Procedure

Based on HGE and GBMC, a novel degradation stage prediction method for rolling
bearings is proposed in this paper. Figure 10 shows the flowchart of the proposed scheme,
and its main processes are described as follows:
Sensors 2023,
Sensors 23,23,
2023, x FOR
9082 PEER REVIEW 15 of 35 15 of 35

Experiment data acquisition

Speed of revolution

Load

Experiment test rig Working condition Vibration signal

Degradation feature extraction using HGE

Bearing vibration signal {yt}

Hierarchical layer number f,

Divide the vibration signal
X={x1,x2,...,xS}
Y={y1,y2,...,yN}, S=MN
embedding dimension q,
similarity tolerance e
Each hierarchical component Yf,g

Calculate GE of Yf,g

Degradation stage division HGE analysis Degradation stage sequence

Degradation stage prediction using GBMC

Degradation stage sequence R= {r (1), r (2), r (M)}

Bootstrap method is used to obtain the resampling samples

Qbootstrap =[Q1,Q2,...,QB]

GM model and bootstrap Markov chain method are used to obtain

the prediction sequence rw*= {q1* (w), q2* (w qB* (w)}

Large sample sequence of the

GBMC prediction method
prediction results

Dynamic evaluation of prediction results

Establish the frequency function Fw

(1) Estimation true value X0(w)

(2) Dynamic estimation interval [XL, XU]
(3) Reliability of prediction result HB
(4) Dynamic uncertainty U

Parameter indicators for dynamic evaluation Dynamic evaluation results

Figure 10. Flowchart

Figure 10. Flowchartofofthe
the proposed
proposed degradation
degradation stagestage prediction
prediction method.
method.

Step 1.
Step 1. Conduct
Conductfatigue
fatiguelifelife
testing andand
testing collect the vibrational
collect signals
the vibrational under under
signals different
different
working conditions.
working conditions.
Step 2. Employ the HGE employed to extract the degradation stage feature from the
Step 2. Employ the HGE employed to extract the degradation stage feature from the
collected vibrational signals. Firstly, divide the vibration signal into M degradation stages.
collected vibrational
Then, perform signals.on
HGE analysis Firstly, divide the vibration
each degradation stage, andsignal intoGE
take the Mvalue
degradation
of each stages.
Then, perform HGE analysis on each degradation stage, and take the
stage as the degradation feature value, where q = 3, e = 0.2 SD, f = 2, node = 1. Finally, GE value of each
stage
combineas the
thedegradation
degradation feature
feature value,
values where
of each stageqto=form
3, e a= degradation
0.2 SD, f = stage
2, node = 1. Finally,
sequence.
combine theEmploy
Step 3. degradation feature
the proposed GBMCvalues of each
method stagethe
to predict to degradation
form a degradation stage se-
stage. Firstly,
use the
quence. bootstrap method to obtain the large sample sequence of the degradation stage.
Then,Step
use the grey Markov
3. Employ chain method
the proposed GBMC to make a one-step
method prediction
to predict of the large sample
the degradation stage. Firstly,
use the bootstrap method to obtain the large sample sequence of the degradation stage.
Then, use the grey Markov chain method to make a one-step prediction of the large sam-
ple sequence of the degradation stage. Finally, use the prediction results to establish the
large sample prediction sequence of the degradation stage.
Sensors 2023,
Sensors 2023, 23, x9082
FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of
16 of 35
35

sequence
Step of the degradation
4. Apply stage. Finally,
three parameter use the
indicators prediction
to evaluate theresults to establish
prediction results.the large
Firstly,
sample prediction
establish a frequencysequence
functionof based
the degradation
on the largestage.
sample prediction sequence of the deg-
Stepstage.
radation 4. Apply
Then,three parameter
obtain indicators
the estimated truetovalues,
evaluate
thatthe
is,prediction results.
the predicted Firstly,
values, for
establish a frequency function based on the large sample prediction sequence
each degradation stage using the frequency function. Finally, employ three parameter in- of the degra-
dation stage.
dicators, Then,
namely theobtain the estimated
dynamic estimatedtrue values,
interval, that is, the
reliability predicted values,
of prediction for each
result and dy-
namic uncertainty, to evaluate the prediction results from different perspectives. indica-
degradation stage using the frequency function. Finally, employ three parameter
tors, namely the dynamic estimated interval, reliability of prediction result and dynamic
uncertainty,
5. Experiment to Verification
evaluate the prediction results from different perspectives.
In order toVerification
5. Experiment validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in this paper for rolling
bearing degradation stage prediction, three experimental cases were conducted consecu-
In order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in this paper for rolling
tively.
bearing degradation stage prediction, three experimental cases were conducted consecutively.
5.1.
5.1. Case
Case 11
The accelerated life
The accelerated lifetest
testwas
wasimplemented
implemented at the
at the Hangzhou
Hangzhou Bearing
Bearing Test Test and Re-
and Research
search Center to acquire the whole-lifetime vibration data. The test rig consisted
Center to acquire the whole-lifetime vibration data. The test rig consisted of a monitoring of a mon-
itoring system, transmission system, loading system, lubrication system
system, transmission system, loading system, lubrication system and computer control and computer
control
system system
as shownas shown
in Figurein 11.
FigureThe11. The bearing
bearing life enhancement
life enhancement test machine
test machine was
was ABLT-
ABLT-1A from Hangzhou
1A from Hangzhou BearingBearing
Test and TestResearch
and Research Center
Center Co., Co.,
Ltd.,Ltd., Hangzhou,
Hangzhou, China,
China, the
the acceleration
acceleration sensor
sensor waswasAI002AI002
fromfrom Yangzhou
Yangzhou Jingming
Jingming Technology
Technology Co., Co.,
Ltd.,Ltd., Yang-
Yangzhou,
zhou,
China,China, anddynamic
and the the dynamic signal
signal testtest
andand analysis
analysis systemwas
system wasJM5937
JM5937 from
from Yangzhou
Yangzhou
Jingming
Jingming Technology Co., Ltd., Yangzhou, China. The bearings used in the test test
Technology Co., Ltd., Yangzhou, China. The bearings used in the werewere ta-
tapered
pered roller bearings 7008 AC from Luoyang Bearing Research Institute Co.,
roller bearings 7008 AC from Luoyang Bearing Research Institute Co., Ltd., Luoyang, China. Ltd., Luo-
yang,
TablesChina.
1 and Tables
2 show1the
andtest
2 show the testand
conditions conditions
bearing and bearing parameters,
parameters, respectively.respectively.

Figure 11.
Figure The test
11. The test rig.
rig.

Table 1.
Table The test
1. The test condition
condition of
of the
the bearing
bearing test
test system
system (case
(case 1).
1).

Bearing Dynamic
DynamicLoad
Load Rotating
Rotating
Bearing P/C Radial
RadialLoad Axial Load
TypeType Rating(Cr)
Rating (Cr) P/C Speed
Speed
Load Axial Load
7008 AC
7008 AC 1919KN
KN 0.39
0.39 4000
4000r/min
r/min 22KN
KN 3.5 KN
3.5 KN

Table 2. Parameters of 7008 AC bearing.

Table 2. Parameters of 7008 AC bearing.
Parameter Value
Parameter Value
Accuracy class P2
Accuracy
Inner class
diameter 40 P2
mm
Inner diameter 40 mm
Outer diameter
Outer diameter
68 mm
68 mm
Width
Width 15
15 mm
mm
Dynamic
Dynamic load rating
load rating 18.7
18.7 KN
Staticload
Static load rating
rating 14.6 KN
14.6 KN
Number of rolling elements 16
Number of rolling elements 16
 One datum was recorded every minute. In order to observe the complete degra
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 process of the bearing from normal state to minor failure and then to17severe of 35 failu
relative method was used in the experiment to determine the failure threshold of th
ing. When the maximum amplitude of the bearing vibration signal exceeded 3A (A
One datum
maximum was recorded
amplitude every
of the minute.
bearing In order
during to observe
normal the complete
operation), thedegradation
bearing was con
process of the bearing from normal state to minor failure and then to severe failure, the
to have completely failed and the test was immediately terminated. The accelera
relative method was used in the experiment to determine the failure threshold of the
test wasWhen
bearing. carried theout successively
maximum amplitude until thebearing
of the crest factor of signal
vibration vibration signal
exceeded exceeded
3A (A
value; the total amplitude
is the maximum number ofofsampling
the bearingvibration data operation),
during normal was 8000. the bearing was
The vibration data in this case are exactly the same as those
considered to have completely failed and the test was immediately of Experiment
terminated. The 2
accelerated
erence [39].lifeThe
testwaveform
was carried ofoutthe
successively
original until the crest
vibration factoris
signal ofshown
vibrationinsignal
Figure 12, a
exceeded the set value; the total number of sampling vibration data was 8000.
vibration data did not undergo any preprocessing. From Figure 12, it can be fou
The vibration data in this case are exactly the same as those of Experiment 2 in
the vibration
Reference amplitude
[39]. The waveform hasof thean upward
original trend.
vibration Before
signal 200inmin,
is shown Figurethe vibration
12, and the am
slightly
vibration decreases
data did notas time goes
undergo on and thenFrom
any preprocessing. enters a stable
Figure stage,
12, it can indicating
be found that thethat the
vibration amplitude has an upward trend. Before 200 min,
bearing enters the normal operation period after a short run-in period.the vibration amplitude slightly
From aroun
decreases as time goes on and then enters a stable stage, indicating that the rolling bearing
min, the vibration amplitude increases and then begins to decrease, being basica
enters the normal operation period after a short run-in period. From around 3000 min, the
fluctuating state. At
vibration amplitude this stage,
increases and thenthebegins
rolling bearingbeing
to decrease, maybasically
have undergone slight failu
in a fluctuating
started to enter the failure period. After 6000 min, the vibration
state. At this stage, the rolling bearing may have undergone slight failure and started amplitude shar
creases in fluctuation.
to enter the failure period.AtAfter
this 6000
stage, thethe
min, rolling bearing
vibration already
amplitude experienced
sharply increases inserious
fluctuation. At this stage, the rolling bearing already experienced serious failure.

12.Time
Figure 12.
Figure Timedomain wavewave
domain of theof
vibration signal (case
the vibration 1). (case 1).
signal
A sequence with N data is used to represent a degradation stage, so the vibration
signalAcansequence
be dividedwith N datadegradation
into 8000/N is used tostages.
represent
The HGEa degradation stage,
of each degradation so the vi
stage
signal can be to
was calculated divided into
obtain the 8000/N degradation
degradation stages.
feature sequence The HGE
of rolling of In
bearing. each
orderdegradatio
to
investigate the effect of data length N on HGE, HFE and HSE calculations,
was calculated to obtain the degradation feature sequence of rolling bearing. In o these three
statistics were all applied to analyze degradation stages with different lengths—N = 200,
investigate the effect of data length N on HGE, HFE and HSE calculations, thes
N = 400, N = 800 and N = 1000—and the results are shown in Figure 13, where q = 3,
statistics
e = 0.2 SD, were all applied
f = 2, node tobe
= 1. It can analyze
seen fromdegradation stages
Figure 13 that with
for four different
different lengthslengths—N
of
N = 400, N =stages,
degradation 800 and N = 1000—and
the degradation the
feature results are
sequences, whichshown in Figure
were extracted 13, HGE
using where q = 3
entropy,
SD, f = 2,show
nodea phased
= 1. It downward
can be seen trend overall.
from Figure 13 that for four different lengths of de
tion stages, the degradation feature sequences, which were extracted using HGE e
show a phased downward trend overall.
OR PEER REVIEW 18 of 35
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 18 of 35

Figure 13. The HGE, HFE and HSE of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 1).
Figure 13. The HGE, HFE and HSE of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 1).
According to reference [16], the entropy algorithm measures the complexity and
regularity of nonlinear signals. When the rolling bearing is in normal operation, its motion
According toisreference [16], thewhich
extremely irregular, entropy
meansalgorithm measures
that the complexity thevibration
of the complexitysignaland
of thereg-
rolling
ularity of nonlinear signals.
bearing When
is the theWhen
highest. rolling bearing
local is in occur,
fault defects normal theoperation, its motion
vibration signal is
of the rolling
bearing exhibits obvious periodic signal characteristics, which
extremely irregular, which means that the complexity of the vibration signal of the rolling means that the complexity
of the vibration signal is reduced. When the defects of rolling bearings further expand,
bearing is the highest. When local fault defects occur, the vibration signal of the rolling
the periodic characteristics of their vibration signals becomes more obvious, which means
bearing exhibits obvious periodic signal
that the complexity of the characteristics,
vibration signals is which means
further thatThe
reduced. theresults
complexity
calculated
of the vibration signal
via HGEis reduced. When
are consistent thethe
with defects
aboveof rolling bearings
phenomenon, which further
indicatesexpand,
that the theresults
calculated
periodic characteristics via the
of their proposed signals
vibration method are consistent
becomes withobvious,
more real nonlinear
whichdynamic
means systems.
that It
is worth mentioning that when the degradation stage length N = 200, HGE characterizes
the complexity of the vibration signals is further reduced. The results calculated via HGE
the degradation trend of rolling bearings more accurately, which indicates that HGE has a
are consistent with the requirement
lower above phenomenon,
for data lengthwhich indicates
and that that the results
reliable calculation calculated
results can be obtained viawith
the proposed method are consistent
a shorter data length. with real nonlinear dynamic systems. It is worth men-
tioning that when the degradation stage
To demonstrate length N
the superiority = 200,the
of HGE, HGEHSEcharacterizes
and HFE of the the degrada-
degradation stage
were calculated separately under the same parameters,
tion trend of rolling bearings more accurately, which indicates that HGE has a lower re- as shown in Figure 13. From
Figure 13, it can be seen that when N = 200 and N = 400, the degraded feature sequences
quirement for data length and that reliable calculation results can be obtained with a
based on HSE and HFE do not exhibit obvious regularity; when N = 800 and N = 1000, the
shorter data length.degraded feature sequences based on HSE and HFE show a decreasing trend only when
To demonstrate the min.
t > 4000 superiority of HGE, the HSE and HFE of the degradation stage
In order
were calculated separately under to convincingly establish the superiority
the same parameters, as shownof inHGE,
Figurekurtosis,
13. Fromwhich is a com-
Figure
monly used time-domain feature extraction method, was employed to extract the rolling
13, it can be seen that when N = 200 and N = 400, the degraded feature sequences based on
bearing degraded features. The kurtosis values of each degradation stage were calcu-
HSE and HFE do not lated,exhibit
as shownobvious regularity;
in Figure 14. From when N =14,800
Figure it and
can be N found
= 1000,thatthewhen
degraded
N = 200,
feature sequences N based
= 400 and N = 800, the degraded feature sequences based on kurtosis 4000
on HSE and HFE show a decreasing trend only when t > do notmin.exhibit
obvious regularity.
In order to convincingly Although
establish thethe degradationof
superiority feature
HGE,sequence
kurtosis, based on kurtosis
which shows a
is a com-
downwardfeature
monly used time-domain trend when N = 1000,
extraction this trend
method, wasis not consistent to
employed with the evolution
extract trend of
the rolling
vibration amplitude.
bearing degraded features. The kurtosis values of each degradation stage were calculated,
as shown in Figure 14. From Figure 14, it can be found that when N = 200, N = 400 and N
= 800, the degraded feature sequences based on kurtosis do not exhibit obvious regularity.
Although the degradation feature sequence based on kurtosis shows a downward trend
when N = 1000, this trend is not consistent with the evolution trend of vibration amplitude.
ors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 of
Sensors
Sensors2023,
2023,23,
23,x 9082
FOR PEER REVIEW 1919ofof
3535

Figure 14. The HGE and kurtosis of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 1).

Figure The HGE

The14.above and kurtosis
analysis shows of rolling
that HGE bearing vibration
presents signal (case
an inherently 1). effective measure
more
Figure
for14. The HGE and
characterizing kurtosis of rolling
the degradation feature bearing
of rollingvibration signal
bearings than (case
HSE, HFE1).and kurtosis,
and HGEThe also
above has analysis shows that
the advantage HGE presents
of lower data length an inherently
requirements.moreTherefore,
effective measure
HGE can for
characterizing
The
be usedabove the
analysis
to extract degradation
shows that
the degradation feature of
HGE
feature rolling bearings
presents
of rolling than HSE, HFE and kurtosis,
an inherently more effective measu
bearings. and
HGE also has the advantage of lower data length requirements. Therefore, HGE can be
The large
for characterizing time span caused by calculating the HGE of each degradation stage when
used to extract the degradation
the degradation feature
feature of rolling
of rolling bearings.bearings than HSE, HFE and kurtos
the sample
and HGEThe also length
hastime is too
thespan long
advantage is not conducive to the timely mining of degradation infor-
large caused byof lower data
calculating the HGE length requirements.
of each degradation stageTherefore,
when the HGE c
mation during the operation of rolling bearings. In this article, we set 200 data as a degra-
be used to
sample extract
length isthe toodegradation feature
long is not conducive to of
therolling bearings.
timely mining
dation stage (N = 200), and the vibration signal was divided into 40 degradation stages.
of degradation information
during
The the operation
large of caused
rolling bearings. In this article,HGE we setof 200 datadegradation
as a degradation
The HGE of time span
each degradation bywas
stage calculating
calculated the to obtain the each
degradation feature se-stage wh
stage (N = 200), and the vibration signal was divided into 40 degradation stages. The HGE
the sample
quence oflength
rolling is too long is not conducive to the timely mining of degradation info
bearings.
of each degradation stage was calculated to obtain the degradation feature sequence of
mation Due
during to the fact that a rolling
the operation bearingbearings.
of rolling is in the optimal
In thisoperation
article, we period
set for
200the firstas a degr
data
rolling bearings.
4000stage
dation min, there = is200),
no practical significance to predicting its divided
degradation during this stage.
Due(N to the fact thatanda rolling
the vibration
bearing issignal was
in the optimal operation into 40 degradation
period for the first stag
Therefore, a dynamic prediction was made for the degradation stage sequence corre-
4000 min,
The sponding
HGE of to theredegradation
each is no practical significance
stage20was to predicting to
calculated its obtain
degradation during
thestages). this stage.
degradation feature s
Therefore, athe last 4000
dynamic min (stage
prediction was made to 40,fora the
total of 21 degradation
degradation stage sequence The large
correspond-
quence of rolling
sample sequence bearings.
of min
21 degradation stages predicted via the GBMC model
ing to the last 4000 (stage 20 to 40, a total of 21 degradation stages). Theislarge
shown in
sample
Due
Figure to
sequence the
15. Weof 21fact
sorted that a rolling
the data stages
degradation bearing
in the large sample
predicted is in the
viasequence
the GBMC optimal
of model operation
21 degradation period
is shownstages for the fir
from15.
in Figure
4000small
min, to large
there
We sorted isand
the nothen
data grouped
practical
in the large them, taking
significance
sample toZpredicting
sequence =of10.
21We drew a histogram,
its degradation
degradation stages from shown
smallintothis stag
during
Figure
Therefore, 16.
large anda dynamic
then grouped prediction
them, taking wasZ =made
10. We drewfor the degradation
a histogram, shownstage sequence
in Figure 16. corr
sponding to the last 4000 min (stage 20 to 40, a total of 21 degradation stages). The lar
sample sequence of 21 degradation stages predicted via the GBMC model is shown
Figure 15. We sorted the data in the large sample sequence of 21 degradation stages fro
small to large and then grouped them, taking Z = 10. We drew a histogram, shown
Figure 16.

Figure15.
Figure Largesample
15.Large samplesequence
sequenceofofthe
thedegradation
degradationstages
stages(case
(case1).1).
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 20 of 35
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Figure 16. Histogram of large sample sequences of degradation stages (case 1).

According to Equation (44), we calculated the estimated true values of 21 degradation

16. Histogramofoflarge
Figure16.
Figure largesample
samplesequences
sequencesofofdegradation
degradation stages(case (case 1).
stages toHistogram
obtain the degradation feature predictionstages sequence.1).According to Equations
(45)–(47), the estimated
According interval ofcalculated
the degradation stagetrue
sequence
valuesofcan be obtained where
According totoEquation
Equation (44),we
(44), we calculated the theestimated
estimated true values of2121degradation
degradation
the significance
stages to
stages to obtain
obtainthe level is set
thedegradation
degradationas 0.05,
feature as shown
prediction
feature in Figure
sequence.
prediction 17a. From
According
sequence. Figure
to Equations
According 17a, it can be seen
(45)–(47),
to Equations
the the
that estimated
(45)–(47), interval
prediction
the estimated of the degradation
sequence
interval ofofthe stage sequence
the degradation
degradation can be obtained
stagesequence
stage generally canshows where thewhere
a downward
be obtained signifi- trend.
cance
Between level
4000is set
and as 0.05,
6000 as
min,shownthe in Figure
prediction 17a. From
sequence Figure
of 17a,
the
the significance level is set as 0.05, as shown in Figure 17a. From Figure 17a, it can be seen it can be
degradation seen that
stage the
is almost
prediction
consistent sequence
with the of the degradation
degradation stage generally
stage sequence. shows a
Betweenshows downward
6000 and trend.
8000 min, Betweendue to the
that the prediction sequence of the degradation stage generally a downward trend.
4000 and 6000 min, the prediction sequence of the degradation stage is almost consistent
continuous degradation of the bearing vibration performance, the extracted degradation
Between 4000 and 6000 min, the prediction sequence of the degradation stage is almost
with the degradation stage sequence. Between 6000 and 8000 min, due to the continuous
consistent
stage values with the degradation
show a disorderlystage sequence.
fluctuation Between
state, but the6000 and 8000 sequence
prediction min, due to thecaptures
still
degradation of the bearing vibration performance, the extracted degradation stage values
continuous
the continuousdegradation
downward of the bearing
trend vibration performance, the extracted degradation
show a disorderly fluctuation state,of the
but thedegradation stage. From
prediction sequence Figure 17a,
still captures it can also be
the continu-
stage values
found show a disorderly fluctuation state, but the prediction sequence still captures
ous downward trend of the degradation stage. From Figure 17a, it can also be foundincludes
that the estimated interval of the degradation stage sequence almost that all
the continuous downward trend of the degradation stage. From Figure 17a, it can also be
the
thedegradation
estimated interval stageof values, with onlystage
the degradation two sequence
degradation almost stage values
includes all falling
the degrada-outside the
found that the estimated interval of the degradation stage sequence almost includes all
estimated
tion stageinterval.
values, with According
only twotodegradation
Equation (48), stagethe prediction
values reliability
falling outside theH B is 90.91%, in-
estimated
the degradation stage values, with only two degradation stage values falling outside the
interval. According
dicating to Equation (48),can the effectively
prediction reliability H B is 90.91%, indicating
estimatedthat the estimated
interval. Accordinginterval
to Equation (48), track the
the prediction evolution
reliability HB istrend
90.91%, of the
in- degra-
that
dation the estimated
stage sequence. interval can effectively track the evolution trend of the degradation
dicating that the estimated interval can effectively track the evolution trend of the degra-
stage sequence.
dation stage sequence.

(a)(a)Prediction
Predictionresult
result and
andestimated
estimatedinterval
interval (b) (b)
Dynamic uncertainty
Dynamic sequence
uncertainty sequence
Figure 17.
Figure Prediction results and dynamic evaluation of rolling bearing degradation stages based
Figure17.
17. Prediction results
Prediction results and
and dynamic
dynamic evaluation
evaluation of rolling
of rolling bearingbearing degradation
degradation stages
stages based on based
on GBMC
onGBMC
GBMC model
model (case 1).
(case 1).
model (case 1).
 The dynamic uncertainty of the degradation stage sequence can be obtained a
ing to Equation (49), as shown in Figure 17b. From Figure 17b, it is clear that the
tainty shows a decreasing trend between 4000 and 5000 min, indicating that after
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082
degradation of the rolling bearing, it begins to enter a “self-healing” period 21 of 35
and t
certainty begins to decrease. Between 5000 and 5800 min, the uncertainty shows a
fluctuation trend, indicating that the rolling bearing enters a brief period of stable
tion after “self-healing”,
The dynamic uncertaintyand of thethe uncertainty
degradation stage stabilizes
sequence canatbeaobtained
small value stage; afte
according
to Equation
min, (49), as shown
the uncertainty in Figure
shows 17b. From Figure
a continuous upward 17b, trend,
it is clearindicating
that the uncertainty
further deterio
ofshows a decreasing trend between 4000 and 5000 min, indicating that after slight degrada-
the rolling bearing.
tion of the rolling bearing, it begins to enter a “self-healing” period and the uncertainty
From
begins the above
to decrease. analysis,
Between 5000itand is clear that the
5800 min, theuncertainty
evolution shows process of thefluctu-
a stable degradatio
ofation
rolling bearings
trend, indicating is characterized from different
that the rolling bearing perspectives
enters a brief by the
period of stable estimated true
operation
Xafter
0 (prediction value),
“self-healing”, and theestimated
uncertainty interval
stabilizes[XLat, X U], prediction
a small value stage;reliability HB, and dy
after 5800 min,
uncertainty U. The estimated true value reflects the evolution trend of the
the uncertainty shows a continuous upward trend, indicating further deterioration of the degra
rolling bearing.
stageFromof rolling bearings, the estimated interval reflects the upper and lower boun
the above analysis, it is clear that the evolution process of the degradation stage
ofofthe
rolling bearings isresults,
prediction the reliability
characterized from different reflects the credibility
perspectives of the true
by the estimated prediction
value resu
the uncertainty
X0 (prediction reflects
value), the dynamic
estimated interval [Xfluctuation range
L , XU ], prediction of the prediction
reliability HB , and dynamicresults.
uncertainty U. The estimated true value reflects the evolution
In order to verify the superiority of the proposed model, the grey bootstra trend of the degradation
stage of rolling bearings, the estimated interval reflects the upper and lower boundaries of
model [43], which combines grey prediction theory and the bootstrap method, wa
the prediction results, the reliability reflects the credibility of the prediction results and the
touncertainty
predict the degradation
reflects the dynamicstages,
fluctuationas shown
range of in theFigure
prediction 18.results.
From Figure 18, it can b
that although
In order to the prediction
verify valueofof
the superiority thethe degradation
proposed model, the stage
greyobtained
bootstrap via
(GB)the GB
shows an overall
model [43], downward
which combines trend, which
grey prediction theorypartly
and thereflects
bootstrap the evolution
method, trend
was used to of the
predict the degradation stages, as shown in Figure 18. From Figure
dation stage, there are more true values of the degradation stage that fall outside th 18, it can be seen that
although the prediction value of the degradation stage obtained via the GB model shows an
mated interval than GBMC, and the prediction reliability HB is only 86.36%, ind
overall downward trend, which partly reflects the evolution trend of the degradation stage,
that
therethe
areestimated interval
more true values cannot
of the effectively
degradation capture
stage that the range
fall outside of the interval
the estimated rolling bearin
radation
than GBMC, stage.
and the prediction reliability HB is only 86.36%, indicating that the estimated
interval cannot effectively capture the range of the rolling bearing degradation stage.

18.Prediction
Figure 18.
Figure Predictionresults of rolling
results bearingbearing
of rolling degradation stages based
degradation on GBbased
stages model on
(case
GB1).model (case

For comparison, the AR method was also used to predict the degradation stage of the
For and
bearing, comparison, theshown
the results are AR method
in Figurewas alsoperformance
19. The used to predict
of GBMCthe and
degradation
AR was stage
bearing,
evaluatedand
based the
on results
average are shown
absolute errorin Figure
and 19. The
correlation performance
coefficient, of GBMC and A
and the comparison
results are listed in Table 3. Consulting Table 3, although the prediction
evaluated based on average absolute error and correlation coefficient, errors of bearing
and the comp
degradation stages obtained via the AR method are slightly smaller than the GBMC, the
results are listed in Table 3. Consulting Table 3, although the prediction errors of b
correlation coefficient obtained via the GBMC is larger than that obtained via the AR
degradation stages
method. It should also obtained
be pointed via thecompared
out that AR method to theare
AR slightly
method, thesmaller
GBMCthan the GBM
has the
correlation
advantage ofcoefficient obtained
dynamic evaluation via the results.
of prediction GBMC is larger than that obtained via t
method. It should also be pointed out that compared to the AR method, the GBM
the advantage of dynamic evaluation of prediction results.
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 22 of 35
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19.Prediction
Figure 19.
Figure Predictionresults of rolling
results bearing
of rolling degradation
bearing stagesstages
degradation based on AR method
based (case 1). (case 1).
on AR method

3.The
Table 3.
Table Thecomparative
comparativeanalysis results
analysis (case(case
results 1). 1).

AR
ARMethod
Method GBMC
GBMC
Average absolute
Average absolute error
error 0.0332
0.0332 0.0340
0.0340
Correlation coefficient 0.6094 0.7496
Correlation coefficient 0.6094 0.7496

Through the above analysis, it is clear that compared with the GB model and AR
Through the above analysis, it is clear that compared with the GB model and AR
method, the proposed GBMC method of this paper can effectively predict and evaluate the
method, the proposed GBMC method of this paper can effectively predict and evaluate
degradation stage of rolling bearing. This provides a new prediction and evaluation method
the degradation
for the stage ofand
online monitoring rolling bearing.
operational This provides
performance a new
evaluation of prediction and evaluation
rolling bearings.
method for the online monitoring and operational performance evaluation of rolling bear-
5.2. Case 2
ings.
To illustrate the universality of the proposed method, another accelerated life test
5.2.
was Case 2
also conducted at the Hangzhou Bearing Test and Research Center, where the basic
layout of the test rig was the same as in case 1. Table 4 lists the detailed test conditions.
To illustrate the universality of the proposed method, another accelerated life test
The total number of sampling vibration data is 5600. The vibration data in this case are
was also conducted at the Hangzhou Bearing Test and Research Center, where the basic
exactly the same as those of Experiment 3 in Reference [39]. The vibration data did not
layout
undergoofany
thepreprocessing.
test rig was theThesame as inof
waveform case
the 1. Table 4signal
vibration lists the detailed
is shown test conditions.
in Figure 20.
The total number of sampling vibration data is 5600. The vibration
From Figure 20, it can be seen that the vibration amplitude of the bearing remains data in this
at acase are
exactly the same
small value betweenas 0those of Experiment
min and 3 in Reference
400 min, indicating that the[39]. Thewas
bearing vibration data did not
in the initial
undergo
running inany preprocessing.
period; The waveform
during 401–5000 of the vibration
min, the vibration amplitudesignal
of theisbearing
shownisininFigure
a 20.
stable fluctuation state, indicating that the bearing was in a normal operating
From Figure 20, it can be seen that the vibration amplitude of the bearing remains at aperiod; and
after 5000
small min,
value the vibration
between 0 minamplitude of theindicating
and 400 min, bearing rapidly
that increases,
the bearing indicating
was in that
the the
initial run-
bearing entered a deterioration period.
ning in period; during 401–5000 min, the vibration amplitude of the bearing is in a stable
fluctuation state, indicating that the bearing was in a normal operating period; and after
Table 4. The test condition of the bearing test system (case 2).
5000 min, the vibration amplitude of the bearing rapidly increases, indicating that the
bearing enteredDynamic
Bearing a deterioration
Load period.
P/C
Rotating
Radial Load Axial Load
Type Rating (Cr) Speed
7008
Table 4. AC 19 KNof the bearing
The test condition 0.3 test system
4000 r/min
(case 2). 4.17 KN 4.58 KN

Dynamic Load Rotating

Bearing Type P/C Radial Load Axial Load
Rating (Cr) Speed
7008 AC 19 KN 0.3 4000 r/min 4.17 KN 4.58 KN
 Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 23 of 35
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Figure 20. Time domain wave of the vibration signal (case 2).

HGE,
Figure 20. HFE
Time and HSE
domain were
wavewave all applied
of the of
vibration signalto(case
analyze degradation stage with three differ-
2). (case
Figure 20. Time domain the vibration signal 2).
ent lengths: N = 200, N = 400, N = 800, where q = 3, e = 0.2 SD, f = 2, node = 3; the results are
shown HGE, HFE and
in Figure 21.HSE wereFigure
From all applied
21, ittoisanalyze
clear degradation
that for three stage with three
different different
data lengths, the
HGE,
lengths: N = HFE
200, N and
= HSE
400, N were
= 800, all
whereapplied
q = 3, eto= analyze
0.2
degradation feature sequences extracted based on HGE can accurately depict SD, f =degradation
2, node = 3; stage
the resultswith
the thre
degra-
ent lengths:
are
dation trend ofNbearing.
shown in = 200, N
Figure 21.
In=contrast,
From 400, N =the
Figure 800,
21, it where q =features
is clear
degradation that 3, e = 0.2extracted
for three SD, f = 2,
different nodeon= HFE
data
basedlengths, 3; theand
res
the degradation
shown in Figure feature sequences
21.reflect
Fromthe extracted
Figure based
21, it istrend on HGE
clearofthat can accurately
for three depict
different the
HSE cannot effectively degradation bearings, especially whendata leng
the data
degradation trend of bearing. In contrast, the degradation features extracted based on
degradation
length
HFE and of HSE feature
eachcannot
degradation sequences
stage
effectively
extracted
is short
reflect
based
(N = 200);trend
the degradation
on HGE
the extracted
of bearings,
can accurately
degradation
especially when
depict
feature se-the
dation
quence trend
the datashows
lengthanof bearing.
of irregular In contrast,
state.
each degradation The the
kurtosis
stage degradation
is short values of each
(N = 200); features
the extracted
degradation
extracted stage based
degradation were oncal-H
culated,
HSE as shown
featurecannot
sequence in Figure
effectively
shows 22. From
reflect
an irregular the Figure
degradation
state. 22, it trend
The kurtosis can
valuesbeof ofseen
eachthat
bearings, forespecially
thesestage
degradation three data t
when
lengths,
length of each degradation stage is short (N = 200); the extracted degradationreg-
were the degraded
calculated, as feature
shown in sequences
Figure 22. based
From on
Figure kurtosis
22, it did
can not
be exhibit
seen that significant
for these fea
three data lengths, the degraded feature sequences based on kurtosis did not exhibit
ularity.
quence shows an irregular state. The kurtosis values of each degradation stage w
significant regularity.
culated, as shown in Figure 22. From Figure 22, it can be seen that for these thr
lengths, the degraded feature sequences based on kurtosis did not exhibit signific
ularity.

Figure 21. The HGE, HFE and HSE of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 2).
Figure 21. The HGE, HFE and HSE of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 2).

Figure 21. The HGE, HFE and HSE of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 2).
 Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 24 of 35
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Figure 22. The HGE and kurtosis of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 2).

Figure
As 22. The HGE
in case anddata
1, 200 kurtosis
wereof rolling
takenbearing vibration signal
as a degradation (case(N
stage 2). = 200), and the vibration
Figure 22. The HGE and kurtosis of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 2).
signal As
wasindivided into
case 1, 200 28 degradation
data were taken as stages. We calculated
a degradation stage (N the HGE
= 200), andofthe
each degradation
vibration
stage
signal was divided into 28 degradation stages. We calculated the HGE of each degradation pre-
to obtain the degradation feature sequence of the rolling bearings. The dynamic
As in case 1, 200 data were taken as a degradation stage (N = 200), and the vib
diction
stage towas made
obtain thefor the degradation
degradation featurestage sequence
sequence of the corresponding
rolling bearings.toThe thedynamic
last 1600 min
signal
(stages was
20
prediction divided
towas
28, made
a totalinto9 28
ofthe
for degradation
degradation
degradation stages.
stages).
stage TheWe
sequence largecalculated tothe
sample sequence
corresponding theHGE ofof each
nine
last 1600 degra
mindegra-
stage
(stages
dation to20
obtain
stages 28,the
topredicted degradation
a total of the
by feature
9 degradation
GBMC sequence
stages).
model The of
is shown inthe
large rolling
sample
Figure bearings.
23.sequence
We sorted The
of the dynam
ninedata in
degradation
diction
the largewas stages
made
sample predicted
for the of
sequence by the GBMC
degradation model is shown
stage sequence
nine degradation in
stages from Figure 23.
corresponding We sorted
small to large, the
to the
andlast
then16
data in the large sample sequence of nine degradation stages from small to large, and then
(stages
grouped 20 to 28,
them, a total
taking Z = of
10.9Wedegradation stages).shown
drew a histogram, The large sample
in Figure 24. sequence of nine
grouped them, taking Z = 10. We drew a histogram, shown in Figure 24.
dation stages predicted by the GBMC model is shown in Figure 23. We sorted the
the large sample sequence of nine degradation stages from small to large, an
grouped them, taking Z = 10. We drew a histogram, shown in Figure 24.

Figure 23. Large sample sequence of the degradation stages (case 2).
Figure 23. Large sample sequence of the degradation stages (case 2).

Figure 23. Large sample sequence of the degradation stages (case 2).
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 25 of 35
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 25 of 35

Figure 24. Histogram of large sample sequences of degradation stages (case 2).

According to Equation (44), we calculated the estimated true values of nine degrada-
Figure 24. Histogram of large sample sequences of degradation stages (case 2).
tion stages to obtain the degradation feature prediction sequence. According to Equations
Figure 24. Histogram
(45)–(47), the estimated of large sample sequences
interval of degradation stages (casewas 2). obtained, where
According to Equation (44), weof the degradation
calculated the estimated stagetruesequence
values of nine degradation
the significance
stages to obtain the level was setfeature
degradation as 0.05, as shown
prediction in Figure
sequence. 25a. From
According Figure(45)–(47),
to Equations 25a, it can be
According to Equation (44), we calculated the estimated true values of nine degrada-
seen that between
the estimated 4000
interval anddegradation
of the 5000 min,stage the prediction
sequence was value of thewhere
obtained, degradation
the signifi- stage is
tion
cancestages
level to obtain
was set as the
0.05,degradation
as shown feature
in Figure prediction
25a. From
almost consistent with the degradation stage value. Between 5000 and 5600 min, the pre- sequence.
Figure 25a, According
it can be seen to Equations
that
(45)–(47),
between the and
4000 estimated
5000 min, interval of the degradation
thedownward
prediction value stage sequence was obtained, where
dicted sequence captured the trendofofthe thedegradation
degradation stage is
stage.almost
Fromconsis-
Figure 25a,
it can also be found that the estimated interval almost includes all the degradationitfeature
the
tentsignificance
with the level
degradation was set
stage as 0.05,
value. as
Betweenshown5000 in
andFigure
5600 25a.
min, From
the Figure
predicted 25a,
sequence can be
seen that the
captured between
downward 4000 trendand 5000 of themin, the prediction
degradation stage. From value of the
Figure 25a,degradation
it can also bestage is
values, with only one degradation feature value falling outside the estimated interval. Ac-
found that
almost the estimated
consistent with interval
the almost includes
degradation stage all the Between
value. degradation 5000feature
and values,
5600 withthe pre-
min,
cording
only one
todegradation
Equation (48), feature
the prediction
value falling
reliability
outside
HBestimated
the
is 90%, indicating
interval.
that
According
the estimated
to 25a,
dicted sequence
interval can captured
effectively trackthethe downward
evolution trend
trend of of
thethe degradation
degradation stage. From
stage. The Figure
dynamic
Equation (48), the prediction reliability
it can also be found that the estimated interval H B is 90%, indicating that the estimated
almost includes all the degradation feature interval
uncertainty
can effectively of track
the degradation
the evolution trend stageofsequence was calculated
the degradation as shown
stage. The dynamic in Figure 25b.
uncertainty
values,Figure
From with only 25b, one
it isdegradation
clear thatwas feature value
between 4000 falling outside the estimated interval. Ac-
of the degradation stage sequence calculated as and
shown 5000 min, the
in Figure 25b. uncertainty
From Figure 25b, fluctuates
cording to Equation
it is clearindicating
that between (48), the prediction reliability H B is 90%, indicating that the estimated
steadily, that4000theand 5000 min,
bearing was the
in auncertainty
stable operating fluctuates steadily,
period andindicating
the uncertainty
interval
that the can
bearingeffectively
was in a track
stable the evolution
operating period trend
andthe of the
the degradation
uncertainty stage.
stabilized at aThesmalldynamic
stabilized at a small value stage; after 5000 min, uncertainty rapidly increased, indi-
uncertainty
value stage; of the
after degradation
5000 min, the stage
uncertaintysequence
cating that the rolling bearing underwent serious deterioration. rapidly was calculated
increased, as
indicating shown
that the in Figure
rolling 25b.
From
bearing Figure 25b, itserious
underwent is clear that between 4000 and 5000 min, the uncertainty fluctuates
deterioration.
steadily, indicating that the bearing was in a stable operating period and the uncertainty
stabilized at a small value stage; after 5000 min, the uncertainty rapidly increased, indi-
cating that the rolling bearing underwent serious deterioration.

(a) Prediction result and estimated interval (b) Dynamic uncertainty sequence
Figure
Figure25.
25. Prediction resultsand
Prediction results and dynamic
dynamic evaluation
evaluation of rolling
of rolling bearingbearing degradation
degradation stages
stages based on based
onGBMC
GBMC model (case
model (case 2). 2).
(a) Prediction result and estimated interval (b) Dynamic uncertainty sequence
Figure 25. Prediction results and dynamic evaluation of rolling bearing degradation stages based
on GBMC model (case 2).
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW

The prediction results based on the GB model are shown in Figure 26, from w
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 can be Thefound that although
prediction the prediction
results based on the GB value
model of the
aredegradation
shown in Figure stage
26 of obtained
35
26, from w
GB model shows an overall downward trend, reflecting to some
can be found that although the prediction value of the degradation stage obtained extent the evolutio
of
GBthe rolling
model showsbearing degradation
an overall downward stage;trend,
the prediction
reflectingreliability
to some extent HB isthe
only 80%. T
evolutio
The prediction results based on the GB model are shown in Figure 26, from which
diction
of resultsbearing
theberolling based degradation
on the AR method stage; are prediction
the shown in Figure 27, H
reliability and
B isthe
only compar
it can found that although the prediction value of the degradation stage obtained via 80%. T
sults
the GBare
diction listed
results
model in Table
based
shows 5. the
on Todownward
an overall see
ARTable
method 5, although
trend, are shown
reflectingthe prediction
toin Figure
some extent27,errors
theand andcompar
the
evolution the cor
coefficient
trend of
sults are of the
thelisted
rolling bearing
inbearing
Table degradation
degradation
5. To stage; 5,
see Table stages
the obtained
prediction
although via Hthe
reliability
the predictionB isAR
only method
80%.and
errors are cor
The the alm
same as that
prediction
coefficient ofofthe
results thebearing
basedGBMC;degradation
on the the GBMC has
AR method are the obtained
shown
stages advantagevia
in Figure 27, of the
dynamic
and the evaluation
comparison
AR method of
are alm
results
tion are listed in Table 5. To see Table 5, although the prediction errors and the correlation
results.
same as that of the GBMC; the GBMC has the advantage of dynamic evaluation of
coefficient of the bearing degradation stages obtained via the AR method are almost
tion results.
the same as that of the GBMC; the GBMC has the advantage of dynamic evaluation of
prediction results.

Figure 26. Prediction results of rolling bearing degradation stages based on GB model (cas
26.Prediction
Figure 26.
Figure results
Prediction of rolling
results bearing bearing
of rolling degradation stages basedstages
degradation on GB model
based(case
on GB2). model (cas

27.Prediction
Figure 27.
Figure Predictionresults of rolling
results bearingbearing
of rolling degradation stages basedstages
degradation on AR based
methodon
(case
AR2).method (ca
Figure 27. Prediction
Table 5. The comparative results
analysis of rolling
results (casebearing
2). degradation stages based on AR method (ca
Table 5. The comparative analysis results (case 2).
AR Method GBMC
Table 5. The comparative analysis
ARresults (case 2).
Method GBMC
Average absolute error 0.0503 0.0575
Average absolute
Correlation coefficienterror 0.0503
0.6592
AR Method 0.6593 0.0575
GBMC
Correlation coefficient
Average absolute error 0.6592
0.0503 0.6593
0.0575
Correlation coefficient 0.6592 0.6593
Therefore, the above analysis indicates that the proposed GBMC-based degr
stage prediction method is superior to the GB-based and AR-based degradation sta
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 27 of 35

Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 27 of 35

Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 27 of 35
Therefore, the above analysis indicates that the proposed GBMC-based degradation
stage prediction method is superior to the GB-based and AR-based degradation stage
5.3. Case 3 methods.
prediction
5.3. Case 3
The experimental data were the full life cycle vibration data of rolling bearings from
The
Caseexperimental
5.3. Center
the 3 for Intelligent dataMaintenance
were the fullSystemslife cycle(IMS),
vibration data of of
University rolling bearings
Cincinnati from
[44]. The
the Center
The for Intelligent
experimental Maintenance
data were the Systems
full life (IMS),
cycle University
vibration data of
of
test rig [11] consisted of a spindle, four test bearings, an AC motor and a rub belt, as shown Cincinnati
rolling [44].
bearings The
from
test
in rig
theFigure[11]28.
Center consisted
forThe testofbearing
Intelligenta spindle,wasfour
Maintenance test bearings,
Systems
a Rexnord an AC
(IMS),
ZA-2115 motor
University
double and
row of aCincinnati
rub belt,
bearing. Theas shown
[44].
shaft The
was
indriven
Figure
test rig by 28.
[11]an The test
consisted
AC motor bearing
of aand was
spindle, a
coupled Rexnord
fourbytestrub ZA-2115
bearings, double
belts. Aanradial
AC motor row
load of bearing.
and a rub
6000 The
lb belt,
was asshaft wasto
shown
added
driven
in Figure
the by and
shaft an
28. ACThe motor and
test bearing
bearing by coupled by rub belts.
was mechanism.
a spring a Rexnord TheArotation
ZA-2115 radial
double load of bearing.
row
speed 60002000
was lb was
The
rpm. added
shaft
Thewasto
ac-
the shaft and
driven by anwas
celerometer bearing by
ACinstalled a
motor and spring mechanism.
coupled
on each by rub
bearing The rotation
belts. The
housing. A radial speed
sampling was 2000
loadfrequency rpm.
of 6000 lbwas The
was20added ac-
kHz,
celerometer
to the
and shaft
each was
fileand installed
bearing20
contained on480
by aeach bearing
spring
data. housing.The
mechanism.
The collection Therotation
sampling
interval frequency
speed
between wastwo
each was
2000 20was
rpm.
files kHz,
The10
and
min. The data collection started at 10:32:39 on 12 February 2004 and ended at 6:22:3910
each file
accelerometer contained
was 20
installed480on data.
each The collection
bearing interval
housing. The between
sampling each two
frequency files
was was
20 kHz,
on
min.
19 The
eachdata
andFebruary, collection
file 2004.
contained
A totalstarted
20of480 atfiles
984data.10:32:39
The on 12 February
werecollection
collected, interval
and the 2004 and ended
between
experiment each at
two
lasted 6:22:39
files on8
was
for 163
1910 February,
min.
h. At theTheend,2004.
datathe A total
collection of
outer ring 984
startedfiles were
at 10:32:39
of bearing collected,
1 was and
on seriously
12 February the experiment
2004 and ended
deteriorated. lasted
Due at for
to6:22:39 163
the large8
on
h.19At
amount the
Februaryend, the
2004.
of data outer
in A total
each ring of bearing
of 984 and
package files the
were 1 was seriously
collected,range
fluctuation and the deteriorated. Due
experimentbeing
of magnitude to
lastedalmostthe large
for 163con-8 h.
amount
At the of
end, data
the in each
outer package
ring of and
bearing the
1 fluctuation
was seriously range of magnitude
deteriorated.
sistent, 10 representative data were selected from each package to form the bearing life Due being
to the almost
large con-
amount
sistent,
of data
data, 10
the representative
indata
eachlength
package was data
and 984 were
the 10 selected
× fluctuation
and the rangefrom each
waveform package
of magnitude
of to formalmost
being
the vibration the bearing
data lifein
isconsistent,
shown
data,
10 the data
representative
Figure 29. lengthdatawas
were984 × 10
selected and
fromthe waveform
each package of the
to vibration
form the data
bearing is
lifeshown
data, in
the
Figure 29. was 984 × 10 and the waveform of the vibration data is shown in Figure 29.
data length

Figure 28. Schematic of the bearing test rig.

Figure28.
Figure Schematicofofthe
28.Schematic thebearing
bearingtest
testrig.
rig.

Figure 29. Time domain wave of the vibration signal (case 3).
Figure 29. Time domain wave of the vibration signal (case 3).
It can be seen from Figure 29 that the vibration amplitude of the rolling bearing is
It can stable
relatively be seen from7000
before Figure
min29and
that the
the vibration range
fluctuation amplitude
is notof the rolling
large, bearing
indicating is
that the
relatively stable before 7000 min and the fluctuation range is not large, indicating that
rolling bearing is in the normal operation period. From 7000 min, the vibration amplitude the
rolling bearing is in the normal operation period. From 7000 min, the vibration amplitude
 Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 28 of 35

It can be seen from Figure 29 that the vibration amplitude of the rolling bearing is
relatively stable before 7000 min and the fluctuation range is not large, indicating that the
rolling bearing is in the normal operation period. From 7000 min, the vibration amplitude
of rolling bearings begins to gradually increase, indicating that rolling bearing performance
begins to deteriorate until it fails.
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW HGE, HFE and HSE were all applied to analyze degradation stage with three different 28 of 35
lengths: N = 200, N = 400, N = 800 and N = 1000, where q = 3, e = 0.2 SD, f = 2, node = 3;
the results are shown in Figure 30. From Figure 30, it is clear that for four different data
lengths, the degradation feature sequences extracted based on HGE can accurately depict
oftherolling
degradation trendbegins
bearings of the bearing. Before increase,
to gradually 7000 min, the entropy value
indicating of HGE fluctuates
that rolling bearing perfor-
smoothly with little change, while
mance begins to deteriorate until it fails. after 7000 min, the entropy value of HGE begins to
gradually decline. The trend in HGE is consistent with the trend
HGE, HFE and HSE were all applied to analyze degradation stage with in rolling bearing vibration
three differ-
signal. In contrast, the degradation features extracted based on HFE and HSE cannot
ent lengths: N = 200, N = 400, N = 800 and N = 1000, where q = 3, e = 0.2 SD, f = 2, node = 3;
effectively reflect the degradation trend of bearings, especially when the data length of
the results are shown in Figure 30. From Figure 30, it is clear that for four different data
each degradation stage is short (N = 200 and N = 400); the extracted degradation feature
lengths,
sequence the degradation
shows an irregularfeature
state.sequences
The kurtosisextracted
values based
of eachon HGE can accurately
degradation stage were depict
the
calculated, as shown in Figure 31. From Figure 31, it can be found that whenHGE
degradation trend of the bearing. Before 7000 min, the entropy value of fluctuates
N = 200
smoothly
and N = 400,withthelittle change,
degraded while
feature after 7000
sequences min,
based onthe entropy
kurtosis value
do not of HGE
exhibit begins to
obvious
gradually
regularity.decline.
AlthoughThe the trend in HGE
degradation is consistent
feature with the
sequence based trend inshows
on kurtosis rolling
an bearing
upward vibra-
trend
tion whenInNcontrast,
signal. = 800 and theNdegradation
= 1000, this trend is opposite
features extracted to based
the degradation
on HFE and trend
HSEof cannot
rolling bearings.
effectively reflect the degradation trend of bearings, especially when the data length of
As in case 1 and case 2, 200 data were taken as a degradation stage (N = 200), and
each degradation stage is short (N = 200 and N = 400); the extracted degradation feature
the vibration signal was divided into 49 degradation stages. (The last degradation stage
sequence shows an irregular state. The kurtosis values of each degradation stage were
contains 240 data.) We calculated the HGE of each degradation stage to obtain the degrada-
calculated,
tion featureassequence
shown in Figure
of the 31. bearings.
rolling From Figure 31, it canprediction
The dynamic be found was thatmade
whenfor N the
= 200 and
Ndegradation
= 400, the degraded
stage sequence corresponding to the last 6000 min (stage 20 to 49, a total of regu-
feature sequences based on kurtosis do not exhibit obvious
larity. Althoughstages).
30 degradation the degradation
The large samplefeature sequence
sequence of 30based on kurtosis
degradation shows anviaupward
stages predicted
trend when N = 800 and N = 1000, this trend is opposite to the degradation
the GBMC model is shown in Figure 32. We sorted the data in the large sample trend of
sequence of rolling
30 degradation stages from small to large and then grouped them, taking Z = 10. We drew
bearings.
a histogram, shown in Figure 33.

Figure 30. The HGE, HFE and HSE of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 3).
Figure 30. The HGE, HFE and HSE of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 3).
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 29 of 35

Figure 31. The HGE and kurtosis of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 3).

As in case 1 and case 2, 200 data were taken as a degradation stage (

vibration signal was divided into 49 degradation stages. (The last degrad
tains 240 data.) We calculated the HGE of each degradation stage to obt
tion feature sequence of the rolling bearings. The dynamic prediction w
degradation stage sequence corresponding to the last 6000 min (stage 20
30 degradation stages). The large sample sequence of 30 degradation stag
the GBMC model is shown in Figure 32. We sorted the data in the large s
of 30 degradation stages from small to large and then grouped them, ta
drew a histogram, shown in Figure 33.
Figure 31. The HGE and kurtosis of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 3).
Figure 31. The HGE and kurtosis of rolling bearing vibration signal (case 3).

As in case 1 and case 2, 200 data were taken as a degradation stage (N = 200
vibration signal was divided into 49 degradation stages. (The last degradation
tains 240 data.) We calculated the HGE of each degradation stage to obtain the
tion feature sequence of the rolling bearings. The dynamic prediction was ma
degradation stage sequence corresponding to the last 6000 min (stage 20 to 49
30 degradation stages). The large sample sequence of 30 degradation stages pre
the GBMC model is shown in Figure 32. We sorted the data in the large sample
of 30 degradation stages from small to large and then grouped them, taking Z
drew a histogram, shown in Figure 33.

(a) Stages 20–34.

Figure 32. Cont.

(a) Stages 20–34.

 Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW

Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 30 of 35

(b) Stages 35–49.

(b) Stages 35–49.
Figure 32. Large sample sequence of the degradation stages (case 3).
Figure 32. Large sample
Figure sequence
32. Large of the
sample degradation
sequence stages
of the (case 3).
degradation stages (case 3).

(a) Stages 20–34.

Figure 33. Cont. (a) Stages 20–34.
Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW

Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 31 of 35

(b) Stages 35–49.

Figure 33. Histogram
Figure of large sample
33. Histogram of sequences of degradation
large sample sequencesstages
of(case 3).
degradation stages (case 3).
According to Equations (44)–(47), the estimated true value and the estimated interval of
the degradation According to Equations
stage sequence (44)–(47),
can be obtained, where the thesignificance
estimated true
level wasvalue and the es
set as 0.05,
as shownof the degradation stage sequence can be obtained, where the significance
in Figure 34a. From Figure 34a, it can be seen that between 4000 and 7000 min,
the predicted
0.05, as sequence
showncanincapture
Figure the34a.
smoothFrom fluctuation
Figuretrend34a,ofitthe
can degradation
be seen that stage.betwee
Between 7000 and 10,000 min, the predicted sequence can capture the downward trend
of the min, the predicted
degradation stage. From sequence
Figure 34a,canit capture
can also be the smooth
found fluctuation
that the estimated in- trend of
stage.includes
terval almost Between 7000
all the and 10,000
degradation min,
feature the predicted
values, sequencefeature
with four degradation can capture
values trend
falling outside the estimated interval. According to Equation
of the degradation stage. From Figure 34a, it can also be found th (48), the prediction
reliability HB is 83.87%, indicating that the estimated interval can effectively track the
interval almost includes all the degradation feature values, with four deg
evolution trend of the degradation stage. The dynamic uncertainty of the degradation
values falling
stage sequence outside
was calculated the estimated
as shown in Figure 34b. interval. According
From Figure 34b, it istoclear
Equation
that (48
between reliability HB is
4000 and 7000 83.87%,
min, indicating
the uncertainty that the
stabilizes at a estimated interval
small-value stage, can effective
indicating
that thelution
bearingtrend
was inof a stable operating period; after 7000 min, the uncertainty
the degradation stage. The dynamic uncertainty of the de rapidly
increased, indicating that the rolling bearing underwent serious deterioration.
sequence was calculated as shown in Figure 34b. From Figure 34b, it is cl
The prediction results based on the GB model are shown in Figure 35, from which
4000
it can be foundandthat7000 min,thethe
although uncertainty
prediction value ofstabilizes at a stage
the degradation small-value
obtained via stage, ind
the GBbearing
model showswas in a stable operating period; after 7000 min, the uncertainty ra
an overall downward trend, reflecting to some extent the evolution
trend of rolling bearing degradation stage, the prediction reliability HB is only 77.42%. The
indicating that the rolling bearing underwent serious deterioration.
prediction results based on the AR method are shown in Figure 36, and the comparison
results are listed in Table 6. Consulting Table 6, although the prediction errors and the
correlation coefficient of bearing degradation stages obtained via the AR method are almost
the same as that of the GBMC, the GBMC has the advantage of dynamic evaluation of
prediction results.
 reliability HB is 83.87%, indicating that the estimated interval can effectively track the evo-
lution trend of the degradation stage. The dynamic uncertainty of the degradation stage
sequence was calculated as shown in Figure 34b. From Figure 34b, it is clear that between
4000 and 7000 min, the uncertainty stabilizes at a small-value stage, indicating that the
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082
bearing was in a stable operating period; after 7000 min, the uncertainty rapidly increased,
32 of 35
indicating that the rolling bearing underwent serious deterioration.

Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 32 of 35

Sensors 2023, 23, x FOR PEER REVIEW 32 of 35

The prediction results based on the GB model are shown in Figure 35, from which it
can beThe prediction
found results based
that although on the GB
the prediction model
value aredegradation
of the shown in Figure stage35, from which
obtained it
via the
canmodel
GB be found thatan
shows although the prediction
overall downward value
trend, of the degradation
reflecting to some extent stage
theobtained
evolutionvia the
trend
GB model shows an overall downward trend, reflecting to some extent the
of rolling bearing degradation stage, the prediction reliability HB is only 77.42%. The pre- evolution trend
of rolling
diction bearing
results degradation
based on the ARstage, the prediction
method are shown reliability
in Figure 36,HB is
andonly
the77.42%. The pre-
comparison re-
diction results based on the AR method are shown in Figure 36, and the
sults are listed in Table 6. Consulting Table 6, although the prediction errors and the cor- comparison re-
sults arecoefficient
relation listed in Table 6. Consulting
of bearing Tablestages
degradation 6, although
obtainedthe via
prediction errors and
the AR method arethe cor-
almost
relation
the
(a) Prediction result same
and coefficient
as that
estimated of bearing degradation
of the GBMC, the(b)
interval GBMC stages obtained
has uncertainty
Dynamic the advantage via the AR method are almost
of dynamic evaluation of
sequence
the same as
prediction that of the GBMC, the GBMC has the advantage of dynamic evaluation of
results.
Figure 34. Prediction
Prediction results
prediction
Figure 34. results.resultsand
anddynamic
dynamicevaluation
evaluationofofrolling
rolling bearing
bearing degradation
degradation stages
stages based
based on
on GBMC model (case 3).
GBMC model (case 3).

Figure 35. Prediction results of rolling bearing degradation stages based on GB model (case 3).
Figure 35.Prediction
Figure 35. Predictionresults of rolling
results bearing
of rolling degradation
bearing stagesstages
degradation based on GB model
based on GB(case 3). (case 3).
model

36.Prediction
Figure 36.
Figure Predictionresults of rolling
results bearing
of rolling degradation
bearing stagesstages
degradation based on AR method
based (case 3). (case 3).
on AR method
Figure 36. Prediction results of rolling bearing degradation stages based on AR method (case 3).
Table 6. The comparative analysis results (case 3).
Table 6. The comparative analysis results (case 3).
AR Method GBMC
Average absolute error AR Method
0.0310 GBMC
0.0306
Sensors 2023, 23, 9082 33 of 35

Table 6. The comparative analysis results (case 3).

AR Method GBMC
Average absolute error 0.0310 0.0306
Correlation coefficient 0.7366 0.7007

Therefore, the above analysis indicates that the proposed GBMC-based degradation
stage prediction method is superior to the GB-based and AR-based degradation stage
prediction methods.

6. Conclusions
In this paper, a novel degradation stage prediction method based on HGE and GBMC
is proposed for rolling bearings to effectively evaluate their degradation condition. Firstly,
HGE is proposed to obtain multilevel degradation features at lower and higher frequencies.
The superiority of HGE to HSE and HFE was verified by analyzing the simulation signals.
The research indicates that compared with HFE, HSE and kurtosis, HGE can be used
to extract entire information and effectively describe dynamic changes in the complex
signal. Subsequently, GBMC, which combines the grey model, bootstrap method and
Markov chain, is proposed to obtain more accurate degradation stage prediction results of
rolling bearings compared with the GB model and AR method. Finally, three parameter
indicators were employed to evaluate the prediction results from different perspectives.
More significantly, the proposed novelty degradation stage prediction method was applied
to three rolling bearing experimental examples. The experimental results indicate that HGE
shows the best performance in extracting the degradation features of vibration signals
and GBMC obtains the best degradation stage prediction results. The proposed method is
promising and should be applied in feature extraction and degradation trend prediction of
other mechanical equipment. In the future work, more real-world rolling bearing vibration
data (such as XJTU-SY bearing datasets) should be employed to verify the effectiveness of
the proposed method. A practical implication of the proposed method in future works is to
achieve the online prediction of rolling bearing degradation stages. Further research can
also focus on multi-source rolling bearing prognostics under variable working conditions.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, L.C. and W.M.; methodology, L.C.; validation, L.C.;
formal analysis, Z.G.; investigation, L.C.; resources, Z.G.; data curation, L.C.; writing—original draft
preparation, L.C.; writing—review and editing, Z.G.; visualization, L.C.; supervision, W.M.; project
administration, W.M. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.
Data Availability Statement: The data used to support the findings of this study are available from
the corresponding author upon request.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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