MA Crisis Scenario – Tension over Taiwan

Tensions over the Taiwan Strait have been rising in recent years, especially since the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won both the presidency and legislature in Taiwan in
2016 (repeated in 2020). The DPP rejects the ‘One-China Principle’ and asserts Taiwanese
self-determination. The crisis has been exacerbated by the situation in Hong Kong, and the
damage this has done to the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ policy. Moreover, there have been
increasing high-level interactions between Taiwan and the great powers – most notably the
United States. In response, and to deter Taiwan from moving further in the direction of
declaring formal independence, China has stepped-up its military exercises in the Taiwan
strait, increased economic pressure and political rhetoric.

In our hypothetical Crisis Scenario, the situation has now come to a head. Emboldened by its
election victory and polls that show a majority of Taiwanese regard themselves as distinct
from the mainland, the DPP-led government put forward legislation for formal
independence. As our scenario begins, the Taiwanese parliament has just ratified the
decision to sign the independence document. The formal signing of the independence
declaration is expected to happen at a ceremony in the Taiwanese parliament in the coming
days. This will formally announce Taiwan as the Republic of China, and will finally end the
1992 Consensus between the PRC and Taiwan, which clearly stated that there is only one
China.

At present, 15 states formally recognise Taiwan as the Republic of China. The DPP hope that
its risky move will lead to many more states recognising its self-determination and
independence in the international system. China, viewing this as a great insult to its
prestige, has vowed to prevent this.

How will this crisis end? Can it be resolved by peaceful means, or is war all but inevitable?

It’s over to you. How will you achieve your stated objectives?

Instructions and Objectives

Each of you has a role to play in the crisis scenario. You will be serving as a government
advisor for one of 9 countries. Each nation has priorities and objectives (detailed below).
You must provide advice that seeks to fulfil those objectives. Please note that many states
have complex and ambiguous positions on this issue. This is reflected in their stated
objectives. You must navigate your way through these ambiguities.

Please note that you have various tools at your disposal. They come under the general term
‘Grand Strategy’, and are normally categorised in the following way: Diplomatic,
Intelligence, Military, Economic, Cyber.
The crisis scenario is designed to illustrate, and let you explore, important concepts in
international politics and strategy. As you engage with the scenario, please keep such
concepts/ideas in mind. Moreover, please refer to these important concepts and the
relevant academic literature when writing your policy paper. Details on the Policy Paper
assessment can be found in the Module Handbooks for 700351 & 700352.

Each country has been allocated a private channel on the FBLP Politics MA Crisis Scenario
Team on Microsoft Teams. This channel enables you to exchange ideas and information
with other advisors from your allocated country. Please use this facility, as it will improve
your understanding of the issues and hopefully enhance your policy recommendations.

China

China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province, and seeks reunification. It has put forward
the ‘one country, two systems’ formula as a means for reunification. This has been rejected
by Taiwan, especially in light of recent events in Hong Kong. In response to growing calls for
independence in Taiwan, in 2005 China passed the Anti-Secession Law, which gives China
the right to use non-peaceful means should Taiwan try to formally secede from the PRC.
China has expressed concern at increasing US-Taiwan high-level political interactions and
the possible implications of the Taiwan Defence Act (currently before the US Congress,
which would strengthen the ability of the US to defend Taiwan in the face of Chinese
military action). China is also concerned by the recent AUKUS security pact, signed by the
US, UK and Australia, which it believes is an attempt to counter Chinese interests in the
region. Beijing describes the new pact as ‘extremely irresponsible’.

In response to the electoral success of the DPP, China has increased pressure on Taiwan and
its allies – including more aggressive military exercises.

China’s overwhelming objective is to prevent Taiwan formally declaring independence, by

any means necessary. That being said, China would of course prefer to avoid war if possible
– especially war with the other great powers.

Main Objective: prevent formal Taiwanese independence

United States

Although the US does not formally recognise Taiwan as an independent nation-state, in

recent years it has increased support for, and high-level interactions with, the island. The
1979 US-PRC Joint Communique switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing,
formally recognising the PRC as the only legal government of China, and stating that Taiwan
is part of China. Therefore, the US does not currently support Taiwanese independence.
That being said, the US maintains strong unofficial relations with Taiwan. Indeed, the 1979
Taiwan Relations Act provides a legal basis for a relationship between the US and Taiwan,
and enshrines the US commitment to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defensive capabilities.
Moreover, the 2018 Taiwan Travel Act permitted and encouraged high-level national
security interactions with Taiwan.
In August 2020, the US approved the sale of 66 advanced F-16v fighters to Taiwan. Indeed,
between 2007-2018, US arm sales to Taiwan = $25 billion

The US insists on the peaceful resolution of differences between China and Taiwan.

Main Objectives: maintain the status quo, and prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Taiwan

With the continued success of the Democratic Progressive Party (2016, 2020), which rejects
the 1992 Consensus, Taiwan is intent on achieving their independence. Indeed, a 2018 poll
revealed that 55% of the island’s population regard themselves as purely Taiwanese, 38% as
Taiwanese/Chinese, and only 4% as Chinese. At the same time, Taiwan has important
cultural and economic links to China. The PRC is Taiwan’s main trading partner = 30% of the
island’s trade.

Main Objectives: achieve formal independence, and avoid war if possible.

United Kingdom

Although the UK does not formally recognise Taiwan, it has been increasing economic ties to
Taipei. Moreover, as a consequence of Chinese government actions in Hong Kong, Sino-
British relations have deteriorated significantly. In July of 2020, the UK announced that it
was offering a path to citizenship to 2.9 million people in Hong Kong. China has called on
Britain to ‘correct this mistake’. Yet, in November of that same year the UK government
declared that the PRC was in breach of the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong.
There is now talk of the UK perhaps formally recognising the independence of Taiwan and
committing itself to the defence of the island. Should the US become involved in a conflict
to defend Taiwan, it is highly likely that the UK would support its ally.

Main Objectives: Push for greater Taiwanese self-determination, prevent Chinese invasion
of Taiwan.

Australia

Via the 1972 Joint Communiqué with the PRC, Australia formally recognises Taiwan as a
province of China. However, Australia has increasing connections (trade, culture, etc.) with
Taiwan, and its relationship with the PRC has deteriorated of late. Australia seeks to balance
its interests with both the US and China, not wishing to upset either of these great powers.
At the same time, it wishes to promote democracy and stability in the region.

Grey-zone activities (involving paramilitary forces and economic coercion) and Chinese
expansionism in the South China Sea have caused concern within Australian political circles.
In 2020, Australia shifted policy from neutral bystander in the South China Sea to active if
cautious participant. In particular, Australia is concerned about the “militarisation of the
South China Sea” and threats to free movement on the seas. Australia is committed to
maintaining freedom of navigation on the seas, and as such actively rejects several Chinese
claims of territorial waters. In response to the deteriorating security situation, in September
2021 Australia established the AUKUS security pact with the US and UK.

Main Objectives: maintain stability in the region, promote democracy and freedom of
navigation, maintain ANZUS alliance and AUKUS security pact.

Japan

Although Japan does not formally recognise Taiwan, it regards Taiwan as an ‘extremely
important partner’. Japan sees Taiwan as a bulwark against Chinese expansion. Japan has
unresolved tensions with China over certain islands (Senkaku Islands). Japan seeks a dual
approach to China: increasing economic ties, whilst containing Chinese expansionism. Tokyo
has never formally accepted the One China Principle. Additionally, there are important US
bases in Okinawa, which could be targeted in any future war. However, a PRC takeover of
Taiwan would be an existential national security threat to Japan – for one, it would threaten
the natural gas supply route to Japan.

Japan is somewhat unique, because Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution forbids the use of
force to resolve international disputes, and thereby severely restricts the use of the
Japanese Self-Defence Forces (JSDF). However, 2015 legislation has somewhat expanded
Japanese options, to include the use of Japanese forces for collective self-defence. The
Japanese government is currently looking to reform Article 9, to enable even more freedom
of action in the military sphere. However, there is much opposition to this in Japan.

Main Objectives: prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, increase economic ties with
China.

India

Although there are no formal diplomatic relations between India and Taiwan, economic and
cultural exchanges between the two states have increased in recent years. In this sense,
India is an important potential beneficiary of Taiwan’s ‘Southbound Policy’. Nonetheless,
India has thus far been reluctant to openly support Taiwan in the international system. This
is mainly because India does not wish to antagonise the PRC, with whom it has tense
relations over the contested border region of Ladakh. Also, India is wary of China’s
increasingly close relationship with Pakistan. Finally, India is conscious of the need to
balance China’s growing power in the region. As a consequence of these factors, Indian
policy towards Taiwan requires careful balancing.

Main Objectives: prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, don’t antagonise China, enhance
economic relations with Taiwan.

Russia

Russia has a growing strategic partnership with China. Moscow supports China’s policy of
reunification with Taiwan. However, it would prefer this to occur without the use of military
power. Russia is also looking to expand economic and trade activities in the Indo-Pacific
region. Moreover, Russia has been critical of US alliance-building efforts in the Pacific
region. In this sense, for Russia there are broader balance of power issues at play – Russia
seeks to limit US influence in the region. The main vehicle to limit US influence in the region
is via the strategic partnership with China.

Main Objectives: promote China-Taiwan reunification, prevent war, limit US influence and
alliance-building measures in the region.

North Korea

North Korea is a close ally of China, and relies on Chinese economic support and trade, and
as such supports reunification with Taiwan. It has been a strong critic of US policy in the
region, criticising Western interference in what it regards as internal Chinese affairs. Due to
its own tense relations with the US, North Korea would like to see a reduction of US power
in the Indo-Pacific region. That being said, North Korea is conscious of its vulnerability, and
in recent years has engaged more positively with the US, whilst still engaging in provocative
acts when necessary.

Main Objectives: promote China-Taiwan reunification, limit US influence and alliance-

building measures in the region, but don’t antagonise the US too much.