Pakistan Today

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND INDIA

 Border And Its Importance
The India-Pakistan border is the international boundary that separates the nations of the Republic
of India and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. At its northern end is the Line of Control, which
separates Indian-administered Kashmir from Pakistani-administered Kashmir; and at its southern
end is Sir Creek, a tidal estuary in the Rann of Kutch between the Indian state of Gujarat and the
Pakistani province of Sindh.
Arising from the partition of British India in 1947, the border covers the provincial boundaries of
Gujarat and Rajasthan with Sindh, and the Radcliff Line between the partitions of Punjab. It
traverses a variety of terrain in the northwestern region of the subcontinent, ranging from major
urban areas to inhospitable deserts.
Since the beginning of the India–Pakistan conflict shortly after the two countries' conjoined
independence, it has been the site of numerous cross-border military standoffs and full-scale
wars.
The border's total length is 3,323 kilometres (2,065 mi) according to figures given by the PBS; it
is also ranked as one of the most dangerous international boundaries in the world, based on an
article written in Foreign Policy in 2011. During the nighttime, the India–Pakistan border is
distinctly visible from outer space due to the 150,000 floodlights installed by India on
approximately 50,000 poles.

 Political Issues Between Pak – India Border

India and Pakistan have fought in numerous armed conflicts since their independence. There are
three major wars that have taken place between the two states, namely in 1947, 1965 and the
Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971. In addition to this was the unofficial Kargil War in 1999
and some border skirmishes. Major conflicts between India and Pakistan, War of On both sides
of the disputed border, an increase in territorial skirmishes that started in late 2016 and escalated
into 2018 killed hundreds of civilians and made thousand homeless.1947 and War of 1965, and a
small-scale Kargil War in 1999, were triggered by conflict over the border of Kashmir.

 War of 1965
The Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 started following the culmination of skirmishes that took place
between April 1965 and September 1965 and Pakistan's Operation Gibraltar, which was designed
to infiltrate forces into Jammu and Kashmir to precipitate an insurgency against rule by India.
India retaliated by launching a full-scale military attack on West Pakistan. The seventeen-day
war caused thousands of casualties on both sides and witnessed the largest engagement of
armored vehicles and the largest tank battle since World War II. It ended in a United
Nations (UN) mandated ceasefire and the subsequent issuance of the Tashkent Declaration.

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 War of 1971
Pakistan, since independence, was geo-politically divided into two major regions, West
Pakistan and East Pakistan. East Pakistan was occupied mostly by Bengali people. After a
Pakistani military operation and a genocide on Bengalis in December 1971, following a political
crisis in East Pakistan, the situation soon spiralled out of control in East Pakistan and India
intervened in favour of the rebelling Bengali populace. The conflict, a brief but bloody war,
resulted in the independence of East Pakistan. After the surrender of Pakistani forces, East
Pakistan became the independent nation of Bangladesh.

 Kargil war
During the winter months of 1998–99, the Indian army vacated its posts at very high peaks
in Kargil sector in Kashmir as it used to do every year. Pakistani Army intruded across the Line
of Control and occupied the posts. Indian army discovered this in May 1999 when the snow
thawed. This resulted in intense fighting between Indian and Pakistani forces, known as
the Kargil conflict. Backed by the Indian Air Force, the Indian Army regained many of the posts
that Pakistan had occupied. Pakistan later withdrew from the remaining portion under
international pressure and high casualties.

 Water disputes

The Indus Waters Treaty governs the rivers that flow from India into Pakistan. Water is cited as
one possible cause for a conflict between the two nations, but to date issues such as the Nimoo
Bazgo Project have been resolved through diplomacy.

 Bengal refugee crisis

In 1949, India recorded close to 1 million Hindu refugees, who flooded into West Bengal and
other states from East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), owing to communal violence, intimidation
and repression from authorities. The plight of the refugees outraged Hindus and Indian
nationalists, and the refugee population drained the resources of Indian states, which were unable
to absorb them. While not ruling out war, Prime Minister Nehru and Sardar Patel invited Liaquat
Ali Khan for talks in Delhi. Although many Indians termed this appeasement, Nehru signed a
pact with Liaquat Ali Khan that pledged both nations to the protection of minorities and creation
of minority commissions. Khan and Nehru also signed a trade agreement, and committed to
resolving bilateral conflicts through peaceful means. Steadily, hundreds of thousands of Hindus
returned to East Pakistan, but the thaw in relations did not last long, primarily owing to
the Kashmir conflict.

 Insurgency in Kashmir (1989–present)

According to some reports published by the Council of Foreign Relations, the Pakistan military
and the ISI have provided covert support to terrorist groups active in Kashmir, including the al-

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Qaeda affiliate Jaish-e-Mohammed. Pakistan has denied any involvement in terrorist activities in
Kashmir, arguing that it only provides political and moral support to the secessionist groups who
wish to escape Indian rule. Many Kashmiri militant groups also maintain their headquarters
in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which is cited as further proof by the Indian government.
Journalist Stephen Suleyman Schwartz notes that several militant and criminal groups are
"backed by senior officers in the Pakistani army, the country's ISI intelligence establishment and
other armed bodies of the state.

 2001 Indian Parliament attack

The 2001 Indian Parliament attack was an attack at the Parliament of India in New Delhi on 13
December 2001, during which fourteen people, including the five men who attacked the
building, were killed. The perpetrators were Lashkar-e-Taiba (Let) and Jaish-e-
Mohammed (JeM) terrorists. The attack led to the deaths of five terrorists, six Delhi
Police personnel, two Parliament Security Service personnel and a gardener, in total 14and to
increased tensions between India and Pakistan, resulting in the 2001–02 India–Pakistan standoff.

 2007 Samjhauta Express bombings

The 2007 Samjhauta Express bombings was a terrorist attack targeted on the Samjhauta
Express train on 18 February. The Samjhauta Express is an international train that runs from
New Delhi, India to Lahore, Pakistan, and is one of two trains to cross the India-Pakistan border.
At least 68 people were killed, mostly Pakistani civilians but also some Indian security personnel
and civilians.

 POLITICAL RELATIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY

The participants from both countries in this group, most of who were retired diplomats and
military officials felt that disputes and differences between the two countries had created a
serious LACK OF TRUST as one of the first key factors between the two countries affecting
bilateral relations since they became independent in 1947.

 KASHMIR dispute
The key factor which has bedeviled PakistanIndia relations is the KASHMIR dispute. The
participants felt Kashmir has been at the center of the conflict for the past 30 years, and could act
as a flashpoint for both the countries anytime. Currently, India demands the issue to be resolved
through bilateral negotiations to which both countries have agreed to the SIMLA agreement of
1972.

 Economic burdens of war on India and Pakistan

 Pakistan-India Defense Spending – A Comparison
In 2016, the world spent U.S. $1686 billion that was around 2.3 per cent of global gross domestic
product (GDP). India plans to spend $ 55.7 billion in 2017 which is 2.25 percent of its GDP; in

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comparison Pakistan’s defense budget is $9 billion which is 3.4 percent of its total economy.
Thus, Pakistan trails far behind India in defense spending; its financial provision is almost 7
times short of India’s defense resources. It has to defend its autonomy and meaningfulness in the
South Asian state system within these limited resources. This is an attempt to understand the
need and importance of defense spending for a nation-state, examine a comparative analysis of
India and Pakistan’s patterns of defense spending and its impact on Pakistan.

 DIAGRAMATICAL EXPLAINATION

According to Global Index of Defense Budgets, India has surpassed Germany at eighth position
in highest military expenditure. It spends more on national defense compared to Brazil, South
Korea, Italy and Canada. Pakistan on the other hand is on the 27 number of the same index;
accordingly, it is expected that by 2020 India will rank third in world defense expenditure of 70
billion dollars after USA and China.

 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

a number of studies both qualitative and quantitative have been done to demonstrate the linkage
between the defense spending and the increase in economic growth of a nation-state. The best
example is the European Union that started with the Marshall Plan,taking roots after the
establishment of the security structure in the form of North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO).
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India considered it essential to modernize its armed forces through establishment of defense
industry and transfer of technology. Its 362 million people – almost 29.5 percent of its
population – live in abject poverty. Ignoring them totally, it has spent huge amount of its
finances to accumulate weapons systems and develop defense-related industry.

 Pakistan Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Pakistan’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is to grow at 2.0% in the fiscal year 2022-23
(FY23), according to the World Bank’s latest report forecast, while global growth is also
expected to slow “perilously close” to recession in 2023, slashing its economic forecast on high
inflation, rising interest rates and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

 Pakistan gdp for 2021 was $348.26B, a 15.92% increase from 2020.
 Pakistan gdp for 2020 was $300.43B, a 6.38% decline from 2019.
 Pakistan gdp for 2019 was $320.91B, a 9.89% decline from 2018.
 Pakistan gdp for 2018 was $356.13B, a 4.99% increase from 2017.

 India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to government data released on Tuesday, India’s GDP growth declined to 4.4 per cent
in the December 2022 quarter as against 6.3 per cent growth in the September 202 quarter. The
rating firm also expects further rate hikes in the US totalling 50 basis points to 75 bps over the
next two to three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), taking the terminal
rate up to as high as 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent.

 India gdp for 2021 was $3,176.30B, a 19.07% increase from 2020.
 India gdp for 2020 was $2,667.69B, a 5.79% decline from 2019.
 India gdp for 2019 was $2,831.55B, a 4.76% increase from 2018.
 India gdp for 2018 was $2,702.93B, a 1.94% increase from 2017.

 ECONOMIC AND TRADE RELATIONS

According to the participants, this key area carried the most promising outlook. There
appeared to be a consensus that even if the 7 progress was not possible in the previous
two key areas, there was a degree of optimism with regard to improved economic and
trade relations. The participants came up with four factors affecting it
 Trade Policy
 Transport Policy
 Demand and Supply Dynamics
 Administration of Borders.

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 Opportunities and gains

 electricity
Making borders irrelevant can have far-reaching effects for economic prosperity across sectors in
Pakistan and India. Consider a key driver of growth: electricity. South Asia’s recent More and
Better Jobs flagship report estimated that industrial load shedding in Pakistan has resulted in the
loss of 400,000 jobs. Trade between energy surplus and deficit regions could counter such losses
— indeed, Pakistan is already in negotiations with India to import up to 500 MW of electricity.

 Textiles
The two countries are also likely to gain from exploiting vertical and horizontal linkages across
key industries, such as textiles, given Pakistan’s advantage in cotton and textiles and India’s in
apparel production. Additionally, they can gain through collaborations across educational
institutions, as happened recently when the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad signed a
memorandum of understanding with Pakistan’s Institute of Business Administration, Karachi to
train Pakistani leaders in core areas such as health care, infrastructure, manufacturing, small- and
medium-sized businesses, and entrepreneurship. The possibilities are tremendous, as two
distinguished panels discussed during the 2012 Bank-Fund Spring Meetings.

 Leveling the playing field

Changing policies is one thing, and that in itself is complicated, but changing norms and attitudes
is equally hard. Pakistan recently held a trade show in Delhi, showcasing a range of products
from furniture to food, and while it was welcomed by the Indian market, media reported the
difficulty faced by businesspeople in getting clearances for goods to be shipped across the
border. Pakistan’s commerce secretary noted, “Pakistani businessmen are under a very strong
impression they will not get a level playing field in India.”
Here are four reasons why the two countries should actively work towards a working
relationship:

 Food security
The most pressing issue for Pakistan right now is ensuring food security in the wake of
devastating floods, which decimated agricultural crops.

A thaw in ties could lead to a resumption in trade. From a purely economic standpoint, it can
provide the “quickest means of bridging a looming demand-supply shortfall in various kitchen
commodities”.

A Dawn editorial notes: “In purely logistical terms, it makes sense for Pakistan to first tap its
neighbours for its immediate needs before turning to global markets.

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“Both the cost of shipment and the time taken for the goods to reach local markets will be much
lower in case foodstuff is imported from India rather than anywhere else."

 Increased connectivity

Connected to the previous point: South Asia is the world’s most populous region yet, it is also
the least integrated, and has the largest number of poor people, according to an article by
Musharraf-era foreign minister Khurshid Kasuri and former Atal Bihari Vajpayee aide
Sudheendra Kulkarni.

He suggests that it can be a “region of prosperity for all by jointly implementing ambitious
connectivity projects”, given that mutual mistrust is addressed.

He notes that this also means “India should not be suspicious of CPEC but see it as an
opportunity which could lead to connectivity of the whole of South Asia, benefiting India as
well”.

 The risk of nuclear winter

Both are nuclear-equipped countries. Last year, a US Global Trends Report warned that India
and Pakistan may “stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants”. An escalation brings with
it the risk of a full-on nuclear exchange, which would be MAD (mutually assured destruction).

 More matches, religious and cultural tourism

We all want to see more Pakistan-India cricket matches. Better ties would make such lucrative
events more frequent. It would also make religious and cultural tourism easier, as well as visits
for people who have family and friends on the other side of the border.

In the end, both sides owe it to their people to forge a peaceful path based on coexistence and
friendship.

 THREATS
Southern Asia — India, Pakistan and China — is the only place on earth where three nuclear-
armed states have recently engaged in violent confrontations along their contested borders. As a
USIP senior study group report concluded last year, the problem of nuclear stability in Southern
Asia is getting harder to manage because of geopolitical changes, such as rising India-China
border tensions, as well as evolving military technologies, including growing nuclear arsenals
and more capable delivery systems. Unfortunately, in the time since that senior study group
completed its work, little has happened to revise its worrisome conclusion or to prevent the most

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likely triggering causes of a nuclearized crisis in Southern Asia. To the contrary, there are some
good reasons to fear that the situation in Southern Asia has even deteriorated over the past year.

 Nuclear Escalation
just because states invest in nuclear weapons and delivery systems does not mean that a crisis or
war is imminent. Leaders in China, India and Pakistan have always viewed their nuclear arsenals
primarily as tools of deterrence, less for practical warfighting than to convince adversaries of the
extraordinary costs that a war would risk. Nor do any of the region’s leaders take their nuclear
programs lightly; all feel tremendous incentives to keep their arsenals safe and secure and to
build systems of command, control and communications intended to prevent accidents,
unauthorized use or theft.
Fortunately, a February 2021 cease-fire agreement between India and Pakistan holds,
supplemented at times by a widely rumored “backchannel” dialogue between New Delhi and
Islamabad. Then again, it is a measure of the low level of our collective expectations for India-
Pakistan relations that the bare agreement not to actively shoot artillery shells across their border
and to participate in sporadic, secret talks is considered progress.

 The Terrorism Tinderbox

A return to serious India-Pakistan crisis could be just one terrorist attack away. Not even when
Pakistan suffered devastating floods last summer could leaders in Islamabad and New Delhi
create sufficient political space to open basic commodity trade. Hostile rhetoric is high, and there
is reason to anticipate it could get far worse over the coming year as national leaders on both
sides prepare for elections. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has learned he can whip up
domestic political support from tough talk and cross-border retaliation. In Pakistan, neither
civilian nor army leaders can afford to look weak in the face of Indian attacks, especially when
they face jingoistic (if transparently opportunistic) criticism from ousted prime minister Imran
Khan.
Pakistan Cannot afford only to worry about its border with India. Relations between Islamabad
and Kabul have deteriorated drastically ever since the Taliban swept back into power. Rather
than controlling Afghanistan through its favored militant proxies, Pakistan is suffering a surge in
violence on its own soil, most recently the devastating bombing of a police mosque in Peshawar
claimed by the anti-state Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Such violence, along with national
political turmoil, environmental calamity and economic crisis, will raise concerns among some in
the United States about threats to the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear enterprise. Sadly,
that will probably lead Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division — the guardians of its nuclear arsenal
— and other Pakistani military leaders to fear a phantom threat of American military intervention
rather than to address actual causes of the Pakistani state’s fragility.

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 India-China Tensions Rise

Events along the contested border between India and China hardly inspire confidence that New
Delhi and Beijing have found a path back to normal relations after their bloody border
skirmishes of 2020. To the contrary, the prospects of rapid military escalation have grown,
principally because both sides have positioned greater numbers of more lethal forces close to the
border. Before 2020, relatively small, unarmed Chinese and Indian patrols routinely risked
coming into contact as they pressed territorial claims on the un-demarcated border. This was
dangerous, but extremely unlikely to escalate rapidly into a serious military encounter. In early
December 2022 hundreds of Chinese troops attacked an Indian camp in what could not possibly
have been an unplanned operation. With tens of thousands of troops stationed not far away,
conventional military escalation is far more plausible than it was just a few years ago.

 Pakistan Thorn in China—India—U.S. Relations

At a time when Pakistan is under intense scrutiny about its role in fighting extremism and
terrorism, the world has been watching to see how Beijing decides to deal with Islamabad.
Despite Pakistan’s growing diplomatic isolation in recent months, China’s support has been
steadfast, at least publicly. Two weeks after the May 2011 U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden,
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani went to China on a four-day visit to celebrate the
60th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries. Of course, there
is much to celebrate in a bilateral relationship that Pakistan’s ambassador to Beijing has
described as ‘‘higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, stronger than steel, dearer than
eyesight, sweeter than honey, and so on.’’1 China was the only major power that openly voiced
support for Pakistan after bin Laden’s assassination, defending Islamabad and emphasizing that
the Pakistani government may not have known about bin Laden’s presence on its territory.
During Prime Minister Gilani’s visit, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao affirmed that ‘‘Pakistan has
made huge sacrifices and an important contribution to the international fight against terrorism,
that its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity must be respected, and that the
international community should understand and support Pakistan’s efforts to maintain domestic
stability and to realize economic and social development.

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