OSTA EXAM

Version A
December 2022

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Please answer all questions and provide detailed working. The total mark
is 100. The test is worth 100% of the final grade.

Time: 120 minutes

Question Marks achieved Out of

1 20
2 20
3 20
4 20
5 20
Total 100
Question 1 (total 20 marks) A multiple-choice test consists of a series of questions,
each with four possible answers.

(a) If there are 60 questions, estimate the probability that a student who guesses blindly
at each question will get at least 30 questions right.

(b) How many questions are needed in order to be 99% confident that a student who
guesses blindly at each question scores no more than 35% on the test?

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Question 2 (total 20 marks) Suppose that X ∼ B(12, p) and consider the point
estimate
X
p̂ =
14
(a) What is the bias of this point estimate?

(b) What is the variance of this point estimate?

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(c) Show that this point estimate has a mean square error of

3p − 2p2
.
49

X
(d) Show that this mean square error is smaller than the mean square error of when
12
p ≤ 0.52.

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Question 3 (total 20 marks) A random sample of 10 items gives x = 614.5 and
s = 42.9.

(a) Use a hypothesis test to determine whether there is sufficient evidence for the exper-
imenter to conclude that the population average is not 600.

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(b) Construct a 99% two-sided confidence interval for the population average.

(c) If a 99% two-sided confidence interval for the population average is required with
a total length no larger than 30, approximately how many additional items do you
think need to be sampled?

5
Question 4 (total 20 marks) The given table presents a data set compiled from a
series of clinical trials to investigate the effectiveness of a certain medication in healing an
infection.

(a) Is it appropriate to say that there is a 50% chance that the infection is completely
healed and a 10% chance that there is no change in the infection?

(b) Calculate a 95% two-sided confidence interval for the probability that the infection
is completely healed.

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Question 5 (total 20 marks) Four samples of water were taken at three different lo-
cations along a river and measurements were obtained of the amount of E.Coli colonies
within the water as given in the following table. Investigate whether there is any evidence
that the E.Coli pollution levels are different at the three locations.

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Full name .................................................................... Signature ........................................................

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