See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/364587486

THE GROWTH PATTERN AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS OF

NATIONAL HIGHWAYS IN THE NORTH EASTERN STATES OF INDIA

Article · June 2021

CITATIONS READS

4 420

3 authors:

Pradip Debnath Stabak Roy

Tripura University University of Gdansk
7 PUBLICATIONS 10 CITATIONS 70 PUBLICATIONS 184 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Saptarshi Mitra
Tripura University
80 PUBLICATIONS 229 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE

All content following this page was uploaded by Saptarshi Mitra on 21 October 2022.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

VOLUME: LIII
NO. 1

VOLUME: LIII
NUMBER: 1
JUNE 2021
JUNE 2021
 THE GROWTH PATTERN AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS OF NATIONAL HIGHWAYS IN THE NORTH EASTERN
STATES OF INDIA
Pradip Debnath∗, Stabak Roy∗ and Saptarshi Mitra∗∗

North-East India is one of the backward regions of India where the maximum population
inhabits far-flung villages. A transport network is considered a significant infrastructure
for removing backwardness and for connecting inter-state regions. The passenger
mobility and exchange of goods and services in the North-East largely depend on on-
road transportation, where National Highways (NHs) play a vibrant role. Even after
seven decades of independence, improvement of highways has not made much
progress in the North-East. However, in the recent decades, National Highways have
expanded almost with an annual average growth rate of 5.25 per cent. The total length
of National Highways (NHs) has increased from 6,657 km in 2000 to 13,639 km in
2020.This study intends to analyse the growth pattern, density and predict the prospect
of NHs development in North-East India. Road network data are obtained from various
Government departments to analyse the developmental scenario. Different statistical
methods, such as Pearson’s Correlation, Gini Index and Time Series Analysis, have
been applied. The study reveals that the State of Assam occupies the highest position
in terms of length in national highways, which shares about 28.66 per cent, followed
by Arunachal Pradesh (18.60 per cent) and Manipur (12.83 per cent). The study also
shows a high growth rate of NHs in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, whereas the growth rates
in Nagaland and Manipur are very poor. The other remaining states of this region are
fairly developed.

INTRODUCTION

The development of human civilisation is directly interlinked with the advancement of transportation
(Zhou et al., 2021; Das et al., 2019; Bhaduri, 1992). Transportation has played an indispensable part
in the growth and development of modern civilisation since ancient times, with the fulfilment of travel
requirements and transportation of raw materials and finished products (Chen et al.„ 2021; Wudad
et al., 2021; Khanani et al, 2020; Ayele, 2017; Sorate et al., 2015; Saxsena, 2010; Mathew, 2009). The
transport system works like a mirror and is one of the most pervasive functions for regional-economic
development and goods movement (Kec̆ek et al., 2021; Zheng et al., 2021; Kulkarni & Shafei,
2018; Rosello et al., 2016; Jean, et al., 2013). It plays a pivotal role in all-around developmental
processes and forms the backbone of the Indian economy (Lei et al., 2019; Bagler, 2008; Bose,
2003). Transportation accounts for about 6.3 per cent of the Gross National Product (GDP) in
India and is mostly dominated by the road sector. India has the 2nd (second) largest and diverse
road network globally, only after the United States. It caters to about 64.5 per cent of the freight
∗Research Scholar, Department of Geography and Disaster Management, Tripura University, Suryamaninagar,

Tripura-799022.
∗∗Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Disaster Management, Tripura University, Suryamaninagar,

Tripura-799022. E-mail: saptarshigeotu2000@gmail.com

84
The Growth Pattern and Future Developmental Trends of National Highways … 85

traffic and 87 per cent of India’s total passenger traffic. The Indian Road network has been classified
into National Highways, Expressways, State Highways, District roads and Rural roads (Ministry of
Road Transport & Highway, 2019-20). Jiao et al.(2020); Lavee (2019); Chakrabarti (2018); Khanna
(2015); Hunter (1965); North(1955) have argued that road and road transportation are essential
infrastructure for the economic growth of the country; highways also ensure economic development
and social progress. Highway directly impacts regional development in terms of the economic,
political, socio-cultural development of any nation or region (Al-Shaar et al., 2021; Hussain et al.,
2015; Khanna, 2015; Aschauer, 1990). It dominates the transport system by reducing travel time,
journey cost, ensuring efficient travel and making a region economically attractive (Mannering &
Washburn, 2020; Rogers, 2016). It can contribute to development by facilitating trade and migration
and reducing barriers to the spread of new technologies. It is considered the arteries and veins of
a state, a fundamental principle for its overall development (Brown, 2003). The highway network
plays an essential role in the spatial structure of a region because of its multi-dimensional functions
(Khanna & Justo, 1991). North-East is primarily dependent on roads for passengers’ movement
and freight traffic in which National Highways play a significant role. During the past two decades,
North-East India has witnessed drastic changes in its transportation scenario and in National
Highways. North-East India is crisscrossed by several National Highways which has played the
dominant part in the transport system. Out of 5,26,918 km. roads of North-East India, the National
Highways cover about 13,639km., constituting 2.59 per cent of the total road of North-East. Most of
the National Highways are constructed through the hilly tracks or areas having and acquisition issues
(Das, 2009)—the factors contributing to the slow progress of the highway construction. Therefore,
surface topography does not allow fast intra-state and inter-state movements of people and goods.
The average speed of the vehicles on the National Highways varies from 40-50 km/hour (Ministry of
Road Transport and Highways, 2016). This is mainly because of the poor quality of roads and lack
of maintenance. The highway is vital for the sustained and inclusive growth of the economy of the
study area. It provides freight and passenger movement across the regions. Highways provide inter-
state and strategic defence movements and serve significant population centres, prime destination
centres, major railway junctions, major industrial units and linkup with border roads. It promotes
efficiency in the economic growth by minimising total travel and freight cost, journey time and
efficient journey. Compared to other modes of transport, the movement of passengers and freight in
the North-East has significantly shifted towards road transport sector. The role of NHs among the
different categories of roads is dominant through minimised travel cost and journey time. The NH-6
(1,873 km) is the longest and busiest highway that passes through the states of Assam (Guwahati),
Meghalaya (Jorabat) and Mizoram (Selling).The main objective of the study is to analyse the growth
trends of National Highways in North-East over the last two decades from 2001-2020. During the
recent past, North-East India has witnessed remarkable changes in its roads transportation. This
paper aims to quantify and analyse the spatial-temporal relationship between NHs, population and
geographical area and to determine the spatial variation level of highways among the states. The
study also focuses on the future prospect of development of NHs in the North-East.

DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA

North-East India, broadly located in the Eastern Himalayas (Tyagi et al., 2019), comprises of seven
contiguous states i.e., Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya and
Tripura and one non-contiguous state, viz. Sikkim (Dikshit & Dikshit, 2014; Chakraborty et al.,
2012). North East India extends between the latitudes of 22◦0′ N and 29◦5′ N and longitudes of
88◦0′ E and 97◦30′ E (Fig. 1). It covers an area of 262,179 km 2 which is about 7.98 per cent of the
Total Geographical Area (TGA) of the country (Roy and Mitra, 2016).
86 Indian Journal of Regional Science Vol. LIII, No. 1, 2021

Fig. 1: Location Map of the Study Area

Source: Prepared by the authors, 2021 using QGIS v. 3.12.3 platform; Data extracted from diva
GIS

The area has an international boundary with Bangladesh on the southern and western side
and Myanmar on the southern and eastern side. The Tibetan Plateau of China is located on the
northern side and Nepal on the western border and Bhutan is located on the northern, eastern and
western sides. As five countries encircle the region, transportation is significantly characterised by
the bottleneck in the study area (Kukreja, 2016) and making the area isolated. It is responsible
for the economic backwardness of this region (Das, 2009; Jha, 2009). Only part of the western
side of the North-East is connected with the mainland by a narrow land corridor, usually known
as the Siliguri Neck or “Chicken’s Neck” (Goel & Soni, 2020; Dutta & Mandal, 2011) having an
approximate width of 33 km on the eastern side and 21 km on the western side (Jha, 2016). Due to
heavy rain and flooding, this connectivity is occasionally disrupted (Bhattacharyya, 2015). North
East India stretches about 811 km from east to west and about 838 km from northeast to southwest.
A hilly structural topography characterises the area along with the narrow river valley. One-third of
it is plain land, mainly confined to river valley (Bezbaruah, 2006), two-thirds is mountainous and less
than one-tenth is plateau (Sharma, 2015) on which road transportation faces different challenges.
The study area consists of early ancient Archaean and Shillong groups of rocks exposed over
a large part of the Garo, Khasi, Jaintia, Mishmi and Mikir hills (Nandi, 2011). These hill ranges
are tightly folded, trending in the North-South direction. The two highest mountain peaks in this
region are the Kanchanjanga in Sikkim and Mount Dapha in Arunachal Pradesh with altitude of
The Growth Pattern and Future Developmental Trends of National Highways … 87

8811 m and 4578 m, respectively. The height of these ranges gradually decreases towards the north
to south direction. These hill ranges developed during the Tertiary Age (Nandi, 2011). The NHs of
North-East India passes through the foothills and valleys, extending from one state to another and
enclosing the whole region like a chain. As per official records and satellite images, North East is
flanked by 1,70,541 km2 dense forest which is about 23.95 per cent of the total forest cover area of
the country (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, 2000). This is the wettest region
of the country and receives heavy rainfall mainly by the southwest monsoon. The average annual
rainfall is very high (2194 mm), leading to the growth of natural vegetation like evergreen forest,
deciduous forest and alpine grassland etc. The study area is drained by the Brahmaputra, the Barak
(Assam), the Gumti (Tripura) and the Siang (Arunachal Pradesh). In general, the transport network
pattern is structurally controlled and conforms to the topography. Different types of landforms–like
structural hills, denudation hills, inter-hill valleys–and the occurrence of earthquakes, landslides,
floods, etc. are the major hindrances to the development of transport infrastructure in North-East
areas (Roy and Mitra, 2016).

DATABASE AND METHODOLOGY

The study is based on secondary data. Road network data of North-East India are obtained from
the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MORTH) Department, Government of India. The
state-wise highway length was collected from the Highways Development Plan Reports, 2010–2020
from MORTH. State-wise infrastructure data have been collected from the annual reports of the
respective State Governments. Further, the total population for the study area was collected from
the Census of India, 2001 and 2011. Normality of the data has been plotted through quantile-
quantile (Q-Q) plot and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (K-S) test. Fig. 2 defines the Q-Q plot, which
has been used to understand the normal distribution of highway length in North-East India. The
degree of asymmetry has been found from the K-S test. Value of the (K-S) test is 0.78, which
reflects the Non-normality distribution of observed data set.
To find out the driving forces of this kind of development, an attempt has been made to
calculate the state-wise National Highway Density (NHD). To estimate the efficiency of NHD, State-
wise population density and the length of the National Highways of the corresponding state are
considered. The NHDI has been calculated using this density formula:
∑
n=8TLNH
NHDI = × 1000 km2 (1)
i=1 TGA

where, NHDI denotes National Highway Density Index in km, TGA denotes Total Geographical
Area for the ith state, ‘n’ stands for total numbers of states, and TLNH denotes total length of
National Highways for the ith state.
Another method for calculating National Highway Density (NHD) has been adopted as:

∑ TL= n=8 × 100000 population

NHNHDI TP (2)
i=1

TP stands for total population for ith state.

To measure the efficiency of the above two-methods, State-wise population density and the length
of the National Highways of the corresponding state are considered in order to calculate the National
88 Indian Journal of Regional Science Vol. LIII, No. 1, 2021

Highway Density Index (NHDI). The NHDI has been calculated using the following formula:
∑
n=8 TL NH
NHDI = (3)
PD
i=1

where, PD stands for population density for ith state.

Furthermore, NHs growth rate is calculated based on this formula:

∑
n=8
∆NH
NHGR = (4)
∆t
i=1

where, NHGR denotes growth rate for the ith state, ∆ NH stand for changes in NHs length, and
∆t is for change in time.

Fig. 2: Q-Q Plot of length National Highway of North-East

Source: NHAI, Govt. of India, 2021 and computed by the authors using SPSS v. 23

The Gini index is widely used in inequality measures. The Gini Index is connected to the Lorenz
curve, a graphical representation of inequality. To measure highways inequality we used the Gini
index which is equivalent to income Gini and can be numerically worked out by using the following
formula.
( n )
1 ∑ (∑ )
G= X i + 1Yi (5)
100 ∗ 100 X iY i + 1 −
i=1

Finally, different methods, like correlations and moving averages are applied to analyse the
temporal changes of the highways through cartographic depictions. The Geographical Information
System (GIS) software as QGIS v. 3.12.3 is used to generate zonation maps of National Highways.
The Growth Pattern and Future Developmental Trends of National Highways … 89

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Spatio-Temporal Growth of National Highways in North East India

The evolution of road transportation in North-East India started during the colonial period mainly
to access mineral and forest resources (Das, 2009).The rate of highway development in the North-
East gradually increased during the post-independence period. From 2000 to 2005, the growth rate
of the highways of North-East remained steady. In 2000, the total length of National Highway
registered by the NHAI was 6,657 km. and in 2005, the Fig. stood at 6,880 km., with an average
growth rate of 0.67 per cent per annum (Table 1). The length of the highways stood at 12,920 km
in 2015,compared to 6,880 km. in the year 2005 and 8,480 km. in the year 2010 with an average
growth rate of 4.65 per cent during the period 2005 to 2010 and 10.47 per cent over the period 2010
to 2015 per annum, respectively. The growth of highways in the North-East started to rise after the
implementation of the Special Accelerated Road Development Programme for the North-Eastern
region (SARDP-NE) in 2000. As the developmental works in the states started, the mileage of
highways reached 13,638.8 km. in the year 2020 with an average growth rate of 1.11 per cent per
annum during the period 2015 to 2020. It aims for the new construction, widening and up-gradation
of highways connectivity to state capitals, district headquarters and remote places. It envisages two
and four lanes of about 5,184 km. length of National Highways. This would provide connectivity
to 85 district headquarters in the North-Eastern States. The rate of decadal growth of highways in
North-East was only 27.38 and 60.83 per cent during 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020, respectively.
The decadal growth of highways has grown by leaps and bounds.
Table 1: State-wise Length(km) of National Highways in North-East India during
2000–2020
States *2000 *2005 Annual 2010 Annual 2015 Annual 2020 Annual
Growth Growth Growth Growth
Rate Rate Rate Rate
(2000 to (2005 to (2010 to (2015 to
2005 2010 2015 2020
in %) in %) in %) in %)
Arunachal
Pradesh 392 392 0.00 1992 81.63 2513.05 4.76 2537.40 0.19
Assam 2,836 2836 0.00 2836 0.00 3811.67 6.09 3908.50 0.51
Manipur 954 959 0.10 959 0.00 1745.74 12.73 1750.30 0.05
Meghalaya 717 810 2.59 810 0.00 1204.36 8.26 1155.60 − 0.81
Mizoram 927 927 0.00 927 0.00 1381 8.30 1422.50 0.60
Nagaland 369 494 6.78 494 0.00 1150.09 18.41 1547.70 6.91
Sikkim 62 62 0.00 62 0.00 309 37.88 463.00 9.97
Tripura 400 400 0.00 400 0.00 805 15.01 853.80 1.21
North East 6657 6880 0.67 8480 4.65 12920 8.79 13638.8 1.11
Source: * Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport & Highways, Government of India, 2009 and
Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India 2010–2020.
The demand for highways in the states has gradually increased as the population pressure
increased. Among eight North-Eastern states, the State of Assam scored the highest length with
about 3908.50 km.; on the contrary, the State of Sikkim has the lowest length of highways with 463
km., during 2019–2020. During 2000 the length was 2836 km. and 62 km., respectively against the
90 Indian Journal of Regional Science Vol. LIII, No. 1, 2021

states of Assam and Tripura. During the period 2000–2020, the decadal growth rate of highways is
minimum in Arunachal Pradesh (27.37per cent) followed by Assam (37.82 per cent). The state of
Sikkim (646.78 per cent) holds the highest decadal growth rate of National Highways, followed by
Nagaland (213.3 per cent). The National Highway decadal growth rate (60.83 per cent) is higher
than the national average (of 25.31 per cent) during 2010–2020. Presently, the total length of the
Meghalaya National Highway is about 1155 km. in 2020 in comparison with 1204.36 km. in 2015.
The length of the route shortened by 49 kilometres during the realignment and upgrading of the
National Highways in Meghalaya.

Distribution of State-wise National Highways in North East India

Since independence, Indian National Highways have not expanded considerably, especially in the
North-East. The actual development of the Indian Highways in North-East was primarily initiated
in 2014 by setting up a company named ‘National Highways and Infrastructure Development
Corporation Ltd.’ (NHIDCL) for designing, constructing, strengthening, maintaining, up-grading
and widening of National Highways. However, in the last ten years, about 60 per cent of the National
Highways have not expanded considerably, especially in the North-East. The actual development of
the Indian Highways has stretched both in terms of spread (total length and density) and carrying
capacity (No. of vehicles on NH and traffic volume) of North-East. The total length of surface roads
in the North-East region is about 92,023 km.; among these, 13,638.80 km. are National Highways
and 2,393 km. are State Highways. Length of National Highways has increased from 8,480 km. in
2010–2011 to 13,638.80 km in 2019–2020, an increase of more than 60per cent during this period
(Table 2). Among the North-East states, Assam occupied the highest position, with share about
28.66 per cent to the total. It is followed by Arunachal Pradesh (18.60 per cent) and Manipur (12.83
per cent), Nagaland (11.35 per cent) and Mizoram (10.43 per cent). The remaining states are less
significant in terms of NHs as they jointly share only about 15 per cent of the total NH’s length.
Sikkim is one of the least shared states, which accounts for only 3.39 per cent of the length of the
total highway in North-East India. The average NHs length is 1,704.85 km. of North-East states.
The actual length of NHs for five North Eastern states (Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim
and Tripura) is much lower than the average length of the NHs. Assam ranks first in terms of the
length of NHs, which shares more than 3,908 km., followed by Arunachal Pradesh (2537.40 km.)
and Manipur (1750.30 km.). The Standard Deviation (σ) for all the states in North-East is about
Table 2: State-wise Proportion of NHs in North-East
State NHs Length % of NHs Share % of NHs Share
(km) as Country as North-East
Arunachal Pradesh 2537.40 1.86 18.60
Assam 3908.50 2.86 28.66
Manipur 1750.30 1.28 12.83
Meghalaya 1155.60 0.85 8.47
Mizoram 1422.50 1.04 10.43
Nagaland 1547.70 1.13 11.35
Sikkim 463.00 0.34 3.39
Tripura 853.80 0.63 6.26
Mean (x) 1704.85 1.25 12.5
SD (σ) 1083.90 0.79 7.95
Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021.
The Growth Pattern and Future Developmental Trends of National Highways … 91

7.95. The states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Manipur, shared about 50 per cent of the
Standard Deviation (σ), followed by Nagaland and Mizoram with nearly 22 per cent of the share.
The value of the Standard deviation for Tripura and Sikkim is below the individual states of the
study area.

Density of National Highways (NHs)

The road network density indicates the length of the road per unit of the geographical area, from
which one discerns the quantity of accessibility and connectivity of the road network system (Gogai,
2013). According to Bose (2003), highways density is simply the ratio between the actual length
and area. In simple words, it is the ratio between the total highway length and geographical area
of a given place.

Fig. 3: Density of National Highways in North-Eastern States of India

Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021 using diva GIS and QGIS
v. 3.12.3

The density of the NHs in North-East India was calculated for the year 2020using the approaches
mentioned in methodology. The Highways density in North-East India has increased significantly
from 32.34 km./km. 2 in 2010–11 to 52.02 km./km. 2 in 2019–2020. At present, the density in North-
East is about 52.02 km./thousand km. 2 compared to the national average of 38.18 km./thousand
km.2 (in 2020). If we consider the length of the highways Nagaland is at the top of the list,
followed by Tripura (Fig. 3). Nagaland has the highest highway density with about 93.35 km.,
followed by Tripura with 81.42 km.; Mizoram and Sikkim with roughly 67.48 km. and 65.25 km.,
respectively, are just above the average density of the region. States having less than 50 km. shares
are considered the most minimal highway density state. Arunachal Pradesh has a lower highway
density, which is just more than 30.30 km./thousand sq. km., followed by Assam, which accounts
92 Indian Journal of Regional Science Vol. LIII, No. 1, 2021

for 49.83 km. due to the vastness of its geographical area (Fig. 3). Similarly, the highway density per
lakh population increased from 18.60 km. to 29.92 km. during the last decade, whereas road density
increased from 826.52 km. to 1258.98 km. The density of the NHs per lakh population appears
to be higher in Arunachal (183.49 km.), followed by Mizoram (130.43 km.). The low population
pressure in these two states is the prime responsible factor for higher level of National Highway
density. Nagaland’s Highway density of 78.16 km. per lakh population is similar to Sikkim’s 75.82
km. Assam (12.54 km.) has the lowest highway density of the eight states in North-East, followed by
Tripura (23.26km.). The heavy population pressure on these two states is one of the major reasons
for the low density (Fig. 4). In this study, state-wise National Highways length and population
density has been considered to calculate density of the NHs.

Fig. 4: Density of National Highways per Lakh Population

Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021 using diva GIS and QGIS
v. 3.12.3)

With respect to population, the Highways density in North-East was about 53.20 km. in 2011,
which increased to 85.56 km. in 2020. For an overall analysis of National Highways development in
North-East India, four prominent zones of National Highways density have been identified: very low-
density zone, low-density zone, medium-density zone, and high-density zone. Each zone comprises
two states. It is observed that the highway density was highly concentrated in the state of Arunachal
Pradesh (153.69 km.) and Mizoram (27.49 km.) during 2010-2011 and these states hold the same
positions during the year 2020 too. The high concentration of highways density in Arunachal
Pradesh and Mizoram is due to, as already stated, the low population density (Fig. 5).
On the other hand, in terms of population density, the Highways density in the state of Manipur
is about 14.36 km. followed by Nagaland (12.96 km.), Assam (9.84 km.) and Meghalaya (8.74 km.),
Sikkim (5.38 km.) and lastly Tripura (2.44 km.). The average density of NHs in the North-East is
about 29.36 km. (Fig. 5).
The Growth Pattern and Future Developmental Trends of National Highways … 93

Fig. 5: Density of National Highways per Lakh Population

Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021 using diva GIS and QGIS
v. 3.12.3)
Table 3: State-wise Density of NHs in relation to the Geographical Area, Population
Size and Population Density
State NH Length % of NH NH Density/ NH Density/ NH Density/
(km) as NER thousand km2 lakh Population Population Density
Arunachal
Pradesh 2537.40 18.6 30.30 183.52 153.69
Assam 3908.50 28.66 49.83 12.54 9.84
Manipur 1750.30 12.83 78.39 64.31 14.36
Meghalaya 1155.60 8.48 51.52 38.99 8.74
Mizoram 1422.50 10.43 67.48 130.38 27.49
Nagaland 1547.70 11.35 93.35 78.14 12.96
Sikkim 463.00 3.39 65.25 75.82 5.38
Tripura 853.80 6.26 81.42 23.26 2.44
Mean (x) 1705.00 13 64.69 76.00 29.36
SD (σ) 1083.92 7.95 20.27 57.12 50.80
Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021.
94 Indian Journal of Regional Science Vol. LIII, No. 1, 2021

Geographical Association with NHs

It has been assumed that population and geographical area play a crucial role in the highway
development. In this study, population and geographical area are considered as the leading factors
for highway growth. The hypothesis is that the area of a region and population growth are leading
factors behind National Highway development. The Pearson correlation technique has been applied
to test the hypothesis by taking geographical area and population as independent variables and

Fig. 6: Relation between population size and National Highways by Pearson's cor-
relation method (2011 and 2001)

Fig. 7: Relation between the geographical area with National Highways by

Pearson's correlation method (2011and 2001)
Source: Prepared by the authors using SPSS v. 23 based on MORTH report, 2020
The Growth Pattern and Future Developmental Trends of National Highways … 95

national highway as dependent variable. The scattered diagram and the regression line establish the
relationship between population (2011 and 2001) and geographical area with the National Highways
development (2011 and 2001). In this diagram (Fig. 6), X axis represents the population and
geographical area of North-Eastern states and Y -axis denotes length of the National Highways.
National Highways, having positive correlations with both the population and geographical areas
of North-East India. These significant relationship (denotes with ‘r’-values) are 0.81 and 0.94
in 2001 and 0.89 and 0.57 2011 respectively. From the regression analysis, it is observed that
the independent variables entirely determine the value of the dependent variable and it is fully
significant. The diagram depicts that along with an increase in the population, National Highways
length also significantly increased. It indicates that an increase in the population demands the
increase of the National Highways length.

Spatial Disparities in National Highways Network

The distribution of National Highways in North-East India is uneven and concentrated. Over the
past few years, various areal units have observed disparities in National Highways density. Based
on the available data, the Gini coefficient is calculated at the state level to show spatial disparities
on highway distribution. It is clear that the matter is serious in NHs development. It can be seen
(Fig. 8) that Gini-coefficient index is high and it gives an idea of regional variations with respect to
spread of National Highways in the North-East.

Fig. 8: Disparity of NHs Distribution

Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021 using SPSS

Arunachal Pradesh accounts nearly 18.60 per cent of the total NHs length. Next is Assam which
accounts for about 10per cent of the total NHs. Nagaland ranks third with 8per cent of the total
NHs length in the region. Manipur and Tripura are almost at the same level with shares of 3 and
2.65 per cent, respectively. The remaining states share about 1 per cent of the total NHs in this
study area. Fig. 8 reveals that National Highways distribution is relatively distinctive to total road
length and distribution of length is skewed. The eight North-Eastern states are obviously lagging
in terms of National Highway length to total road length. It may be noted that the value of Gini-
coefficient index is 0.42 and the curve for National Highway does not show such a high degree of
distinctiveness. In terms of policy planning, there is a need to minimise the disparity of NHs.
96 Indian Journal of Regional Science Vol. LIII, No. 1, 2021

Temporal Changes of National Highways

The time series analysis of NHs in North-East India has been donefrom2010to 2020. Two- year and
five-year moving average method has been applied to analyse the growth of NHs in the North-East
states (Table 4) and (Fig. 9). The smooth line in the Fig. shows the NHs length distribution of North-
East India. Curved lines in Fig. 9 have depicted two and five-year moving averages, which indicate an
estimate of the growth trend-cycle of NHs in the North-East. The trend-cycle (curve line) is smoother
with the substantial growth and captures the time series’ main movement without all of the minor
variations. The order of the moving average controls the smoothness of the trend-cycle estimate. The
trend-cycle (existing NH) is far from the main trend line which means it does not follow the
original growth trend due to fluctuations of the growth of NHs in these states. Thus, the five year-
moving average of the NHs growth does not represent the trend-cycle estimation curves. A linear
trend with an r-value characterises the development of highways in North-East India is 0.94.

Fig. 9: Growth trends of NHs of North-East

Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021

Table 4: Time Series Analysis of Average Annual Growth of NHs by 2-MA and 5-MA
for a Decade
Year NHs Length 2-MA 5-MA Year NHs Length 2-MA 5-MA
(km) (km)
2010–2011 8,480.00 2015–2016 12,919.91 12745.865 12700.408
2011–2012 8,480.00 8480.00 2016–2017 13,130.81 13025.36 13175.908
2012–2013 9,525.00 9002.50 10063.624 2017–2018 13,618.20 13374.505 13389.304
2013–2014 11,261.30 10393.15 8437.242 2018–2019 13,638.80 13628.50
2014–2015 12,571.82 11916.56 11881.768 2019–2020 13,638.80 13638.80
Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021.
The Growth Pattern and Future Developmental Trends of National Highways … 97

PROSPECT OF NATIONAL HIGHWAYS DEVELOPMENT

The total length of the highways of North-Eastern states is 13638.8 km. in 2020. The prospect of
development of Highways in the North East can be projected against the background of the existing
situation, the changes which have taken place in the past and the developments which are taking
place in the North-Eastern states. The projected values for the total highway length in different
states are shown in Fig. 10 which presents the estimated highways of North-East India for the years
from 2021 to 2025. From the observation of the projected growth curve of the National Highways
development, it is expected that the growth rate will remain steady (Fig. 10) and the annual growth
rate of highways will remain the same. The projected length of the National Highways in 2025 is
15,686 km. On the other hand, highways expansion will also increase significantly. There will be
gradual changes in highway expansion from 5.27 per cent in 2020 to 13.10 per cent in 2025, while
the mid-year highway length is estimated at 14,341 km. (i.e. in 2023). Therefore, the Government
may adopt immediate action plans to prevent stress upon the area and its infrastructures.

Fig. 10: Projected Exponential Growth of NHs up to 2025

Source: NHAI, Govt. of India and computed by the authors, 2021

MAJOR FINDINGS

The highest growth rate in the expansion of National Highways in the North-East India has been
identified over the period of 2010 to 2015 following the special initiatives taken by the Government
of India for improving effective communication among the North-Eastern States. The state of
Sikkim (646.78%) recorded the maximum decadal growth rate followed by Nagaland (213.3%) while
Arunachal Pradesh accounted the lowest decadal growth rate.
98 Indian Journal of Regional Science Vol. LIII, No. 1, 2021

Assam and Tripura have a poor National Highways density because of their flat topography and
higher population concentration. Depending on the abundance of natural resources, like petroleum,
coal, natural gas, timber, limestone, tea production etc., these two states have become highly
populated and more urbanised in nature. On the other hand, higher NHs density is found in the
state of Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram. This is because of the existence of the mountainous
topography (Kangto (7060 m.), Nyegyi-kansang (7047 m.), Gorichen (6542 m.) Boshala (5746 m.)
and the least population density.
As per the data Sikkim and Nagaland have the highest annual growth rate of National Highways,
while Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh have the lowest. The growth of highways network in the
state of North-East India is increasing continuously though, regional inequality has existed in terms
of National Highways distribution which can be minimised by constructing new highways.

CONCLUSION
The National Highways play a crucial role in regional development. In this perspective, the
highway infrastructure demands continuous up-gradation and maintenance. The North-Eastern
states is characterised by minimum development in respective of National Highways. But there
is a positive exponential characteristic of highways growth. Although, the density and growth of
highways is an abysmal and higher degree of spatial disparity among the North-Eastern states,
which has led to remoteness and backwardness. This study is examined the relationships between
highway development with population and geographical area using statistical tests. The results show
that highway expansion improvement contributes to significant changes in the amount of highway
density and connectivity. National Highways of North-East feeds a decisive role in linking trade
and commerce and meeting the people’s basic needs of the region. Highways communication is
one way to secure defence and ensure economic development. In recent years, the importance of
highway transportation has gradually changed between the states. Its location is vital from the
transportation and strategic point of view.

REFERENCE

Al-Shaar, W., N. Nehme, O. Bonin and J. A. Gérard (2021): Impacts of a New Highway on Urban
Development and Land Accessibility in Developing Countries: Case of Beirut Southern Entrance
in Lebanon. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 46(6), 5783–5800.
Aschauer, D. A. (1990): Highway capacity and Economic Growth. Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago, 14–24.
Ayele, H. N. (2017): Road Sector Development and Socio-economic Growth in Wonbera Woreda,
Benshangul Gumuz, Ethiopia. Global Journal of Management and Business Research.
Bagler, G. (2008): Analysis of the airport network of India as a complex weighted network. Physica
A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 387(12), 2972–2980.
Bezbaruah, M. P. (2006): Agricultural Development in the North-East: Status, Assessment and
Prospects. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61 (3), 561–570.
Bhaduri, S. (1992): Transport and regional development: a case study of Road Transport of West
Bengal. New Delhi: Concept Publishing Company.
Bhattacharyya, N. N. (2015): North East India: A Systematic Geography. New Delhi, India:
Rajesh Publications.
Bose, S. (2003): Road Density, Resource Intensity and Efficiency in National Highways of India:
1958–1997. Economic and Political Weekly (EPW), 38 (6), 561–571.
The Growth Pattern and Future Developmental Trends of National Highways … 99

Brown, G. (2003): A method for assessing highway qualities to integrate values in highway planning.
Journal of Transport Geography, 11 (4), 271–283.
Chakrabarti, S. (2018): Can highway development promote employment growth in India?.
Transport Policy, 69, 1–9.
Chakrabortya, R., B. Deb and S. Sen (2012): North-East India an Ethnic Storehouse of Unexplored
Medicinal Plants. Scholars Research Library, 2(1), 143–152.
Chen, A., Y. Li, K. Ye, T. Nie and R. Liu (2021): Does Transport Infrastructure Inequality Matter
for Economic Growth? Evidence from China. Land, 10(8), 874.
Das, D., A. K. Ojha, H. Kramsapi, P. P. Baruah and M. K. Dutta (2019): Road network analysis
of Guwahati city using GIS. SN Applied Sciences, 1(8), 1–11.
Das, P. (2009): Evolution of the road network in Northeast India: Drivers and brakes. Strategic
Analysis, 33(1), 101–116.
Dikshit, K. R. and J. K. Dikshit (2014): North-East India: Land, People and Economy. New York
London: Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg.
Dutta, P. C. and R. Mandal (2011): Globalisation, Growth and Inequality in North East India
North East India. Kalpaz Publications.
Goel, R. and R. Soni (2020): Microbiological Advancements for Higher Altitude Agro-Ecosystems
& Sustainability. (R. Goel, R. Soni, and D. C. Suyal, Eds.) Singapore: Springer.
Gogoi, B. (2013): Structural Analysis of Existing Road Networks of Assam: A Transport
Geographical Appraisal. International Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research, 1817–1823.
Hunter, H. (1965): Transport in Soviet and Chinese Development. Economic Development and
Cultural Change, 14 (1), 71–84.
Hussain, G., Y. Singh and G. M. Bhat (2015): Geotechnical Investigation of Slopes along the
National Highway (NH-1D) from Kargil to Leh, Jammu and Kashmir (India). Geomaterials, 56–
67.
Jean, P. R., C. Claude and S. Brian (2013): The Geography of Transport Systems. New York and
London:Routledge.
Jha, S. (2009): Bio-Cultural Diversity and Sustainable Development in North East India: Status,
Vision & Challenges. (A. Jha, S. Munjal and S. Jha, Eds.) New Delhi: Readworthy Publications.
Jha, B. (2016): Boder Management and Bodere Fencing in Tripura. (S. Poddar, Ed.) 10.
Jiao, J., J. Wang, F. Zhang, F. Jin and W. Liu (2020): Roles of accessibility, connectivity and
spatial interdependence in realising the economic impact of high-speed rail: Evidence from China.
Transport Policy, 91, 1–15.
Kec̆ek, D., P. Brlek and K. Buntak (2021): Economic effects of transport sectors on Croatian
economy: an input–output approach. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 1–16.
Khanani, R. S., E. J. Adugbila, J. A. Martinez and K. Pfeffer (2021): The impact of road
infrastructure development projects on local communities in peri-urban areas: the case of Kisumu,
Kenya and Accra, Ghana. International Journal of Community Well-Being, 4(1), 33–53.
Khanna, G. (2015): The impact of highways on regional development in India. London School of
Economics and Political Science (LSE).
Khanna, S. K. and C. E. G. Justo (1991): Highway Engineering. Nem Chand & Bros.
Kukreja, D. (2016): Transportation Infrastructure in the North East. Indian Defence Review, 31
(2), 1–5.
100 Indian Journal of Regional Science Vol. LIII, No. 1, 2021

Kulkarni, A. R. and B. Shafei (2018): Impact of extreme events on transportation infrastructure

in Iowa: a Bayesian network approach. Transportation research record, 2672(48), 45–57.
Lavee, D. (2019): The impact of investment in transport infrastructure on employment: the case
of Israel. European Transport, 74(3), 1–21.
Lei, L., S. Desai and R. Vanneman (2019): The impact of transportation infrastructure on women’s
employment in India. Feminist economics, 25(4), 94–125.
Mannering, F. L. and S. S. Washburn (2020): Principles of highway engineering and traffic analysis.
John Wiley & Sons.
Ministry of Highway Road Transport & Highways (2019–20). Annual Report. Ministry of Highway
Road Transport & Highways, Ministry of Highway Road Transport & Highways. New Delhi:
Ministry of Highway Road Transport & Highways.
Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (2016): Preparatory Study for North East Road Network
Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 2). New Delhi: Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways.
Mathew, T. V. (2009): Role of transportation in society.Lecture notes in Transportation Systems
Engineering. https://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1100_LnTse/102_lnTse/plain/plain.html
Nandi, D. R. (2011): Geodynamics of Northeastern India and Adjoing Region. Guwahati: Scientific
Book Centre.
North, D. C. (1955): Location Theory and Regional Economic Growth. Journal of Political
Economy, 63 (3), 243–258.
Rogers, M. (2016): Highway engineering. Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Roselló, X., A. Langeland and F. Viti (2016): Modelling Public Transport Passenger Flows in
the Era of Intelligent Transport Systems. (G. Gentile and K. NoekeL, Eds.) Springer Tracts on
Transportation and Traffic.
Roy, S., & Mitra, S. (2016). Infrastructural Status of Railway Transport System in North East
India: A geographical Analysis. Asian Journal of Spatial Science, 4(1), 89-100.
Saxsena, H. M. (2010): Transport Geography. Jaipur, Rajasthan, India: Rawat Publications.
Sharma, S. K. (2015): Discovery of North-east India:Geography, History, Culture, Religion, Politics,
Sociology, Science, Education and Economy. New Delhi: Mittal Publications.
Sorate, R. R., R. P. Kulkarni, S. U. Bobade, M. S. Patil, A. M. Talathi, I. Y. Sayyad, et al. (2015):
Identification of Accident Black Spots on National Highway 4 (New Katraj Tunnel to Chandani
Chowk). IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering (IOSR-JMCE), 12 (3), 61–67.
Tyagi, B., J. Singh and G. Beig (2019): Seasonal progression of surface Ozone and NO x
concentrations over three tropical stations in North-East India. Elsevier , 1–33.
Wudad, A., S. Naser and L. Lameso (2021): The impact of improved road networks on marketing
of vegetables and households’ income in Dedo district, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia. Heliyon,
e08173.
Zheng, F., J. Huang, Z. Feng and C. Xiao (2021): Impact of the Kunming–Bangkok Highway on
Land Use Changes along the Route between Laos and Thailand. Land, 10(9), 991.
Zhou, Z., J. Duan, W. Li and S. Geng (2021): Can Rural Road Construction Promote the
Sustainable Development of Regional Agriculture in China?. Sustainability, 13(19), 10882.

View publication stats