Water Rationing Model for Water Networks

under Short-term Water Supply Shortage

Hyung Seok Jeong1 and Dulcy M. Abraham2

1
Assistant Professor School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Oklahoma State
University, Stillwater, OK 74078; PH (405) 744-7073; Email:david.jeong@okstate.edu
2
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Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

47907; PH (765) 494-2239; Email:dulcy@ecn.purdue.edu

Abstract

Protecting water infrastructure systems from intentional attacks and developing

strategies to make the water networks robust, resilient, and more immune to
intentional attacks have been one of the top priorities in water industry since the
September 11, 2001 terrorist events. The water distribution system typically consists
of multiple subsystems in grid or network patterns. An intentional attack on a well-
selected set of physical components can result in catastrophic disruption of water
service. This paper presents a mitigation model which can reduce or minimize
adverse consequences when a water network suffers from significant water shortage
due to functional failures of critical facilities due to intentional physical attacks. The
model developed in this study can be also applicable to water supply shortage
situations due to non-intentional incidents such as major pump failures or main breaks.

The proposed model optimizes a water supply plan for water customers utilizing the
information regarding the priority of water customers in emergency situation, their
functional sensitivity to water supply, and dynamic nature of water demand patterns.
The solutions generated from the model are water rationing plans which can
guarantee at least a short-term water supply to every water customer in 24-hour
period. A Genetic Algorithm based program linked with a hydraulic solver (EPANET
2.0) is developed to find optimal rationing plans. A test of the developed program
using an example water network in EPANET 2.0 manual indicates that the proposed
model can successfully generate water rationing plans to reduce the consequences
while meeting hydraulic constraints in water networks. The findings of this paper will
provide a practical approach that can be used by managers of water networks in
preparing emergency operations of their water networks.

Introduction

Water demand by customers fluctuates during the day (i.e., 24-hour period). This
dynamic water demand pattern necessitates the use of an extended period simulation
to monitor the hydraulic behavior of a water network. This paper provides an optimal
water rationing strategy which attempts to minimize the consequences when a water
network suffers from significant water shortage due to functional failures of critical

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 facilities while considering the dynamic nature of water demand when a water
network is partially functioning due to intentional physical attacks. The solutions
generated from the model can guarantee at least a short-term water supply to every
water customer in 24-hour period. This feature differentiates the model from the
previous model (Jeong et al. 2006) wherein water customer nodes have only binary
choices (i.e., once a node is determined to be discontinued from the water supply, that
node will remain so until the system is fully restored).
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Water Rationing Plan for Different Groups of Customers

Water usage in municipal water distribution systems is inherently unsteady due to

continually varying demands. The temporal variations in water usage for municipal
water systems typically follow a 24-hour cycle called a diurnal demand pattern
(Walski et al. 2001). Time-variant demand patterns are highly related to the type of
customers. For instances, hotels and residential areas may typically have their peak
usage during early mornings and early evening hours. Businesses and office buildings
may have flat water demand during the day while restaurants are expected to have
their peak demand in the evening.

In this study, it is assumed that the water demand pattern for each customer is already
known. During the restoration period after a physical attack on water networks, the
water supply plan must be as close as possible to the normal water demand pattern of
the customers in order to minimize the consequences. However, after the system is
physically sabotaged, the lack of full water supply may not allow the system to meet
the water demands of customers completely during the 24-hour period. Many
customers may experience water outages during peak consumption conditions (i.e.,
early in the morning in a residential area-dominated network) than during low
consumption conditions (i.e., very late at night in the same network).

The water demand pattern is expected to significantly change when water is

sporadically supplied during a day. In this study, 24-hour water supply plans for
different types of water customers are generated. Three types of water customers are
considered: residential, industrial, and critical. As an example, the following section
briefly discusses the water supply plans for residential customers during the
restoration period. Note that different municipalities may prepare different water
supply or rationing plans by considering the geographic, economic and social
structure of their community.

Water Rationing Plan for Residential Customers

Typically, the water consumption pattern of residential customers has two peaks in a
24-hour period (early in the morning and early in the evening). In this study, the
dynamic water demand patterns of customers are characterized using stepwise
patterns as shown in Figure 1. In a stepwise demand pattern, water consumption rates
are assumed to remain constant over the duration of the pattern time step. Each
segment represents four hours. Shorter durations of the segment would result in a

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 more accurate representation of the water consumption pattern and more accurate
solutions, however, at the expense of higher computational efforts.
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Figure 1 Stepwise Water Consumption Pattern of Residential Customers

The water consumption rate for each time segment is represented by using the
concept of the multiplier (M). M is 1 if the water consumption rate during the time
segment is the average consumption rate during the 24-hour period. For instance,
during the first segment of time (from 12 A.M. to 4 A.M.), water is consumed at
about 70% of the average consumption rate. Then, the water consumption rate is
represented as M = 0.7. By identifying the average consumption rates and multipliers
of each time segment for customers, normal water consumption patterns can be
generated. No consequences are expected if the customers are allowed to consume
water according to the normal consumption pattern.

Many different sets of water rating plans can be generated when the 24-hour period is
divided into six different time steps. Since water rationing plans must be associated
with the expected water consumption rate for each time segment, only a handful of
plans are considered from the managerial and operational perspectives. In this study,
ten different water rationing plans are utilized: 1) a full water supply plan which does
not incur any consequences, 2) three sets of water supply plans which supply water
for only eight hours during a 24-hour period, and 3) six sets of water supply plan
which supply water for only four hours during a 24-hour period.

In this study, water usage of a customer is estimated to be 75% of the total amount of
water consumed under normal consumption conditions if a water rationing plan is to
supply water for eight hours a day. If a water rationing plan is to supply water for four
hours a day, the water usage is estimated to be 50% of the total amount of water
under normal consumption conditions. For residential customers, the impact function
is assumed to follow the function f as shown in Figure 2 as they are expected to have
flexibility to adjust themselves to water shortages. The associated consequence level
is 0.07 for the eight-hour water supply plans and 0.25 on average for the four-hour
water supply plans (see Figure 2). Table 1 provides three samples of the ten water
rationing plans for residential customers. Note that the relationship between the
consequence level and water supply plans in Figure 2 and multipliers used in Table 1
can significantly change, depending on the characteristics of the community analyzed.

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 In this paper, reasonably estimated values are used for defining the relationship
between the consequence level and water supply plans and the multipliers.

1.00

Impact on the node

0.75
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0.50
4-hour water
supply plans

0.25 8-hour water

supply plans
0.07

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

% of total amount of water satisf ied

Figure 2. Impact Function of Reduced Water Supply

Table 1. Sample Water Rationing Plans for Residential Customers

Name Plan Graphical Plan Multiplier Impact

full
PR1 Varies 0.0
Supply

8-hour
PR3 2.25 0.084
supply

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 Table 1. Sample Water Rationing Plans for Residential Customers (cont’d)
Name Plan Graphical Plan Multiplier Impact

4-hour
PR9 3.0 0.25
supply
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Water Rationing Model

The water rationing model determines the appropriate water supply or rationing plans
for the different water customers. The model should produce hydraulically-feasible
solutions with minimal consequences. Since the water customers are divided into
three different groups, the consequences must be measured for each customer group.
For residential customers, the number of people that constitute the “water customer”
multiplied by the degree of impact of a selected water rationing plan can be used as a
measure of the consequences (Equation 1).

Pu yu (1)
u U
where, U = set of water customers,
Pu = number of people that constitute the water customer u, u U ,
yu= the degree of impact of the selected water supply plan for u, u U .

For industrial customers, the concept of resiliency used in the consequence

minimization model in Jeong et al. (2006) is applicable to the “No water supply”
plan. The consequences of partial supply plans (rationing plans) must be associated
with the degree of impact predefined for the specific industrial customers. The
consequences of industrial customers can be measured using Equation 2.

S v (1 Rv ) y v (2)
v V
where, V = set of industrial customers,
Sv = daily average sales of industrial customer of v, v V
Rv = resiliency of industrial customer of v, v V
yv= the degree of impact of the selected water supply plan for v, v V .

For critical customers, the degrees of impact due to different water rationing plans are
used to measure the consequences (equation 3).

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 yw (3)
w W
where, W = set of critical water customers,
yw= the degree of impact of the selected water supply plan for w, w W .

The objective of the optimization model is to minimize these three consequences

(equation 1, 2, and 3) by selecting an adequate water rationing plan for each customer
for a given attack scenario. The constraints for this model are the hydraulic
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constraints as shown in equations (4) to (6).

qmn q mn Qn = 0, n N , Conservation of mass (4)

m|( m ,n ) A m|( m ,n ) A

hm hn = f (qmn ), (m, n) A , Conservation of energy (5)

hn H min , n N , Minimum pressure requirement (6)
Where, N = set of nodes of the network,
A = set of arcs (pipes) of the network,
Qn = Quantity of water flowing out of node n, n N ,
Hmin= minimum pressure head value (10 psi),
= head loss-flow relation for (u,v), (u , v) A

For this model, however, the hydraulic constraints must be satisfied for 24 hours.
Since the 24-hour period is divided into six discrete time segments with the same
length of time respectively in this study, the model computes the state of the system
as six series of steady-state simulations in which the hydraulic demands and boundary
conditions change with respect to time.

Optimization Engine

The model described in this paper is a discrete combinational optimization problem

with three objectives. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms (NSGA-II)
(Deb et al. 2000) is used to solve the problem in this case. In order to test the
hydraulic feasibility of the solutions for a 24-hour period, the extended period
simulation function of EPANET 2.0 (Rossman 2000) is employed. The entire
optimization process is illustrated in Figure 3.

The first step is to anatomize the water customer nodes, whereby the water customers
served by each node are identified and classified with their normal water consumption
patterns and average consumption rates. For each customer, the potential water
rationing plans associated with the degree of the plans are prepared and stored in a
database. Once this database is established, the NSGA-II based on the optimization
process starts.

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 Node anatomy

Database of water
rationing plans for
each customer
Optimization Process

Create a population of
individuals

Generation of dynamic
water consumption
pattern of nodes
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Extended hydraulic
simulation
(EPANET 2.0)

Fitness test

If the termination
criteria are met No
Production of next
generation

Selection of parents
for mating
+
Yes

Crossover
+
Mutation

STOP
Generate results

Figure 3. Optimization Process

A population of individuals is generated. Each gene in each individual represents a

water customer and it contains information about randomly selected water rationing
plans for the customer. A 24-hour water consumption pattern for each node is
developed and this data is sent to EPANET 2.0 to run an extended hydraulic
simulation. The pressure distribution data for six time segments are obtained from the
simulation and used to test the fitness of each individual. If an individual is a
hydraulically feasible solution, the three different fitness values for the individual are
calculated using equations (1), (2), and (3). If the individual is a hydraulically
infeasible solution, then constraint violation (CV) values are calculated using
equation (7)

~
CVi = (h* • 1 ) (7)
t T
it
where, T = the set of time segments during a 24-hour period
h = {h ijt : j = 1....N} is the pressure distribution vector of solution i in t, t T ,
~
it
and N = the number of nodes,
~*
h = {max{0, (h min h ijt )} : j = 1...N } is the vector of solution i in t, t T , the
it
vector records the pressure difference of node j which has less pressure than
the minimum allowable pressure (hmin) from the hmin.

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 All solutions are ranked using the non-dominated sorting procedure with the
crowding distance method (Deb 2000). If the termination criteria (typically, the
number of generations) are met, the program stops and generate the solutions.
Otherwise, it moves on to the production stage for the next generations. The process
of selecting parents and the crossover process are the same as in Jeong et al. (2006).
However, in the mutation process, since each gene of an individual has multiple
choices based on the prepared water rationing plans, it randomly picks one of the
water rationing plans and replaces the original plan with the new one. Once a new
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generation of population is created, they are sent to the step in which a dynamic
consumption pattern for each node is generated. This process iterates until the
termination criteria are met.

Applications of the Proposed Model to Water Networks

The proposed model is applied to Epaville-II, which is obtained from the EPANET
2.0 Manual. The performance of the proposed model on the networks is evaluated and
the implication of the model to water utility managers is discussed.

The water network of Epaville-II has two water sources: a lake and a river (Figure 4).
Water from these two sources is pumped to three water tanks in the network. During
normal operations, the pumping station from the lake operates only part of the day
from 1 A.M. to 3 P.M. and the pumping station from the river operates based on the
water level in tank 1. If the water level is 17.1 feet below the minimum level of the
tank, the river pumping station operates and if the water level is 19.1 feet above the
minimum level of the tank, the river pumping station stops pumping water. The water
network of Epaville-II consists of 92 water customer nodes in the skeletonized
format. The graphical representation for the different types of customers is illustrated
in Figure 4. Note that residential customers are divided into eight different sectors
based on their geographic proximity. In preparing a water rationing plan for Epaville-
II after physical attacks, it is assumed that water customers in a residential sector
share the same water supply plan.

Two physical attack scenarios are evaluated. Scenario C involves the physical
destruction of the river pumping station and Scenario D involves the physical
destruction of the lake pumping station. The following GA parameters were used:
population size = 500, number of generations = 1,000, crossover rate = 0.85, and
mutation rate=0.03. The computational time for each scenario with a single run was
150 minutes using a Pentium IV processor (2.9 Mhz) and 512 cache memory. Figure
5 shows the Pareto solutions for the two attack scenarios.

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Figure 4. Characteristics of Water Customers in Epaville-II

Thirty five Pareto solutions are found for Scenario C and one Pareto solution is
generated for Scenario D. Among the Pareto solutions, the most appropriate strategy
is dependent on the decision-maker’s preference structure, which can be formed by
the characteristics of the community that the water network serves. In this study, to
investigate the impacts on different customers due to the two different attack
scenarios, three different preference structures based on lexicographic ordering
approach (LOA) are applied. The order for the first LOA (LOA-I) is (1) impact on
critical customers -> (2) impact on residential customers -> (3) impact on industrial
customers. The order of the second LOA (LOA-II) is (1) impact on residential
customers -> (2) impact on critical customers -> (3) impact on industrial customers.
The order of the third LOA (LOA-III) is (1) impact on industrial customers -> (2)
impact on critical customers -> (3) impact on residential customers.

(a) Scenario C b) Scenario D

Figure 5. Pareto Solutions for Two Attack Scenarios (Cityville)

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 Based on the preference structures, three different strategies are selected and
compared for two attack scenarios as presented in Table 2. The results clearly indicate
that the lake pumping station is a redundant facility for the Epaville-II water network
because the destruction of the lake pumping station has no impact on the community
in terms of the three consequence indices. However, the river pumping station is the
most critical water facility in the system as the operation without this facility results
in adverse consequences. A water rationing plan for each customer can be identified
by retrieving the optimization results data once the preference structure is selected.
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Table 2. Best Strategies for Given Preference Structure (Epaville-II)

Attack Preference
Objective I Objective II Objective III
Scenarios Structure
LOA I 4024 597.5 2
Scenario C LOA II 660 558.8 6
LOA III 4118 220.0 6
LOA I 0 0 0
Scenario D LOA II 0 0 0
LOA III 0 0 0

Conclusion

This paper presented a model which identifies optimal water rationing plans for water
customers in order to minimize the consequences when the water network is partially
destroyed by intentional physical attacks. The model requires an appropriate
estimation of the water demand patterns of customers and the water consumption
rates of different rationing plans. This model overcomes the major shortcomings of
the previous models (Jeong et al. 2006) by incorporating the dynamic nature of water
demands during a 24-hour period. In addition, this model can avoid complete shut-off
of the water supply to some water customers by using periodic water rationing plans.

The proposed model was applied and evaluated using Epaville-II. Among many
Pareto solutions, the preference structure is necessary to select the most appropriate
strategy for the water network. By retrieving the solution data of the selected strategy,
water rationing plans for customers can be determined and implemented by water
utility managers. The result can be also used to identify the criticality and redundancy
of facilities in the water network.

Acknowledgements

The financial support from the National Science Foundation (Grant CMS-0201364) is
hereby acknowledged. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations
expressed in this study are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the National Science Foundation.

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 References

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Computer methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, North-Holland, 186, 311-
338.
Deb, K., Agrawal, S., Pratap, A. and Meyarivan, T. (2000). A fast elitist non-
dominated sorting genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimization; NSGA-II.
Proceedings of the Parallel Problem Solving from Nature VI (PPSN-VI), 849-858.
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Iowa State University on 09/27/14. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Jeong, H. S., and Abraham, D. M. (2006) “Operational Response Model for

Physically Attacked Water Networks Using NSGA-II” Journal of Computing in Civil
Engineering, ASCE (In print).

Rossman, L. A. (2000). EPANET2 Users Manual. Cincinnati, Ohio, United States

Environmental Protection Agency.

Walski, T. M., Chase, D. V., and Savic, D. A. (2001). Water Distribution Modeling.
Haestad Press, Waterbury, CT., U.S.A.

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