RISK ASSESSMENT

KG32603
SAFETY IN OIL AND GAS
PREPARED BY: TS DR NORZILAWATI MOHAMAD
 WHAT IS RISK?

Combination of the likelihood

and consequences of a
specified hazardous event Risk = Severity x Probability
occurring
 RISK

• Risk is therefore expressed as fatality per year or money lost per

year
• There are several classes of risk assessments currently employed in
the world
• In Malaysia, the risk assessments will incorporate with Malaysia’s
Safety Legislation
• Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
• Chemical Health Risk Assessment (CHRA)
• Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC)
 SEVERITY

• Severity is the extent of damage incurred following the accident

• It can be in the form of fatality, injury, material loss or environmental
degradation
• To estimate the severity on an incident, detailed mathematical models are
often used. Many software are available to facilitate the effort (Risk Cloud,
ProcessMap, etc)
• Severity is expressed as probability of fatality (0 to 1), or money lost
incurred or some other measures depending on the nature of the assessment
 LIKELIHOOD
• Likelihood is the chance of an event to occur
• It is estimated based on historical data on failure frequency of individual
units or components.
• Eg: Failure data for gasket failure, pipe rupture, pump switch failure, etc.
have been surveyed and collected over the years and published.
• Methods are typically used to compute the overall likelihood of an event:
Fault-Tree Analysis (FTA)
Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
• Likelihood is expressed in terms of frequency of occurrence (per year)
 RISK ASSESSMENT
• Overall process of estimation the magnitude of risk and deciding
whether or not the risk is tolerable

Injury (head, body, etc.) RISK

RISK LIKELIHOOD CONSEQUENCES
Property damage
Loss of life
Violation to business license
Health disease (cancer,
asthma, etc.)

Very Likely – Could happen frequently
Likely – Could happen occasionally
Unlikely – Could happen but only rarely
High Unlikely – Could happen but
EXAMPLE OF RISK probably never will
Fatality
Major injuries (normally irreversible or
damage to health)
Minor injuries (normally reversible injury or
damage requiring days off work)
Negligible injuries (first aid)
 Manual
Confined Dropped
Handling
Space Object

Lifting/
TOP HSE Chemical
Rigging
RISK

Working at
Combustible Height
Hot work
Electrical Blasting
 UNDERSTANDING RISK

Recognize risk

Assess

Mitigate risk

Recover
 RISK CLASSIFICATION

Application of Risk Assessment

 Prioritize safety action
programme
 Rank and prioritize safety audit
findings
 Evaluate benefit of accident
Intolerable – immediate action
prevention measures
Substantial
 Prioritize expenditure
Moderate – action within 1 week
 Relative ranking of various types
Tolerable
of risks
Trivial – action within 1 month or longer
 TYPES OF RISK ASSESSMENT
Quantitative Qualitative
Scientific studies and measurements Semi-scientific or non-scientific
Comparison of results with limit values Judgement Decisions:
 Professional and personal experiences /
biases
 Code of Practices

Occupational hygiene, noise, structural NIL

design, ergonomic, etc.

Methods use: Methods use:

 Event Tree  Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA)
 Fault Tree  Checklist
 Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (FMEA)  What If
 HAZID / HAZOP
 PROS & CONS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
QUALITATIVE VS QUANTITATIVE
QUANTITATIVE
QUALITATIVE

 Use numerical model to assess risk

 Probability and consequence models
 Decide on risk level using judgement,
 Judgement, technical knowledge and
experience and technical knowledge
experience required
 Extremely subjective
 Subjectivity remains
 Personal and individual variations
 A good model reduces personal and
 May not be “bought in to” by any
individual biases/variations
medium to large scale organization
 Could be “bought in to” by any
medium to large scale company
 TYPE OF RISK CONSEQUENCES
ECONOMIC PERSONNEL
Category I : Mild reaction
Category I : Insignificant
Category I : < 1K
Category II : Minor
Category II : < 10K
Category III : Major
Category III : < 100K
Category IV : Severe
Category IV : < 1M
Category V : Fatality
Category V : > 1M
Category VI : Multiple
Category VI : Total Loss Category V : Serious injury
Fatalities
PUBLIC &
REACTION
ENVIRONMENT
(nuisance)
Category II : Minor local Category I : Insignificant
outcry (complaints) Category II : Temporary
Category III : Group
short term damage
attendances complaints
Category III : Major
Category IV :
pollution
Hospitalization & local
Category IV : Severe
media attention
pollution
Category V : Widespread
of local media attention damage
Category VI : Fatality/ Category VI : Catastrophic
government & media damage
attention
EFFECT ON PERSONNEL

Insignificant : No human injury expected or <3 days lost

time
Minor : Injury/illness, 3-28 or 56 days lost time,
full recovery expected
Major : Injury/illness, 28+ or 56+ days lost time,
or permanent slight incapacity
Severe : Permanent incapacitating injury/illness
 PROBABILITY (FREQUENCY)
EXPOSURE TO HAZARDS
RATING/EXPERIENCES

Estimated in time (% for 24 hr per day)

 1 in 10 (Frequent)
 1 in 100 (Probable)  <1% (very rare)
 1 in 1000 (Occasional)  1% (rare)
 1 in 10,000 (Remote)  25%
 1 in 100,000 (Improbable)  50%
 1 in 1,000,000 (Extremely Remote)  75%
 100% (continuous)
HAZARD, RISK, PROBABILITY & SEVERITY
 HAZARDS CONTROL

RISK ASSESSMENT RISK EVALUATION & ACCEPTANCE

Hazard identification Judgement about the acceptability

Assessment of probability of of risks and decision on measures
events
Implementation of safety
Assessment of severity of measures
events
 Start
HAZARD CONTROL PROCEDURE
SAFETY REVIEW
System Definition

Hazard Identification

Risk Assessment

Risk NO
Analysis of options for
accepted? further risk minimization

YES

Safety
 TYPES OF HAZARD
Chemical hazards (toxic, irritant, corrosive, carcinogenic)
Process hazards (temperature, pressure, corrosion)
Noise hazards (hearing damage)
Vibration hazards (numbness)
Dust hazards (lung & nasal blockage, explosion)
Fire hazards (burns, smokes, heat)
Explosion hazards (flying debris, sound blast, pressure)
Biological hazards (disease, mutation)
Illumination hazards (blindness)
Radiation hazards (organ damage, deformation, mutation)
Ecological hazards (harmful to plant and animal lives)
YOU CAN’T MITIGATE A HAZARD THAT YOU
DON’T KNOW !!
MANAGEMENT OF HAZARD

Identify the hazards and evaluate the risks

Document & communicate the information

Eliminate or reduce the hazards and risks

Control the hazards that remain in a safe manner

 GROUP ASSIGNMENT
Discuss the components and example of the process of conducting risk
assessment and evaluation.
HIRARC – G1 Risk Assessment

Methods (probability & risk ranking) – G2

Fault tree – G3
Probability Theory and Methods
Event tree – G4
Quantitative risk analysis – G5
Risk Analysis
Layer of protection analysis – G6 Presentation 10 min
Q&A 5 min (each group)
Example Risk Matrix Definitions
(a) Consequence severity
C1 Minor No or minor injuries
C2 Moderate Moderate injuries (restricted work day)
C3 Major Serious injuries (lost work day)
C4 Catastrophic Fatalities or multiple serious injuries
(b) Event frequency
F1 Extremely unlikely >1 in 10,000 years Risk Ranking = Frequency x Consequence
F2 Very unlikely 1 in 1000 to 10,000 years
F3 Unlikely 1 in 100 to 1000 years
F4 Likely <1 in 100 years Higher
(c) Risk ranking Risk
R1 Acceptable Improvement opportunity
R2 Tolerable Recommendation optional, improvement opportunity F4 R1 R3 R4 R4
R3 High Recommendation required to reach R2 or better
R4 Very High Recommendation required to reach R2 or better F3 R1 R2 R3 R4

Frequency
F2 R1 R1 R2 R3
F1 R1 R1 R1 R2
C1 C2 C3 C4
Lower Consequence
Risk
*Frequency of the event is determine using Bow Tie diagram
 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION, RISK ASSESSMENT &
RISK CONTROL (HIRARC)

• To identify all factors that may cause harm to employees and other (the
hazards)
• To consider what the chances are of that harm actually be falling
anyone in the circumstances of a particular case and the possible
severity that could come from it (the risk)
• To enable employers to plan, introduce and monitor preventive
measures to ensure that the risk are adequately controlled at all times
 WHEN TO DO HIRARC?

• Where hazard appear to pose significant threat

• When uncertain whether existing controls are adequate
• Before implementing corrective or preventive measures
• By organization intending to continuously improve OSH
Management System
 PROCESS OF HIRARC
Health hazards
Safety hazards
Environmental hazards

Conduct risk
assessment (analyze Decide if risk is
Classify work Identify hazard & estimate risk from tolerable and apply
activities each hazard) by control measures
calculating or
estimating

 Geographical/physical area within/outside

premises
 Stages in production/services process Severity of
 Not too big (eg: building a car) Likelihood
hazard
 Not too small (eg: fixing a nut) occurrence
 Defined task (eg: loading, packing, mixing, fixing
the door
LIKELIHOOD OCCURRENCE
SEVERITY OF HAZARDS
HIRARC SHEET
RISK MATRIX

Source : HIRARC Guidelines by DOSH Malaysia

HIERARCHY OF RISK CONTROL
 PROBABILITY THEORY

• Equipment failures or faults in a process occur as a result of a complex

interaction of the individual components
• With adequate data it can be shown that on average, the component fails
after a certain period of time
• Average failure rate is represented by 𝜇𝜇 with units of faults/time
• The probability that the component will not fail during time interval (0,𝑡𝑡).
Eq. 1 𝑅𝑅 𝑡𝑡 = 𝑒𝑒 −𝜇𝜇𝜇𝜇 - Poisson distribution
𝑅𝑅 is reliability
• Assume a constant failure rate 𝜇𝜇 in Eq. 1
• As 𝑡𝑡 → ∞, R = 0
• The speed at which this occurs depends on the value of the failure
rate 𝜇𝜇
• The higher the failure rate, the faster the reliability decreases
 Failure Probability (unreliability)

Failure density function

Failure density function in terms of period of time

The time interval between two failures of the components is
called the mean time between failures (MTBF)
 INTERACTIONS BETWEEN PROCESS UNITS

Parallel structure (logical AND function)

Total Reliability
 Series structure (logical OR function)

Overall Failure Probability

System composed of two components A and B

Failure probabilities are too small - negligible

 PROBABILISTIC METHODS

• Begin with an initiating event and work toward the

top event
• Inductive approach – estimation of potential incident
EVENT TREES frequency
• Provide information on how failure can occur and the
probability of occurrence

• Begins with a well-defined accident, or top event,

and works backward toward the various scenarios
that can cause the accident
FAULT TREES • Deductive approach – aims at testing an existing
theory
• Identifying ways in which hazards can lead to
accidents
 EVENT TREES
Steps for analysis:

1. Identify an initiating event of

interest
2. Identify the safety functions
designed to deal with the
initiating event
3. Construct the event tree
4. Describe the resulting accident
event sequence
The computational sequence across a
safety function in an event tree
  FAULT TREES

Steps for analysis:

1. Define precisely the top event

2. Define the existing event
3. Define the un-allowed events
4. Define the physical bounds of
the process
5. Define the equipment
configuration
6. Define the level of resolution

LOGIC TRANSFER COMPONENTS USED IN A FAULT TREE

Flat tire example is pictured using
a Fault Tree logic diagram Advantages
 Begins with a top event
 To determine the minimal cut sets – increase
reliability of the system
 Enables the application of computers

Disadvantages
 Complicated process
 Uncertainty failure modes to be considered
 Assume failures are “hard” – not fail partially
 Develop by different individuals, usually will
have different structure
 RISK ANALYSIS
• Semi-quantitative tool for analyzing and
 Method that identifies where operations,
assessing risk
engineering, or management systems can
• Simplified methods to characterize the
be modified to reduce risk
consequences and estimate the
 Complexity of QRA depends on
frequencies
objectives of study and information
• The combined effects of the protection
available
layers and the consequences are then
 QRA provide managers tools on evaluate
compared against some risk tolerance
overall risk of a process
criteria

QRA – Quantitative Risk LOPA - Layer of Protection

Analysis Analysis
Major steps of QRA study:

1. Defining the potential event sequences and

potential incidents
2. Evaluating the incident consequences
(modelling/software)
3. Estimating the potential incident frequencies
using event tree and fault trees
4. Estimating the incident impacts on people,
environment and property
5. Estimating risk by combining the impacts
and frequencies and recording the risk
using graph
Major steps of LOPA study:

1. Identify a single consequence

2. Identify an accident scenario and cause
associated with the consequence
3. Identify the initiating event for the scenario and
estimating the initiating event frequency
4. Identify the protection layers available for this
particular consequence and estimating the
probability of failure on demand for each
protection layer
5. Combining the initiating event frequency with
the probabilities of failure on demand for the
independent protection layers to estimate a
mitigated consequence frequency for the
initiating event
6. Plotting the consequence vs consequence
frequency to estimate risk
7. Evaluating risk for acceptability
END OF CHAPTER