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TET 407 - Demand Analysis, Load Curves and Factors
TET 407 - Demand Analysis, Load Curves and Factors
Energy Units
Common short names for large numbers
Name Symbol Exp Name Symbol Exp
tce Ton of coal equivalent 1 tce = 29.3*109 J 0.7 toe 8.14 MWh
Power measurements
MW Megawatt 1 MW = 106 W
GW Gigawatt 1 GW = 109 W
Wth Thermal
power
Wel Electrical
power
Weight, Pressure & Temperature measurements
Symbol Name Equivalents
Weight T Tonne (metric ton) 1000 kg or 2,204 lbs
kt Kilotonne 1 kt = 103 t
Mt Megatonne 1 Mt = 106 t
Gasoline 8.8 kWh/l 12.0 kWh/kg Methane 9.97 kWh/m3 13.9 kWh/kg
Kerosene 9.8 kWh/l 11.94 kWh/kg Town gas 4.54 kWh/m3 7.57 kWh/kg
Methanol 4.44 kWh/l 5.47 kWh/kg Biogas 6.5 kWh/m3 5.56 kWh/kg
Natural gas 8.8-10.4 kWh/m3 10.6-13.1 kWh/kg Fire wood - 4.28 kWh/kg
Load curves
A load curve/profile is a graph of the
variation in the electrical load versus
time.
A load profile will vary according to
customer type (typical examples include
residential, commercial and industrial),
temperature and holiday seasons.
Power producers use this information to
plan how much electricity they will
need to make available at any given
time
With the traditional curves, use of
power plants was predictable with
baseload units running all day,
intermediate load units starting in the
morning, and peaking units dispatched
to meet the seasonal load peaks.
In a power system, a load curve or load profile is a chart illustrating the variation in
demand/electrical load over a specific time. Generation companies use this information
to plan how much power they will need to generate at any given time.
In an electricity distribution grid, the load profile of electricity usage is important to the
efficiency and reliability of power transmission.
The power transformer or battery-to-grid are critical aspects of power distribution and
sizing and modelling of batteries or transformers depends on the load profile.
The factory specifications of transformers for the optimization of load losses versus no-
load losses is dependent directly on the characteristics of the load profile that the
transformer is expected to be subjected to.
This includes such characteristics as average load factor, diversity factor, utilization factor,
and demand factor, which can all be calculated based on a given load profile.
With the growth of utility-scale
renewables, system operators
move from just looking at the
load curve to studying the net
load curve – the amount of
load that will served by
traditional generating units
after variable renewable supply
has been subtracted.
In most regions, growth of DERs
has yet to show a significant
impact on load curves.
But it is just a matter of time in
regions with fast growth in
rooftop solar.
Calculating and recording load profiles
Load profiles can be determined by direct metering but on smaller devices such as
distribution network transformers this is not routinely done.
Instead a load profile can be inferred from customer billing or other data. An example
of a practical calculation used by utilities is using a transformer's maximum demand
reading and taking into account the known number of each customer type supplied by
these transformers. This process is called load research.
Actual demand can be collected at strategic locations to perform more detailed load
analysis; this is beneficial to both distribution and end-user customers looking for
peak consumption.
Smart grid meters, utility meter load profilers, data logging sub-meters and portable
data loggers are designed to accomplish this task by recording readings at a set
interval.
Kenya’s load profile
Load factor
The load factor is defined as the average load divided by the peak load in a
specified time period.
It is a measure of the utilization rate, or efficiency of electrical energy usage; a
high load factor indicates that load is using the electric system more efficiently,
whereas consumers or generators that underutilize the electric distribution will
have a low load factor.
Demand factor
The term demand factor is used to refer to the fractional amount of some quantity
being used relative to the maximum amount that could be used by the same system.
The demand factor is always less than or equal to one.
As the amount of demand is a time dependent quantity so is the demand factor.
Example: If a residence has equipment which could draw up to 6,000 W when all equipment was drawing a full
load, the it drew a maximum of 3,000 W in a specified time, the demand factor is hence = 3,000 W / 6,000 W = 0.5
Capacity factor
The capacity factor is the unit-less ratio of actual electrical energy output over a given
period of time to the theoretical maximum electrical energy output over that period.
The theoretical maximum energy output of a given installation is defined as that due to
its continuous operation at full nameplate capacity over the relevant period.
Wind farm
Utilization factor
The utilization factor or use factor is the ratio of the time that a piece of equipment is
in use to the total time that it could be in use. It is often averaged over time in the
definition such that the ratio becomes the amount of energy used divided by the
maximum possible to be used.
Demand Estimation
Estimations are made regarding the amounts of energy that a country will
need in the future and plans are formulated based on these estimations
Statistical methods are used for Demand Estimation
Econometric models
Model for the Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED), Optimal Renewable Energy
Mathematical Model (OREM) & Energy Simulation Model (ESM) use changes in population
and GNP/GDP.