Journal Pre-proof

East Palu Valley Flowslides Induced by the 2018 MW 7.5 Palu-

Donggala Earthquake

H. Benjamin Mason, Jack Montgomery, Aaron P. Gallant, Daniel

Hutabarat, A. Nicole Reed, Joseph Wartman, Masyhur Irsyam,
Pintor T. Simatupang, Idrus M. Alatas, Widjojo A. Prakoso,
Didiek Djarwadi, Rahma Hanifa, Paulus Rahardjo, Lutfi Faizal,
Dandung S. Harnanto, Aksan Kawanda, Agus Himawan, Widodo
Yasin

PII: S0169-555X(20)30455-4
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107482
Reference: GEOMOR 107482

To appear in: Geomorphology

Received date: 5 May 2020

Revised date: 13 October 2020
Accepted date: 30 October 2020

Please cite this article as: H.B. Mason, J. Montgomery, A.P. Gallant, et al., East Palu Valley
Flowslides Induced by the 2018 MW 7.5 Palu-Donggala Earthquake, Geomorphology
(2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107482

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such
as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is
not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting,
typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this
version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production
process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers
that apply to the journal pertain.

© 2020 Published by Elsevier.

 Journal Pre-proof

East Palu Valley Flowslides Induced by the 2018 MW 7.5 Palu-Donggala Earthquake

H. Benjamin Mason1, Jack Montgomery2, Aaron P. Gallant3, Daniel Hutabarat4, A. Nicole Reed2, Joseph Wartman5,
Masyhur Irsyam6, Pintor T. Simatupang7, Idrus M. Alatas8, Widjojo A. Prakoso9, Didiek Djarwadi10, Rahma
Hanifa10, Paulus Rahardjo11, Lutfi Faizal10, Dandung S. Harnanto12, Aksan Kawanda13, Agus Himawan12, Widodo
Yasin12

[1] Oregon State University, [2] Auburn University, [3] University of Maine, [4] University of California at Berkeley, [5]
University of Washington, [6] Bandung Institute of Technology, [7] University of Mercu Buana, [8] National Institute of
Sciences and Technology, Jakarta, [9] University of Indonesia, [10] National Research Center for Earthquake Study, Bandung,
[11] Parahyangan Catholic University, [12] Indonesian Society for Geotechnical Engineering, [13] University of Trisakti

Corresponding author: H. Benjamin Mason, 450 Learning Innovation Center, Oregon State University, Corvallis,
Oregon 97331 USA; +1 (541) 737-6419; mason@oregonstate.edu

of
Abstract: The 2018 MW 7.5 Palu-Donggala, Indonesia earthquake initiated a series of

ro
catastrophic flowslides that claimed the lives of several thousand people, making it the deadliest

natural disaster of 2018. Three of the most significant flowslides, which occurred in the

-p
communities of Petobo, Jono Oge, and Lolu Village, were clustered within alluvial sediments of
re
the Palu River Valley. Post-earthquake field reconnaissance, subsurface investigation,
lP

eyewitness interviews, and geomechanical analyses indicate that the failure sequence began

when the earthquake ground motion raised pore water pressures in the saturated interbedded
na

alluvial sediments. The flowslides were not coseismic but instead occurred several minutes after
ur

earthquake shaking ended. We hypothesize that high excess pore pressures created large
Jo

hydraulic gradients within the alluvial sediments, which ultimately triggered progressive

liquefaction that led to a redistribution of stresses and accumulation of shear strains. The

flowslides were then initiated as gravitational driving stresses began to exceed the residual

strength of the liquefied soil. Given the interbedded stratigraphy, we speculate that void

redistribution and the development of water films possibly contributed to low residual strengths.

An adjacent unlined agricultural canal played a critical role in the failure sequence by artificially

raising the groundwater level, thereby increasing the susceptibility to liquefaction and attendant

strength loss.

1
 Journal Pre-proof

Keywords: flowslides, liquefaction, earthquakes, landslides

1. Introduction

The MW 7.5 Palu-Donggala earthquake occurred on 28 September 2018 at 18:02 local time

(USGS 2018). The earthquake rupture occurred on the Palu-Koro fault, which traverses Palu

of
City and the surrounding Central Sulawesi region of Indonesia (Figure 1). The earthquake

ro
epicenter was located approximately 75 km north of Palu City at a depth of 10 km, and geodetic

-p
evidence indicates that the fault ruptured along a 180-km-span as a ―supershear‖ event (Bao et

al., 2019; Socquet et al., 2019); accordingly, the rupture rate exceeded the shear wave velocity
re
of the surrounding geologic materials, producing high intensity shaking. The earthquake initiated
lP

a series of catastrophic landslides (Bradley et al., 2019; Mason et al., 2019; Miyajima et al.,
na

2019; Nurdin et al., 2019; Rohit et al., 2019; Watkinson and Hall, 2019; Gallant et al., 2020;

Hidayat et al., 2020, Kiyota et al., 2020), collapsed buildings (Robertson et al., 2019), and
ur

generated tsunami waves that impacted coastal areas surrounding Palu Bay (Mikami et al., 2019;
Jo

Omira et al., 2019; Paulik et al., 2019; Stolle et al., 2020). The earthquake claimed more than

4,000 lives making it the deadliest natural disaster of 2018. Landslides initiated near Palu were

responsible for a substantial majority of the fatalities. The earthquake also displaced more than

200,000 people and resulted in estimated economic losses of US$911 million (Table 1).

2
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

Figure 1. Overview map of the Palu basin showing the locations of the flowslides (outlined
in red) and the Palu-Koro fault. The inset map shows the location of the epicenter and the
highlight region of the Palu Valley relative to the island of Sulawesi. Pre-earthquake
satellite imagery from Digital Globe (2018).

The United States Geologic Survey (USGS) estimated the maximum peak ground

acceleration (PGA) in Palu City to be in the range of 0.7 g to 0.85 g, which corresponds to a

3
 Journal Pre-proof

modified Mercali intensity (MMI) of 7.5 (USGS 2018); however, the PGA estimate is based on

sparse recordings. A seismic station located within Palu City (PCI-PALU; -0.90554, 119.83666),

approximately 80 km from the epicenter, recorded the earthquake ground motion. The

acceleration-time series indicates horizontal PGA values of 0.29 g in the east-west direction and

0.21 g in the north-south direction. Because the station is located near the Palu Bay, where thick

deposits of saturated loose sandy soil are present, the low-recorded PGA values, relative to

USGS estimates, could be attributed to attenuation of ground motions as underlying soils

of
softened due to liquefaction. An alternative explanation is that the PCI-PALU seismic station did

ro
not record the earthquake motion correctly. We understand that other seismic recordings from

-p
Palu City, broadband or otherwise, are not available, thus precluding a more comprehensive
re
verification of the recordings at the PCI-PALU seismic station. Two other seismometers

reportedly recorded the earthquake, the MPSI station in Sabang (approximately 350 km from
lP

Palu City), and the PMCI station in Poso (about 180 km from Palu City); however, these data are
na

not openly available, and regardless, the stations are far from Palu City.

Table 1. Damage estimates from the Palu-Donggala earthquake

ur

Category Losses Source

Jo

Economic US$911 Million Jakarta Post (2018)

Fatalities 4,340 Jakarta Post (2019)
Major Injuries 4,438 AHA (2018)
Missing Persons 667 Jakarta Post (2019)
Displaced Persons 206,494 AHA (2018)
Destroyed Buildings 68,451 AHA (2018)

In this article, we report the findings of a joint Indonesian-U.S. research team (i.e.,

Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association, or GEER) that conducted a one-week

field reconnaissance of earthquake-induced landslides in the mesoseismal region in early

November 2018 (Mason et al., 2019). The reconnaissance team consisted of geoscientists and

4
 Journal Pre-proof

geotechnical engineers from Indonesia's Center for Earthquake Studies (PusGen), the Indonesian

Society of Geotechnical Engineers (HATTI), and several U.S. universities. We focused our post-

earthquake reconnaissance efforts on three large landslides along the east side of the Palu Valley

(Figure 1), which occurred in the communities of Lolu Village, Petobo, and Jono Oge. Following

the classification nomenclature of Hungr et al. (2014), we refer to the landslides as flowslides,

which involve the rapid flow of liquefied granular material on moderately inclined slopes. At

Jono Oge, a debris flood (i.e., a rapid flow of water heavily charged with debris; Hungr et al.,

of
2014) also developed (Figure 1) in response to a flowslide-induced breach of the irrigation canal.

ro
The debris flood caused damage in several communities located below (west of) the Jono Oge

-p
flowslide. Figure 1 also shows the location of the Balaroa flowslide in the western portion of
re
Palu Valley. At the time of our arrival in Palu City, the majority of the Balaroa flowslide was

disturbed by anthropogenic activity related to rescue and recovery efforts (e.g., site clearing,
lP

regrading, and rebuilding); therefore, our reconnaissance activities at the Balaroa flowslide were
na

minimal (Mason et al., 2019). We conducted a separate, detailed reconnaissance at the Sibalaya

flowslide site 35 km south of Palu City, as described by Gallant et al. (2020). The primary goals
ur

of the GEER reconnaissance were to document the engineering geologic features of the
Jo

flowslides, focusing on perishable field data, and to make the data openly available to the natural

hazards community (Montgomery et al., 2020a).

We used a combination of ground-based field surveys, voluntary eyewitness interviews

with local residents, and high-resolution imaging from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),

supplemented by satellite imagery, to investigate the flowslides. We mapped the flowslides using

a DJI Inspire 2 UAV platform with a Zenmuse X4S camera (25 mm sensor, with 20 MP

resolution). UAV flights were typically flown at an elevation of 65 m, providing a pixel

5
 Journal Pre-proof

resolution of approximately 2 cm. We later post-processed the images to develop high-resolution

orthomosaic images and digital surface models (Montgomery et al., 2020b). Ground control

points, located in the field with high-resolution real-time kinematic GPS instruments, provided a

95% confidence interval geolocation accuracy of 10 cm for the ground control points.

2. Geologic setting

of
Palu Valley was formed by transtensional tectonic activity along the roughly north-south-

ro
trending Palu-Koro fault system (Tjia, 1981; Bellier et al., 2001, 2006; Patria and Putra, 2020).

-p
Figure 1 shows the northern portion of the fault system, which includes the highly active Palu-

Koro fault located along the western margin of the valley and an inactive sidewall fault at the
re
eastern edge of the basin, approximately 1 km upland of the flowslides (Bellier et al., 2006,
lP

Watkinson and Hall, 2017). Geodetic measurements indicate a slip rate of ~39 mm/year (Socquet
na

et al., 2006) on the Palu-Koro fault, and paleoseismic investigations have found evidence of

three Mw 6.8 to 8.0 earthquakes during the past 2000 years (i.e., a recurrence interval of ~700
ur

years) (Beaudouin, 1998). Lower magnitude though still damaging earthquakes reportedly
Jo

occurred along the Palu-Koro fault in 1905, 1907, 1909, 1927, 1934, 1968, 1985, and 1993

(Watkinson and Hall, 2017).

The mountains west of Palu valley, known as the ―Lariang region‖ (van Leeuwen and

Muhardjo, 2005), primarily consist of the Latimojong Formation, which includes weakly

metamorphosed pelitic (shale, mudstone) and psammitic rocks (siltstone, sandstone). The

mountains bordering the eastern margin of the valley, known as the "Lindu region," comprise a

thin segment of the Celebes Molasse (weakly cemented sandstone and mudstone), which is

6
 Journal Pre-proof

bordered to the east by the Palu Metamorphic complex (schist, gneiss) [van Leeuwen and

Muhardjo, 2005].

Figure 2 shows the principal geomorphic features of Palu Valley, which include alluvial

fans and the surfaces of older fan units that border an alluvial plain. The north-flowing Palu

River (Sungai Palu) meanders through the alluvial plain of the valley. Bellier et al. (1999)

identified two distinct alluvial fan units in Palu valley: (1) older fans, with eroded surfaces at the

valley margins, and (2) younger units that overlay and truncate the older fan deposits.

of
Cosmogenic (10Be) dating of sediments along the west side of the valley indicate abandonment

ro
ages of ~11 kya and ~120 kya for the young and older alluvial fan units, respectively (Bellier et

-p
al., 1999; Patria and Putra, 2020). Following the 2018 earthquake, Kiyota et al. (2020) performed
re
carbon 14 dating on near-surface (< 3 m depth) sediments proximal to the flowslides (i.e.,

alluvial plain sediments) and found a deposition age of 1 kya to 2 kya. The Palu region is tropical
lP

rainforest (Köppen Af classification) characterized by heavy rainfall year-round. The present-day

na

climate conditions produce frequent, intense rainstorms in the surrounding mountains that funnel

large volumes of water into the valley through feeder channels. When the rainwater emerges at
ur

the apex of an alluvial fan, it incises and erodes channels in the abandoned fan unit (Figure 2).
Jo

As shown in geomorphic mapping, the upper reaches of the three east valley flowslides are

located at or close to the distal edge of young alluvial fans. Recently, Kiyota et al. (2020)

excavated shallow (up to 4-m-deep) exploration trenches through the scarps of the Potebo and

Jono Oge flowslides and found generally alternating ~0.5 m to 1 m interbedded layers of well-

graded gravely, sandy, or silty alluvial sediments. As presented in §4, cone penetration test

(CPT) soundings performed as part of our fieldwork reveal centimeter to decimeter-scale

sediment grain size fluctuation within the thicker interbedded alluvial units.

7
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

Figure 2. Palu Valley's main geomorphic features include an alluvial plain (center) and a
series of young alluvial fans and older fan surfaces that flank the valley's east and west
edges. We identified significant features based on their shape, surface texture, slope, and
drainage patterns. The upper portions of the Petobo, Lolu Village, and Jone Oge flowslides
fall within or close to young alluvial fans' distal edges. The shaded relief base image is
derived from the 8.5 m resolution Indonesian national DEM (known as DEMNAS),
representing topography before the Palu-Donggala earthquake. The superimposed dark
blue topographic contour line has an interval of 20 m. Topographic asperities in the
alluvial plain correspond to anthropogenic works (buildings and infrastructure) and
vegetation at agricultural plantations rather than natural ground surface features.

8
 Journal Pre-proof

3. Post-earthquake reconnaissance

The east valley flowslides mainly lie in the alluvial plain near the distal edge of young alluvial

fan units (Figure 2). The Palu River Valley has undergone a moderate degree of anthropogenic

modification, notably including the construction of a canal that borders the eastern margin of the

flowslides. The canal provides flood control and supplies irrigation water to adjacent rice fields.

The canal is mostly unlined (Figure 3), allowing water infiltration and seepage downhill towards

of
the Palu River. Herein, we used the word ―unlined‖ to imply that no concrete lining was used.

ro
Eyewitnesses report that the depth of water in the canal was 2.0 m to 2.5 m at the time of the

earthquake.
-p
Figure 3 shows the satellite-derived, post-earthquake ground displacement map of Palu
re
Valley that guided our field reconnaissance. We estimated displacements by comparing the
lP

locations of buildings in pre-earthquake and post-earthquake satellite images (Digital Globe,

na

2018). Vertices and other well-defined points were selected on the images to compute the

displacement of 1,220 buildings, which we then contoured using inverse distance weighting.
ur

Some post-earthquake building locations within the flowslide footprints were identified based on
Jo

high-resolution post-earthquake UAV imagery or ground photos. Montgomery et al. (2020b)

describe details on the processing. Figure 3 shows that ground displacements along the east side

of the Palu Valley were generally oriented west (i.e., downslope towards the Palu River).

Deformations greater than 50 m occurred at four locations, including the flowslides of Petobo,

Lolu Village, and Jono Oge. A smaller, less pronounced flowslide not investigated by our team

also occurred in rice fields between Petobo and Lolu Village. We determined the flowslide

boundaries in Figure 3, which were relatively distinct, using post-earthquake satellite imagery,

9
 Journal Pre-proof

UAV-derived digital surface models, and field mapping. Outside the footprint of the flowslides,

displacements as great as 30 m caused significant ground cracking, resulting in damage to

infrastructure and buildings. The transition to a concrete-lined canal along the northern edge of

Petobo coincides with a marked decrease in ground displacement.

of
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur

Figure 3. Displacements mapped from pre- and post-earthquake satellite imagery

combined with field observations and post-earthquake UAV images. Displacement
measurements are plotted based on the original location of the structure. The approximate
Jo

boundaries of the flowslides are outlined and include runout areas where displacements of
the existing ground were small.

Table 2 summarizes the remotely sensed data used to assess the community impacts,

including the estimated pre-earthquake population and the number of buildings within the

footprint of each flowslide and the debris flood at Jono Oge. We derived the pre-earthquake

building inventory from data accessible on openstreetmap.org (last accessed 28 April 2020). The

population estimate was computed by evenly distributing the population derived from 250 m

10
 Journal Pre-proof

gridded data from the 2015 global human settlement population layer

(https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/; last accessed 28 April 2020) across the number of buildings within

each cell. An independent check of our methodology using Indonesian government data for all of

Palu suggests that our population estimates are accurate to within 2 percent. At the time of the

earthquake (18:02 local time), some residents were away from their houses, and therefore, the

population exposure to the flowslides is less than the total estimated population.

Table 2: Characteristics of the Petobo, Jono Oge, and Lolu Village flowslides as well as the

of
Jono Oge debris flood, where A is the flowslide area, DR is the maximum runout distance,
DS is the maximum displacement of a building, N is the number of affected buildings, and
PE is the estimated pre-earthquake population within the respective flowslide footprints.

ro
Flowslide A (km2) DR (km)† DS (km)‡ N PE
Lolu Village
Petobo
0.22
1.43
0.25
1.05 -p 0.13
0.73
230
1,482
411
3,694
re
Jono Oge 1.35 1.25 1.23 192 2,735
Jono Oge Debris Flood - - - 406‖ 4,427‖
lP

† Measured as the longest length of morphological Zone C in the direction of sliding (see Figures 5, 8, and 11)
‡ The largest mapped displacement of an individual building (see Figures 5, 8, and 11)
‖ Based on inundation area outside the footprint of the Jono Oge flowslide
na
ur

3.1 Field observations and morphology

Jo

We divided the flowslides into three generalized morphological zones (A, B, and C) to aid our

discussion of field observations and to highlight morphological features common to the

flowslides. The morphological zones were delineated based on a combination of our field

observations, shaded relief maps derived from UAV-based digital surface models, and post-

earthquake satellite imagery. The morphological zones define different modes of ground

deformation, post-earthquake geomorphologic expressions, and erosive or depositional features

present immediately after the earthquake (Table 3). In the following sections, we provide a

11
 Journal Pre-proof

summary of field observations and morphology for each flowslide; Mason et al. (2019) give

more detail on reconnaissance observations. For clarity and to facilitate comparison of different

flowslide locations, mapping of morphologic zones in this article are simplified from those of

Mason et al. (2019). We first describe the Lolu Village flowslide because its flowslide motion

ceased before it could progress into a large deformation event. Consequently, the Lolu Village

flowslide likely provides unique insight into the initial progression of the other two flowslides.

We then discuss the Petobo flowslide, which is the focus of our in-depth geomechanical

of
analyses. Finally, we discuss the Jono Oge flowslide, which collapsed a nearby section of the

ro
canal, triggering a large and damaging debris flood. The Jono Oge flowslide is the least well-

-p
preserved site because of the debris flooding that flowed through the flowslide footprint.
re
Table 3: General descriptions of the three morphological zones at each flowslide location
lP

Zone Description
Zone of retrogressive failure: Laterally spreading region that contains the headscarps
followed by distinct, back- rotated soil blocks. Blocks generally disintegrate and decrease
na

A in size downhill in the direction of flow. Evidence of erosion and debris flood in
localized areas.
ur

Zone of initiation: Region where the flow slides initiated; typically, where the greatest
degree of geomorphic destruction and erosion occurred, and where the largest ground
Jo

B displacements were observed. The area also delineates the transition from lateral
spreading and dilation to accretion and contraction.

Zone of runout and deposition: Region of accretion and deposition of eroded and debris
C flood materials, containing heavily reworked and stacked or uplifted blocks, rafted crust,
and compression ridges.

3.3.1 Lolu Village Flowslide

The Lolu Village flowslide occurred in a region of mixed residential and agricultural land

use. Figure 4 shows a shaded relief map and significant morphological features. Figure 5

12
 Journal Pre-proof

presents post-earthquake satellite imagery, the magnitude of displacements, photographs, and the

locations of observed sand boil ejecta. Figure 6 shows relevant photographs of the Lolu Village

flowslide taken during our field reconnaissance – the locations of the photographs are

demarcated on Figure 5.

of
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

13
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
(a)
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

(b)
Figure 4. Shaded relief map for Lolu Village showing the topography after the flowslide
occurred (a) across the entire area and (b) zoomed in on the flowslide only. The pre-
earthquake location of the irrigation canal is shown as a blue line, while the
geomorphologic zones are shown with red lines. The sheared housing complex and
damaged gas station (photos in Figure 6) are highlighted. The vertical scale in these
perspective views has been exaggerated by a factor of 2.5 and tall vegetation has been
manually removed to show the surface detail. The inset diagram in Figure (a) shows the
post-earthquake elevations along the section A-A’.

14
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
-p
re
lP
na

Figure 5. Post-earthquake imagery of the Lolu Village flowslide showing the locations of
the flowslide boundary, significant cracking, geomorphologic zones, and locations of
ur

mapped sand boils. Displacement vectors are shown with the tail at the original location
and head at the final location of the mapped structure. The color of the vector indicates the
magnitude of displacement. Locations of photos in Figure 6 are also shown.
Jo

15
 Journal Pre-proof

of
(a) (b)

ro
-p
re
lP
na

(c) (d)
ur

Figure 6. Post-earthquake field reconnaissance photographs of the Lolu Village flowslide.

Jo

Locations of the photographs are shown in Figure 5.

The upper (i.e., eastern) reaches of Zone A – shown in Figure 5 as east of the flowslide

boundary – featured large north-south-trending tension cracks caused by a reduction in

confinement as larger displacements occurred downslope in Zone B. The ground is visibly

depressed east of the main road as a result (Figure 4a). Grabben-like down-dropped ridges

formed (photo in Figure 6b), resulting in abrupt differential settlement and lateral spreading that

caused significant damage or the complete collapse of buildings in the immediate area. The

16
 Journal Pre-proof

ridges likely represent the initial formation of a headscarp. Lateral spreading is limited in Zone A

east of the flowslide boundary and does not resemble the back-rotated soil block morphology

found in the upper reaches of the other flowslides. Tension cracks formed in the irrigation canal

at the eastern extent of Zone A, but deformation was limited and the canal walls remained

largely intact. Larger displacements occurred downslope along the western extent of Zone A near

the main road, which is inside the flowslide boundary shown in Figure 5 (gas station photo in

Figure 6a).

of
The largest ground movements, up to 150 m, occurred in Zone B. Significant lateral

ro
spreading in the eastern half of Zone B resulted in isolated soil blocks and the formation of

-p
visible laterally extended seams trending in the north-south direction (Figure 4b). Ground
re
distress in the western half of Zone B was less apparent, suggesting a more coherent movement

of the groundmass. The preceding observations suggest that the center-west portion of Zone B
lP

represents the approximate region where the flowslide initiated and intact movement of the
na

groundmass, and the center-east portion of Zone B represents the transition to retrogressive

failure of ground upslope.

ur

Some of the most significant damage occurred along the northern margin of the flowslide
Jo

footprint, where a housing complex was sheared as the groundmass flowed atop a bed of

liquefied ground. A photograph in Figure 6c shows sand boil ejecta, indicating liquefaction

beneath the original footprint of the housing complex. The photograph also shows, in the

background, partially disintegrated soil blocks and banana trees that slid downslope. Another

noteworthy observation is that ground displacements in the northern half of Zone B were greater

than those observed in the southern half. The original north-south trending boundaries of a field

at the center of Zone B—mapped based on pre-earthquake satellite imagery—are offset in the

17
 Journal Pre-proof

east-west direction (green lines in Figure 4b). Thus, the groundmass appears to have ruptured

along an east-west trending rift through the center of the zone, which is marked in Figure 5.

Compression ridges and uplifted ground in Zone C suggest that movement was arrested

by buttressing on debris as the flowslide progressed (Figure 6d). The debris consisted of

disintegrated soil blocks, downed trees, and a ruptured section of road visible near the eastern

extent of Zone C, which rotated and deformed as the flowslide came to a halt. The flowslide

terminates where the topography flattens.

of
ro
3.1.2 Petobo Flowslide

-p
The Petobo flowslide occurred approximately 1 km south of the Mutiara SIS Al Jufri
re
International Airport. Eyewitnesses first observed ground deformation within the southern
lP

portion of the flowslide footprint followed by flowslide movement cascading northward, where

the largest deformations occurred. The flowslide eventually formed the two distinct "legs."
na

Petobo is a densely populated residential district; therefore, loss-of-life, injuries, and structural
ur

damage were large. Figures 7 and 8 show the UAV-based digital surface models and post-

earthquake satellite imagery for the Petobo flowslide, respectively. Figure 9 shows relevant
Jo

photographs of the Petoto flowslide taken during our field reconnaissance – the locations of the

photographs are demarcated on Figure 8.

18
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
-p
re
lP

Figure 7. Shaded relief map for Petobo showing the topography after the flowslide
occurred. The pre-earthquake location of the irrigation canal is shown as a blue line, while
the geomorphologic zones are shown with red lines. An area of non-displaced, but damaged
na

buildings is shown near the bottom of the figure. The vertical scale in this perspective view
has been exaggerated by a factor of 1.5 and tall vegetation has been manually removed to
show the surface detail. The inset diagram shows the post-earthquake elevations along the
ur

section B-B’. High-quality ground control points were not available for Petobo, so these
elevations should be considered approximate.
Jo

19
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
-p
re
lP

Figure 8. Post-earthquake imagery of the Petobo flowslide showing important features,

geomorphologic zones, and locations of mapped sand boils. Displacement vectors are
na

shown with the tail at the original location and head at the final location of the mapped
structure. The color of the vector indicates the magnitude of displacement. Locations of
ur

post-earthquake CPTs, cross-section used in the geomechanical analyses (C-C’) and photos
in Figure 9 are also shown.
Jo

20
 Journal Pre-proof

of
(a) (b)

ro
-p
re
lP
na

(c) (d)
ur

Figure 9. Post-earthquake field reconnaissance photographs of the Petobo flowslide.

Jo

Locations of the photographs are shown in Figure 8.

Geomorphic expressions in Zone A consist of large soil blocks, several meters high near

the flowslide's crest, that are down-dropped and laterally extended (Figure 7). The size of soil

blocks gradually diminishes downslope from the headscarp. The deformation patterns of the soil

blocks suggest that they deformed across imbricated failure surfaces — visible near the crest —

during the early stages of the flowslide progression. Lateral spreading ultimately created isolated

soil blocks, which rafted along a décollement of liquefied sandy material. Soil blocks that

21
 Journal Pre-proof

underwent larger displacements were heavily reworked and largely disintegrated near the

interface of Zone A and Zone B. We speculate that disintegrated soil blocks from Zone A

partially overrode and slid along sediments constituting the floor of Zone B (see photograph at

the interface of Zones A and B in Figure 9).

Sand boils and ejecta were preserved between soil blocks on the floor of Zone A; though

we speculate liquefaction occurred throughout Zone B as well, because sand boil ejecta in Zone

A contained fine sandy soils with a modest silt content, similar to soil comprising the floor of

of
Zone B. The floor of Zone B was saturated and significantly looser than in Zone A during our

ro
ground survey (see photograph of Zone B in Figure 9b). The foregoing observations support the

-p
interpretation that Zone A materials glided along the lower-lying liquefied sediments comprising
re
the floor of Zone B after the flowslide ended.

The ground deformation patterns suggest that lateral extension and loss of confinement
lP

near the headscarp in Zone A caused severe tension cracking within the canal, and in some areas,
na

collapse of the canal side walls (n.b., the canal was dry at the time of the reconnaissance). We

also observed severe damage to sluice gates and the destruction of the lined portion of the canal
ur

located in the northeastern region of Zone A. However, erosion or scour was not apparent where
Jo

the canal sidewalls collapsed, implying that water carried by the canal drained through another

breach that occurred upstream at the Jono Oge flowslide and/or through a secondary irrigation

canal at the southeastern margin of the flowslide footprint.

The flowslide carried many of the surficial materials and rafted crust deposits in Zone C

several hundred meters. Zone C included north-south oriented compression ridges, uplifted

ground, and stacked and overridden surface soil blocks. The surficial features were highly

distorted, having been rotated, tilted, sheared, and fragmented during movement. Disintegrated

22
 Journal Pre-proof

soil blocks and mounds, as well as soil blocks reinforced by the root mass of low-lying

vegetation and coconut trees, were left in the wake of sliding soil blocks towards the eastern

extent of Zone C. Fluidized deposits originating in Zone B tore buildings from their foundations

and carried them downslope. Across the western margin of the flowslide, buildings were uplifted

several meters along compression ridges. Debris also inundated densely populated

neighborhoods adjacent to the flowslide footprint. At the distal edges of Zone C, debris flowed

through streets, which penetrated walls, doors, and windows of buildings (see photograph of

of
Zone C in Figure 9). At the time of our reconnaissance, residents had abandoned most of the

ro
undamaged or partially damaged buildings below or adjacent to Zone C. The termination of both

-p
legs of the flowslide appears to have been driven partly by a flattening of the topography
re
downslope.
lP

3.1.3 Jono Oge Flowslide

na

The Jono Oge flowslide occurred in an agricultural region with a modest population density;
ur

however, its large footprint, and especially the ensuing debris flood, affected many people
Jo

downslope. The flowslide destroyed a major thoroughfare for Central Sulawesi, significantly

impacting travel and economic recovery in the region. Figures 10 and 11 show the UAV-based

digital surface models and post-earthquake satellite imagery for the Jono Oge flowslide,

respectively. Figure 12 shows relevant photographs of the Jono Oge flowslide taken during our

field reconnaissance – the locations of the photographs are demarcated on Figure 11.

The same prominent morphological features observed in Zone A of the Petobo flowslide

were observed in Zone A of the Jono Oge flowslide (compare, for instance, Figures 7 and 10).

The prominent morphological features include laterally extended and back-rotated soil blocks as

23
 Journal Pre-proof

well as large tension cracks in the canal that collapsed a large sluice gate. The soil blocks

become increasingly fragmented downslope, reflecting their longer travel distance. The most

distinct difference between Petobo and Jono Oge was the consequence of the headscarp

intersecting the canal; i.e., at the southeastern margin of the Jono Oge flowslide footprint, a

major breach triggered the rapid and catastrophic release of water downslope. The flow velocity

near the breach was high, scouring a channel that was approximately 4 to 5 m deep in the

southeastern corner of the flowslide footprint (see photograph for Zone A in Figure 12). The

of
water transitioned into a debris flood that scoured the flowslide and ravaged a downslope village

ro
before reaching the Palu River approximately 6 km away (Figure 1 shows the boundaries of the

-p
Jono Oge debris flood). An eyewitness reported that the debris flood continued for about three
re
hours after the earthquake. The debris flood completely eroded or significantly altered many of

the morphological features within its path. A small west-flowing river adjacent to the northern
lP

margin of Zone A (demarcated in Figure 10), which was redirected into the flowslide footprint,
na

conveyed water that likely contributed to flooding and greater erosion in this region of Zone A as

well.
ur
Jo

24
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
-p
re
Figure 10. Shaded relief map for Jono Oge showing the topography after the flowslide
occurred. The pre-earthquake location of the irrigation canal is shown as a blue line, while
lP

the geomorphologic zones are shown with red lines. Locations of the canal breach and the
corresponding scour channel are highlighted. An area of non-displaced, but damaged
buildings was located along the eastern edge of the flowslide (photo in Figure 12a). The
na

vertical scale in this perspective view has been exaggerated by a factor of 2.5 and tall
vegetation has been manually removed to show the surface detail. The inset diagram shows
the post-earthquake elevations along the section D-D’.
ur
Jo

25
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
-p
re
lP

Figure 11. Post-earthquake imagery of the Jono Oge flowslide showing the locations of the
flowslide boundary, debris flood deposits, canal breach, geomorphologic zones, and
na

locations of mapped sand boils. Displacement vectors are shown with the tail at the original
location and head at the final location of the mapped structure. The color of the vector
indicates the magnitude of displacement. Locations of photos in Figure 12 are also shown.
ur
Jo

26
 Journal Pre-proof

of
(a) (b)

ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur

(c) (d)

Figure 12. Post-earthquake field reconnaissance photographs of the Jono Oge flowslide.
Jo

Locations of the photographs are shown in Figure 11.

Soil blocks within Zone B were generally small and largely disintegrated due to flowslide

movements and subsequent flooding. Sand boils and fine sand ejecta, indicating soil liquefaction,

were preserved in Zone B in lower-lying areas of degradation between the rafted soil blocks;

however, flooding likely eroded evidence of other sand boils at many locations throughout Zone

B. Buildings initially located in Zone B rafted atop liquefied sediment on a "mat" of relatively

intact soil crust. In some instances, roots embedded in the crust caused trees to remain upright

27
 Journal Pre-proof

and in approximately the same locations relative to adjacent buildings as the flowslide

progressed. Interestingly, one building with a heavily reinforced foundation at the center of Zone

B did not move. Debris marks on the side of the building indicate that the thickness of the

flowslide debris was approximately 2.5 m.

The flowslide movements in Zone C appear to have been arrested by a rise in the

topography, and possibly, by the accumulation of debris that buttressed and redirected movement

where the flowslide footprint bends. Below the flowslide footprint, highly fluidized deposits

of
from the debris flood were ultimately carried downslope by the small river, where it encountered

ro
channel constrictions and flooded several downstream villages before eventually emptying into

-p
the Palu River. Debris flood deposits, as great as one-meter deep, flowed through the nearest
re
village west of the Jono Oge flowslide footprint. The debris flood significantly contributed to the

population affected by this flowslide (Table 2).

lP

3.2 Eyewitness accounts

na

We interviewed over 30 eyewitnesses who directly observed the initiation and/or progression of
ur

the flowslides from vantage points both outside (and generally above) or within the flowslides'
Jo

footprints. Many observers only witnessed a portion of each flowslide given their large sizes.

The eyewitness accounts were recorded independently, but they were remarkably consistent and

provided considerable detail on the timing, sequencing, and progression of the flowslides. The

eyewitness accounts corroborate other sources of information about the flowslide, which include:

(1) good quality, smartphone video footage of two flowslides (Jono Oge and Lolu Village)

acquired from Indonesian social media; (2) pre-earthquake and post-earthquake satellite imagery;

(3) UAV-derived images and digital surface models; and (4) our direct observations made during

28
 Journal Pre-proof

the field reconnaissance. We briefly summarize important eyewitness accounts that have not

appeared in other parts of the narrative here. Mason et al. (2019) provide a detailed account of

the eyewitness descriptions for each flowslide.

Eyewitnesses generally described the earthquake shaking as an initial period of intense

horizontal ground motion, followed by a brief quiescence with no shaking, and then ending with

a period of violent vertical ground motion, including a notable vertical "drop" at the conclusion

of shaking. Several eyewitnesses also provided a visual description of the ground motion

of
sequence by first moving their hands sideways followed by a vertical bouncing motion to

ro
visually articulate the transition to vertical ground motion, and then a rapid downward movement

-p
with both hands to describe a final pronounced vertical drop.
re
A key observation made by all of the eyewitnesses was that flowsliding did not initiate

until after the strong ground motion had subsided. Eyewitnesses estimated that large ground
lP

deformations began minutes after earthquake shaking ended. Smartphone video recorded during
na

the earthquake shows the initiation of the Jono Oge flowslide

(https://www.facebook.com/slamet.moeljono.75/videos/vb.100025552757715/24330905319751
ur

8; accessed 1 April 2019). At the outset of the video, the onlooker is located across the street in
Jo

front of the original location of the "Patra Poultry Shop" (Lat: -0.98424, Long: 119.91858). At

the beginning of the video, which starts soon after shaking ends, ground cracks mar the street.

Shortly into the recording, the onlooker begins running while screams can be heard along with

loud cracking and popping sounds, which likely marks the initiation of the flowslide.

The most extraordinary eyewitness accounts came from individuals who were within the

Jono Oge flowslide footprint as it flowed downslope as if "on a raft," which was reportedly held

together by root masses. The eyewitnesses reported that water (possibly the debris flood) flowed

29
 Journal Pre-proof

through the flowslide for about three hours after the sliding stopped. Smartphone video

substantiates parts of the foregoing eyewitness account (https://youtu.be/c4sZlz8GuMI; accessed

1 April 2019). The onlooker recorded the video while standing on the roof of a building moving

over flowing ground. Large blocks of intact soil and vegetation can be seen around the building.

The relatively small size of the Lolu Village flowslide allowed more complete eyewitness

accounts of the ground movement patterns. Two eyewitnesses watched events unfold from the

upper portion of the flowslide. A third eyewitness provided a detailed account from the toe and

of
was able to describe the general progression of movements of the sheared housing complex

ro
(Figure 11). They recall the housing complex first moving uniformly before the southern half of

-p
the complex sheared. Eyewitnesses upslope in Zone LV-A described a mosque and the
re
underlying ground rotating, followed by "rolling" ground, which we interpret as possible surface

waves. They also reported that ground cracks opened and closed cyclically during the
lP

earthquake. This account is consistent with the cracking observed in the immediate area. An
na

eyewitness account from the top of the Lolu Village flowslide also reported seeing the formation

of ground cracks followed by lateral extension of the main road – an observation consistent with
ur

the observed condition of the road during our reconnaissance and a video recording taken in
Jo

front of the gas station (https://twitter.com/i/status/1049533431699234816; accessed 1 April

2019).

4. Petobo flowslide analyses

To better understand the relative influence of the unlined canal and associated saturation

of the gently sloping alluvial fan deposits near Petobo, geomechanical analyses were performed

using the finite difference code FLAC 2D version 8.0 (Itasca 2016). The analyses were

30
 Journal Pre-proof

conducted using the cross-section shown in Figure 8. The pre-earthquake topography was

derived from the Indonesian national DEM (DEMNAS). Surface asperities due to vegetation and

structures (Figure 2) were filtered out by extracting the minimum elevation from an area 10 m

long (parallel to the cross-section) and 100 m wide (perpendicular to the cross-section). The

resulting ground surface for the FLAC analyses is shown in Figure 14a.

The subsurface layering and material parameters were characterized from CPT soundings

shown in Figure 13. To respect the bereaved, the CPT soundings were performed adjacent to the

of
Petobo flowslide footprint (locations shown in Figure 8). Figure 2 shows that the area just north

ro
of Petobo is well within the same alluvial fan, so we believe the CPT soundings are likely

-p
representative of the pre-earthquake stratigraphy within the Petobo flowslide footprint. Lateral
re
variability is expected within an alluvial fan, but we speculate that the canal lining change is

primarily responsible for the flowslide area not extending further north; i.e., towards the
lP

locations of the CPT soundings.

na

Figure 13 shows the CPT tip resistance (qc) and the Ic-based soil behavior type index

(SBTn) (Robertson, 2009), which is correlated with soil classification and material type. All
ur

soundings were performed using a standard cone with a 10 cm2 cross-sectional area from 11
Jo

November 2018 to 9 December 2018. CPT sounding A7 indicates that a relatively thick

(approximately 5 m) layer of loose interbedded sands, silty sands, and silts with qc values less

than 5 MPa underlie Zone B (highlighted with a dashed box in Figure 13). We speculate that this

layer liquefied and initiated flowsliding based on (1) the low values of qc, (2) similarity of

correlated SBT description and sand boil ejecta observed in the field within all flowslide

footprints, and (3) the inferred failure surface based on the flowslide morphology of Zone B

coincides with the elevation range for the layer. Other sublayers with low qc values exist deeper

31
 Journal Pre-proof

in the soil profile, but their corresponding Ic values suggest that they are primarily clay-like

materials that would not be expected to liquefy. The same layer is thinner downslope in CPT

sounding A8, which was performed adjacent to Zone C in the runout zone. The liquefiable layer

was not observed in CPT sounding A2 at the toe. CPT sounding A6 indicates the liquefiable

layer is also thinner upslope of CPT sounding A7 near the transition from Zone B to Zone A and

was not identified further upslope in CPT sounding A5. For all locations where the liquefiable

layer was identified, the base of the liquefiable layer was underlain by deposits of clay

of
interbedded with silt and sand. Material overlying the liquefiable layer was comprised of a

ro
greater percentage of coarse-grained material (sand and gravel) interbedded with seams of silt

and clay.
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

Figure 13. Post-earthquake CPT tip resistance (qc) profiles from Petobo (locations shown in
Figure 8). The background colors illustrate the soil behavior type (SBT n) based on
Robertson (2009). The potentially liquefiable layer is highlighted with purple dashed boxes.

32
 Journal Pre-proof

of
ro
-p
re
lP

Figure 14. (a) Selected stratigraphy for the geomechanical analyses based on cross-section
C-C’ (Figure 8) and CPT results (Figure 13); (b) shear strain contours computed during
the post-earthquake stability analysis using a residual strength ration (su,res/σ′vc) of 0.04 and
na

a pre-earthquake water table at the ground surface. The simulation was halted due to
excessive mesh distortion and a large portion of the model was still moving (outlined with a
ur

dashed line).
Jo

Based on cone penetration testing (CPT) soundings, we developed the simplified

stratigraphy shown in Figure 14a, which consists of three layers: (1) an overburden layer, (2) a

liquefiable layer primarily underlying Zone B, and (3) a base layer. The stratigraphy was

interpreted based on the elevation of the soundings, not depth, so the assumed thickness of the

overburden layer varied across the flowslide footprint with changes in topography. The profile

was used to develop the numerical mesh, which had 10,291 elements with an average height of

33
 Journal Pre-proof

1.9 m. During the analysis, the displacement degrees-of-freedom were fixed in both directions

along the base of the model and in the horizontal direction along the sides.

The geomechanical analyses were conducted in two stages. During the first stage of the

analysis, we established pre-earthquake geostatic effective stress conditions (i.e., the gravity

loading or "static" stage) using drained effective stress soil properties. During the second stage,

we performed post-earthquake stability analyses. The effects of earthquake shaking were not

directly modeled; instead, we modeled the effects of earthquake-induced liquefaction by

of
applying an empirically-based liquefied residual strength (su,res) to the liquefiable layer, which is

ro
intended to account for the effects of strength loss due to liquefaction (Idriss and Boulanger,

-p
2008). The foregoing analysis is commonly used in dam engineering to examine the potential for
re
liquefaction-induced flowslides (e.g., Boulanger et al., 2015). Moreover, we consider our

analysis approach reasonable for gauging whether liquefaction-induced strength loss could
lP

explain the initiation of the Petobo flowslide for two reasons: first, the substantial evidence
na

indicating that liquefaction occurred at Petobo (and other flowslide locations), and second, all of

the eyewitnesses stated that the flowslides initiated after shaking had subsided. Post-liquefaction
ur

undrained residual strengths were applied to the zones of the liquefiable soil layer that were
Jo

below the water table. Peak drained strengths were applied to soil layers above the water table,

because partial saturation significantly suppresses excess pore pressure generation and increases

liquefaction resistance in loose soil deposits (Sherif et al., 1977; Yoshimi et al., 1989; Grozic et

al., 1999; Grozic et al., 2000; Tsukamoto et al., 2002; Okamura and Soga, 2006).

The influence of groundwater infiltration from the unlined canal was considered by

examining four groundwater table depths (0, 1, 3, and 6 m below the ground surface). Reports of

pre-earthquake artesian pressures in residential water wells corroborate the highest groundwater

34
 Journal Pre-proof

table assumption. The lower groundwater table assumptions allowed us to examine stability of

the slope at Petobo with the diminishing influence of the canal and irrigation. Residents near

Petobo noted an estimated 10 m drop in some residential water wells in the months following the

earthquake. We speculate that the lack of recharge from the abandoned canal and formerly

irrigated rice fields is responsible for the drop in well water levels.

Table 4 summarizes the parameters for the Mohr-Coulomb soil model for the overburden

material, liquefiable layer, and base layer used in the geomechanical analyses. Drained strength

of
parameters and stiffnesses were interpreted from CPT soundings (Robertson, 2009). The

ro
interpreted drained friction angles far exceed the slope of the ground, so the profile was stable

-p
under static conditions, as expected. The post-liquefaction residual strengths were also derived
re
from measured qc values from the CPT soundings based on two empirical correlations

(Boulanger and Idriss, 2015; Kramer and Wang, 2015). Given its proximity to the central portion
lP

of Zone B, where the liquefiable layer was thickest, CPT sounding A7 was most heavily relied
na

on to develop su,res. The CPT results were processed using the procedures suggested by

Boulanger and Idriss (2015) to obtain an equivalent clean sand tip resistance and equivalent
ur

clean sand SPT blow counts were calculated using the correlations presented by Idriss and
Jo

Boulanger (2008). The median residual strength ratio (su,res/σ′vc; where σ′vc is the pre-earthquake

vertical effective stress) estimated from Idriss and Boulanger (2008) and Kramer and Wang

(2015) was approximately 0.04. However, we tested su,res/σ′vc, ranging from 0.01 to 0.10. The

su,res applied to the liquefiable layer during the second analysis stage was calculated by

multiplying the selected strength ratio by σ′vc established from geostatic stress analysis in the first

stage and the water table depth.

35
 Journal Pre-proof

Table 4. Summary of constitutive soil parameters used in geomechanical analyses. Effective

stress (drained) strength parameters used for static conditions in stage 1 of analyses and
correlated from CPT data (Robertson 2009). Normalized post-liquefaction residual shear
strengths applied to the liquefiable layer in stage 2 of analyses are derived from CPT data
and based on (Idriss and Boulanger, 2008; Kramer and Wang, 2015).

Constitutive Soil Parameters (Mohr-Coulomb Model) for each Layer

Parameter Overburden Liquefiable Base

𝜙′ (°) 38 32 34
G (MPa) 14 21 40

of
𝜈 0.2 0.2 0.2
su,res/σ′vc

ro
- 0.01 to 0.1 -

-p
Results from the post-earthquake stability analysis stage with the water table at the
re
ground surface and su,res/σ′vc = 0.04 (median value based on CPT A7) are shown in Figure 14b.

Figure 14b shows the accumulated shear strain at the time the simulation was halted due to
lP

excessive mesh deformation. At the time the simulation was halted, a large portion of the mesh
na

was still unstable and moving with a significant velocity. We defined a velocity threshold to

identify the boundaries of the unstable region by examining a histogram of nodal velocities at the
ur

end of the simulation. The nodal velocity distribution was bimodal, with one group of nodal
Jo

velocities that were similar to the velocities at the end of the static phase and another group

where the velocities were at least four orders of magnitude higher than the maximum velocity at

the end of the static phase, indicating instability. The unstable region defined using the foregoing

velocity threshold starts near the Zone A/B transition (Figure 14b) and extends through the upper

half of Zone B (approximately 400 m in length). Based on field observations, this coincides with

the general location where we inferred the flowslide initiated and then retrogressively failed

upslope due to loss of confinement. The near vertical slip surface at the Zone A/B transition is

36
 Journal Pre-proof

also consistent with lateral spreading associated with scarp development and observed back-

rotated soil blocks (Figure 7). Significant shear strains (>15%) also accumulated further

downslope in the unstable region but were smaller in magnitude than the upper portion. Had the

simulation continued, we expect that failed material in the upper region of Zone B would have

loaded and further destabilized the lower regions of Zone B. The preceding speculation is also

consistent with our field observations: many of the structures in the lower portion of Zone B

remained relatively intact and appear to have rafted on a destabilized crust (allowing them to be

of
identified on post-earthquake imagery in Figure 8), and the greatest amount of geomorphic

ro
destruction was observed in the upper portion of Zone B. Our analyses did not predict significant

-p
shear strains in Zone C (despite the liquefiable layer extending several hundred meters into Zone

C), indicating that Zone C would be stable without a change in loading – an observation that
re
helps explain why only modest displacements were observed outside of the flowslide areas at
lP

lower elevations in the alluvial fan. A limitation of continuum-based analyses is the inability to
na

assess the progression and to predict final displacements (i.e., continued retrogressive failure

upslope and runout), which was hundreds of meters in some instances. However, the preceding
ur

discussion has highlighted some remarkable consistencies between the predicted region of initial
Jo

instability and patterns of shear strain development and the geomorphic expressions observed in

the field.

To assess the effects of the residual strength and the pre-earthquake groundwater table on

flowslide stability, the simulation described above was repeated using the range of su,res/σ′vc

values from Table 4 and water table depths of 0 m (at the ground surface), 1 m, 3 m and 6 m.

Figure 15 shows the length of the unstable region (defined using the velocity threshold described

previously) for each combination of parameters. Simulations that achieved equilibrium had an

37
 Journal Pre-proof

unstable length of 0 m. The results shown in Figure 15 fall into three general bins. For very low

strengths, the entire length of Zone B becomes unstable (approximately 1 km). We expect that

destabilizing the entire length of Zone B would have led to runout distances that were much

larger than our observations. For shallow water table depths and residual strengths consistent

with the empirical correlations (su,res/σ′vc = 0.03 to 0.05), the length of the unstable region is

similar to Figure 13b. For deeper water tables or higher strengths, the slope is stable. Notably,

when the water table is at a depth of 6 m, still higher than water levels reported after the

of
earthquake, the entire slope is stable for su,res/σ′vc as low as 0.01. Figure 15 demonstrates that the

ro
pre-earthquake shallow water table that existed due to irrigation and artificial recharge from the

-p
unlined canal contributed to the requisite conditions for liquefaction and development of
re
associated post-earthquake residual shear strengths that led to the observed flowslide.
lP
na
ur
Jo

Figure 15. Length of the unstable region from geomechanical analyses as a function of the
assumed depth of the water table and residual undrained shear strength ratio in the
liquefiable layer.

38
 Journal Pre-proof

5. Discussion

Based on our field reconnaissance, subsurface investigation, and geomechanical analyses, we

have developed a hypothesized explanation of the East Palu Valley flowslides' initiations and

sequencings. The failure sequence for all flowslide locations began when the earthquake ground

motion raised pore water pressures in the saturated layer of loose fine sands interbedded with

of
silts and silty sands; i.e., alluvial sediments. Ultimately, the elevated pore water pressures

ro
initiated liquefaction. The high excess pore pressures within the liquefied layers created large

-p
hydraulic gradients, which drove groundwater flow towards the ground surface. The upward

groundwater seepage led to vent and sand boil formation above the preferential flow paths; i.e.,
re
"water escape structures" (Lowe, 1975). The upward seepage also led to a redistribution of
lP

stresses and accumulation of shear strains within the soil mass. At some point shortly after the

earthquake, the gravitational driving stresses exceeded the residual strength of the liquefied soil,
na

triggering the onset of the flowslide. When downslope movement initiated in the upper reaches
ur

of Zone B, generally between elevations of 50 and 70 m (see Figure 2), the slope started
Jo

"retrogressively" failing upslope towards Zone A.

The retrogressive failure stopped near the irrigation canal at all three flowslides. At

Petobo and Jono Oge, the canal walls collapsed due to loss of confinement. Around the same

time, the down-dropped and back-rotated soil blocks in Zone A at Petobo and Jono Oge started

rafting downslope atop the liquefied or nearly liquefied soils. At Lolu Village, lateral spreading

was less severe and grabben-like drops and ridges formed in Zone A. At Jono Oge, a breach of

the canal resulted in massive flooding, which rapidly eroded soil and became a debris flood that

39
 Journal Pre-proof

devastated villages approximately 1 km to 6 km downslope of the headscarp. Soil and other

debris, predominantly from Zone B, flowed into the runout zone (Zone C) at all three flowslide

locations.

Several important points related to the hypothesized flowslide sequence are worth noting.

First, earthquake-induced liquefaction played the key role in initiating the flowslides. Field

evidence of liquefaction is abundant and includes: (1) numerous sand boils found throughout the

upper zones of the flowslides, (2) independent and consistent eyewitness accounts of

of
liquefaction-related phenomena at all three flowslide sites, (3) low-energy depositional

ro
environments (alluvial fan and alluvial plain deposits) that provide a strong geologic context for

-p
liquefaction throughout the East Palu Valley, and (4) cone penetration test soundings that clearly
re
indicate liquefaction-prone soils were present. The preceding four points, in combination with

estimated ground motions and geomechanical analyses, strongly support the conclusion that
lP

liquefaction occurred at the three flowslides, and especially in Zone B.

na

Second, anthropogenic modification of the landscape played a critical role in the

initiation of the flowslides – perhaps most notably, the construction and operation of an unlined
ur

irrigation canal. Mason et al. (2019) speculated that the irrigation canal played a large role in the
Jo

slope failures based on post-earthquake reconnaissance activities. Bradley et al. (2019) and

Watkinson and Hall (2019) subsequently arrived at the same conclusion based on comprehensive

analysis of post-earthquake satellite imagery. More specifically, Bradley et al. (2019) examined

land use throughout the East Palu Valley and found that the flowslides occurred predominantly

on irrigated agricultural land with little forest – a result corroborated with our field observations.

Based on our analyses, we believe that seepage from the canal increased the height of the water

table, and accordingly, fully saturated the underlying loose soil layers—thus making them

40
 Journal Pre-proof

liquefaction-prone. The high groundwater table also reduced the pre-earthquake effective stress,

which ultimately reduced the residual strength of the liquefiable layer. Without the influence of

the canal, some movement may still be expected due to strong shaking and lateral spreading, but

the magnitude of potential lateral spreading displacements would have been on the order of

meters (Idriss and Boulanger, 2008), rather than the many hundreds of meters observed within

the alluvial fans throughout the East Palu Valley. Notably, another flowslide occurred on the

west side of the Palu Valley at Balaroa and was not directly associated with the irrigation canal.

of
The toe of the Balaroa flowslide was located near sea level in a coastal swamp, the fault rupture

ro
went through the toe of the flowslide, and the slope angle was steeper than the slope angles of

-p
the east Palu Valley flowslides. Eyewitness accounts at Balaroa state that significant strength
re
loss occurred near the toe of the Balaroa flowslide first, and then the flowslide progressed up the

slope. The foregoing observations lead us to the conclusion that the failure mechanism at Balaroa
lP

was different than the East Palu Valley flowslides; however, most of the field data were
na

destroyed by recovery efforts before our reconnaissance efforts began.

Third, the flowslides were not coseismic, but rather occurred a short time (estimated to be
ur

two to three minutes) after earthquake shaking ended. Multiple eyewitnesses unanimously
Jo

support the foregoing point and amateur video footage provides further support. The delayed

flowslide initiation gives credence to additional explanations for the destabilization of the slopes,

including progressive failure mechanisms and/or pore pressure diffusion leading to strength loss

through void redistribution (e.g., Boulanger and Truman, 1996; Kokusho, 2003; Malvick et al.,

2006). Progressive failure mechanisms may have contributed to the flowslide delay if zones

around the initial failure (Zone B) had sufficient strength to remain stable but changes in loading

as Zone B began to displace led to the entire mass failing. The failure patterns shown in Figure

41
 Journal Pre-proof

14b demonstrate that progressive failure (initiating in the upper part of Zone B) could have

contributed to the final configuration of the flowslide. Void redistribution occurs when diffusion

of excess pore pressure within the liquefied soil leads to loosening and strength loss at the

interface between the liquefied soil layers and a fine-grained "impervious" capping layer

(observed in the East Palu Valley alluvial deposits). Delayed failure due to void redistribution

has been observed in centrifuge tests (e.g., Malvick et al., 2006) and has been hypothesized as a

likely mechanism in several case histories (Idriss and Boulanger, 2008). Our analyses did not

of
explicitly account for void redistribution, but the correlations for residual strength have been

ro
back-calculated from case histories that implicitly include some of these field scale effects to the

-p
extent they affected the case histories (Idriss and Boulanger, 2008).
re
Finally, the flowslide initiation locations have some commonalities, which is most clearly

shown in Figure 2. The three flowslides occurred near the intersection of young alluvial fans and
lP

the alluvial plain of Palu Valley. The gently sloping ground near the aforementioned intersection
na

had an average grade between 2% and 4% although flowslides appear to have initiated where

relief was greater locally (approximately 4% to 6%). The geomechanical analyses confirmed that
ur

the "steeper" regions would be susceptible to instability while the flatter regions would not, even
Jo

at very low residual strengths. The flowslide locations also coincide with an elevation of 50 to 70

m (Figure 2), which is the same elevation band where we observed the greatest deformations

outside the flowslides' footprints (Figure 3). Similarities between the incident elevation and large

deformations may suggest similarities in the depositional environment contributed to the location

where the landslides initiated. The size of the flowslides is more closely correlated with the

extent of continued relief beyond the region where the landslides initiated. All flowslides

terminated in areas with little to no relief, or in localized regions near the margin of the flowslide

42
 Journal Pre-proof

footprint where topography briefly ascended, impeding flow and continued progression of the

flowslide downhill. Notably, we speculate that the other alluvial fans in the East Palu Valley

shown in Figure 2 are either located on too flat of a slope or are located near the mountainous

region away from the influence of the irrigation canal for flowsliding to be an issue.

Notwithstanding the preceding speculative points, we are puzzled why catastrophic

flowslides, aside from Sibalaya located 35 km south of Palu City (Gallant et al., 2020), did not

occur in other well-irrigated parts of the East Palu Valley. Performing additional fieldwork at

of
sites in the East Palu Valley that moved only incrementally may yield additional insights.

ro
Differences in stratigraphy across the basin, which may make diffusion of excess pore pressures

-p
and subsequent development of water films less likely, may offer a possible explanation. As an
re
example, we speculate that impermeable soil layers are shallower at Lolu Village than the other

two flowslides (though we do not have subsurface soil information at Lolu Village to support our
lP

speculation). Further investigations are important for developing design considerations for future
na

irrigation systems along hillslopes in seismically active areas.

ur

6. Conclusions
Jo

We performed post-earthquake reconnaissance of three large flowslides initiated by the Mw 7.5

Palu-Donggala Indonesia earthquake. The flowslides mainly lie in the alluvial plain near the

distal edge of young alluvial fan units. We field mapped the flowslide morphology, piloted

unmanned aerial vehicle flights to create orthomosaic images and digital surface models,

measured the displacement of buildings to quantify the magnitude of ground movements,

performed post-earthquake cone penetration tests to evaluate the subsurface conditions, and

interviewed eyewitness to better understand the flowslides' progressions. In addition, we

43
 Journal Pre-proof

performed detailed geomechanical analyses to determine the post-liquefaction residual soil

strength required for slope stability to occur under varying groundwater conditions. Our post-

earthquake reconnaissance activities, field-testing, and geomechanical analyses led us to develop

a hypothesized mechanism that explains the flowslides' initiations and sequencings. There are

four key findings of our research.

 We have compelling field evidence and eyewitness accounts to conclude that soil

liquefaction initiated flowslide movement.

of
 The unlined canal bounding the eastern boundary of the flowslides raised the ground

ro
water table in the alluvial sediments. The elevated ground water table fully saturated the

-p
liquefaction-prone soils, which exacerbated the liquefaction hazard in the East Palu
re
Valley. The canal was abandoned after the earthquake, and in consequence, the water

level in wells around the region have dropped precipitously. Accordingly, we find that
lP

the flowslides would not have been as large (or have even developed) without the canal.
na

 Eyewitness accounts and citizen video footage indicate that the flowslides initiated after

the cessation of earthquake shaking. Our geomechanical analyses and field observations
ur

indicate that the failures began in the upper area of the flowslide, which we refer to as
Jo

Zone B, and then retrogressively failed back to the canal. The delayed timing, along with

the layered stratigraphy interpreted from the cone penetration testing, suggests that pore

pressure diffusion and subsequent void redistribution may have had an important

influence on the flowslides' timing.

 All three flowslides initiated between an elevation range of 50 to 70 m in locally steeper

terrain with average slopes between 4% and 6%. We speculate that the subsurface

stratigraphy within the 50 to 70 m elevation range is consistent for all three flowslides,

44
 Journal Pre-proof

because the upper reaches of the three east valley flowslides are located at or close to the

distal edge of young alluvial fans.

Our findings have implications for other earthquake-prone regions worldwide. First, in

regions dominated by agricultural land use, the irrigation systems need to be carefully designed

to decrease the likelihood of sustained high-water tables. Notwithstanding the threat of seismic-

induced slope instability, the high ground water tables also increase the overall chances of slope

instability, and especially in steeper terrain. In these regions, the agricultural and economic

of
necessities must be balanced with the risk of ground failure and the subsequent consequences.

ro
Second, we note that significant lateral spreading occurred on relatively shallow slopes without

-p
free faces. Accordingly, our field observations can help strengthen the lateral spreading
re
databases, which do not contain too many similar events, used to create and update empirical and

analytical lateral spreading prediction methods.

lP

Acknowledgments
na

The work of the GEER Association is based upon work supported in part by the National Science Foundation
through the Geotechnical Engineering Program under Grant No. CMMI-1826118. Reconnaissance mission field
support was provided by the Natural Hazards Reconnaissance Facility (known as the "RAPID") under NSF Grant
ur

No. CMMI-1611820. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are
those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF. We have many individuals to thank for
helping our reconnaissance effort — a more thorough list is given in Mason et al. (2019). Professor Sam McColl of
Jo

Massey University provided many thoughtful review comments that helped us improve this research.

References
AHA, 2018. Situation Update No. 15-Final: M7.4 Earthquake & Tsunami, Sulawesi, Indonesia Report. ASEAN
Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA),
https://reliefweb.int/report/indonesia/aha-centre-situation-update-no-15-final-m-74-earthquake-and-tsunami-
sulawesi.
Bao, H., Ampuero, J.-P., Meng, L., Fielding, E. J., Liang, C., Milliner, C. W., Feng, T., Huang, H., 2019. Early and
persistent supershear rupture of the 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu earthquake. Nature Geoscience 12(3), 200–205.
Beaudouin, T., 1998. Tectonique activeet sismotectonique du systeme de failles decrochantes de Sulawesi Central.
Unpubl. doctoral dissertation, Universite Paris-Sud.
Bellier, O., Bourles, D.L., Beaudouin, T., Braucher, R., 1999. Cosmic Ray Exposure (CRE) dating in a wet tropical
domain: late Quaternary fan emplacements in central Sulawesi (Indonesia). Terra Nova 11 (4), 174-180.
Bellier, O., Sébrier, M., Beaudouin, T., Villeneuve, M. Braucher, R., Bourlès, D., Siame, L., Putranto, E., Pratomo,
I.. 2001. High slip rate for a low seismicity along the Palu-Koro active fault in central Sulawesi (Indonesia).
Terra Nova 13 (6), 0954-4879.

45
 Journal Pre-proof

Bellier, O., Sébrier, M., Seward, D., Beaudouin, T., Villeneuve, M., Putranto, E., 2006. Fission track and fault
kinematics analyses for new insight into the Late Cenozoic tectonic regime changes in West-Central Sulawesi
(Indonesia). Tectonophysics 413 (3–4), 201-220.
Boulanger R.W., Idriss I., 2015. CPT-based liquefaction triggering procedure. Journal of Geotechnical and
Geoenvironmental Engineering 142(2), 1–11.
Boulanger, R.W., Truman, S.P., 1996. Void redistribution in sand under post-earthquake loading. Canadian
Geotechnical Journal 33(5), 829-834.
Boulanger, R.W., Montgomery, J., Ziotopoulou, K., 2015. Ch. 10: Nonlinear deformation analyses of liquefaction
effects on embankment dams. In Atilla Ansal & Mohamed Sakr, (Eds.), Perspectives on Earthquake
Geotechnical Engineering. Springer Publishing, Switzerland.
Bradley, K., Mallick, R., Andikagumi, H., Hubbard, J., Meilianda, E., Switzer, A., Du, N., Brocard, G., Alfian, D.,
Benazir, B., et al., 2019. Earthquake-triggered 2018 Palu valley landslides enabled by wet rice cultivation.
Nature Geoscience 12(11), 935–939.
Digital Globe, 2018. Open Data Program: Indonesian Earthquake and Tsunami.
https://www.digitalglobe.com/ecosystem/open-data/indonesia-earthquake-tsunami, last accessed March 19,
2019.

of
Gallant, A.P., Montgomery, J., Mason, H.B., Hutabarat, D., Reed, A.N., Wartman, J., Irsyam, M., Simatupang, P.T.,
Alatas, I.M., Prakoso, W.A., Djarwadi, D., Hanifa, R., Rahardjo, P., Faizal, L., Harnanto, D.S., Kawanda, A.,
Himawan, A., Yasin, W., 2020. The Sibalaya Flowslide initiated by the 28 September 2018 M W 7.5 Palu-

ro
Donggala, Indonesia earthquake. Landslides, doi: 10.1007/s10346-020-01354-1.
Grozic, J.L., Robertson, P., Morgenstern, N., 1999. The behavior of loose gassy sand. Canadian Geotechnical
Journal 36(3), 482–492.

-p
Grozic, J.L., Robertson, P., Morgenstern, N., 2000. Cyclic liquefaction of loose gassy sand. Canadian Geotechnical
Journal 37(4), 843–856.
re
Hidayat, R.F., Kiyota, T., Tada, N., Hayakawa, J., Nawir, H., 2020. Reconnaissance on Liquefaction-induced Flow
Failure Caused by the 2018 Mw 7.5 Sulawesi Earthquake, Palu, Indonesia. Journal of Engineering &
Technological Sciences 52(1).
lP

Hungr, O., Leroueil, S., Picarelli, L., 2014. The Varnes classification of landslide types, an update. Landslides 11(2),
167–194.
Idriss, I.M., Boulanger, R.W., 2008. "Soil liquefaction during earthquakes." Monograph MNO-12, Earthquake
Engineering Research Institute. Oakland, CA.
na

Itasca, 2016. FLAC, Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua, Version 8.0. Itasca Consulting Group, Minneapolis,
MN.
Indonesian Geological Agency, 2018. Geologic map of Palu basin. Geological Agency, Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources, Republic of Indonesia, Bandung, Indonesia.
ur

Indonesian Geospatial Information Agency, 2019. DEMNAS seamless digital elevation model (DEM) dan Batimetri
Nasional. http://tides.big.go.id/DEMNAS/, last accessed 09 May 2019.
Jakarta Post, 2018. Central Sulawesi quake, tsunami inflicted US$911 million in losses: Govt.
Jo

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/10/21/central-sulawesi-quake-tsunami-inflicted-us911-million-in-
losses-govt.html, last accessed April 2, 2019.
Jakarta Post, 2019. Central Sulawesi disasters killed 4,340 people, final count reveals.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/01/30/central-sulawesi-disasters-killed-4340-people-final-count-
reveals.html, last accessed April 2, 2019.
Kiyota, T., Furuichi, H., Hidayat, R., Tada, N., Nawir, H., 2020. Overview of long-distance flow-slide caused by the
2018 Sulawesi earthquake, Indonesia. Soils and Foundations 60(3), 722-735.
Kokusho, T., 2003. Current state of research on flow failure considering void redistribution in liquefied deposits.
Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 23(7):585–603
Kramer, S.L., Wang, C.H., 2015. Empirical model for estimation of the residual strength of liquefied soil. Journal of
Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering 141(9), 04015038.
Lowe, D.R., 1975. Water escape structures in coarse‐ grained sediments. Sedimentology 22(2), 157-204.
Malvick, E.J., Kutter, B.L., Boulanger, R.W., Kulasingam, R., 2006. Shear localization due to liquefaction-induced
void redistribution in a layered infinite slope. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
132(10), 1293-1303.
Mason, H.B., Gallant, A.P., Hutabarat, D., Montgomery, J., Reed, N., Wartman, J., Irsyam, M., Prakoso, W.,
Djarwadi, D., Harnanto, D., Alatas, I., Rahardjo, P., Simatupang, P., Kawanda, A., Hanifa, R., 2019. The 28

46
 Journal Pre-proof

September 2018 M7.5 Palu-Donggala, Indonesia Earthquake: Version 1.0. Geotechnical Extreme Events
Reconnaissance Association Report GEER-061, doi:10.18118/G63376
Mayne, P.W., 2014. Interpretation of geotechnical parameters from seismic piezocone tests. Proceedings, 3rd
International Symposium on Cone Penetration Testing(CPT'14, Las Vegas), ISSMGE Technical Committee TC
102, 47-73.
McGann, C.R., Bradley, B.A., Taylor, M.L., Wotherspoon, L.M., Cubrinovski, M., 2015. Development of an
empirical correlation for predicting shear wave velocity of Christchurch soils from cone penetration test data.
Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 75, 66-75.
Mikami, T., Shibayama, T., Esteban, M., Takabatake, T., Nakamura, R., Nishida, Y., Achiari, H., Marzuki, A.G.,
Marzuki, M.F.H., Stolle, J., et al., 2019. Field survey of the 2018 Sulawesi tsunami: inundation and run-up
heights and damage to coastal communities. Pure and Applied Geophysics 176(8), 3291–3304.
Miyajima, M., Setiawan, H., Yoshida, M., Ono, Y. Kosa, K. Oktaviana, I. S., ,Martini, and Irdhiani 2019.
Geotechnical damage in the 2018 Sulawesi earthquake, Indonesia. Geoenviron Disasters 6(6),
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-019-0121-0
Montgomery, J., Wartman, J., Gallant, A., Hutabarat, D., Mason, B., 2020a. Dataset for GEER Field
Reconnaissance of 2018 Palu-Donggala Earthquake and Flowslides. DesignSafe-CI,

of
https://doi.org/10.17603/ds2-q22d-bk96.
Montgomery, J., Wartman, J., Reed, A., Gallant, A., Hutabarat, D., Mason, B., 2020b. Field Reconnaissance Data

ro
from GEER Investigation of the 2018 MW 7.5 Palu-Donggala Earthquake. Data in Brief (under review). Pre-
print available from https://doi.org/10.17603/ds2-fv2y-5z03.
Nurdin, S., Harianto, T., Aswad, S., Arsyad, A., Alexsander, S., 2019. Liquefaction Disaster Mitigation and

-p
Geohydrology Conditions, Lessons from the Palu Earthquake Magnitude 7.4 Mw 28 September 2018. Proc.,
23rd Annual National Conference on Geotechnical Engineering, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Okamura, M., Soga, Y., 2006. Effects of pore fluid compressibility on liquefaction resistance of partially saturated
re
sand. Soils and Foundations 46(5), 695–700.
Omira, R., Dogan, G., Hidayat, R., Husrin, S., Prasetya, G., Annunziato, A., Proietti, C., Probst, P., Paparo, M.,
Wronna, M., et al., 2019. The September 28th, 2018, tsunami in Palu-Sulawesi, Indonesia: A post-event field
lP

survey. Pure and Applied Geophysics 176(4), 1379–1395.

Patria, A., Putra, P.S., 2020. Development of the Palu–Koro Fault in NW Palu Valley, Indonesia. Geosci. Lett. 7(1).
Paulik, R., Gusman, A., Williams, J. H., Pratama, G. M., Lin, S.-l., Prawirabhakti, A., Sulendra, K., Zachari, M. Y.,
Fortuna, Z. E. D., Layuk, N. B. P., et al., 2019. Tsunami hazard and built environment damage observations
na

from Palu city after the September 28 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami. Pure and Applied Geophysics
176(8), 3305–3321.
Robertson, I., Kijewski-Correa, T., Prevatt, D., Mosalam, K., Roueche, D., Takabatake, T., Stolle, J., Esteban, M., et
al., 2019. STEER —Palu earthquake and tsunami, Sulawesi, Indonesia: Field assessment team 1 (FAT-1) early
ur

access reconnaissance report (EARR). Report No. PRJ-2104, DesignSafe-CI, University of Texas, Austin, doi:
10.17603/DS2JD7T.
Robertson, P., 2009. Interpretation of cone penetration tests—a unified approach. Canadian Geotechnical
Jo

Journal 46(11), 1337–1355.

Rohit, D., Pasha, S.M.K., Hazarika, H., Kokusho, T., Arsyad, A., Nurdin, S., 2019. Influence of low permeability
capping layers on liquefaction induced ground failure. Proc., 16 th Asian Regional Conference on Soil
Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Taipei, Taiwan.
Sherif, M.A., Tsuchiya, C., Ishibashi, I., 1977. "Saturation effects on initial soil liquefaction." Journal of the
Geotechnical Engineering Division 103(8), 914–917.
Socquet, A., Simons, W., Vigny, C., McCaffrey, R., Subarya, C., Sarsito, D., Ambrosius, B., Spakman, W., 2006.
Microblock rotations and fault coupling in SE Asia triple junction (Sulawesi, Indonesia) from GPS and
earthquake slip vector data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 111(B8),
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB003963.
Stolle, J., Krautwald, C., Robertson, I., Achiari, H., Mikami, T., Nakamura, R., Takabatake, T., Nishida, Y.,
Shibayama, T., Esteban, M., et al., 2020. Engineering lessons from the 28 September 2018 Indonesian tsunami:
debris loading. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 47(999), 1–12.
Tjia, H.D., 1981. Example of young tectonism in Eastern Indonesia. In: Barber, A.J., Wiryosudjono, S. (Eds.), The
Geology and tectonics of Eastern Indonesia, Spec. Publ Geol. Res. and Dev. Centre, Bandung, Indonesia, vol. 2,
89–104.
Tsukamoto, Y., Ishihara, K., Nakazawa, H., Kamada, K., Huang, Y., 2002. Resistance of partly saturated sand to

47
 Journal Pre-proof

liquefaction with reference to longitudinal and shear wave velocities. Soils and Foundations 42(6), 93–104.
USGS, 2018. M 7.5 - 70km N of Palu, Indonesia,
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000h3p4/
Van Leeuwen, T., Muhardjo, M., 2005. Stratigraphy and tectonic setting of the Cretaceous and Paleogene vocanic-
sedimentary successions in northwest Sulawesi, Indonesia: implication for the Cenozoic evolution of Western
and Northern Sulawesi. J. Asian Earth Sci. 25, 481–511.
Watkinson I.M., Hall R., 2017. Fault systems of the eastern Indonesian triple junction: evaluation of Quaternary
activity and implications for seismic hazards. In: Cummins PR, Meilano I (eds) Geohazards in Indonesia: earth
science for disaster risk reduction. Geological Society of London Special Publications 441(1), 71–120.
Watkinson, I. M., Hall, R., 2019. Impact of communal irrigation on the 2018 Palu earthquake-triggered landslides.
Nature Geoscience 12(11), 940–945.
Yoshimi, Y., Tanaka, K., Tokimatsu, K., 1989. Liquefaction resistance of a partially saturated sand. Soils and
Foundations 29(3), 157-162.
Youd, T.L., Hoose, S.N., 1977. Liquefaction susceptibility and geologic setting. Proceedings, 6th World Conference
on Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 6, Indian Society of Earthquake Technology, Roorkee, India, 37–42.
Youd, T.L., Perkins, D.M., 1978. Mapping liquefaction-induced ground failure potential. Journal of the Soil

of
Mechanics and Foundations Division 104(4), 433–446.

ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

48
 Journal Pre-proof

Declaration of interests

☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships
that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be
considered as potential competing interests:

of
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

49
 Journal Pre-proof

Highlights

 Soil liquefaction initiated flowsliding following the 2018 Palu-Donggala Earthquake

 An unlined canal contributed to flowsliding by raising the ground water table

 The flowslides initiated after strong shaking stopped

 Flowslides initiated near the intersection of alluvial fans and an alluvial plain

of
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo

50