BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

DEFINITION: Suppose that an event E can

happen in h ways out of a total of n possible
equally likely ways. Then the probability of
occurrence of the event (called its success) is
denoted by:
BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

The probability of non-occurrence of the event

(called its failure) is denoted by q
 AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY
 P(E) ≥ 0 (nonnegative) OR 0 ≤ P(E ) ≤ 1

 P(S) = 1

 If A and B are such that AnB =ϕ then, P(A)uP(B) =

P(A) + P(B)

 For any sequence of mutually exclusive events E1,

E2, . . .,
 ADDITIVE AND MULTIPLICATIVE LAW OF
PROBABILITY

• If an event can have one of n possible result and the

respective probability of this result are P1,P2,P3, …, Pn
then P1 + P2 + … Pn = 1 . If P1 is probability of event A
and P2 is probability of the event B where A and B are
mutually exclusive then the general form of an addition
for the two event A and B is:
• P(AuB) = Pr (A) + Pr(B)
 ADDITIVE AND MULTIPLICATIVE LAW OF
PROBABILITY

• If they are not mutually exclusive then,

• P(AuB) = Pr (A) + Pr(B) – Pr(AnB).
• NOTE:
• 1) Additive law implies “or” and it is applicable for
• Mutually Exclusive Event and Not Mutually exclusive
event
• 2) Multiplicative law implies “and” and it is applicable for
:Independent event and Dependent event.
ADDITIVE AND MULTIPLICATIVE LAW
OF PROBABILITY

• P(AnB) = Pr (A) X Pr(B) provided A and B

are independent.

• P(AnB) = Pr (A) X Pr(B/A) provided A and B

are dependent
 EXAMPLES
1. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of tossing a head and then rolling
a 6.
2. Suppose that a dice is thrown once in an
experiment, Find the probability of the
following events. A)2 or 4 appear, b) An odd
number appear, c) A number greater than or
equal to 3
 SOLUTION
1 1
(1) Pr( Head and 6)= 𝑋 = 1/12
2 6

Pr( Head and 4)= 0.0833

1 1
(2) A Pr(2 or 4)= + = 2/6
6 6
Pr(2 or 6)= 0.3333
B The odd numbers are 1,3 and 5
1 1 1
Pr( odd numbers)= + + = 3/6
6 6 6
Pr( odd numbers)= 0.5
 EXAMPLES
3 A pack of card contains 6red cards and 8yellow cards.
A man first drawn one card and then another card
from the pack. What is the probability that the first
drawn is yellow card and the second drawn is red if :
• a) the card is returned to the pack after the first drawn
• b) the card is not returned after the first drawn.
 SOLUTION

(3A) If the card is returned before the next

draw, then it means they are independent.
8 6
Pr(first is yellow, second red)= 𝑋 =
14 14
48/196
Pr(first is yellow, second red)= 0.2449
 SOLUTION

(3B) If the card is not returned before the

next draw, then it means they are dependent.
8 6
Pr(first is yellow, second red)= 𝑋 =
14 13
48/182
Pr(first is yellow, second red)= 0.2637
 Exercise
• A box contains 5 red, 4 white and 6 blue balls.
If a ball is drawn at random from the box, find
the probability that: a) red b) white c) blue or
white d) not white e) neither red nor blue.