Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy & Buildings

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enb

Cost-effective design of energy efficiency measures in the building sector in

North Africa using Building Information Modeling
Mohamed Maaouane a, *, Mohammed Chennaif a, Smail Zouggar a, Goran Krajačić b,
Salaheddine Amrani c, Hassan Zahboune a
a
University Mohammed 1, School of Technology, Laboratory of Electrical Engineering and Maintenance (LEEM), BP: 473, 60000 Oujda, Morocco
b
University of Zagreb, Faculty for Naval Architecture and Civil Engineering, Ivana Lučića 5, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
c
University Mohammed 1, Faculty of Science, Materials Science, New Energies & Application Research Group, LPTPME Laboratory, BP: 473, 60000 Oujda, Morocco

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Using sequential search optimisation technique in conjunction with Building Information Modeling, this research
BIM considers standards and easily implemented design and operational energy efficiency measures to improve the
Revit energy performance of prototype buildings in various climatic zones throughout the North African region. This
Energy Efficiency Measures
work’s novelty lies in developing advanced, comprehensive models to propose a new code for the building sector
Life Cycle Cost
that considers different climatic zones and types of buildings already in use. In the analysis, design features of air-
Forecast
conditioned buildings are considered, including window glazing, wall construction, roof construction, degree of
building orientation, window shades, air infiltration level, HVAC equipment efficiency, and lighting efficiency.
Optimising designs compared to present building construction practices in the region may lower energy con­
sumption by 31–56 per cent. The analysis’s findings show that there is much room to enhance the energy per­
formance of buildings in the North African region by implementing proven energy efficiency methods and
relevant energy policies. The requirement for insulation of building envelope components, on the other hand,
varies according to climatic zone and building type.

following purposes [3].

1. Introduction
1.1. Background and motivation
Other key sectors, such as industry, agriculture, and transportation,
have a more significant understanding of energy consumption than the
building sector [1]. In fact, the building sector exhibits an undefined
energy demand for a variety of reasons [2]:
• The sector spans a range of structure sizes, geometries, and thermal
envelope materials.
• Occupant behaviour is very varied and can affect a dwelling’s energy
usage.
• Privacy concerns restrict the success of collecting and disseminating
energy data for individual homes.
Additionally, the building sector is a user of secondary energy. Sec­
ondary energy is obtained in a form that consuming systems may employ
to maintain occupant comfort. Secondary energy is mainly used for the
• Heating and cooling: energy necessary to support heat loss via the
building envelope by conduction, radiation, and air infiltration/
ventilation to maintain an acceptable temperature and air quality in
the living area.
• Hot water and cooking: energy necessary to cook and heat water to a
comfortable or acceptable temperature for the inhabitants. Appli­
ances and lights: energy consumption by ordinary appliances (e.g.,
refrigerators and coffee makers) and lighting.
It should be noted that total energy consumption is mainly depen­
dent on the climate, the physical characteristics of the building, appli­
ance features and systems, and the ownership and behaviour of the
occupants.
Energy consumption can be complicated and interconnected due to
end-users. For instance, the energy consumed by most typical equipment
results in heating the conditioned living environment. Energy demand
may be met by combining primary and secondary energy sources,
including on-site generating and passive solar gains. The sum of the

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: maaouane_mohamed1718@ump.ac.ma (M. Maaouane).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113283
Received 25 November 2022; Received in revised form 13 May 2023; Accepted 17 June 2023
Available online 17 June 2023
0378-7788/© 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
M. Maaouane et al.
Nomenclature
ACH Air Changes per hour
BC Building Cost
BIM Building Information Modelling
CDD Cooling Degree Days
CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamps
COP Coefficient of Performance
DR Discount Rate
EC Energy Cost
EEM Energy Efficiency Measures
EER Energy Efficiency Ratio
ES Energy Savings
EUI Energy Usage Intensity
GDP Gross Domestic Product
energy consumed by each building in a specific area (e.g., city and
country) results in the building sector’s regional or national energy
consumption, which is the subject of this work [4].
The purpose of modelling building energy consumption is to quantify
energy demand as a function of input factors. Models can be used for a
variety of purposes, the most common being the determination of
regional or national energy supply requirements (macro-scale) [5] and
the estimation of the change in energy consumption of a specific
building as a result of a technology upgrade or addition (micro-scale)
[6].
Buildings energy modelling is beneficial because it can inform policy
decisions about the old and new building stock. By quantifying con­
sumption and forecasting the impact or savings from retrofits and new
materials and technologies, policy decisions can be made to support
energy procurement, incentives for retrofits and energy efficiency
measures, and the development of a new building code for each building
type and climatic zone. These models can focus on thermal zones [7],
buildings [8], neighbourhoods [9], cities [10], states or provinces [11],
regions [12], or countries [13]. The data availability influences the
details’ level of input parameters, the model’s emphasis and goal, and
the assumptions [14]. Without detailed data, modelling the energy use
of a building becomes challenging (the case for the North African
region).
Regarding Modeling methods, building energy modelling techniques
may be classified into two major categories: “top-down” and “bottom-
up.” The terminology alludes to the data inputs’ hierarchical relation­
ship to the building sector [2]. Top-down models estimate total building
energy consumption and other relevant factors to assign energy con­
sumption to the building sector characteristics [15]. In comparison,
bottom-up models analyse the energy usage of a single building or
groups of buildings and then extrapolate the results to reflect an entire
area or country [6]. The following sections detail the categories of the
two top-down and bottom-up building energy modelling methodologies
utilised in this work.
To determine supply requirements, top-down models estimate the
impact of ongoing long-term developments or transitions in the building
sector on energy consumption. Macroeconomic data (gross domestic
product (GDP), price indices, and so on) are frequently employed in top-
down models, as are weather conditions, house construction/demolition
rates, and estimates of air conditioner ownership [16].
Top-down models operate within an equilibrium framework recon­
ciling historical and predicted energy usage. The advantages of top-
down modelling include the requirement for publicly available aggre­
gate data, simplicity, and confidence in historical buildings’ energy
values. In addition, due to the rarity of paradigm shifts in the housing
sector (e.g., electrification and energy shocks), a weighted model has a
high predictive capacity for minor variances from a baseline scenario.
2
Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283
HDD Heating Degree Days
HFCE Household Final Consumption Expenditure
HVAC Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning
IAE International Agency of Energy
ICF Insulating Concrete Forms
LCC Life Cycle Cost
MLR Multiple Linear Regression
NZEB Net Zero Energy Building
P Population
PI Price Index
PPP Purchasing Power Parity
SIP Structural insulated panel
TED Total Energy Demand
USPWF Uniform Series Present Worth Factor
For instance, assume house building grew by 2%. The top-down model
estimates a 1.5 % rise in overall building energy usage in this situation,
as new dwellings are expected to be more energy-efficient. On the other
hand, suppose this construction was extended to 10% of units. In that
instance, the top-down model may have difficulties generating a fair
estimate due to the considerable shift in the vintage distribution of the
building stock [2]. The reliance on historical data is also a disadvantage,
as top-down models cannot model discontinuous technological ad­
vances. Additionally, the lack of detail regarding individual end-use
energy usage prevents identifying critical areas for energy savings [17].
The bottom-up approach refers to any models that use input data at a
lower hierarchical level than the sector as a whole. Individual end uses,
particular structures or building types may be considered in the models,
which are then extended to represent the area or country [1]. Statistical
methods depend on historical data and various forms of regression
analysis to ascribe residential energy usage to specific sources [2]. After
establishing the links between end uses and energy consumption, the
model may be used to estimate the energy consumption of representa­
tive houses in the building stock. End-use energy consumption is
explicitly included in engineering methods as a function of equipment
and system ratings, usage and heat transport, and thermodynamic
correlations.
Building features such as geometry, building envelope, equipment
and appliances, and climatic parameters are frequently used as inputs to
bottom-up models, as are internal temperatures, occupancy schedules
[10], and equipment consumption [18]. Bottom-up modelling’s signif­
icant degree of detail is a strength since it enables it to simulate tech­
nological possibilities. Bottom-up models can determine the energy
consumption of individual end-uses and, as a result, identify possibilities
for improvement. Due to the calculation of energy consumption, the
bottom-up technique can determine total building energy consumption
without depending on historical data. The primary disadvantage of this
level of detail is that it requires more input data than top-down models
and that bottom-up models’ computation or simulation processes might
be complex [16]. Bottom-up models must consistently be expanded to
account for the building sector. This is performed by assigning a weight
to each represented building type. The bottom-up approach’s strength is
its explicit consideration of occupant behaviour and energy savings,
such as passive solar gains [15].
In order to create a three-dimensional parametric model that in­
corporates both geometric and non-geometric design and construction
information, a process referred to as building information modelling
(BIM) is used to conduct this research. BIM is a digital representation of
a facility’s physical and functional attributes that serve as a shared
knowledge resource for information about it and a trustworthy foun­
dation for decision-making throughout the facility’s life cycle, from
initial design through demolition [19]. While it is generally established
M. Maaouane et al.
that BIM provides several benefits to the construction industry,
including adopting an integrated design process, the possibilities of BIM
have lately expanded to encompass retrofitting existing structures. As
Ahmed and Asif note, the use of BIM to retrofit existing buildings is a hot
study topic that has been recognised as the future approach for energy
efficiency studies [3]. This change in efficiency studies toward BIM re­
sults from the numerous advantages and cost savings obtained when
BIM has been implemented appropriately [20]. However, successfully
using BIM in retrofit projects is a challenging process that requires an
adequate framework. Currently, research is concentrating on developing
and enhancing this framework [15]. Recent studies propose a frame­
work for utilising BIM to speed up the energy efficiency process. This
methodology demonstrates how to use BIM [21] to conduct energy and
economic evaluations for targeted energy retrofit projects [22].
Research has established that good parameter management requires
a bottom-up strategy rather than a top-down one when implementing
BIM technology [17].
1.2. The need for energy efficiency measures in buildings in North African
countries
Comparing developed and developing countries, the IEA reports that
information on energy consumption is not broadly available and re­
quires specific surveys, monitoring, or modelling [23]. To monitor
policy effectiveness, energy intensity should be developed by energy
source and technology type. Although an indicator based on energy
source may be sufficient for understanding how to influence energy
consumption trends, the development of minimum energy performance
standards (MEPS) and the tracking of performance necessitate the
development of technology-specific indicators. This level of detail would
provide a solid foundation for understanding how a policy aimed at a
specific technology would affect total energy consumption, as well as
enabling a comparison of the efficacy of various technologies across
countries.
Numerous studies have been conducted to examine and identify the
effect of operating factors on the energy efficiency of buildings struc­
tures in North Africa. Certain studies have concentrated on the influence
of a few design characteristics through the use of simplified analysis
approaches, such as for a single building [24], a single-family house [25]
or a residential building [26]. While sustainable buildings have been
created, debated, and used in several world regions, relatively few
studies have examined the cost-effectiveness of integrating various en­
ergy efficiency measures to construct low-energy structures in the North
African region [27]. A non-depth analytical strategy is typically used
when building NZEBs to evaluate energy efficiency measures, or EEMs,
utilising extensive simulation tools and optimisation approaches [28].
Several countries in the North African area have made significant efforts
over the last decade to enhance the energy efficiency of their building
stock through the development of new regulations, the introduction of
grading systems, and the establishment of branding policies [29].
However, no studies involving the application of BIM technology to
North African nations were identified in the literature [4]. Furthermore,
the few studies investigating future energy demand forecasts relied
solely on trend projections and did not account for future technology
advancements.
1.3. Aims and purposes
Given the limitations described in the literature section, the novelty
of this research work lies in retrofitting buildings in the North African
region with keeping the following points in mind:
• Using a top-down approach and taking into account the socio-
economic aspects specific to each nation, investigate the process of
energy retrofitting in the region’s buildings.
3
Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283
• Conduct an in-depth analysis of each particular measure, taking into
consideration environmental, economic, and technological charac­
teristics, and provide the most effective measure that can be imple­
mented as soon as possible.
• Evaluate the most cost-effective energy efficiency measures and solar
system sizes for each building type and climate zone in order to
achieve a net-zero energy design.
• Develop a new code for the building sector that takes into account
different climatic zones and the different types of buildings that are
already in use. This new code should be based on the entire energy
consumption of the building sector.
2. Methods
Due to the complexity and interdependence of the energy con­
sumption characteristics of buildings, detailed models are required to
estimate the techno-economic implications of adopting energy effi­
ciency and renewable energy technologies suited for building applica­
tions. Therefore, this methodology takes a top-down and bottom-up
approach.
The top-down model is utilised because it relies on historical energy
consumption data. However, bottom-up modelling may be used to
determine the impact of new energy efficiency measures based on their
features and account for the building stock’s enormous variety.
The input variables may be changed by comparing the bottom-up
model’s output to the top-down model’s output. The technique for the
model is summarised in Fig. 1. Indeed, the initial phase entails the
collection of four distinct types of data:
• The evolution of the country’s socio-economic data: Population (P),
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Purchasing Power (PPP), Price Index
(PI), and Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE)
• Floor area by building type collected from national statistical offices
• AutoCAD drawings of typical buildings to build realistic 3D drawings
in Revit Architecture
• Total energy consumption history of the building sector
By finding a correlation between the socio-economic data and the
living areas for each type of building, the projection of the areas in the
future could be made using the multiple linear regression (MLR) tech­
niques [30]. On the other hand, by knowing the areas for each building
type and their associated 3D models, the energy intensities can be
calibrated to correlate with the total energy demand. When these in­
tensities are applied to the projected surfaces (MLR), the obtained en­
ergy will serve as a reference scenario for the rest of the study (yellow
section). Subsequently, different energy efficiency measures (EEMs) are
evaluated based on component cost, energy cost, and climatic zones to
finally propose the optimal energy efficiency measures and PV sizing for
net-zero energy buildings (nZEB) (purple section).
2.1. Prototype building model
Revit’s tools and capabilities are purpose-built to enable building
information modelling (BIM) processes. Revit was created to assist ar­
chitects and other building professionals in designing and documenting
a building by creating a three-dimensional parametric model that in­
corporates both geometric and non-geometric design and construction
information, a process referred to as building information modelling, or
BIM [15] for technical–economic assessment [31], lyfe-cycle [32], or
occupant perceptions [33].
Given the difference in building characteristics, 3D prototypes of
eight different building categories (Fig. 2), in terms of their window
openings relative to walls, area per person, sensible heat gain per per­
son, latent heat gain per person, occupancy schedule, free air per person,
and air exchanged from the outside.
The baseline features of each archetypal building examined in the
M. Maaouane et al.
Fig. 1. Overview of the methodology.
optimisation study [34] are summarised in Table 1. According to various
research, countries in North Africa use reinforced concrete frame
building materials in a similar manner and costs compared to the Mena
region [27] as for the Mediterranean region [35]. Therefore, the base­
line scenario examines the construction features listed in Table 2, where
each structure component is defined by its material composition,
thickness, thermal conductivity, and total thermal resistivity (thermal
conductivity for glazings) [25].
2.2. Climatic zones
Numerous research analysed degree days, which are defined as the
time series of integrated temperature variations from a base temperature
[29]. The base temperature is the temperature at which internal gains (e.
g., heat generated by inhabitants, lighting, and equipment) equal heat
loss or the temperature below (or above) which heating (or cooling)
equipment does not need to run to ensure interior thermal comfort.
Robust degree-day calculations require knowledge of the unique base
temperature of a building, which is determined by the heat loss coeffi­
cient, heat capacity, and infiltration. Notably, the degree-day approach
effectively captures the duration and intensity of weather events, mak­
ing it a helpful tool for estimating both building heating and cooling
demand and outdoor thermal comfort [36]. This section will examine
solely heating and cooling degree days to determine the corresponding
energy requirements or expenses. The HDD (Heating Degree Days) and
CDD (Cooling Degree Days) figures are relevant in determining the
amount of North Africa’s energy consumption. While previous research
4
Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283
has analysed the historical allocation of HDD and CDD individually,
others have recommended combining the two to create a combined
degree-day index that might be useful in the energy demand estimation
process [37]. This study argues that HDD + CDD (standard base tem­
perature of 18 ◦ C) might be a critical indication of indoor and outdoor
thermal comfort and heating and cooling demand in buildings. As a
result, a single map may identify locations with more significant thermal
insulation measures.
The three maps shown in Figs. 3 and 4 are obtained by integrating
the HDD and CDD values in the ArcGIS tool. The values are obtained
from the Solargis database [38].
To evaluate the EEM measurements and propose adequate codes for
the climatic conditions, simulations for 6 Moroccan cities are used since
Morocco scans all the extremes of the HDD + CDD values (Fig. 5). The
distribution of the cities was made according to 6 climatic zones based
on the values of HDD + CDD < 1000, 1000–2000, 2000–3000,
3000–4000, 4000–5000, and > 5000. Since the analysis is done ac­
cording to the climatic zones, the EEM recommendations for each cli­
matic zone and building type remain valid for the whole North African
zone.
2.3. Energy efficiency measures (EEM)
Using HDD + CDD, this research considers standards and easily
implemented design and operational energy efficiency methods (EEMs)
to improve the energy performance of prototype buildings in various
climatic zones throughout the region. Table 3 summarises the 11 EEMs
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

used in the optimisation analysis. Window glazing, wall construction,

roof construction, degree of building orientation, south, north, west, and
east window shades, air infiltration level, HVAC equipment, and lighting
efficiency are all aspects of these metrics and associated alternatives.
The heating and cooling setpoints considered in this study are 21℃ and
23℃, respectively.
The evaluated options for each EEM with the reference design option
are shown in Table 3. They correspond to the feature used to develop 3D
structures in the REVIT environment in numerous locations in the North
African region. Below is a description of the choices associated with each
EEM:
a) b)

• Glazing Type: The study considered four glazing types, taking the
number of panes, the kind of coating applied to the glazed surfaces,
and the gas between the panes.
• Wall Construction: Seven wall types are evaluated based on insu­
lation material and thickness (polystyrene, glass wool, phenolic
foam, structural insulated panel (SIP), and Insulating Concrete Forms
(ICF).
• Roof Construction: Seven wall types are evaluated based on insu­
c) d) lation material and thickness (polystyrene, glass wool, phenolic
foam, SIP, and ICF.
• Degree of building orientation: Eight orientation options are evalu­
ated by varying the azimuth angle between the south and the
building facade.

Table 2
Characteristics of the envelope materials [25].
Building Materials Thickness Thermal R value
components (layers) (cm) conductivity (w/ (m2. K/
e) f)
m2.K) W))

Exterior walls Cement 2 1.1533 0.31

plaster
Hollow 14 0.5013
brick
Cement 2 1.1533
plaster
Roofs Cement 2 1.1533 0.19
plaster
Concrete 16 1.09
block
Concrete 4 1.755
Interior walls Cement 2 1.1533 0.17
plaster
Hollow 7 0.5013
g) h)
brick
Cement 2 1.1533
plaster
Fig. 2. 3D prototype of building types in Revit (a) Apartment (b) Villa (c) Windows Material Épaisseur Valeur U (W/m2 K)
Typical house (d) Commercial building (e) Administrative building (f) School/ (mm)
University (g) Hotel (h) Hospital. Single clear 2.5 5.74

Table 1
Characteristic of the building prototype [34].
Apartment Villa Typical Commercial Administrative School/ Hotel Hospital Other
house building University

WWR (window to wall 25% 1 30% 4 25% 2 60% 1 facade 25% 4 facades 25% 4 facades 25% 4 25% 4 25% 4
ratio) facade facades facades facades facades facades
Area per person m2 17.63 97.07 54.14 10 28 1.4 10 4 1.33
Sensible heat gain per 73.27 73.27 73.27 73.27 73.27 73.27 73.27 73.27 73.27
person W
Latent heat gain per 58.61 58.61 58.61 58.61 58.61 58.61 58.61 58.61 58.61
person W
Occupancy Schedule 13.9 13.9 13.9 7.2 8.45 10.05 13.9 24 7.1
Outdoor air per person 2.36 2.36 2.36 3.54 2.36 4.72 2.36 0 2.36
L/s
Outdoor air per area 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.61 0.3 0.61 0.3 0.3 0.3
L/(s.m2)

5
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

Fig. 3. Annual heating degree day (HDD) for the North Africa region with a temperature base of 18 ◦ C.

Fig. 4. Annual Cooling Degree Day (CDD) for the North Africa region with a temperature base of 18 ◦ C.

Fig. 5. HDD + CDD sum for the North Africa region with a temperature base of 18 ◦ C.

• Window shades as a function of window height for South, North, 0.7 L/s/m2 [39], moderate leakage level with a 30% reduction in the
West and East. basic infiltration rate, and a tight level with a 75% reduction in the
• Air leakage level defined by ACH air infiltration rate (L/s/m2): three basic infiltration rate.
alternatives are considered: basic leakage with an infiltration rate of

6
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

Table 3 2.4. Optimisation approach

Design measures and their corresponding construction alternatives
[27,25,31,40,41]. To undertake the optimisation study, the simulation environment
EEM Options Cost designed for the analysis may consider various cost functions and
Window GlazingU(W/m2k), 5.74, Single glazing, 2.5 50 $/m2
constraint sets. The optimisation cost function used for this work is the
Material, thickness(mm) (Reference archytype) life cycle cost, or LCC, of the baseline scenario and the LCC of the various
2.95, Double glazing filled 90 $/m2 alternatives given in Equation (1) [27].
with air, 2.5/12.7/2.5
1.76, Double glazing filled 102 $/m2 LCCalternative BCalternative + EUI alternative *EC* USPWF
LCCratio = = (1)
with air + 1 low emissivity, 3/ LCCreference BCreference + EUI reference *EC* USPWF
12.7/2.5
0.7, Triple glazing, low-E and 130 $/m2 BC (Building Cost) is the base cost of implementing all design and
argon, 4/16/4/16/4 operating features for the building envelope. EUI (Energy Usage In­
Wall constructionR(W/m2k), 0.3, Uninsulated, 0 (Reference 65.88
tensity) is the annual energy consumption intensity expressed in kWh/
Material, thickness(cm) archytype) $/m2
1, polystyrene, 3 68.46
m2/year necessary to ensure interior comfort in a residential structure
$/m2 based on the design and operating features adopted. The EC (Energy
2, polystyrene, 6 71.05 Cost) is the energy cost represented in dollars per kilowatt-hour. The EUI
$/m2 is calculated by selecting the BIM option in the Insight environment,
3, glass wool, 6 74.41
which includes a cloud simulation toolset for each building component.
$/m2
4, phenollic foam, 6 77.51 USPWF is the uniform series present value factor that transforms
$/m2 future recurring spending into current costs. It is dependent on the
5, SIP, 5 82.88 discount rate DR and the lifespan N Equation (2).
$/m2
6, ICF, 6 90.88 1 − (1 − DR)− N

$/m2 USPWF = (2)

Roof constructionR(W/m2k), 0.2, Uninsulated, 0 (Reference
Material, thickness(cm) archytype)
1, polystyrene, 3
2, polystyrene, 6
3, glass wool, 6
4, phenollic foam, 7
5, SIP, 6
6, ICF, 6
Building orientation (degree) 90, 45, 135, 315, 0 (Reference
archytype), 225,270,180
Window shades - South, North, 0 (Reference), 1/6, 1/4, 1/3,
West and East of window height 1/2, 2/3
ACH infiltration (L/s/m2) 0% (Reference archytype)
Reduction (%) 30%
70%
HVAC equipmentEER/COP 9.5/3.2 (Reference archytype)
11.9/4.0
12,6/4,3
Lighting EfficiencyReduction (%) 0% (Reference archytype)
30%
70%
• HVAC equipment: Three HVAC systems are considered according to
their EER/COP: 9.5/3.2, 11.9/4.0 and 12.6/4.3. COP is a measure of
the energy efficiency of the heating performance of your air condi­
tioning unit. EER is a unit’s cooling output ratio to its input power.
Each value represents the ratio of the quantity of heating or cooling
produced by the air conditioning equipment to the amount of elec­
tricity required.
• Lighting Efficiency: Three lighting options are evaluated and defined
by power density considering all lamps are incandescent lamps (base
lighting), and 1/3 of the fixtures are compact fluorescent lamps
(CFLs). In contrast, the others remain incandescent lamps (i.e. 30%
reduction in base lighting power density), and all fixtures are CFLs 70
% reduction in the power density of base lighting).
DR
102.05
$/m2 The energy savings calculation (ES) is given by Equation (3):
114.95
$/m2 EUI alternative
ES = 1 − (3)
117.53 EUI reference
$/m2
120.89 The sequential search optimisation approach is utilised in this study
$/m2 to discover the best cost-effective energy efficiency package (EEM) for
124.7
North African building design. As seen in Fig. 7, the sequential search
$/m2
132.07
optimisation approach [27] offers the benefit of selecting the ideal so­
$/m2 lution and defining the path to that solution. The graphic depicts the
140.07 general technique of sequential search optimisation in determining the
$/m2 design option with the optimal set of EEMs that minimises the LCCratio as
0 $/m2
indicated by Equation (1).
0 $/m2 Fig. 6 and Fig. 7 summarise the optimisation methodology. After
calculating the LCCbaseline from the baseline scenario elements, the
0 $/m2 effectiveness of all the EEMs is evaluated individually based on their
0.924
LCCalternative and energy savings (ES) compared to the baseline building
$/m2
2.016
energy model. In effect, for each EEM measure (N index), all the alter­
$/m2 natives of the same measure are scanned (M index). The results are
107 $/m2 calculated by nested for loops. For each alternative, the associated ES is
121 $/m2 calculated and stored. Subsequently, the values are ranked in ascending
144 $/m2
order of ES for a 1% step according to their associated LCCratio . In case
0.062
$/W/m2 several measurements show the same ES rate (for a different LCCratio ,
0.107 only the minimum LCCratio is taken into account. This process is repeated
$/W/m2 until all solutions are calculated. Along with the optimal set of EEMs, the
0.212
technique can identify the ideal combinations of EEMs that provide any
$/W/m2
required set of energy savings at the lowest possible life cycle cost.
The ideal design option found by the minimal LCCratio is the one with
the lowest LCCs while still offering energy savings due to the optimal
combination of energy efficiency measures being used. Typically,
building owners and designers use this option to minimise the project’s
total operating and energy expenditures.
Suppose the ES energy savings rate does not reach 100% by the
measures proposed in this analysis. In that case, the NZEB design option
combines both EEMs and PV panel integration with the building’s yearly
energy usage, which is entirely offset by the PV power generation.
To present the optimisation analysis findings in this work, the
building’s lifetime is set to N = 50 years and the discount rate is set at
DR = 5% [42]. These numbers are often based on the expected life of the
buildings and the North African region’s economic characteristics. The
photovoltaic panels used for this analysis have an efficiency of 21% for
0.4899 $/Wp. The investment cost includes module price, inverter price,

7
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

racking price, roof reinforcement and lease cost, grid-connection cost,

etc [39].

2.5. Floor area and Macroeconomic variables

Regression models are excellent tools for forecasting future events

based on knowledge about past or current events. First, a linear trans­
formation is used to model the connection between the two pieces of
information. Then, just the future values of the variables are required,
and the regression model is utilised to convert this data to a forecast.
After obtaining the living area data of a country, the areas can be
classified according to their locations in the six climatic zones already
present (according to the location of the cities). For each building type
ABj i ,Ck (year j, building type Bi and a climatic zone Ck) calculated using
Equation (4) and Equation (5), it is feasible to construct a linear model
with the dependent variables Population, Price Index, Household Final
Consumption Expenditure, Purchasing Power Parity, and Gross Domes­
tic Product. As illustrated in the equation, final consumption expendi­
ture is an independent variable. These are continuous variables.
Total Electricity Demand (TED) is given by Equation (6). The total
energy is calculated by multiplying the power density (electrical
equipment and lighting) expressed in W/m2 by the area in m2 for each
type of building in each climatic zone, adding the fraction of buildings
equipped with an HVAC system in a year j.
R-SQUARED is the correlation coefficient between the observed
values of the outcome variable (Total Energy Demand) and the fitted
values (power density W/m2) in multiple linear regression. The idea is
to adjust the R-SQUARED by adjusting the power density for each
building type.

ABj i ,Ck = ABj− i ,C Bi ,Ck

1 + NAj
k
− DABj i ,Ck (4)

j: the year of calculation

A: living area.
NA: Newly built area.
DA: demolished surface.
Bi: building type 1 ≥ i ≤ 9.
Ck: Climatic zone 1 ≥ k ≤ 6
( ) ( )
ABj i ,Ck =αB1 i ,Ck log POPj + αB2 i ,Ck log PIj + αB3 i ,Ck log(PPPj)
( ) (5)
+ αB4 i ,Ck log(GDPj) + αB5 i ,Ck log HFCEj + βBi ,Ck
Fig. 6. Scanning flowchart of all EEM options.
POPj : Population.
PIj : Price Index.
PPPj : Purchasing Power Parity.
GDPj : Gross Domestic Product.
HFCEj : Household Final Consumption Expanditure.
α, β: the weights of the equation (Multiple Linear Regression)
6 ∑
∑ 9
TEDj = (ABj i ,Ck .PSBi ,Ck .PDBi ,Ck + ABj i ,Ck .LSBi ,Ck .LDBi ,Ck
k=1 i=1

+ Fj HVACBi ,Ck ) . 365 (6)

TED: Total electrical energy required (kWh).

PS: Power Schedule (h).
PD: Power density of electrical equipment (W/m2).
LS: Load Schedule (h).
LD: Lighting power density (W/m2).
F: Fraction of buildings equipped with HVAC (%).
HVAC: HVAC electrical demand (kWh/m2).
Fig. 7. Selection procedure for optimal EEM. For cooking and hot water by a fuel type f (natural gas or LPG), the
total demand that relates energy to the floor area is given by Equation
(7). Knowing the total demand of a fuel type and the building areas, the
model results can be adjusted by calibrating the number of operating
hours and the equivalent power density.

8
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

6 ∑
∑ 9
1.71%
T f Dj = (ABj i ,Ck .WSBi ,Ck .WDBi ,Ck .ηW 3.11% 2.52%
k=1 i=1

+ ABj i ,Ck .CSBi ,Ck .CDBi ,Ck .ηC ). HVf .365 (7) 14.88%

WS: water heating operating Schedule (hours per day).

WD: water heating equivalent power density (W/m2). 30.15%
CS: cooking operating Schedule (hours per day).
CD: equivalent power Cooking Density (W/m2).
ηW : efficiency of water heating equipment (%).
47.63%
ηC : efficiency of cooking equipment (%).
HVf : the calorific value of used fuel oil.

3. Results and discussion <1000 1000-2000 2000-3000 3000-4000 4000-5000 >5000

As mentioned in the methodology section, the analysis is done ac­
cording to climatic zones. Moreover, the construction of buildings in
North Africa is similar. Therefore, it is sufficient to validate the model
for only one country to propose the EEM recommendations for each
climatic zone and each building type for all North African countries.
Morocco was chosen to validate the model for two main reasons: the
first reason is that Morocco has a diversity of climatic zones, including
extreme zones in terms of HDD + CDD. The second reason is that the
Moroccan Bureau of Statistics offers detailed occupied areas for each
type of building which was not always the case for other North African
countries.
• The first step is to validate the model using a top-down approach,
based on the total energy between 2002 and 2017 and the living
areas to ascertain the energy requirements of various building types.
• The second stage is to assess the effect of climatic variables on
heating and cooling energy consumption to recommend the appro­
priate EEM for each location and building type.
• The third step evaluates the impact of these measures on the energy
demand until 2050.
• The last step examines the impact of lifting LPG subsidies on water
heating and cooking.
3.1. Validation
The first step in this study is to use the top-down approach to
determine the energy requirements in terms of specific energy for
Fig. 9. Distribution of buildings according to their climatic zones (HDD +
CDD) [34].
electrical equipment (PSBi ,Ck , PDBi ,Ck ), lighting (LSBi ,Ck , LDBi ,Ck ) knowing
the floor areas each year for each type of building are (Ai Bi ,Ck ) that are
depicted in Fig. 8. Fig. 9 indicates the building’s distribution according
to their climatic zones. It is also necessary to determine the requirement
for cooling and heating by considering the percentage of buildings
equipped with HVAC (energy efficiency ratio for cooling (EER) equal to
9.5 and a coefficient of performance for heating (COP) equal to 3.2 [25
27]). Then, the determination of the thermal requirement for each
building in its climatic zone is performed using Revit software, consid­
ering that none of the energy efficiency measures is implemented, as
summarised in Table 2. Finally, the total energy is calculated using
Equation (6) and presented in Table 6.
For the percentage of buildings equipped with HVAC, we considered
the data provided by the IAE [43], which assumes that the fraction (F) of
buildings equipped with HVAC that in 2002 only 2% of buildings that
are equipped with HVAC, 10% in 2012 and 18% in 2018. To obtain the
fractions for all the years between 2002 and 2018, we proposed the
following polynomial function that passes through these three values:
F(j) = 10− 6 .j3 + 3. 10− 4 .j2 + 3, 8. 10− 3 .j + 2.10− 2
(8)
With j the year number.
Knowing the floor area by type of building (Fig. 8), the thermal de­
mand (Table 6), the fraction of buildings equipped with HVAC, and the
total demand for electricity given by the IAE, it is possible to adjust the
power loads and the operation hours to obtain a total demand (from

Fig. 8. Evolution of the occupied area of the building stock in Morocco [34].

9
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

Table 4
Adjusted values of electrical demand by building type (Reference scenario).
Apartment Villa Typical Commercial Administrative School/ Hotel Hospital Other
house building University

Lighting density W/m2 12 10 10.5 16.15 10.76 12.92 10.76 12.92 14

Power load density W/m2 12 10 10.5 20.45 14 16.15 18.3 17.22 23.68
Lighting Schedule(hours per 9 9 9 10.5 9.9 9.4 8.1 24 1
day)
Power schedule(hours per day) 9 9 9 10.5 9.9 9.4 8.1 24 1

(Equation (6) and Equation (7) were compared with the IAE data from
Table 5 the same period. As shown in Fig. 10, the electric and LPG demand
Adjusted Cooking and Hot Water Demand Values by Building Type (Base Case).
curves are sufficiently separated (R-SQUARED electricity = 0.997, R-
Appartements Villa Typical SQUARED LPG = 0.946). The difference between the two curves is still
houses
acceptable.
Cooking power density W/m2 89 104 159 Two possible explanations for this gap exist: the first is a lack of data
Hours of cooking per day 3 3 3 on non-regulated (non-declared) building development, which may
Water heating power density W/m2 215 251 287
Number of water heating hours per 1 1 1
compromise the calculation of any verified energy consumption esti­
day mates. The second component is methodology-related. Using the top-
down approach, the error comes from the fact that it has been
assumed that the energy intensity is equal for the same type of building
2002 to 2017) as close as possible to the real data according to IAE data between 2002 and 2017, while in reality, for the same type of building,
[43] (maximum R-SQUARED) (Table 7). differences in energy intensity can occur. A more detailed classification
Concerning water heating and cooking, Morocco uses mainly LPG of buildings may offer a better correlation.
(>99%) to satisfy its demand, the efficiency of the cooking equipment is Nevertheless, the error is tolerable, demonstrating the top-down
51.26%, and that of the water heating is 85%. Knowing that the calorific method’s effectiveness generated electrical and LPG powers for each
capacity of LPG is 13.7 kWh/kg, it is sufficient to rationally adjust the building type. These values can now be used to construct a baseline
power demands for each type of building [34]. scenario (Fig. 11).
The values that allowed us to obtain an excellent correlation between
the model curve and the actual values of the total power and LPG de­
mands are presented in Table 4 and Table 5, 3.2. Impact of climatic conditions
Given that the model’s performance can be evaluated using simply
total energy consumption [43] and floor area data [34], the current This section discusses the optimisation findings and the financial
circumstance gives a great chance to do so. Indeed, because the model’s implications of applying energy-saving techniques. Fig. 1 represents the
initial phase utilises a top-down method to determine the exact demand LCCratio as a function of energy savings for the six climatic zones. It
for each building type, the accuracy of the generated values can provide shows the diagrams illustrating the optimal possibilities for designing
a solid baseline for the rest of the analysis. the most energy-efficient buildings considering the minimum cost
Indeed, the results of the energy calculations from 2002 to 2017 LCCratio .
Each figure depicts the LCCratio as a function of energy savings for the

Table 6
Annual thermal demand by type of climatic zone (HDD + CDD) and by type of building (Reference scenario).
HVAC demand (reference) Apartment Villa Typical Commercial Administrative School/ Hotel Hospital Other
(kWh/m2) house building University

<1000 124.01 253.06 124.15 203.12 280.50 196.81 258.23 588.83 106.77
1000–2000 106.11 214.10 131.98 189.50 241.32 157.63 219.05 549.65 67.59
2000–3000 126.02 211.19 125.78 202.73 239.83 156.14 217.56 548.16 66.10
3000–4000 135.37 250.26 136.26 209.65 278.12 194.44 255.86 586.46 104.39
4000–5000 141.55 227.12 147.16 226.83 255.91 172.23 233.65 564.25 82.18
>5000 143.93 239.66 149.43 230.02 268.15 184.46 245.88 576.48 94.42

Table 7
Summary of building design options and costs to minimise LCC for different climatic zones.
EEM HDD þ CDD < HDD þ CDD HDD þ CDD HDD þ CDD HDD þ CDD HDD þ CDD >
1000 1000–2000 2000–3000 3000–4000 4000–5000 5000

Building orientation 180 180 180 180 0 0

degree
Window shades (South) 1/2 2/3 2/3 2/3 1/2 1/2
Window shades (North) 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3 1/2 1/2
Window shades (West) 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3
Window shades (East) 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3
Window glazing Single Clair Single Clair Single Clair Single Clair Double Clair Double Clair
Wall insulation polystyrene (3 cm) polystyrene (3 cm) polystyrene (3 cm) polystyrene (3 cm) phenolic foam (6 cm) phenolic foam (6
cm)
Roof insulation polystyrene (3 cm) polystyrene (3 cm) polystyrene (3 cm) polystyrene (3 cm) polystyrene (3 cm) polystyrene (3 cm)
ACH Infiltration No reduction No reduction No reduction No reduction No reduction No reduction
Lighting efficiency 70 % Reduction 70 % Reduction 70 % Reduction 70 % Reduction 70 % Reduction 70 % Reduction

10
M. Maaouane et al.
3.5E10
3E10
2.5E10
2E10
1.5E10
1E10
5E9
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Electricity Electricity modeled
Fig. 10. Total Energy demand comparison (Morocco) (kWh).
nine Revit-simulated building archetypes in the same climatic zone by
scanning all EEM measures according to their costs. The y-values shown
in the figures correspond to the values of the LCCratio minimals. These
values are considered optimal. The corresponding x-values show the
percentage in terms of energy savings for the EEM options to achieve the
LCCalternative minimal. The set of energy efficiency measures to achieve
the LCCratio minimum ratios are presented in Table 8 and 9. Some EEMs
such as degree of building orientation, window shades, wall insulation,
roof insulation, air infiltration and lighting efficiency are identical for
the nine types of buildings present in the same climatic zone but are
different between one zone and another. On the other hand, it was
noticed that the recommendations for HVAC equipment were different
for each building type in the same climatic zone depending on the
building specifications. Therefore, the optimal energy savings corre­
sponding to these measures are presented in Table 9 for each building
type and climatic zone. These energy savings range from 31% to 56%.
Furthermore, as the energy-saving could never reach 100% by these
suggested EEMs, the size of the photovoltaic panels in W/m2 is given for
the NZEB architecture to achieve 100% energy saving for each building
type and each climatic zone if needed.
It is worth mentioning that the analysis is done according to the
climatic zones and similar building materials for all of North Africa.
Therefore, the EEM recommendations shown in this section for each
climatic zone and each building type are recommended for all North
African countries.
3.3. Forecast
This section evaluates the impact of the EEM measures identified in
the previous section on energy demand through 2050. According to
Equation (5), Equation (6) and Equation (7), the consistency of the
forecasted results is mainly dependent on the accuracy of the socio-
economic variables used to project the floor areas of each building
type. The population prediction is based on the Haut Commissariat au
Plan’s study [34]. Moroccan population will rise by 29% in 2050 if the
medium fertility scenario is followed. The HSBC [44] research study was
used to forecast GDP. Their theory considers a number of conservative
parameters, including population growth, educational and employment
possibilities, and democratic indices. The average growth rate between
2020 and 2030 was expected to be 9%, 4% between 2030 and 2040, and
3.9 % between 2040 and 2050. To prevent reverse causality, the
complexity and issues associated with future economic growth were
computed using the average growth rates from 2010 to 2020 for the
price index, purchasing power parity, and household final consumption
Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283
R-squared =
R-squared =
0.946
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LPG LPG modeled
expenditure [45].
Without clear government forecasting studies, it was critical to
create a reference scenario in which no energy-saving measures are
implemented until 2050. There are no plans to lower future energy
demand. Energy demand results from the development of the pace at
which buildings equipped with HVAC systems are constructed. The same
polynomial equation previously used in equation (8), with j the number
of years between 18 and 50, was used to obtain the percentage of
buildings equipped with HVAC to meet their thermal demands. This
same function allowed to obtain 40% in 2030 (estimated by the IAE) and
100% in 2050.
In the second scenario, the energy reduction potentials were evalu­
ated using the optimal energy efficiency measures demonstrated in the
previous paragraph according to the building type and climatic region.
In practice, these measures cannot be implemented overnight. There­
fore, it has been assumed that a time interval of 10 years (between 2023
and 2033) is needed for all new or renovated buildings to implement
these measures. The gradual introduction of these measures into
building practices is achieved using a sigmoid function (S-curve) given
by equation (8) (with A = 0.98, B = 0.8 and C = 2). This function was
chosen because EEMs are relatively new in North African countries.
1
S(x) = (9)
(A + e− Bx )C
This scenario is interesting because it examines the energy savings
potential for adopting EEMs throughout the building sector.
The third scenario manages to achieve an even higher level of energy
efficiency by evaluating the possibility of alternating LPG with elec­
tricity for cooking and water heating if the government no longer sub­
sidises LPG.
Indeed, by considering the efficiency of electrical and LPG equip­
ment, we see that the efficiency of electrical equipment is higher
(Table 9). By calculating the total cost ($/kWh) to meet the same energy
demand over ten years (lifetime of cooking and water heating equip­
ment), it can be seen that cancelling LPG subsidies increases the overall
cost, making it even more expensive than electricity (Fig. 12) [45].
Therefore, the most financially advantageous choice for the consumer
would certainly be to adapt their equipment for electricity consumption.
Given the higher efficiencies of electrical equipment, the imminent
benefit is a reduction in total energy demand.
Fig. 13 represents the evolution of total building energy demand
between 2017 and 2050 for the three scenarios discussed previously.
The results show energy demand for LPG, electricity demand for
equipment and lighting and electricity demand for maintaining HVAC
11
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

Fig. 11. Selection procedure for optimal EEM for different climatic zones (a) HDD + CDD < 1000, (b) 1000 < HDD + CDD < 2000, (c) 2000 < HDD + CDD < 3000,
(d) 3000 < HDD + CDD < 4000, (e) 4000 < HDD + CDD < 5000, (f) 5000 < HDD + CDD LCCratio according to the energy saving of the different types of buildings a)
HDD + CDD < 1000, b) 1000 < HDD + CDD < 2000, c) 2000 < HDD + CDD < 3000, d) 3000 < HDD + CDD < 4000, e) 4000 < HDD + CDD < 5000, f) 5000 < HDD
+ CDD.

thermal comfort, assuming 18% of buildings are equipped with HVAC in
2018 and 100% in 2050. Fig. 13 (a) estimates the total energy demand
when no energy efficiency measures are adopted. If the same building
practices are maintained in 2050, the total energy demand can reach
137 TWh in 2050 (253% increase from 2017).
By adopting the energy efficiency measures for each building and
each climatic zone analysed in paragraph 3.2, the total demand can only
be 104 TWh in 2050. Thus reducing the total energy by 24% compared
to the 1st scenario. This study assumes that ten years is needed to
implement these measures in new buildings (between 2023 and 2033).
The stricter the country’s policy, the less time it takes to reduce demand.
The recommendations of the 3rd scenario allow for greater energy
savings by replacing LPG with electricity for cooking and water heating
if the government decides to cancel the LPG subsidy in 2023. This would

12
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

Fig. 11. (continued).

13
M. Maaouane et al. Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283

Table 8
Summary of building design options and costs to minimise LCC for different climatic zones (continued).
HDD þ EEM Apartment Villa Typical Commercial Administrative School/ Hotel Hospital Other
CDD house building University

<1000 HVAC EER/COP 9.5/3.2 11.9/ 9.5/3.2 9.5/3.2 11.9/4.0 11.9/4.0 11.9/ 11.9/4.0 11.9/
4.0 4.0 4.0
Optimal energy 35% 52% 47% 46% 33% 35% 34% 35% 36%
savings
PV size NZEB design 60 132 64 94 140 94 142 210 99
W/m2
1000–2000 HVAC EER/COP 9.5/3.2 11.9/ 11.9/4.0 9.5/3.2 11.9/4.0 11.9/4.0 11.9/ 11.9/4.0 11.9/
4.0 4.0 4.0
Optimal energy 58 117 72 92 127 79 125 222 86
savings
PV size NZEB design 48% 37% 39% 42% 35% 33% 36% 40% 39%
W/m2
2000–3000 HVAC EER/COP 9.5/3.2 11.9/ 9.5/3.2 9.5/3.2 11.9/4.0 11.9/4.0 11.9/ 11.9/4.0 11.9/
4.0 4.0 4.0
Optimal energy 42% 31% 39% 38% 29% 31% 31% 32% 33%
savings
PV size NZEB design 68 114 68 99 125 77 123 220 84
W/m2
3000–4000 HVAC EER/COP 9.5/3.2 11.9/ 9.5/3.2 9.5/3.2 11.9/4.0 11.9/4.0 11.9/ 11.9/4.0 11.9/
4.0 4.0 4.0
Optimal energy 48% 33% 43% 44% 31% 33% 32% 33% 34%
savings
PV size NZEB design 69 127 69 96 137 91 135 226 99
W/m2
4000–5000 HVAC EER/COP 9.5/3.2 11.9/ 9.5/3.2 9.5/3.2 11.9/4.0 11.9/4.0 11.9/ 11.9/4.0 11.9/
4.0 4.0 4.0
Optimal energy 55% 36% 48% 51% 34% 36% 35% 36% 38%
savings
PV size NZEB design 69 111 72 102 122 78 120 207 84
W/m2
>5000 HVAC EER/COP 9.5/3.2 11.9/ 9.5/3.2 9.5/3.2 11.9/4.0 11.9/4.0 11.9/ 11.9/4.0 11.9/
4.0 4.0 4.0
Optimal energy 56% 37% 49% 52% 35% 36% 36% 37% 38%
savings
PV size NZEB design 66 119 74 102 127 83 130 194 89
W/m2

Table 9
Comparison between LPG and electricity as FUEL for cooking and water heating [45].
Capital Operating cost with Operating cost without Maintenance cost per year lifetime the efficiency of the water heating
cost $ subsidy $/kWh subsidy $/kWh $/kWh/year stove efficiency

LPG 246 4.83E-02 9.66E-02 2.65E-04 10 51.3% 85%

Electricity 737 9.00E-02 9.00E-02 1.59E-04 10 80.6% 95%

North African region, a top-down approach was utilised to develop a

Fig. 12. Summary of the total cost of cooking and heating water in 10 years
Evaluation of EEM measures for the three scenarios (a), (b), (c)..
result in a 9.4% reduction compared to the 2nd scenario in 2050.
4. Conclusion
In the lack of specific data on building energy consumption in the
baseline scenario based on socio-economic characteristics for each
building type and climatic zone. Then, using a sequential search opti­
misation technique in conjunction with BIM technology (bottom-up
approach), the most cost-effective energy efficiency measures and
photovoltaic system sizes are evaluated for the various prototype
building types located in multiple zones throughout the North African
region. During the optimisation study, numerous energy efficiency
measures include window glazing, wall construction, roof construction,
degree of building orientation, south, north, west, and east window
shades, air infiltration levels, HVAC equipment, and lighting efficiency.
It was shown that energy consumption might be lowered by 31–56 %
(depending on the climatic zone and type of structure) cost-effectively
by using optimal designs compared to existing regional building
design methods. Additionally, by evaluating the influence of these op­
timum actions on Morocco’s future energy consumption, the country
may cut its overall energy demand by 31% in 2050, compared to the
scenario in which no efficiency measures are implemented. The ana­
lysis’s findings show that there is much room to enhance the energy
performance of buildings in the North African area by implementing
proven energy efficiency methods and implementing these relevant
energy recommendations according to each climatic zone and building

14
M. Maaouane et al.
Fig. 13. Evaluation of EEM measures for the three scenarios (a), (b), (c).
type. However, the findings of this study have to be seen in the light of
some limitations. Since the study evaluated detailed efficiency measures
at a very detailed level (nine building types and six climatic zones), it
was challenging to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the utility rate.
Future studies can address this particular issue by evaluating the impact
of electricity cost variation on energy savings and energy efficiency
optimal measures.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Mohamed Maaouane: Conceptualization, Methodology, Valida­
tion, Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation, Writing – original
draft, Writing – review & editing, Visualization. Mohammed Chennaif:
Methodology, Validation, Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation,
Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. Smail Zouggar:
Supervision, Formal analysis, Validation. Goran Krajačić: Data cura­
tion, Methodology, Formal analysis, Validation, Writing – original draft,
15
Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283
Writing – review & editing. Salaheddine Amrani: Software, Method­
ology, Validation. Hassan Zahboune: Methodology, Validation.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
I have shared the link of my data in the Reference section of the paper
References
[1] C. Deb, A. Schlueter, Review of data-driven energy modelling techniques for
building retrofit, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 144 (2021), 110990, https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.110990.
[2] L.G. Swan, V.I. Ugursal, Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential
sector: A review of modeling techniques, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 13 (8)
(2009) 1819–1835, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2008.09.033.
[3] M. Krarti, M. Aldubyan, E. Williams, Residential building stock model for
evaluating energy retrofit programs in Saudi Arabia, Energy 195 (2020), 116980,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.116980.
[4] C. Nägeli, M. Jakob, G. Catenazzi, Y. Ostermeyer, Towards agent-based building
stock modeling: Bottom-up modeling of long-term stock dynamics affecting the
energy and climate impact of building stocks, Energy Build. 211 (2020) 109763.
[5] G. Tardioli, Building energy demand modeling. 2018.
[6] L. Kotzur, P. Markewitz, M. Robinius, G. Cardoso, P. Stenzel, M. Heleno, D. Stolten,
Bottom-up energy supply optimization of a national building stock, Energy Build.
209 (2020) 109667.
[7] S. Zhang, Y. Fu, X. Yang, W. Xu, Assessment of mid-to-long term energy saving
impacts of nearly zero energy building incentive policies in cold region of China,
Energy Build. 241 (2021), 110938, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
enbuild.2021.110938.
[8] B. Kavitha, M.V. Molykutty, Life cycle energy analysis of a glazed commercial
building using building information modelling (BIM) tools, Mater. Today Proc. 37
(Part 2) (2020) 940–946, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2020.06.148.
[9] D. Wang, J. Landolt, G. Mavromatidis, K. Orehounig, J. Carmeliet, CESAR: A
bottom-up building stock modelling tool for Switzerland to address sustainable
energy transformation strategies, Energy Build. 169 (2018) 9–26, https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.enbuild.2018.03.020.
[10] M. Gholami, D. Torreggiani, P. Tassinari, A. Barbaresi, Narrowing uncertainties in
forecasting urban building energy demand through an optimal archetyping
method, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 148 (June) (2021), 111312, https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.rser.2021.111312.
[11] Z. Ma, J. Song, J. Zhang, Energy consumption prediction of air-conditioning
systems in buildings by selecting similar days based on combined weights, Energy
Build. 151 (2017) 157–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.06.053.
[12] K. Petrichenko, D. Ürge-Vorsatz, L.F. Cabeza, Modeling global and regional
potentials for building-integrated solar energy generation, Energy Build. 198
(2019) 329–339, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.06.024.
[13] N.H. Sandberg, I. Sartori, M.I. Vestrum, H. Brattebø, Explaining the historical
energy use in dwelling stocks with a segmented dynamic model: Case study of
Norway 1960–2015, Energy Build. 132 (2016) 141–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.enbuild.2016.05.099.
[14] L. Sanhudo, N.M.M. Ramos, J. Poças Martins, R.M.S.F. Almeida, E. Barreira, M.
L. Simões, V. Cardoso, Building information modeling for energy retrofitting – A
review, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 89 (2018) 249–260.
[15] E. Kamel, A.M. Memari, Review of BIM’s application in energy simulation: Tools,
issues, and solutions, Autom. Constr., vol. 97, no. October 2018, pp. 164–180, 2019,
doi: 10.1016/j.autcon.2018.11.008.
[16] M.L. Chalal, M. Benachir, M. White, R. Shrahily, Energy planning and forecasting
approaches for supporting physical improvement strategies in the building sector:
A review, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 64 (2016) 761–776, https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.rser.2016.06.040.
[17] N. Luo, M. Pritoni, T. Hong, An overview of data tools for representing and
managing building information and performance data, Renew. Sustain. Energy
Rev. 147 (April) (2021), 111224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111224.
[18] M. Österbring, É. Mata, L. Thuvander, M. Mangold, F. Johnsson, H. Wallbaum,
A differentiated description of building-stocks for a georeferenced urban bottom-up
building-stock model, Energy Build. 120 (2016) 78–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
enbuild.2016.03.060.
[19] S. Mordue, “OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS: Definition on BIM,” pp. 6–7, 2015,
[Online]. Available: https://www.ace-cae.eu/fileadmin/New_Upload/3._Area_2_
Practice/BIM/Other_Docs/1_S.Mordue_Definition_of_BIM_01.pdf.
[20] J. Zuo, Z.Y. Zhao, Green building research-current status and future agenda: A
review, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 30 (2014) 271–281, https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.rser.2013.10.021.
[21] M.B. Hamida, W. Ahmed, M. Asif, F.A. Almaziad, Techno-economic assessment of
energy retrofitting educational buildings: A case study in Saudi Arabia, Sustain. 13
(1) (2021) 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13010179.
M. Maaouane et al.
[22] R. Bruno, C. Carpino, P. Bevilacqua, J. Settino, and N. Arcuri, “A novel
Stay–In–Place formwork for vertical walls in residential nZEB developed for the
Mediterranean climate: hygrothermal, energy, comfort and economic analyses,”
J. Build. Eng., vol. 45, no. July 2021, p. 103593, 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.
jobe.2021.103593.
[23] IEA (2014), Energy Efficiency Indicators: Essentials for Policy Making, IEA, Paris
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-indicators-essentials-for-policy-
making.
[24] Q. Tushar, M.A. Bhuiyan, G. Zhang, T. Maqsood, An integrated approach of BIM-
enabled LCA and energy simulation: the optimized solution towards sustainable
development, J. Clean. Prod. 289 (2021), 125622, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
jclepro.2020.125622.
[25] Z. Romani, A. Draoui, F. Allard, Metamodeling the heating and cooling energy
needs and simultaneous building envelope optimization for low energy building
design in Morocco, Energy Build. 102 (2015) 139–148, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
enbuild.2015.04.014.
[26] I. Merini, A. Molina-García, M. Socorro García-Cascales, M. Mahdaoui, and M.
Ahachad, Analysis and comparison of energy efficiency code requirements for
buildings: A Morocco-Spain case study, Energies, 13 (22), 2020, doi: 10.3390/
en13225979.
[27] M. Krarti, P. Ihm, Evaluation of net-zero energy residential buildings in the MENA
region, Sustain. Cities Soc. 22 (2016) 116–125, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
scs.2016.02.007.
[28] Y.W. Al-Saeed, A. Ahmed, Evaluating design strategies for nearly zero energy
buildings in the middle east and North Africa regions, Designs 2 (4) (2018) 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.3390/designs2040035.
[29] B. Chegari, M. Tabaa, F. Moutaouakkil, E. Simeu, H. Medromi, Local energy self-
sufficiency for passive buildings: Case study of a typical Moroccan building,
J. Build. Eng., vol. 29, no. July 2019, p. 101164, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.
jobe.2019.101164.
[30] M. Bourdeau, X.Q. Zhai, E. Nefzaoui, X. Guo, P. Chatellier, Modeling and
forecasting building energy consumption: A review of data-driven techniques,
Sustain. Cities Soc. 48 (2019) 101533.
[31] W. Ahmed, M. Asif, BIM-based techno-economic assessment of energy retrofitting
residential buildings in hot humid climate, Energy Build. 227 (2020), 110406,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110406.
[32] X. Xu, T. Mumford, P.X.W. Zou, Life-cycle building information modelling (BIM)
engaged framework for improving building energy performance, Energy Build. 231
(2021), 110496, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110496.
16
Energy & Buildings 294 (2023) 113283
[33] A. Francisco, H. Truong, A. Khosrowpour, J.E. Taylor, N. Mohammadi, Occupant
perceptions of building information model-based energy visualizations in eco-
feedback systems, Appl. Energy 221 (April) (2018) 220–228, https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.132.
[34] https://www.hcp.ma/.
[35] E. Znouda, N. Ghrab-Morcos, A. Hadj-Alouane, Optimization of Mediterranean
building design using genetic algorithms, Energy Build. 39 (2) (2007) 148–153,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2005.11.015.
[36] M. Krarti, Energy performance of control strategies for smart glazed windows
applied to office buildings, J. Build. Eng., 45, no. August 2021, p. 103462, 2022,
doi: 10.1016/j.jobe.2021.103462.
[37] Y. Petri, K. Caldeira, Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling
degree-days in the United States, Sci. Rep. 5 (2015) 1–14, https://doi.org/
10.1038/srep12427.
[38] https://solargis.com/.
[39] D. Pan, Y. Bai, M. Chang, X. Wang, W. Wang, The technical and economic potential
of urban rooftop photovoltaic systems for power generation in Guangzhou, China,
Energy Build. 277 (2022), 112591, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
enbuild.2022.112591.
[40] R. Ménard, J. Souviron, Passive solar heating through glazing: The limits and
potential for climate change mitigation in the European building stock, Energy
Build. 228 (2020) 110400.
[41] M. Dhaif, A. Stephan, A life cycle cost analysis of structural insulated panels for
residential buildings in a hot and arid climate, Buildings 11 (6) (2021) 1–23,
https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11060255.
[42] N. Abdou, Y. EL Mghouchi, S. Hamdaoui, N. EL Asri, M. Mouqallid, Multi-objective
optimization of passive energy efficiency measures for net-zero energy building in
Morocco, Build. Environ. 204 (July) (2021), 108141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
buildenv.2021.108141.
[43] International Energy Agency, “Morocco 2019,” p. 221, 2019, [Online]. Available:
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/energy-policies-beyond-iea-countries-
morocco-2019_10f93028-en.
[44] K. Ward, “The World in 2050: from the top 30 to the Top 100,” HSBC Glob. Res., no.
January, p. 42, 2012, [Online]. Available: http://www.hsbc.com/~/media/HSBC-
com/about-hsbc/advertising/pdfs/the-world-in- 2050.ashx.
[45] https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx.