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Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Contents
Preface xix Case Exercise: Designing a Managerial
About the Authors xxiii Incentives Contract 23
Case Exercise: Shareholder Value of Renewable
Energy from Wind Power at Hydro Co.:
PART I Is RE < C? 24
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ix
x Contents
Case Exercise: Revenue Management at 4-2 A Simple Linear Regression Model 105
American Airlines 61 4-2a Assumptions Underlying the Simple
Linear Regression Model 106
4-2b Estimating the Population Regression
PART II Coefficients 107
4-3 Using the Regression Equation to Make
DEMAND AND FORECASTING 63 Predictions 110
4-3a Inferences about the Population
3 Demand Analysis 64 Regression Coefficients 112
Chapter Preview 64 4-3b Correlation Coefficient 115
4-3c The Analysis of Variance 116
Managerial Challenge: Health Care 4-4 Multiple Linear Regression Model 118
Reform and Cigarette Taxes 64 4-4a Use of Computer Programs 118
3-1 Demand Relationships 66 4-4b Estimating the Population Regression
3-1a The Demand Schedule Defined 66 Coefficients 118
3-1b Constrained Utility Maximization and 4-4c Using the Regression Model to Make
Consumer Behavior 67 Forecasts 118
What Went Right/What Went Wrong: 4-4d Inferences about the Population
Chevy Volt 71 Regression Coefficients 119
3-2 The Price Elasticity of Demand 72 4-4e The Analysis of Variance 121
3-2a Price Elasticity Defined 73 Summary 122
3-2b Interpreting the Price Elasticity: The Exercises 122
Relationship between the Price Elasticity Case Exercise: Soft Drink Demand Estimation 126
and Sales Revenue 76
3-2c The Importance of Elasticity-Revenue 4A Problems in Applying the Linear
Relationships 82 Regression Model 129
3-2d Factors Affecting the Price Elasticity of 4A-1 Introduction 129
Demand 84 4A-1a Autocorrelation 129
4A-1b Heteroscedasticity 131
International Perspectives: Free Trade 4A-1c Specification and Measurement Errors 132
and the Price Elasticity of Demand: 4A-1d Multicollinearity 133
Nestlé Yogurt 86 4A-1e Simultaneous Equation Relationships
3-3 The Income Elasticity of Demand 87 and the Identification Problem 133
3-3a Income Elasticity Defined 87 4A-2 Nonlinear Regression Models 136
3-4 Cross Elasticity of Demand 90 4A-2a Semilogarithmic Transformation 136
3-4a Cross Price Elasticity Defined 90 4A-2b Double-Log Transformation 136
3-4b Interpreting the Cross Price Elasticity 90 4A-2c Reciprocal Transformation 137
3-4c Antitrust and Cross Price Elasticities 90 4A-2d Polynomial Transformation 137
3-4d An Empirical Illustration of Price, Summary 138
Income, and Cross Elasticities 92 Exercises 138
3-5 The Combined Effect of Demand
Elasticities 92 5 Business and Economic Forecasting 141
Summary 93 Chapter Preview 141
Exercises 94 Managerial Challenge: Excess Fiber Optic
Case Exercise: Polo Golf Shirt Pricing 97 Capacity at Global Crossing Inc. 141
Case Exercise: Fifty Years of Sales 5-1 The Significance of Forecasting 143
Maximization at Volkswagen 98 5-2 Selecting a Forecasting Technique 143
5-2a Hierarchy of Forecasts 143
4 Estimating Demand 101 5-2b Criteria Used to Select a Forecasting
Chapter Preview 101 Technique 144
Managerial Challenge: Demand for 5-2c Evaluating the Accuracy of Forecasting
Models 144
Whitman’s Chocolate Samplers 101
4-1 Statistical Estimation of the Demand What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
Function 102 Crocs Shoes 144
Specification
4-1a Copyright of the Model 103 5-3 Alternative Forecasting Techniques
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Contents xi
5-4 Deterministic Trend Analysis 145 6-5a Import-Export Flows and Transaction
5-4a Components of a Time Series 145 Demand for a Currency 192
5-4b Some Elementary Time-Series Models 146 6-5b The Equilibrium Price of the U.S. Dollar 193
5-4c Secular Trends 147 6-5c Speculative Demand, Government
5-4d Seasonal Variations 150 Transfers, and Coordinated Intervention 193
5-5 Smoothing Indicators 152 6-5d Short-Term Exchange Rate Fluctuations 194
5-5a Moving Averages 153 6-6 Determinants of Long-Run Trends in
5-5b First-Order Exponential Smoothing 155 Exchange Rates 195
5-6 Barometric Techniques 158 6-6a The Role of Real Growth Rates 195
5-6a Leading, Lagging, and Coincident 6-6b The Role of Real Interest Rates 198
Indicators 158 6-6c The Role of Expected Inflation 198
5-7 Survey and Opinion-Polling Techniques 159 6-7 Purchasing Power Parity 199
5-7a Forecasting Macroeconomic Activity 160 6-7a PPP Offers a Better Yardstick of
5-7b Sales Forecasting 161 Comparative Size of Business Activity 200
5-8 Macroeconometric Models 161 What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
5-8a Advantages of Econometric Forecasting Big Box U.S. Retailers in China 202
Techniques 161 6-7b Relative Purchasing Power Parity 202
5-8b Single-Equation Models 161 6-7c Qualifications of PPP 203
5-8c Multi-Equation Models 163 6-7d The Appropriate Use of PPP: An
5-8d Consensus Forecasts: Livingston and Overview 204
Blue Chip Forecaster Surveys 164
What Went Right/What Went Wrong: GM,
5-9 Forecasting with Input-Output Tables 165
Toyota, and the Celica GT-S Coupe 205
International Perspectives: Long-Term 6-7e Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Index 206
Sales Forecasting by General Motors 6-8 International Trade: A Managerial
in Overseas Markets 165 Perspective 209
5-10 Advanced Material: Stochastic 6-8a Shares of World Trade and Regional
Time-series Analysis 166 Trading Blocs 209
Summary 169 6-8b Comparative Advantage and Free Trade 211
Exercises 169 6-8c Import Controls and Protective Tariffs 214
Case Exercise: Cruise Ship Arrivals in Alaska 173 6-8d The Case for Strategic Trade Policy 215
Case Exercise: Lumber Price Forecast 174 6-8e Increasing Returns 218
Case Exercise: Forecasting in the Global 6-8f Network Externalities 218
Financial Crisis 175 6-9 Free Trade Areas: The European Union
and NAFTA 219
6 Managing in the Global Economy 178 6-9a Optimal Currency Areas 219
Chapter Preview 178 6-9b Intraregional Trade 220
6-9c Mobility of Labor 220
Managerial Challenge: The Role of the 6-9d Correlated Macroeconomic Shocks 221
FX Rate in Assessing Foreign Business 6-10 Largest U.S. Trading Partners:
Opportunity 178 The Role of NAFTA 222
6-1 Introduction 181 6-10a A Comparison of the EU and NAFTA 224
What Went Right/What Went Wrong: 6-10b Gray Markets, Knockoffs, and Parallel
Export Market Pricing at Toyota 181 Importing 225
6-2 Import-Export Sales and Exchange What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
Rates 182 Ford Motor Co. and Exide Batteries:
6-2a Foreign Exchange Risk 183 Are Country Managers Here to Stay? 226
International Perspectives: Collapse 6-11 Perspectives on the U.S. Trade Deficit 227
of Export and Domestic Sales Summary 229
at Cummins Engine 184 Exercises 230
6-3 Outsourcing 185 Case Exercise: Predicting the Long-Term
6-4 China Trade Blossoms 187 Trends in Value of the U.S. Dollar and
6-4a China Today 189 the Euro 231
6-5 The Market for U.S. Dollars as Foreign Case Exercise: Elaborate the Debate on
Exchange 191 NAFTAin whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
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xii Contents
6A Foreign Exchange Risk Management 232 7-8d Empirical Studies of the Cobb-Douglas
International Perspectives: Toyota and Production Function in Manufacturing 263
Honda Buy U.S. Assembly Capacity 233 7-8e A Cross-Sectional Analysis of U.S.
Manufacturing Industries 263
Summary 266
PART III Exercises 267
Case Exercise: The Production Function
PRODUCTION AND COST 235 for Wilson Company 270
9-1c The Form of the Empirical Cost-Output 10-3c The Power of Buyers and Suppliers 346
Relationship 310 10-3d The Intensity of Rivalrous Tactics 347
What Went Right/What Went Wrong: 10-3e The Myth of Market Share 351
Boeing: The Rising Marginal Cost 10-4 A Continuum of Market Structures 351
10-4a Pure Competition 352
of Wide-Bodies 311 10-4b Monopoly 353
9-1d Statistical Estimation of Short-Run 10-4c Monopolistic Competition 354
Cost Functions 312 10-4d Oligopoly 354
9-1e Statistical Estimation of Long-Run 10-5 Price-Output Determination under
Cost Functions 313 Pure Competition 355
9-1f Determining the Optimal Scale of an 10-5a Short Run 355
Operation 313 10-5b Profit Maximization under Pure
9-1g Economies of Scale versus Economies Competition (Short Run): Adobe
of Scope 316 Corporation 358
9-1h Engineering Cost Techniques 316 10-5c Long Run 359
9-1i The Survivor Technique 318 10-6 Price-Output Determination under
9-1j A Cautionary Tale 318
Monopolistic Competition 362
9-2 Break-Even Analysis 319
9-2a Graphical Method 320 What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
9-2b Algebraic Method 320 The Dynamics of Competition at
9-2c Some Limitations of Break-Even Analysis 323 Amazon.com 363
9-2d Doing a Break-Even versus a 10-6a Short Run 363
Contribution Analysis 323 10-6b Long Run 363
9-2e A Limitation of Contribution Analysis 325 10-7 Selling and Promotional Expenses 365
9-2f Operating Leverage 325 10-7a Determining the Optimal Level
9-2g Inherent Business Risk 327 of Selling and Promotional Outlays 366
Summary 327 10-7b Optimal Advertising Intensity 367
10-7c The Net Value of Advertising 368
Exercises 328
10-8 Competitive Markets under
Case Exercise: Cost Functions 329
Asymmetric Information 369
Case Exercise: Charter Airline Operating
10-8a Incomplete versus Asymmetric
Decisions 330 Information 369
10-8b Search Goods versus Experience Goods 370
PART IV 10-8c Adverse Selection and the Notorious
Firm 370
PRICING AND OUTPUT DECISIONS: 10-8d Insuring and Lending under Asymmetric
STRATEGY AND TACTICS 333 Information: Another Lemons Market 372
10-9 Solutions to the Adverse Selection
10 Prices, Output, and Strategy: Pure and Problem: Advanced Material 373
Monopolistic Competition 334 10-9a Mutual Reliance: Hostage Mechanisms
Chapter Preview 334 Support Asymmetric Information
Managerial Challenge: Resurrecting Exchange 373
10-9b Brand-Name Reputations as Hostages 374
Apple in the Tablet World 334
10-9c Price Premiums with Non-Redeployable
10-1 Introduction 335 Assets 376
10-2 Competitive Strategy 336
Summary 378
What Went Right/What Went Wrong: Exercises 379
Xerox 337 Case Exercise: Netflix and Redbox Compete
10-2a Generic Types of Strategies 338 for Movie Rentals 381
10-2b Product Differentiation Strategy 338 Case Exercise: Saving Sony Music 382
10-2c Cost-Based Strategy 338
10-2d Information Technology Strategy 339 1 1 Price and Output Determination:
10-2e The Relevant Market Concept 341 Monopoly and Dominant Firms 384
10-3 Porter’s Five Forces Strategic Chapter Preview 384
Framework 341 Managerial Challenge: Dominant
10-3a The Threat of Substitutes 342 Microprocessor Company Intel
10-3b2017The
Copyright Threat
Cengage of Entry
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be343 Adapts intowhole
copied, scanned, or duplicated, Next
or inTrend
part. WCN 02-200-203 384
xiv Contents
13-5b Importance of the Order of Play 473 14-2c Multiple-Product Pricing Decision 516
13-5c A Sequential Coordination Game 474 14-2d Differential Pricing and the Price
13-5d Subgame Perfect Equilibrium in Elasticity of Demand 517
Sequential Games 476 What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
13-6 Business Rivalry as a Self-Enforcing Two-Part Pricing at Disney World 522
Sequential Game 477 14-3 Differential Pricing in Target Market
13-6a First-Mover and Fast-Second Segments 522
Advantages 478 14-3a Direct Segmentation with “Fences” 523
13-7 Credible Threats and Commitments 480 14-3b Optimal Two-Part Tariffs 526
13-8 Mechanisms for Establishing What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
Credibility 481 Unlimited Data at Verizon Wireless 526
13-9 Replacement Guarantees 483 14-3c Couponing 527
13-9a Hostages Support the Credibility of
Commitments 484 What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
13-9b Credible Commitments of Durable Price-Sensitive Customers Redeem 528
Goods Monopolists 485 14-3d Bundling 528
13-9c Planned Obsolescence 486 14-3e Price Discrimination 531
13-9d Post-Purchase Discounting Risk 487 14-4 Pricing in Practice 533
13-9e Lease Prices Reflect Anticipated Risks 489 14-4a Product Life Cycle Framework 533
14-4b Full-Cost Pricing versus Incremental
Summary 489 Contribution Analysis 535
Exercises 490 14-4c Pricing on the Internet 537
Case Exercise: International Perspectives: Summary 540
The Superjumbo Dilemma 495 Exercises 541
Case Exercise: Partitoning the Price of the
13A Entry Deterrence and Accommodation Chevy Volt 543
Games 497
13A-1 Excess Capacity as a Credible 14A The Practice of Revenue Management 545
Threat 497 14A-1 A Cross-Functional Systems
13A-2 Precommitments Using Non- Management Process 546
Redeployable Assets 497 14A-2 Sources of Sustainable Price
13A-3 Customer Sorting Rules 500 Premiums 548
13A-3a A Role for Sunk Costs in Decision 14A-3 Revenue Management Decisions,
Making 501 Advanced Material 548
13A-3b Perfectly Contestable Markets 502 14A-3a Proactive Price Discrimination 549
13A-3c Brinkmanship and Wars of Attrition 503 14A-3b Capacity Reallocation 550
13A-4 Tactical Insights about Slippery 14A-3c Optimal Overbooking 553
Slopes 505 Summary 556
Summary 506 Exercises 556
Exercises 507
PART V
14 Pricing Techniques and Analysis 508
ORGANIZATIONAL ARCHITECTURE
Chapter Preview 508
AND REGULATION 557
Managerial Challenge: Pricing the
Chevy Volt 508 15 Contracting, Governance, and
14-1 A Conceptual Framework for Proactive, Organizational Form 558
Systematic-Analytical, Value-Based Chapter Preview 558
Pricing 509 Managerial Challenge: Controlling the
What Went Right/What Went Wrong: Vertical: Microsoft WebTV versus
Zerex Anticorrosive Antifreeze 510 Google Fiber 558
14-2 Optimal Differential Price Levels 513 15-1 Introduction 559
14-2a Graphical Approach 513 15-2 The Role of Contracting in
14-2b Algebraic Approach 515 Cooperative Games 560
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xvi Contents
Managerial Challenge: Cap and Trade, What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
Deregulation, and the Coase Technology Licenses Cost Palm Its
Theorem 623 Lead in PDAs 652
16-1 The Regulation of Market Structure What Went Right/What Went Wrong:
and Conduct 624 Motorola: What They Didn’t Know
16-1a Market Performance 625
Hurt Them 653
16-1b Market Conduct 625
16-7b Conclusion on Licensing 653
16-1c Contestable Markets 626
Summary 654
16-2 Antitrust Statutes and Their
Exercises 655
Regulatory Enforcement 627
16-2a The Sherman Act (1890) 627
Case Exercise: Do Luxury Good
16-2b The Clayton Act (1914) 627 Manufacturers Have a Legitimate
16-2c The Robinson-Patman Act (1936) 628 Interest in Minimum Resale Price
16-2d The Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Maintenance: Leegin v. Kay’s Kloset? 657
Improvement Act (1976) 629 Case Exercise: Microsoft Tying
16-3 Antitrust Prohibition of Selected Arrangements 658
Business Decisions 630 Case Exercise: Music Recording Industry
16-3a Collusion: Price Fixing 630 Consolidating 659
16-3b Mergers That Substantially Lessen
Competition 632 17 Long-Term Investment Analysis 660
16-3c Merger Guidelines (2010) 633 Chapter Preview 660
16-3d Monopolization 633 Managerial Challenge: Industrial
16-3e Wholesale Price Discrimination 635
Renaissance in America: Insourcing
16-3f Refusals to Deal 636
16-3g Resale Price Maintenance of GE Appliances 660
Agreements 636 17-1 The Nature of Capital Expenditure
16-4 Command and Control Regulatory Decisions 661
Constraints: An Economic Analysis 637 17-2 A Basic Framework for Capital
16-4a The Deregulation Movement 639 Budgeting 662
What Went Right/What Went Wrong: 17-3 The Capital Budgeting Process 662
The Need for a Regulated 17-3a Generating Capital Investment
Projects 663
Clearinghouse to Control Counterparty 17-3b Estimating Cash Flows 663
Risk at AIG 639 17-3c Evaluating and Choosing the
16-5 Regulation of Externalities 640 Investment Projects to Implement 665
16-5a Coasian Bargaining for Reciprocal
17-4 Estimating the Firm’s Cost of
Externalities 641
16-5b Qualifications of the Coase Theorem 642 Capital 668
16-5c Impediments to Bargaining 643 17-4a Cost of Debt Capital 669
16-5d Resolution of Externalities by 17-4b Cost of Internal Equity Capital 669
Regulatory Directive 644 17-4c Cost of External Equity Capital 671
16-5e Resolution of Externalities by Taxes 17-4d Weighted Cost of Capital 671
and Subsidies 645 17-5 Cost-Benefit Analysis 672
16-5f Resolution of Externalities by Sale of 17-5a Accept-Reject Decisions 673
Pollution Rights: Cap and Trade 647 17-5b Program-Level Analysis 674
16-6 Governmental Protection of Business 647 17-6 Steps in Cost-Benefit Analysis 674
16-6a Licensing and Permitting 647 17-7 Objectives and Constraints in
16-6b Patents 648 Cost-Benefit Analysis 676
16-7 The Optimal Deployment Decision: 17-8 Analysis and Valuation of Benefits
To License or Not 648 and Costs 677
16-7a Pros and Cons of Patent Protection 17-8a Direct Benefits 677
and Licensure of Trade Secrets 649 17-8b Direct Costs 677
What Went Right/What Went Wrong: 17-8c Indirect Costs or Benefits and
Intangibles 677
Delayed Release at Aventis 650
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xviii Contents
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Preface
ORGANIZATION OF THE TEXT
The 14th edition has been thoroughly updated with 45 new applications and dozens of new
figures and tables.
We continue to expand the review of microeconomic fundamentals in Chapters 2 and
3, employing a wide-ranging discussion of the equilibrium price of crude oil and gasoline
as well as the marginal analysis of long-lasting lightbulbs. This new emphasis supports
the use of the book for pre-experience MA in Management and specialized MS programs
in business schools.
The text is structured, like many others, around demand, production, cost and pric-
ing theory in context, but the difference here is the context. We believe students are
motivated to learn analytical tools by first becoming immersed in and motivated by
deep fact situation contexts. Consequently, in each of the first 12 chapters we teach
the students why a new technique is important by first demonstrating what it can be
used to accomplish in business practice. Only then, do we delve into the theory that
applies.
Another distinctive feature of the book is the extensive treatment in Chapter 6 of
global business, import-export trade, exchange rates, free trade areas, and trade policy.
There is more comprehensive material on applied game theory in Chapters 13, 13A, 15,
15A, and the Web Appendix Case Study than in any other managerial economics text-
book. And a unique treatment of revenue (yield) management appears in Chapter 14A.
Part V includes the hot topics of corporate governance, information economics, auction
design, and the choice of organizational architecture. Chapter 16 on Regulation includes
an extensive discussion of market mechanisms for addressing externalities. Chapter 17
now leads off with a capital budgeting decision by GE to return appliance manufacturing
to the United States.
By far the most distinctive feature of the book is its 300 boxed examples, Managerial
Challenges, What Went Right/What Went Wrong explorations of corporate practice,
and mini-case examples on every other page demonstrating what each analytical concept
is used for in practice. This list of concept applications is highlighted on the inside front
and back covers.
STUDENT PREPARATION
The text is designed for use by upper-level undergraduates and first-year graduate stu-
dents in business schools, departments of economics, and professional schools of man-
agement, public policy, and information science as well as in executive training
programs. Students are presumed to have a background in the basic principles of micro-
economics, although Chapter 2 offers an extensive review of those topics. No prior
work in statistics is assumed; development of all the quantitative concepts employed is
self-contained. The book makes occasional use of elementary concepts of differential
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
xix
xx Preface
calculus. In all cases where calculus is employed, at least one alternative approach, such as
graphical, algebraic, or tabular analysis, is also presented. Spreadsheet applications have
become so prominent in the practice of managerial economics that we now address
optimization in that context.
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Preface xxi
ANCILLARY MATERIALS
A complete set of ancillary materials is available to adopters to supplement the text,
including the following:
MindTap
MindTap is an extensive online learning system that includes the ebook, assignments
that bring course concepts to life, supplemental readings, video and discussions ques-
tions, and practice and apply exercises. This cloud-based platform integrates learning
applications (“apps”) into an easy-to-use and easy-to-access tool that supports a person-
alized learning experience. MindTap combines student learning tools—readings, multi-
media, activities and assessments—into a singular Learning Path that guides students
through the course.
PowerPoint Presentation
Available on the product companion Web site, this comprehensive package provides an
excellent lecture aid for instructors. These slides cover many of the most important
topics from the text, and they can be customized by instructors to meet specific course
needs.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
A number of reviewers, users, and colleagues have been particularly helpful in providing
us with many worthwhile comments and suggestions at various stages in the development
of this and earlier editions of the book. Included among these individuals are:
William Beranek, J. Walter Elliott, William J. Kretlow, William Gunther, J. William
Hanlon, Robert Knapp, Robert S. Main, Edward Sussna, Bruce T. Allen, Allen Moran,
Edward Oppermann, Dwight Porter, Robert L. Conn, Allen Parkman, Daniel Slate, Richard
L. Pfister, J. P. Magaddino, Richard A. Stanford, Donald Bumpass, Barry P. Keating, John
Wittman, Sisay Asefa, James R. Ashley, David Bunting, Amy H. Dalton, Richard D. Evans,
Gordon V. Karels, Richard S. Bower, Massoud M. Saghafi, John C. Callahan, Frank Falero,
Ramon Rabinovitch, D. Steinnes, Jay Damon Hobson, Clifford Fry, John Crockett, Marvin
Frankel, James T. Peach, Paul Kozlowski, Dennis Fixler, Steven Crane, Scott L. Smith,
Edward Miller, Fred Kolb, Bill Carson, Jack W. Thornton, Changhee Chae, Robert
B. Dallin, Christopher J. Zappe, Anthony V. Popp, Phillip M. Sisneros, George Brower,
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xxii Preface
Carlos Sevilla, Dean Baim, Charles Callahan, Phillip Robins, Bruce Jaffee, Alwyn du Plessis,
Darly Winn, Gary Shoesmith, Richard J. Ward, William H. Hoyt, Irvin Grossack, William
Simeone, Satyajit Ghosh, David Levy, Simon Hakim, Patricia Sanderson, David P. Ely, Albert
A. O’Kunade, Doug Sharp, Arne Dag Sti, Walker Davidson, David Buschena, George
M. Radakovic, Harpal S. Grewal, Stephen J. Silver, Michael J. O’Hara, Luke M. Froeb, Dean
Waters, Jake Vogelsang, Lynda Y. de la Viña, Audie R. Brewton, Paul M. Hayashi, Lawrence
B. Pulley, Tim Mages, Robert Brooker, Carl Emomoto, Charles Leathers, Marshall Medoff,
Gary Brester, Stephan Gohmann, L. Joe Moffitt, Christopher Erickson, Antoine El Khoury,
Steven Rock, Rajeev K. Goel, Lee S. Redding, Paul J. Hoyt, Bijan Vasigh, Cheryl A. Casper,
Semoon Chang, Kwang Soo Cheong, Barbara M. Fischer, John A. Karikari, Francis
D. Mummery, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Dennis Proffitt, and Steven S. Shwiff.
People who were especially helpful in the preparation of the 14th edition include
Robert F. Brooker, Kristen E. Collett-Schmitt, Simon Medcalfe, Dr. Paul Stock, Shahab
Dabirian, James Leady, Stephen Onyeiwu, and Karl W. Einoff. A special thanks to
B. Ramy Elitzur of Tel Aviv University for suggesting the exercise on designing a manage-
rial incentive contract and to Bob Hebert, Business Librarian at Wake Forest School of
Business, for his tireless pursuit of reference material.
We are also indebted to Wake Forest University and the University of Louisville for the
support they provided and owe thanks to our faculty colleagues for the encouragement and
assistance provided on a continuing basis during the preparation of the manuscript. We wish
to express our appreciation to the members of the Cengage Learning staff for their help in
the preparation and promotion of this book, especially Chris Rader. We are grateful to the
Literary Executor of the late Sir Ronald A. Fisher, F.R.S.; to Dr. Frank Yates, F.R.S.; and to
Longman Group, Ltd., London, for permission to reprint Table III from their book Statistical
Tables for Biological, Agricultural, and Medical Research (6th ed., 1974).
James R. McGuigan
R. Charles Moyer
Frederick H. deB. Harris
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
About the Authors
James R. McGuigan
James R. McGuigan owns and operates his own numismatic investment firm. Prior to this
business, he was Associate Professor of Finance and Business Economics in the School of
Business Administration at Wayne State University. He also taught at the University of
Pittsburgh and Point Park College. McGuigan received his undergraduate degree from
Carnegie Mellon University. He earned an M.B.A. at the Graduate School of Business at
the University of Chicago and his Ph.D. from the University of Pittsburgh. In addition to
his interests in economics, he has coauthored books on financial management.
His research articles on options have been published in the Journal of Financial and
Quantitative Analysis.
R. Charles Moyer
R. Charles Moyer earned his B.A. in Economics from Howard University and his M.B.A.
and Ph.D. in Finance and Managerial Economics from the University of Pittsburgh.
Professor Moyer is Dean Emeritus and Professor of Finance and Entrepreneurship at
the College of Business, University of Louisville. Previously, he was GMAC Chair of
Finance and Dean, Babcock Graduate School of Management, Wake Forest University.
He was also Professor of Finance and Chairman of the Department of Finance at Texas
Tech University. Professor Moyer also has taught at the University of Houston, Lehigh
University, and the University of New Mexico, and spent a year at the Federal Reserve
Bank of Cleveland. Professor Moyer has taught extensively abroad in Germany, France,
and Russia. In addition to this text, Moyer has coauthored two other financial management
texts. He has been published in many leading journals, including Financial Management,
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Finance, Financial Review, Journal
of Financial Research, International Journal of Forecasting, Strategic Management Journal and
Journal of Economics and Business. Professor Moyer is a member of the Board of Directors
of Capitala Finance Corporation, US WorldMeds, and Summit Biosciences.
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xxiii
xxiv About the Authors
His path breaking work on price discovery has been frequently cited in leading academic
journals, and several articles with practitioners have been published in the Journal of
Trading from Institutional Investor Journals. In addition, he often benchmarks the pricing,
order processing, and capacity planning functions of large companies against state-of-the-
art techniques in revenue management and writes about his findings in journals such as
the AMA’s Marketing Management and INFORMS’s Journal of Revenue and Pricing
Management.
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
PART I
Introduction
Firm Value
(Shareholders’ Wealth)
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1
CHAPTER
MANAGERIAL CHALLENGE
How to Achieve Sustainability: Southern Company Electric
Power Generation1
In the second decade of the twenty-first century, compa- downwind hundreds of miles away to trees, painted and
nies all across the industrial landscape are seeking to stone surfaces, and asthmatics. The Clean Air Act
achieve sustainability. Sustainability is a powerful meta- (CAA) of 1990, amended in 1997 and 2003, granted
phor but an elusive goal. It means much more than tradable pollution allowances (TPAs) to known pollu-
aligning oneself with a commitment to environmental ters. The CAA also authorized an auction market for
sensitivity, which tests higher in opinion polling of the these TPA assets. The Environmental Protection Agency
latent preferences of Americans and Europeans than any Web site (www.epa.gov) displays on a daily basis the
other response. Sustainability also implies renewability equilibrium, market-clearing price of these new TPAs
and longevity of business plans that are adaptable to on the balance sheet. Most importantly, the cap-
changing circumstances. But what exactly should man- and-trade system literally identified for the first time a
agement pursue as a set of objectives to achieve this price for the use of what had previously been unpriced
goal? common property resources—namely, acid-free air and
Management response to pollution abatement illus- rainwater. As a result, large point-source polluters like
trates one type of sustainability challenge. At the insis- power plants and steel mills now incur an actual cost
tence of the prime minister of Canada during the Reagan per ton for the SOx and NOx–laden soot by-products
Administration, the U.S. Congress enacted a bipartisan of burning lots of high sulfur coal. These amounts
cap-and-trade bill to address smokestack emissions. Sul- were promptly placed in spreadsheets designed to find
fur dioxide and nitrous oxide (SOx and NOx) emissions ways of minimizing the sum of operating plus pollution
precipitate as acid rain, mist, and ice, imposing damage by-product costs.2 Thereafter, each polluter felt powerful
Cont.
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Chapter 1: Introduction and Goals of the Firm 3
AP Images/Stephen Morton
bought 19,146 allowances for Belews Creek at prices
ranging from $131 to $480 per ton and then in 2003
built two 30-story smokestack scrubbers that reduced
the NOx emissions by 75 percent.
Another major electric utility, Southern Company, ana-
incremental incentives to reduce compliance cost by abat- lyzed three compliance choices on a least-cost cash flow
ing pollution. And an entire industry devoted to develop- basis: (1) buying allowances, (2) installing smokestack
ing pollution abatement technology sprang up. scrubbers, or (3) adopting fuel-switching technology to
The TPAs granted were set at approximately 80 per- burn low-sulfur coal or even cleaner natural gas. In a widely
cent of the known pollution taking place at each plant in studied case, the Southern Company found its huge Bowen
1990. For example, Duke Power’s Belews Creek power plant in North Georgia would require a $657 million scrub-
plant, generating 120,085 tons of nitrous oxide acidic ber that after tax deductions for capital equipment depreci-
soot annually from burning 400 train carloads of coal ation and offsets from excess allowance revenue implied
every day, was granted 96,068 tons of allowances (see a $476 million cost. Alternatively, continuing to burn
FIGURE 1.1 Nitrous Oxide from Coal-Fired Power Plants (Daily Emissions in Tons, pre Clean Air Act)
329 tons
NOx
194
164 Mayo
55 CP&L
13
Buck
Duke 14 Dan Roxboro
44 River CP&L
59 24 17
Asheville 39 Duke 27
Marshall Cape
CP&L Duke Belews
Fear Lee
Riverbend Creek CP&L CP&L
Duke Duke
Cliffside 13 55
Allen
Duke Duke Weatherspoon
CP&L
Sutton
CP&L
Cont.
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4 Part I: Introduction
Example
Capacity Expansion at Honda, N.A., and
Toyota Motors, N.A.
Honda and Toyota are attempting to expand their already substantial assembly opera-
tions in North America. Both companies face increasing demand for their
U.S.-manufactured vehicles, especially Toyota Camrys and Honda Accords. Camrys
and Accords rate extremely highly in consumer reports of durability and reliability.
(continued)
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Chapter 1: Introduction and Goals of the Firm 5
The demand for used Accords is so strong that they depreciate only 45 percent in their
first four years. Other competing vehicles may depreciate as much as 65 percent in the
same period. Toyota and Honda have identified two possible strategies (S1NEW and
S2USED) to meet the growing demand for Camrys and Accords. Strategy S1NEW
involves an internal expansion of capacity at Toyota’s $700 million Princeton, Indiana,
plant and Honda’s Marysville, Ohio, plant. Strategy S2USED involves the purchase and
renovation of assembly plants now owned by General Motors. The new plants will likely
receive substantial public subsidies through reduced property taxes. The older plants
already possess an enormous infrastructure of local suppliers and regulatory relief.
The objective of Toyota’s managers is to maximize the value today (present value)
of the expected future profit from the expansion. This problem can be summarized as
follows:
Objective function: Maximize the present value (P.V.) of profit
(S1NEW, S2USED)
Decision rule: Choose strategy S1NEW if P.V. (Profit S1NEW)
> P.V. (Profit S2USED)
Choose strategy S2USED if the reverse.
they become crises and for selecting strategies to assure the more likely success of the
next business model. Research In Motion built the world’s best international cell phone
(the Blackberry) but missed the market as customer demand evolved to web-enabled
smart phones with 500,000 and then millions of apps. In addition, managers create orga-
nizational structure and culture based on the organization’s mission. Senior management
especially is responsible for establishing a vision of new business directions and setting
stretch goals to get there. In addition, managers coordinate the integration of marketing,
operations, and finance functions. If plant managers don’t know the realized margins
from particular segments targeted by the sales team, then they will often expedite and
fulfill orders to the wrong customers. Finally, managers undertake the critical responsi-
bility of motivating and monitoring teamwork.
If penalties and sanctions are few and far between, only a sense of moral duty induces
full-effort teamwork rather than the reduced effort associated with free-riding.
Consider the following example of the teamwork involved in bringing a product to
market. Mack and Myer are collaborating on a product launch. Each has specialized
skills that are required to achieve the maximum output and a gross profit of $100 if
they each “Pull Hard,” devoting their best effort to the project. In that event, $25 per-
sonal cost for each leaves $25 net profit available to each of them. If either shirks and
reduces effort unilaterally, the output is reduced and gross profit declines by 30 percent
to $70 to be divided between them, but the shirker reduces his or her personal cost to $0,
thereby yielding a $35 net profit to the free rider and only $10 to the dutiful teammate
who Pulled Hard. If both shirk and fail to provide best effort, then output collapses,
gross profit falls to $30, yielding each just $15 net profit. These payoffs are depicted in
the normal form game matrix Figure 1.2, Panel A.
What if this is a one-time-only situation, and each player must decide simultaneously
without knowing the choice of his or her teammate? One of the insights of game theory
is that in the absence of repeated games involving the same teammates, rational players
in such situations will ignore reputation effects and select the action whose payoff dom-
inates all others. In this case, that means each player will choose to Shirk since the $35
outcome exceeds $25, and the $15 outcome exceeds $10. In short, the outcomes from the
action Shirk in the right-hand column dominate those in the Pull Hard column (and so
too in the rows of the payoff matrix). Each team member therefore prefers to defect (by
choosing Shirk), whatever the choice of his or her teammate; Shirk is said to be a domi-
nant strategy. Therefore, {Shirk, Shirk} emerges as a dominant strategy outcome with
great predictability.
But if they both do so, a tragic dilemma arises. In the southeast {Shirk, Shirk} cell, the
payoff to each player is just $15, and total value added is only $30. Both teammates
FIGURE 1.2
Payoffs from Team
Panel A No Supervisor
Production with Mack
and without a
Pull Hard Shirk
Supervisor
Pull Hard
$25 $35
Meyer $25 $10
Shirk
$10 $15
$35 $15
Panel B Supervisor Present. A $10 Manager is Hired as a Monitor of Shirking for which
A $15 Penalty is Imposed.
Mack
Pull Hard Shirk
$20 $15
Pull Hard $20 $5
Meyer
Shirk $5 $–5
$15 $–5
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
8 Part I: Introduction
realize, however, that if they had just found a way to elicit cooperation from one another,
$50 net profit would have been available in the northwest {Pull Hard, Pull Hard} cell.
Their individually optimal decision-making (reflected by the dominant strategy to defect
from cooperative arrangements) leaves $20 foregone profits until the players them-
selves organize their team-making differently. As a result, we might well expect that the
players would evolve mechanisms for contracting around the moral hazard problem in
order to capture the foregone value. How can this be accomplished?
What if the team hired a manager as project supervisor to monitor the teamwork and
punish shirking fairly? Splitting the cost of paying a manager $10 leaves $40 gross profit
in the {Pull Hard, Pull Hard} cell, to be divided evenly between Mack and Meyer. In the
diagonal cells, the manager now penalizes whichever teammate shirks their duty $15.
The payoff for this unilateral defector now becomes ð$70=2 ¼ $35Þ $15 $5 ¼ $15,
less than the ð$100=2 ¼ $50Þ $25 $5 ¼ $20 associated with the cooperative decision
to Pull Hard. And this is a symmetric payoff game, so both players now conclude the
same thing—that is, it pays to adopt mutually cooperative teamwork and deliver full
effort. Since each player will receive only ð$30=2 ¼ $15Þ $15 $5 ¼ $15 in the
event they both shirk their duties, and ð$70=2 ¼ $35Þ $25 $5 ¼ $5 in the event
their Hard Pull is unilaterally defected upon, each decides to Pull Hard. Indeed, examin-
ing the new payoff matrix in Figure 1.2, Panel B the choice pair {Pull Hard, Pull Hard}
has now become the dominant strategy. So, in conclusion, moral hazard in teams can be
avoided. What is needed is a manager as supervisor who imposes sanctions for the shirk-
ing behavior of teammates that decide to free ride.
Managers in a capitalist economy are motivated to monitor teamwork ultimately
because of their overarching goal to maximize returns to the owners of the business—
that is, economic profits.
economic profit The Economic profit is the difference between total sales revenue (price times units sold)
difference between and total economic cost. The economic cost of any activity may be thought of as the
total revenue and total highest valued alternative opportunity that is forgone. To attract labor, capital, intellec-
economic cost. Eco- tual property, land, and matériel, the firm must offer to pay a price that is sufficient to
nomic cost includes a convince the owners of these resources to forego other alternative activities and commit
“normal” rate of return
their resources to this use. Thus, economic costs should always be thought of as oppor-
on the capital contri-
butions of the firm’s
tunity costs—that is, the costs of attracting a resource such as investment capital from its
partners. next best alternative use.
The risk-bearing theory of profits is explained in the context of normal profits, where
normal is defined in terms of the relative risk of alternative investments. Normal profits
for a high-risk firm, such as Las Vegas hotels and casinos, a biotech pharmaceutical
company, or an oil field exploration well operator, should be higher than normal profits
for firms of lesser risk, such as water utilities. For example, in 2005, the industry average
return on net worth for the casino hotel/gaming industry was 12.6 percent, compared to
9 percent for the water utility industry.
I see increasing reason to believe that the view formed some time
back as to the origin of the Makonde bush is the correct one. I have
no doubt that it is not a natural product, but the result of human
occupation. Those parts of the high country where man—as a very
slight amount of practice enables the eye to perceive at once—has not
yet penetrated with axe and hoe, are still occupied by a splendid
timber forest quite able to sustain a comparison with our mixed
forests in Germany. But wherever man has once built his hut or tilled
his field, this horrible bush springs up. Every phase of this process
may be seen in the course of a couple of hours’ walk along the main
road. From the bush to right or left, one hears the sound of the axe—
not from one spot only, but from several directions at once. A few
steps further on, we can see what is taking place. The brush has been
cut down and piled up in heaps to the height of a yard or more,
between which the trunks of the large trees stand up like the last
pillars of a magnificent ruined building. These, too, present a
melancholy spectacle: the destructive Makonde have ringed them—
cut a broad strip of bark all round to ensure their dying off—and also
piled up pyramids of brush round them. Father and son, mother and
son-in-law, are chopping away perseveringly in the background—too
busy, almost, to look round at the white stranger, who usually excites
so much interest. If you pass by the same place a week later, the piles
of brushwood have disappeared and a thick layer of ashes has taken
the place of the green forest. The large trees stretch their
smouldering trunks and branches in dumb accusation to heaven—if
they have not already fallen and been more or less reduced to ashes,
perhaps only showing as a white stripe on the dark ground.
This work of destruction is carried out by the Makonde alike on the
virgin forest and on the bush which has sprung up on sites already
cultivated and deserted. In the second case they are saved the trouble
of burning the large trees, these being entirely absent in the
secondary bush.
After burning this piece of forest ground and loosening it with the
hoe, the native sows his corn and plants his vegetables. All over the
country, he goes in for bed-culture, which requires, and, in fact,
receives, the most careful attention. Weeds are nowhere tolerated in
the south of German East Africa. The crops may fail on the plains,
where droughts are frequent, but never on the plateau with its
abundant rains and heavy dews. Its fortunate inhabitants even have
the satisfaction of seeing the proud Wayao and Wamakua working
for them as labourers, driven by hunger to serve where they were
accustomed to rule.
But the light, sandy soil is soon exhausted, and would yield no
harvest the second year if cultivated twice running. This fact has
been familiar to the native for ages; consequently he provides in
time, and, while his crop is growing, prepares the next plot with axe
and firebrand. Next year he plants this with his various crops and
lets the first piece lie fallow. For a short time it remains waste and
desolate; then nature steps in to repair the destruction wrought by
man; a thousand new growths spring out of the exhausted soil, and
even the old stumps put forth fresh shoots. Next year the new growth
is up to one’s knees, and in a few years more it is that terrible,
impenetrable bush, which maintains its position till the black
occupier of the land has made the round of all the available sites and
come back to his starting point.
The Makonde are, body and soul, so to speak, one with this bush.
According to my Yao informants, indeed, their name means nothing
else but “bush people.” Their own tradition says that they have been
settled up here for a very long time, but to my surprise they laid great
stress on an original immigration. Their old homes were in the
south-east, near Mikindani and the mouth of the Rovuma, whence
their peaceful forefathers were driven by the continual raids of the
Sakalavas from Madagascar and the warlike Shirazis[47] of the coast,
to take refuge on the almost inaccessible plateau. I have studied
African ethnology for twenty years, but the fact that changes of
population in this apparently quiet and peaceable corner of the earth
could have been occasioned by outside enterprises taking place on
the high seas, was completely new to me. It is, no doubt, however,
correct.
The charming tribal legend of the Makonde—besides informing us
of other interesting matters—explains why they have to live in the
thickest of the bush and a long way from the edge of the plateau,
instead of making their permanent homes beside the purling brooks
and springs of the low country.
“The place where the tribe originated is Mahuta, on the southern
side of the plateau towards the Rovuma, where of old time there was
nothing but thick bush. Out of this bush came a man who never
washed himself or shaved his head, and who ate and drank but little.
He went out and made a human figure from the wood of a tree
growing in the open country, which he took home to his abode in the
bush and there set it upright. In the night this image came to life and
was a woman. The man and woman went down together to the
Rovuma to wash themselves. Here the woman gave birth to a still-
born child. They left that place and passed over the high land into the
valley of the Mbemkuru, where the woman had another child, which
was also born dead. Then they returned to the high bush country of
Mahuta, where the third child was born, which lived and grew up. In
course of time, the couple had many more children, and called
themselves Wamatanda. These were the ancestral stock of the
Makonde, also called Wamakonde,[48] i.e., aborigines. Their
forefather, the man from the bush, gave his children the command to
bury their dead upright, in memory of the mother of their race who
was cut out of wood and awoke to life when standing upright. He also
warned them against settling in the valleys and near large streams,
for sickness and death dwelt there. They were to make it a rule to
have their huts at least an hour’s walk from the nearest watering-
place; then their children would thrive and escape illness.”
The explanation of the name Makonde given by my informants is
somewhat different from that contained in the above legend, which I
extract from a little book (small, but packed with information), by
Pater Adams, entitled Lindi und sein Hinterland. Otherwise, my
results agree exactly with the statements of the legend. Washing?
Hapana—there is no such thing. Why should they do so? As it is, the
supply of water scarcely suffices for cooking and drinking; other
people do not wash, so why should the Makonde distinguish himself
by such needless eccentricity? As for shaving the head, the short,
woolly crop scarcely needs it,[49] so the second ancestral precept is
likewise easy enough to follow. Beyond this, however, there is
nothing ridiculous in the ancestor’s advice. I have obtained from
various local artists a fairly large number of figures carved in wood,
ranging from fifteen to twenty-three inches in height, and
representing women belonging to the great group of the Mavia,
Makonde, and Matambwe tribes. The carving is remarkably well
done and renders the female type with great accuracy, especially the
keloid ornamentation, to be described later on. As to the object and
meaning of their works the sculptors either could or (more probably)
would tell me nothing, and I was forced to content myself with the
scanty information vouchsafed by one man, who said that the figures
were merely intended to represent the nembo—the artificial
deformations of pelele, ear-discs, and keloids. The legend recorded
by Pater Adams places these figures in a new light. They must surely
be more than mere dolls; and we may even venture to assume that
they are—though the majority of present-day Makonde are probably
unaware of the fact—representations of the tribal ancestress.
The references in the legend to the descent from Mahuta to the
Rovuma, and to a journey across the highlands into the Mbekuru
valley, undoubtedly indicate the previous history of the tribe, the
travels of the ancestral pair typifying the migrations of their
descendants. The descent to the neighbouring Rovuma valley, with
its extraordinary fertility and great abundance of game, is intelligible
at a glance—but the crossing of the Lukuledi depression, the ascent
to the Rondo Plateau and the descent to the Mbemkuru, also lie
within the bounds of probability, for all these districts have exactly
the same character as the extreme south. Now, however, comes a
point of especial interest for our bacteriological age. The primitive
Makonde did not enjoy their lives in the marshy river-valleys.
Disease raged among them, and many died. It was only after they
had returned to their original home near Mahuta, that the health
conditions of these people improved. We are very apt to think of the
African as a stupid person whose ignorance of nature is only equalled
by his fear of it, and who looks on all mishaps as caused by evil
spirits and malignant natural powers. It is much more correct to
assume in this case that the people very early learnt to distinguish
districts infested with malaria from those where it is absent.
This knowledge is crystallized in the
ancestral warning against settling in the
valleys and near the great waters, the
dwelling-places of disease and death. At the
same time, for security against the hostile
Mavia south of the Rovuma, it was enacted
that every settlement must be not less than a
certain distance from the southern edge of the
plateau. Such in fact is their mode of life at the
present day. It is not such a bad one, and
certainly they are both safer and more
comfortable than the Makua, the recent
intruders from the south, who have made USUAL METHOD OF
good their footing on the western edge of the CLOSING HUT-DOOR
plateau, extending over a fairly wide belt of
country. Neither Makua nor Makonde show in their dwellings
anything of the size and comeliness of the Yao houses in the plain,
especially at Masasi, Chingulungulu and Zuza’s. Jumbe Chauro, a
Makonde hamlet not far from Newala, on the road to Mahuta, is the
most important settlement of the tribe I have yet seen, and has fairly
spacious huts. But how slovenly is their construction compared with
the palatial residences of the elephant-hunters living in the plain.
The roofs are still more untidy than in the general run of huts during
the dry season, the walls show here and there the scanty beginnings
or the lamentable remains of the mud plastering, and the interior is a
veritable dog-kennel; dirt, dust and disorder everywhere. A few huts
only show any attempt at division into rooms, and this consists
merely of very roughly-made bamboo partitions. In one point alone
have I noticed any indication of progress—in the method of fastening
the door. Houses all over the south are secured in a simple but
ingenious manner. The door consists of a set of stout pieces of wood
or bamboo, tied with bark-string to two cross-pieces, and moving in
two grooves round one of the door-posts, so as to open inwards. If
the owner wishes to leave home, he takes two logs as thick as a man’s
upper arm and about a yard long. One of these is placed obliquely
against the middle of the door from the inside, so as to form an angle
of from 60° to 75° with the ground. He then places the second piece
horizontally across the first, pressing it downward with all his might.
It is kept in place by two strong posts planted in the ground a few
inches inside the door. This fastening is absolutely safe, but of course
cannot be applied to both doors at once, otherwise how could the
owner leave or enter his house? I have not yet succeeded in finding
out how the back door is fastened.