The Conditions of Agricultural Growth The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure Ester Boserup With a new introduction by Virginia Deane Abernethy and a foreword by Nicholas Kaldor \4 ALDINETRANSACTION GBs _4 Division of Transaction Publishers == New Brunswick (U.S.A) and London (U.K.)INTRODUCTION Ever since economists have taken an interest in the secular trends of hhuman societies, they have had to face the problem of the inter- relationship between population growth and food production. There are two fundamentally different ways of approaching this problem. On the one hand, we may want to know how changes in agricultural conditions affect the demographic situation. And, conversely, one may inquire about the effects of population change upon agriculture, To ask the frst of these two questions is to adopt the approach of Malthus and his more or less faithful followers, Their reasoning is based upon the belief that the supply of food for the human race is inherently inelastic, and that this lack of elasticity is the main factor governing the rate of population growth. Thus, population growth is seen as the dependent variable, determined by preceding changes in agricultural productivity which, in their turn, are explained as the result of extraneous factors, such as the fortuitous factor of technical invention and imitation. In other words, for those who view the relationship between agriculture and population in this essentially Malthusian perspective there is at any given time in any given com- munity a warranted rate of population increase with which the actual growth of population tends to conform. ‘The approach of the present study is the opposite one. It is based throughout upon the assumption—which the author believes to be the more realistic and fruitful one—that the main line of causation is in the opposite direction: population growth is here regarded as the independent variable which in its turn is a major factor determining agricultural developments, ‘Actual events in the present period should go some way to make this change of perspective acceptable. Few observers would like to suggest that the tremendous increase in rates of population growth Witnessed throughout the underdeveloped world in the two post-war decades could be explained as the result of changes in the conditions for food production. It is reasonably clear that the population ex- plosion is a change in basic conditions which must be regarded as autonomous, in the sense that the explanation is to be sought, not in improved conditions of food production, but in medical invention uTHE CONDITIONS OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTH and some other factors which the student of agricultural development would regard as independent variables. "The burden of the present study is, then, to show that this line of causation, where agricultural developments are caused by population trends rather than the other way round, is the dominant one, not only in the special and obvious case of the two decades since 1945, but in agricultural development generally. ‘The author hopes to have shown that this approach is conducive to a fuller understanding of the actual historical course of agriculture, including the development of patterns and techniques of cultivation as well as the social structures of agrarian communities. The fact that attention was mainly focused on food production as a limiting factor for population growth—in accordance with Malthus’ main doctrine—did not prevent economists also paying attention to the question of how population growth, in its turn, affects agricultural production. Indeed, the theory of rent as deve- oped by the classical economists was one part of the answer to this question: what happens to food production when population in- Greases? However, the particular way in which this problem was tackled by the classical economists was determined by somewhat special conditions for agriculture in the Western Hemisphere in their time and this resulted in an over-simplified account of the changes in agricultural patterns that are brought about by the pressure of population growth. This point is of crucial importance for everything. that follows in the present study, and some further explanation must be offered already at this stage. ‘The classical economists were writing at a time when the almost empty lands of the Western Hemisphere were gradually taken under cultivation by European settlers, and it was therefore natural that they should stress the importance of the reserves of virgin land and make a sharp distinction between two different ways to raise agricul tural output: the expansion of production at the so-called extensive margin, by the creation of new fields, and the expansion of pro- duction by more intensive cultivation of existing fields. This over-simplified conception of agricultural expansion has lingered on in economic literature, and even today it is this type of analysis that is usually offered when problems of underdeveloped countries are discussed. Why this approach is unsuitable for general theory of agricultural development is most easily understood irit is remembered that many types of primitive agriculture make no tse of permanent fields, but shift cultivation from plot to plot. This fact, which seems to have been ignored by classical economists, is fundamental for our problem, for it follows from it that in primitive 12CULTURAL GROWTH ent of agricultural development ‘then, to show that this line of ments are caused by population und, is the dominant one, not of the two decades since 1945, ally, The author hopes to have ‘toa fuller understanding of the . including the development of as well as the social structures / focused on food production / growth—in accordance with revent economists also paying opulation growth, in its turn, ed, the theory of rent as deve- : one part of the answer to this oduction when population in- ay in which this problem was ‘was determined by somewhat he Western Hemisphere in their ified account of the changes in ght about by the pressure of cial importance for everything some further explanation must ting at a time when the almost ere were gradually taken under d it was therefore natural that the reserves of virgin land and ) different ways to raise agricul- jetion at the so-called extensive ds, and the expansion of pro- n of existing fields. of agricultural expansion has nd even today it is this type of n problems of underdeveloped approach is unsuitable for a pment is most easily understood of primitive agriculture makeno tivation from plot to plot. This ored by classical economists, is follows from it that in primitive Intropuction types of agriculture there is no sharp distinction between cultivated PF uncultivated land, and that it is impossible, likewise, to distin guish clearly between the creation of new fields and the change of methods in existing fields. “This study attempts to draw the full conclusion from this insight, “The very distinction between fields and uncultivated land is discarded and instead emphasis is placed on the frequency with which the lund is cropped. In other words, it is suggested that we consider a continuum of types of land use ranging from the extreme case of truly sirgin land, ic. land which is never cropped, through land cropped at Shorter and shorter intervals, to that part of the territory in which a rop is sown as soon as the previous one has been harvested. Its the fntention by this new approach to provide the framework for a dynamic analysis embracing all types of primitive agriculture, those ‘which proceed by cropping a plot a single time after which it is left Tallow for a generation or more, as well as types of agriculture with ‘Continuous cropping of virtually the whole area several times a year. ‘Once the time-honoured distinction between cultivated and un- cultivated land is replaced by the concept of frequency of cropping, the economic theory of agricultural development becomes com: patible with the theories of changing landscape propounded by Patural scientists. The fathers of the traditional economic theory—in agreement with the natural scientists of their own time—regarded as immutable natural conditions many features which scientists now consider to be man-made and, in particular, the distinction between aturally fertile Iand and less fertile land was considered a crucial clement in the explanation of agricultural change. By contrast, when the analysis is based upon the concept of frequency of cropping, there can be no temptation to regard soil fertility exclusively as a gift of nature, bestowed upon certain lands ‘once and for all. Thus, soil fertility, instead of being treated as an exogenous of even unchangeable ‘initial condition’ of the analysis, takes its place asa variable, closely associated with changesin popula- tion density and related changes in agricultural methods. ‘One of the disadvantages of the usual type of analysis is that it leads to a one-sided conception of the agricultural enterprise. ‘Attention is likely to be focused upon what happens in the cultivated field, as distinguished from the whole group of activities that are needed in a given system of agriculture. Undue importance is often attached to the number of times the fields are ploughed or weeded While the changes which take place in the area classified as ‘un- Cultivated land” tend to be overlooked. When attention is instead Focused on the frequency with which the different parts of the area belonging to a given holding, village or tribal area is eropped, an 13‘Tae CONDITIONS OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTH important fact springs to the eye: most or all of the land added to the sown area as population increases in a given territory was used already, as fallow land, pasture, hunting ground, or otherwise. It follows that when a given area of land comes to be cropped more frequently than before, the purposes for which it was hitherto used ‘must be taken care of in a new way, and this may create additional activities for which new tools and other investment are required. Thus, the new approach to agricultural development which is signalled by the concept of frequency of cropping draws the attention to the effects upon agricultural technology which are likely to result from population changes. This is in sharp contrast to the usual approach which takes agricultural technology as a largely autono- mous factor in relation to population changes. It is an essential problem in the economics of population changes to find out how such changes are likely to affect investment and it is generally agreed that the degree of security of tenure for the cultiva- tor is one of the important determinants of investment. One of the advantages of the concept of frequency of cropping, as suggested in the present study, is that it makes it possible to bring fallow land, pastures and animal husbandry within the purview of the analysis, and thus to appreciate the close relationship between changes in technical and economic factors on one hand and changes in land tenure on the other. In short, this new approach enables us to treat land tenure as an endogenous factor, with the result that arbitrary or unrealistic assumptions about tenure can be avoided in the analysis of investment problems. The neo-Malthusian school has resuscitated the old idea that Population growth must be regarded as a variable dependent mainly on agricultural output. I have reached the conclusion, to be sub- stantiated in the following chapters, that in many cases the output from a given area of land responds far more generously to an additional input of labour than assumed by neo-Malthusian authors. If this is true, the low rates of population growth found (until recently) in pre-industrial communities cannot be explained as the result of insufficient food supplies due to overpopulation, and we must leave more room for other factors in the explanation of demo- graphic trends. It is outside the scope of the present study, however, to discuss these other factors—medical, biological, political, ete.— which may help to explain why the rate of growth of population in primitive communities was what it was. Throughout, our inquiry is concerned with the effects of population changes on agriculture and not with the causes of these population changes. 14 TH The In la Asia ulti othe most Betw itis culti unde degr simy ing iner lane yea sutl off of f fore prit cult sho cov of side tor per