Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Guide
HIGHLIGHTING THE
MATCHUPS FOR EVERY
COLLEGE AND PRO
FOOTBALL GAME ALL
SEASON LONG
FEATURING
• Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings
• Team and matchup trends
• Key game statistics
• Full schedule and results from the season
NFL Week 18
CFP National Championship
January 7-9, 2023
STRENGTH
Strength Ratings
RATINGS
Tutorial
Here is an explanation of each of the
three Strength Ratings offered each
The Power Ratings (PR) are my own SU:1-2-1 • ATS:1-3 SU:2-2 • ATS:1-3
manually adjusted ratings updated after
every game based upon analysis of live HO
action and box scores. The Power Rating
line is reflective of each team’s rating
DENVER (-3.5 • 43.5) RO
and factors in home-field advantage OCTOBER 6, 2022 8:15 PM ET ON PRIME • EMPOWER FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER,CO)
as well as any injury or situational
adjustments.
he
strength rating comparison •
The Effective Strength Ratings POWER RATING
(EffStr or ES) are purely statistical RATING LINE EDGE LINE LINE EDGE RATING
ratings, using the teams’ key stats 22.5 -3.1 24
against schedule strength and their
previous opponents’ averages. These EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATING
are also adjusted for any key injuries the RATING LINE EDGE LINE LINE EDGE RATING
to
team had endured or faced against.
17.6 -3.2 20.8 •
UNDER TOTAL EDGE TOTAL OVER TOTAL EDGE
•
The Bettors Ratings (BtrRtg) are a
quantified interpretation of how bettors 38.3
perceive teams based upon how lines of
recent games have moved and closed. BETTOR RATING
•
•
RATING LINE EDGE LINE LINE EDGE RATING
Some important points: 22.4 0.7 21.7
1) On injuries situations where a key
line move player is listed as doubtful or UNDER TOTAL EDGE TOTAL OVER TOTAL EDGE
out, I have already built the adjustments 44
into the ratings. Where the player is
questionable or probable, I have not, so key statistics
if that player ends up missing then the 2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING
reader needs to account for those on their own. INDIANAPOLIS 14.2 20 25-88 [3.5] 38-25-252 [6.5] 23.9 21.2 20 29-89 [3.1] 31
DENVER 16.5 16 26-109 [4.2] 33-20-226 [6.9] 20.3 17.0 18 23-114 [4.9] 32
2) Each morning I do go back and make postgame adjustments to the ratings based upon results, closing lines, and injuries for the purpose of future numbers.
schedule and results
3) Point spread projections (proj) are built for the home team.
DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT
9/11a point
4) If there is a difference of 3 points or more between at HOUSTON
spread generated by the Rating - 7 vs. 46 20-20 line, we Lhave Umarked
the actual 9/12the at SEATTLE
game with a green dot.
9/18 at JACKSONVILLE -3 43.5 0-24 L L U 9/18 VS HOUSTON
9/25 VS KANSAS CITY +5 51 20-17 W W U 9/25 VS SAN FRANCISCO
In general, the best practice is to use the ratings and scores
10/2 VS(scr) as a basis of where to expect
TENNESSEE - 4.5the43 lines 17-24
to be whenL they
L come
U out
10/2and/or they
at LAS close. While
VEGAS
I stand behind the Strength Ratings’ for their quality, validity,
10/6 and the methods by which each
at DENVER + 3.5is built,
43.5 tracking the records against 10/6the actual lines is the only
VS INDIANAPOLIS
way to verify the success rates of each. 10/16 VS JACKSONVILLE 10/17 at LA CHARGERS
10/23 at TENNESSEE 10/23 VS NY JETS
10/30 VS WASHINGTON 10/30 ** JACKSONVILLE
Over the course of a day or week, the lines for some games will change. Unless a player is out, the ratings only change on a day to day basis based on
11/6 at NEW ENGLAND 11/13 at TENNESSEE
games played. I personally update the ratings daily, but obviously
11/13 at LAS VEGAS
for uses in the VSiN Pro Matchup Guide, I cannot present the daily changes. It is in
11/20 VS LAS VEGAS
“overadjustments” by oddsmakers daily that a lot of valueVS
11/20 can be found.
PHILADELPHIA 11/27 at CAROLINA
11/28 VS PITTSBURGH 12/4 at BALTIMORE
12/4 at DALLAS 12/11 VS KANSAS CITY
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
TENNESSEE 17.6 16 28-124 [4.4] 27-17-172 [6.4] 16.8 21.2 20 23-80 [3.4] 40-26-279 [7.0] 16.9 -2 -3.6
JACKSONVILLE 24 21 27-131 [4.8] 35-23-235 [6.7] 15.2 20.9 21 27-113 [4.2] 36-23-243 [6.8] 17 4 3.1
game outlook
The Titans were 7-3, winners in seven of eight games, heading into Thanksgiving and looked like a runaway to repeat as AFC South champions. Then
regression came and injuries started to pile up. In fact, the Titans have placed a league-high 34 players on injured reserve this season (Denver is second with
27). The 23 players currently on IR for Tennessee represent nearly half the team’s salary cap.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville has remained relatively healthy, placing a league-low seven players on IR.
Nevertheless, we have a good, old-fashioned “loser leaves town” match for the AFC South title on Saturday night. The Jaguars, winners of five of their last six,
are ahead of schedule in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. This time last year, Jacksonville was 2-14 and locked into the No. 1 pick in the 2022
NFL Draft after a disastrous season under Urban Meyer. In one season, there has clearly been a culture change with this organization.
The offense, ranked ninth in DVOA, is clearly ahead of the defense, ranked 27th in DVOA (29th in Pass DVOA), in Jacksonville. Pederson has been a godsend
for Trevor Lawrence as the second-year quarterback has a 14-2 TD-INT ratio in his last eight starts.
Tennessee’s quarterback situation is far less stable as Joshua Dobbs, who was on the Lions’ practice squad, will make his second start of the season in place of the
injured Ryan Tannehill and ineffective rookie Malik Willis. Derrick Henry, along with a few starters on defense, were held out of last week’s 27-13 loss to Dallas.
The Jaguars defeated the Titans 36-22 in Week 14 as a 3-point underdogs but now find themselves as 6.5-point favorites and have all the pressure on them.
Expectations have clearly changed from beginning a rebuild process to being 60 minutes away from hosting a playoff game.
The line has not moved much with some injury uncertainty on the Tennessee side. If the number reaches 7, expect the Titans to receive some buyback as Mike
Vrabel is back in his most profitable role as a road underdog (15-10-1 ATS and 12-6 ATS at more than 3 points). — Wes Reynolds
(465) KANSAS CITY (466) LAS VEGAS MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
KANSAS CITY 29.1 24 24-113 [4.6] 39-26-305 [7.8] 14.4 22.2 20 25-108 [4.4] 36-24-223 [6.1] 14.9 -5 6.9
LAS VEGAS 23.9 20 25-122 [4.9] 34-21-235 [6.8] 14.9 24.2 21 27-120 [4.4] 35-24-247 [7.0] 15.2 -6 -0.3
game outlook
Despite losing to Buffalo and Cincinnati, the Chiefs hold the AFC’s No. 1 seed for now, so they will be playing for something in Las Vegas. In addition, Patrick
Mahomes is close to finishing his campaign for league MVP.
Still, while Kansas City is 9-1 in its past 10 games, it’s not a dominant team that is crushing the opposition. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games,
failing to cover twice against the Broncos. Mahomes passed for 328 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-24 victory over Denver in Week 17, when the Kansas
City defense had a surprisingly difficult time containing Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson.
Blowing double-digit leads has become a routine for the Raiders, who went up 17-0 in the second quarter when these teams met in Kansas City in October.
Mahomes rallied with four touchdown passes and the Chiefs escaped with a 30-29 win. The Las Vegas offense has a different look this time around, with
Jarrett Stidham starting at quarterback instead of Derek Carr.
Stidham was outstanding in his first start, passing for 365 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-34 overtime loss to San Francisco. The Raiders piled up 500
yards against the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense. Carr’s close friend Davante Adams, who had seven receptions for 153 yards and two scores, resurfaced with
a big game and praised Stidham. It was obvious that coach Josh McDaniels felt comfortable getting more aggressive with the play calling for Stidham. Is
Stidham a one-week wonder? It’s too early to anoint him the Raiders’ quarterback of the future, but he solidified his case to be the backup to Tom Brady or
another veteran next season.
The Kansas City run defense is a weakness that can be exploited, as Las Vegas’ Josh Jacobs did by carrying the ball 21 times for 154 yards in the teams’
first meeting. Jacobs is the league’s rushing leader with 1,608 yards — he has a 160-yard lead on the No. 2 running back — and McDaniels will feed him the
ball often in the season finale. Although eliminated from playoff contention, the Raiders are not playing like dead dogs. The Chiefs deserve to be 7.5-point
favorites, but eating the K.C. chalk has been hazardous to the bettors’ health. — Matt Youmans
(451) LA RAMS (452) SEATTLE MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
LA RAMS 18.2 17 24-95 [4.0] 32-21-187 [5.9] 15.5 22.8 19 26-110 [4.2] 33-22-227 [6.9] 14.8 -2 -4.6
SEATTLE 24.2 20 24-115 [4.7] 34-24-233 [6.9] 14.4 24.1 21 31-150 [4.8] 33-21-217 [6.7] 15.2 3 0.1
game outlook
The Seahawks need a win to keep their NFC wild-card hopes alive. They would also need the Lions to beat the Packers in the Sunday night game.
Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite, but let the bettor beware that just because a team must win doesn’t mean it will win. Besides, we’ve said for years that if a team
is in a must-win situation, it usually means they’re not very good and often shouldn’t be trusted to “flip the switch” to win just because they want to.
The Seahawks haven’t lived up to expectations when favored anyway as they’re just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, including beating these same Rams 27-24 in Week
13 but not covering as 6.5-point road favorites.
The Seahawks’ defense is ranked No. 27 in yards allowed per game, so that’s another reason not to lay the points. Granted, the Rams’ offense is only No. 31
in yards per game, but even though they only scored 10 points Sunday against the Chargers, they ran over a much better defense in the Broncos in a 51-14
rout on Christmas Day.
The Over/Under has been set at 41.5 points and seems low considering the preceding stats, plus the Seahawks’ offense averages 24.3 points per game and
going against a depleted Rams defense. — Dave Tuley
(453) NY GIANTS (454) PHILADELPHIA MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
NY GIANTS 21.8 21 31-149 [4.8] 30-20-188 [6.3] 15.5 21.8 22 27-145 [5.3] 33-21-214 [6.4] 16.5 2 0
PHILADELPHIA 28.4 23 32-148 [4.7] 31-21-244 [7.8] 13.8 20.5 19 27-121 [4.6] 32-20-181 [5.6] 14.7 9 7.9
game outlook
Giants coach Brian Daboll did not immediately reveal his plan for Week 18. With his team locked in as the No. 6 seed in the NFC, will Daboll rest several
starters in Philadelphia? The line is revealing the likely answer because the Eagles are 14-point favorites, up from the lookahead line of -3 before last
weekend’s results.
Philadelphia, off back-to-back losses, is playing for the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. It would seem wise for Daboll to rest quarterback Daniel Jones and
running back Saquon Barkley, who has played 80% of the Giants’ offensive snaps in 16 games. Jones has earned some time off, too. He passed for 177
yards and two touchdowns and ran for 91 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-10 win over Indianapolis. Tyrod Taylor is New York’s backup quarterback.
While the Giants don’t want to lay down and allow the Eagles a free pass to the top seed, Daboll must do what’s best for his playoff-bound team.
Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts seems probable to play after missing two games with a sprained right shoulder. In Gardner Minshew’s second start,
the Eagles were shut out in the first half for the first time this season and held to a season low in points in a 20-10 loss to New Orleans. After the game,
Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni said, “If Jalen’s able to go, he’ll go.” Hurts could get a last chance to state his MVP case. His value to the offense became
more obvious after the Eagles’ poor performance against the Saints.
Hurts accounted for 294 yards (217 passing, 77 rushing) and three touchdowns in the Eagles’ 48-22 win at New York on Dec. 11. Taylor appeared in
relief in that game and played well, completing all five of his passes for 47 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 40 yards. If it’s Hurts, who’s not fully
healthy, against Taylor, laying 14 points with Philadelphia still is a lot to ask. But a lot depends on Daboll’s plan and how many starters might be sitting
out. — Matt Youmans
(455) NY JETS (456) MIAMI MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
NY JETS 18.1 18 24-103 [4.3] 37-21-223 [6.0] 18 19.1 18 29-119 [4.1] 33-20-192 [5.9] 16.3 -7 -1
MIAMI 24.1 20 22-95 [4.3] 35-22-273 [7.9] 15.3 24.6 20 25-107 [4.3] 37-25-240 [6.5] 14.1 -7 -0.5
game outlook
The Jets (7-9) have been relegated to the spoiler role after a once-promising season has unraveled with a five-game losing streak. The Dolphins have also lost
five straight and need to win and a Bills win against the Patriots to reach the playoffs.
The Dolphins could be without Tua Tagovailoa (concussion protocol) and backup Teddy Bridgewater (broken pinkie on his throwing hand) and have to rely
on third-stringer Skylar Thompson, who is 0-1 as a starter. The Dolphins have the No. 6 offense in the league with plenty of weapons but haven’t been as
explosive when Tagovailoa has been out of the lineup.
The Jets have mostly relied on their No. 3 defense, which allows just 19.1 points per game, but the problem is the offense has averaged a mere 12 points per
game during their losing streak and an even worse 9.5 points per game in the last four games.
The Dolphins opened around 4-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon with other books opening at 3, but it was down to -1 at
DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon with several books going to pick-’em. The Over/Under opened as high as 42 points and has steadily been bet downward
to 38.5. — Dave Tuley
(459) DETROIT (460) GREEN BAY MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
DETROIT 27.1 22 28-130 [4.6] 35-22-254 [7.3] 14.2 25.7 22 28-149 [5.3] 33-21-249 [7.5] 15.5 5 1.4
GREEN BAY 22.1 20 27-126 [4.7] 33-22-215 [6.4] 15.4 21.9 19 28-142 [5.0] 28-18-196 [7.0] 15.4 4 0.2
game outlook
The Packers (8-8) have somehow rallied from a 4-8 record to win four straight games and take control of their playoff destiny. They just need to beat the
Lions in the Sunday night regular-season finale at Lambeau Field. The Lions (8-8) need the Seahawks to lose to the Rams earlier in the afternoon or they’ll be
eliminated before taking the field.
Green Bay still is a middle-of-the-pack team with the No. 16 offense and No. 18 defense, but Aaron Rodgers and the offense have picked things up by
averaging 29.8 points per game down the stretch during their winning streak while the defense has allowed only 17 points per game.
Despite the same records, the Lions have looked like the better team most of the season. While the Packers have made an impressive turnaround, the Lions
were 1-6 before they beat the Packers 15-9 in Week 9. Jared Goff leads the league’s No. 4 offense at 383.6 yards and 27.1 points per game, but the defense
ranks last at No. 32.
This line has been a pretty solid Packers -4.5 at DraftKings and most other sportsbooks early in the week. It’ll probably be taken off the betting boards during
the Seahawks game. — Dave Tuley
(461) CLEVELAND (462) PITTSBURGH MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
CLEVELAND 21.7 21 32-147 [4.6] 32-20-204 [6.4] 16.2 22.1 19 28-134 [4.8] 31-19-197 [6.4] 15 0 -0.4
PITTSBURGH 17.5 20 29-121 [4.2] 34-22-201 [5.9] 18.4 20.8 18 26-106 [4.1] 32-20-225 [7.0] 15.9 3 -3.3
game outlook
Bud Carson and Chuck Noll. Those were the head coaches the last time the Browns finished a season with a better record than the Steelers. The year was
1990 and Cleveland went 9-6-1 to Pittsburgh’s 9-7 record. This week, the Browns cannot finish higher than the Steelers, but they can play spoiler to a couple
of Pittsburgh’s goals.
If Cleveland wins, it will mark the first time that Mike Tomlin has had a losing season as Steelers head coach, a run that dates back to 2007 and is one of the
most impressive active streaks in the NFL. The Browns would also guarantee that the Steelers miss the playoffs. Losses by the Patriots (Bills) and Dolphins (Jets)
would open the door for Pittsburgh to sneak in at 9-8.
Both starting quarterbacks showed some big flashes of potential in the second halves of their respective games last week. Deshaun Watson had another ugly
first half, but the Browns scored 21 second-half points on three Watson passing touchdowns. He had only nine completions, but they went for 169 yards with
some explosive plays to Amari Cooper. The Browns also got Nick Chubb over the century mark for the first time in five games.
The Steelers came from behind to beat the Ravens and keep their playoff hopes alive. Kenny Pickett led an 11-play, 80-yard drive in the final five minutes of
the fourth quarter and capped it with a 10-yard touchdown pass to Najee Harris. Pittsburgh’s defense was very stout again, holding the Ravens to 4.8 yards
per play.
The Browns defense has been much stiffer in the second half of the season, as they haven’t allowed more than 23 points since Week 11. With both teams
invested here, I’d expect a tight, low-scoring, throwback of an AFC North game. — Adam Burke
(463) HOUSTON (464) INDIANAPOLIS MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
HOUSTON 16.1 16 23-89 [3.8] 34-20-190 [5.6] 17.3 24.3 22 34-169 [5.0] 30-20-210 [6.9] 15.6 -1 -8.2
INDIANAPOLIS 16.1 18 25-104 [4.1] 36-23-202 [5.7] 19 24.7 20 30-128 [4.2] 31-21-204 [6.6] 13.4 -13 -8.6
game outlook
Houston is currently in line position to have the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, while Indianapolis, the preseason AFC South favorite, is also in the top 5.
The Texans were expected to be in the division cellar and have one of the worst records in the league, so they have lived up (or down) to expectations in that
regard.
On the other hand, the Colts were expected to get back to the top of the division, but the continuing quarterback carousel has yet to stop. Frank Reich
was shown the door, as was offensive coordinator Marcus Brady. Former Colts All-Pro center Jeff Saturday was brought in as interim head coach despite
having zero high-level coaching experience, and the results have not been good. Neither Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger nor Nick Foles looks to be the answer at
quarterback. Jonathan Taylor, who was arguably the NFL’s best running back in 2021, was a minimal factor this season and is now on IR.
The highest-paid offensive line in the league has been one of the league’s bottom 10 units all season. Going into last week, the defense was a top-10 unit
in the league for DVOA but has constantly been put in jail by an anemic offense that ranks 30th in the league for scoring offense (Houston is 31st) and has
generated just 13 points in the last two games.
The Colts are 2.5-point favorites in the rematch of Week 1 game that ended in a tie. The total sits at a low number of 38 with two of the three bottom scoring
offenses in the NFL. However, it takes more effort to play defense than it does to play offense. With two teams already booking their respective offseason
vacations, this game could be a bit of “Happy Action Fun Time” and have higher scoring than anticipated. — Wes Reynolds
(467) ARIZONA (468) SAN FRANCISCO MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
ARIZONA 20.4 20 26-113 [4.4] 40-26-214 [5.4] 16 25.7 21 26-115 [4.5] 36-25-236 [6.6] 13.7 -1 -5.3
SAN FRANCISCO 25.8 20 29-137 [4.7] 31-20-232 [7.5] 14.3 16.5 17 23-79 [3.4] 35-23-225 [6.4] 18.4 9 9.3
game outlook
In Week 17, the 49ers faced their biggest test in Week 17 since late October when they lost to the Chiefs. They squeaked past the Raiders in overtime in Las Vegas. The Raiders took
it to the No. 1 defense in the league, amassing 500 yards of offense and putting up 34 points in a losing effort. For the first time since replacing Jimmy Garoppolo in a win over the
Dolphins, quarterback Brock Purdy had a few hiccups in the victory over Las Vegas.
Surviving with a win, however, has painted an even brighter picture for the Niners as they are now the No. 2 seed in the NFC and can still clinch the top spot with a win over the
Cardinals on Sunday combined with an Eagles loss to the Giants. If both San Francisco and Philadelphia lose and the Cowboys beat the Commanders, Dallas would be the No. 1
seed. If the 49ers lose and Minnesota beats Chicago, the Vikings would jump back into the No. 2 position and the Niners would be No. 3.
With the Eagles being 14-point favorites at home versus the Giants, New York having already clinched a playoff spot, and the Niners also being a 14-point home favorite against
Arizona, it is likely the regular season will end with the seedings as they stand today.
From a betting standpoint, the 49ers will undoubtedly play to win their game, but if they are out to a big lead, we could see some starters pulled in the second half, which could
leave the backdoor open for the Cardinals. Arizona was competitive in a 20-19 loss to the Falcons, but that is a far cry from staying competitive with San Francisco. The Cardinals
could get Colt McCoy back at quarterback, and that would be an upgrade over David Blough. McCoy has much more experience than Blough and has faced this 49ers team a
couple of times as the Arizona starter.
Javon Kinlaw returned to action in that 49ers defensive front in Week 16. He played 16 snaps in a win over Washington and was in for 22 plays against the Raiders. Deebo Samuel
and Elijah Mitchell are expected to return to practice for San Francisco this week and could suit up in Week 18. Christian McCaffrey tweaked his ankle against the Raiders and is
being listed as day to day. He seems fine, but we could see Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price get the bulk of the action at running back for San Francisco if Kyle Shanahan
decides to rest McCaffrey, Samuel and Mitchell until the postseason.
My initial number comes to 49ers -17.5, but betting Week 18 is so tough until we have more information. It is a very information-based handicap this week, for all games, so I am
waiting to get more news on just exactly what kind of game plan(s) we can expect before I make a wager. — Brady Kannon
(469) LA CHARGERS (470) DENVER MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
LA CHARGERS 22.7 21 24-92 [3.8] 42-28-268 [6.4] 15.9 22.1 18 26-142 [5.4] 30-19-196 [6.5] 15.3 5 0.6
DENVER 16 17 25-108 [4.2] 34-21-208 [6.1] 19.8 20.7 19 26-113 [4.3] 35-23-205 [5.8] 15.4 -1 -4.7
game outlook
The Broncos still came up on the short end in their first game without coach Nathaniel Hackett, but they put a tremendous scare into the AFC West champion
Chiefs. This week, they’ll try to end a brutal season on a high note against the Chargers. The Chargers need a win to stay in the No. 5 seed and face the
Jaguars or Titans in the wild-card round, as opposed to drawing one of the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals or Ravens.
Some may overestimate what happened with the Broncos last week. They were still outgained 6.4 to 4.7 in yards per play. The Chiefs had tons of early-down
success and had 27 points and 374 yards of offense with just two third-down conversions. It was still a better showing from Denver than we’ve seen most
weeks, but Russell Wilson had only 222 passing yards on 38 attempts and the defense gave up several 20-plus-yard passing plays.
Denver went with more big packages against the Chiefs, using two running backs and two tight ends more than 11 personnel from the spread offense that
Hackett ran. They also drew up more moving pockets for Wilson, something that will be important to watch against the Chargers’ pass rush with a healthy
Joey Bosa.
With the changes, the Broncos scored at least 23 points for the fourth time this season but still came up short and still lacked explosive plays. Given that Justin
Herbert had 57 pass attempts and threw for just 238 yards as the Chargers had 3.6 yards per play in the first meeting, this looks like another low-scoring tilt
reminiscent of the 19-16 game from earlier this season. — Adam Burke
(471) TAMPA BAY (472) ATLANTA MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
TAMPA BAY 18.5 21 23-76 [3.3] 45-30-278 [6.2] 19.1 20.5 18 26-117 [4.4] 34-22-203 [6.0] 15.6 -2 -2
ATLANTA 20.9 19 33-159 [4.9] 24-15-156 [6.5] 15.1 23.1 21 30-133 [4.4] 33-22-238 [7.2] 16.1 -4 -2.2
game outlook
All Blaine Gabbert wanted to do last week was simulate Wave Race 64 with his brothers when he was called into action to help victims of a helicopter crash
to safety. This week, he’ll likely be called into action again, just not for a life-and-death situation. Gabbert is likely to get a good amount of work on Sunday
when the NFC South champion Buccaneers face the Falcons.
The Bucs are locked into the No. 4 seed and will host either the Cowboys or the Eagles in the wild-card round. Putting Tom Brady at any sort of risk this
week seems asinine, but Brady seemed to express a desire to play in his postgame press conference after lighting up the Panthers for 432 yards and three
touchdowns in the division clincher last weekend. Common sense likely prevails and the sportsbooks expect the Bucs to sit most of their important players with
the Falcons favored by 3.5 points with a quarterback who hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass yet.
Rookie Desmond Ridder has made three starts and has zero touchdowns. He has rushed for only 55 yards and passed for only 484. Even against second-
stringers, it seems unlikely that Ridder and the Falcons will be lighting up the scoreboard in this one. After all, the Falcons have scored more than 20 points
only once in the last eight games and nearly lost to a Cardinals team led by David Blough last week.
As with every game, keep an eye on the news and an ear on the coaches’ press conferences to find out who will be in and who will be out, as it seems
unnecessary for guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to play. — Adam Burke
(473) DALLAS (474) WASHINGTON MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
DALLAS 28.8 21 31-140 [4.4] 32-21-226 [7.0] 12.7 19.8 19 28-128 [4.5] 33-21-204 [6.1] 16.8 11 9
WASHINGTON 18.4 20 31-124 [4.0] 33-21-207 [6.2] 18 21.1 17 26-116 [4.5] 30-18-196 [6.6] 14.8 -6 -2.7
game outlook
Aside from an extended slump for quarterback Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are exactly where they hoped to be going into Week 18. Dallas, one game behind
Philadelphia in the NFC East standings, needs to beat Washington to have a shot at winning the division. The Cowboys need help — the Eagles, 14-point home
favorites, also must lose to the Giants — and might need a miracle, but at least they have a shot.
Improved play from Prescott also would help. He threw two more interceptions last week and has 14 for the season. A Dallas defense experiencing a late-
season decline caught a break by facing Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs in Week 17, and the Commanders’ quarterback situation is a similar mess.
The Cowboys are 5.5-point road favorites against Washington, which is 0-3-1 in its past four games and relegated to playing spoiler. Commanders coach Ron
Rivera is throwing darts in the dark with his quarterbacks, switching from Taylor Heinicke to Carson Wentz last week and getting worse results. After Wentz
threw three interceptions in a 24-10 loss to Cleveland, Rivera could switch back to Heinicke. In the teams’ first meeting on Oct. 2, Wentz was ineffective and
backup quarterback Cooper Rush led the Cowboys to a 25-10 win. Rivera’s best course of action is probably to go with Heinicke and hope Washington’s
running attack and defense do enough to keep it in the game.
Considering the Giants-Eagles game kicks off at the same time as the Cowboys-Commanders game, Dallas will be playing to win and keeping an eye on the
scoreboard. No matter what is happening in Philadelphia, it seems unlikely that Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy will pull starters at any point. Washington’s
motivation is questionable at best, so there are more reasons to bet the favorite in this game. — Matt Youmans
(475) CAROLINA (476) NEW ORLEANS MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
CAROLINA 21.1 17 28-127 [4.6] 28-16-185 [6.7] 14.8 22.9 21 28-121 [4.3] 35-23-232 [6.7] 15.4 -3 -1.8
NEW ORLEANS 20.2 18 27-115 [4.2] 30-20-221 [7.2] 16.6 20.9 19 28-128 [4.5] 33-20-194 [6.0] 15.4 -12 -0.7
game outlook
Unfortunately there will be no incentivized playoff angle in this NFC South matchup. Both of these teams were eliminated from playoff contention last week
and now have only pride to play for. New Orleans may have still been alive if they didn’t get upset by Carolina earlier this season. If you recall, the Panthers,
led by Baker Mayfield, defeated the Jameis Winston-led Saints 22-14. Also, Christian McCaffrey was still with Carolina at that point.
Despite the Panthers offense losing multiple players to injuries and departures, they are still finding a way to move the ball and actually are more efficiently
than before. Over the last three games, Carolina has averaged 7.0 yards per play (1st), quarterback Sam Darnold has averaged 272 passing yards and
has thrown for five total touchdowns and just one interception. Also, no McCaffrey? No problem. The Panthers now rank in the top half of rushing offenses,
according to DVOA.
As for their opposition, it’s a little tougher to find as much positivity in their offense. Yes, their past three games have been wins, but it hasn’t necessarily been
through any dynamic playing ability of quarterback Andy Dalton. Over the last three games, Dalton has averaged 149 passing yards while throwing two
touchdowns and two interceptions. The viable path on the offensive side of the ball has been driven through Alvin Kamara. And Kamara, in the last three, has
accumulated 57 carries for 241 total rushing yards.
The betting market originally had New Orleans as a 3-point favorite, which has now moved to 3.5. Also, the total has spiked up from 39 to 42. — Danny Burke
(477) NEW ENGLAND (478) BUFFALO MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
NEW ENGLAND 21.3 17 25-107 [4.2] 31-21-206 [6.6] 14.7 19.5 18 26-106 [4.1] 35-22-215 [6.1] 16.5 7 1.8
BUFFALO 28 23 27-143 [5.3] 36-23-259 [7.2] 14.4 17.5 20 24-104 [4.3] 35-22-213 [6.0] 18.1 0 10.5
game outlook
Thankfully there have been some positive reports coming out of Buffalo as far as this team getting back into its routine and out of University of Cincinnati
Medical Center on the progress of Damar Hamlin. Like I mentioned in the Bengals-Ravens preview this week, handicapping the Buffalo Bills is probably even
more difficult. It is just so hard to know how this Bills team will respond on Sunday and for us as bettors, we really don’t have a prior situation like it that we
can reference historically.
My numbers come to Bills -8, Bills -5 and Bills -7.5. I’m kind of happy with this result as the numbers don’t scream out any sort of edge for either side and I’ve
already described the uncertainty of the situation for Buffalo. I did not come into the week set on making a bet one way or another on this game and again,
with the numbers coming out as they do, that kind of reinforces my early thinking of passing on this game all together.
From a fan perspective, I hope the Bills win the game and the steady trickle of positive news on Hamlin continues as well. – Brady Kannon
(479) BALTIMORE (480) CINCINNATI MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
BALTIMORE 20.9 20 31-163 [5.2] 28-18-173 [6.2] 16.1 18 19 24-94 [3.9] 34-23-234 [6.8] 18.2 7 2.9
CINCINNATI 26.1 23 25-98 [3.9] 38-26-269 [7.1] 14.1 20.4 18 25-106 [4.2] 34-21-226 [6.6] 16.3 3 5.7
game outlook
The events on Monday Night Football leave a lot of uncertainty surrounding this matchup. The Ravens were rooting for a Bengals loss on Monday, which
would have made this contest on Sunday a battle for the AFC North division title. Now we are unsure if the Bengals and Bills will ever resume their Week
17 game. Even if the Ravens beat the Bengals here in Week 18, Cincinnati would still have the better winning percentage and could be crowned the division
champ.
When simply looking at the task at hand and not all of the potential scenarios if the Bills-Bengals game is resumed, we know that Lamar Jackson has still not
practiced for Baltimore. It has been 31 days since he injured his knee. Tyler Huntley looked better in last Sunday’s loss to the Steelers but he obviously limits
the Ravens offense versus what Jackson can do.
Only defensive end Sam Hubbard is currently on the injury report for the Bengals and he was limited in practice on Wednesday. Maybe the most difficult part
of handicapping this game is trying to figure out the current psyche of this Cincinnati team.
My numbers are heavy on the Ravens. I have Cincinnati favored by a half point, and then two other sets of numbers that each make Baltimore a 2-point
favorite. This would normally get my attention enough to make a bet on the Ravens -- who are getting as many as 7.5 points – and I still may ... but there too
many unknowns right now. - Brady Kannon
(481) MINNESOTA (482) CHICAGO MONEY REPORT
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
MINNESOTA 24.7 22 23-95 [4.2] 40-26-259 [6.5] 14.3 25.9 22 28-123 [4.5] 37-25-273 [7.4] 15.3 2 -1.2
CHICAGO 19.6 17 33-181 [5.4] 22-13-130 [5.9] 15.9 27.1 21 31-158 [5.0] 28-18-211 [7.5] 13.6 -2 -7.5
game outlook
It’s a little strange to see a 12-4 team, at the end of the year, just a 3.5-point favorite against a depleted 3-13 unit. But that spread displays the lack of
confidence in this Minnesota team. Out of the 12 wins the Vikings have accumulated, 11 have been one-score games — including the last time they played the
Bears.
In the final game of the regular season, we sometimes see top teams, such as Minnesota, rest their guys to keep them safe and healthy for the playoffs.
However, there is still incentive on the line for the purple-colored team. The Vikings are seeking to improve their home-field advantage in the playoffs as the
49ers have leap-frogged them in the standings. But with a Minnesota win and a San Francisco loss, Kevin O’Connell’s squad can reclaim its position. Plus,
after last week’s embarrassment, it may be wise for the Vikings to put their guys out there one more time before they make their postseason appearance so
they can get that stink out of their minds.
On the other side, Matt Eberflus’ thought process has been volatile as to whether or not quarterback Justin Fields is going to play. Originally, he said Fields
would play out the season if he was healthy. But after getting dismantled by the Lions and seeing Fields complete just 7 of 21 passes for 75 yards while taking
seven sacks, what’s the point and is it worth the risk? On Monday, Eberflus mentioned that the team was “working through” whether Fields would play and
went on to say, “We’re gonna look at everybody on our football team and make sure that we’re doing what’s best for the Bears.”
To be frank, it may not matter who is out there for Chicago, considering they already feature the league’s worst defense and the 27th-ranked offense,
according to DVOA. So if there’s a chance for Minnesota to bounce back comfortably, it may be this one. — Danny Burke
COLLEGE
FOOTBALL
key statistics
2022 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF
TCU 41.1 22 38-204 [5.3] 31-20-270 [8.8] 11.5 26.4 20 37-152 [4.1] 35-19-243 [7.0] 15 9 14.7
GEORGIA 39.4 24 37-202 [5.5] 33-23-293 [8.8] 12.6 14.8 16 27-80 [3.0] 35-20-225 [6.4] 20.6 -1 24.6