Rain 'Gone' from Java in the Next Week, Here Are the Triggering Factors

Even though it has entered the rainy season, the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics

Agency (BMKG) predicts that in general, the Java Island region will experience cloudy sunny

weather in the next week.

Areas in Java, including Jabodetabek, generally experience the rainy season since mid-

November.

However, based on predictions of accumulated rainfall for the Indonesian region for the period

16-21 December 2023 on its Instagram account, BMKG shows Java island is "generally sunny

cloudy" on December 16-21.

However, in the Weather Outlook for the Next Week for the period 15-21 December, BMKG said

the Central Java and East Java regions have the potential for moderate to heavy intensity rain.

Meanwhile, the West Java region such as Jabodetabek tends to be sunny and cloudy. In this

region, only Bogor has the potential to experience light rain on December 18-20.

Light-intensity rain itself is defined as rain with an intensity ranging from 0.5 to 20 millimeters

per day.

"In the next week, most of Sumatra, Java bag. central to east, Bali and Nusa Tenggara,

Kalimantan, Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, West Papua, and Papua have the potential to

experience moderate to heavy rain," said BMKG.

Provoking factors

BMKG explains a number of factors that drive the phenomenon of increased rainfall this period.
First, the wave activity of the Equatorial Rossby atmosphere. This phenomenon is predicted to be

active in northern Kalimantan, northern Sulawesi, North Maluku, and northern and southern

West Papua in the next week.

Second, Kelvin atmospheric waves are active in Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan,

Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, West Papua, and Papua for the next week.

"Those factors support the potential for rain cloud growth."

Third, cyclonic circulation was observed in the Indian Ocean west of Aceh, the Natuna Sea, the

Pacific Ocean north of Papua, northern Australia, and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

This phenomenon forms an area of confluence/deceleration of wind speed (convergence)

extending in the Natuna Sea, South China Sea, central Sumatra Island, Java Sea, Flores Sea,

Banda Sea, and Arafuru Sea.

Other convergence areas extend into central and southern Kalimantan, central-south Sulawesi,

and Maluku. Meanwhile, confluence areas were observed in North Maluku.

"These conditions can increase the potential for rain cloud growth around the cyclonic

circulation and along convergence/confluence areas," according to BMKG.

Source: CNN Indonesia