The Contemporary World 2020

UNIT V GLOBAL POPULATION AND MOBILITY

Coverage: Weeks 12, 13 and 14

Duration: 9 hours

The Global City (3 hours; week 12)

Global Demography (3 hours; week 13)

Global Migration (3 hours; week 14)

Learning Objectives: After studying the unit, the students should be able to:

● Define what global city is

● Identify the attributes of a global city
● Define demography
● Describe and explain the the theory of demographic transition and its effect on global
population
● Identify the effects of overpopulation on the economic welfare
● Identify the types and reasons for migration of the people
● Analyze the factors underlying the global movements of people
● Discuss the effects of global migration on the economic well-being of states

1. The Global City

2. Global Demography
3. Global Migration

Global City: Its Definition and Concepts

As defined, a global city is an urban centre that enjoys significant competitive
advantages and that serves as a hub within a globalized economic system. The term
has its origins in research on cities carried out during the 1980s, which examined the
common characteristics of the world’s most important cities. However, with increased
attention being paid to processes of globalization during subsequent years, these world
cities came to be known as global cities. Linked with globalization was the idea of
spatial reorganization and the hypothesis that cities were becoming key loci within

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global networks of production, finance, and telecommunications. In some formulations

of the global city thesis, then, such cities are seen as the building blocks of globalization.
173

What constitutes a global city were primarily economic. As such, New York,
London, and Tokyo can be identified as global cities, all of which are hubs of global
finance and capitalism. 174 This concept of global cities was used to describe these three
urban centers of New York, London, and Tokyo as economic centers that exert control
over the world’s political economy. World cities are categorized as such based on the
global reach of organization found in them. Not only are there inequalities between
these cities there also exists inequalities within each city. 175 Alternatively, these cities
can be seen as important nodes in a variety of global networks.176
Although cities are major beneficiaries of globalization, they are also the most
severely affected by global problems. Therefore the city faces peculiar political
problems, wherein it is often fruitlessly seeing to deal locally with global problems and
local politics has become overloaded.177

Indicators of a Global City

The following are the foremost characteristics of a global city. 178
1. Seats of Economic Power
New York may have the largest stock market in the world but Tokyo houses the
most number of corporate headquarters (613 company headquarters as against 217 in
New York, its competitor). Shanghai may have a smaller stock market compared to New
York and Tokyo, but plays a critical role in the global economic supply chain ever since
China has become the manufacturing center of the world. Shanghai has the world’s
busiest container port, moving over 33 million container units in 2013.
2. Centers of Authority
Washington DC may not be wealthy as New York but it is the seat of American
state power. People around the world know its major landmarks: the White House, the
Capitol Building (Congress), the Supreme Court, the Lincoln Memorial, and the
Washington Monument. Similarly, compared with Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is a
sleepy town and thus is not as attractive to tourists. But as Australia’s political capital, it
is home to the country’s top politicians, bureaucrats, and policy advisors.
3. Centers of Political Influence
Cities that house major international organizations may also be considered
centers of political influence. The headquaters of the United Nations is in New York,
and that of the European Union is in Brussels. An influential political city near the
Philippines is Jakarta, which is not just the capital of Indonesia, but also the location of
the main headquarters of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

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Powerful political hubs exert influence on their own countires as well as on international
affairs. The European Central Bank which oversees the Euro (the European Union’s
currency), is based in Frankfurt.
4. Centers of Higher Learning and Culture
A city’s intellectual influence is seen through the influence of its publishing
industry. Many of the books that people read are published in places like New York ,
London, or Paris. The New York Times carries the name of New York City but it is far
from being a local newspaper. People read it not just across America, but also all over
the world. One of the reasons for many tourists visiting Boston is that they want to see
Harvard University - the world’s top university.
Many Asian teenagers are moving to cities in Australia because of the leading
language universities there. Los Angeles, the center of the American film industry may
also be considered a global city. A less obvious example, however, is Copenhagen, the
capital of Denmark. It is so small that one can tour the entire city by bicycle in thirty
minutes. It is not the home of a major stock market, and its population is rather
homogenous. However, Copenhagen is now considered as one of the culinary capitals
of the world, with its top restaurants incommensurate with its size. Similarly, Manchester,
England in the 1980’s was a dreary, industrial city. But many prominent post-punk and
New Wave bands - Joy Division, the Smiths, the Happy Mondays - hailed from this city,
making it a global household name.
In Southeast Asia, Singapore is slowly becoming a cultural hub for the region. It
now houses some of the region’s top television stations and news organization (MTV
Southeast Asia and Channel News Asia). Its various art galleries and cinemas also
show paintings from artists and filmmakers respectively from the Philippines and
Thailand. It is, in fact, sometimes easier to watch the movie of a Filipino indie filmmaker
in Singapore than it is in Manila.
5. Economic Opportunities
Economic opportunities in a global city make it attractive to talents from across
the world. Since the 1970’s, many of the top IT programmers and engineers from Asia
have moved to San Francisco Bay Area to become some of the key figures in Silicon
Valley’s technology boom. London remains a preferred destination for many Filipinos
with nursing degrees.
6. Economic Competitiveness
The Economist Intelligence Unit has added other criteria like market size,
purchasing power of citizens, size of the middle class, and potential for growth. Based
on this criteria, tiny Singapore is considered Asia’s most competitive city because of its
strong market, efficient and incorruptible government, and livability. 179 It also houses
the regional offices of many major global corporations.

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Cities as Engines of Globalization

Cities are the engines of globalization. They are social magnets, growing faster
and faster. In the current generation, urban life has become the dominant form of
human life throughout the world. An increasing number of large cities, with populations
of over five million, are already identified as global cities, cities that are nodes of global
as much as national networks. In 2000, there were 18 megacities (over 10 million)‚ such
as Mumbai, Tokyo, New York City/Newark and Mexico City had populations in excess
of 10 million inhabitants. Greater Tokyo already has 35 million. The Hong
Kong/Guangzhow area is even larger, perhaps 120 million.

The social magnetism of these urban areas is generating larger and denser
metropolitan communities to the point that they are joining together to become regional
conurbations. In 1900, 5% of the world population was urban. In 2007, the count passed
50%. By 2050, up to 75% is anticipated. Urban growth is faster outside the Western
world, fastest in the poorest areas, such as Africa and the poorer parts of Asia,
producing the most serious problems‚ which as the processes of globalization also
progress will cease to be African and Asian problems and will become global problems.
Movement into cities increases political voice and participation, as previously isolated
rural populations become players on city streets, on the Internet, and in migration.

As the pace of growth accelerates, the distinguishing cultural features of

established historical cities become diluted. Established institutional forms of
governance and services do not work with larger numbers. In the past, cities worked
differently in culturally different parts of the world, and experienced different problems.
Now, institutional innovation is failing to keep up with the rate of growth and change,
and the problems confronting urban populations depend more on size and the rate of
growth than on cultural expectations. 180

Global Demography

Demography: Meaning and Its Origin

The term demography was derived from the Greek words demos for “population”
and graphia for “description” or “writing,” thus the phrase, “writings about population.” 181
It was coined by Achille Guillard, a Belgian statistician, in 1855. However, the origins of
modern demography can be traced back to the John Graunt’s analysis of ‘Bills of
Mortality’ which was published in 1662. 182

By its meaning, as cited by Tulchinsky, demography refers to the study of

populations, with reference to size and density, fertility, mortality, growth, age
distribution, migration, and vital statistics and the interaction of all these with social and
economic conditions”. As such, demography is based on vital statistics reporting and
special surveys of population size and density; it measures trends over time. 183

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Demographic transition started in mid- or late 1700’s in Europe. During that time,
death rates and fertility began to decline. High to low fertility happened 200 years in
France and 100 years in the United States. In other parts of the world, the transition
began later. It was only in the 20th century that mortality decline in Africa and Asia, with
the exemption of Japan. In India, life expectancy in India was only 24 years in the early
20th century while the same life expectancy occurred in China in 1929 until 1931.
Fertility decline in Asia did not begin until the 1950’s and so on. 184 In the case of Japan,
it was until the 1930’s that “total fertility rate did not drop below five births per woman”
185
This resulted in rapid population growth after the Second World War affecting the
age structure of Asia and the developing world. Specifically, the baby boom in the
developing world was caused by the decline of infant and child mortality rates. The
West, on the other hand, experienced baby boom that resulted from rising birth rates.

Effect of Demographic Transition

A remarkable effect of the demographic transition is ‘the enormous gap in life

expectancy that emerged between Japan and the West on the one hand and the rest of
the world on the other.” By 1820, the life expectancy at birth of Japan and the West was
12 years greater than that of other countries. It increased by 20 years by 1900. Although
there was an improvement in life expectancy all throughout the world in 1900-1950, the
gap had reached 22 years. In 1999, the gap declined to 14 years. These differences in
time of transition affected the global population. During the 19th century, Europe and the
West had an increased in share in the world’s population, from 22.0 percent to 33.0
percent, while Asia and Oceania’s contribution dropped from 69.0 percent to 56.7. India
and China suffered from economic stagnation and decline during that time. 186

There was a reverse in global population shares during the 20th century as Africa,
Asia, Latin America, and Oceania had high levels of population growth rates. Population
growth shows a more remarkable shift: “Between 1820 and 1980, 69.3 percent of the
world’s population growth occurred in Europe and Western offshoots. Between 1950
and 2000, however, only 11.7 percent occurred in the region.” 187

The United States projected that population growth will be shifted toward Africa.
It is estimated that by 2150, the region’s share to the world population will be almost 20
percent, relatively much greater than its share in 1820 (seven percent) and in 1900 (six
percent). Also, in 2150, there will be a projected increase of two billion if we combine
the population of Asia, Latin America, and Oceania.

In terms of age structure, the overall trend in Japan and the West was downward
until 1950. Their dependency ratio was close to 0.5. It only increased, although
temporary, when the baby boom after the Second World War occurred. Japan’s
dependency ratio, however, increased between 1888 and 1920. its dependency ratio
was higher than the West between 1920 and the early 1950’s. It dropped in 1970 and
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later since its precipitous decline in childbearing during the 1950’s and low fertility rates
in recent years.

The developing countries like India and the Philippines had higher dependency
ratios than the West in 1900. A great increase in dependency ratio was caused by the
decline in infant and child mortality and high levels of fertility, with its peak around 1970.

Dependency ratios started to disappear because there is a decline in global birth

rate. Furthermore, the gap in fertility between the West and the less developed
countries became smaller by the 21st century. Over the next 50 years, the cases of
dependency ratios of these two areas in the world will be reversed. 188 The aging
populations will cause a rise in dependency ratio, starting in the West.

Theory of Demographic Transition

Demographic transition theory suggests that future population growth will

develop along a predictable four- or five-stage model.189

Stage 1

In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and
roughly in balance. An example of this stage is the United States in the 1800s. All
human populations are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th century,
when this balance ended in Western Europe. In fact, growth rates were less than 0.05%
at least since the Agricultural Revolution over 10,000 years ago.

Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is
constrained by the available food supply; therefore, unless the society develops new
technologies to increase food production (e.g. discovers new sources of food or
achieves higher crop yields), any fluctuations in birth rates are soon matched by death
rates.

Stage 2

In stage two, that of a developing country, death rates drop rapidly due to
improvements in food supply and sanitation, which increase life spans and reduce
disease. Afghanistan is currently in this stage.

The improvements specific to food supply typically include selective breeding and
crop rotation and farming techniques. Other improvements generally include access to
technology, basic healthcare, and education. For example, numerous improvements in
public health reduce mortality, especially childhood mortality. Prior to the mid-20th

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century, these improvements in public health were primarily in the areas of food
handling, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene. Another variable often cited is
the increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs which
emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

In Europe, the death rate decline started in the late 18th century in northwestern
Europe and spread to the south and east over approximately the next 100 years.
Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries
in this stage experience a large increase in population.

Stage 3

In stage three, birth rates fall. Mexico’s population is at this stage. Birth rates
decrease due to various fertility factors such as access to contraception, increases in
wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status
and education of women, a reduction in the value of children’s work, an increase in
parental investment in the education of children and other social changes. Population
growth begins to level off. The birth rate decline in developed countries started in the
late 19th century in northern Europe.

While improvements in contraception do play a role in birth rate decline, it should

be noted that contraceptives were not generally available nor widely used in the 19th
century and as a result likely did not play a significant role in the decline then.

It is important to note that birth rate decline is caused also by a transition in

values; not just because of the availability of contraceptives.

Stage 4

During stage four, there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates
may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany,
Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely
on population growth. Sweden is considered to currently be in Stage 4.

As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on
the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase
slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity
and an aging population in developed countries. By the late 20th century, birth rates and
death rates in developed countries leveled off at lower rates.

Stage 5 (Debated)

Some scholars delineate a separate fifth stage of below-replacement fertility

levels. Others hypothesize a different stage five involving an increase in fertility. The

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United Nations Population Fund (2008) categorizes nations as high-fertility,

intermediate-fertility, or low-fertility. The United Nations (UN) anticipates the population
growth will triple between 2011 and 2100 in high-fertility countries, which are currently
concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa.

For countries with intermediate fertility rates (the United States, India, and
Mexico all fall into this category), growth is expected to be about 26 percent. Low-fertility
countries like China, Australia, and most of Europe will actually see population decline
of approximately 20 percent.

Global Migration: Meaning and Concept

Globalization has made migration possible and an inevitable fact. As defined by

Cambridge dictionary, 190 global migration is a situation in which people go to live in
foreign countries especially to find a job. Though it can be often seen as a permanent
move rather than a complex series of backward or onward series, 191 the term
migration is often conceptualized as a move from an origin to a destination, or from a
place of birth to another destination across administrative borders within a country or
international borders. 192

Types of Migration

Internal migration
This refers to people moving from one area to another within one country
International migration
This refers to the movement people who cross the borders of one country
to another.

The latter can be broken down into five groups:

First are those who move permanently to another country (immigrants). The
second refers to workers who stay in another country for a fixed period (at least 6
months in a year).193 Illegal immigrants comprise the third group, while the fourth are
migrants whose families have “petitioned” them to move to the destination country.
The fifth group are refugees (also known as assylum-seekers), i.e., those “unable or

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unwilling to return because of a well-founded fear of persecution on acccount of race,

religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion. “ 194
Many countries face issues of illegal migration. The United States faces a major
influx of illegal immigrants from Mexico and other Central American states 195. A fence is
being constructed on the US-Mexico border to control this flow of people. 196 However,
its efficacy is questioned and it is thought that it will only be illegal immigrants to adopt
more dangerous methods to gain entry. In addition, tighter borders have also had the
effect of “locking in” people who might otherwise have left the country. 197 Other
countries with similar concerns about illegal immigration include Great Britain,
Switzerland, and Greece as well as other countries in Asia.
A strong case can be made on the backlash against illegal immigrants 198. In the
North, such immigrants constitute a younger workforce that does work which locals may
not perform, and they are consumers who contribute to growth. They also send
remittances back to family members in the country of origin, which improves the lives of
the recipients, reduces poverty rates, and increases the level of education as well as the
foreign reserves of the home country 199. Banks are often unwilling or unable to handle
the type (small amounts of money) and volume of remittances. As a result, specialized
organizations play a major role in the transmission of remittances. In terms of
remittances, the Philippines is one of the leaders when it comes to the flow of
remittances ($14.7 billion), next to India ($24.5 billion) and China ($21.1 billion). 200

Reasons for Migration

People decide to migrate because of push and pull factors. A push factor
induces people to move out of their present location, whereas a pull factor induces
people to move into a new location. As migration for most people is a major step not
taken lightly, both push and pull factors typically play a role. To migrate, people view
their current place of residence so negatively that they feel pushed away, and they view
another place so attractively that they feel pulled toward it.201 The following are the
factors underlying the global movement of the people.
1. Cultural Factor
Cultural factor can be especially a compelling push factor, forcing people to
emigrate from a country. Forced international migration has historically occurred for two
main cultural reasons: slavery and political instability. Millions of people were shipped to
other countries as slaves or as prisoners, especially from Africa to the Western
Hemisphere, during the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. Large groups of
people are no longer forced to migrate as slaves, but forced international migration
persists because of political instability resulting from cultural diversity.

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2. Socio-political Factor
Socio-political factors have become more prominent force to initiate migration
activities. Political instability in some parts of the world is responsible for migration that
needs to be addressed by the scholars of the world. Situation of war, oppression and
the lack of socio-political rights are the major factors of migration in contemporary time.
Lack of political rights and prevalent exploitation of a particular group or community in
any nation state act as push factors for migration to get away from such situation.
Social conflict forces millions of human creature to leave sometimes their homes
and even their homeland every year to continue breathing on this planet. This
displacement creates a humanitarian nightmare. This human crisis threatens the
security of displaced people. The journalists around the globe describe such situation
with their voice that attracts the people’s attention towards this crisis. For example, we
can quote some headlines as sample ‘growing stream of refugees’ from Sudan, a ‘flood
of boat people’ trying to reach Australia, and a ‘tide of refugees’ inundating Florida. 202
3. Environmental Factor
Despite the fact that human relocation is a fundamental piece of history and
culture of world, ecological change assumes a contributing part in influencing populace
movement, especially on local level. According to IOM (International Organisation of
Migration): “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for
compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely
affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose
to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or
abroad”. 203 This definition comprises the people who have been displaced by natural
disasters and those who choose to migrate because of worsening environmental
condition of a particular area. The environmentally caused migration can be internal as
well as international.
Environmental migrants commonly suffer with great risks to remain without legal
protection. Sometimes they find themselves outside of their own country and also within
the country. When world leaders of most of the countries came together in Paris to
discuss the matter of climate change and its consequences for migration, it seemed like
they would find long term solution. According to The European Commission, “The
greatest single impact of climate change could be on human migration with millions of
people displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and agricultural disruption—a
crisis in the making.” 204
4. Economic Factors
Migration is a process affecting individuals and their families economically. It
ensues as a response to economic development along with social and cultural factors.
Recent studies on the economic impact of migration in European countries as well as
other part of the world have reflected fresh comparative evidence that provides boost for
economy. International migration has two way effects on economic growth. Though it is

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still debatable about its positive impact on GDP growth of a host country, it is
worldwidely recognised that migration expands the skilled workforce.
A recent UNCTAD report notes: ‘Remittances are more stable and predictable as
compared to other financial flows and, more importantly, they are counter-cyclical
providing buffer against economic shocks. In conflict or post–conflict situations,
remittances can be crucial to survival, sustenance, rehabilitation, and reconstruction. In
providing primarily for household livelihoods, remittances are spent on general
consumption items in local communities that contribute to local economies by
supporting small businesses.
Moreover, in contributing to foreign exchange earnings, remittances can spur
economic growth by improving sending countries’ credit worthiness and expanding their
access to international capital markets’. 205 It is also important to consider the impact of
return migration on the economy of a particular country. Return migration has always
put impacts on, at various levels, of economy as well as society in whole.

According to World Migration Report published in 2018, “The total estimated 244
million people living in a country other than their country of birth in 2015 is almost 100
million more than in 1990 (when it was 153 million), and over three times the estimated
number in 1970 (84 million).While the proportion of international migrants globally has
increased over this period, it is evident that the vast majority of people continue to live in
the country in which they were born. Most international migrants in 2015 (around 72%)
were of working age (20 to 64 years of age), with a slight decrease in migrants aged
less than 20 between 2000 and 2015 (17% to 15%), and a constant share 159 (around
12%) of international migrants aged 65 years or more since 2000. 206

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