Qatar Warns Any US Response To Iran Strike Threatens Hostage Negotiations Semafor

Qatar warns any US response to Iran strike threatens hostage negotiation... about:reader?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.semafor.com%2Farticle%2...
semafor.com
Any US retaliation to Iran strike could

hurt hostage negotiations, Qatar warns
| Semafor
Diego Mendoza
28–35 minutes
Semafor Signals
Insights from The Guardian, Al-Monitor, and Haaretz
The News
Qatar on Monday warned Washington that any retaliatory strike on

Iran would hurt delicate negotiations to release more than 100
hostages still held in Gaza.
Iran has denied any direct involvement in the Sunday drone attack
that killed three U.S. soldiers and injured dozen others near the
Jordan-Syria border, but U.S. and international intelligence
suggests Tehran’s proxy military groups across the Middle East are
fighting to end U.S. military presence in the region.
Iran knows it cannot risk a direct war with the U.S., analysts said,
but a direct strike against Iranian military targets could fuel a
regional war which would only prolong the bombardment of Gaza
and risk destabilizing crucial U.S. allies in the region.
1 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
SIGNALS
Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.
If Biden gives in to political pressure, he risks setting off a

‘mega-bomb’ in the Middle East
With many Republicans raring to castigate President Biden for any

signs of a weak response to the deadly Jordan strike, Biden “may
not be able to resist” political pressure to hit back at Iran ahead of
an election that he could potentially lose to the likely GOP nominee
Donald Trump, wrote The Guardian’s foreign affairs columnist
Simon Tisdall. But doing so would set off a “mega-bomb” in the
Middle East that risks igniting a wider regional war and alienating
Washington from its European allies, he argued.
Not only would a direct military strike against Iran extend the Gaza
conflict, it could provoke Hezbollah to openly attack Israel,
exacerbate the situation in Iraq and Syria, and threaten the political
stability of friendly countries like Egypt and Jordan, Tisdall wrote. It
could also create lasting divisions between western democracies,
such as the UK — which would back the U.S.— and others like
France, Germany, and Italy who prefer diplomatic means of dealing
with Iran. Instead of succumbing to political pressure, “Biden must
exercise all possible restraint,” Tisdall opined, by calling for an
immediate ceasefire in Gaza and pushing for a two-state solution
once and for all.
Any retaliatory measures would provoke Tehran into driving

the US out of the region
“There are not that many rungs left on the escalation ladder that
don’t involve Iran,” one analyst told Al-Monitor, and the Biden
administration is running out of retaliatory options that wouldn’t
further provoke Tehran. The U.S.’ strikes on arms facilities used by
Iran-backed militias like the Houthis have had little deterrent effect,
as Biden himself has conceded. The few remaining options will
involve “crossing the threshold” Al-Monitor wrote, including direct
strikes against Iranian bases or personnel in Syria or Iraq, or even
2 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
military targets on Iranian territory. But sources told Al-Monitor that

U.S. intelligence knows that any of these attempts would provoke
Tehran into targeting U.S. bases in the region, with the eventual
goal of driving them out from the region. “The Iranians have a
strategy, and we don’t,” a former senior U.S. Defense Department
official told the outlet.
Netanyahu’s insult of Qatar risks isolating Israel and impacting

hostage negotiations
Reuters, Jerusalem Post, Haaretz
Recently leaked audio reportedly caught Israeli Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu calling Qatar “no different” than the United
Nations, whose Palestinian aid agency is now under fire after Israel
alleged its employees’ involvement in the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. A
former Mossad director called Netanyahu’s insult “puzzling” given
that the prime minister is aware that if Qatar leaves “the negotiating
table” Israel “would be left without effective mediating” to release
hostages and de-escalate the conflict in Gaza and the wider region.
But Netanyahu’s antagonization of Qatar also places Israel “on a
collision course” with the U.S., according to a Haaretz columnist,
who argued that Washington could ultimately abandon supporting
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza in favor of helping Qatar and
other Arab allies contain Iran.
Semafor Signals
Insights from The Hindu, South Asian Voices, Foreign Policy, and
The Washington Post
The News
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was given a 10-year
3 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
prison sentence for leaking state secrets, days ahead of Pakistan’s

general election, in a case his political party described as a “sham.”
The closed-door sentencing is the harshest legal action taken so far

against Khan, who faces a string of cases and is already serving a
three-year jail term after he was convicted of corruption last year,
ruling him out of next week’s polls.
In this latest case he was found guilty of disclosing the contents of

a diplomatic message, which he claimed showed that his removal
from office in a no-confidence vote in 2022 was a conspiracy
between the U.S. and the Pakistani military.
“This was not a trial, it was a fraud,” one of Khan’s lawyers, who will
be appealing against the ruling, said on Tuesday.
SIGNALS
Elections delayed until Khan barred from running
The Hindu, South Asian Voices
Khan, a former cricketer, is massively popular among the Pakistani

public, who regularly turn out in huge rallies in his support, protests
which can occasionally become violent. Pakistan’s general
elections were first called last year, then delayed due to an issue
with the country’s census. Analysts believe they were postponed so
that legal convictions would prevent Khan from running — and
likely winning if he did so, Indian outlet The Hindu reported.
Delaying the election helped ensure Khan would be behind bars,
making it “easier for the military establishment to get the ‘desired
results’ … and install a set up of its choice in Islamabad,” the paper
noted.
Military’s outsized influence on Pakistani politics likely started

legal woes
Military leaders in Pakistan often call the shots in the country, and
have a tendency to turn on politicians who fall out of favor,
4 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
columnist Ishaan Tharoor wrote in The Washington Post. Khan’s

2022 ouster from power was likely backed by military officials, and
people in the media sympathetic to Khan have been silenced,
Tharoor pointed out. “Khan’s distinct brand of politics — and
popularity — may make him a unique threat to the top brass,” he
added.
Pakistan’s democratic institutions are backsliding
Successive Pakistani governments have dismantled many of the

country’s democratic institutions, columnist Lynne O’Donnell noted
in Foreign Policy. Electoral redistricting, for instance, delayed
Pakistan’s elections until Feb. 8, with critics accusing the
government of gerrymandering. “There’s a very clear pattern of the
dismantling of the correctives of democracy,” one researcher told
her, adding that while it was hard to say if the current situation was
“unprecedented,” it “has certainly escalated and intensified in
recent months and years.”
Semafor Signals
Insights from Bloomberg, the South China Morning Post, and

Samuel Bickett
The News
‘Expats’ – a new Amazon mini-series set and filmed in Hong Kong

– is not available for streaming in the city, leading to suggestions
Hong Kong officials may have banned the show in line with
Beijing’s broad crackdown on the arts.
The six-part show, directed by Chinese-born American filmmaker

Lulu Wang, follows the lives of three American women living in
Hong Kong in 2014, as they navigate a shared tragedy amid tense
class dynamics and an increasingly fraught political landscape.
5 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
The Hong Kong authorities denied banning the show – which

portrays the pro-democracy Umbrella Movement that saw the city
roiled by protests in 2014 – saying local audiences were unable to
watch ‘Expats’ because of Amazon’s restrictions.
Amazon Prime TV and Lulu Wang did not respond to Semafor’s

requests for comment.
SIGNALS
Authorities bent quarantine rules to allow a show now seen as

bad for Hong Kong’s image
Bloomberg, South China Morning Post
Hong Kong officials bent the city’s strict quarantine rules to allow
Nicole Kidman and cast to film during the height of the COVID-19
pandemic in 2020, to the outrage of locals who were unable to
travel for months or years. But the resulting show does not portray
Hong Kong in a wholly positive light, one lawmaker told the South
China Morning Post, saying it put the Hong Kong government in an
“awkward position”, while ‘Expats’ has received reviews calling it
“bleak” and “boring”.
Another lawmaker, Dominic Lee Tsz-king, said authorities should

have been told about the show’s portrayal of the Umbrella
Movement – and considered whether it would be good for the city’s
image – before granting the controversial exemptions to cast and
crew. “From what I understand, it’s about how Hong Kong could be
boring, and includes scenes of the illegal Occupy Central
movement – these can’t be positive for Hong Kong,” he told the
SCMP.
Director hits a nerve with comments that Cantonese is dying
Aaron McNicholas, Samuel Bickett
The show’s director Lulu Wang sparked controversy after wading

into a debate over the languages used in the city, where Cantonese
6 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
is traditionally spoken but use of Mandarin has soared since its

handover to China in 1997.
Wang drew fury on social media after posting on X that “Cantonese

is a dying language”, saying she witnessed an “overwhelming
amount of Mandarin” while filming the show. U.S. lawyer and Hong
Kong activist Samuel Bickett responded: “Is everyone involved in
promoting this show just playing the part of the clueless Expats
characters they created?” Meanwhile, The Wire China journalist
Aaron Mc Nicholas argued that official data shows the number of
primary schools teaching Mandarin in Hong Kong has actually
decreased.
Missing series raises questions over China-style censorship
Agence France-Presse, Reuters, The Guardian
While Hong Kong’s Commerce and Economic Development Bureau

said the city’s censorship laws did not apply to streaming services,
online platforms can still be targeted by the sweeping national
security law that Beijing imposed on Hong Kong in 2020 and which
punishes broad acts of dissent – leading some to wonder if China
was behind the ‘Expats’ ban. An episode of The Simpsons
containing a controversial scene at Tiananmen Square in Beijing –
the site of the 1989 student protests in which hundreds are
estimated to have died – was removed from Disney+ in 2021,
raising fears of “mainland-style censorship”. And a film censorship
law passed in Hong Kong in 2021 has pushed many artists,
producers, and directors to slash material that could fall under
China’s definition of endangering national security. Hong Kong
director Kiwi Chow was forced to find new investors for her projects
after initial sponsors pulled their funding over “political concerns”,
Reuters reported.
Semafor Signals
Insights from The Wall Street Journal, Slate, The Guardian
7 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
The News
Teenage Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva was handed a four-

year ban by the Court of Arbitration for Sport Monday over a
positive drugs test ahead of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, in a
case that has cast a spotlight on the doping of minors.
After testing positive months before the competition, the then 15-
year old Valieva went on to assist the Russian Olympic Committee
in winning a team gold medal, with her suspension now throwing
the results of the Olympic figure skating competition into limbo.
With Valieva subject to a retroactive ban dating from December

2021, the United States may now move up a place to take gold,
and Japan silver – but any reallocation of medals is in the hands of
the International Olympic Committee and the International Skating
Union, which are expected to decide shortly.
A Kremlin spokesperson slammed Valieva’s ban as “politicized”.
SIGNALS
Doping of minors in frame as figure skating world seeks to

raise competition age
The Wall Street Journal, Slate, Sports Illustrated
“The doping of children is unforgivable,” the World Anti-Doping

Agency said in response to Valieva’s case, amid calls for stronger
action to target coaches and doctors who provide illegal
performance-enhancing substances to minors, a practice widely
seen as abuse. Since 2012, the agency has reported 1416 minors
testing positive for banned substances, according to The Wall
Street Journal. In 2021 it introduced the category of “protected
persons”, providing for different sanctions for minors or those
without legal capacity who dope.
8 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
The figure skating world should raise the minimum competition age
from 15 to 18, “for the health of the athletes and for the health of
their sport”, which suffers from “teen turnover,” Sports Illustrated
argued. Youth advocates say Valieva could not have taken the
banned heart medication trimetazidine without adult direction. By
allowing her temporary participation in 2022 following the positive
test announcement, international associations have “vindicated her
abusers, emboldening them to use further unthinkable methods,”
one Slate contributor wrote.
Banning of a world great adds to Russia’s sporting woes
The Guardian, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal
The banning of a figure skater that The Guardian’s chief sports

reporter mooted as “perhaps the greatest female skater in history”
is another blow to Russia’s athletes, whose ability to compete on
the world stage has been severely stymied over doping scandals
and Moscow’s war in Ukraine. After being forced to compete under
the banner of the Russian Olympic Committee in Beijing over a
state-sponsored drugs scandal, that team was banned from taking
part in the Olympics last October after it recognized regional
organizations in annexed parts of Ukraine. In the Paris Olympics
this summer, athletes from Russia who qualify in their sport will
have to compete as neutrals without flags, emblems or anthems,
the International Olympic Committee said in December. Nearly 70
athletes, 45 of them Summer Olympians, have switched country
allegiances from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, signing
antiwar declarations in pursuit of new citizenship, The Wall Street
Journal reported.
Semafor Signals
Insights from Global Times, Time Magazine, and the Center for
Strategic and International Studies
9 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
The News
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping may hold
bilateral talks in the spring — a sign of ongoing efforts to keep
tensions between the two global superpowers at bay.
The news came after Washington’s national security adviser Jake

Sullivan and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi held “candid,
substantive and constructive discussions” in Bangkok on a series of
regional and international issues, the White House said.
While channels of communication between the two countries have

largely been restored following months of tensions, several
contentious issues remain, including the question of Taiwan’s
sovereignty, Washington’s “technological blockade” against Beijing,
and China’s role in the Red Sea conflict.
SIGNALS
US may overestimate Beijing’s ability to minimize tensions in

the Red Sea
During the Bangkok talks, the U.S. urged Beijing to use “its
substantial leverage” with Iran to end the Houthi attacks in the Red
Sea that have upended global shipping, with one U.S. official
expressing doubt that Beijing is reportedly pushing Tehran to
restrain the Houthis or risk hurting their trading relations. But
“counting on China to pressure Iran to stop Houthi attacks is an
overly simplistic notion,” a Shanghai-based professor told Chinese-
state owned tabloid Global Times, arguing that the militant group
does not necessarily “follow Iran’s orders.” China has called for de-
escalation in the Red Sea and has publicly slammed the U.S. and
UK for launching retaliatory strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
After being envious of China’s influence in the Middle East, the U.S.
is now seeking its help to resolve the Red Sea Crisis, the professor
told the Global Times, adding that the U.S. needs to “recognize the
imperative nature of cooperating with China on Middle East issues.”
10 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
China sent military vessels past Taiwan’s median line during

the Bangkok talks
Time Magazine, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, The New

York Times, Center for Strategic and International Studies
As China’s foreign minister reiterated that Taiwan remains the

“biggest challenge” in U.S.-China relations, Beijing sent more than
30 planes and six naval ships toward the territory which it claims as
its own over the weekend — with nearly half of the warplanes
crossing an unofficial median line between Taipei and the mainland,
Taiwan’s defense ministry said. If the two leaders speak in the
spring, it will be their first talks since Taiwan elected a president
who Xi has called “a separatist.” During their in-person meeting last
November, the two leaders “largely repeated old talking points
about Taiwan,” The New York Times reported.
China experts have suggested that the U.S. may jump to defend
Taiwan, even if China doesn’t pursue a full-scale military invasion.
A recently published report from the Center for Strategic and
International Studies argued that the U.S. may intervene militarily in
Taipei if China “quarantines” the territory by taking charge of its flow
of goods, or if Beijing pursues a naval blockade.
Semafor Signals
Insights from Bloomberg, CFO Dive, and Foreign Policy
The News
Amazon scrapped its $1.4 billion acquisition of iRobot, which

makes the Roomba vacuum cleaners, saying the deal had “no path
to regulatory approval in the European Union.”
EU officials had signaled they were concerned about how the deal
would affect competition in the robot vacuum sphere. Amazon said
11 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
in a statement that “undue and disproportionate regulatory hurdles

discourage entrepreneurs.”
SIGNALS
EU enacts sweeping tech crackdown on antitrust grounds
Euronews, The Verge, Bloomberg, CFO Dive
European regulators have shown an increased willingness to crack

down on big tech on antitrust grounds, as massive companies try to
gobble up smaller startups. Online travel giant Booking’s $1.7
billion takeover of Sweden’s Etraveli Group was blocked last after
the EU said it would harm the online travel agency sector. Adobe
terminated its $20 billion merger with design platform Figma in
December following pressure from EU and U.K. regulators. The
EU’s competition chief also suggested this month it might look into
the relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI. A Bloomberg
Intelligence analyst said “large technology companies will have a
tough time closing any acquisition given the current regulatory
climates” in both Europe and the U.S., where the Biden
administration has challenged deals at a record pace.
Is the EU shooting itself in the foot with its regulatory

approach?
CCIA Europe, Foreign Policy
Critics have argued the EU’s crackdown stifles innovation. The

head of the Computer & Communications Industry Association
Europe told Semafor that the death of the Amazon-iRobot deal
“sends the wrong message to both global investors and EU start-
ups: as soon as you reach a certain size, you can forget about
future mergers and acquisitions.” Europeans have founded
successful tech companies, but many moved to the U.S. before
starting them, the cofounder of the Center for New Liberalism, an
international movement of center-left activists, wrote last year. He
12 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
questioned whether the EU is simply overzealous, or if its

regulatory approach will “stop the continent from ever successfully
building its own tech sector.”
Semafor Signals
Insights from Al Jazeera, Al Quds, and Haaretz
The News
At least 15 countries, including the U.S., U.K., Germany, and

Japan, have suspended funding for the United Nations Relief and
Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), as a handful of
others have promised to keep funding the agency.
Israel has accused 12 UNRWA employees of being involved in the

Hamas attacks on Oct. 7. The staff members include individuals
who are alleged to have kidnapped a woman, handed out
ammunition, and taken part in a massacre at a kibbutz in Israel,
according to an Israeli intelligence report reviewed by The New
York Times. UNRWA said that it has terminated the contracts of the
accused staff members.
Israeli authorities allege that the connection between UNRWA and

Hamas goes deeper than these 12 staffers, telling U.S. officials that
around 10% of UNRWA’s Gaza staff have ties to militant groups in
the Gaza Strip, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The allegations reportedly played a key role in convincing

Washington and others to suspend aid to UNRWA. The
organization is one of the few aid groups able to operate in the
enclave during Israel’s military campaign.
SIGNALS
13 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
Lack of UNRWA funds could have devastating impact in Gaza

as soon as February
TIME Magazine, Al Jazeera, Al Quds
UNRWA does not have significant financial reserves, so the funding

suspensions may impact the agency’s services as soon as
February, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Sunday.
Aid groups have warned of a catastrophic humanitarian situation in
Gaza, with the World Food Programme estimating that Gaza is
getting less than 30% of the required aid. UN officials are worried
that UNRWA will be unable to fund the 150 shelters they run, which
are currently home to approximately 1.2 million Gazans. The
agency is also a key supplier of food, water, and medicine to
civilians. “The lives of people in Gaza depend on this support,” the
agency’s commissioner-general said.
Israel says UNRWA will not be a part of ‘the day after’ in Gaza
Haaretz, The Guardian, UNRWA
Israel is aiming to stop UNRWA’s activity in Gaza for the long term.
Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote on X that the refugee agency will
“not be a part of the day after,” the war, accusing the group of
worsening the refugee crisis, obstructing peace, and serving “as a
civilian arm of Hamas in Gaza.” There have been decades of
tension between UNRWA and Israel, which has accused the
agency of perpetuating the conflict by granting refugee status to the
descendants of Palestinians who were forced out of modern-day
Israel when the nation was established in 1948 and allowing anti-
Israeli sentiments to dominate its schools. UNRWA has dismissed
these claims, and has emphasized its neutrality in the conflict. It
has also criticized Hamas for stealing its supplies, and condemned
the storage of weapons in its facilities.
Arab countries could fill in UNRWA funding gap left by the

West
The 15 countries that have suspended their funding provided

UNRWA with more than 60% of its financing in 2022. Some
14 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
nations, including Norway, Ireland, and Spain, have said they will
continue to fund UNRWA. “We need to distinguish between what
individuals may have done, and what UNRWA stands for,” the
Norwegian government said. Spanish Foreign Minister José
Manuel Albares said that while Spain is tracking Israel’s
investigation closely, the accusations are aimed at only 12 out of
30,000 UNRWA employees. One former UNRWA spokesperson
told Al Jazeera that Arab states, which have not been major
funders of the agency so far, could make “UNRWA’s financial
problems disappear overnight” if they ramped up their contributions
to compensate for the drop-off in Western funding.
Semafor Signals
Insights from the Atlantic Council, The Economist, and The

Conversation
The News
Iran denied involvement in a drone strike near theJordan-Syria

border that killed three U.S. troops amid growing fears of an
expanding crisis in the Middle East.
The attack marked the first time American soldiers have been killed
by strikes in the region since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel.
The U.S. may have failed to stop the attack owing to confusion over
whether the enemy drone was one of their own, the Wall Street
Journal first reported Monday, citing U.S. officials.
Washington has accused Tehran-backed proxy militias of

conducting the strike. But Iran’s permanent mission to the United
Nations said: “Iran has no connection to these attacks, and the
clashes are between the U.S. army and resistance groups in the
region, who reciprocally confront each other.”
15 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
SIGNALS
Strike upends theory that US is managing Iran’s proxies
The attack “has proved false” the theory that Washington is

successfully managing the threat posed by Iran and its proxies in
the region, William Wechsler, senior director of the Rafik Hariri
Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, said. The
U.S. will need to respond — and that reaction should be calculated,
he argued. The response will need to be forcible, but avoid “the risk
of provoking a wider regional war.”
US must balance response against Iran’s possible political win
U.S. President Joe Biden has promised to retaliate for the assault,
and experts believe a response is very likely. But Washington
hasn’t struck targets in Iran since the 1980s, only engaging with
Iranian forces in Syria and Iraq, The Economist noted. The path
that Biden decides to take could seriously alter the trajectory of the
war: “This could signal a period of much more intense exchanges,
with more damage and higher casualties,” Gregory Brew, an Iran
expert at the Eurasia Group, told the outlet. Meanwhile, the
president needs to balance a show of force with the delicate
situation in the region. Carrying out strikes in Iraq against Iranian
forces “would further poison the relationship with the government in
Baghdad, handing Iran a political victory,” the newspaper noted.
Axis of Resistance shapes Iran’s influence over the Middle

East
Iran’s proxies — known as the “Axis of Resistance” — have

increasingly carried out strikes and other attacks since the onset of
the Israel-Hamas war. In the Red Sea, Houthi rebels have targeted
cargo vessels, and the Israel Defense Forces have repeatedly
exchanged fire with Hezbollah at the Israel-Lebanon border. The
axis isn’t a straightforward proxy system, and Iran doesn’t have full
control over the militias it partners with, Sara Harmouch and
16 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
Nakissa Jahanbani, experts on counterterrorism, wrote in The

Conversation. Rather, Iran uses these organizations to exert
additional influence in the region. Groups in the network have their
own agendas, and “while based on shared objectives and
ideologies, these alliances allow varying degrees of autonomy,” the
authors noted. The partnerships offer Tehran a counterbalance to
Washington’s influence in the region.
Semafor Signals
Insights from South China Morning Post, Bloomberg, and Qimo

Theory
The News
A Hong Kong judge ordered Chinese property developer giant

Evergrande to liquidate on Monday, signaling the end of a chapter
for the world’s most indebted developer and the poster child of
China’s real estate crisis.
The company, which owes more than $300 billion in debt, filed for a
three-month extension to finetune its restructuring plan, but Judge
Linda Chan rejected the appeal.
“Enough is enough,” Chan said, describing Evergrande’s submitted

plan as “not even a restructuring proposal, much less a fully
formulated proposal.” She appointed liquidators at Alvarez & Marsal
Asia to oversee the dissolution.
The historic ruling marks a significant judicial move by Hong Kong,

seen by many as a waning influence in global markets. Whether
Beijing decides to adopt the ruling, however, could have massive
implications for the already struggling Chinese economy.
SIGNALS
17 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
Beijing might make it difficult for overseas creditors to seize

mainland assets
The “road to liquidation will not be smooth” and will be the first
major test for a 2021 pilot measure that tasks mainland courts with
recognizing and adopting Hong Kong rulings in insolvency
proceedings, according to the South China Morning Post. While
overseas creditors will likely be able to quickly access offshore
assets, it remains unclear how much Beijing will help in seizing
onshore assets, which represent the majority of investments. The
millions of unfinished homes built by Evergrande in the mainland
“can’t be converted into cash, and valuations have decreased,” one
Deloitte crisis group leader told SCMP.
Hong Kong ruling shows how the city is still a

'superconnector' between East and West
Since the implementation of Hong Kong’s National Security Law —

the Beijing-imposed legislation that suppressed dissent in the city
and greatly reduced judicial autonomy — investors worldwide have
feared that the city no longer serves as a ”superconnector" between
the West and the mainland, according to the Economist. But many
creditors have chosen to challenge real estate developers in Hong
Kong courts, instead of the mainland, because “the city’s common
law system is familiar to them and fosters confidence,” Bloomberg
reported in November. Hong Kong is still a “superconnector,”
Bloomberg Opinions columnist Matthew Brooker argued, pointing to
how Hong Kong’s court rulings and its authorities’ actions since the
security law was implemented were “vividly displaying the reality of
the Chinese system to the outside world.” But, he added, “it’s just
not a superconnector in the way it wanted to be.”
Government intervention needed to control 'ripple effects' of

Evergrande’s collapse
Deutsche Welle, Qimo Theory
With real estate accounting for 25% of China’s GDP, Evergrande’s
18 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM
dissolution will “further weaken demand and shake China’s financial

system" as the country’s economy slows, German broadcaster
Deutsche Welle reported. Of the $300 billion Evergrande owes, the
vast majority is from deposits made by ordinary Chinese citizens
buying new homes. The ruling is likely to undermine confidence in
other real estate developers like Country Garden, according to
Qimo Theory — a Chinese investment blog — which could
potentially trigger a panic sell-off that will further decrease property
value and worsen other developers’ debt crisis. The ”ripple effect"
will impact consumer confidence and spending, “further dragging
down the recovery,” Qimo wrote. To achieve its economic goals,
Beijing needs to “reduce its dependence on real estate.”
19 of 19 1/30/24, 8:04 PM

Qatar Warns Any US Response To Iran Strike Threatens Hostage Negotiations Semafor

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Qatar warns any US response to Iran strike threatens hostage negotiation... about:reader?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.semafor.com%2Farticle%2...

Any US retaliation to Iran strike could

Insights from The Guardian, Al-Monitor, and Haaretz

Qatar on Monday warned Washington that any retaliatory strike on

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

If Biden gives in to political pressure, he risks setting off a

With many Republicans raring to castigate President Biden for any

Any retaliatory measures would provoke Tehran into driving

military targets on Iranian territory. But sources told Al-Monitor that

Netanyahu’s insult of Qatar risks isolating Israel and impacting

Reuters, Jerusalem Post, Haaretz

Recently leaked audio reportedly caught Israeli Prime Minister

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was given a 10-year

prison sentence for leaking state secrets, days ahead of Pakistan’s

The closed-door sentencing is the harshest legal action taken so far

In this latest case he was found guilty of disclosing the contents of

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Elections delayed until Khan barred from running

The Hindu, South Asian Voices

Khan, a former cricketer, is massively popular among the Pakistani

Military’s outsized influence on Pakistani politics likely started

columnist Ishaan Tharoor wrote in The Washington Post. Khan’s

Pakistan’s democratic institutions are backsliding

Successive Pakistani governments have dismantled many of the

Insights from Bloomberg, the South China Morning Post, and

‘Expats’ – a new Amazon mini-series set and filmed in Hong Kong

The six-part show, directed by Chinese-born American filmmaker

The Hong Kong authorities denied banning the show – which

Amazon Prime TV and Lulu Wang did not respond to Semafor’s

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Authorities bent quarantine rules to allow a show now seen as

Bloomberg, South China Morning Post

Another lawmaker, Dominic Lee Tsz-king, said authorities should

Director hits a nerve with comments that Cantonese is dying

Aaron McNicholas, Samuel Bickett

The show’s director Lulu Wang sparked controversy after wading

is traditionally spoken but use of Mandarin has soared since its

Wang drew fury on social media after posting on X that “Cantonese

Missing series raises questions over China-style censorship

Agence France-Presse, Reuters, The Guardian

While Hong Kong’s Commerce and Economic Development Bureau

Insights from The Wall Street Journal, Slate, The Guardian

Teenage Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva was handed a four-

With Valieva subject to a retroactive ban dating from December

A Kremlin spokesperson slammed Valieva’s ban as “politicized”.

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Doping of minors in frame as figure skating world seeks to

The Wall Street Journal, Slate, Sports Illustrated

“The doping of children is unforgivable,” the World Anti-Doping

Banning of a world great adds to Russia’s sporting woes

The Guardian, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal

The banning of a figure skater that The Guardian’s chief sports

The news came after Washington’s national security adviser Jake

While channels of communication between the two countries have

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

US may overestimate Beijing’s ability to minimize tensions in

China sent military vessels past Taiwan’s median line during

Time Magazine, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, The New

As China’s foreign minister reiterated that Taiwan remains the

Insights from Bloomberg, CFO Dive, and Foreign Policy

Amazon scrapped its $1.4 billion acquisition of iRobot, which

in a statement that “undue and disproportionate regulatory hurdles

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.