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Matching power demand to supply is not a problem specific to intermittent power sources. Existing
power grids already contain elements of uncertainty including sudden and large changes in demand
and unforeseen power plant failures. Though power grids are already designed to have some capacity
in excess of projected peak demand to deal with these problems, significant upgrades may be required
to accommodate large amounts of intermittent power.[10]
Several key terms are useful for understanding the issue of intermittent power sources. These terms
are not standardized, and variations may be used. Most of these terms also apply to traditional power
plants.
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Intermittency or variability is the extent to which a power source fluctuates. This has two
aspects: a predictable variability (such as the day-night cycle) and an unpredictable part
(imperfect local weather forecasting).[11] The term intermittent can be used to refer to the
unpredictable part, with variable then referring to the predictable part.[12]
Dispatchability is the ability of a given power source to increase and decrease output quickly on
demand. The concept is distinct from intermittency; dispatchability is one of several ways system
operators match supply (generator's output) to system demand (technical loads).[13]
Penetration is the amount of electricity generated from a particular source as a percentage of
annual consumption.[14]
Nominal power or nameplate capacity is the theoretical output registered with authorities for
classifying the unit. For intermittent power sources, such as wind and solar, nameplate power is
the source's output under ideal conditions, such as maximum usable wind or high sun on a clear
summer day.
Capacity factor, average capacity factor, or load factor is the ratio of actual electrical
generation over a given period of time (usually a year) to actual generation in that time period.
Basically, it is the ratio between the how much electricity a plant produced and how much
electricity a plant would have produced if were running at its nameplate capacity for the entire time
period.
Firm capacity or firm power is "guaranteed by the supplier to be available at all times during a
period covered by a commitment".[15]
Capacity credit: the amount of conventional (dispatchable) generation power that can be
potentially removed from the system while keeping the reliability, usually expressed as a
percentage of the nominal power.[16]
Foreseeability or predictability is how accurately the operator can anticipate the generation:[17]
for example tidal power varies with the tides but is completely foreseeable because the orbit of the
moon can be predicted exactly, and improved weather forecasts can make wind power more
predictable.[18]
Sources
Dammed hydroelectricity, biomass and geothermal are dispatchable as each has a store of potential
energy; wind and solar without storage can be decreased (curtailed) but are not dispatchable.
Wind power
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Because wind power is generated by large numbers of small generators, individual failures do not
have large impacts on power grids. This feature of wind has been referred to as resiliency.[36]
Solar power
Intermittency inherently affects solar energy, as the production of renewable electricity from solar
sources depends on the amount of sunlight at a given place and time. Solar output varies throughout
the day and through the seasons, and is affected by dust, fog, cloud cover, frost or snow. Many of the
seasonal factors are fairly predictable, and some solar thermal systems make use of heat storage to
produce grid power for a full day.[37]
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The impact of
intermittency of solar-
generated electricity will
depend on the correlation
of generation with
demand. For example, Seasonal variation of the output of the
solar thermal power plants solar panels at AT&T park in San
such as Nevada Solar One Francisco
are somewhat matched to
summer peak loads in
Dish Stirling
areas with significant cooling demands, such as the south-western
United States. Thermal energy storage systems like the small
Spanish Gemasolar Thermosolar Plant can improve the match between solar supply and local
consumption. The improved capacity factor using thermal storage represents a decrease in maximum
capacity, and extends the total time the system generates power.[42][43][44]
Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity
In many countries new large dams are no longer being built, because of the environmental impact of
reservoirs. Run of the river projects have continued to be built.[45] The absence of a reservoir results
in both seasonal and annual variations in electricity generated.
Tidal power
Tidal power is the most predictable of all the variable renewable energy sources. The tides reverse
twice a day, but they are never intermittent, on the contrary they are completely reliable. Only 20 sites
in the world have yet been identified as possible tidal power stations.[46]
Wave power
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All sources of electrical power have some degree of variability, as do demand patterns which routinely
drive large swings in the amount of electricity that suppliers feed into the grid. Wherever possible,
grid operations procedure are designed to match supply with demand at high levels of reliability, and
the tools to influence supply and demand are well-developed. The introduction of large amounts of
highly variable power generation may require changes to existing procedures and additional
investments.
The capacity of a reliable renewable power supply, can be fulfilled by the use of backup or extra
infrastructure and technology, using mixed renewables to produce electricity above the intermittent
average, which may be used to meet regular and unanticipated supply demands.[52] Additionally, the
storage of energy to fill the shortfall intermittency or for emergencies can be part of a reliable power
supply.
In practice, as the power output from wind varies, partially loaded conventional plants, which are
already present to provide response and reserve, adjust their output to compensate. While low
penetrations of intermittent power may use existing levels of response and spinning reserve, the
larger overall variations at higher penetrations levels will require additional reserves or other means
of compensation.
Operational reserve
All managed grids already have existing operational and "spinning" reserve to compensate for existing
uncertainties in the power grid. The addition of intermittent resources such as wind does not require
100% "back-up" because operating reserves and balancing requirements are calculated on a system-
wide basis, and not dedicated to a specific generating plant.
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Some gas, or hydro power plants are partially loaded and then controlled to change as demand
changes or to replace rapidly lost generation. The ability to change as demand changes is termed
"response". The ability to quickly replace lost generation, typically within timescales of 30 seconds to
30 minutes, is termed "spinning reserve".
Generally thermal plants running as peaking plants will be less efficient than if they were running as
base load. Hydroelectric facilities with storage capacity (such as the traditional dam configuration)
may be operated as base load or peaking plants.
Grids can contract for grid battery plants, which provide immediately available power for an hour or
so, which gives time for other generators to be started up in the event of a failure, and greatly reduces
the amount of spinning reserve required.[53][54]
Demand response
Demand response is a change in consumption of energy to better align with supply. It can take the
form of switching off loads, or absorb additional energy to correct supply/demand imbalances.
Incentives have been widely created in the American, British and French systems for the use of these
systems, such as favorable rates or capital cost assistance, encouraging consumers with large loads to
take them offline whenever there is a shortage of capacity, or conversely to increase load when there is
a surplus.
Certain types of load control allow the power company to turn loads off remotely if insufficient power
is available. In France large users such as CERN cut power usage as required by the System Operator -
EDF under the encouragement of the EJP tariff.[55][56]
Energy demand management refers to incentives to adjust use of electricity, such as higher rates
during peak hours. Real-time variable electricity pricing can encourage users to adjust usage to take
advantage of periods when power is cheaply available and avoid periods when it is more scarce and
expensive.[57] Some loads such as desalination plants, electric boilers and industrial refrigeration
units, are able to store their output (water and heat). Several papers also concluded that Bitcoin
mining loads would reduce curtailment, hedge electricity price risk, stabilize the grid, increase the
profitability of renewable energy power stations and therefore accelerate transition to sustainable
energy.[58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65] But others argue that Bitcoin mining can never be sustainable.[66]
Instantaneous demand reduction. Most large systems also have a category of loads which instantly
disconnect when there is a generation shortage, under some mutually beneficial contract. This can
give instant load reductions (or increases).
Storage
At times of low load where non-dispatchable output from wind and solar may be high, grid stability
requires lowering the output of various dispatchable generating sources or even increasing
controllable loads, possibly by using energy storage to time-shift output to times of higher demand.
Such mechanisms can include:
Pumped storage hydropower is the most prevalent existing technology used, and can substantially
improve the economics of wind power. The availability of hydropower sites suitable for storage will
vary from grid to grid. Typical round trip efficiency is 80%.[10][70]
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Electricity produced from solar energy tends to counterbalance the fluctuating supplies generated
from wind. Normally it is windiest at night and during cloudy or stormy weather, and there is more
sunshine on clear days with less wind.[76] Besides, wind energy has often a peak in the winter season,
whereas solar energy has a peak in the summer season; the combination of wind and solar reduces the
need for dispatchable backup power.[77]
In some locations, electricity demand may have a high correlation with wind output,particularly in
locations where cold temperatures drive electric consumption (as cold air is denser and carries
more energy).
The allowable penetration may be increased with further investment in standby generation. For
instance some days could produce 80% intermittent wind and on the many windless days
substitute 80% dispatchable power like natural gas, biomass and Hydro.
Areas with existing high levels of hydroelectric generation may ramp up or down to incorporate
substantial amounts of wind. Norway, Brazil, and Manitoba all have high levels of hydroelectric
generation, Quebec produces over 90% of its electricity from hydropower, and Hydro-Québec is
the largest hydropower producer in the world. The U.S. Pacific Northwest has been identified as
another region where wind energy is complemented well by existing hydropower.[78] Storage
capacity in hydropower facilities will be limited by size of reservoir, and environmental and other
considerations.
It is often feasible to export energy to neighboring grids at times of surplus, and import energy when
needed. This practice is common in Europe[79] and between the US and Canada.[80] Integration with
other grids can lower the effective concentration of variable power: for instance, Denmark's high
penetration of VRE, in the context of the German/Dutch/Scandinavian grids with which it has
interconnections, is considerably lower as a proportion of the total system. Hydroelectricity that
compensates for variability can be used across countries.[81]
The capacity of power transmission infrastructure may have to be substantially upgraded to support
export/import plans. Some energy is lost in transmission. The economic value of exporting variable
power depends in part on the ability of the exporting grid to provide the importing grid with useful
power at useful times for an attractive price.
Sector coupling
Demand and generation can be better matched when sectors such as mobility, heat and gas are
coupled with the power system. The electric vehicle market is for instance expected to become the
largest source of storage capacity. This may be a more expensive option appropriate for high
penetration of variable renewables, compared to other sources of flexibility.[82] The International
Energy Agency says that sector coupling is needed to compensate for the mismatch between seasonal
demand and supply.[83]
Electric vehicles can be charged during periods of low demand and high production, and in some
places send power back from the vehicle-to-grid.[84][85]
Penetration
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Penetration refers to the proportion of a primary energy (PE) source in an electric power system,
expressed as a percentage.[14] There are several methods of calculation yielding different penetrations.
The penetration can be calculated either as:[86]
1. the nominal capacity (installed power) of a PE source divided by the peak load within an electric
power system; or
2. the nominal capacity (installed power) of a PE source divided by the total capacity of the electric
power system; or
3. the electrical energy generated by a PE source in a given period, divided by the demand of the
electric power system in this period.
The level of penetration of intermittent variable sources is significant for the following reasons:
Power grids with significant amounts of dispatchable pumped storage, hydropower with reservoir
or pondage or other peaking power plants such as natural gas-fired power plants are capable of
accommodating fluctuations from intermittent power more easily.[87]
Relatively small electric power systems without strong interconnection (such as remote islands)
may retain some existing diesel generators but consuming less fuel,[88] for flexibility[89] until
cleaner energy sources or storage such as pumped hydro or batteries become cost-effective.[90]
In the early 2020s wind and solar produce 10% of the world's electricity,[91] but supply in the 40-55%
penetration range has already been implemented in several systems,[6] with over 65% planned for the
UK by 2030.[92][93]
There is no generally accepted maximum level of penetration, as each system's capacity to compensate
for intermittency differs, and the systems themselves will change over time. Discussion of acceptable
or unacceptable penetration figures should be treated and used with caution, as the relevance or
significance will be highly dependent on local factors, grid structure and management, and existing
generation capacity.
For most systems worldwide, existing penetration levels are significantly lower than practical or
theoretical maximums.[86]
Maximum penetration of combined wind and solar is estimated at around 70% to 90% without
regional aggregation, demand management or storage; and up to 94% with 12 hours of storage.[94]
Economic efficiency and cost considerations are more likely to dominate as critical factors; technical
solutions may allow higher penetration levels to be considered in future, particularly if cost
considerations are secondary.
Estimates of the cost of wind and solar energy may include estimates of the "external" costs of wind
and solar variability, or be limited to the cost of production. All electrical plant has costs that are
separate from the cost of production, including, for example, the cost of any necessary transmission
capacity or reserve capacity in case of loss of generating capacity. Many types of generation,
particularly fossil fuel derived, will also have cost externalities such as pollution, greenhouse gas
emission, and habitat destruction which are generally not directly accounted for. The magnitude of
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the economic impacts is debated and will vary by location, but is expected to rise with higher
penetration levels. At low penetration levels, costs such as operating reserve and balancing costs are
believed to be insignificant.
Intermittency may introduce additional costs that are distinct from or of a different magnitude than
for traditional generation types. These may include:
Transmission capacity: transmission capacity may be more expensive than for nuclear and coal
generating capacity due to lower load factors. Transmission capacity will generally be sized to
projected peak output, but average capacity for wind will be significantly lower, raising cost per
unit of energy actually transmitted. However transmission costs are a low fraction of total energy
costs.[95]
Additional operating reserve: if additional wind and solar does not correspond to demand patterns,
additional operating reserve may be required compared to other generating types, however this
does not result in higher capital costs for additional plants since this is merely existing plants
running at low output - spinning reserve. Contrary to statements that all wind must be backed by
an equal amount of "back-up capacity", intermittent generators contribute to base capacity "as
long as there is some probability of output during peak periods". Back-up capacity is not attributed
to individual generators, as back-up or operating reserve "only have meaning at the system
level".[96]
Balancing costs: to maintain grid stability, some additional costs may be incurred for balancing of
load with demand. Although improvements to grid balancing can be costly, they can lead to long
term savings.[97][98][99][100]
In many countries for many types of variable renewable energy, from time to time the government
invites companies to tender sealed bids to construct a certain capacity of solar power to connect to
certain electricity substations. By accepting the lowest bid the government commits to buy at that
price per kWh for a fixed number of years, or up to a certain total amount of power. This provides
certainty for investors against highly volatile wholesale electricity prices.[101][102][103] However they
may still risk exchange rate volatility if they borrowed in foreign currency.[104]
Examples by country
Great Britain
The operator of the British electricity system has said that it will be capable of operating zero-carbon
by 2025, whenever there is enough renewable generation, and may be carbon negative by 2033.[105]
The company, National Grid Electricity System Operator, states that new products and services will
help reduce the overall cost of operating the system.[106]
Germany
In countries with a considerable amount of renewable energy, solar energy causes price drops around
noon every day. PV production follows the higher demand during these hours. The images below show
two weeks in 2022 in Germany, where renewable energy has a share of over 40%.[107] Prices also drop
every night and weekend due to low demand. In hours without PV and wind power, electricity prices
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rise. This can lead to demand side adjustments. While industry is dependent on the hourly prices,
most private households still pay a fixed tariff. With smart meters, private consomers can also be
motivated i.e. to load an electric car when enough renewable energy is available and prices are cheap.
Steerable flexibility in electricity production is essential to back up variable energy sources. The
German example shows that pumped hydro storage, gas plants and hard coal jump in fast. Lignite
varies on a daily basis. Nuclear power and biomass can theoretically adjust to a certain extent.
However, in this case incentives still seem not be high enough.
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Renewable and conventional energy production in Germany over two weeks in 2022. In hours with low wind and PV
production, hard coal and gas fill the gap. Nuclear and biomass show almost no flexibility. PV follows the increased
consumption during daytime hours but varies seasonally.
Electricity market in Germany over two weeks in 2022. With the integration of solar PV, prices drop around noon
every day in spite of a higher demand. Prices also drop every night and weekend due to low demand. A high
availability of wind power causes the low prices on the right half. In hours without PV and wind power, the most
expensive substitute set the price. The extreme levels for natural gas in 2022 were caused by Russian's invasion in
Ukraine. The low availability of French nuclear power during these months increased the demand for exports.
See also
Combined cycle hydrogen power plant
Energy portal
Energy security and renewable technology
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Further reading
Sivaram, Varun (2018). Taming the Sun: Innovation to Harness Solar Energy and Power the
Planet. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. ISBN 978-0-262-03768-6.
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External links
Grid Integration of Wind Energy (http://www.wind-works.org/articles/GridIntegrationofWindEnergy.
html) Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20120510064213/http://wind-works.org/articles/GridInt
egrationofWindEnergy.html) 2012-05-10 at the Wayback Machine
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