Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INDEX
ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................ 6
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LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
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ACRONYMS
LF Load Factor
O/D Origin/Destination
PT Public Transport
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The overall objective of the project is to produce a Transport and Mobility Master Plan (TMMP),
which aims at identifying the investments required to develop the urban transport system of
Khartoum in the short, medium and long term. The Master Plan includes Policies, Strategies, and
Tools needed to implement the transport investments identified taking into account also the major
ongoing and planned investments in Khartoum.
Thus, the Transport and Mobility Master Plan is a design and planning tool, which aims at creating
a roadmap for future transport-related investments in Khartoum. The master plan is part of a life
cycle approach for transport infrastructures and services development.
The overall life cycle approach includes six tasks, which are represented in the following figure.
3. Action plan: to
decide, under budget
5. Operation: to
5 3 constraints, on multi-year
implement the programme transport investments
defined at the and measures (services,
programming stage 4 infrastructures, and
4. Preparation: to prepare regulation)
implementation of the action
plan (detailed design and
scheduling)
Implementation Analysis and Strategy
1. Diagnostic, to define the “as is scenario” and clearly understand the current situation of
a transport system (e.g. current weakness, bottlenecks, etc). This task includes data
collections, surveys, analysis of data collected, transport modelling, etc.
2. Strategy, to develop a vision of the transport network (services, infrastructures and
regulation) based on the comprehension of the as is scenario. Thus, this task aims at
identifying the policies and the investments required to overcome the current bottlenecks
and gaps of the transport system and to satisfy the level of services requested by the
citizens taking into account the evidence from task 1.
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Furthermore, by use the model calibrated in task 1, the decision makers can also test the
impacts of the policies identified with the transport model before the implementation phase
and eventually modify or adjust the chosen policies.
3. Action plan, to decide, under budget constraints, on multi-year transport investments and
measures (services, infrastructures, and regulation), on the basis of the specific
performances of the various measures and actions tested in task 2. The action plan
includes the definition of indicators for the monitoring and evaluation of the transport
policies and investment chosen by the policy makers.
4. Preparation, to prepare implementation of the action plan (detailed design and
scheduling)
5. Operation, to implement the programme defined at the programming stage
6. Monitoring and evaluation, to monitor the results and the impact of the programme and
to compare with the strategic objectives defined during planning
The TMMP includes the development of three phases, which are perfectly coherent with the first
three tasks of the life cycle approach:
Phase 1 Data collection and analysis (“Diagnostic”)
Phase 2 Strategy development (“Strategy”)
Phase 3 Implementation plan (“Action Plan”)
This document presents the main outcomes of the activities carried out in the Phase 1
(Chapter2) of the Terms of References of the Khartoum transport and mobility master plan.
The extensive survey, data analyses and model development carried out in this phase generated
the following main findings:
Availability of a structured database of all demand and traffic surveys carried out from
2010 (households survey, roadside surveys, counting, speed counts, bus surveys etc.);
in-depth knowledge of the as-is situation of transport demand in Khartoum (origin,
destination, purpose, mode and routing of the trips);
availability of a database of the transport supply (road network graph with link attributes),
essential to any coherent modelling exercise;
development and calibration of the transport model, useful both to assess the current
situation and, particularly, to simulate alternative future scenarios;
Possibility to migrate the model framework (databases and functions) to any commercial
platform for traffic modelling.
The Consultants carried out this Report taking into account also the comments received
by the Client during the meetings held in Khartoum on May 2011.
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The objective of this chapter is to provide with a sound understanding of the current transport
situation in Khartoum end a solid basis for the forthcoming activities. More in detail, this chapter
provide with the main findings of the review analysis of existing documentation and outcomes the
surveys carried out by the Consultant.
As concerns the review of literature data, the main source of information analysed by the
Consultant is the Khartoum Structural Plan, which include information about demographic data,
ongoing and planned development projects, identification of main projects likely to generate traffic,
etc.
Furthermore, the knowledge about the current situation and ongoing development in the transport
sector in Khartoum has been investigated by implementing different surveys:
Traffic and public transport passenger counts (i.e. roadside survey, traffic counts, special
survey, public transport surveys)
Household Survey (i.e. demographic and socio-economic statistics, journey’s purpose and
length of the trip, modal split, number of trips, main transport demand)
This chapter provide with the main findings of the survey while the detailed description of all data
collected is included into the Annex.
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1. The planning of a system of ring roads within the urban area (bounded by the centres of
Khartoum, Khartoum North and Omdurman).
2. The planning of an outer ring road bounding most of the areas built during the period 1980-
2000.
3. A system of interchanges and intersections between the ring roads and the town original
networks comprising flyovers, tunnels and traffic lights.
4. A system of bridges some of which are part of the ring road Rivers crossing.
5. Khartoum new international airport, which is about 40 km South West of Khartoum town
centre in southern Omdurman.
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The following figure shows the localisation of the projects described above.
Figure 2 Sites of the main projects included into the Khartoum Structure Plan
Recently, however, a corporation was created with the intention of introducing large capacity
buses. This seems to be more of a business oriented body with some of the main pre-requisites
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All of quarters, that are base unit for Location, has been aggregated in 338 zones with the goal to
create homogenous zones with a similar number of inhabitants grouping quarters with similar
features. Another important criterion has been position in relation to nearest road network.
This is mainly for private cars. It is most appreciable in the town centers in Khartoum, Omdurman
and Khartoum North. It is found on main streets as well as side roads. It is characterized by
whimsical car orientation, protrusion into the street itself and mixes of inclined and parallel parking.
The duration is long; 7-8 hours while in the more commercial and trading areas they may be as
short as 30 minutes for shoppers and as long as 12 hours for shop owners. The pattern varies
between morning, midday, afternoon, early evening and late evening. The most competitive
parking time is midday and early afternoon.
Recently built commercial, office and hotels are required to provide a certain floor ratio/park places
for their cars and those of their visitors. In this context the practice of basement parking facilities
is becoming more and more common and ranges between 1-2 basement parking zones.
Here again the town centers exhibit special parking problems. The concentration of higher
education facilities and main health/medical services have created major attraction points for
users and generated increasing need for medium term parking but within specific time space of
the day and evening. This feature, however, extends to newly established private health facilities
in residential areas and mostly converted from existing buildings. In the majority of cases the
locations are abutting on main streets with absolutely no attention to parking demand and
sometimes ambulant parking.
Khartoum is generally characterized by a low car ownership ratio. At the residential level the low
density of the city allows for a wider area spread of individual family car/s with possible provisions
of parking within plot boundary. The recent developments aiming at higher residential densities in
the form of 3-7 story apartment blocks have created new parking situation and lead to congestions
in specific areas, zones and streets. The general policy here is that developers must provide within
plot parking areas at the rate of parking lot per 60m2 of built floor area. This specification is not
always met.
Parking control is generally undertaken by the traffic police authority who exercises their
regulatory powers through a set of legal interventions. Both the parking activity and the
interventions are not compatible with the need for parking regulation. On the one hand the parking
zone/areas are neither conspicuously defined nor respected. Penalties are rarely imposed and
supervision is thinly practiced. Overall it can be said that the parking policy for Khartoum specially
at town centers is practically limited in scope and implementation.
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The Consultants designed and implemented an extensive survey on private and public transport.
The survey aims to clearly understand the current transport situation in Khartoum and to define a
solid database for the construction and calibration of the Khartoum transport model. Data
collected during the survey regard current traffic patterns, traffic counts of private vehicles, and
public transport passenger counts at selected road-network locations, terminals and on board of
public transport vehicles. The Consultants designed the counting methodology, selected the
survey locations and defined the related scheduling. In more detail, the Consultants carried out
the following surveys:
Roadside survey. This survey lasted two weeks, between July and August 2010. The
Consultants selected 38 locations on the roadside and carried out 19.152 interviews in six
intervals of one hour each and for each running direction. The following information have
been collected:
o vehicle type and number of passengers for each vehicle, and
o origin and destination of the journey, purpose and duration.
Traffic counts, which included:
o Counting of vehicles on streets: counters collected data manually on the roadside
in 38 locations of the city. It has been noted that for each hour interval and running
direction, 10 classes of vehicle passed in 24 hours.
o Counting of vehicles on bridges: survey has been conducted with automatic
counters on eight bridges of the city.
o Special surveys: data collected manually by some counters in the main points of
interest of the city (hospital, university, airport, etc.).
o Speed counts: automatic surveys of vehicles speed and length for each direction
of the 19 sections surveyed from 8:00 to 10:00.
o Travel time surveys: surveys on seven different paths across the city of Khartoum
with a floating car, recording travel time on regular intervals.
Public transport survey, which encompassed:
o Public transport on board surveys by the manually counting of passengers getting
on/off at every stop during 18 or 12 trips for each of the 148 lines in the whole day.
o Public transport passengers surveys through on board interviews to passengers
during 18 or 12 trips for each of the 148 lines in the whole day. The questions
posed included: journey's origin, destination, purpose, frequency, mode of
transport before and after the trip on the bus.
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o Public transport drivers surveys: drivers were interviewed on the number of trips
per day for each line and the average trip time at peak hours in the day.
The following tables provide an overview of the main characteristics and outcomes of the
Roadside survey.
Survey characteristics
Period 14 days 25/7/2010-11/8/2010 on weekdays
Each location has been considered in both
Number of locations 38
directions
7:00-8:00; 8:00-9:00; 9:00-10:00; 15:00-16:00;
Intervals of time 6
16:00-17:00; 17:00-18:00
Total interviews 19.152 252 interviews for each direction and location
Main outcomes of the survey
People per car 2.87 Average
People per taxi 2.52 Average
Most used transport mode Car
Main purpose Work
A roadside survey database has been filled with all the data collected during the survey (see the
figure below).
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The following figure shows the 38 locations selected to carry out the survey around Khartoum.
Legend:
: Outer surveys
: Inner survey
: Khartoum centre survey
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The following figure shows the observed composition of the vehicles circulating during the survey
in the selected locations.
Figure 5 Composition of vehicles (%)
The following figure shows the journey purpose declared by the people interviewed during the
survey.
Almost 60 percentage of
interviewees declared that the
purpose of their journey is related
to work reasons.
The 27 percentage of the people
declared “other” purposes for their
journey.
More than the 8% of interviewees
declared to move for social
reasons.
Only the 2% of the people stated a
journey purpose related with
education (school).
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Within the context of the Roadside survey, The Consultants collected also information about origin
and destination of the trips. The following maps show the districts (Figure 7) and O/D couples
(Figure 8) with the highest number of trips.
The total number of surveyed trips (Figure 8), with private car, outside the origin quarter, is 15.974.
The maximum number of trips between and origin and a destination monitored during the survey
is 29 (0,2% of the total, corresponding to about 3.500 trips / day).
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Omdurman Bahri
Khartoum
Khartoum
Legend:
White boxes: counted number of trips per day with private car and declared travel time. : Trip running direction
The Consultants executed the traffic counts for both passenger and freight vehicles. The following
table provide an overview of the main characteristics the Traffic count survey.
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The figures below show the counting locations identified by the Consultants in Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri.
Omdurman
Khartoum
Khartoum
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In order to define a clear picture of peak hours and traffic flow during the day, the vehicles flow
has been analysed through different indicators. The Consultants collected and analysed the
following data:
Peak hour in each location;
Hourly traffic flow for each type of vehicle (i.e. private car, motorcycle, bicycle, large truck,
small truck, large bus, minibus, amjad, taxi and raksha);
Hourly traffic flow for vehicle category (i.e. private cars, motorcycle and bicycle, trucks, all kind
of collective transport vehicles);
Total hourly traffic flow.
Figure 10 shows the pick hour in each location under observation during the survey. Locations
report peak hour mainly in the morning, between 7:00 and 9:00, and in the evening, between
18:00 and 19:00. The morning peak hours correspond to the movement of the people from home
to work or other destinations. Vice versa, the evening peak hours are related to traffic flow from
workplace or other locations and home.
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For each location included in the survey, the Consultants monitored and recorded many
indicators. The following example (Figure 11) shows the traffic flow per hour recorded for each
type of vehicle in the road section B1 in both directions (from East to West and from West to East).
In the first direction (from East to West), the peak hour of private car is in the morning (10:00) and
it corresponds to the traffic flow from home to workplace or other destinations. Vice versa, the
peak hour observed from West to East is in the afternoon (16:00) and it concerns the traffic flow
from workplace or other location to home.
Figure 11 Measured hourly traffic flow for each type of vehicle* (Point B1)
Direction from
East to West
Direction from
West to East
* Private car, motorcycle, bicycle, large truck, small truck, large bus, minibus, amjad, taxi and raksha
Figure 12 presents the traffic flow aggregated by vehicle categories. More in detail, all kind of
vehicles for collective transport have been included into the public transport. The graph shows
that while the traffic flow of private cars has one evident peak in the morning and another one in
the afternoon, the traffic flow of the public transport show a more regular trend during the day.
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Direction from
East to West
Direction from
West to East
* Private cars, motorcycle and bicycle, trucks, all kind of vehicles for collective transport
The following picture shows the total traffic flows of all the vehicles recorded in all the sections
monitored during the survey. Coherently with data recorded in the point B1, the higher level of
traffic is in the morning from 8:00 to 11:00 and in the afternoon between 16:00 and 19:00.
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The Consultants carried out the counting also in highly charged road sections, and specifically on
the bridges. Recent counts (performed in February 2011) confirmed very high traffic level on
several bridges, above 60-70.000 vehicles / day as shown in the following figure. The lower level
of traffic has been recorded on the Halfaya bridge. This bridge has been recently built and open
to the traffic. It is part of a greater project, which includes the construction of a road axis in the
north part of Khartoum. Thus, the low level of traffic observed could be justified by the current low
level of accessibility of the bridge both from Omdurman and Bahri.
Figure 14 Daily flow of vehicles recorded across the bridges (8 bidirectional sections), 2011
16.923
66.861
39679
74.393
Khartoum 71.174
61.759 Omdurman Khartoum 52.881
60.056
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According to the results of the special survey, the airport and the bus terminal in Bahri appear
highly charged in specific hours of the day.
Table 4 Traffic flows recorded in the peak hour in (potentially) highly charged locations
373 1431
453 883
144
36
Hotel Burj Alfatah (Private car,09:00-10:00) Industrial area - Soba (Freight vehicles, 09:00-10:00)
8
32 9
35
The speed count survey has been carried out during March-April 2011. The Consultants selected
19 different sections. The following figure shows the locations of each section used for the speed
count.
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The following diagram shows the speed distribution observed in the sections monitored during
the speed count. The survey shows that the greater number of vehicles has a speed between 25
and 40 kilometres per hour.
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The travel speed observed on the main street of Khartoum (i.e. Africa Street) is coherent with the
speed distribution monitored in the other locations used for the survey. The following figure shows
that most of vehicles have a speed between 15 and 30 km/h.
In March 2011, the Consultants observed the speed of vehicles also with a floating-car (Figure
18).
Khartoum
Khartoum
May 2011
Path n.1: Halfaya – Alsoug Almarkazi; Path n.2: Kalakla – Aljamaa Street; Path n.3: Manshia Bridge – Halfaya;
Slide 81 Path n.5: Kassala
Street – Shambat; Path n.6: Jamhuria Street – Al Steen Street; Path n.7: Burri – Jamuria road
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In the central area of the city (between Engaz, White Nile, Macnimir, Blue Nile Bridge and the
airport), speed is around 20-30 km/h.
The Consultants recorded a higher speed only outside Greater Khartoum, where the maximum
counted average speed observed was about 50 km/h.
Based on the speed and flow recorded during the count speed, the Consultants represented a
speed / flow diagram. The following figure represents the vehicle speed / traffic flow diagram for
the Baladia section (equivalent flow calculated at intervals of 10 minutes). These two variables
have a characteristic relationship according to both transport theory and empirical observations.
However, data collected in the Baladia section show that there is not a clear relationship between
the speed of the vehicles and the traffic flow. This particular phenomenon could be due to different
factors, such as unfair behaviour of the drivers, unexpected road narrowing, interaction of vehicles
with very different speed, interaction with pedestrian traffic, not regulated traffic at road junctions
or between main roads and side roads, etc. The same situation recorded on the Baladia section
has been observed also in all the other sections analysed.
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During the speed count, the Consultants recorded also other data such as traffic flow per day.
More than 30.000 vehicles / day cross the highly congested link sections (among those ones used
for speed counts).
Figure 20 Congested link sections (among those ones used for speed counts), 2011
Morada
30570
Nile Jamaa
15929
13636
30284
Jamurria 9924 Baladia
Based on the counting carried out by the Consultants, the following findings can be highlighted:
most of the vehicle speeds are concentrated between 25 and 40 km/h;
only few records registered a vehicle speed over 50 km/h;
a direct relationship between traffic flow and speed is apparently missing.
Data collection on the Public Transport (PT) Lines encompasses three different types of surveys:
1. Public Transport on-board survey
2. Public Transport passengers survey
The Consultants analysed 148 public transport lines in Bahri-Sharg El Nile (46 lines), Khartoum
(33 lines) and Omdurman (69 lines). A PT database has been set up in order to organise and
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manage the collected data. The total number trips analysed is 2.548. Data collected for each trip
recorded into a database.
The Consultants carried out the survey between May and September 2010, in the weekdays, from
Sunday to Thursday. For each of the 148 public transport lines included into the survey, the
number of available surveyed trips was between 12 and 18. The Consultants monitored each line
during one day. All the data collected during the PT on-board survey have been used to fill in a
SpatiaLite database. The following table shows an example of data inserted into the database.
Even if the survey has been conducted during all the day, the greater number of trips has been
analysed in two time windows: the first one in the morning (07:00-08:00) and the second one in
the afternoon (14:00-15:00). The following figure shows the number of trips per hour monitored
during the day.
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Minibus is the main vehicle monitored during the survey. The 99,4 percentage of surveyed trips
correspond to lines in which the mean of transport is minibus, as shown into the following figure.
The PT on-board survey allowed to obverse the number of passengers coming in and out of the
bus stops and terminals. The following picture shows the number of persons got on and off a bus
at each stop from the origin to the destination of the trip.
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The following map shows five traffic flows corresponding to the first five O/D couples recorded
into the PT surveys database. The OD couples with the higher number of recorded trips have
Omdurman as destination.
454
448
59
1019
Trip direction
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Another relevant indicator calculated on the base of the PT on board survey is the minibus load
factor per line. The following figure presents the load factor (LF) observed for each line during the
survey.
The following figure shows the number of passengers recorded per line in three different peak
hours: 7:00 - 8:00; 11:00 - 12:00, and 17:00 and 18:00. Data collected shows that the afternoon
peak is half-sized compared to the morning peak.
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The following figure shows the PT lines with highest number of incoming passengers during the
morning peak hour (07:00-08:00).
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Bahri-Elsamrab East
The following figures show the sum of on-board passengers observed on all the transport public
services, which operate on each link. Link are coloured with different colours and thickness, as
shown in the legend, in basis of different number of detected on-board passengers. These
elaborations provide with aggregated data for each road link, without a differentiation among
different PT lines. If a link is bi-directional, a different value of on-board passengers, one for each
direction, can be observed.
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The Consultants interviewed the passengers on board the lines that have been monitored during
the PT on-board survey. For each surveyed PT line, there are usually 216 passengers available
to interview, that is to say 12 interviews for each trip.
The interviews allowed the collection of additional information concerning, for instance, the
purpose of the trip, or the origin and destination of the journey. All the data collected through the
interviews have been recorded into the SpatiaLite database. The Consultants carried out a total
number of 30.350 interviews.
As concerns the purpose of the trip, the following graph shows the main findings of the survey.
More than the 60% of the trips have home or the workplace as a destination.
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Another interesting data collected through the interviews is about the mode of transport used. The
most used mode of transport both in the initial trip and the final trip is walking followed by public
transport.
Figure 34 Initial mode of transport (%)
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The Consultants conducted the household survey in all the seven Localities. The following figure
shows the number of interviews carried out in each Locality. In Figure 37, the percentage of
surveyed householders in one Locality relative to all Localities is highlighted in red.
1.36 %
Khartoum
Furthermore, Khartoum includes 1.345 quarters, with an average population of around 3.800
people per quarter and an average density of about 83 people per hectare.
The following figure shows the density per quarters.
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In order to cover as much quarters as possible, the Consultants carried out an extensive
household survey and evenly distributed the survey questionnaires all over Khartoum.
The main characteristics of the household survey are presented below:
The survey has been conducted on 108 quarters that represent about 8% of total number
of quarters. The following figure shows the quarters covered by the survey.
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The total quarters area is approximately 179.000 ha and the area of each quarter is on
average 133 ha;
For each surveyed quarters, the population sample is around 7,3% of the total population
of Khartoum;
Interviews allowed to collect data on journeys’ origin and destination, and mode of
transport used for almost 45.000 trips.
Table 7 describes the fields of the questionnaire submitted to the households by the Consultants.
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All data collected during the household surveys have been recorded in the SpatiaLite database.
Table 8 shows a database extraction as an example.
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According to the performed survey, the mean number of household members is five, even if most
of families have six members (Figure 40).
As concerns the age of the population, data collected shows that the inhabitants of Khartoum are
quite younger with an average age of about 29 years.
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Figure 42 shows around 48% of surveyed householders have a monthly income minor of 500
pounds, while about 36% earn between 500 and 1000 pounds; only about 16% of surveyed
householders earn more than 1.000 pounds per month.
The Figure 43 shows the number of cars for each householder (absolute value and percentage).
A sample of about 8.600 householders has been evaluated.
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Number Percentage
More than 70% of surveyed householders have no car. Around 30% of the total sample has at
least one car (24% has one car, 6% has more than 1 car). This fact underlines the importance of
Public Transport in Khartoum. Figure 44 shows that the lack of car ownership is higher in Um
Badda (79,31%) and Jabel Awlia (76,13%) Localities.
Karari
71.51 % Bahri
64.11 %
Shareg Alnil
Um Badda 73.57 %
79.31 %
Khartoum
58.96 %
Omdurman
73.52 Jabel
% Awlia
76.13 %
As for the journeys’ purposes (Figure 45), approximately 50% of records refers to the type ‘Home’;
while about 28% registers ‘work’ as type of journey followed by ‘school’ (16,7%).
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(28%)
(49.8%)
(16.7%)
(0.5%)
On average a journey requires 37 minutes. with significant differences according to the hour time.
As shown in Figure 46, longer trips are recorded in early morning (4:00-6:00) and at night (20:00-
23:00) while shorter trips resulted in the daylight (8:00-15:00).
The Figure 47 shows the modal split in percentage values. A sample of about 44.389 interviews
has been evaluated. In 53% interviews, ‘minibus’ is the transport mode used for the first trip,
followed by walking (16%) and private car (11%).
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Figure 48 shows the modal split estimated from traffic counts. According to traffic counts,
minibuses are used by 67% of the trips (right pie) even if they represent 23% of vehicles (left pie).
Considering different average load factor for each mode of transport, Figure 49 represents the
modal split for trip purpose.
Minibus is the most used mode in all journeys’ purposes, with highest share in work-related trips
(more than 59%) followed by ‘walking’ (with highest share for ‘school’ purpose) and ‘car’ (with
highest share for ‘work’ purpose).
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As for the number of trips, there is a peak in the morning at 7:00. In the afternoon, there is a peak
equally distributed during 16:00-17:00.
The database contains 44.632 valid records; each record corresponds to one journey. The
number of interviewees reporting to have at least one trip is 21.126. Generally, the first journey is
performed in the morning-time while second journey is concentrated during the afternoon.
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The total number of surveyed trips outside the origin quarter is 38.180. The maximum value of
trips observed from/to an origin/destination is 316 (0,8% of the total). This value corresponds to
around 16.000 trips / day.
The following map shows five traffic flows corresponding to the first five O/D couples recorded
into the Household surveys database. The OD couples with the higher number of recorded trips
are in correspondence of importance internodes of transportations, such as bus terminals.
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316
316
243
244
188
The collected data for traffic count, public transport passenger count and household mobility have
been used to develop OD matrices.
The OD matrices have been developed by trip purpose (work and non-work), time of day and
mode of transport (private cars, service taxis, mini-buses and large buses).
The following sections describe the proposed models considering the following elements:
three scenarios based on time of day in the base year (i.e. Morning peak, Afternoon peak
and Evening peak);
Two transport categories: Private (i.e. car and taxi) and Public sectors (i.e. minibus).
The scenarios do not consider the weekend matrix (i.e. Friday and Saturday).
The methodology is coherent with the “Four Step Model” represented in the figure below:
1. Trip generation: this model provides the number of trips generated in each Traffic
Analysis Zone (TAZ) considering factors like number of inhabitants, car ownership,
income level.
2. Trip distribution: this model defines people distribution among TAZs according to
number of employment, land use and distance between zones.
3. Modal split: the model distributes the number of trips among the available transport
modes.
4. Route assignment: the model allocates the number of trips to paths on specific
networks.
The Consultants used the outcomes of the performed surveys as inputs to determine the transport
demand. Specifically, each survey provide specific inputs as explained below:
In the Generation model, Household surveys provide the number of inhabitants per zone;
Supply characteristics determine the distance between zones used in the Distribution
model;
The percentage of trips per each transport mode comes from the Household surveys,
while the percentage of trips during peak hours in the day time comes from the Roadside
surveys;
The modal split model used the traffic counts data.
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The following paragraphs provide with the results of a first run of the transport model in the as is
scenario (2010). The Consultants calibrated the model on the base of independent variables
which have been selected considering the following criteria:
availability of data at the requested level of detail;
reliability of the relation between of dependent variables with the independent ones (e.g.
population of a zone with respect to generated trips).
Accordingly, this first calibrated model is able to provide a good level of representation of the “as
is” traffic situation as observed in the surveys. However, enhancement of the proposed model
(e.g. by adding additional explanatory variables) will be tested before simulating future scenarios.
The Generation model looks for a relationship among trips starting in a given zone and the socio-
economic features of the zone. A linear regression model has been assumed to find a correlation
between the generated trips and number of residents in each quarter.
The household surveys give the number of households in each quarter. Therefore, considering
an average of six people in each households, the number of residents of each quarter has been
calculated.
The figure below shows the relationship between trips generated in each quarter (considering all
the day, all transport modes and all purposes) and the population data of the household surveys.
2000
1000
500
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Population
The following equation describes the relationship between population and number of trips:
The above equation shows that around the 40% of people of each quarter has at least one trip
during the day, with a good correlation level (R2=0,95).
In this way, it is possible to evaluate, in a deterministic mode, the number of trips generated in
each TAZ by aggregating the population of the quarters.
The Distribution model evaluates the distribution among zones of the trips generated from the
model. The model aims at estimating the probability that a trip generated by an origin zone will be
attracted by a destination zone.
The Model has been developed by using the Biogeme1 tool, an open source freeware designed
for estimating discrete choice models. Within the context of this project, this tool has been applied
for estimating the parameters of a multinomial logit model.
The starting point is the OD matrix of the morning peak hour (i.e. 9:00-10:00) generated from the
household surveys. Since, according to the results of counting vehicles, the morning peak hour
for total vehicles is 9:00-10:00. The total number of trips gathered from the household surveys on
the quarters starting between 9:00-10:00 has been aggregated by TAZs.
The multinomial logit model has the shape of a model with 338 alternatives, as many as the
number of destination zones.
Through the emission coefficient estimated in the Generation model, it has been evaluated the
trips originated from each zone during all day and during the morning peak hour (with the peak
hour factor deriving from the surveys).
It has been considered also an “availability condition”, as attribute that indicates if a choice
feasibility.
As first step of Khartoum's model, given the trips generated from a zone, it has been assumed
that the choice of a destination is possible if the travel time between the origin and the destination
is within 2 hours, with an average speed of 30 km/h.
The probability expression of each origin i to choose the destination j is:
𝒆𝑽𝒊𝒋
𝑷𝒊𝒋 =
∑𝒋 𝒆𝑽𝒊𝒋
1 Bierlaire, M. (2003). BIOGEME: A free package for the estimation of discrete choice models , Proceedings of the 3rd Swiss
Transportation Research Conference, Ascona, Switzerland.
Bierlaire, M. (2008). An introduction to BIOGEME Version 1.6, biogeme.epfl.ch
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In the current scenario (2010), the modal split is coherent with the percentage produced in the
household surveys.
By analyzing the household surveys, it is possible to evaluate the features of people move during
the day, that represents the number of trips they do, how long time do they take and the
distribution in the hours of the day.
The characteristics of the first and second journey are similar and together they represent almost
the 95% of all the trips surveyed. Moreover, the comparison of relative distribution of 1 st and 2nd
journey along all day notice a similar percentages of 1st journey during morning peak and 2nd
journey during afternoon-evening peak.
Based on these journey distributions, the Consultants assumes matrices of afternoon and evening
peak as transpose of morning peak matrix. It is plausible to consider that 1st journey in the morning
peak is a home-work journey while 2nd journey, in the afternoon or evening peak, is a work-home
journey, with the same percentage of the 1st one and including about 90% of the whole journeys.
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In addition, the analysis of average duration of the journeys let to find out that only about 2% of
all records have duration longer than 2 hours.
Thus, it is possible to consider 2 hours such maximum time duration of journeys, with a mean
value of speed equal to 30 km/h.
Both the private and the public matrices have been updated with the values of the relative surveys.
The private matrix has been updated with the values coming from the counting vehicles on 38
sections. The Consultants took into account the surveys related with car and taxi in the time slot
9-10. Starting matrices of passengers has been transformed in vehicles matrices, using the mean
number of people per vehicle coming out from the household surveys, that is 2,87 people per
private car and 2,52 people per taxi. The sum of these two matrices has been updated with the
sum of car and taxi surveyed. The result is a private matrix of 11.131 vehicles in morning peak
hour (9-10). The afternoon (13-14) and evening (17-18) peak hour matrices are the transpose
matrix of the first one, so they have the same value of vehicles.
The public matrix has been updated with the surveyed passengers getting on/off the minibus in
the morning peak hour (9-10), aggregating the movements of passengers of each stop on the
belonging zone and considering them like trips coming in and out the zone. The process of update
has given a public matrix of 65.461 passengers in morning peak hour (9-10). The afternoon and
evening peak hour matrices are the transpose matrix of the morning one, so they have the same
value of vehicles.
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The previous paragraphs summarised the main finding of the surveys about private and public
transport data, and quantified the existing mobility flows within Khartoum. Before modelling future
demand, we propose targets for future mobility in Khartoum. These targets have been defined for
the planning horizon of the greater Khartoum Master Plan. Targets are expressed in quantitative
terms where possible and cover transport, safety, environmental and socio economic aspects.
The following table presents a first proposal of targets, the value of each one at 2010 (if available)
and the target value at different time horizons.
Time horizon
Value in the
Type of Short Long
Target base year Medium term
target term term
(2010) (2020)
(2015) (2030)
Extension of not paved roads
170 km1 150 100 50
(km)
Road network length (2 lanes)2 1.720 km 1.750 km 1.750 km 1.750 km
Transport Road network length (4 lanes)3 122 km 150 km 250 km 350 km
network
New bridges (number)4 n.a. 3 3 4
Length of the rail network (km) 0 0 20 40
Number of rail lines 0 0 2 4
Average transit speed (km/h)
Transport 15-30 km/h 30 km/h 35 km/h 40 km/h
(public and private)
services
Modal share of public transport About 60% 60% 60% 60%
Levels greenhouse gas Reduction Reduction of Reduction
n.a.
emissions (mainly CO2) of 20% 35% of 50%
Environmental
Levels of pollutant emissions Reduction Reduction of Reduction
n.a.
(mainly NOX, PM) of 20% 35% of 50%
Reduction Reduction of Reduction
Number of accidents n.a.
of 20% 35% of 50%
Reduction Reduction of Reduction
Safety Number of casualties n.a.
of 20% 35% of 50%
Reduction Reduction of Reduction
Number of seriously injured n.a.
of 20% 35% of 50%
1 The extension of not paved roads refers only to the more relevant sections included into the transport model. Thus, the not paved
roads have actually a higher extension with respect to the data included into the table.
2The road network length represents the total length of the links included into the transport model. The target have been set up
considering in the short term the upgrading of 1 line roads to 2 line roads (about 26 km).
3The extension of not paved roads refers only to the more relevant sections included into the transport model. The target have been
set up considering, in the short term, the upgrading of 3 line roads to 4 line roads (about 25 km) and in the medium and long term the
construction of 200 km of new roads (i.e. the ring road and new road access to Khartoum from/to the ring road).
4 Number the new bridges included into the Khartoum Structural Plan
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5The value of modal share of public transport observed in 2010 is very high in comparison with other African and European cities.
Considering that the number of private cars will growth in the future, the appropriate target to be achieved appears to maintain the
current modal share of public transport also in the medium and long term.
Some of the targets presented into the table above (i.e. average transit time, extension of not
paved roads, etc) will serve as reference for modelling of future scenarios. The final list of targets
will be agreed with the Client. Furthermore, the Consultants could adjust or change the targets on
the base of the outcomes of the transport model simulations.
2.6.1. Translite
Translite is a suite of algorithms for assignment of transport demand either on private and public,
completely open source and distributed under LGPL 3 license. It’s fully written in Python: hence,
it can run on every platform that supports GCC compiling system. Moreover it’s fully integrated
with GIS system and its data are fully handled by using SQL queries.
Translite supports the following algorithms:
All or Nothing assignment [cfr. Urban Transportation Network , Yosef Sheffi];
Incremental assignment [cfr. Urban Transportation Network , Yosef Sheffi];
Frank & Wolf User Equilibrium assignment [cfr. Urban Transportation Network , Yosef
Sheffi];
Gradient Projection User Equilibrium assignment [cfr. A Faster Path-Based Algorithm for
Traffic Assignment, R. Jayakrishnan et al];
O-D matrix adjustment [cfr. A gradient approach for the O-D- matrix adjustment problem,
Heinz Spiess];
Public transport assignment.
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In order to run Translite, no special HW is needed but a fast system is advisable in order to reduce
the computation time, especially for wide network.
Translite is fully tested on Linux platform but can be used also on MAC OSX and Windows; in
order to use it, Python 2.5 is required:
http://www.python.org
Translite is fully integrated with Sqlite and its spatial exstension Spatialite: both libraries have to
be properly installed in the system:
http://www.gaia-gis.it/spatialite
http://www.sqlite.org
The following figure shows the theoretical representation of the transport network.
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The model has a structure based on nodes connected by links, classified according to the function
of the road in the network, and zone’s centroids, representing trip’s source and connected to the
network with connector links.
This structure is represented in Translite with a “scenario”. Being based on Sqlite, all the data of
a scenario can be stored and handled (either table and raster) by using SQL language.
All the input data are included in three table: node, link and demand.
Table NODE need 5 fields:
- eid: univocal id of each node;
- x: x spatial coordinates;
- y: y spatial coordinates;
- z: z spatial coordinates;
- geometry: geometry of each node.
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Translite is fully further integrated with GIS system; so every single scenario database can be
directly visualized by using common OS GIS system like Quantum GIS or Spatialite GIS.
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Moreover, every geographical layer can be natively exported as Esri© Shapefile in order to totally
ensure its integration in every contest.
The output database of an assignment process contain a new table node and new table link with
flows and costs, in terms of time, on each link.
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Figure 61 Layout of output GIS visualization – flow and saturation on the links
In case of an updating matrix process, the demand output table has a field with initial OD flow
(named od) and a field with new updated flows (named flow).
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Each zone is connected to the network with a connector, a link that connect the centroid of the
zone with the nearest node of the network.
In the figures below are shown the quarters coloured on the basis of TAZ: same colour means
same zone.
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CLASSIFICATION
Major roads
Secondary roads
Local roads
OMDURMAN BAHRI
KHARTOUM
At the beginning of January 2011 Halfaya Bridge was opened: this link was not included in the
first road network so it was built another network with this bridge.
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CLASSIFICATION
Major roads
Secondary roads
Local roads
Halfaya Bridge
OMDURMAN BAHRI
KHARTOUM
In reference to 2010 network, the length of total road network is about 1.890 km divided as follow:
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NUMBER OF LANES
1 lane
2 lanes
3 lanes
4 lanes
OMDURMAN
BAHRI
KHARTOUM
Moreover, considering the pavements of roads, in the network of 2010 there are 1723 km of paved
roads and 170 km of unpaved roads.
PAVEMENTS
paved
unpaved
BAHRI
OMDURMAN
KHARTOUM
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Finally, sharing out the road network of the model on the Administrative Units is possible to define
the density of roads per area of Administrative Unit.
As it is possible to see in the table below, the Administrative Unit with more density of model’s
road network are:
Khartoum Centre
North Khartoum
Almurada
Hay Alarab
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Both networks (at 2010 and 2011), has been processed for working with Translite, carrying out
network in which each link is monodirectional, so a track road is represented by two
monodirectional link. In this way 2010 network has 5936 links and 2346 nodes, while the new
network has 5940 links and 2346 nodes.
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The minibus network has a good distribution in the city of Khartoum. More in detail, it has almost
the same length extension of the road network; it is obviously just a little less dense.
Figure 69 Road network: assignment of morning peak hour (9-10) private matrix
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Figure 70 Road network: assignment of morning peak hour (9-10) private matrix – zoom on central
area
From the public assignment for the morning peak hour is possible to notice four main routes
approaching to the city, from north-west, west, south-west and south-east. These are preferential
directions to get to the central part of the city, Omdurman and North Khartoum.
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Figure 71 Minibus network: assignment of morning peak hour (9-10) public matrix
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Figure 72 Minibus network: assignment of morning peak hour (9-10) public matrix – zoom on central
area
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3. NEXT STEPS
The Consultants has setup the model in order to get a transport model best fitting the observed
transport traffic distribution and fulfil the objectives of the Khartoum Transport and Mobility Master
Plan.
Generation model
Generation model will be improved taking into account household surveys data about monthly
income and car ownership in addition to population.
Distribution model
Also distribution model will be improved taking into account data coming from the land use. More
in detail, based on household surveys, a relationship will be found between the distribution of
main destination zones and the relative land use.
Modal split
Even the modal split will be enhanced analysing typical features of private transport, such as car
ownership and fuel cost, and features from public transport, such as ticket’s cost and distance
between quarters and PT lines.
For each model, the Consultants will test several functions including the additional explanatory
variables indicated above. The functions will be compared according to the capability to represent
the observed traffic distribution and on this base the function model will be selected.
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LIST OF ANNEXES
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distribution of flows. The most recurrent value of peak hour, with the highest vehicle flows,
are 7-8, 8-9 and 9-10.
Page 4 – All vehicles flows on weekdays: the graph reports the sum of all vehicles of every
location, in terms of vehicles per hour, in each hour of the day. From here is possible to
deduce what hours are the peak ones for every surveyed point, that is 9-10 in the morning,
13-14 in the afternoon and 17-18 in the evening.
Page 5, 6, 7 – Counting vehicles on weekdays per location: distinguishing the three part
of the city, (Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri) in each graph is reported the sum of flows
(vehicles per hour) of all the day surveyed, divided per vehicle type, in each location.
Page 8 – Counting vehicles on weekdays per vehicle type: this graph summarize all the
surveyed flows (vehicles per hour) in every survey’s day and in every location, per vehicle
type. It shows, as is possible to deduce from “Counting vehicles 1”, that the higher number
of vehicles passed on survey’s section was relative to private cars, with a sum of almost
500000 veh/h in all the location during all the surveying period. The second mean of
transport for number of vehicles is the minibus, followed by amjad.
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Page 6 – Flows at the University: the graphs report each vehicle type flows (veh/h) coming
in and out from the University, from 7 to 17. The most used mean of transport for
approaching to the University is walking.
Page 7 – Flows at the Hotel Burj Alfatah: the graphs report each vehicle type flows (veh/h)
coming in and out from the Hotel Burj Alfatah, from 8 to 17. The most used mean of
transport for approaching to the Hotel Burj Alfatah is private car.
Page 8, 9, 10, 11 – Terminal: the graphs report flows of minibus (veh/h) coming in and out
from the four main bus terminal of the city, Alistad, Alshuhada, Bahri Central and Karker,
in three interval time of 3 hours, 6-9, 10-13 and 15-18.
Page 12, 13, 14, 15 – Industrial Area: the graphs report each vehicle type flows (veh/h)
passing in two direction of four Industrial Area in Khartoum, from 7 to 17. The most used
mean of transport for approaching to the Industrial Area is private car and walking.
Page 16, 17, 18, 19 – Freight Vehicles: the graphs report each commodity type weight
(ton of food, building material, petroleum material and other commodities) brought by
freight vehicles in and out from Alelafon, Aljiali, Dongla Street and Soba, in 24 hours.
For each PT-Line is reported each trip detected during Public Transport Surveys, referred to
specific hourly interval.
In 'x'-axis there is sequence of links crossed by PT-Line in its path. This sequence is made of
Labels; each Label contains id of two Locations: departure Location and arrival Location.
In this elaboration aren’t shown data referred to single part of path when this link is internal to
same Location.
In 'y'-axis for each Label, it's shown corresponding number of on-board passengers.
If there's more than one detected trip in the considered hourly-interval, each new trip is reported
in a new slide, with a new histogram, with a different number of trip-type.
For each PT line, where it's possible, it's shown, in the right side at the top, an image referred to
shapefile of PT-line's path.
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