lOMoARcPSD|35741058

VUCA - Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity

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 lOMoARcPSD|35741058

UNIVERSITY OF SAINT ANTHONY

(Dr. Santiago G. Ortega Memorial)
City of Iriga

GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

Name of student: APRIL MICAH V. MAMPO Year/Course: Doctor of

Philosophy 1
Professor: DR. JOSE B. BALLESTEROS Subject: EDUCATION 505
Topic/s: VUCA
Date submitted: 08/30/2020

DEFI
NITI
ON OFVUCA

VUCA i sanac ronym t

hatstandsf orvol
ati
li
ty,uncer
tainty,complexi
tyand
ambiguit
y,ac ombinationofqualit
iesthat ,t
akentoget
her,character
izethenatur
e
ofsomedi ffic
ultcondi ti
onsand situations.Thetermi salsosomet i
messaidto
st
andf ortheadj ec
tives:vol
ati
le,uncertain,compl
exandambi guous.

Volat
il
it
yi sthequal it
y ofbeingsubj ecttof r
equent ,rapid and signific
ant
change.Inavol ati
lemar ket
,forexampl e,thepricesofcommodi ti
esc anr i
seorf al
l
considerabl
yi nashor tperi
od ofti
me,and t hedirect
ionofat r
end mayr everse
suddenly.Unc ert
aint yisa c omponentoft hatsi t
uation,i n which events and
outcomes are unpredi ct
abl
e.Compl exityi nvol
ves a mul t
ipli
cit
y ofi ssues and
fact
ors,some ofwhi ch may be intr
icatelyinterc
onnec ted.(Some model s also
incl
udec haoti
c,maki ngtheac r
onym VUCCA. )Ambi guityismani f
estedinal ack
ofclari
tyandt hedifficul
tyofunderstandingexac tl
ywhatt hesi t
uationis.

The term VUCA or i

ginated wit
ht he United States Army WarCol lege t
o
descri
be condit
ions result
ing fr
om the Cold War .The VUCA c onc
epthas si nce
been adopted t
hroughoutbusi nessesand organizationsin manyi ndust r
iesand
sect
orstogui del eadership and st
rat
egy planning.An awar enessoft hef or
ces
repr
esented i
nt heVUCA modeland st r
ategiestomi t
igatethehar mt hey might
causeareintegraltocrisi
smanagementanddi sasterrecoveryplanning.

COVID- 19 i
s notj usta maj orheal t
h care problem affect
ing count r
ies
wor l
dwide;itisalsohavi ngadevast ati
ngi mpacton busi ness.Tohel pleader s
manage t he challenges faci
ng their organiz
ations due t ot he pandemi c,I
recommend a cust omized one-day wor kshop f
ollowing the VUCA ( volatil
ity
,
uncer t
aint
y,compl exi
ty and ambi guity)model ,as t he types ofchal lenges
l
eader scurrentl
yfacear esimilartothatmodel .

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 lOMoARcPSD|35741058

UNIVERSITY OF SAINT ANTHONY

(Dr. Santiago G. Ortega Memorial)
City of Iriga

GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

CORONAVI
RUS’I
MPACT

The COVI
D-19 pandemicisthe gr
eatest chal
lenge we’
ve f
aced si
nce
Wor
ld WarII
.Todate,t
henumberofreport
ed casesiscloseto5 mill
ion,and
t
henumberofdeat
hsexceeds300,
000worl
dwi de.

Thepandemi cisalso havi

ng a devast
at i
ng i
mpacton business.People
arelosingj obsandincome,wi t
hnowayofknowi ngwhennormalcywi llr
eturn.
TheI nternat i
onalLaborOrganizati
on esti
matest hatt
hepandemi ccould cost
195mi l
li
onj obs.Evenwhent heshor t
-ter
m effect
send,thel
ong-t
erm economi c
impactwi llrippl
eforyear
s.

CORONAVI
RUSAND VUCA

Allfourchar
act
eri
sti
csofVUCA ar
etr
ueoft
hechal
lengeswef
aceduet
o
t
hecoronavir
us:

Volat
il
ity:Changesduet
oCOVI
D-19ar
etaki
ngpl
aceever
yday
,unpr
edi
ctabl
e,
dramaticandfast.

Uncer
tai
nty:Noonecanpr
edictwit
hconfidencewhent
hepandemi
cwi
llendor
whenwewi l
lhaveacur
eorvacci
nation.

Complexi
ty:The pandemici
s affect
ing allaspect
s ofl
if
e— i ncl
udi
ng heal
th
car
e,business,t
heeconomyandsoci all
ife— incomplexways.

Ambigui
ty:Thereisno“ bes
tpract
ice”t
hator
gani
zat
ionscan f
oll
ow t
omanage
thechal
lengescausedbythepandemic.

Volati
le.On 31 December2019,Chi neseoffic
ialsconfirmed dozensofcasesof
pneumoni afrom anunknownc ause,andthenaweekl ater
,on7Januar y2020,
the outbr
eak was i denti
fied as a new coronavirus.Si ncethen,thousands of
peoplehavebeen i nfect
ed wor l
dwideand Covi d-
19 cont i
nuestopresentheal
th
expertswithafast-
movi ngsituati
on.

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 lOMoARcPSD|35741058

UNIVERSITY OF SAINT ANTHONY

(Dr. Santiago G. Ortega Memorial)
City of Iriga

GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

Uncert
ain.Thenextphasesoft
heoutbreakareunc
ertai
n.Thevoi
dofi
nfor
mat
ion
hasledtoglobalt
rauma,whichisevi
dencedbypanicbuyi
ng.

Complex.Bec auseoftheglobalspread,t
herearesomanyint
erc
onnect
edfact
ors
thati
tisdiffic
ulttof
ull
yanal yset
hewi despr
eadimpac
toft
hevirusandit
seffec
t
onvarioussec ti
onsofsoc
iety.

Ambiguous.Covid-19 i
sexcept
ionaland unprecedent
ed.Thel astepidemicthat
camec l
osetothesc aleofwhatwear eexperi
encingwastheSARS out breakin
2003.Itl
astedforninemonthsandmor ethan8, 000peopl
ewer ei nf
ected.Covi
d-
19hasal r
eadyinfectedal
most200t i
mest hatnumberandc ounting.

LEADI
NG WI
TH VUCA

Successf
ull
eader
scan useadi
ffer
entVUCA modelt
obui
ldt
hei
rst
rat
egi
esf
or
l
eadingduri
ngthiscr
isi
s:

VI
SION

Effecti
vel eadersdonotal l
ow changet ocloudtheirvi si
on;however,theymight
revise theirst r
at egy t
o achieve thatvisi
on.I nt heir1996 Har vard Busi
ness
Revi ew ar ti
cle“ Buildi
ng Your Company’ s Vi
sion,” Jim Coll
ins and JerryI .
Por ras wr otet hat a vi si
on consists oftwo mai ne lement
s and t wo sub-
element s:t hecor eideology(consisti
ngofcor evaluesandacor epur pose)and
theenvi sioned fut ure(BHAGsf or10 to30 yearsf rom thepresentand avi vi
d
descr i
ption).

Inthisti
meofchange,leader
sshouldsti
ckt othei
rcoreval
ues;corepurpose;
and t
heirambiti
ousbig,hair
y,audaci
ousgoals(BHAGs).Ofcourse,theycan
amendt hei
rst
rategi
estomatchthesit
uation,buttheymustalwayskeeptheir
vi
sioninmind.

Changesduet
oCOVI
D-19ar
etaki
ngpl
aceever
yday
,unpr
edi
ctabl
e,dr
amat
ic
andfast
.

UNDERSTANDI
NG

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 lOMoARcPSD|35741058

UNIVERSITY OF SAINT ANTHONY

(Dr. Santiago G. Ortega Memorial)
City of Iriga

GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

Dur i
ngsuch aqui ckly-changingandunpr edictableenvironment ,leader
smust
ful
lyunder stand t hosechangesand t hei
ri mpacton t heirbusinessand t hen
develop strategies to manage t hese changes.I n hi
s 2008 Har vard Business
Review ar ti
cle“ The Five Compe t
iti
ve Forces ThatShape St rategy,
” Michael
Porterhi ghli
ght edt hefivefor
cest hatmayaffectt hes t
rategyofanypr oductor
service in a compe t
iti
ve mar ket envi
ronment :t he t
hr eat ofnew ent rant s,
buyer s’bar gaining power ,rivalry with exist
ing compe t
itor
s, the threat of
subst it
utesandsuppl i
ers’bargaini
ngpower .

Theimpor t
anceofeachoft hesef orcesdiffersfrom onei ndus tryt
oanother.For
example,intourism industry,thecur rentmai n drivingforcesarethethreatof
substi
tutes and buyer s’bar gaini
ng power , whi l
ei n the digi
tal market
ing
indust
ry,thet hreatofnew ent rant
sandr ival
ryagai nstexitingcompeti
torsare
thekeyfactors,duet otherisingt r
endt owar ddigitizat
ion.Leadersmustst udy
thechangesint heseforcesandamendt hei rstrategiesaccordingl
y.

CLARI
TY

Mostorganiz
at i
ons’empl oyeescurr
entl
yhaveques ti
onsr egardi ngjob security
andincomest abil
ity
.Inhi sbook“The21I rr
efutableLawsofLeader ship,”John
Maxwellemphasi zed t
hei mportantofcommuni cati
ngc l
earlywi t
h empl oyees.
Law No.10,“ TheLaw ofConnect i
on,”advisesleaderst o“communi catewi t
h
opennessandsi nceri
ty”;“f
ocusont hem,notyour sel
f”;and“ offerdirecti
onand
hope.
”

Forexampl e,if
,af t
ertrying al lot heropt ions,seniorleaders deci
de t
ol ower
employees’sal
aries ortol ay off par toft he workforce,they mustbe ablet o
clear
lycommuni catethejustificationf ortheirdecisi
onandofferal lthesupport
theycanpr ovi
det othestafftheyl ai doff.

ADAPTABI
LITY AND AGI
LITY

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 lOMoARcPSD|35741058

UNIVERSITY OF SAINT ANTHONY

(Dr. Santiago G. Ortega Memorial)
City of Iriga

GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

To face the significantchanges caused by t

he cor onavirus,leaders mustbe
flexi
bleand agi l
eand adaptt hei
rst rat
egiesbased on t henew si t
uation.They
shoul dreevaluat eal lenvi
ronmentaland compe tit
ivef orcesand eitheramend
theircurrents trategyoradoptanew st rat
egytor ealiz
et heirgoals.

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