MILITARY RADAR

TRENDS AND ANALYSIS REPORT

2016
CONTENTS
About the research 3
Analysis of factors driving innovation and demand 4
Overview of challenges for R&D and implementation of new radar 7
Analysis of most significant challenges for military radar operators 8
Overview of most attractive or lucrative market over next decade 11
Analysis of companies expected to have biggest impact on radar innovations 12
Analysis of cognitive radar potential 14
Overview of demand for radar over ten years 17

Military Radar 2016 18

ABOUT THE RESEARCH
In recent years, there have been a
number of key developments in
radar technology which have
enhanced radar capabilities for
militaries worldwide. The technology
provides critical capability for armed
forces. Recent advancements in
range, detection, identification,
integration with other sensors, and
adaptability to new missions,
platforms and environments, make it
one of the most dynamic and
progressive markets for industry and
military stakeholders.
Ahead of the Military Radar
conference (30 August – 1
September, 2016 in London, UK),
Defence IQ commissioned a survey
of technical experts and industry
professionals to gauge how the
market is evolving and to identify the
key trends in the market over the
next ten years.
FIGURE 1:
ANALYSIS OF RESPONDENT BY DOMAIN OF PRIMARY INTEREST
20%
39%
Page 3
This report looks to analyse the data
and provide an insight into the future
of the radar market. It analyses the
scope for growth over the next ten
years and focuses on the key
factors driving innovation, the
challenges for developing and
implementing new technologies,
regional markets targeted for
growth, and identifies the key
industry players in the market. The
data has also been provided as an
average of all sectors – see the
graphs filled in with red for this
overview.
Respondents were asked to identify
their primary area of interest,
allowing the data to be segmented
into air, land, and sea domains,
providing a unique perspective from
specific comers of the radar sector.
Figure 1 highlights the split between
air, land, and sea respondents.
41%
Air
Land
Sea
 UAVs DRIVE DEMAND FOR RADAR TECH
The increased use of UAVs is the from the use of unmanned systems
most significant factor driving in theatre as well as in urban
innovation and demand in the radar environments.
market according to 70% of
respondents. This data is The development of advanced
segmented by air, land, and sea electronic warfare systems (56%)
respondents in Figure 2a, but the that radar will need to combat and
graph below reveals that the improvements in passive radar
dramatic rise of the UAV market is capabilities (50%) were also
having a huge impact on radar identified as key drivers over the
technology as new threats emerge next decade.

FIGURE 2: ALL RESPONDENTS

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS DRIVING INNOVATION AND DEMAND
IN THE RADAR MARKET OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Increased use of UAVs

Advanced ballistic missiles

Stealth submarines

Stealth aircraft

Electronic warfare systems

Fast patrol craft

Adaptability (increased multi-mission use on new platforms)

More powerful and compact components using GaA/GaN

Advancements in algorithms making big data more usable

Open architecture systems

Improved passive radar capabilities

Increased civil-military cooperation

Increased use of radar in urban environments

Further AESA radar advancements

Page 4
 FIGURE 2a: DOMAIN SPECIFIC RESPONSES
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS DRIVING INNOVATION AND DEMAND
IN THE RADAR MARKET OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS
Air Land Sea
250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

Page 5
BUDGETS TOO LIMITED, TECH MOVING TOO FAST
Looking at Figure 3, the biggest
challenge for the development and
implementation of new radar
technologies over the next decade
relates to budget limitations. All
respondents from air, land, and sea
domains identified budget
restrictions as the key issue
preventing either R&D into new
radar technologies or the acquisition
of commercial solutions.
The development of the same or
similar radar technologies in
isolation – i.e. where there is little
communication or knowledge
sharing between partners – and the
rapid advancement of new radar
technologies that can lead to
premature obsolescence of other
Page 6
systems were also identified as key
challenges.
The biggest discrepancy between
respondents from the three sectors
(Figure 3a) centered around the
rapid technology progression of
radar leading to premature
obsolescence. Almost half (49%) of
respondents from the land domain
identified this as a key challenge
while just 22% working within the
maritime sector did. According to
the data, radar experts and end-
users in the air domain tend to be
more risk averse than – nearly half
(48%) highlighted the fear of making
an expensive mistake as a
challenge for stakeholders,
compared to 23% in the land domain.
 FIGURE 3: ALL RESPONDENTS
OVERVIEW OF BIGGEST CHALLENGES FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW
RADAR TECHNOLOGIES OVER THE NEXT DECADE
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

TechnologyTechnology
developmentdevelopment
in isolation (limited
in isolation
knowledge
(limited
sharing between
knowledge partners)
sharing between partners)

Budget limitations

Research simply being ignored

Risk aversion to making "expensive mistakes"

Rapid technology
Rapid technology progressionprogression leading to
leading to premature
premature obsolescence
obsolescence

Other

FIGURE 3a: DOMAIN SPECIFIC RESPONSES

OVERVIEW OF BIGGEST CHALLENGES FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW
RADAR TECHNOLOGIES OVER THE NEXT DECADE
Air Land Sea
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Technology Budget limitations Research simply Risk aversion to Rapid technology Other
development in being ignored making "expensive progression leading
isolation (limited mistakes" to premature
knowledge sharing obsolescence
between partners)

Page 7
 FIGURE 4: ALL RESPONDENTS
ANALYSIS OF MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES FOR MILITARY RADAR OPERATORS
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Urban or sea clutter

Wind farm disruption

Rain fade

Radar shadow

A2/AD

Shifting tidal areas

Limited cooperation with civilian authorities

Targets manoeuvring through dense foliage

Limited or incomplete training

Prevalence of target detection false alarms

Interference from competing signals

Congestion across the electromagnetic spectrum

Difficulties of detecting small / low / slow targets

Identifying multiple threats at different altitudes

THE MILITARY OPERATOR’S PERSPECTIVE

Thinking specifically about the
challenges for military operators in
Figure 4 (as opposed to those for
technical and commercial
stakeholders in Figure 3), the
problems in detecting small, low,
and slow targets was identified as
the critical issue over the next ten
years. Over two-thirds of
respondents (67%) highlighted this
as a challenge, which corresponds
to the analysis in Figure 2 where the
proliferation of UAVs was seen to be
a key driver for improvements in
radar technology.
Congestion across the
electromagnetic spectrum (55%),
identifying multiple threats at
different altitudes (43%), and urban
or sea clutter (43%) were all
identified as other challenges.

Page 8
 FIGURE 4a: DOMAIN SPECIFIC RESPONSES
ANALYSIS OF MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES FOR MILITARY RADAR OPERATORS
Air Land Sea
200%

180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Page 9
All EYES EAST
Although Asia-Pacific is generally

“
seen to be the most attractive or
lucrative market for radar demand
over the next decade across the
three domains (Figure 5), those
Recent
working within the air sector actually advancements
identified Eastern Europe their key
target (Figure 5a). in range,
Countries in the region – including
detection,
Romania and Poland particularly – identification,
are increasingly beginning to play a
central role in NATO’s air and integration
missile defence capabilities. For
example, in one of the most
with other
significant European missile sensors, and
defence developments in recent
years, the Aegis Ashore ballistic adaptability to
missile defence facility at the
Deveselu facility in Romania was
new missions,
declared operational on 12 May. platforms and
Lockheed Martin’s Aegis Ashore is environments,
the first operational land-based
version of the Aegis Ballistic Missile
make it one of
Defence system, a sophisticated the most
collection of phased-array radars,
fire control directors, computers and dynamic and
missiles. Another Aegis Ashore
facility is also underway at the
progressive
Redzikowo Base in Poland, again markets for
underscoring the growing market for
new radar technologies in the industry and
region.
military
stakeholders.

Page 10
 FIGURE 5: ALL RESPONDENTS
ANALYSIS OF MOST ATTRACTIVE OR LUCRATIVE MARKET OVER NEXT DECADE
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
North America Central South America Eastern Western Asia-Pacific Africa Middle East
America Europe Europe

FIGURE 5a: DOMAIN SPECIFIC RESPONSES

ANALYSIS OF MOST ATTRACTIVE OR LUCRATIVE MARKET OVER NEXT DECADE
Air Land Sea
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
North America Central South America Eastern Europe Western Asia-Pacific Africa Middle East
America Europe

Page 11
 RAYTHEON LEADING THE WAY
Raytheon is expected to have the
biggest impact on the radar market
over the next ten years according to
70% of respondents. The company
recently announced it had
completed a series of milestones to
upgrade the Patriot Air and Missile
Defense System. The projected
upgrade is designed to deliver 360-
degree capability enhanced with
gallium nitride (GaN).
Lockheed Martin (57%), Thales
(55%), BAE Systems (47%), and
Northrop Grumman (46%) were all
identified as other market leaders.

FIGURE 6: ALL RESPONDENTS

ANALYSIS OF COMPANIES EXPECTED TO HAVE BIGGEST IMPACT ON RADAR
INNOVATIONS OVER THE NEXT DECADE
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Page 12
 FIGURE 6a: DOMAIN SPECIFIC RESPONSES
ANALYSIS OF COMPANIES EXPECTED TO HAVE BIGGEST IMPACT ON RADAR
MARKET INNOVATIONS OVER THE NEXT DECADE
Air Land Sea
200%

180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Page 13
 FIGURE 7: ALL RESPONDENTS
WITHIN 10-15 YEARS, HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT COGNITIVE RADAR WILL PROVIDE TRULY
INTELLIGENT RADAR THAT WILL INCREASE OPERATOR'S REAL-WORLD AWARENESS ON MISSIONS?

32%
3%
5%

21%
Highly likely
Likely
Not sure
Unlikely
39%
Highly unlikely

COGNITIVE EXPECTATIONS
While the technology is still
immature at this stage, the potential
for cognitive radar seems positive
with 71% of respondents indicating
that within the next 10-15 years it
could provide truly intelligent radar
that will increase operator's real-
world awareness on missions.
Respondents in the maritime sector
were particularly enthusiastic about
the technology’s potential with 86%
stating it is either likely or highly
likely to make an impact on the
operators capabilities. That is
compared to 63% of air respondents
and 71% of land respondents.

Page 14
 FIGURE 7a: AIR RESPONDENTS
WITHIN 10-15 YEARS, HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT COGNITIVE RADAR WILL PROVIDE TRULY INTELLIGENT
RADAR THAT WILL INCREASE OPERATOR'S REAL-WORLD AWARENESS ON MISSIONS?

28%
6%
7%
Highly likely
Likely
Not sure
24%
Unlikely
35%
Highly unlikely

FIGURE 7b: LAND RESPONDENTS:

WITHIN 10-15 YEARS, HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT COGNITIVE RADAR WILL PROVIDE TRULY INTELLIGENT
RADAR THAT WILL INCREASE
FIGUREOPERATOR'S
7b: LANDREAL-WORLD
RESPONDENTSAWARENESS ON MISSIONS?

24%
4%
6%
Highly likely
Likely
19%
Not sure
Unlikely
47% Highly unlikely

FIGURE 7c: SEA RESPONDENTS:

WITHIN 10-15 YEARS, HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT COGNITIVE RADAR WILL PROVIDE TRULY INTELLIGENT
RADAR THAT WILL INCREASE OPERATOR'S REAL-WORLD AWARENESS ON MISSIONS?
FIGURE 7c: SEA RESPONDENTS
28%

10%
Highly likely
Likely
Not sure
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
58%

Page 15
DEMAND AND PROCUREMENT TO RISE
Respondents across all sectors
believe that demand for and the
procurement of radar systems is
likely to increase over the next
decade. However, while more than
half of air-based respondents (55%
in Figure 8a), the other two sectors
did not have a majority consensus
(38% of respondents in land and
47% in the maritime domain). In
fact, for land respondents the most
likely outcome over the next ten
years is that demand will increase
but procurement of new systems will
broadly remain the same (Figure
8b).While there is no overall
consensus, it is clear that
respondents believe demand is
highly unlikely to fall in any sector;
just 1% of total participants
identified this as an expected
outcome.

FIGURE 8: ALL RESPONDENTS

WHICH STATEMENT MOST ACCURATELY DESCRIBES THE
MILITARY RADAR MARKET OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS?

3%
12%

46%
Demand and procurement will
increase
Demand will increase but
procurement will fall or stay the same
Don't know
38%

Demand will fall

Procurement will fall

Page 16
 FIGURE 8a: AIR RESPONDENTS
WHICH STATEMENT MOST ACCURATELY DESCRIBES THE
MILITARY RADAR MARKET OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS?

5% Demand and procurement will

increase
15%
Demand will increase but
procurement will fall or stay the same
55%
Don't know

24% Demand will fall

Procurement will fall

FIGURE 8b: LAND RESPONDENTS

WHICH STATEMENT MOST ACCURATELY DESCRIBES THE
MILITARYFIGURE
RADAR MARKET OVER
8b: LAND THE NEXT 10 YEARS?
RESPONDENTS
3% Demand and procurement will
7%
increase
38%
Demand will increase but
procurement will fall or stay the same
Don't know

51%
Demand will fall

Procurement will fall

FIGURE 8c: SEA RESPONDENTS

WHICH STATEMENT MOST ACCURATELY DESCRIBES THE
MILITARYFIGURE
RADAR MARKET
8c: SEAOVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS?
RESPONDENTS
4% Demand and procurement will
increase
11%
Demand will increase but
47%
procurement will fall or stay the same
Don't know

36%
Demand will fall

Procurement will fall

Page 17

In recent years, there have been a number
of key developments in radar technology
which have enhanced radar capabilities in
areas such as range,detection,
identification, integration with other
sensors and adaptability to new missions,
platforms and environments. As operators
are confronted by emerging threats and
increasingly congested and contested
operational environments, these
technological advancements are filling
critical capability gaps; therefore, there
will be severe consequences for militaries
which fail to adapt to recent developments.
Ultimately, understanding these complex
challenges and making decisions on
procurements and upgrades is vital to
national security.
Defence IQ is delighted to announce the
return of our 14th Annual Military Radar
conference. This summit stands alone as
an established event which is dedicated to
the military applications of radar
technology. As a result, it has gained
international recognition as a unique
forum for discussion and is consistently
able to attract senior representatives from
military services, commercial
organisations and research institutions.
With devoted exhibition facilities and
networking sessions, this conference
provides the perfect environment for
military and industry partners to debate
changing mission sets and the future
capability potential of radar systems.
Email
enquire@defenceiq.com
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 Exclusive testimonies on future
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to gain unparalleled insights which will
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 Unique opportunity for a holistic
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and academia on the future application
of radar to ensure that your
procurement and training programmes
are prepared for imminent capability
advances
 Evaluate the potential capability gaps
threatening national security, which are
emerging as legacy radar systems are
increasingly required to counter new
threats and environmental challenges
 Access innovative methodologies and
technological approaches to counter
emerging threats and challenging
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management during procurement and
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