Professional Documents
Culture Documents
6
5
3
7 8
January 2005
Economy Analysis for Engineering Projects
التحليل األقتصادي للمشاريع الهندسية
Author:
Dr. Attia H. Gomaa
Head of Industrial Eng. Dept. Cairo University, Fayoum branch,
attiagomaa@yahoo.com
Course Outline:
1. Project Concepts
2. Project Life Cycle
3. Project Management Concept
4. Project Cost & Budget Estimation
5. Project Risk Management
6. Project Planning Approaches
7. Total Project Control
8. Project Cash Flow Analysis
9. Project Value Analysis
10. Modern Project Management (MPM)
11. Computer applications
12. Practical cases.
Projects
have been
around as
long has
humans
have!
Target Products/
Processes Services
Information
Resources
Control
Phase 2: Development
Feasibility
Objectives/rationale
Program, schematics
Sketches/outline drawings
WBS
Resources, team
Schedule
Budget
Cash flow
Financing
Re-assess risks, alternatives
Present Project Charter/Brief
Go/No go
Phase 4: Transfer
Assemble start-up team
Training
Finalize/test all systems
Reviews & Acceptances
Transfer responsibility
Settle all accounts
Project review
Re-assign remaining team
Archive lessons learned
Close all records
Deliver Final Report
6- PM is “do the right things, with the right tools, and in the
right way".
PM Main Steps:
1. Planning: establishing the required activities, their
logical sequence, restraints and interfaces
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- sessecorp
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Organization
Information
Long-run Plans
Management Action
Control Implementation
Customer
Satisfaction
Time Cost & Resources
Performance
ytilauQ & epocS) (
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Maximization Targets:
Cost Wise: Profit, Value added
Quantity Wise: Production volume
Material Wise: Mat. utilization
Manpower Wise: Worker utilization
Machines Wise: M/c. utilization
Quality Wise: Yield
Time Wise: Availability
Minimization Targets:
Cost Wise: Cost elements
Quantity Wise: WIP
Material Wise: Mat. scrap
Manpower Wise: Unused capacity
Project Resources
What are the main resources for any project?
Materials
Machines
Manpower
Building
Space
Method (Know-how)
Money
Tools (computers, software, etc.)
Time
Information
Infrastructure
Risk plans:
Target plan (normal or most likely)
Optimistic plan
Pessimistic plan
Strategic Plans:
Strategic plan
Tactical plan
Operational plan
Urgent plan
Planning Level:
Overall plan “Complete information”
Partial plan “Incomplete information”
Urgent plan “Without information”
Cost Budgeting:
Components of a Budget:
Direct labor costs
Subcontractors
Overheads
Fringe benefits
Consultant fees
Travel
Budget Steps:
Look at history of similar projects
Determine internal resources
Determine external resources
Pricing the project
Risk levels:
1- Project selection
2- Target plan
3- Information collection & analysis
4- Critical activities / resources
5- Risk identification
Potential failure models
Potential failure cause
Potential failure mechanism
6- Risk assessment
Failure effect
Failure severity
Failure probability
Risk priority
Recommended actions
(Policy & job plan)
7- Implementation
8- Risk performance evaluation
9- Learned lessons
10- Corrective actions
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
1- Risk Determing risks in the project.
identification
2- Risk estimation Evaluating the probability of the
risk occurence and the impact of
risk on the project.
3- Risk response Developing plans for responding to
development risks.
4- Risk control Implementing and updating the risk
plans.
Process Mapping:
Graphically identifying all processes to the Sub-process and
tasks levels
Subcontract Work
- Issue Specification
- Evaluate Bids
Review History
Brainstorming:
Structured method of generating ideas and solutions
Pitfall: Must be conducted within established guidelines
Affinity Diagrams:
Used to process the ideas generated during brainstorming:
Write the brainstormed ideas on Post- in Notes
Post them randomly on a wall
Invite people to group them in like categories, without
discussion
Develop headings for the categories
WBS must:
Establish an information structure for describing the
project's scope;
Serve as an effective means of communication to
integrate the objectives and activities of all the internal
and external organizations involved in the project;
Represent the planning of the project, step by step;
Separate sequential and parallel activities assigned to
different groups who will schedule, measure and control
their own performance; and
Reflect the procurement strategy during the various
stages of the project's life cycle.
P01 P02
Usually. . .
– work packages are numbered WP1, WP2, . . . ;
– tasks are numbered T1.1, T1.2, etc,
– the first number is the number of the workpackage;
– the second is a sequence number.
– deliverables are numbered D1.1, D1.2, etc
– milestones are numbered M1, M2 etc.
Work Packages:
A Work Package describes the work to be performed by a
specific organizational unit, and serves as a vehicle for
monitoring and reporting on progress, cost and schedule. All
work packages fall into one of three different categories:
A work-package:
– Independent of other activities;
– but may depend on, or feed into other activities;
– May include multiple concurrent activities;
– Typically allocated to a single team.
Tasks:
A task is typically a much smaller piece of work:
– A part of a work-package.
– May be dependent on other concurrent activities;
– Typically allocated to a single person.
Deliverables:
EXAMPLES:
– Delivery of requirements spec;
– Delivery of alpha tested code.
Milestones:
– A milestone is a significant event in the project, usually
completion of a major deliverable.
– Success criteria
– Responsibilities
– Acceptance responsibility
– Estimate time
– Evolve estimation
Activity ID:
A value used to identify an activity in P3. Each
activity is represented by a unique ID containing one
to ten alphanumeric characters.
Activity codes:
Flag activity:
Hammock:
An aggregate or summary activity (a group of related
activities is shown as one and reported at a summary
level).
Meeting activity:
P3 schedules a meeting activity for a time when all of
the resources assigned to it can work on it at once, for
the entire duration of the activity.
Forms:
Activity On Arrow Diagram (AOA) or Arrow Diagram
Activity On Node Diagram (AON) or Precedence
Diagram
The tail of the arrow represents the start and the head
represents the finish of the activity
Float calculation:
Total Float TF = LF - EF
Free Float FFi = ESj - EFi
Interfering Float IF = TF - FF
Float:
The amount of time that an activity may be delayed from
its early start without delaying the project finish date.
It is the difference between the task's early and late start
dates.
Free Float (FF): The amount of time an activity can be
delayed without delaying the early start of any
immediately following activities.
Critical activity:
Near-critical activity:
An activity that has low total float needed to complete the
work.
Critical paths:
– Path from start node to end node
– Summing up the estimated durations of the tasks
– The critical path is the sequence of activities that takes the
longest time to complete.
– Any delay to an activity in the critical path will cause
delays to the overall project.
– Delays to activities not on the critical path need not
necessarily cause overall delays.
Activity bar:
A bar which graphically represents an activity along a
time scale.
Critical activity TF = 0
In the typical bar chart, activities are listed down the left
side of the chart, dates are shown across the top, and
activity durations are shown as date-placed horizontal
bars.
2- Resource curves:
Graphic displays the percentage of accumulated resource.
3- S-Curve:
Graphic displays of cumulative costs, labor hours, or other
quantities, plotted against time.
The name derives from the S-like shape of the curve
(flatter at the beginning and end, steeper in the middle)
produced on a project that starts slowly, accelerates, and
then tails off.
It is more generally referred to as a Progress Curve.
Resource Identify
Resource planning
Resource control
Resource Identify:
Resource planning:
Resource control:
Resource smoothing:
Resource smoothing is an optional resource leveling
method that resolves resource conflicts by delaying
activities that have positive float.
Resource Leveling:
Resource leveling is the part of the scheduling process in
which the start and end dates of tasks are driven by
resource limitations (e.g., limited availability of resources
or difficult-to-manage resource levels).
It is the process of determining and minimizing the effect
of low resource availability on the schedule.
Use resource leveling to resolve resource conflicts by
rescheduling activities to times when sufficient resources
are available.
Time crashing:
Quality Quantity
Under Safety
Conditions
Cost Time
Resources
2- Time control
Behind schedule (late)
Ahead schedule (early)
3- Cost control
Cost overrun
Cost underrun
4- Quality control
Acceptable level
Non-acceptable level
5- Inventory control
Over estimation
Under estimation
Control Steps:
1- What to control?
2- What is the standard (target) performance?
3- What is the actual performance level?
4- Comparison between the actual & target.
5- Detection of variance
6- Identification of causes of variance
7- Corrective actions
8- Learned lessons.
Cost variance:
The difference between the actual cost for work
performed and the budgeted cost for work performed.
It deals with performance of an activity while it is
underway.
In earned value, BCWP less ACWP.
In summary,
Budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP)
Actual cost of work performed (ACWP)
Budgeted cost of work scheduled (BCWS)
Budgeted Cost for Work Scheduled (BCWS)
BCWS = Target budget * percent complete
Waste
Input Output
Effectiveness Efficiency
Project Effectiveness:
It is related to performance.
Project Efficiency:
Productivity index
TOTAL PRODUCTIVITY:
Middle
Management
Technical indicators
Operational
Management
1- Determining Performance
objectives and indicators
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3- Evaluating
performance
1. Project definition
2. Data collection & analysis
3. Project targets & constraints
4. List of quantities
5. Activity list
6. Activity relations
7. Resource list
8. Resource allocation
9. Performance rates
10. Activity durations
11. Logic diagram
12. Time calculations
13. Critical activities (TF = 0)
14. Bar chart (Basic plan)
15. Resource profiles
16. Resource limits (required/ available capacities)
17. Critical resources (required limits > available)
18. Resources analysis (smoothing & leveling)
19. Project time crushing (project time > target)
20. Target plans (time, resources, cost)
21. Organization
Activity ID A B C D E
Predecessors - - - A C
Duration (day) 8 5 6 8 20
Worker/day 5 7 8 5 5
Budget Cost $ 1000 10 15 8 60 120
Required:
1. Draw the project network (logic diagram)?
2. Calculate the critical path?
3. Draw the corresponding Gantt chart?
4. Construct the corresponding smoothed worker loading?
5. If the maximum worker limit is 12 worker/day, construct
the corresponding worker leveling?
6. Construct the monthly work plan.
7. Construct the monthly cost profile.
Activity E1 E2 E3 E4 C5 C6 C7 C8
Predecessors - - - - E2 & E4 E3 C6 C5& C7
Duration 4 2 2 2 3 2 3 3
(day)
Worker/day 9 3 6 4 8 7 2 1
Cost ($ 1000) 5 3 5 3 2 5 3 5
Required:
1- Draw the project network (logic diagram)?
2- Calculate the critical path?
3- Draw the corresponding Gantt chart?
4- Construct the corresponding smoothed worker loading?
5- If the maximum worker limit is 10 worker/day,
construct the corresponding worker leveling?
6- Construct the corresponding cost profile and the
cumulative cost profile (S curve) for the best plan?
1- Activity List
Predecessors Relations
Duration
Activity ID (SS, FF,
(day)
etc.)
1 Mobilization MOB 1
2 Excavation #1 EX1 3 MOB
3 Excavation #2 EX2 4 MOB
4 Excavation #3 EX3 2 MOB
5 Concrete #1 CO1 8 EX1 SS 1
6 Concrete #2 CO2 12 EX2 SS 1
7 Concrete #3 CO3 6 EX3 SS 1
8 Finishing FIN 2 CO1 FS5
CO2 FS5
CO3 FS5
2- Resource List:
Resource/day
Activity ID
1 2 3
1 Mobilization MOB L01, 2
2 Excavation EX1 L01, 3 E01, 1
3 Excavation EX2 L01, 3 E01, 1
4 Excavation EX3 L01, 3 E01, 1
5 Concrete CO1 L02, 6 E02, 1 M01, 40
6 Concrete CO2 L02, 6 E02, 1 M01, 50
7 Concrete CO3 L02, 6 E02, 1 M01, 40
8 Finishing FIN L02, 3
Required:
1. Draw the project network (logic diagram)?
2. Draw the corresponding Gantt chart?
3. Construct the corresponding smoothed worker loading?
4. Construct the corresponding worker leveling?
5. Construct the target action plan.
6. Construct the target master plan.
7. Calculate the project cost elements (labor, equipment
and materials).
8. Construct the cost profile and S curve.
2- Budget Limitation:
10 M$ /month
Required:
1. Draw the project network (logic diagram)?
2. Draw the corresponding Bar chart?
3. Construct the corresponding smoothed worker loading?
4. Construct the corresponding budget leveling?
Required:
1. Construct the activity relations (SS and FF).
2. Draw the project network (logic diagram)?
3. Draw the corresponding bar chart?
4. Construct the project cost profile and S-Curve.
Actual production:
P
Cost
Capital
recovery factor
(A/P, i, n)
i = Interest rate (%) n = Life time (year)
P = Present value F= Future value
A= Annual uniform value G= Gradient value
j = Geometric series percentage (%)
Revenue
Project one
Project two
Year
Revenue
After
Before
Year
F=40000 Revenue
A=80000
P=460000 Cost
From table,
(P/A, i%, n) = (P/A, 12%, 10) = 5.650223
(P/F, i%, n) = (P/F, 12%, 10) = 0.321973
PC = P = 460000
PW = PR – PC
Project 1 Project 2
Present Cost (PC) 460000 463648
Present Revenue (PR) 464897 468373
Present Worth (PW) 4897 4725
Profit Index (PI) 1.01058 1.01019
Life, years 6 10
Life, years 20 20 20
Interest rate 7% 7%
Life, years 5 5 5
Annual benefit
($1000)
Year 1 50 170 100
2 60 120 100
3 120 90 100
4 160 80 100
5 200 70 100
Life, years 5 5 5
Annual manufacturing
cost ($1000)
Year 1 100 160 130
2 120 140 130
3 140 120 130
4 160 100 130
5 180 80 130
Uniform annual
Revenue ($1000) 250 250 250
Traditional PM Modern PM
Focused on: Focused on:
Cost, Time, and Total Project Management
Quality (Integration, Scope, Resource, Cost,
Time, Quality, Risk, etc.)
Control management
Operational management
Automation
Objective How?
First and foremost, Project
Meet the customer expectations: Scope
What is to be delivered? Management
On schedule: Project
How long is the project estimated to take and in Time
what sequence will we do the necessary work? Management
Meet the technical /contractual requirements: Project
To what standards is project going to be Quality
delivered? Management
Now, and only now, Project
Within budget: Cost
What will be the estimated funding required? Management
Without future problems: Project
How certain we can do the project? Risk
Management
Quality of the process: Project Human
What skills are needed to do the work? Resources
Management
Good procurement: Project
What are the outsourced resources? Procurement
Management
Effective work achievement: Project
How all works is effective and efficient? Information/
Communications
Management
Meet the top management expectations: Project
How the project be overall planning & Integration
coordination? Management
Project
Success
2- Project 3- Project
Scope Time
Management Management
4- Project 5- Project
Cost Quality
Management Management
6- Project 8- Project
Human Res. Communications
Management Management
8- Project 9- Project
Risk Procurement
Management Management
1-
Project
Integration
Management
i.e.,
Action plan for each work package (WP)
Knowledge flow analysis (Method, work content &
resource required)
2.1. INITIATION
SCOPE PLANNING
SCOPE DEFINITION
Assumptions Decomposition
ACTIVITY SEQUENCING
Resource capabilities
Historical information
SCHEDULE CONTROL
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
RESOURCE PLANNING
COST BUDGETING
COST CONTROL
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
STAFF ACQUISITION
TEAM DEVELOPMENT
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
QUALITY ASSURANCE
QUALITY CONTROL
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
COMMUNICATIONS PLANNING
PERFORMANCE REPORTING
ADMINISTRATIVE CLOSURE
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
RISK QUANTIFICATION
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
9.3 SOLICITATION
Market conditions
Other planning outputs
Constraints
Assumptions
SOLICITATION PLANNING
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
SOLICITATION
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
CONTRACT ADMINISTRATION
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
CONTRACT CLOSE-OUT
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs
6- Project 8- Project
Human Res. Communications
Management Management
8- Project 9- Project
Risk Procurement
Management Management
Operational Management
4 Project characteristics
4.1 General.
4.2 Project management
4.3 Organization
4.4 Project phases and project processes
Annexes
A Quality practices in project management
ISO 9000 family of standards
B Use of progress evaluations for quality
C Bibliography
Tables:
Table 1—Description of project management processes.
2 Normative references:
ISO 9000:2000, Quality management systems — Fundamentals
and vocabulary
ISO 9004: 2000, Quality Management Systems – Guidelines for
performance improvements
ISO/IEC Guide 73: Risk management – Vocabulary –
Guidelines for use in standards
IEC 62198: 2001, Project risk management – Application
guidelines.
Project
Success
1- STRATEGIC 2- INTER-
PROCESS DEPENDENCY
MANAGEMENT
PROCESSES
3- SCOPE 4- TIME
RELATED RELATED
PROCESSES PROCESSES
5- COST 6- RESSOURCE
RELATED RELATED
PROCESSES PROCESSES
7- PERSONNEL 8- COMMUNICATION
RELATED RELATED
PROCESSES OPERATIONAL
PROCESSES
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
Strategic process Setting the direction for the project and
managing realization of the other processes.
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
2-1- Project initiation Evaluating stakeholders requirements,
and project plan preparing a project plan and initiating
development other processes.
2-2- Interaction Managing the interaction that occur
management during the project.
2-3- Change and Anticipating change and managing it
configuration across all process.
management
2-4- Closure Closing processes and obtaining
feedback.
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
3-1- Concept Defining the broad outlines of what the
development project product will do.
3-2- Scope Documenting the characteristics of the
development and project product in measureable terms
control and controlling them.
3-3- Activity Identifying and documenting activities
definition and steps required to achieve the project
objectives.
3-4- Activity control Controlling the actual work carried out
in the project.
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
4-1- Activity Identifying interrelationships and the logical
dependency interactions and dependencies among project
planning activities.
4-2- Duration Estimating the duration of each activity in
estimation connection with the specific conditions and
with the resources required.
4-3- Schedule Interrelating the project time objectives,
development activity dependencies and their durations as
the framework for developing general and
detailed schedules.
4-4- Schedule Controlling the realization of the project
control activities, for confirming the proposed
schedule or for taking adequate actions for
recovering from delays.
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
5-1- Cost Developing cost estimates for the project.
estimation
5-2- Budgeting Using results from cost estimation to produce
the project budget.
5-3- Cost Controlling costs and deviations from the
control project budget.
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
6-1- Ressource Identifying, estimating, scheduling and
planning allocating all relevant resources.
6-2- Ressource Comparing actual usage against ressource
Control plans and taking action, if needed.
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
7-1- Defining a project organizational structure
Organizational tailored to the suit the project needs including
structure identifying roles in the project and defining
definition authority and responsibility.
7-2- Staff Selecting and assigning personnel with
allocation appropriate competence to suit the project
process needs.
7-3- Team Developing individual and team skills and
development ability to enchance project performance.
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
9-1- Risk Determing risks in the project.
identification
9-2- Risk estimation Evaluating the probability of the risk
occurence and the impact of risk on the
project.
9-3- Risk response Developing plans for responding to risks.
development
9-4- Risk control Implementing and updating the risk
plans.
PROCESS DESCRIPTION
10-1- Purchasing Identifying and controlling what is to be
planning and control purchased and when.
10-2- Requirements Compiling commercial conditions and
documentation technical requirements.
10-3- Subcontractor Evaluating and determing which
evaluation subcontractors should be invited to
supply products.
10-4- Subcontracting Issuing invitations to tender, tender
evaluation, negotiation. Preparation and
placing of the subcontract.
10-5- Contract Ensuring that subcontractors
control performance meets contractual
requirements.
MANAGEMENT RESPONSIBILITY
This annex presents quality practices that are applicable to many project
processes. It indicates where further information can be found in the ISO 9000
Standards. Some of these practices have also been covered in Clauses 5, 6 and
7.
Practice Description
Approvals Requirements for approvals should be established and the
approvals documented (refer to ISO/IEC Guide 2).
Audits Audits can be carried out for both internal and external
purposes. They may be applied to all project processes.
Further guidance is given in ISO 9004:2000, 8.2, ISO
9000:2000, 2.8, and ISO 10011. The definition of “audit” is
given in ISO 9000:2000, 3.9.
Corrective action Corrective action should be carried out whenever
appropriate with regard to the change management process.
Further guidance is given in ISO 9004:2000, 8.5.2. The
definition of “corrective action” is given ISO 9000:2000,
3.6.5.
Documentation Documentation includes plans, specifications, quality
management system documents and records. Planned and
actual inputs and outputs of processes should be
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
PRODUCT REALIZATION
7.1 Interdependency
management process
7.1.1 General
7.1.2 Project initiation and project Evaluating customer and other
management plan interested parties requirements,
development preparing a project management plan
and initiating other processes.
7.1.3 Interaction management Managing interactions during the
project.
7.1.4 Change management Anticipating change and managing it
across all processes.
7.1.5 Closure Closing processes and obtaining
feedback.
CONTINUAL IMPROVEMENT
8.1 General
8.2 Role of the originating Information from the project for
organization continual improvement
8.3 Role of the project Defining the information required
organization from projects for continual
improvement
The more desperate the situation the more optimistic the situate
Too few people on a project can't solve the problems - too many
create more problems than they solve.
A user will tell you anything you ask about, but nothing more.
A user is somebody who tells you what they want the day you
give them what they asked for.
I know that you believe that you understand what you think I said
but I am not sure you realise that what you heard is not what I
meant.
If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you
there.
If you don't attack the risks, the risks will attack you.
The sooner you get behind schedule, the more time you have to
make it up.
www.tedi.uq.edu.au/mag/
Project planning & management 2_Definition/
Definition05_ProjectPlan.html
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT
www.hq.usace.army.mil/pmbp/PgMP
PLAN (PgMP) Project Management
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Business Process ...
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Project Management Plan
pmp.pdf
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Software Project Management Plan
SPMP.htm
pearl1.lanl.gov/bioassay/pdf/
Project Management Plan for the
PMP_rev81-9-031.pdf
www.umesc.usgs.gov/
Project Management Plan
habitat_needs_assessment/
Introduction
pmp_intro.html
www.project-education-
Project Management Education UK
uk.freeserve.co.uk/
www.sun.com/service/sunps/
Project Management
projectmanagement/
https://cshelpdesk.csd.sc.edu/
Project Management Framework
pmframework/projectmanagement.pdf