ModSim - Introduction To Modelling and Simulation

Introduction to Modelling and Simulation
Methods and Algorithms

Classical Approach
Classical Scientific Problem

• Application of Theories
• Execute Experiments
Problem Solution
Experiment
2
Classical Approach
Classical Scientific Problem

• Application of Theories
• Execute Experiments
Theory
Problem Solution
Experiment
3
Simulation
Simulation
• Experiments in virtual laboratory
• Experiments in the computer
• The third pillar of science beside theory and
experiment
Problem Modell Simulator
Scientific Research Abstraction of Experimental

problem Reality Environment
4
Simulation
Simulation
• Experiments in virtual laboratory
• Experiments in the computer
• The third pillar of science beside theory and
experiment
Theory
Problem Simulation Solution
Experiment
5
Solution finding
6
What is Computer Simulation ?
Definition (Shannon, 1975)
Simulation is the process of designing a model of a

real system and conducting experiments with this
model for the purpose either of understanding the
behavior of the system and its underlying causes or
of evaluating various designs of an artificial system or
strategies for the operation of the system.
7
What is Computer Simulation ?
Definition 2 (VDI-Richtlinie 3633)
Simulation is a (virtual) copy of a real system with its dynamic processes in a

(virtual) model (computer model) and (virtual) experiments with experiments
with this model, which allow interpretations for the real system.
In a practical sense, simulation is i) preparing, ii) performing, and iii)

evaluating experiments with a simulation model.
Simulation allows to study time-dependent behaviour of complex dynamical

systems in a simulation model.
8
Dynamical Systems
A system is a set of interacting or interdependent components

forming an integrated whole
A dynamic system is a set of

dynamically interacting or
interdependent components forming
an integrated whole
9
Dynamical Systems
A dynamic system is a set of dynamically

interacting or interdependent
components forming an integrated whole
• Dynamical systems change their behaviour dependent on acting

input signals, disturbances, and initial values
.
• The behaviour of a dynamical system is not direct proportional
to input and disturbance change, it changes its behaviour on
basis of its own dynamic and on inputs.
10
Dynamical Systems
• Dynamical systems change their behaviour

dependent on acting input signals, disturbances,
and initial values
.
• The behaviour of a dynamical system is not direct
proportional to input and disturbance change, it
changes its behaviour on basis of its own dynamic
and on inputs.
Initial Conditions Elements of a Dynamical System
• States x(t)
Inputs Outputs
Dynamic System • Inputs u(t)
(States) • Disturbances w(t) = Inputs
• Outputs y(t)
• Fixed Parameters, Intial Conditions
Disturbances • Time dependent Parameters (Inputs)
11
Dynamical Systems

and initial values
.
and on inputs.
Initial Conditions Elements of a Dynamical System

Potential
Benefit
Customers • States x(t)
Inputs Outputs
Dynamic System • Inputs u(t)
PC (States) BF • Disturbances w(t) = Inputs
• Outputs y(t)
• Fixed Parameters, Intial Conditions
Disturbances • Time dependent Parameters (Inputs)
12
Dynamical Systems

and initial values
.
and on inputs.
Initial Conditions
Potential
static
Benefit
BF = Faktor  PC
Customers
Inputs Outputs
Dynamic System
PC (States) BF
Disturbances
13
Dynamical Systems

and initial values
.
and on inputs.
Initial Conditions
Potential
static
Benefit
BF = Faktor  PC
Customers
Inputs Outputs
Dynamic System
PC (States) BF
dynamic
Disturbances BF (t ) = Function ( PC (t ), t , Parameters)
14
Dynamical Systems

and initial values
.
and on inputs.
Initial Conditions
Potential
static
Benefit
BF = Faktor  PC
Customers
Inputs Outputs
Dynamic System
PC (States) BF
really dynamic
Disturbances BF (t ) = Function ( PC (t ), BF (t ), t , Par )
15
Dynamical Systems

and initial values
.
and on inputs.
Initial Conditions
Potential
static formula
Benefit
BF = Faktor  PC
Customers
Inputs Outputs
Dynamic System
PC (States) BF
dynamic model
Disturbances BF (t ) = Function ( PC (t ), BF (t ), t , Par )
16
Dynamical Systems
Initial Conditions
Potential static formula
Customers Benefit
Inputs
Dynamic System Outputs
BF = Faktor  PC
PC (States) BF
Calculation
Disturbances
dynamic model
BF (t ) = Function ( PC (t ), BF (t ), t , Par )
Simulation
17
Dynamical Systems
Initial Conditions
Potential
Benefit Dynamic mathematical model
Custome
rsInputs Dynamic Outputs
System BF (t ) = Function ( PC (t ), BF (t ), t , par )
BF
(States) Simulation
PC
Disturbances
Feedbacks
System input
A dynamical system System output
may consist of a set of
components, which
themselves are
dynamical subsystems
and which influence
each other Subsystem Interconnection
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Analysis Identification:
Numeric/Programming Parameter Determination
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Validation: Comparison & Validation: Analysis
Fit of Simulation / Reality Parameter / Model
Bad Fit
Good Fit
Experiments with Model

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
19
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
20
What is a Model?
1. Mapping - A model is a Problem
Modelling
representation of a natural Mod Model

el Structure
Model Analysis Identification: NOT OK
Numeric/Programmin Parameter
g Determination
or an artificial object.
Simulator Model
Structure
OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
2. Reduction - A model is
Validation:
Comparison & Validation: Analysis
Fit of Simulation / Parameter / Model
Reality
usually simplified and does

Bad Fit
Good Fit
Experiments with
Model
not have all attributes of the

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
original object.
3. Pragmatism - A model is
always created for a certain
purpose, a certain subject
and a certain time-span.
(Stachoviak 1973)
21
Model Classification
models
Problem
Modelling
Mod Model
el Structure
g Determination
Simulator Model
Structure
OK
Basic Simulation
immaterial
Simulation Results
material Validation:
Comparison &
Fit of Simulation /
Reality
Validation: Analysis
Parameter / Model
Bad Fit
Good Fit
Experiments with
Model
(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
scaled analogue symbolic formal verbal
math. mathematic grafic math.-grafic

algorithmic
simulation analytic simulation analytic simulation

models models models models models
22
Model Classification
models
Problem
Modelling
Mod Model
el Structure
g Determination
Simulator Model
Structure
OK
Basic Simulation
immaterial
Simulation Results
material Validation:
Comparison &
Fit of Simulation /
Reality
Validation: Analysis
Parameter / Model
Bad Fit
Good Fit
Experiments with
Model
(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
scaled analogue symbolic formal verbal
math. mathematic grafic math.-grafic

algorithmic
simulation analytic simulation analytic simulation

models models models models models
23
Modelling by Abstraction
Two Steps of Abstraction

• Structural Abstraction – Qualitative Knowledge
Identification of system borders and states
• Phenomenological Abstraction – Quantitative

Knowledge
quantisation of states, identification of physical,
economic, biologic, … interactions in and with
subsystems
24
Modelling vs Model
Modelling Approach Model Type
• System Dynamics (SD)

• Ordinary Differential
• Transfer Functions (TF)
Equations (ODEs)
• Compartment Modelling
• Partial Differential
• Math. Formula
Equations (PDEs)
• Lagrange Formalism
• Differential Algebraic
• Port-based physical
Equations (DAEs)
Modelling
• Difference Equations
• Difference Equation
(DEs)
Modelling
• Cellular Automata (CAs)
• Cellular Automata
• Agent-based
Modelling
Systems/Models (ABMs)
• Agent-based Modelling
• Discrete Event Systems
• Event Graphs
(DES)
• Process Flow
Modelling vs Model
Modelling Approach Model Type
• System Dynamics (SD)

• Ordinary Differential
• Transfer Functions (TF)
Equations (ODEs)
• Compartment Modelling
• Partial Differential
• Math. Formula
Equations (PDEs)
• Lagrange Formalism
• Differential Algebraic
• Port-based physical
Equations (DAEs)
Modelling
• Difference Equations
• Difference Equation
(DEs)
Modelling
• Cellular Automata (CAs)
• Cellular Automata
• Agent-based
Modelling
Systems/Models (ABMs)
• Agent-based Modelling
• Discrete Event Systems
• Event Graphs
(DES)
• Process Flow
Landmap of Modelling Methods
The variety of different

Modelling approaches can be
Definition
seen like (Shannon
a structured 1975)
landmap.
„Simulation is the process of designing a
model of a real system and conducting
experiments with this model for the purpose
either of understanding the behavior of the
system and its underlying causes or of
evaluating various designs of an artificial
system or strategies for the operation of the
system.“
27
Landmap of Modelling Methods –
Dynamic Models
Definition (Shannon 1975)

system.“
28
Dynamic Models – Time
Discrete/Continuous
Neglecting quantum-mechanics (space as well as)

time can be seen to be a continuous number.
▪ A model is called time-continuous if the
output value of the model can be calculated
at any time (≈ 𝑡 ∈ ℝ).
▪ In the opposite a model is called time-
discrete if values are only calculated at a
finite number of predefined timesteps (≈ 𝑡 ∈
ℕ).
29
Dynamic Models – Time
Discrete/Continuous
• Usually time-continuous models are preferred

to time-discrete models, but the simulation
process is usually more difficult.
• Yet, there are processes in real world for
which time continous models are not
necessary or even dont make sense.
• Very often, time-continuous models cannot
be simulated continously. So they need to be
reformalised in a time-discrete manner – this
process is called discretisation.
30
Landmap of Modelling Methods – Time
Discrete / Continous
Definition (Shannon 1975)

system.“
31
Dynamic Models – Value
Discrete/Continuous
Similar to time-discrete/continuous, also output

values can be determined discrete or
continuously.
▪ Value-discrete:
- Number of passengers on a plane
- Number of cars searching for a parking spot.
▪ Value-continuous:
- Voltage/Current in an Electrical Circuit
- Angular Velocity of a Pendulum
32
Dynamic Models – Value
Discrete/Continuous
▪ Although simulation output is expected to be

continuous/discrete, it is not necessarily
modelled in a continuous/discrete way.
E.g.:
Population of a country is a discrete number…
… yet it can be modelled by a continous
model
It requires a correct result interpretation!
33
Examples –Discrete/Continuous
Electricity Consumption People in check-in hall
value
value
time time
Monthly Budget Number of passengers

each flight
value
value
time time
34
35
Model Procedures
System
Theoretical Modelling Experimental Modelling

Deductive Analysis Inductive Analysis
Modelling by Laws and Rules Modelling by using models
with observed behaviour
White Box Modelling Black Box Modelling
Ohms Law
Newton‘s Law
Mathematical Model
Supply/Demand Law
36
Application vs. Modelling Approach
White Box Modeling

•
Electrotechni • Laws
que
• Mechanics • Laws and Observations
• Environment
• Laws and Observations
• Medicine
• Observations and Characterisation
• Economy
• Sociology • Observations and Characterisation
Black Box Modeling
37
Model Reduction
From Deduction to Induction

•
Electrotechni • Laws
que
• Mechanics • Laws and Observations
• Environment
• Laws and Observations
• Medicine
• Observations and Characterisation
• Economy
• Sociology • Observations and Characterisation
Deductive models may contain too many parameters –

problems with identification
38
39
Stochastic/Deterministic
• If the output of the simulation of a model is

uniquely defined by input parameters, initial
conditions and model parameters the model
is called deterministic.
• Otherwise it is called stochastic.
Results: Results:
14.2 14.3
14.2 deterministic 14.6 stochastic
14.2 13.9
14.2 14.2
... ...
40
Stochastic models are necessary…

▪ … if random effects are included in the system.
→ coin toss, rolling a dice, …
▪ … if emelents of the system are too complex to

be described by deterministic rules.
→ human behaviour, problems at system borders,…
41
Stochastic models are necessary…

▪ … if random effects are included in the system.
→ coin toss, rolling a dice, ...
▪ … if emelents of the system are too complex to

be described by deterministic rules.
→ human behaviour, problems at system borders,…
→ coin toss, rolling a dice, …
42
43
Microscopic/Macroscopic Models
• If systems consist of a big set of similar

subsystems...
individual
subsidiary
car
wooden
fibre
... the question arises whether a micro- meso-

or macroscopic model should be used.
44
• Microscopic models treat each subsystem as

an individual model. Finally they are linked in
order to model the whole system.
individual individual
individual
individual
45
• Macroscopic models treat the whole system,

neglecting the fact, that it consists of
subsystems.
Population
46
Microscopic/Macroscopic
47
Approaches for Soft Sciences
Simulation
(Troitzsch)
48
Approaches for Soft Sciences
Simulation
Aggregated Distributed (Troitzsch)
49
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
50
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
51
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
• simulation Model Structure
software Model NOT OK
• simulation Numeric/Programming Parameter Determination
Model Structure
languages Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
• Simulators
Simulation Results
• Simulation Parameter / Model
Fit of Simulation / Reality
systems
Bad Fit
• Simulation
Environments Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
52
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Basic Simulation
• Simulators
Simulation Results
systems
Bad Fit
• Simulation

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
53
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Basic Simulation
• Simulators
Simulation Results
systems
Bad Fit
• Simulation

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
54
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Basic Simulation
• Simulators
Simulation Results
systems
Bad Fit
• Simulation

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
55
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Basic Simulation
• Simulators
Simulation Results
systems
Bad Fit
• Simulation

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
56
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
57
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Verification Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
NOT OK
Model

Model Structure
OK
Simulator
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results

State, Bad Fit
Observation Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
⧫
⧫ ⧫ ⧫
⧫
⧫ ⧫ ⧫ ⧫ ⧫ ⧫
⧫ ⧫ ⧫
⧫ Measurement Simulation
time
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution Visualisation???
69
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
Visualisation
70
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“) Visualisation
Problem Solution Data-Driven
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

Problem Solution
Data Driven
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

Problem Solution
Simulation Driven
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Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

Problem Solution Model-Driven
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Testcase: Predator-Prey
SIMULATION CIRCLE
75
Simulation Circle
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
76
What is System Dynamics
Forrester, 1961
System Dynamics is a field that resulted from the pioneering

efforts of Jay W. Forrester to apply the engineering principles of
feedback and control to social systems.
System Dynamics generates qualitative models based on

causalities.
By appropriate parameterisation, the qualitative models can be

transformed into “quantitative” computer models to simulate the
investigated system
77
World Models
Systems Dynamics and DYNAMO received widespread

interest mainly because they were used to build large
world models such as
• WORLD2 (World Dynamics, Forrester1971);
• WORLD3 (The Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World,
[Meadows]);
• and WORLD3 revisited (Beyond the Limits).
78
World Models
79
Key to develop SD Models
Causal thinking is the key to organizing

ideas in a system dynamics study
(Roberts et al. 1983)
cause effect
How to build a SD Model?
1. Identify system variables and system

boundaries
2. Capture links of variables in a
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
3. Build a Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD)
-----------------------------------------------------------
• Implement the model in a simulator
1. System Variables and Boundaries
a. Analysis of the problem - Determining the

purpose and the use of the model and
defining a target for the simulation.
b. Start collecting information and data. Start
developing hypothesis about the parts of the
system.
c. Determine the elements of the system.
d. Determine causal relationships between the
elements.
1. System Variables and Boundaries
System
Links boundary
System variables
2. Causal Loop Diagram
Capture the behavior and links of and within the

system by interlinking system variables that are related
to each other
Behavior of system due to:

• Feedback Loops
• System memory (stocks)
• Delays in material and information delays
Main components of CLDs:

• System variables: names of elements
• Link - positive:
Eating Weight
+
Represented by a plus-sign
Increase in variable Eating results in an increase in
variable Weight

• Link – negative:
Diet Weight
-
Represented by minus-sign.
Increase in variable Diet results in a
decrease in variable Weight

• Feedback Loops: are closed loops of arrows,
represented by a:
“(+)” (or ”(R)” for reinforcing) or
“(-)” (or “(B)” for balancing) sign in the middle.

• Feedback Loops: are closed loops of arrows,
represented by a
“(+)” (or ”(R)” for reinforcing) or
“(-)” (or “(B)” for balancing) sign in the middle.
Feedback Loops
▪ Search to identify closed, causal feedback loops
is one key element of System Dynamics
▪ The most important causal influences will be
exactly those that are enclosed within feedback
loops
Types of behavior due to loops:

▪ Exponential Growth: arises from positive
(reinforcing) feedback loop.
Example:
Population Births
Causation vs. Correlation

• Correlation represents past behavior and not
the structure of the system
• Causation represents the causal links of the
structure
Wrong: Right:
Ice Creme Murder Ice Creme Murder
+ Sales + + Rate
Sales Rate
Avgerage
Temperature
At least one negative feedback loop is

necessary to receive a stable system
Lack of Space Population

3. Stock and Flow Diagram
Problem: Not all system elements are system variables!
Solution: distinguish between

• Sources/Sinks
• Levels/Stocks
• Flows
• Auxiliaries
• Paramters
• Links
SFM – Sources/Sinks
Sources/Sinks:
Source represents systems of levels and
rates outside the boundary of the
model
Sink is where flows terminate outside
the system
E.g.: Raw Material (Source for

„Construction“ Flow), Graveyard (Sink for
„Dying“ Flow)
SFM - Stocks
Levels/Stocks/System variables:
A quantity that accumulates over
time and changes its value
continuously.
E.g.: Size of a population, Number of

people waiting in a queue, Number of
goods waiting to be transported, etc.
SFM – Flow
Flow/Rate/Activity/Movement:
Changes the values of levels. Every level
has at least to be connected to one flow
in order to change its value.
E.g.: Birth (Changes the value of the

stock „population“), Eating (Changes the
value of the stock „amount of food“), etc.
SFM – Auxiliary
Auxiliary:
Everything that can directly/analytically be
calculated out of stocks and constants.
Often useful, to avoid confusing models.
E.g.: Density (can directly be calculated

by the stocks/constants „mass“ and
„volume“), Quelength (calculated by stock
„people in queue“ and constant „average
size of one person“), etc.
SFM – System/Input Parameters
Parameter /Constant
Everything that is predefined for the
whole simulation – usually it is a
constant but can be a function too.
E.g.: Average Temperature, Number of

Cash Desks (In a supermarket), Birth
Rate, Maximum capacity of a Room, etc.
Graphical Representation
Initial value of state
Source Change of State

State
Feedback
Rate of
change
From CLD to SFM (1)
Population Births
Population
Births
From CLD to SFM (2)
Lack of Space Population Births
Space
Lack of Space
Population
Births
Predator – Prey System
Dynamics: Predator eats Prey

Problem Predator / Prey births, deaths
Modelling
Model
Environment: isolated
Measurement: Predator Population
5 Years = 60 months, quarterly
Problem: When is a reasonable time to use

chemical pesticides to reduce number of
predators?
102
Problem
Modelling
Model
103
Problem
Modelling
Model
𝑌 𝑡 … Prey
Separation – 𝑋 𝑡 … Predators
Isolated environment
Choice -
2 variables = 2 states
104
Modelling
Problem
Separation –
Modelling
Model
Choice -
Causality –
Predator – Prey – Model
105
Modelling
Problem
Separation –
Modelling
Model
Choice -
Causality –
Y(t) .. Prey Population
X(t) .. Predator Population
106
Modelling
Problem
Causality –
Modelling
Model
Y(t) .. Prey Population
X(t) .. Predator Population
System Dynamics –
Population Interaction
107
Modelling
Causality – Predator – Prey – Model

Y(t) .. Prey,
X(t) .. Predator
Problem System Dynamics - Population interaction
Modelling
Model
Then #Preys If #Prey
decreases increases
If #Predator Then #Predators

increases increases
108
Modelling

Y(t) .. Prey,
X(t) .. Predator
Modelling
Model
+
Then #Preys If #Prey
decreases
- increases
+
If #Predator Then #Predators
increases increases
+
109
Modelling

Y(t) .. Prey,
X(t) .. Predator
Modelling
Model
- Causal
Loop
Diagram
+
110
Modelling
System Dynamics - Population interaction
Problem
Modelling
Model + Prey -
Prey Pop Prey
Growth + Loss
-
+
+ Food
Rate
+
Causal
Loop
Pred + Pred
+ Pred
Growth Loss
Diagram Pop
-
111
Modelling
System Dynamics - Population interaction
Problem
Modelling
Model
+
-
Prey
Prey Pop Prey
+
Growt Loss
h
Food
+
Causal
Rate
Loop
+
+ +
Pred Pred
Growt Pred Loss
Diagram
h Pop
112
Modelling
+
-
Prey
Prey Pop Prey
+
Growt Loss
h
+
Problem
Food
Rate
+
+ +
Pred Pred
Growt Pred Loss
h Pop
Modelling
Model Causality –
x(t) .. Prey
y(t) .. Predator
Logistic Growth -
𝑥ሶ = 𝑎𝑥 − 𝑏𝑥𝑦
𝑦ሶ = −𝑑𝑦 + 𝑒𝑥𝑦
Population rate = Growth rate + food
rate
113
Simulation Circle: Predator - Prey
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit
+
-
Prey
Prey Pop Prey
+
Growt Loss
h
+
Experiments with Model Food

Rate
(„Simulation“)
+
+ +
Pred Pred
Growt Pred Loss
Problem Solution
h Pop
114
Model Analysis
Model
Model Analysis +
-
Numeric/Programming Prey
Pop
Prey Prey
+
Simulator Growth Loss
Causal +
Loop Food
Rate
Diagram +
+ +
Pred Pred
Growth Pred Loss
Pop
Stock
and
Flow
Diagram
115
Model Analysis
Model
Model Analysis +
-
Numeric/Programming Prey
Pop
Prey Prey
+
Simulator Growth Loss
Causal +
Loop Food
Rate
Diagram +
+ +
Pred Pred
Growth Pred Loss
Pop
Stock
and
Flow
Diagram
116
Implementation
Model
Model Analysis
Numeric/Programming
Simulator
117
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit
+
-
Prey
Prey Pop Prey
+
Growt Loss
h
+

Rate
(„Simulation“)
+
+ +
Pred Pred
Growt Pred Loss
Problem Solution
h Pop
118
Implementation
Simulator
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
119
Implementation
Simulator
Basic Simulation
Population development over time:
Simulation Results
Parameters:
x = (a − b  y )x
y = (−c + d  x) y
120
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit
+
-
Prey
Prey Pop Prey
+
Growt Loss
h
+

Rate
(„Simulation“)
+
+ +
Pred Pred
Growt Pred Loss
Problem Solution
h Pop
121
Validation
Simulation Results
Validation: Comparison &
Data
Bad Fit
Good Fit
122
Data & Simulation Results
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit
Search for
convenient
parameters
123
Data & Simulation Results
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit
Search for
convenient
parameters
No
Damping
in Model
124
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit
+
-
Prey
Prey Pop Prey
+
Growt Loss
h
+

Rate
(„Simulation“)
+
+ +
Pred Pred
Growt Pred Loss
Problem Solution
h Pop
125
Model Modification
Simulation Results
+ Prey -
Fit of Simulation / Reality Prey Pop Prey
Growth + Loss
Bad Fit +
Good Fit Food
Rate
Model Extension: +
• Both the predator and the
prey compete for food and Pred + Pred
+ Pred
shelter in the forest. Growth Loss
Pop
• Competition sets in and the
population of each species tends
-
to control itself via a negative
effect, that is the population
decreases with a rate directly
proportional to the present
population of that species.
126
Model Modification
Simulation Results
Prey
Validation: Comparison & Comp
Fit of Simulation / Reality + +
Prey -
Bad Fit Prey + Pop Prey
Growth Loss
Good Fit
+
Model Extension: Food

• Both the predator and the Rate
+
prey compete for food and
shelter in the forest. + +
Pred Pred
Growth Pred Loss
• Competition sets in and the
Pop
population of each species tends - +
to control itself via a negative
effect, that is the population Pred
decreases with a rate directly Comp
proportional to the present
population of that species.
127
Model Modification
Simulation Results Causal Prey

Comp

+ +
Fit of Simulation / Reality Loop Prey

Growth +
Prey
Pop
-
Prey
Loss
Diagram +
Bad Fit
Food
Rate
+ +
Good Fit Pred

Growth
Pred
Pred
Loss
Pop
-
+
Pred
Comp
Model Extension:
• Competition Feedback
128
Model Modification
Simulation Results Causal Prey

Comp

+ +
Fit of Simulation / Reality Loop Prey

Growth +
Prey
Pop
-
Prey
Loss
Diagram +
Bad Fit
Food
Rate
+ +
Good Fit Pred

Growth
Pred
Pred
Loss
Pop
-
+
Pred
Comp
Stock
and
Flow
Diagram
129
Model Modification
Simulation Results
Stock
Bad Fit and
Good Fit
Flow
Diagram
130
Model Modification
Simulation Results
Fit of Simulation / Reality Parameters:
Bad Fit
Good Fit
x = (a − b  y)x − e  x 2 = (a − e  x − b  y) x
y = (−c + d  x) y − f  y 2 = (−c − f  y + d  x) y
131
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
132
Model Modification
Simulation Results
Fit of Simulation / Reality Parameters:
Bad Fit
Good Fit
x = (a − b  y)x − e  x 2 = (a − e  x − b  y) x
y = (−c + d  x) y − f  y 2 = (−c − f  y + d  x) y
133
Problem
Modelling
Model Structure
Model NOT OK
Model Structure
Simulator OK
Basic Simulation
Simulation Results
Bad Fit
Good Fit

(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
134
Results Interpretation / Analysis
Good Fit
• Determination of long time behavior /
(„Simulation“)
stationary solutions (equilibria)
Problem Solution
135
Results Interpretation / Analysis
Good Fit
• Determination of long time behavior /
(„Simulation“)
stationary solutions (equilibria)
Problem Solution
136
Use of Pesticide
Good Fit
Modification of Predator-prey model with intraspecific Experiments with Model
competition („Simulation“)
Problem Solution
• Assume, that at a specific time poison is released
into the system, e.g. some of predators are
removed
from the population by hunting.
• The growth rate a of prey is changed to:

where K is growth rate change.
• This change occurs at the specific time point.
• The new growth rate a depends on the difference

between populations at this specific time point and
stays constant after that.
137
Use of Pesticide
Good Fit

Adequate („Simulation“)
time instant Problem Solution
tc : d old → d new , f old → f new
𝑥ሶ = 𝑎𝑥 − 𝑏𝑥𝑦 − 𝑒𝑥 2
𝑦ሶ = −𝑐𝑦 + 𝑑𝑥𝑦 − 𝑓𝑦 2
138
Modification of Predator-prey model
with intraspecific competition
Good Fit
(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
Parameters:
139
Good Fit
(„Simulation“)
Problem Solution
Parameters:
140
Good Fit
Problem
Modelling („Simulation“)
Model Problem Solution
Assignment: short time,

Dynamics: Prey – Predators changes the growth of preys,
Environment: isolated damping parameter
Measurement: natural enemies Approach: optimal time point
5 Years = 60 months 𝑡𝑐 is dependent on the
quarterly population difference
Problem: When is a reasonable time Result: The assignment is not

to use chemical pesticides? conducive
141
The DON‘Ts of Mathematical Modelling
(S. W. Golomb, Simulation 14 (1970), 197-198)
• DON‘T believe that the model is the reality
• DON‘T extrapolate beyond the region of fit
• DON‘T distort reality to fit the model
• DON‘T retain a discredited model
• DON‘T fall in love with your model
142

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Introduction to Modelling and Simulation

Methods and Algorithms

Classical Scientific Problem

Classical Scientific Problem

Problem Modell Simulator

Scientific Research Abstraction of Experimental

Problem Simulation Solution

Definition (Shannon, 1975)

Simulation is the process of designing a model of a

Definition 2 (VDI-Richtlinie 3633)

Simulation is a (virtual) copy of a real system with its dynamic processes in a

In a practical sense, simulation is i) preparing, ii) performing, and iii)

Simulation allows to study time-dependent behaviour of complex dynamical

A system is a set of interacting or interdependent components

A dynamic system is a set of

A dynamic system is a set of dynamically

• Dynamical systems change their behaviour dependent on acting

• Dynamical systems change their behaviour

Initial Conditions Elements of a Dynamical System

• Dynamical systems change their behaviour

Initial Conditions Elements of a Dynamical System

• Dynamical systems change their behaviour

• Dynamical systems change their behaviour

• Dynamical systems change their behaviour

• Dynamical systems change their behaviour

Experiments with Model

Experiments with Model

1. Mapping - A model is a Problem

representation of a natural Mod Model

usually simplified and does

not have all attributes of the

scaled analogue symbolic formal verbal

math. mathematic grafic math.-grafic

simulation analytic simulation analytic simulation

scaled analogue symbolic formal verbal

math. mathematic grafic math.-grafic

simulation analytic simulation analytic simulation

Two Steps of Abstraction

• Phenomenological Abstraction – Quantitative

Modelling Approach Model Type

• System Dynamics (SD)

Modelling Approach Model Type

• System Dynamics (SD)

The variety of different

Definition (Shannon 1975)

Neglecting quantum-mechanics (space as well as)

• Usually time-continuous models are preferred

Definition (Shannon 1975)

Similar to time-discrete/continuous, also output

▪ Although simulation output is expected to be

It requires a correct result interpretation!

Electricity Consumption People in check-in hall

Monthly Budget Number of passengers

Theoretical Modelling Experimental Modelling

White Box Modeling

• Mechanics • Laws and Observations

• Sociology • Observations and Characterisation

Black Box Modeling

From Deduction to Induction

• Mechanics • Laws and Observations

• Sociology • Observations and Characterisation

Deductive models may contain too many parameters –