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Mathematics
Quarter 4 – Module 5
(Week 6 & 7)

Describing Probability,
Predicting and Recording
Outcomes
 About the Module

This module was designed and written with you in mind. It is here to help you
master on describing the meaning of probability, predicting and recording outcomes.
If you follow the instructions and do the activities in this module, you will surely
improve your mathematical skills to a new level. Moreover, this module provides
more examples to work on to supplement your knowledge gained from reading the
textbooks.

The Module is divided into three lessons, namely:

• Lesson 1 – Describing the meaning of probability such as 50% chance of rain

and one in a million chance of winning (M6SP-IVg-19)
• Lesson 2- Performing experiments and recording outcomes (M6SP-IVh-21)
• Lesson 3 – Making listings and diagrams of outcomes and telling the number
of favorable outcomes and chances using these listings and
diagrams (M6SP-lVi-22)
 What I Know (Pre-Test)

This is a pre-test to check whether you already have the knowledge about the topics.
Directions: Read and analyze each item carefully. Write the letter of your answer on
a piece of paper.

1. It is used to describe how likely or unlikely it is that something will happen.

A. outcomes B. experiment C. probability D. statistics

2. The event is unlikely to happen when its probability is closer to _____.

A. 0 B. 1 C. 2 D. 10

3. The event is most likely to happen if its probability is closer to _____?

A. -5 B. -1 C. 0 D. 1

4. Which of these numbers cannot be a probability?

A. –0.0001 B. 0.5 C. 0.1 D. 20%

5. How many times would the coin land on heads if you tossed it 50 times?
A. 10 B. 25 C. 50 D. 100

6. What is the probability of throwing a total score of 6 with two dice?

5 6 12 5
A. B. C. D.
6 36 36 36

7. What is the probability of drawing an ace from a well-shuffled pack of 52

cards?
1 2 3 4
A. B. C. D.
52 52 52 52

8. What is the formula of getting the theoretical probability of an event?

number of favorable outcomes number of times outcomes occur
A. C.
number of possible outcomes number of possible outcomes

number of possible outcomes number of possible outcomes

B. D.
number of favorable outcomes number of times outcomes occur

9. If we find the probability of an event by doing an experiment, what kind of

probability is this?
A. random probability C. simple probability
B. experimental probability D. theoretical probability

10. It is a possible result in an experiment.

A. experiment B. outcome C. probability D. result

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Lesson
1 Describing Probability

What I Need To Know

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:
• describe probability
• quantify the phrases “most likely to happen” and “unlikely to happen”
• cite ways to keep safe during rainy days

What’s In
Let us have a review.
Directions: Write your answers in a separate sheet of paper.
A. Answer the following using the scenario below.
Mrs. Aguilar asked her siblings to vote on where they would most like
to go on an outing. The choices were: Lambug Beach, Maravilla Beach,
Kawasan Falls, Anjo World and Blue Reef. All 20 siblings cast one vote
each. The pie graph below shows the results.

OUTING DESTINATIONS

KAWASAN
LAMBUG
FALLS
BEACH
25%
30%

MARAVILLA
BLUE REEF BEACH
10% 20%
ANJO
WORLD
15%

1. Which destination got the highest percentage of votes?

2. Which destination got the lowest percentage of votes?
3. How many siblings voted for Maravilla Beach?
4. How many more siblings chose Lambug Beach than Kawasan Falls?
5. How many siblings chose Anjo World? Blue Reef?

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 What’s New

Are you excited for a new learning?

Let us study on how to describe the meaning of probability

The weather forecaster says that the probability that it will rain today
is 75%. Does it mean that there is a great chance that it will rain today?

• What is the percent of probability that it will rain today?

• Is the weather normal? Why or why not?
• What will you do during rainy days?
• Is it good to play outside during rainy days? Why?

What Is It

To answer the question in the problem, we need to know the concept of

probability.

In the question above, the chance it will rain is 75%. Using a number line
ranging from 0 to 1, we can locate 75%.
75% = 0.75

| | | | | | | | | | |
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
0.75
Based on the number line, we can say that the event that it will rain is likely
to happen because the number is closer to 1 or 100%
The chance that something will happen is called probability.

Probability is used to describe how likely or unlikely it is that

something will happen. Probability maybe given in fraction, decimal, or
percent. The value of probability ranges from 0 to 1 (0 means the event is
impossible to happen, while 1 means the event is certain to happen).
Probability will help us decide how often something is likely to happen,
but it will never help you exactly when that event will happen unless the
probability is 0 (it will never happen) or 1 (it will surely happen).
The event is unlikely to happen when its probability is closer to 0, like
winning a jackpot in a lottery where you only have one in a million chances
of winning. The most likely to happen an event is, the closer its probability
to 1.

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Probability can also be expressed using the diagram below.

Less probable More probable

< than not
| than not >

0 1 1 3 1.0
0.0 4 2 4 100%
0% 0.25 0.5 0.75 certain
impossible 25% 50% 75%
unlikely As likely likely
As unlikely

Examples

Use impossible, unlikely, as likely as unlikely, likely, and certain

to describe each of the following statements.
1. It will snow in Cebu City tomorrow.
The climate in the Philippines is tropical, it is impossible to snow.
2. The likelihood that 3 people in any group of 20 will have the same
birthday is about 8%.
Since the probability is closer to 0%, matching birthdays in a group of
20 is unlikely (but not impossible).
3. The weather forecaster says there is a 50% chance of rain today.
This means that the chance to rain today is as likely as it is unlikely.
It does not mean that it will rain nor will not rain today.
4. The survey says that Pedro Penduko has 75% chance of winning his
candidacy in presidential election.
This means that Pedro Penduko is likely to win his candidacy but it
does not mean that he will surely win.
5. The sun will rise tomorrow.
It is certain that the sun will rise every day. So, the probability of the
sun rising is 100%.

What’s More
A. Directions: Identify each of the following events as certain, unlikely,
as likely as unlikely, most likely or impossible to happen.
1. The pointer of a spinner numbered 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6 stopping on 3.
2. You will obtain 7 when rolling a regular dice.
3. You are more than 5 years old.
4. Your favorite basketball team will win their next game.
5. The chance of landing on 1 in a spinner numbered 1 to 6 in just one try.

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 What I Need To Remember

❖ Probability is used to describe how likely or unlikely it is that something will

happen.
❖ The event is unlikely to happen when its probability is closer to 0.
❖ The event is most likely to happen if its probability is closer to 1.
❖ As likely as unlikely events have the same chance of happening.
❖ An event that is certain is sure to happen.
❖ An impossible event cannot happen.

Lesson Performing Experiments and

2 Recording Outcomes

What I Need To Know

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:
• define experimental probability,
• perform experiments and record outcomes and
• cite some ways of showing sportsmanship

What’s In
Let us have a review.
Directions: Identify each event as impossible, unlikely, as likely as
unlikely, most likely or certain to happen. Answer the
following
exercises in a sheet of paper.

1. A die can have 8 faces.

2. There is one day in a week that starts with letter “M”
3. There are 31 days in February.
4. Today is a sunny day. There is 80% percent chance that it will not rain.
5. I will win in a lottery tomorrow.

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 What’s New
Are you ready for a new learning?
Then, let us begin.

Aida tosses a coin 20 times. She obtained the following results:

Outcomes Number of times the event occurs
Heads 8
Tail 12
Total 20
Based on the result, what is the probability of obtaining heads? Tails?

▪ Who tossed a coin?

▪ How many times did she toss the coin?
▪ Is tossing a coin when making decisions fair? Why or why not?
▪ If you are defeated through tossing a coin, how do you handle it?

What Is It
The result shows that Aida made 20 tosses, 8 heads and 12 tails.
To find the probability of landing on heads or tails we will use this formula
on experimental probability:

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠

P (E) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

To find the probability of landing on heads:

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
P (H) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
8
P (H) = or 40 %
20

To find the probability of landing on tails:

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
P (T) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
12
P = or 60%
20
Based on the experiment conducted by Aida, the probability of landing
on heads is 40% and on tail is 60%.

Experimental Probability is the ratio of the number of times an event occurs

to the number of trials in the experiment. There are many ways of performing
experiments and recording outcomes.

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 What’s More

It’s your turn!

Directions: Use the listing or tree diagram to solve for the number of outcomes on
the given problem.
Miss Universe Philippines, Rabiya is scheduled for a pictorial
session. She will choose an outfit which is a combination of pants and blouses to
match it from these options:

BP – black pants PB – pink blouse

WP – white pants BB – blue blouse
RP – red pants OB – orange blouse
YB – yellow blouse
These are the possible combinations of pants and blouses using the listing
method
BP- YB, BP- PB, BP- BB, BP- OP
WP- YB, WP- PB, WP- BB, WP- OB
RP- YB, RP- PB, RP- BB, RP- OB
Using this tree diagram you can also count the possible combinations of
pants and blouses.

YB BP-YB

PB BP-PB
BP
BB BP-BB

OB BP-OB

YB WP-YB

PB WP-PB
OUTFIT WP
BB WP-BB

OB WP-OB

YB RP-YB

PB RP-PB
RP
BB RP-BB

OB RP-OB
How many possible combinations of pants and blouses can Rabiya choose
from? _____________________________________________________________________.

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 What I Need To Remember

Experimental Probability- is the ratio of the number of times an event

occurs to the number of trials in the experiment. There are many ways of
performing experiments and record outcomes. Examples of these are listing
method and using a tree diagram.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Experimental Probability (event) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

Making Listings and

Lesson
3 Diagrams of Outcomes and
Chances

What I Need To Know

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:
• make listings and diagrams of outcomes of an event,
• tell the number of favorable outcomes and chances using the listings
and diagrams, and
• tell the importance of showing respect

What’s In
Let us have a review.

Directions: Answer the following exercises in a sheet of paper. Observe the

contents of the box below and then complete the table. Write and describe the
probability of choosing each object. Number 1 is done for you.

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 Outcomes Probability of Outcomes Description of Probability
1
1. Triangle 15 unlikely

2. Cylinder

3. Heart

4. Circle

5. Smiley

What’s New
Are you ready for a new learning?
Then, let us begin.

Marie is a Grade Six pupil. She was asked by her teacher to write on
the board the different three-digit number combinations using the digits 3,
6, and 9.
How many possible numbers can she make out of these digits? What
are these?

▪ Who was asked by the teacher?

▪ What did the teacher ask her to do?
▪ If you were Marie, would you also obey your teacher?
▪ If you do not know the answer, what will you do?
▪ How do you feel if you have accomplished what your teacher asked you
to do?

What Is It
How many possible 3-digit number combination can she make out of 3, 6, and 9?
To find the number of combinations, we will follow these steps.
First, find all the number that start with 3.
❖ 369 and 396
Next, find all the numbers that start with 6.
❖ 639 and 693
Lastly, find all the numbers that start with 9.
❖ 936 and 963
So there are six possible numbers:
❖ 369, 396, 639, 693, 936 and 963
Another Example: (Using Tree Diagram)
Look at the menu below. How many ways can you order a beverage and a
burger?
HAMBURGERS
Regular burger
Cheese burger
Pizza burger

BEVERAGES9
Juice
Tea
 There is more than one way to solve this problem.
Solutions:
LISTING: Using RB for regular burger, CB for cheeseburger, PB for pizza
burger, J for juice, and T for tea.
OUTCOMES: a.) RB, J b.) RB, T c.) CB, J d.) CB, T e.) PB, J f.) PB, T

The list shows that there are 6 ways to order snacks.

TREE DIAGRAM

Snacks

RB CB PB

J T J T J T

RB & J RB & T CB & J CB & T PB & J PB & J

What’s More
It’s your turn!
Directions: Make listings or diagrams of outcomes and tell the number of
favorable outcomes and chances using these listings and
diagrams. Write each answer as a fraction in lowest terms
and as a percent in a sheet of paper.
Two coins are tossed at the same time. To find all the possible ways the
coins can land, copy and complete the diagram below. Then answer the
following questions.

H
H

H
T

Find the probability of:

1. Getting two heads

2. Getting a head and a tail
3. Getting two tails
4. Getting a tail on the second coin

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 What I Need To Remember

• When we use a formula to find the probability of an event, we are

finding the theoretical probability.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Theoretical Probability (event) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
• When we find the probability of an event by doing an experiment, we
are finding the experimental probability.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Experimental Probability =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

What I Can Do

Directions: Perform an experiment for each event and then list all the
possible outcomes. Write your answer on a separate sheet of
paper.
A. Each of the letters of the word “MATHEMATICS” is written on a separate
card. The cards are placed faced down and shuffled. A card is chosen at
random. What is the probability that it will show each of the following?

1. The letter M 3. The letter E

2. A vowel 4. The letter T

B. There are 3 ways of performing Task A. There are 4 ways of performing Task
B. Find the number of ways there are to perform Task A and then Task B.
Show this through a tree diagram.

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 Assessment (Post-Test)
Let us check your mastery of the lessons by answering the test.
Directions: Read and analyze each item carefully. Write the letter of your
answer on a piece of paper.

1. Mrs. Castro put the names of the days of the week in a circle. Marjorie will
choose a name at random. What is the probability that she will choose Sunday?
2 3 5 1
A. B. C. D.
7 7 7 7

2. Six marbles are placed in a bag. If three marbles are green (G) two are red (R)
and one is blue (B), what is the probability that a marble drawn is green?
1 1 1 1
A. B. C. D.
2 3 6 8

3. In item number 2, what is the probability that a marble drawn is not blue?
4 5 3 1
A. B. C. D.
6 6 6 6

4. Which color of marbles has more probability of being drawn?

A. Green B. Blue C. Red D. White

5. It is the ratio of the number of ways that can occur to the number of possible
outcomes.
A. event B. outcome C. statistics D. probability

6. It is a possible result in an experiment.

A. event B. guess C. outcome D. probability

7. What do we use in finding the theoretical probability?

A. experiment B. formula C. number D. statistics

8. When does the event most likely to happen?

A. When its probability is closer to 0 C. if it is certain to happen
B. When its probability is closer to 1 D. if it is impossible to happen

9. How do we find the experimental probability?

A. by doing an experiment C. by guessing
B. by using a formula D. by finding ways
10. One card is chosen at random from a deck. What is the probability of getting a
king?
2 3 4
C.
1
A. B. D.
52 52 52 52

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