Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95 – 116

www.elsevier.com/locate/geomorph

Slope failures in the Blue Nile basin, as seen from landscape

evolution perspective
Lulseged Ayalew *, Hiromitsu Yamagishi
Department of Environmental Science, Niigata University, 8050 Niigata, 950-251 Japan
Received 11 March 2002; received in revised form 13 January 2003; accepted 21 January 2003

Abstract

The Blue Nile basin is severely affected by slope failures, and the characteristics of its deep gorges and rugged valley walls
called for a study on the relationships between topography and the process of landsliding and rock falling. Work was
commenced with the conception of nine types of landforms on the basis of a one-to-one combination of lateral and vertical
slope profiles and thence the determination of the effect of these landforms on the occurrence of slope failures. Observations
showed that topographic surfaces with concave lateral profiles shelter mudflows and some retrogressive rotational slumps while
slopes characterized by planar lateral profiles are sites mainly for translational slides. Landslides are rare in convex-shaped
slopes but when they occur, they are big and deep-seated. As an effort to understand the significant contributions of landslides
and rock falls to landscape development, direct and indirect methods are employed. Direct methods are based on quantitative
relationships between the volume of material that had been removed from the area and the amount that could, in principle, be
taken away based on available erosion rates. Indirect methods used the nature of river incision and the effect of the present-day
landslides on the landscape. In general, discrepancy in calculated figures in the first, and the overall drop and form of the Abay
River gorge coupled with the observed landslide-caused landform changes in the second, led us to deduce that slope failures
were part of the mega-forces that shaped the entire Blue Nile basin, and in fact, played the dominant role in landscape evolution.
D 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Slope failure; Landslide; Rock fall; Landscape; Ethiopia; Blue Nile

1. Introduction region include deep-seated rotational slumps, massive

Slope failures both in the form of landslides and
rock falls affect much of the Blue Nile basin (the
Abay River and its tributaries). They occur in various
extents, starting roughly 150 km downstream from
Lake Tana, the probable source of the Abay River, up
to the border of Ethiopia and Sudan. Landslides in the
* Corresponding author. Fax: +81-25-2627289.
E-mail address: ayalew@env.sc.niigata-u.ac.jp (L. Ayalew).
translational slides, progressive creep movements, and
debris- and mudflows. Rock falls on the other hand
exist largely as discernible block topples and wedge
failures all along mountains, valley walls, and road
cuts. The effects of these landslides and rock falls are
known to be severe in many localities and demanded
an integrated study since the beginning of the 1990s.
The process of landsliding and rock falling in the
Blue Nile basin is a function of several factors, topo-
graphic constraints being the most substantial causes
of instability. This was widely discussed by EIGS

0169-555X/$ - see front matter D 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(03)00085-0
96 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116

Fig. 1. Regional setting of the study area.

 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
(1987, 1994), Ayalew and Temesgen (1995), Almaz
(1998), Ayalew (1999, 2000), and Ayalew and Yama-
gishi (2002a). On the other hand, little has been said
about the contribution of landslides and rock falls to
the characteristics of landscapes. Several investigators
believe that a series of tectonic disturbances during
the geological past, together with drainage-aided sur-
face erosion, led the geomorphology of most parts of
the northwest Ethiopian highlands including the Blue
Nile basin into the form that is observed today.
Evidence for such conclusions came from (1) the
presence of scarps of several meters in extent (Mohr,
1983; Chorowicz et al., 1998), (2) the proximity of the
highlands to the Ethiopian rift valley where faulting
and jointing in the latter led to disturbance and
denudation in the former (McDougall et al., 1975;
Mohr, 1983; Mohr and Zanettin, 1988), (3) the
numerous heaps of rock fragments available in low-
lands and agricultural fields (Westphal, 1975; Virgo
and Munro, 1978; Nyssen et al., 2000, 2002), and (4)
the high amount of dissolved solids in rivers and
streams (Hurni, 1985; Abate, 1990; Shiferaw and
Holden, 1999; Tegegne, 2000).
But, the unusual characteristics of the Abay River
gorge and its tributaries raised some issues such as how
the type of diffusive-form, drainage-aided surface
erosion observed today was successful after or togeth-
er with tectonic disturbances to create very deep and
wide gorges without a relatively rapid consumption of
abundant cliffs by other forces as is evident from steep-
sided valleys, degraded mesas, and tabular hills. More-
over, the principal phases of basin development and/or
landscape evolution in the region were so far not
hammered out well.
In this study, a survey was carried out on a portion
of the Blue Nile basin that stretches from Gohatsion to
Yet Nora, a small village about 8-km north of Dejen
(Fig. 1), to examine mainly the contribution of land-
slides and rock falls to the development of deep
gorges and thence to landscape evolution. The rela-
tionship between the two is thought to depend on
cause and effect chains. In this regard, the role of
slope failures in shaping landscapes can be ap-
proached in two ways; either through a quantitative
determination of the contribution of mass movements
at a larger scale or by studying the processes operating
at the level of individual landscapes in a small area
(Cendrero and Dramis, 1996). Investigating the nature
97
of river networks may also be taken as a third
alternative since it contributes a certain amount of
information towards a complete assessment of the
relationship between the two. This study used all of
these three approaches with the first as a direct means
and the second and third as indirect methods to draw
conclusions. The entire work was supported by data
from aerial photo interpretations, field surveys, and
25-m digital elevation model (DEM) analyses in a
GIS.
2. The study area
Much of the Blue Nile basin is covered by Mes-
ozoic sedimentary rocks and Trap Series basalts of
Middle Tertiary (Jespen and Athearn, 1961; Mohr,
1983; Mohr and Zanettin, 1988). The study area in
particular provides long cliffs of sandstone, limestone,
and gypsum intercalated with relatively soft units of
mudstone, shale, and marl (Getaneh, 1991; Russo et
al., 1994) capped by a succession of lava outpourings
which stand out in relief along gorges and depressions
(McDougall et al., 1975). The Abay River and its
tributaries cut deep into these rocks (Fig. 2) to form
what is known as ‘‘Africa’s Grand Canyon’’ in the
study area and further downstream, and it drains west
while collecting water and sediments from perennial
streams originating from the highlands. Its major
tributaries are usually characterized by steep-sided
valleys with V-shaped cross-sections. In some places,
frequent rapids and waterfalls are not uncommon in
these tributaries especially at times when summer
rains are high.
Although there is a thin forest cover in the lower
part of the Blue Nile basin, the upstream portion
including the study area has been used intensively
for agriculture and now contains little vegetation.
Despite the shortage of precipitation in most part of
northern Ethiopia, areas close to the Blue Nile Basin
usually get high, anomalous summer rains. These
rains are at present responsible for incidents of many
landslides and rock falls in the study area. Because of
material heterogeneity, knowledge on groundwater
conditions and the existence of regional hydraulic
continuity is still a matter for detailed borehole
investigation and instrumentation. But, the role of
groundwater in landslide initiations can generally be
98 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116

Fig. 2. A geological cross-section along the north – south section of the Abay River gorge (modified from Ayalew, 2000).

inferred from the existing seepages and springs in
exposures and other evidence such as localized weath-
ering and stains in rock joints.
3. Geomorphologic considerations
The influence of topography on slope movements
has been well known for decades or even centuries.
Accordingly, many works today focus simply on gen-
eralizing this idea by trying to correlate individual
landscape attributes and the processes of landsliding
and rock falling. Speight (1980) sorted out around 16
primary topographic attributes that can be used to
describe landforms and thence examine other pro-
cesses that are linked to them. Among these attributes,
the most important for the study of landslides are
probably elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, and
slope morphology as pointed out by Moore et al.
(1991). Beven and Kirkby (1979) and O’Loughlin
(1986) derived different forms of the wetness index,
which was used by Montgomery and Dietrich (1994) to
model the effect of topography on shallow landslides.
Currently, advances in computer graphics have
allowed many investigators to construct digital eleva-
tion models (DEM) and extract primary and secondary
 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
topographic attributes in order to study the relation-
ships between topography and slope movements. In
this study, we relied on this approach as there is an
advantage of getting a statistical clue on how topo-
graphic attributes can be linked with the distribution of
landslides and rock falls. For this purpose, we used a
25-m DEM prepared from the 1:50,000 scale topo-
graphic map of the study area. Thematic maps of pri-
mary topographic attributes were produced from this
DEM, and together with landslide and rock fall inven-
tories, they became the basis for our investigations.
3.1. Elevation, slope gradient, and slope aspect
The geomorphology of the Blue Nile basin as a
whole seems to be a reflection of the underlying
geology with steep-sided cliffs and associated
benches occurring at each of strong rock units and
long, gentle slopes and topographic breaks found on
soft rocks. Three deep gorges are available in the
study area, which correspond to the Abay, Muga,
and Bechet rivers as is shown in the relief map
given in Fig. 3. The gorge of Abay River extends
roughly east – west and its shape is slightly asym-
metrical with the north side of the valley wall having
11.1 km straight line distance and the southern flank
8.9 km. Taking the horizontal imaginary line
between the north and south apexes as a reference,
the gorge is incised into a plateau with an altitude of
2500 m and a depth of about 1.5 km, although the
total elevation difference in the study area is approx-
imately 1532 m with the maximum height of 2532
m registered near the villages of Yekoza and Yet
Nora (Fig. 3). The overall drop of the Abay River in
the study area is roughly 20 m. Gorges of the Muga
and Bechet rivers have north – south orientations and
are located on the northern side of the Abay River
(Fig. 3). Apart from the three gorges, there are many
small river valleys which seem to be still at a young
stage of development.
Fig. 4 presents the distribution of slope failures
against valley depth for the north and south flanks of
the Abay River. For simplicity, data were organized
on 100-m elevation basis, and the percentages of
landsides and rock falls were calculated using area
proportions in the lateral direction. As it is shown in
this figure, landslides are not common in the lower
portion of the valley. Instead, rock falls and rock
99
topples exist along sandstone cliffs and supply the
river with abundant boulders. The percentage of rock
fall decreases upward starting from roughly 1300-m
elevation mark on both flanks, with the degree of
reduction being higher in the south. Landslides start to
appear at an elevation of around 1700 m and cover a
wider area thereafter with a maximum percentage of
slope failures recorded in the range between 1900-
and 2000-m altitudes in the north, and 2100 and 2200
m in the south. Looking back at Fig. 2, these ranges of
elevations are marked by the contact between lime-
stone (marl) and lava flows. Instability is common at
these elevations because the summer rains that perco-
late through vertical joints of basalt can easily soften
the marls lying below (Ayalew, 2000). From 2200 m
upward, slope failures decrease significantly as the
valley grades to interfluves.
The concentration of landslides near the middle
portion of a valley is probably not a new phenom-
enon observed in Abay River gorge only. Dalrym-
ple et al. (1968) indicated the presence of flow,
slide, slump, and creep in what they called ‘‘trans-
portational mid-slope’’ of a valley while explaining
their hypothetical nine-unit land-surface model.
Gritzner et al. (2001) also observed a correlation
between relief and landslides in the Payette River,
Idaho and ascribed the situation to the concentration
of timber and road building activities at specific
altitudes. Moreover, landslides and elevation were
strongly correlated by Dai and Lee (2002) in
Lantau Island, Hong Kong, where the presence of
thick colluvium at mid-elevations led to high degree
of instability.
Slope gradient has a great influence on suscepti-
bility of a slope to landsliding and rock falling. This
has been illustrated in Fig. 4 for both flanks of the
Abay River. The strong variation in slope gradient
with elevation is also demonstrated in the same figure.
Generally speaking, deep-seated rotational and trans-
lational landslides occur when the gradient is in the
range of 10j to 35j. For an angle of 5j, inventorying
creeps and small-scale slumps are possible. A gradient
of more than 40j often favours rock falls and rock
topples. Gradient may explain the slight altitudinal
variation in the concentration of slope failures on the
south and north flanks of the Abay River.
Slope aspect can influence the distribution and
density of landslides by controlling the concentration
100 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116

Fig. 3. Relief map of the study area.

 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116 101

Fig. 4. The distribution of slope failures against valley depth and variation of slope gradient with elevation along the north – south section of the
Abay River gorge.

of soil moisture (Wieczorek et al., 1997) or the
orientation of tectonic fractures (Temesgen et al.,
2000). A variation in the degree of weathering and
basal erosion due to slope aspect was also reported by
Ayalew and Yamagishi (2002b) with an effect on
slope failure distribution. But, no correlation between
slope failures and aspect was observed in the Abay
River gorge. While slopes in the north and south
flanks are facing each other, those in Bechet and
Muga rivers are oriented dominantly west and east,
and landslides and rock falls were observed on all
surfaces, with variation in frequency unlikely to be
controlled by slope aspect.
3.2. Slope morphology
Slope profiles are basic attributes of the land
surface useful for the description of the landscape
and the analyses of landslides and rock falls. Given
the concentration of groundwater within concave
102 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
slopes and the resulting high pore water pressure in
the axial areas, most deterministic, limit-equilibrium
models, albeit their 2D features, have their bases in
slope morphology. While 2D limit-equilibrium mod-
els might be enough to analyze landslides on hills
and valley walls, slope failures in plains and moun-
tains need much complex and integrated approaches.
It might be for this reason that Ahnert (1976)
introduced a 3D process-response model of landform
development, although the method needed some sort
of refinement. 3D analyses are possible but are often
ignored in restricted engineering applications because
there is a need to maintain analytical simplicity of
the slip surface geometry (Brunsden, 1999), or they
can be averaged by considering a series of 2D
sections (Chen and Chameau, 1983; Bromhead,
1986).
It is known that landscapes are widely described
as convex, concave, or planar (straight, rectilinear).
These intuitional expressions, useful as they are for
communications and conventional analyses, are
limited for regional investigations of landforms since
they are usually used to describe the 2D outline of
the topography. Instead, many authors often adopt
working terminologies like hollows, cirques, drum-
lins, facets, segments, etc. Hollows are discrete
depositional environments on hillslopes where long-
term storage of colluvium typically alternates with
brief episodes of erosion by landsliding or gully
formation (Dietrich and Dunne, 1978; Okunishi and
Iida, 1983). Cirques and drumlins are concave and
convex landforms delimited by convex and concave
rims, respectively (Evans, 1998). They are also
defined as steep bowl-shaped hollows occurring at
the upper end of a mountain valley and elongated
hills or ridges of glacial drift, respectively (AHDEL,
2000). A facet is a horizontal, inclined, or vertical
plane, while segments are defined as smoothly
curved concave or convex upward surface areas
(Savigear, 1965). Dikau (1989) classified landform
elements by plan and profile curvature to define
basic relief units in 3D for soil mapping purposes.
Blaszczynski (1997) divided convex surfaces into
crests and side slopes and concave areas into
troughs, side slopes, open basins, and closed basins.
He also used expressions like sloping and horizontal
flats to describe planar landforms. Dai and Lee
(2002) used 10 categories of slope profiles for their
landslide analyses, although some of their terminol-
ogies have little to do with slope morphology.
Here, we attempted to divide the topography of the
study area into nine landforms, giving emphasis to
both lateral and vertical profiles, so that we could
benefit from the classification to investigate the influ-
ence of slope morphology on the occurrence and
distribution of landslides and rock falls. Our approach
is simply based on the recommendation of Kirkby
(1987), who stressed how difficult it is to aggregate
the effect of individual landslides to the assemblage of
slope failures over a long period of time and a wider
space and advised the use of slope profiles as a unit of
study. Like Dikau (1989), we combined plan and
profile curvatures, but unlike him, our classification
did not depend on the radius of curvature. Consider-
ing the nearly horizontal stratification of rocks of the
study area, we assumed that adjacent layers share
similar plan curvatures. While naming these land-
forms, we tried to adhere to old expressions when
we found it appropriate. Besides, we took a gradient
of 2j as a lower threshold to exclude horizontal
surfaces such as interfluves, peneplains, and thalwegs,
or channel beds. It must also be realized that we did
not consider the variation in the degree of curvature
between lateral and vertical profiles as we were most
interested on differences in shape.
3.2.1. Types of landforms
Fig. 5 presents the schematic illustration of land-
forms developed under the above conditions and
assumptions. The simplest among these is the land-
form where both the vertical (profile curvature) and
lateral (plan curvature) profiles are planar (P –P). This
kind of landscape is common in localities where the
slope is inclined smoothly in one direction, and the
underlying geology is relatively homogeneous.
Blaszczynski (1997) called these kinds of topographic
surfaces sloping flats, and we simply adopt this
nomenclature. Landslides on such types of landscapes
are translational or rectilinear, shallow and diffuse,
and are usually confused with massive forms of sheet
erosion. The infinite slope analysis of limit-equili-
brium models (Skempton and Delory, 1957) probably
had its basis in such landforms.
Concave – planar (C – P) landscapes are observed in
the upper parts of gorges where weathering along
vertical joints of basalt was strong in the past, allow-
 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116 103

Fig. 5. Schematic illustration of the nine landforms developed on the basis of combinations of lateral and vertical profiles.

ing many gullies to develop in parallel. It seems that
with time, these gullies converged and eroded the land
surface to form an inclined valley. The name sloping
valleys is, therefore, quite appropriate to these land-
forms. Lateral concavity is a function of rock falls.
Landslides, if present, are dominantly in the form of
rapid creep. During the rainy season, debris flows and
mudflows are also common.
Topographic surfaces with an outline of convex
lateral and planar vertical profiles (Cx –P) are found in
the study area squeezed into two sloping valleys.
Hence, they are called here sloping hills. They are
less common in the lower and middle portions of
gorges. Like their P – P and C – P counterparts, their
gradient is constant down-slope. But unlike them,
there is a relatively high degree of stability. When it
happens, landsliding is deep-seated.
Slopes with planar – concave (P – C) profiles are
observed in localities where ladle-shaped, gently slop-
ing marl- or mudstone-covered surfaces are confined
by resistant basalt or limestone cliffs from above and
below. They are termed sloping open basins since they
resemble depressions with no clear lateral limits.
Based on the definition of AHDEL (2000), these
104 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
topographic features are more or less similar to cirques
but with a relatively less curved vertical profile. They
are common on the middle portion of valley walls. In
the Abay River gorge, there are more of these land-
scapes on the northern than the southern flank. The
vast majority of landslides on these surfaces have
common features such as a surface of rupture similar
to the vertical slope profile, a main scarp which is a
mirror-image of the overlying cliffs, a landslide trail
where mass transport predominates, and a temporary
base where the majority of the landslide mass is
deposited. Hence, most of them can be modelled by
2D conventional methods of slices.
C – C profiles are characteristics of landscapes
which were dissected by long curved joints, along
which gully and rill erosion was selectively intensive,
allowing the flanks to stand out and form bowl-shaped
topographic surfaces. Because of the high amount of
moisture, these types of landscapes are found to be the
locations of many retrogressive upward-propagating
landslides which slowly revert to multiple rotational
slumps. On these surfaces, failure develops in two
distinct forms: rotational slips at the toe and middle
portion and major retrogressive sliding in the upper
part of the slopes. Hence, slip surfaces are usually not
a set of single circles, rather multi-tiered envelopes
whose extents are limited by the slope angle and the
characteristics of the materials underneath. Given their
biconcavity, they can be known as sloping closed
basins. It is also logical to consider them as hollows as
they are places where a significant amount of collu-
vium and boulders of basalt come to rest from above.
Topographic surfaces made up of Cx – C slope
profiles are usually present in areas where existing
cliffs portray strong lithological variations in the
horizontal direction. Examples are limestone cliffs in
a matrix of marl, common in the middle portion, or
gypsum terrains surrounded by shale and mudstone,
found in the upper part of the lower half of the study
area. The limestone and gypsum layers, being rela-
tively strong, can resist the process of degradation, or
even landslides en-masse, to produce hills which are
rimmed by concave lateral surfaces. Despite their
appearance of being rocky protrusions, we preferred
to call them sloping protuberant basins in order to
give much emphasis for the concave vertical profile.
As far as slope failures are concerned, rock slides near
the crown and small-scale slumps at the toe of slopes
are not uncommon on these types of landforms. Rock
fragments derived from rockslides and elongated
blocks of rocks are also available covering fields
immediately below.
The P –Cx forms of landscapes were observed in
areas where terrains are dissected by sub-parallel,
deeply incised ravines which can serve as lateral
limits of convexity. They are usually long laterally,
sometimes in hundreds of meters, and considering
their convex vertical profile, it might be correct to call
them sloping open ridges. Landslides on these surfa-
ces are complex, deep-seated, and need a long time to
develop, and if they occur, they are more likely to do
so in localities where groundwater flow is vigorous on
account of lenses of permeable materials. They are
less sensitive to short-term water influxes than those
landforms discussed above. Slip planes on these land-
scapes are usually concave. Landslides often initiate
rock falls at the top.
Landforms with C – Cx slope profiles are abundant
on the surface of soluble bedrock such as gypsum and
limestone. While the overall morphology still resem-
bles the structure of a hill, cave collapses initiated by
selective and deep subsurface dissolution in gypsum
and limestone were extended with time to adjacent
weak rocks such as shale, mudstone, and marl to form
big depressions. With their high standing shoulders
and the surrounding cliffs, they resemble hills that are
in the process of recession. Hence, they are referred to
as sloping recessing hills. During summer rains, small
slips created by rill erosion usually converge towards
these depressions to form mudflows. Large-scale land-
slides are rare, but rock falls, rockslides, and subse-
quent toppling effects are common in cliffs above.
Cx – Cx forms of landscapes are commonly adja-
cent to their C – Cx counterparts. The convex shape of
the topography drains water away from the region to
make them the most stable landforms in the study
area. But, if conditions suitable for instability are
created once, the resulting slope failures involve a
wide area, are usually a mixture of landslides and
rock falls, and have biconcave slip surfaces. In order
to echo their biconvex shape, we called them as
sloping inflated hills. Sometimes, the scarps at the
top shed some gravels and rock blocks but they are
taken downhill quickly and accumulate in valley
floors or at topographic breaks. Later, runoff trans-
ports them further downstream.
 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116 105

Fig. 6. (top) A slope curvature map for the north – south section of the Abay River gorge.
Fig. 7. (bottom) A statistics on the relative abundance of the nine landforms.
106 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
3.2.2. Discussions and statistics
The classification of landforms given above lends
itself to slope profile description at a decipherable
scale. This is to say that we gave little attention to the
effect of minor scale roughness. Some properties such
as the runout distance of landslides can be affected
equally by both small-scale undulations and large-size
topographic irregularities. There is no universally
accepted definition for what a runout distance is, but
it is known as the distance from the top part of the
plane of rupture to the lower rim of the displaced
material measured parallel to the slope (Okura et al.,
2003). Our sporadic observations on both flanks of
the Abay River gorge allowed us to conclude that
while movements of landslides on landforms with
planar vertical profiles are affected largely by small-
scale undulations and roughness in the lateral direc-
tion, the run-out distance on concave and convex
vertical profiles showed little variation in relation to
curved-in or curved-out geometry.
Having said this, let us review some important
points. The type of landslide occurring in a certain
landform is usually a function of the lateral profile, as
mudflows are common when the latter is concave.
Vertical profiles govern the run-out distance of dis-
turbed materials as is discussed above. Some other
properties like the distribution, frequency of occur-
rence, the shape of rupture surface, etc. are functions
of both lateral and vertical profiles. Besides, while the
distribution of landforms can to a certain extent be
correlated with elevation, we saw no apparent rela-
tionship between the former and either slope gradient
or aspect. Even elevation itself affects mainly the
vertical profile, in that concave-shaped landscapes
such as P – C, C– C, and Cx – C are common at mid-
altitudes, whereas other types of landforms are spread
ubiquitously in the lower and upper portions of the
river gorges.
Apart from such observations which may be in
complete contrast with cases in other areas, the
classification given above can conventionally be
adopted to describe the influence of landforms on
the occurrence and distribution of slope failures. But,
the classification system makes no claim that topo-
graphic surfaces should take one of those landforms
given here especially in regions where geological
complexity is strong. It simply provides a method
whereby actual profiles of landforms can be combined
objectively so that description of slope failures at a
particular level of detail is possible.
In order to know how the nine landforms are
distributed in the study area, we produced thematic
maps of profile and plan curvatures using the 25-m
DEM mentioned earlier. Later, we combined these
maps to obtain a plot which shows how the landforms
are scattered. That part of this plot, which corresponds
for the north – south section of the Abay River gorge,
is presented in Fig. 6. In this figure, it is possible to
distinguish some types of landforms (such as bicon-
vex and biconcave landscapes), but others, especially
topographic surfaces with planar lateral profiles, are
extremely difficult to identify. This shows how the
spatial variation of landforms is strong in the study
area. The specific combination occurring at a certain
place is a function of differences in factors such as
lithology, stratigraphy, relief, microclimate, slope
aspect, gradient, weathering and dissolution, land
cover and land use, and drainage.
In order to enhance our work further, we calculated
the percentages of distribution of landforms both on
the north and south flanks of the Abay River and
throughout the study area. The bar diagram shown in
Fig. 7 are results of this calculation. It is seen that
sloping inflated hills or biconvex landforms dominate
the Abay River section with virtually no difference
when the study area as a whole is taken into consid-
eration. Sloping closed basins, the little expected
protuberant basins, and recessing hills follow in this
order in terms of abundance. It is ironic but a fact that
sloping open ridges, sloping open basins, and sloping
flats are available only in smaller proportions. Sloping
valleys and sloping hills are extremely rare. The
implication of this statistical observation is that,
although slip surfaces do not exactly follow the shape
of the landscape and could be concave or planar in
convex-shaped landforms, the use of 2D limit-equili-
brium models with an assumption of P –C or P – P
slope profiles where in fact such topographic surfaces
are rare, leads to wrong conclusions.
4. Slope failures and landscape evolution
In the previous section, we attempted to describe
how topographic attributes in general or the nine
landforms in particular can control the occurrence,
 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
type, and distribution of landslides and rock falls. In
this section, we will concentrate on the contribution of
slope failures to the formation of the landforms
themselves. By doing so, we are aiming to highlight
the cause and effect relationship between slope fail-
ures and topography throughout landscape evolution.
The role of slope failures in landscape evolution in
general has been discussed by several authors includ-
ing Arnett (1971), Brunsden and Kesel (1973), Rad-
bruch-Hall and Varnes (1976), Selby (1982), Sorriso-
Valvo (1985), Johnson (1987), and Lomoschitz et al.
(2002). Hutchinson (1973) explained how a sequence
from large deep-seated rotational landslides in London
Clay cliffs towards smaller and shallower slides had
occurred while the profile declines in average gradient
to a rather uniform slope at an ultimate threshold
value. Francis (1987) used the threshold concept to
point out that slopes with greater angles develop
mainly by mass movements, not by surface erosion
as is generally expected.
The fact that a single slope movement can have a
large enough impact on landscapes to strongly influ-
ence the course of subsequent development of the
topography and thence loadings and pore-water dis-
tributions has been extensively discussed by Kirkby
(1987). While revising existing slope evolution models
incorporating landslides and rock falls, he acknowl-
edged that forecasts of long-term slope evolution by
slope failure are very imperfect. The reason which he
gave at that time was the fact that most of these models
did not attempt to cover the full range of possible
processes and types of mass movements, concentrating
mainly on shallow soil landslides or surface erosion;
partly because they aim at average evolution rather
than identifying the effect of individual, large slope
failures stochastically or analytically; and partly
because existing mass movement theories were largely
concerned with stability analysis rather than subse-
quent movement of failed material. He also raised the
threshold concept and stated that when slope move-
ments are compared with water-produced soil erosion,
it is seen that the former is characterized by a lower
threshold below which their rate is negligible and
above which it increases rapidly and becomes vital
for landscape evolution.
After discussing the pros and cons of several slope
evolution models, Cendrero and Dramis (1996) pointed
out that in an area where hydraulic conductivity was
107
high for a long time, slope instability could be the
dominant agent responsible for the formation of land-
scapes. They suggested the use of a series of sectors
characterized by combinations of conditioning mor-
pho-dynamic processes to describe slope evolution in
large areas. They also stressed that landslide activities
directly create different landforms and provided several
clues, or what they called possible indicators, to study
topographic surfaces shaped by slope failures.
Densmore et al. (1997) used red and white beans to
demonstrate the evolution of slopes by landslides and
rock falls under laboratory conditions. The beans
approximated the behaviour of a rock mass whose
strength depends on both the shear strength of the
zones of weakness within it and the anisotropy of
individual blocks. After running several experiments,
they suggested that the first landforms to be formed in
hillslopes are steep lower segments, mainly because of
basal undercutting. This leads to large, infrequent,
slope-clearing events and finally to resetting of the
stable slope. They acknowledged some of the short-
comings of their experiment, as for example the fact
that the strength in beans did not change with time
like that of the rock masses and the stresses in terrains,
but insisted that their results largely reflect what is
happening in nature. According to them, smaller
slides, which are restricted to the lower part of a hill,
are responsible for most of the observed variations in
slope morphology.
Here, we want to echo the opinion of Kirkby
(1987), Cendrero and Dramis (1996), and Densmore
et al. (1997) through a discussion on how slope
failures were able to modify landscapes in the Blue
Nile basin. By doing so, we are aiming to highlight
our concern that many works simply focus on drain-
age-aided surface erosion while trying to address
issues such as environmental degradation or even
landscape evolution in the area. Actually, the deep
gorges of the Blue Nile basin are not consonant with
the action of erosion alone, which unlike landslides
need the formation of soils first. In fact, the contribu-
tion of surface erosion was largely limited to the
removal of unconsolidated materials, with an end
result of modifying and amplifying small-scale topo-
graphic features such as pits and peaks, and increasing
roughness. This has also been pointed out by Weissel
et al. (1995). There is also no evidence for intensive
Pleistocene glaciation in the Blue Nile basin in north-
108 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
ern Ethiopia (Messerli and Rognon, 1980; Hurni,
1989). Slope failures were, therefore, the main factors
which brought about large scale modifications in the
landscape. We will try to reason out this in the
following sections based on direct and indirect
approaches.
4.1. Volume-based valley section analyses
In order to verify the contribution of landslides to
landscape evolution in the study area, first we used the
relative difference between the amount of soil and
rock materials removed from the study area since the
beginning of valley incision and the amount that could
be removed from the region based on suggested
erosion rates as direct quantitative evidence. As men-
tioned earlier, this is in accordance with the sugges-
tion given by Cendrero and Dramis (1996). It is
known that the Abay River crosses several geologic
units. The first 150 km of its course lies on lava flows.
It reaches the study area after it travels about 195 km,
by which time it is already 1200 m deep into Meso-
zoic sedimentary rocks.
The first comprehensive study of the denudation of
Trap Series basalts in the Blue Nile basin was most
probably that of McDougall et al. (1975). After
collecting interstitial glass-containing rock samples,
they determined the age of lava flows in the study
area, which was found to be less than 30 Ma, almost
similar to the 29.6 F 0.1 Ma of Hoffmann et al.
(1997). According to them, this could be a lower
limit to the age of incision by the Abay River into the
highlands. Weissel et al. (1995), while studying the
development of the southern part of the north –west-
ern highlands of Ethiopia including the Blue Nile
basin on the basis of fractal analyses, stressed the lack
of evidence for the existence of pre-lava well-devel-
oped river systems in the region.
For determination of denudation rates, McDougall
et al. (1975) assumed that the Abay River and its
tributaries supply the main Nile River with more than
90% of the sediment load, which was later confirmed
by Abate (1990). After taking into consideration the
lower age of formation of lava flows, allowing for the
difference in bulk density between deltaic sediments in
Egypt and eroded bedrocks in Ethiopia, and assuming a
30% loss in solution from the highlands, McDougall et
al. (1975) suggested a mean erosion rate of 12 F 6 m3
km 2 year 1 (0.012 mm year 1) over the past 23.5
Ma. They also found a value of 15 F 7.5 m3 km 2
year 1 (0.015 mm year 1) by calculating the volume
of rock eroded from the Abay River and its major
tributaries using contour maps and acknowledged that
modern erosion rates are far higher than this value.
Then, they came up with a suggestion of 0.12– 0.24
mm year 1 for current situations comparing the con-
tribution of the Blue Nile and White Nile to the sedi-
ment accumulation in Nile Delta basin. There was,
however, no indication from when this value holds true.
On the basis of the 25-m DEM, the total area
considered in this study is around 7.6  108 m2. Ear-
lier, it was mentioned that the lower limit of valley
incision in the area is about 1000 m. Although the
original summit of lava flows could be higher than the
current ridge-top contour lines, we assumed that over-
all surface lowering was far outweighed by valley
incision in the past and has little influence in our
quantitative analyses. This is also based on the obser-
vations of Clayton (1997) in United Kingdom and
Mather et al. (2002) in Spain for river valleys. Hence,
we considered the present-day maximum elevation
(2532 m) of the study area as the historical apex of the
plateau. From the elevation difference (1532 m) and
surface area, it was possible to calculate the volume of
rock mass that was originally deposited as 1.16  1012
m3. Besides using the 25-m DEM and mean valley
sections, the amount of material still available in the
site was determined to be 6.10  1011 m3. The differ-
ence between the two volumes, which is 5.5  1011
m3, is in principle the amount of material that was
taken away by river erosion, assuming that the latter
was the sole process responsible for the formation of
landscapes.
To check whether this is true or not, we took into
account the various rates of erosion suggested by
McDougall et al. (1975) and considered that the
longest probable age of lava flows (30 Ma) corre-
sponds to the lower limit of valley incision in the area
as is mentioned above. The amount of soils and rocks
that could be removed from the study area under the
rate of erosion of 0.012 mm year 1 was then
2.74  1011 m3. With 0.015 mm year 1 erosion rate,
this value was changed into 3.42  1011 m3. Ironi-
cally, both of these figures are less than the 5.5  1011
m3 volume of soils and rocks that had been already
taken away from the area. In fact, there are deficits of
 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116 109

2.76  1011 and 2.08  1011 m3, respectively. Even

assuming a value of 0.24 mm year 1 starting from
Late Pleistocene (1 Ma), the total volume of rocks
eroded from the area was found to be 5.1  1011 m3.
This value is still 4  1010 m3 short of 5.5  1011 m3.
This discrepancy in calculated figures is a rational
proof for the removal of soils and rocks from the area
by processes other than surface erosion, or in this case
by slope failures. The latter was not considered by
McDougall et al. (1975) to determine rates of ero-
sions, or completely neglected by many others, prob-
ably because it was difficult to incorporate the
cumulative effect of individual landslides and rock
falls as it was pointed out by Kirkby (1987).

4.2. River incision as indirect clue

Evidence for the role of slope failures in modifying

the landscape can also be inferred from the nature of
river incision that was once characteristic of the study
area. It is known that to form a deep canyon of the
Blue Nile type, there needs to be a strong incision
through the bedrock in the geologic past. Incision
could have begun along extensional joints of basalt as
modern springs do or simply following regional
tectonic fractures as Weissel et al. (1995) suggested.
Once started, however, the degree of incision seemed
to be largely controlled by the strength of rocks, the
change in the baselevel, relief, and climate. Fig. 8
presents the unconfined compressive strength of rocks
as a function of elevation in the study area. High
values correspond to basalt in the upper part, lime-
stone in the middle, and sandstone in the lower potion
of the basin. The difference in strength of rock masses
means a possible variation in incision rate as is
discussed by Selby (1987). But, strength helps little
in quantifying incision rate or in answering questions
such as when and where the latter was strong and
what were the short-term consequences. In order to
Fig. 8. The unconfined compressive strength of rocks as a function
answer these questions, one must look at the way the of elevation.
baselevel, relief, and climate were changing through-
out the history of the development of the Blue Nile
basin.
While discussing the response of a river to a change responses are concerned. He noted that, if baselevel
in the baselevel, Schumm (1993) stated that, although lowering is small, a channel can adjust to a change of
the direction of change in the baselevel determines slope by changing its pattern, by increasing bed
whether a river aggrades or degrades, the magnitude of roughness, or by changing shape. If the change is
this change is the most important factor as far as river large, strong river incision is likely, and if it is very
110 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
large, rejuvenation of the entire drainage network may
result. The author also pointed out that a change in
relief or regional uplift would rejuvenate the upper part
of a river, so that the latter can erode large quantities of
sediments. Besides, Schumm (1993) concluded that
base-level changes could affect a valley for perhaps
300 km, as in the Mississippi, whereas increase in
relief and climate change can affect the entire fluvial
system. Yoxall (1969) stressed that, apart from mag-
nitude and direction, the rate of change of baselevel is
also important to control the nature of river incision.
According to this author, when the lowering of base-
level is fast, a stream incises vertically with little
lateral migration, whereas when the change is slow,
considerable lateral migration takes place, permitting
the channel to adjust its slope.
It is mentioned that the Abay River starts from
Lake Tana and drains on a flat plain before it reaches a
vertical scarp, around 30 km downstream, which
forced it to form a waterfall. From there the river is
confined to a narrow valley but still flows east with
little drop. At around 95-km mark, it sharply rotates to
the south apparently starting a gradual turn to the
west. It switches to the southwest, then to the west at
the locality where Mesozoic sedimentary rocks out-
crop, about 150 km downstream from Lake Tana.
Weissel et al. (1995) suggested that this shift towards
the west occurred as a result of flexural uplift of that
part of the plateau found east of the Blue Nile in
response to Late Miocene rifting of the Ethiopian rift
valley. According to them, this process reorganized
the existing drainage system in a relatively short time
and also inaugurated a new template so that today, the
entire river and stream system flows to the west.
A series of regional uplifts was expected to be the
norm for the Blue Nile basin and its surroundings in
the geologic past as is reported by several investiga-
tors. Merla (1963) suggested that uplift in the Ethio-
pian highlands occurred in Miocene and Pliocene –
Pleistocene epochs (cited by McDougall et al., 1975).
Between these two, the Pliocene– Pleistocene uplift
was relatively abrupt and rapid (Mohr, 1967). Faure
(1973) suggested an uplift of 0.1 mm year 1 from
Middle Tertiary to the Quaternary and 0.5– 1.0 mm
year 1 during the Late Pleistocene (cited by McDou-
gall et al., 1975). Uplift since the last 8 Ma of the Tana
basin region through some 1000 m was indicated by
Yemane et al. (1985) from Paleo-floral evidence.
Little is known of the pre-Quaternary climate of the
Ethiopian highlands. However, wetter conditions are
largely expected (Yemane et al., 1985). In the Pleis-
tocene, glaciation is thought to be not strong around
the Blue Nile basin and its surrounding highlands
compared with those mountains south of the Ethio-
pian rift valley (Hurni, 1989). The Holocene has had
the attention of some investigators, and the presence
of three major wet periods (ca. 4000 –3500, 2500–
1500, and 1000 –960 year BP) alternating with dry
period has been reported for the northern part of
Ethiopia (Machado et al., 1998). This could also be
true for the area around the Blue Nile basin where
variations in climate have an identical effect at the
present time.
The fact that there was major uplift in the Pleisto-
cene, and the existence of strong climatic variations in
the Holocene, implies the existence of strong rejuve-
nation and valley incision during the Quaternary.
Given the major uplift occurring in the Pliocene–
Pleistocene, considering the strength of lava flows
compared to the underlying sedimentary rocks, and
observing the current morphology of the relatively
less deep portion of the upstream part of the Blue Nile
basin, we assume that valley incision was initiated in
the upper 150 km of the Abay River course before or a
little after the beginning of the Quaternary. Then, the
degree of incision increased rapidly given the abrupt
and rapid uplift of the Pleistocene, and it is at that time
that slope failures started to play a major role in
landscape evolution by modifying the pre-existing
landforms.
In order to investigate how incision progressed
during the Quaternary, let us compare the ratio
between channel length and drop for three sections
of the Abay River. For the first 150 km, there is a drop
of 300 m. For the stretch between the 150-km mark
and the study area (195 km), the drop increases to
1200 m. From the study area to the Sudan border, the
drop becomes around 400 m. Looking at these values
and recalling the discussion by Schumm (1993), it is
possible to deduce that change in the base-level was
so slow initially (probably from Oligocene to Quater-
nary) while the river was incising into the lava flows.
Then, incision into the sedimentary rocks was rela-
tively rapid, maybe as a result of uplift and a high rate
of change of the baselevel. But, only when the
incision of the gorge was about 300– 400 m in depth
 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116 111

Fig. 9. The drop and sinuosity of streams and gullies in the study area.

and reached the marl should the first rock falls and
rock topples of the upper-lying lava flows occur.
Good evidence for these rock falls and rock topples
to predate other slope failures is that some blocks are
now found beyond the immediate fall area, having
been transported by landslides occurred later. If this
interpretation is correct, then the rock falls are prob-
ably of Middle to Late Pleistocene age and form part
of a long history of slope instability.
A channel confined within a narrow valley can only
aggrade or degrade, and degradation was what seems
to happen to the Abay River at the end of Pleistocene

Fig. 10. A landslide with biconcave slip surface developed on biconvex hill.
112 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116

Fig. 11. First time rotational slump on the southern side of Abay River gorge.

Fig. 12. First time retrogressions at the head of a previous landslide.

 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116 113

or at the beginning of the Holocene. Once constricted various landslides and rock falls occurring at the
valley walls cut into the basalt, the river responded to present time affect the topography of the study area
further changes in the baselevel by degradation. With in particular or of the Blue Nile basin in general. A
the presence of incompetent sedimentary rocks such as landslide that occurred in October 1993 on the northern
marl and mudstone, conditions were then created for side of the Abay River gorge can be taken as an
landslides to occur. Valley widening occurred as a example (Fig. 10). The original topography was bicon-
result of these landslides and retreating rock cliffs as is vex with an inclination of roughly 16j. After failure,
now evident by the remaining tabular hills and mesas. the resulting landscape became biconcave. Rock falls
The three wetter episodes of the Holocene reported by and debris slides which occurred later in the aftermath
Machado et al. (1998) were probably a major cause of right at the head and shoulders of the failed slope
deep-seated landslides in the region which changed the modified the surrounding region and produced an
earlier convex topographic surfaces to the planar or undulating terrain whose geometries are even now left
concave slopes of today. Lobe-shaped deposits found at the mercy of new cycles of slope movement.
in the middle portion of the northern side of the Abay Of course previous and present-day landslides and
River gorge are probably remnants of slope failures of rock falls landscape development vary greatly either in
that generation. frequency or magnitude. In the study area, the effects
With further passage of time, it seems that rock
falls and landslides in the upper and middle portions
of the valley walls became less dependent on river
incision. Rather, they turned out to be a function of
susceptible stratigraphy, climatic variations, and
human activity. A slight decrease in average yearly
rainfall over the Ethiopian highlands since the begin-
ning of the 20th century was reported by Conway
(2000). While this may lead to an expectation of a
decrease in the influence of climate, anomalous high
amount of rains are still common in the Blue Nile
basin, and coupled with anthropogenic factors, control
the mechanisms of failure of present-day landslides
and rock falls (Ayalew, 1999, 2000). Evidence for the
beginning of the human impact on the environment
in Ethiopia dates back to 1500 – 2000 years BP
(Mohammed, 2002).
Today, there are more than 1000 gullies and
streams in the study area, as depicted on the 25-m
DEM mentioned earlier. The drop and sinuosity of
these gullies and streams are given in Fig. 9. It is
possible to see from this figure that the average drop is
around 136 m while the sinuosity is hardly above 1.4.
This indicates that most of the streams are still in steep
valleys where sideward erosion is difficult. More
slope failures are, therefore, yet to come, bringing
with them new landscapes.

4.3. Evidence from present-day slope failures

Another indirect way of justifying the role of slope

failures in landscape evolution is to look at how the Fig. 13. Long column of sandstone which is liable to rock falling.
114 L. Ayalew, H. Yamagishi / Geomorphology 57 (2004) 95–116
of Pleistocene landslides, if there were any, are now
largely subdued and hard to recognize. But ancient,
ancient historic, and recent historic landslides (nomen-
clatures taken from Flageollet, 1996), all of which
occurred in the Holocene, left their own geomorphic
signatures at different scales. The fact that biconcave
landforms are next to biconvex slopes in abundance in
the present-day landscape, as it was shown by statis-
tical analyses in the previous section, can be a result of
the action of Holocene slope failures. The absence of
vegetation and the ever increasing human interference
means that present-day landslides, which include
creep, first-time rotational slumps (Fig. 11), gravity-
aided translational slides, mud flows, and first-time
retrogressions at the head of previous landslides (Fig.
12) together with rock falls (Fig. 13), have a greater
influence on the current topography at a larger scale
than their ancient counterparts.
5. Conclusion
Taking a portion of the Blue Nile basin as a study
area, we attempted to shed light on the cause and
effect chain which links topography and slope fail-
ures. Discussion started with an illustration of the
correlations between primary topographic attributes
such as elevation, gradient and aspect, and landslides
and rock falls. Then, nine types of landform were
developed based on a combination of lateral and
vertical slope failures. The influence of these land-
forms on the type and distribution of landslides was
identified. DEM-based statistical analyses showed
that biconvex and biconcave topographic surfaces
are the most common forms of landscapes in the
study area. It is ironic that slopes with planar lateral
profiles and concave vertical profiles, on which most
slope stability analyses are based, occur only in a
small amount. While landforms with convex lateral
profiles are the most stable, failure if it occurs,
involves quite a big area, and the resulting landscape
is often biconcave. Topographic surfaces with con-
cave lateral profiles are usually sites for mudflows
during the rainy season, whereas long travel distances
of sliding materials are registered on landscapes made
up of planar lateral profiles.
Evidence for the role of landslides in modifying the
landscape came from quantitative and qualitative
methods. The first was linked to volume-based valley
section analyses using DEM and calculations of the
amount of materials that are supposed to have been
eroded from the area according to available erosion
rates. A discrepancy in calculated figures allowed us
to conclude that slope failures were the dominant
forces that shaped not only the landscapes of the
study area but also the Blue Nile basin as a whole.
Qualitative methodologies considered the process of
valley incision in the geologic past and evidence from
the action of the present-day landslides. By discussing
how factors such as regional uplift and climatic
variation affected valley incision in the Quaternary
and by emphasizing the effect of the latter on slope
failures and the drop and form of the Abay River
gorge, we attempted to explain the contribution of
landslides and rock falls to landscape evolution,
especially once incision started into the sedimentary
rocks. Moreover, permanent changes caused by
present-day landslides indicate that this had been the
case throughout the evolution of drainage basin.
Acknowledgements
Financial support by the Japan Society for the
Promotion of Science (JSPS) is highly acknowledged.
We express our gratitude to two anonymous referees
for their strong critiques on an earlier version of this
manuscript.
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