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A Drop in American Gun Violence

Some progress has been made on firearm violence in recent
decades.

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A vigil in Maine. Hilary Swift for The New York Times

By German Lopez

Nov. 1, 2023

American gun violence can feel like an unsolvable problem, with

every mass shooting, like last week’s killings in Maine, affirming
that the situation is getting worse. But the U.S. has in fact made
some progress over the past few decades, enacting policies that
have saved lives.

That is the conclusion of a new study by Patrick Sharkey and

Megan Kang at Princeton. Stricter gun laws passed by 40 states
from 1991 to 2016 reduced gun deaths by nearly 4,300 in 2016, or
about 10 percent of the nationwide total. States with stricter laws,
such as background checks and waiting periods, consistently had
fewer gun deaths, as this chart by my colleague Ashley Wu shows:

State-level Gun Regulations and Death Rates

Alaska
20 gun deaths La.
per 100,000 residents Ala.
Wy. Miss.
Ark.
S.C. Mont. Okla.
Mo. N.M. W.V.
15 Tenn. Nev.
Ky. Idaho N.C. Ariz.
Ga. Ind. Colo.

Ore. Fla.
Kansas N.D.
Texas Pa. Del.
Utah
Md.
S.D. Maine
10 Ohio
Vt. Va.
Mich. Ill. Neb.
Calif.
Iowa N.H. Wis.
Wash.
Lower gun Minn.
death rate N.J.
5 R.I. N.Y.
Conn.

Mass. Hawaii

0 More restrictive gun regulations

−10 0 10 20
Gun regulation index

Notes: Gun death rates are averages from 2012 to 2016, and the gun regulation index is from 1991 to
2016. • Source: Sharkey and Kang, Princeton University • By Ashley Wu

Sharkey told me that the results had surprised him. He has studied
violent crime for years, and did not believe that stricter gun laws
had a major effect in reducing it. His new takeaway: “The
challenge of gun violence is not intractable, and in fact we have just
lived through a period of enormous progress that was driven by
public policy.”

The country’s progress on guns may surprise you, too. It certainly

surprised me. It’s worth reflecting on why. If the data is clear, why
haven’t we heard more about these outcomes? To my mind, the
lack of attention shows the narrow view that many of us often take
toward gun policy.

The smaller things

The national conversation about gun violence focuses on big
federal policy ideas. Activists and pundits often speak about the
need for a federal law enacting universal background checks or
banning assault weapons. Anything short of action at the national
level will fail to make the U.S. as safe as Canada, Europe or Japan,
the argument goes.

It’s true that guns kill many more people in the U.S. than in other
rich countries, and America will likely remain an outlier for the
foreseeable future. But the study by Sharkey and Kang shows that
changes at the state level can have an effect. Even policies that
seem limited, like safety-training requirements or age restrictions,
add up.

“There’s no single policy that is going to eliminate the flow or

circulation of guns within and across states,” Sharkey said. “But
the idea is these kinds of regulations accumulate.”

After all, America’s gun problem is rooted in easy access to

firearms. In every country, people get into arguments, hold racist
views or suffer from mental health issues. But when these
problems turn violent, quick access to guns makes that violence
much more likely to become lethal.

Anything that adds barriers to picking up a firearm in such

moments reduces deaths, whether it’s incremental state policies or
broader federal laws. The new study is one part of a broader line of
research demonstrating that point.

Among the many new laws put in place since 1991: California
required background checks on private gun sales in 1991,
Massachusetts tightened child-access laws in 1998 and Virginia
restricted gun ownership by people with mental illnesses in 2008.

Customers at Three Cousins Firearms, a gun shop in Lewiston, on Friday. Andrew Cullen
for The New York Times

After 2016
There is a major caveat to the progress that Sharkey and Kang
documented: It seems to have ended.

The new study cuts off in 2016 because later data was not available
at the time of the research, Sharkey said. Since 2016, many states
have loosened their gun laws, in some cases because Supreme
Court rulings have forced them to do so. And firearms sales have
surged, particularly during the Covid pandemic.

Congress did pass a narrow gun control law last year that extended
background checks and funded anti-violence policies, and some
states have continued tightening gun laws. On net, though, U.S.
gun laws have become looser in the past seven years.

Gun deaths have increased over the same period, and mass
shootings have become more common. These trends — a rise in
deaths, looser laws and increased firearm purchases — are likely
related, Sharkey said. He pointed out that the six states that had
weakened their gun laws from 1991 to 2016 appeared to have
experienced more gun deaths than other factors suggested they
should have.

As more states have loosened their laws in recent years, they have
set themselves up for more gun deaths. “If states take basic steps
to regulate guns, it will save thousands and thousands of lives,”
Sharkey said. The opposite is also true.

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Border Crossing
The authorities in Gaza let some foreign passport holders and
seriously wounded Palestinians leave the territory and enter
Egypt.

Americans are expected to leave later this week. Antony Blinken,

the U.S. secretary of state, blamed Hamas for blocking them from
crossing the border.

Jabaliya Strike

In the Jabaliya refugee camp. Reuters

An Israeli airstrike hit a densely populated neighborhood north of

Gaza City called Jabaliya. Photographs showed a large crater and
several demolished buildings.

Israel said the strike killed Hamas fighters, including a

commander who helped lead the Oct. 7 attacks. The Hamas-run
Ministry of Health in Gaza said it killed or wounded many people.
The Times could not verify either claim.

More on the War

Israeli forces reached another neighborhood north of Gaza City.
At least a quarter of buildings in northern Gaza are damaged,
these maps show.

Communication and internet services have been cut again in

Gaza.

American commandos are in Israel to help locate the more than

200 hostages seized by Hamas.

Times videographers visited a U.N. camp in southern Gaza,

where half the population is younger than 12, to understand what
the war looks like through a child’s eyes.

Threats
Jews in Europe, living in a climate of fear, are experiencing “a
fundamental shift in the terms of their existence,” Roger Cohen
writes.

The war has heightened the potential for attacks in the U.S.,
especially against Jews or Muslims, the F.B.I. director said.

Diplomacy
The Senate confirmed Jack Lew, a former Treasury secretary, to
be the U.S. ambassador to Israel.

The head of Jerusalem’s Holocaust memorial criticized Israel’s

U.N. ambassador for wearing a yellow Star of David at the
Security Council.

MORE NEWS

Technology
The Supreme Court heard arguments about whether elected
officials’ social media accounts are allowed to block their
constituents.

Kamala Harris is pushing for global standards on A.I. at a summit

in London this week.

Orlando schools have banned phone use all day — even during
free periods — and student engagement has increased.

Health
A new treatment that uses CRISPR gene editing to combat sickle
cell disease is safe and effective, an expert panel said. If
approved, it would be the first treatment for humans to use
CRISPR.

A terminally ill man who received a heart from a genetically

modified pig has died, six weeks after the transplant.

International

Shipping containers. Nathalia Angarita for The New York Times

A drought means the Panama Canal can carry fewer boats,

disrupting trade.

New immigration policies, global migration patterns and

changing demographics help to explain the record number of
illegal crossings into the U.S. from Mexico.

The Venezuelan government is trying to annul the opposition’s

primary election.

Workers who left villages for big cities helped China rise as a
superpower. Without a safety net or family nearby, the country’s
economic downturn has left them vulnerable, Li Yuan writes.

Other Big Stories

The House speaker has proposed separating aid to Ukraine from
aid to Israel, potentially weakening Ukraine. Some Senate
Republicans want to keep them linked.

Some pharmacy workers at CVS and Walgreens are calling in

sick or walking out over job conditions. Read more about the
latest labor protest.

A court ruled that the National Association of Realtors and

several large brokerages conspired to inflate agents’
commissions.

A woman in North Dakota has been accused of fatally poisoning

her boyfriend with antifreeze. She told investigators she was
entitled to part of his $30 million inheritance.

Opinions
The skepticism people have over Hamas’s atrocities stems from
the lies the U.S. told to justify the Iraq war, Zeynep Tufekci argues.

Here are columns by Ross Douthat on Israel and the Palestinians

and Jamelle Bouie on gun culture.

MORNING READS

Heidi Klum Krista Schlueter for The New York Times

Costume party: Heidi Klum, known for her elaborate Halloween

outfits, enlisted Cirque du Soleil performers this year to transform
her into a giant peacock.

Too steep: A dad worried his rock-climbing adventure had pushed

his son too far. Experts say it’s good to challenge our kids — within
reason.

Lives Lived: Bertie Bowman began his career in the U.S. Capitol in
1944, sweeping its steps. By the 1960s he was a clerk for the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, and he eventually became the
longest-serving Black staff member in congressional history. He
died at 92.

SPORTS

N.F.L.: The Las Vegas Raiders fired their head coach, Josh
McDaniels, and their general manager, Dave Ziegler.

Trade deadline: Chase Young and Josh Dobbs found new homes as
N.F.L. teams made last-minute changes to their rosters.

M.L.B.: The Texas Rangers are one win away from their first
World Series title after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks, 11-7.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Courtney Bryan Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times

Dreaming: Courtney Bryan, an American pianist and composer,

recently received a MacArthur “genius” grant. But little of her
work, lauded for being eclectic and adventurous, is publicly
available. That’s about to change.

Her new work “DREAMING” premieres today, presented by the

International Contemporary Ensemble at New York City’s Merkin
Hall.

More on culture
Tyler Christopher, who played Nikolas Cassadine on the soap
opera “General Hospital” for two decades, died at 50.

Charlamagne Tha God guest-hosted “The Daily Show” and made

fun of Ron DeSantis’s heels.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Joseph De Leo for The New York Times.

Bake Claire Saffitz’s ultimate chocolate cake.

Organize your work space and keep clutter to a minimum.

Stock a guest room with these essentials.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was volatility.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and

Connections.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See
you tomorrow. — German

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themorning@nytimes.com.

German Lopez is a writer for The Morning, The Times’s flagship daily newsletter, where
he covers major world events and how they affect people. More about German Lopez

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