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September, 2009
Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
Table of contents
S.No Title Page no
1. Introduction and back ground…………………………………… 3
1.1 Introduction………………………………………………….. 3
1.2 Background…………………………………………………. 3
1.3 Description of the study area……………………………… 3
2. statement of the problem……………………………………….. 5
3. Objectives of the study…………………………………………. 5
3.1 General objective of the study ………………………….. 5
3.2 Specific objective of the study…………………………… 5
4. Literature review………………………………………………… 6
5. Methodology……………………………………………………… 6
5.1 Data source & collection process……………………….. 13
6. General procedure………………………………………………. 14
7. Significance of the study……………………………………….. 15
8. Expected output…………………………………………………. 15
9. Activity schedule………………………………………………… 16
10. Financial requirements………………………………………… 16
11. References……………………………………………………... 18
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
Fig. Location map of Blue Nile basin along with Border Project.
2.Statement of the problem
Ethiopia has a number of rivers flowing through highlands which provides greater
head for the development of hydropower.But,there is mismatching between power
supply and Power demand.so,it is good practice to analyse load forecasting such as
short term, intermediate & long term forecasting techniques.And, we have also some
problems on Peak, average & base loads.
3.objectives of the study
3.1 General objective of the study
-Analyze & improve load forecasting, energy demand & supply in Ethiopia.
3.2 Specific objective of the study
-To develop appropriate load forecasting and power demand allocation systems from
the load data & evaluating the applicability of the systems in Ethiopia.
-To improve forecasting systems for short, intermediate & long term loads.
-To identify variances that could impact the current forecast & the supply and
demand.
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
4. Literature review
Load forecasting, or demand forecasting, is the process of predicting the amount of
electricity demand across a region and/or a transmission network over a specified
period of time. Srinivasan and Lee (1995) classified load forecasting in terms of the
planning horizon’s duration: up to 1 day for short-term load forecasting(STLF), 1 day
to 1 year for medium-term load forecasting (MTLF), and 1-10 years for long-term
load forecasting (LTLF). To forecast load precisely throughout a year, different
seasonal factors that effect load differently in different seasons are considered.
A wide variety of models, varying in the complexity of functional form and
estimation procedures, has been proposed for the improvement of load forecasting
accuracy. Matthewman and Nicholson (1968) conducted an early survey of electric
load forecasting techniques. Abu El-Magd and Sinha (1982) , Bunn and Farmer
(1985), and Gross and Galiana (1987) also reviewed load demand modelling and
forecasting. Recently, Moghram and Rahman (1989) surveyed electric load
forecasting techniques. The first procedure of STLF using Box-Jenkins model is to
verify that the time series of the past hourly peak load is either stationary or non-
stationary. If the past hourly peak loads are non-stationary then it should be
transformed to a stationary time series. The time series of the past hourly peak load
is said to be stationary if the time series fluctuate with a constant variation around a
constant mean, μ. A neural network is a powerful data modeling tool that is able to
capture and represent complex input/output relationships. Neural networks resemble
the human brain in the following two ways:
i- A neural network acquires knowledge through learning.
ii- A neural network's knowledge is stored within inter-neuron connection strengths
known as synaptic weights.
Based on these models we will compare the predicted loads and select the
suitable model depending on the results.
5. Methodology
There are several methodologies employed in the process of load forecasting and
power demand estimation in hydropower projects. The more prevalent approaches
include econometric top-down modeling, system-wide customer segment
projections, and bottom up’ regional’ approaches. Econometric approach is used to
estimate future demand and electricity usage. This methodology provides a
consistent approach to load forecasting through the use of a combination of fitted
statistical models, historical data, third-party economic forecasts, and customer-
specific information. Methodologies of load forecasts can be divided into various
categories that include short-term forecasts, medium-term forecasts, and long-term
forecasts. Short-term forecasting which gives a forecast of electric load one hour
ahead of time. Such forecast can help to make decisions aimed at preventing
imbalance in the power generation and load demand, thus leading to greater network
reliability and power quality.
Analysis tools include:
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
Hour
Hourly load of the day
24Hour
Minimum temperature Artificial Neural Hour
Maximum temperature Network Model Forecasted load
Average temperature at hours
Humidity 24Hour
Wind speed
Day of the week
Season (month)
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
For a neuron either in the hidden or in the output layer, each received input yi is
transformed to its output yout by the mathematical transfer function
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
(∑ )
m
Y out = f wi y i + wo
i=1 =f (Ynet) is the neuron net input,
Where f( ) denotes the transfer function, wi are the input connection pathway
weights, m is the total number of inputs (which equals the number of neurons in the
preceding layer), and wo is the neuron threshold (or bias).
The non-linear transfer function adopted for the neurons of the hidden and output
layers is the widely used logistic/sigmoid function
( )
m
1
f ∑ w i y i +w o =
(∑ )
m
i =1 −σ wi y i +w o
i =1
1+ e
bounded in the range [0, 1]. The neuron weights wi, the threshold wo and ó can all
be interpreted as parameters of the network configuration
If ‘l’ is the total number of neurons in the input layer and ‘m’ is the total number of
neurons in the hidden layer, then the total number of weights to be estimated for the
ANN model is (l+1)m + (m+1). The Simplex method is used for automatic
optimization of the weights.
-Weather sensitive demand model: Weather conditions influence the load. In fact,
forecasted weather parameters are the most important factors in short-term load
forecasts. Temperature & humidity are the most commonly used load predictors.
The models that appeared to offer the most consistent and high quality regressions
were based on cooling degree hours (CDH, derived from temperature) and hourly
demand. To allow exploration of the impact of temperature on the daily load profile,
one regression was performed for each hourly time-slice (e.g.5 to 6pm) in each
month. This gave 24 regressions for each month, each of the form:
D=1+CDH (CDH) +
where D is the demand in each time-slice (1 am to 12 am), β1 is the intercept of the
regression line on the demand axis, βCDH is the slope of the regression line giving the
sensitivity of demand to cooling degree hours (in MW/CDH) and ε is the random
error. The use of cooling degree hours (or degree days) is relatively common in
demand modeling as it attempts to account for human comfort by defining a
threshold temperature above which air-conditioning is required and below which it is
not as such temperature changes that serve to raise the temperature beyond the
threshold will have the greatest impact on electricity demand.
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
∑ ( T h−T bh )
N
where N is the number of cooling degree hours in the period of interest and T is
the air temperature and Tb is the threshold temperature.
The relative sensitivity of demand to temperature level is consistent with the higher
temperatures during the working day requiring cooling of workplaces .
-Extrapolation model :The extrapolation of energy demand may be carried out using
a number of mathematical functions.
i. Linear extrapolation: yt=a+bt
ii. Parabola yt=a+bt+ct2
iii. Exponential yt=aebt
iv. First order autoregressive trend model: yt=a+by t-1
V.Logarithmic autoregressive trend model: logyt=a+blogy t-1
Where “a” & “b” are the parameters to be estimated.
In linear extrapolation, the variable to be forecasted yt is linearly plotted against
time (t) and the resulting plot is extrapolated in to reasonable future time spans. The
parameter ‘b’ gives the rate of change (slope) of the line, and dividing the rate of
change coefficient by the average value of yt gives an average (arithmetic) growth
rate per unit.
-AR Box-Jenkins model : it is used to perform the short-term load forecasting
(STLF) for the next 24 hours. The sample autocorrelation (SAC) function defined
as rk can be calculated by using equation
∑ ( z t − z )( z t + k− z )
n−b
r k=
t =b
n−k
∑( z −z )
t
t =b
n
∑ zt
b
z=
Where ( n−b+1 )
b : the beginning value of t. b = 1 when the stationary of past hourly peak loads is
used. If the first or second differences of the time series is used then b = 2 or b= 3,
respectively. This shows that the stationary of past hourly peak loads, first
differences and second differences begins with the time series of y1, z2 and
z3, respectively.k : lag time interval which is 1, 2,…., n-K.
K : used to specify the distance between two time intervals for k.
If the past hourly peak loads are stationary then the zt and z that used in equation
above are replaced by yt and y , respectively. The SAC or rk given in the equation is
used to measure linear relationship between the two time series separated by a lag
of k time unit. The results of rk should always be in the range between -1 and 1.
The first differences of the inherent time series is given by
z=y −y
t t t−1
where, y : hourly peak load.
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
z = y −2 y + y
t t t−1 t−2
r k , if k=1
k−1
r −∑ r r
k
j−1
k−1 , j k−1
r k=
1−∑ r k−1 , j j
, if k=2,3,--------,n-k-1
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
Start
Perform the
verify whether the time series is first difference
Stationery or non stationery non of the time
Stationery series
End
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
100
n A t −F t
MAPE= ∑ |
n t=1 At
|
Typical load
shape for each
Historical sales (mp-ID)
-Industrial & comm
-Residential
Forecast
sales growth
Analysis Forecast Analysis Analysis
by customer
Models segment
Historical demographic
& commodity data
Forecast
New large mp- ID
Industrial hourly load
load forecast shapes
bymmp- ID
Operations
provides Aggregate
transmission
losses
Note: MP_ID refers to metering points
Forecast
Project load
shapes
Fig .5 Load forecast methodology flow diagram (source, Future demand & energy
Outlook,2007-2027)
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
9.ACTIVITY SCHEDULE
Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
No
Activities weeks 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2 Literature review * * * *
4 Development of models * * * * *
5 Evaluation of models * * * *
Compiling and
9 * * *
submitting
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
A. STUDENT /RESEARCHER
1. Reconnaissance study Project Area 10 130 1300
2. Primary Data collection Project Area 15 130 1560
3. Secondary data collection Project Area 30 130 3900
and literature review & other
4. Visiting Hydropower projects under operation 10 130 1300
5. Technician (2) Project Area 15 58 1740
6. Driver cost Project Area 15 58 870
B. ADVISOR /CO-ADVISOR
Supervision of research activity
7 with in the project area Project Area 15 150 2250
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Developing & Evaluation of Load forecasting , power demand supply allocation systems in Ethiopia &
contribution of Blue Nile Basin (border dam)
11. REFERENCES
1. International journal of power, energy & artificial intelligence, march
2009
2. Hydropower & the worlds Future
3. Future demand & energy requirement (2006-2027)
4. Forecasting demand for electricity, some methodological issues & analysis.
5. World academy of science, engineering 7 technology.
6 . “Water Power Development”, by EMIL MOSONYI, Dr.Techn., Dr.Eng.,
Academia Kiado Publishing House of the Hungarian Academy of Science.
7. “Hydraulic Structures” P.Novak, A.I.B. Moffat, C.Nalluri, R.Narayanan
8.“Basic hydropower” Lecture note by Dr. Ing. SeleshiBekele
9. “Nile Basin Capacity Building Network for River Engineering (NBCBN-RE)”,
Executive summaries, research cluster report.
10.“Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project”, Phase 2
& 3, Section II, Sectral Studies, Sept. 1998
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