Uttarakhand Integrated and Resilient Urban Development Project (RRP IND 38272-044)

Climate Risk Assessment

Project Number: 38272-044

October 2021

India: Uttarakhand Integrated and Resilient Urban

Development Project
 ABBREVIATIONS

ADB - Asian Development Bank

CRA - climate risk assessment
lpcd - liters per capita per day
MLD - million liter per day
NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US)
O&M - operation and maintenance
RCP - representative concentration pathway
SCADA - supervisory control and data acquisition
SBR - sequencing batch reactor
STP - sewage treatment plant
UUSDA - Uttarakhand Urban Sector Development Agency
WSS - water supply and sanitation
 CONTENTS
Page
I. INTRODUCTION 1
A. Uttarakhand Integrated and Resilient Urban Development Project 2
B. Project Locations and Subproject Areas 4
C. Climate Risk Context 5
II. CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT 11
A. Baseline Climate 11
B. Seasonal Rainfall and Maximum Daily Rainfall 13
C. Climate Trends 15
D. Future Climate Projections 17
E. Rainfall 18
F. Temperature 19
G. Climate Risks 20
H. Project Risks 21
I. Dehradun THDC and Yamuna 22
J. Dehradun Raipur 23
K. Nainital 23
III. CLIMATE ADAPTATION 31
IV. CLIMATE FINANCE 33
REFERENCES 41

APPENDIX
1. CLIMATE DATA 42
 1

I. INTRODUCTION

1. This report provides a Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) for the proposed ‘India:
Uttarakhand Integrated and Resilient Urban Development Project’ that will enhance the quality of
water supply and sanitation services in Dehradun and Nainital whilst being resilient to regional
hazards including heatwaves, floods, and droughts. Uttarakhand is located in the central
Himalayas and is highly vulnerable to natural hazards and future climate change. Rates of
warming in the Himalayas are greater than the global average and the impacts of climate change
are anticipated earlier in this region than in other parts of India. These impacts include a decline
in snowfall and extent, more intense rainfall, landslides, floods, and droughts. The recent large
rock and ice landslide and associated floods in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, which killed dozens of
people and destroyed homes and hydropower infrastructure, highlighted the potential risks of ice
melt accelerated by warmer conditions.

2. The state of Uttarakhand is one of the fastest-growing states supported by manufacturing

industries and tourism. As hill agriculture became unstable and better opportunities for jobs and
education became increasingly concentrated in urban centers, urban migration from hill villages
has intensified rapid urbanization in Uttarakhand. Unplanned urbanization and the challenges to
mobilize human and financial resources has led to significant gaps in the provision of basic
infrastructure and services to growing urban areas. The lack of clean water supply and sanitation
(WSS) systems and services in particular poses a disproportionate burden on the poor, which is
estimated at around 15% of urban population. Also greatly affected are women who are key
players for household management and family health care, as they are forced to spend a lot of
time and efforts to fetch water and take care of family members sick from waterborne disease
and/or poor hygiene rather than participate in economic activities. Increased access to urban
water services will improve livelihoods and the capacity to cope with climate extremes; in addition,
improved water supply and sanitation is essential for protecting communities from waterborne
diseases and future pandemics.

3. The ADB Climate Risk Management Framework requires a CRA for all projects that are
screened as ‘medium’ or ‘high’ climate risk including an assessment of adaptation options and
monitoring and reporting of risks and proposed ‘climate proofing’ measures. The Project Concept
Paper (PCP) classifies the project at “medium” risk to future climate change and aims to tackle
community vulnerabilities to climate change through the provision of sustainable water supplies
and drainage systems. The scope of the CRA is to assess climate risks in project towns, identify
adaptation included in the project and further recommendations to improve climate resilience. It
also estimates the amount of project finances eligible as Climate Action. Climate change
information is collated for the whole of the state, but the risk assessment focuses on several sub-
projects, for which information is available. The CRA uses historical observed data and climate
reanalysis data to understand baseline risks as well as using climate models to assess the risks
of future climate change. It provides climate change scenarios (including associated uncertainties)
and assesses climate impacts on the proposed project activities.

4. The report is structured as follows:

(i) Section I provides a project description, the broad climate risk context and the
project’s intention to develop water supply and sewerage networks that reduce
community risk to climate change.
(ii) Section II provides a climate change risk assessment, including a description of
the current climate, recent trends and climate change scenarios for Dehradun and
Nainital based on the NASA NEX-GDDP climate change datasets and Uttarakhand
climate change strategy documents.
2

(iii) Section III provides an adaptation assessment that links the climate risks with
project activities and proposed adaptation measures that are included in the
concept design documents.
(iv) Section IV consists of a climate finance assessment, identifying the project costs
that can be attributed to climate adaptations

5. Further information and background material are provided in the Appendix:

(i) Appendix A includes further climate information for Dehradun and Nainital

A. Uttarakhand Integrated and Resilient Urban Development Project

6. The Uttarakhand Integrated and Resilient Urban Development Project aims to enhance
the reliability and efficiency of water supply and sanitation services in the cities of Dehradun
(western Uttarakhand) and Nainital (southeast Uttarakhand). The project aims to maintain a
reliable piped water supply to about 30,000 people, reduce Non-Revenue Water to less than 25%
in metered areas of Dehradun and provide improved sanitation for 62,000 people. Current water
supply systems are insufficient to supply the growing population and drainage systems are
inadequately sized to handle sewerage causing overflows and poor water quality. Some project
areas have no sanitation or sewerage services. There are 4 project outputs proposed for
Dehradun and Nainital, which are summarized in Figure I-1 and described below.
 3

Figure 1: An Overview of the Project Outputs

 4

B. Project Locations and Subproject Areas

7. Dehradun is the winter capital of Uttarakhand and the most populous city in Uttarakhand
experiencing unprecedent speed of urban sprawl. Between 2018 and 2011, Dehradun has
expanded to 300% in area (196.48 km2) and increased by 141% in population (803,983 in
2018). 1,2. Untreated wastewater and faecal sludge are directly disposed to Rispana, Bindal, and
Suswa rivers causing severe environmental and health risks. 3 This can be aggravated during
rainy season when wastewater is mixed with stormwater. Insufficient drainage systems and heavy
encroachment of human settlement on the riverbeds constrain these rivers from properly
performing their natural draining function.

8. Nainital, the judicial capital of Uttarakhand, is set in a valley of steep mountains around
Nainital Lake. Estimated population of Nainital in 2020 is about 60,000. Compared to the 2011
census data of 41,377, the urban population is increased by 50%. 4 As Nainital is a highly popular
hill station, 5 the average number of daily visitors to Nainital is around 72,650 with 90% staying
overnight. 6 Constantly increasing urban residents and a high-reaching floating population that is
120% higher than the residents has led to severe water stress. With the observed depletion of
ground water that has been a major drinking water source, and deterioration of surface water
quality, the water authority in Nainital has restricted the duration of water withdrawal from tube
wells. The service hours of tap water have been reduced 7 despite the sufficient water supply
infrastructure developed by ADB-financed project. The aging sewerage networks with leaks and
insufficient sewerage treatment capacity has caused water pollution making it difficult to tap into
surface water as an alternative drinking water source. Upgrading of the aging sewer networks
built around 1940 and the necessary expansion of sewerage treatment capacity in Nainital are
urgent tasks for the system sustainability of both WSS.

9. Sub-projects are in specific wards in Dehradun and Nainital, as outlined below:

(i) Improved Water Supply Systems (WSS) in Banjarawala, Mothrowala, New Basti
wards in Dehradun. Existing individual water supply systems will be upgraded and
integrated into one system with improved supervisory control and data acquisition
(SCADA) based automation.
(ii) Sewerage and stormwater drainage systems at Banjarawala, Mothrowala,
Kedarpur wards in Dehradun. Construction of a sewage treatment plan (STP) with
treatment capacity of 11 million liters per day (MLD), install 121.4 km of sewerage
network; and have over 7000 house service connections. It will also include the
improvement of existing roadside drains and construct 82.7 km new drains.

1 Census of India 2011. District census handbook-Dehradun.

2 Nagar Nigam Dehradun. About Nagar Nigam Dehradun. In 2018, redrawing the boundaries under the Delimitation
commission or Boundary commission of India was carried out in Dehradun.
3 Government of Uttarakhand. 2019. Action Plan for Rejuvenation of River Suswa. Dehradun; and National Institute of

Hydrology-Roorkee. 2019. Preparation of Strategic Land and Water Management Plan for Rejuvernation of Rispana
River System. Jal Vigyan Bhawan, Roorkee (Uttarakhand) – 247667 (draft report submitted to Irrigation Department
of Government of Uttarakhand).
4 Census of India 2011. District census handbook-Nainital.
5 The hill stations are high-altitude towns for recreation, enjoyment and used as a place of refuge to escape the blistering

heat in India during summertime, most of the hill stations in India were developed by the British.
6 UUSDA. 2020. Detailed Project Report in Nainital Sewerage System Improvement. Uttarakhand.
7 The Nainital administration restricted the water intake to 8–9 MLD only, compared to the water supply system

requirement of 20 MLD.
 5

(iii) Sewerage and stormwater drainage systems at Kargi, Yamuna colony and Patel
Nagar (east) in Dehradun. This sub-project will install 40.35 km sewerage network,
have 4,518 house connections, and install 39.1 km stormwater drain network.
(iv) Sewerage and storm water system in Raipur and other wards in Dehradun.
(v) Sewerage treatment plant and truck sewers in Nainital. This sub-project will
construct a STP with a treatment capacity of 18 Ml/d adjacent to existing STP at
Russi village, install new 2.1 km trunk and 2.2 outfall sewers, and have 600 house
connections.
(vi) SCADA-based automation system in Nainital. This will include (i) hydraulic
improvement & district meter area (DMA) formation, (ii) house service connection,
(iii) maintenance of old usable rising mains, and (iv) SCADA, instrumentation, and
automation at five pump houses: Sukhtal, Children Park, New water works, old
water works, and Phansi Gadhera pump houses.

C. Climate Risk Context

10. Uttarakhand is exposed to a wide range of hazards including drought, flash floods,
landslides, cloudbursts, and forest fires. Increases in deforestation and soil erosion in the
mountainous regions of Uttarakhand have increased surface runoff whilst reducing groundwater
recharge, which may contribute to flooding downstream in the plains. Deforestation and
glacial/snow/ice melt also increase the risk of landslides across the state. The Uttarakhand State
Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) described the state’s high risk to climate change.
Mountainous regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change and have shown above
average warming in the 20th century. Impacts are expected to range from reduced genetic
diversity of species to erratic rainfall as well as flash floods from glacial melt in the Himalayas
leading to increased flooding that will affect water resources within the next few decades. 8. The
SAPCC considered the adaptation actions required in 11 sectors including urban development
and water resources, highlighting the need for greater water metering and reduction in NRW,
monitoring of water quality, improved drainage systems and improved rainwater harvesting.

11. Climate risk is a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (susceptibility/capacity).

Table I-1 summarizes the exposure of each sub-project site according to broad scale data sets,
such as ‘Think Hazard’, a review of the sites using Google Earth, the State Disaster Management
Plan, and other sources. Global tools, such as Think Hazard classify risks at a provincial level
without reference to specific site details; therefore, the Think Hazard provincial classification has
been changed if there is better local information available. In general terms, both areas are
exposed to water scarcity and periods of drought but the higher elevation of Nainital means that
is has lower exposure to very high temperatures and greater exposure to landslide risks. The local
physical conditions and siting of infrastructure are the most important factors for climate exposure.

12. Table I-2 shows the climate sensitivity of project components to climate variables and
climate-related hazards, based on a review of the available literature and supporting project
documentation, as well as expert opinion. Water supply infrastructure is highly sensitive to the
water balance and seasonal availability of groundwater, springs, and river flows; both water
supply and sewerage systems can be impacted heavily by floods or landslides, which can damage
treatment plants or pipe networks and biological and chemical processes are influenced by
temperature. Table I-3 combines sensitivity score with exposure to describe the relative climate
risk of each project component. In general terms, the sites and project components are most

8 Uttarakhand State Action Plan on Climate Change (2014)

6

vulnerable to (i) water scarcity and drought (ii) landslides where piped networks traverse steeper
terrain (iii) flood risk, particularly close to the rivers in Dehradun and (iv) extreme heat, again in
the lower elevation locations. This risk assessment in Section II focuses on these climate impacts
and provides further details on potential project risks.

13. In this context, the project feasibility studies, and project implementation plans can
consider the impacts of climate change through a range of climate adaptation measures related
to the choice of site locations for treatment works and careful routing of piped networks, the
adoption of appropriate design standards or design guidelines, implementation of operational
guidelines and monitoring of climate risks. The level of adaptation included in the project and
recommendations for further measures are discussed in Section III Adaptation Assessment.

Table I-1 – Climate exposure of Dehradun and Nainital

Dehradun
Context Dehradun is located at the foothills of the
Doon valley; it lies on both flat and hilly
terrain. Two large rivers to the East (Asan)
and West (Song) and two smaller rivers, the
Bindal and the Rispana run through
Dehradun.
The rivers have poor water quality.
There is little greenspace within the city but
larger areas of trees in the surroundings.
Google
Earth
Nainital
Nainital is located in a mountainous, hilly
region. It lies at an altitude of 2084m and is
situated next to Nainital Lake.
Surrounded by mountains covered in large
swaths of trees, some hillsides are bare, with
small shrubs.
Limited groundwater availability due to
poorer aquifers in mountainous regions and
a high water demand

Water High High

scarcity
Extreme High Medium-High
Heat
Tropical Very low Very low
Cyclones
River Medium Low
Flood
Urban Medium Medium
Flood
Landslide Medium High
 7

Sources: PREP (https://www.prepdata.org/explore), ThinkHazard, Google Earth, IMD (2020), Uttarakhand SAPCC
(2014).
Note: A detailed assessment of the project wards in Dehradun using Google Earth and topographic data indicates that
all project wards are located in areas of flat and relatively lower-lying topography. This puts them at higher risk of
surface water flooding especially those which have either the Bindal River and or Rispana River flowing through or
along the ward boundary. The wards at higher risk of flooding are Banjarawala, Mothrowala, Ladpur, Harrawala and
Nethrugram, with significant flooding in these wards observed as recent as August 2020. There are also areas of
steeper, higher topography to the south of Dehradun that may impact surface water runoff into the wards exacerbating
flooding, specifically in Banjarawala, Mothrowala and Harrawala.

Table I-2 - Climate Sensitivity of Water Supply, Stormwater and Sewerage Project Components 9
Component River catchment
flooding**
Raw water Water quality deterioration
intake Associated operational
equipment failure
Intake system flooded
Bank erosion and scour at
intake
Water Flooding of essential unit
treatment process
plant Process performance
adversely affected by poor
raw water quality*
Clean water Potential pollution
reservoir reducing water quality*
Distribution Pumping stations flooded
Network Flooded taps and float
valves allow
contamination
Potential flood damage to
pipes at river crossings
Usage Increased demand for
emergency supplies
Stormwater Outfall invert levels may
drains be affected by high river
flows or lake water levels
9 Adapted from WHO, Guidance on water supply and sanitation in extreme weather events, 2011; additional information added from Uttarakhand SAPCC, 2014
Extreme rainfall event
(Flooding)
High sediment and nutrient
runoff into rivers reducing
water quality*
Potential contamination of
local surface waters*
Abstraction system adversely
affected
Local flooding causes short
term water treatment plant
failure or failure of electricity
systems
Lower quality water due to
increase pollutants from
runoff*
Associated operational
problems resulting from local
flooding
Physiochemical and bio-
systems both affected by
influent quality variation
Landslide risk for piped
network
Potential impact on local
usage patterns
Heavy rainfall may exceed
the drainage design
High sediment loads may
block drains
8
Sensitivity
High temperatures Drought Storm and high
winds
Raw water Reduced water Operational failure
temperature rises availability ** due to storm damage
results in low Reduced quality of
Dissolved Oxygen surface water sources
(DO) available
Water quality more Reduced water levels at
likely to be affected by abstraction point
upstream STW effluent adversely affect
abstraction rate
Lower DO adversely Influent deterioration Operational failure
affects bio-water causes product quality due to storm damage
treatment systems reduction
Associated operational Reduced throughput
equipment failure affects performance
~ Lower quality water due Operational failure
to reduced dilution of due to storm damage
pollutants
Operational problems Pressure reductions Operational failure
resulting from increase infiltration risk due to storm damage
temperature effects Quality reduction from
Increased water low flow long residence
temperatures time in mains
adversely affect bio-
water treatment
Potential increase in Increase in demand for Impact on local
demand public water supply and usage patterns
agriculture
~ Dry periods may Potential damage to
contribute to sediment telecommunications
accumulation systems
 9

Sensitivity
Component River catchment Extreme rainfall event High temperatures Drought Storm and high
flooding** (Flooding) winds
Lack of flushing by
storms could lead to
blockages
Sewerage As above, with potential Increase in combined sewer High temperatures ~ ~
system for sewer flooding overflows (CSOs) may affect odour
Landslide risk for piped
network
Sewerage Flood damage inc. Surface water flooding on High temperatures Lower flows in receiving Operational failure
treatment essential unit processes site may affect biological waters impact on water due to storm damage
plants an electrical system. treatment processes quality and may
Water pollution, and odour influence discharge
contamination of flood consents
water
Access Potential flood damage Potential flooding Impacts on asphalt ~ ~
Roads Erosion and scour at Landslide risks
culverts
Notes: Discussed in feasibility studies - Changing glacial and snowmelt as well reduced groundwater recharge is particularly relevant for Uttarakhand
10

Table I- Table I-3 - Climate risk assessment based on sensitivity x exposure for (a)
Dehradun and (b) Nainital

(a) Dehradun
Project Drought/Water Extreme Heat Cyclones River Urban Landslides
Components scarcity /storms flood flood
Raw water HXH LXH L X VL HXM LXM LXM
intake
Water HXH MXH M X VL HXM MXM MXM
treatment
plant
Clean water MXH LXH M X VL LXM LXM MXM
reservoir
Distribution MXH LXH L X VL HXM MXM HXM
Network
Usage HXH HXH M X VL MXM LXM LXM
Stormwater LXH LXH L X VL MXM HXM MXM
drains
Sewerage LXH MXH L X VL MXM MXM MXM
network
Sewerage MXH MXH M X VL HXM MXM LXM
treatment
plants
Access LXH LXH M X VL HXM MXM HXM
Roads

(b) Nainital
Project Drought/Water Extreme Heat Cyclones River Urban Landslides
Components scarcity /storms flood flood
Raw water HXH LXM L X VL HXL LXM LXH
intake
Water HXH MXM M X VL HXL MXM MXH
treatment
plant
Clean water MXH LXM M X VL LXL LXM MXH
reservoir
Distribution MXH LXM L X VL HXL MXM HXH
Network
Usage HXH HXM M X VL MXL LXM LXH
Stormwater LXH LXM L X VL MXL HXM MXH
drains
Sewerage LXH MXM L X VL MXL MXM MXH
network
Sewerage MXH MXM M X VL HXL MXM LXH
treatment
plants
Access LXH LXM M X VL HXL MXM HXH
Roads
 11

II. CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT

A. Baseline Climate

14. The climatic conditions of Uttarakhand vary greatly due to variations in altitude and
proximity towards the Himalayas. Average temperatures based on records between 1990-2014
are primarily related to elevation, with the highest temperatures in the plains and low mountains
and relatively warmer conditions in the valleys (Figure II-1). The average precipitation in the state
based on records between 1990-2014 varies from 920 mm, in Srinagar, to 2500 mm in Nainital.
However, spatial distribution of the precipitation varies, depending upon the geographical location
and slope and aspect. The amount of precipitation is generally high in low mountainous regions
such as Nainital and Dehradun and it gradually decreases with increasing height. About three
quarters of the total rainfall is confined to the monsoon season and the remaining quarter occurs
in other seasons due to the western disturbances and local orographic effects

Figure II-1 – Average temperatures across the State of Uttarakhand

Dehradun

Nainital

Source: State Action Plan on Climate Change. 2014.

15. Dehradun is located within the Doon valley, a montane region within the sub-Himalayan
physiographic zone. It has an altitude of 640 m. Dehradun has an average maximum temperature
of 31.6°C and an average minimum of 10.7°C. It receives on average 2091mm of rainfall per year.
Nainital is located within the hilly region at an altitude of 2084m and as such experience’s cooler
temperatures and higher rainfall. The average temperature reaches 30°C in May and 7.2°C
degrees in January (based on whole district data). It receives on average 2507mm of rainfall per
year. Both towns receive most of their annual rainfall from the southwest monsoon in July to
12

September (JJAS) months with the observed data indicating more than 80% of annual rainfall for
the towns is contributed during JJAS. The highest temperatures are observed in May to June in
the pre-monsoon months. Baseline climate data for Dehradun and Nainital is summarized in
Figures II-2 and II-3.

Figure II-2 – Observed Baseline Precipitation and Temperature for Dehradun and Nainital

Source: KNMI Climate Explorer – Dehradun observed station data; CatchX for Nainital with variables estimated from
global reanalysis data sets

Figure II-3 - Modelled Mean Runoff (Mm/Month) (Blue Line) Evaporation (Light Blue Line)
and Rainfall (Bars) for Dehradun and Nainital

Dehradun Nainital

Source: Catch X10

Source: CatchX for Dehradun and Nainital.

10 These water balance estimates provided for Dehradun and Nainital from the Catch X tool are averages for large
catchment areas. Local data are required for engineering design purposes.
 13

Figure II-4 - Modelled Runoff Time Series for Dehradun (Top) and Nainital (Bottom)

Source: CatchX for Dehradun and Nainital.

B. Seasonal Rainfall and Maximum Daily Rainfall

16. The concentration of rainfall in the Southwest monsoon period (JJAS) means that both
areas have long periods with low rainfall and therefore rely on groundwater and glacial meltwater
for much of the year. Rainfall can be very heavy during the monsoon and enhanced by the
mountainous environment; based on the available data and extreme value analysis of maximum
daily rainfall is shown in Figure II-4. The daily maxima are high, particularly in Nainital with 1 in
50-year rainfall depths of greater than 400 mm. Combined with steep topography, the area will be
vulnerable to both flash floods and rainfall-triggered landslides.
14

Figure II-5 - Seasonal Precipitation for Dehradun and Nainital.

Sources: KNMI climate explorer, observed station data for Dehradun (1901-2020) and Nainital (1953-1970).

Figure II-6 - Extreme Value Analysis for Baseline Precipitation for Dehradun And Nainital
(Uncertainty Bands As Dashed Lines)

Source: KNMI climate explorer, observed station data for Dehradun (1901-2020) and Nainital (1953-1970).
 15

Table II-1 - Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) Return Periods Calculated Using Gumbel
Distribution Method
Return period Dehradun Nainital (mm/day)
(mm/day)
2
152 186
5
196 260
10
226 309
25
263 371
50
291 417
100
319 462

C. Climate Trends

17. Rates of warming in Uttarakhand are generally greater than the global average. Climate
model reanalysis data for Dehradun shows that almost every year since 2004 has been warmer
than the 1981-2010 average. The warmest years have been 2010 and 2016 that were both 1
degree warmer than the baseline period. The region is likely to have already exceeded 1.5
degrees above late pre-industrial temperatures (1891-1900) and be facing related temperature
impacts of an increase in tropical conditions and higher rates of snow and ice melt. Trends in
precipitation are not evident and the time series is characterized by high year to year variability
with very high precipitation in 2010 and several years in the record showing very low or high
precipitation (-/+40%).

Figure II-7 – “Climate Stripes” for Dehradun Showing Increased Warming Between 1979
and 2019 Based on Climate Model Reanalysis

Notes: Derived from ERA 5 data and the Copernicus Climate Service. Warming stripes provide an at-a-glance view of
yearly temperature trends in 30.00°N, 78.00°E for the period 1979-2019. The colour of each stripe represents the
temperature anomaly for a given year, or how much warmer (red) or colder (blue) that year was relative to the long-
term reference period of 1981-2010.
16

Figure II-8 – Annual Precipitation Anomalies Between 1979 and 2019 Based on Climate
Model Reanalysis

Notes: Derived from ERA 5 data and the Copernicus Climate Service. Annual precipitation anomaly for 30.00°N,
78.00°E (1979-2019)
 17

D. Future Climate Projections

18. This section develops future climate projections based on analysis of statistically
downscaled climate projections from the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA). Figure II-5 summarizes rates of warming and estimated increase in heavy daily rainfall
for 26 climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5
for the mid-century and end of century. The headlines below are based on 10th and 90th
percentiles of the 26 models (after removing several outliers), but changes could be higher or
lower than stated. It is notable that the rates of warming are higher than the global average, which
aligns with the observed trends:
(i) Mid-century headlines
(a) Under scenario RCP4.5 temperature rises are 1.4 to 2.8 degrees, with a 0%
to 22% increase in heavy daily rainfall.
(b) Under scenario RCP8.5 temperature rises are 1.8 to 3.5 degrees with a
change in heavy daily rainfall from 2% to 28%.
(ii) End of century headlines
(a) Under scenario RCP4.5, temperature rises are 2.0. to 3.6 degrees with a -2%
to +31 % increase in heavy daily rainfall.
(b) Under scenario RCP8.5, temperature rises are 3.2 to 6.3 degrees with 7% to
43% increase in heavy daily rainfall.

Figure II-9 - NASA Statistically Downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5

Projections of Changes In Maximum Rainfall and Average Temperatures For The Mid-
Term (2050s) and Long Term (2080s) Future Under RCP4.5 And RCP8.5 Scenarios.

Source: NASA. 2021.

18

Table II- 1 - Summary Statistics of the NASA Statistically Downscaled Projections in

Maximum Rainfall and Average Temperatures for the Mid-Term and Long-Term Future
under RCP4.5 And 8.5
Change in Temperature rise oC Change in Temperature rise oC
heavy heavy
rainfall % rainfall %

RCP4.5 Mid-century (2036 – 2065) RCP4.5 End of century (2066-2095)

Average 10% 1.99 15% 2.61
p90 22% 2.76 31% 3.57

p50 8% 1.93 13% 2.48

p10 0% 1.39 -2% 1.96

RCP8.5 Mid-century (2036 – 2065) RCP8.5 End of century (2066-2095)

Average 16% 2.60 25% 4.71

p90 28% 3.52 43% 6.30

p50 17% 2.55 26% 4.37

p10 2% 1.83 7% 3.24

Source: NASA. 2021

E. Rainfall

19. Average monthly change factors from the NASA NEX-GDDP projections were applied to
the baseline rainfall data from Dehradun and Nainital to investigate how future rainfall is likely to
change (Figure II-6 and Figure II-7). The future climate projections suggest that precipitation for
the rainy season months, June through to September, is likely to increase significantly. Figures
II-10 and II-11 indicate the 90th percentile of monthly rainfall in August for Dehradun could be
above 1200mm and above 1400mm in Nainital in July by 2066-2095 under RCP8.5. Monthly
change factors applied to the baseline can be found in Appendix A.
 19

Figure II-10 - Uplifted Observed Rainfall for Dehradun for 2066-2095 under (a) RCP4.5 and
(b) RCP8.5
(a) (b)

Source: NASA.2021.
Figure II-11 - Uplifted observed rainfall for Nainital for 2066-2095 under (a) RCP4.5 and (b)
RCP8.5
(a) (b)

Source: NASA. 2021

F. Temperature

20. Figure II-12 plots future average temperatures according to the climate models; the full
data set is included in Appendix A. The winter and pre-monsoon seasons are projected to have
the greatest increases in temperature with a median warming of over 5 degrees projected for
January and March and May 2066-2095 under RCP8.5.
20

Figure II-12 - Monthly absolute temperature for 2066-2095 under (a) RCP4.5 and
(b) RCP8.5

(a)

Source: NASA. 2021

(b)

Source: NASA. 2021

G. Climate Risks

21. The Uttarakhand State Disaster Management Plan describes the state’s risks to severe
landslides as well as flash floods, drought, and dam bursts. According to the plan:
(i) Deforestation, dams and reservoirs and water intensive agriculture practices on
steep slopes have increased the frequency and intensity of landslides. Dehradun
and Nainital are both considered at moderate risk of landslides.
(ii) Deforestation has increased the severity of floods during the rainy season (JJAS)
whilst reducing stream flows and dried up springs in the dry season. Soil erosion
has reduced the carrying capacity of rivers causing floods downstream in the
plains.
 21

(iii) Excessive groundwater use and deforestation have contributed to drought as well
as changing climates altering rainfall patterns.
(iv) Other hazards include cloudbursts and flash floods caused by intense heavy
rainfall over a short period exceeding drainage capacities and causing damaging
floods.

22. The Uttarakhand SAPCC highlighted the high variability and increasing uncertainty in
rainfall patterns, characterized by severe droughts in 2007/08 and 2008/09 and excess
monsoonal rainfall in 2010, which triggered landslides, flash floods and river flooding. In addition,
it identified reductions in snow cover and its implications for water resources, which may include
reductions in seasonal river flows and groundwater recharge.

H. Project Risks

23. The climate risk assessment in Section I highlighted risks related to heavy rainfall, floods,
landslides (particularly Nainital), water scarcity and drought and extreme temperatures
(Dehradun). A summary of the main risks is provided in Table II-3 with a risk rating based on the
information available on the designs at the feasibility stage. This section includes a supporting
narrative with a specific focus on sub-project descriptions provided in the engineering studies.
Adaptation options and residual risks are discussed further in Section III.

Table II- 2 - Summary of The Main Project Risks

Project risk Description Change in Risk to
risk with PDO
the
project
Increase in heavy Rainfall depths are likely to increase by around Reduced Low
rainfall on stormwater 16% (2-28%) under RCP8.5 by the 2050s.The
systems (exceeding system is designed for current rainfall according
drainage capacity and to design manuals from Ministry Urban
causing local flooding) Development, GOI, without climate change
allowances. The GOI manual promotes the use
of Best Management Practices (BMPs), such as
Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) rather
than upsizing drains.
Without upsizing, the drainage capacity is likely
to be exceeded almost every year by 2050s,
however the proposed recharge pits will be
beneficial for water resources (below). Since
the “without project” situation is no drainage or
completely inadequate drainage, the project will
still reduce risks considerably.
Increase in rainfall on Heavy rainfall on steep mountain slopes may n/a Low
landslide risks and trigger shallow landslides or rockfalls, which
impacts on pipe could damage underground pipe networks in
networks areas of difficult terrain. Adequate burial depth
and careful routing should avoid landslide risks.
Increase in flood flow Heavier rainfall, combined with more rapid Increased Medium
and levels on riverside snowmelt is very likely to increase peak river (due to
STP infrastructure flows, increasing flood risk for infrastructure proposed
immediately adjacent to main rivers and the location of
likelihood of erosion and scour at stormwater the 2 larger
outfalls. The final risk rating is dependent on the STPs)
22

Project risk Description Change in Risk to

risk with PDO
the
project
placement of STPs and their protection from
flooding.
Increase in ice-melt Higher temperatures may increase the rate of n/a Medium
and associated flood ice melt, which could contribute to rock falls in
risks rivers upstream of Dehradun, like the recent
flood event in Chamoli. The project sites are
downstream of the mountainous areas with
greatest risk, however, increases in flood level
should be considered.
Increase in the A greater year to year variability in precipitation Reduced Low
frequency of water and snowmelt, alongside high seasonal
resources droughts demands and aged infrastructure is likely to
increase drought risk.
Improved water systems will reduce leakage
and promote more efficient water use.
Higher temperatures High temperatures are likely to increase the Reduced Low
and an increase in peak demand for water in April, May, June and
heatwaves with impact July. A new water storage tank in Dehradun will
on water demand contribute to managing the daily demand
profile.
Notes: PDO Project Development Objective

I. Dehradun THDC and Yamuna

24. Dehradun THDC and Yamuna stormwater systems A total of 35 km drains will be
constructed alongside the roads in THDC area to facilitate smooth draining of storm water from
the roads. These drains will be on both sides of the roads. The drainage design has taken into
account a storm frequency of once in 2 years and the ease of cleaning and maintenance. Around
12 km of reinforced concrete cement (RCC) drains and 23 km brick drains with the range between
250 mm x 250 mm and 800 mm x 800 mm in drain size will be installed. In order to reduce velocity
and prevent erosion, drain outfall structures will be constructed at the end of storm water drains
that discharge to major drains and river. A total of 38 such outfalls have been proposed in the
subproject area, out of which 5 are located on the bank of Bindal river whereas 19 on Ganda
water stream (nala), 10 on Kargi nala and remaining 4 on Northwest nala are proposed. These
nalas are ultimately flowing into the Bindal river. Stormwater management will be greatly improved
by this sub-project and the main climate risks are related to heavy rainfall exceeding the design
and the robustness of the outfall structures.

25. Dehradun THDC and Yamuna sewerage systems. The subproject will install a total of
around 25 km sewer pipes, of which 24 km will be high-density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe with
diameter ranging from 225 to 355mm and 1 km will be DI-K7 pipe of diameter 350 mm. The
wastewater collection system will mainly rely on gravity pipes and will discharge into the existing
manholes of existing trunk sewer. The network will be of the conventional gravity collection type,
starting from service connections to gravity sewers conveying the sewage to discharge into the
existing trunk sewer, which is ultimately connected to the existing Kargi STP with treatment
capacity of 68 MLD. The sewer system will be designed as a separate system that carries only
the domestic/municipal wastewater and will not mix with storm water drainage systems. No
industrial wastewater will be allowed into the sewers. Sewers will be laid underground in the roads
and streets. While water pipes are/will be located on one or either side of the roads, the sewers
 23

will be laid in the middle of the road to avoid any disruption of water pipes. In the areas of water
body crossings, the sewers will be laid by trenchless method. The risks of climate change on this
sub-project is low, as a separate sewerage network is proposed with no direct exposure to heavy
rainfall or landslide risks; any river crossings will need to be at a sufficient depth to avoid erosion
and scour.

J. Dehradun Raipur

26. Dehradun Raipur sanitation and drainage system. The sub-project is located in Zone
8 which currently has no sewerage system in place. The sub-project includes the installation of
Nakraunda STP with 16 MLD capacity and ability to co-treat additional 40 KLD of septage,
installation of 110km of sewer pipes and 10,000 sewer household connections as well as 15km
of stormwater drainage. The facility will treat sewage using sequencing batch reactor (SBR) and
resulting sludge will either be sent to landfill or be used as fertiliser. Treated effluent from the STP
will be re-used for non-domestic purposes on-site and will be stored in a tank by gravity. Around
0.1545 MLD of treated effluent will be used to flush 103 manholes per day to remove debris and
sediment accumulations. The re-use of water will have benefits on the overall supply-demand
balance. The main climate risks are for flooding at Nakraunda STP (see below).

27. Dehradun Raipur sewer network. The network will consist of 110km of sewer pipes
including 98km of HDPE pipe diameters from 225 to 355mm and 12km of DI-K7 pipe of diameter
varying between 350mm to 1000mm. The system will rely on gravity and will not mix sewerage
with stormwater drains. As previously stated, this type of network is relatively low risk from climate
change.
28. Dehradun Raipur stormwater drainage. This sub-project includes 15km of new kerb
channel drains will be constructed along roads to facilitate the drainage of stormwater into drains
during heavy rainfall. The drainage outfalls will be situated at the nearest nala. The drains will be
as per IS: 5758-1984, which is the Indian Standards on Specification for precast concrete kerbs,
channels, edgings, quadrants, and gutter aprons. Type B channels in IS:5758-1984 will be
constructed on minor roads having width less than 3m to transfer storm runoff into main drains.
As previously stated for stormwater systems, the primary risk is an increase in the magnitude and
frequency of heavy rainfall, which may mean the drains do not meet the design 1 in 2-year
standard.

K. Nainital

29. Nainital sewage system. For Nainital sewage treatment sub-project, the proposed STP
location is near Russi village where the old STPs (2 x 5 MLD) already exists. There is no need for
a terminal sewage pumping station for the STP due to the huge level difference (300 m difference
between Russi village and town), the raw sewage will be received by gravity through a trunk
sewer. The existing STPs were constructed at two levels, and it is planned to demolish the plant
units (sedimentation tanks) at the lower level and to construct the new STP on that part and
adjoining land. Connecting the town and surrounding areas to the works will be achieved by using
800 mm ductile iron (trunk sewer) and 800 mm mild steel for connections into the trunk sewer.
The landscape is very steep, with clear evidence of past landslides and therefore the primary risk
for the works and pipe network is landslides. The works will be located at the lower level of the
current treatment works where an existing settlement tank will be removed. The sewer network
connecting the town to the STP will start on level ground around Naini Lake and then follow the
road across more difficult terrain to Hanuman Garhi and then drop steeply (50-60% slope in
places) to the works near Russi village.
24

1. Increase in heavy rainfall on stormwater systems (exceeding drainage

capacity and causing local flooding)

30. Stormwater drainage design: The proposed storm water drainage systems are separate
systems which shall be designed based as per CPHEEO Manual. 11 Ministry Urban Development,
Government of India. According to the national consultants: “As the project area is primarily urban
area comprising residential areas, a storm frequency of once in 2 years shall be considered for
the design. Taking ease of cleaning and maintenance into consideration, 250 mm x 250 mm shall
be considered as the minimum drain size for design. RCC drains as well as Brick drains shall be
proposed. For storm water drains up to 800mm depth brick masonry drains are proposed and for
depth more than 800mm depth RCC drains are proposed. Minimum freeboard depends on size
of the drain shall be as per IRC SP: 50. The minimum design velocity shall be considered to 0.6
m/s to avoid siltation and the maximum design velocity limited to 3.0 m/s to avoid erosion/
scouring. The primary and secondary channels shall be designed for a storm frequency of once
in 5 years. Outfall structures shall be constructed at the end of storm water drains that discharge
to nallah/river and major water body to reduce the velocity and prevent erosion. Silt trap and trash
screen shall be proposed at outfall structure to prevent floating matters and silt discharging to
rivers/water body. It shall be ensured that outfall structure invert level shall be above “high flood
level” (HFL) of the receiving water body. Rainwater harvesting structures for ground water
recharge shall be proposed along secondary drains for recharge of ground water. Major drains
having width of drain more than 1 m width shall be fenced to prevent dumping of solid waste into
drains and for safety purpose. All the roadside drains shall be covered with precast RCC covers”.

31. Stormwater systems | Heavy rainfall. The 1 in 2-year rainfall in Dehradun is high, at
around 150 mm in one day, so these drains will remove a large volume of water that would
otherwise cause flooding; the 100-year rainfall is just over 300 mm and therefore the drains may
remove around half the floodwater in larger events. Any secondary channels will be designed for
1 in 5-year rainfall. Photographs of the existing situation show significant waste disposal in
channels, which will need to kept clear of debris and blockage to convey additional stormwater;
fencing is proposed to prevent solid waste dumping in drainage channels. Climate change is very
likely to increase the volume of heavy rainfall events by around 16% (2% and 28%) under the
RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2050s. The drainage capacity is designed using standard design
methods but do not include an allowance for climate change. The GOI design manuals do not
promote the use of climate change allowances to upsize channels and instead focus on the use
of Best Management Practices (BMPs) such as Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS).
The project does include some recharge pits but is primarily a standard traditional drainage
system.

32. Dehradun Banjarawala stormwater drainage system | Heavy Rainfall and River
Levels. For this sub-project, 7km of stormwater drains will be constructed alongside roads to
convey surface water from roads during the rainy season. The drains will discharge stormwater
through 6 outfalls to the Bindal River, the nearest water body. As outlined for other stormwater
drainage systems in Dehradun the primary climate risk relates to an increase in heavy rainfall
magnitude and frequency. In addition, for this system, which discharges into the Bindal River,
outfall invert levels will be designed to ensure that they are above the High Flow Level (HFL) of
the Bindal River. Future river levels are likely to be higher than previously observed, so where

11 Governmentof India. Central Public Health & Environmental Engineering Organisation (CPHEEO). 1999. Manual
on Water Supply and Treatment.
 25

possible, invert levels should be raised to HFL plus a suitable freeboard to make an allowance for
higher river levels.

2. Increase in rainfall on landslide risks and impacts on pipe networks

33. Nainital sewage system | landslide risks. An increase in monsoon rains by the mid-
century alongside increases in maximum daily rainfall is very likely to increase the risks of shallow
landslides on the steep slopes around Hanuman Garhi and Russi village. Any works to construct
trenches will need to avoid removal of trees and undercutting hillslopes in a way that would affect
stability. With suitable routing and construction methods the risks of landslides can be managed
but can’t be ruled out. Contingency plans should be in place to manage repairs to the network in
the event of landslides occurring.

Figure II-13 – Site of Nainital 18 MLD STP at Lower Level of Existing 10 MLD STP Site

Source: UUSDA. 2021

3. Increase in flood flow and levels on riverside STP infrastructure

34. Dehradun Banjarawala sewerage systems. The sub-project area currently has no
sewerage system provided. The sub-project will install a new sewage treatment plant at
Daudwala, in Mothrowala ward to a treatment capacity of 11 MLD. The sub-project included 11km
of sewer pipes including 10km of HDPE pipes of diameter 225mm and 1km of DI-K7 pipes of
diameter 700mm. The sewer network will rely on conventional gravity collection type to convey
sewage to the wet well at the Terminal Sewage Pumping Station (TSPS). The sewers will only
carry domestic/municipal wastewater and pipes will be laid underground in the roads. In the areas
of water body crossing, main road crossings or deep cuttings (greater than 6-7 m depth), the
sewers (around 1 km) will be laid by trenchless method. 900 sewer connections will be installed,
including 650 connected to the sewer system and 250 connected to community septic tanks. Low-
lying or low-density areas will be serviced by a Faecal Sludge and Septage Management (FSSM)
system. The location of septic tanks part of the FSSM will be determined by local topography.
The climate risks to this sub-project are primarily related to the location of main new sewage
treatment plant and appropriate location for septic tanks for local systems.

35. Daudwala/New Basti STP | Flood risk. The originally proposed location of the Daudwala
STP is located 15 m from the current path of the Bindal River and was at high flood risk. However,
an alternative site was secured at New Basti, which is set back around 63 m from the river with
26

the STP equipment in a better location for flood risk as shown in Figure II-14. The STP will
discharge treated effluent into the Bindal, a significant watercourse that flows through Dehradun.
An increase in monsoon rains by the mid-century alongside increases in maximum daily rainfall
is very likely to increase the risks of fluvial flooding caused by the Bindal. Historic Google Earth
imagery indicates the Bindal River is very mobile with the proposed location of the STP on the
edge of formally active functional floodplain. The STP cannot be set back further due to noise and
odor concerns of residents and therefore the detailed design must provide adequate flood
protection as well as diversion of a smaller river channel around the site.

Figure II-14 – (a) Location of the New Basti STP and Historic Imagery of the Same Site
Area
(a) Proposed STP location and current satellite imagery
27
28

(b) Preliminary Design and Drawing

Source: UUSDA.2021. A Detailed Project Report in Banjarawala

 29

36. Nakraunda STP | Flood risk. Similar to the originally proposed location of Daudwala STP,
the Nakraunda STP is located close to a river channel, that has been fairly mobile in the last 10
years. The design for the STP includes the proposal to channelise the nala by 300m and to widen
it to 12m around the STP location. The channel will require strengthening on the right bank to
train the river along the desired course and avoid bank erosion and flooding of the STP during
seasonal flood events. The land on left bank will be the remaining functioning floodplain and,
subject to the topography 12, could be used to provide some compensation flood storage to mitigate
the downstream risks of increasing flood levels. The channelisation could marginally reduce flood
risk for properties on the left bank that have already encroached the floodplain. The STP will
include an electrical sub-station and other sensitive infrastructure and electrical components that
should be protected by setting out above flood levels or providing flood resilience measures within
the STP. The box culvert and bridge should be set well above flood levels to always allow access
to the site. The location is bordered by forest to the south, so there is no opportunity to set back
further unless the trees are cleared, which is not desirable.

Figure II-15 - Location of Nakraunda STP, Historical River Movements and Proposed
Layout
Site location on 08/05/2020 Site location on 10/05/2010

(a) Retain this area free from development for flood storage
(b) Provide strengthened bank to protect from flooding and erosion
(c) Ensure site or sensitive components are raised above flood levels and/or retaining walls, flood gates are
used

12Google Earth elevation model suggests that the STP location is higher than the area on left bank including the urban
area, but detailed site confirmation is needed.
30

(a)

(b)

(c)

Source: UUSDA.2020. A Detailed Project Report

4. Increase in the frequency of water resources droughts

37. Dehradun Banjarawala water supply systems. The existing water supply system is
over 25 years old and can only supply 110 lpcd for 4-6 hours per day. The subproject includes a
new tube well installation and construction of a 1000 k litre overhead service tank in Nai Basti,
28km of DI-K7 pipes with 950 customer water connections along the pipe network. In general
terms water supply systems are affected by changes in seasonal rainfall and overall water
balance, the impacts of increases in temperatures on water demand and the impacts of flooding
on exposed water supply infrastructure.

38. Water supply systems | drought. During drought conditions, existing water supplies may
be less reliable and at the same time, water demand will increase. To mitigate against drought
conditions, the system incorporates groundwater recharge pits (GWRP) and rainwater harvesting
(RWH) throughout the project area to capture and store stormwater as well as allowing
groundwater sources to be recharged within the area. GWRPs will be constructed along primary
and secondary existing natural drainage channels and RWH will be located in Government
offices/ schools, parks and community open spaces.

39. Dehradun Raipur groundwater recharge and rainwater harvesting: This sub-project
includes construction of 45 GWRPs and RHW structures along existing natural drainage channels
and in offices, parks and other open spaces to mitigate against drought and water scarcity in the
region. These measures provide some additional water supply to protect against moderate
drought conditions.

5. Higher temperatures and an increase in heatwaves with impact on water

demand

40. Water supply systems | increases in temperature. With average annual temperature
projected to rise by an average of 2°C by 2050 under RCP4.5 and 2.5°C under RCP8.5, water
demand is likely to increase, and the daily pattern water use may also change, with peak demands
 31

during the hottest months of the year. Periods of high demand may lead to low pressure in
distribution systems with disruption to supply for some households. The inclusion large water
service tanks will help to balance systems but other measures such as pressure management,
leakage detection and demand management will contribute to maintaining supplies during periods
of high demand.

6. Sewage Treatment Systems and Water Quality

41. Nainital sewage system | Receiving water quality. The STP treated effluent will be
discharged into a small rivulet that drains a small area of the hillside and then joins a main river
some 3km downstream. The treated STP flow is likely to be the major flow component of the
rivulet outside of the monsoon season. With the new larger works its anticipated that water quality
of the final effluent will be greatly improved, compared to the existing situation, and meet
appropriate discharge consent standards. For this and other STPs the overall impact of the sub-
projects will be to improve river water quality as a greater proportion of sewerage will be properly
treated.

III. CLIMATE ADAPTATION

42. This section reviews the available information for the Uttarakhand Urban Development
project to assess the planned adaptation activities and any opportunities for enhanced adaptation.
The key adaptation activities are the inclusion of groundwater recharge pits; rainwater harvesting
structures; water metering and water effluent re-use; sludge re-use; flood protection works and
robust outfall structures. For the non-structural measures: strengthened knowledge of green and
resilient urban planning; raising community awareness, participation and behavior change and
use of digital tools for managing urban water systems. The climate adaptation components are
summarized in Table III-1. According to MDB guidelines of Climate Finance, only the incremental
costs, or conservative proportional costs can be assigned a Climate Finance (Adaptation)
(Section IV).

43. The project also has some climate mitigation benefits through introduction of efficient
treatment technology and prevention of dumping of solid waste in drainage systems. The
proposed STP processes in the form of SBR can achieve 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions
of the typical treatment process in India 13. However, mitigation benefits are not developed in detail
in this report.

Table III-1 - Climate Adaptations Proposed and Opportunities for Further Adaptation.

Project activity Adaptation measures included Comments including

opportunities for
additional adaptation
Output 1 Water Supply System: Construction of water supply Ensuring rapid leakage
Water supply network in previously unconnected wards of detection and fixing of
system in Dehradun. leaks can help maintain
Dehradun Will ensure 135 litres per capita per day at all times supplies (see Output 3).
provided increasing the reliability of water supply, increased
from supply available for 3-4 hours per day.

13 Vijayan, G., Saravanane, R. and Sundararajan, T. 2017. Carbon Footprint Analyses of Wastewater Treatment
Systems in Puducherry. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 6, 281-303.
doi: 10.4236/cweee.2017.63019.
32

Project activity Adaptation measures included Comments including

opportunities for
additional adaptation
Providing access to water services reduces climate
and health risks to vulnerable communities, however
the main adaptation measures are:
• Groundwater recharge pits
• Rainwater harvesting structures
These components replenish groundwater supplies
and can reduce the demand for water, during
moderate droughts.
Output 1 Water Metering: Non-revenue water will be reduced This water efficiency
Water meters for from 45%-50% to 25%, greater than Uttarakhand measure was
volumetric state performance standards. Providing resilience to recommended in the
billing water scarcity by reducing wastage of water. National Water Mission.
Increased monitoring of water use will help to
manage leakage and promote water efficiency.
Output 2 Wastewater treatment and sludge management. The location of STP and
Integrated Increased treatment of wastewater from new, larger the protection of plant
sanitation STPs improving water quality of watercourses. from flooding is a key
system Efficient processes: Use of SBR for water treatment consideration.
provides highest treatment efficiency. New sewers
and STPs in areas previously unconnected from
sewerage network. Flood resilience measures
Separated systems: This provides resilience to and STP to ensure
heavy rainfall by reducing overflow of sewage into protection from floods
stormwater in drains and ultimately rivers. e.g., raising or protection
Water reuse: Treated effluent at Daudwala and of electrical equipment.
Nakraunda STPs will be reused for non-domestic Providing flood storage to
purposes on site. Greywater will be used to flush compensate for building
manholes daily (e.g., 0.1545MLD at Nakraundra) to STP in the functional
remove sediment and blockages. A treated effluent floodplain.
reuse plan will be developed.
Sludge reuse: plans will be developed e.g., for use
as fertiliser.
River channelisation will provide sufficient channel
capacity and reduce flood risk at Nakraunda STP.
Output 2 A total of 117km of stormwater drainage will Add climate change
Enhanced improve drainage and reduce flooding damage from allowance to design:
stormwater flash floods. New drains in area without any previous Increasing the capacity of
drainage SWD, increasing capacity for floodwater. drains to convey 10-20%
The 1 in 2-year design will also remove a significant more flow, anticipated due
proportion of stormwater during larger rainfall events. to climate change.
Recharge pits will be incorporated to promote Further use of drainage
groundwater recharge. BMPs to provide storage
Outfalls of the drainage system in Banjarawala wards and groundwater
will be constructed so that the invert level will be recharge.
above the High Flow Level (HFL) of the Bindal River. Adding additional
freeboard to outlet invert
levels.
Output 3 Digital Water Supply Monitoring Systems Linking monitoring and
CMMS Improved tracking and monitoring of WSS to reduce O&M to weather and
implemented leakage and advance O&M performance using climate information
city wide in geographic information system (GIS) to provide real
Dehradun and time information.
Nainital
 33

Project activity Adaptation measures included Comments including

opportunities for
additional adaptation
GIS linked to SCADA to report abnormal conditions
or equipment failures quickly.
Output 4 Strengthened knowledge of green and resilient Develop Disaster
Institutional urban planning, integrated water management and Management Plans and
capacity and sustainable WSS management across UUSDA, contingency plans for
knowledge urban local body, and ward councils. floods and droughts
strengthened Community awareness, participation and
behaviour change programs on water conservation,
waste reduction etc. for 250 community women.

44. Although the project does not include clear climate change allowances, e.g., for
stormwater drainage systems, it will have positive impacts on local flooding by removing a
significant volume of water compared to the current situation. Water supply systems will
significantly increase water efficiency and sewerage systems will provide some effluent re-use
and water quality benefits. These urban services have clear health benefits and can reduce the
climate risks of communities who do not have good access to basic services.

IV. CLIMATE FINANCE

45. The total project cost is USD $156.25 million of which ADB will finance $125 million and
he Government of Uttarakhand will finance $31.25 million. An outline assessment of the climate
finance is summarized in Table IV-1.

Table IV-1 - Proposed Climate Finance for the Adaptation Measures

Adaptation Target Climate Risk Estimated Adaptation Finance Justification
Activity Adaptation
Costs
($ million)
Groundwater Heavy rainfall 0.03 Promote groundwater recharge and
recharge pits Drought maintain stormwater channel
capacity. Included 100% of costs.
Soak-pits re- Heavy rainfall 0.07 Promote groundwater recharge and
utilization for Drought maintain stormwater channel
groundwater capacity. Included 100% of costs.
recharge
Rainwater Drought 0.04 Promotes water efficiency and reduces
harvesting Floods demand on treated potable
structures supplies. Included 100% of costs.
Overhead water Drought and 0.96 Storage in the system helps balance
tanks heatwaves peak daily demand and manage the
system during periods of
drought. Included 100% of costs
Replacing water Water scarcity, 6.86 136 km of resilient water pipes will
pipe and household drought and replace the existing 120km of aging
water supply heatwaves and leaking water pipe to nonrevenue
metered water reduction, addressing water
connections and scarcity. Included 40% of pipe,
smart flow meters household metered connections and
smart flow meters costs.
34

Adaptation Target Climate Risk Estimated Adaptation Finance Justification

Activity Adaptation
Costs
($ million)
Flood protection and Floods 1.52 Additional costs to improve resilience
river works of STPs through materials,
at two STPs raising foundations and protection
barriers close to rivers to
address floods.
Compact design of Floods 1.70 Additional costs to make compact STP
STPs and pre- to reduce impacts of floods and
fabricated STP incremental cost of pre-fabricated
STPs.
Mobile toilet buses Floods 1.65 Mobile toilet buses are climate resilient
measures during floods as they can
relocated in a safer place. Included
100% of costs.
Resilient network Floods 3.80 Designed above known flood levels,
and outfalls and robust to resist erosion at high flow
rates. Included 20% of costs
Strengthened Water scarcity, 3.08 Smooth implementation and
knowledge, droughts, floods, and knowledge strengthening, and
technical heatwaves institutional capacity buildings relevant
supervision, to all the adaptation measures with
trainings and project enhanced quality control activities,
implementation of costs associated with training on green
green and resilient and resilient urban planning, Nainital
urban planning and watershed resilient studies, hydro and
development geohydrology studies in Uttarakhand,
measures and costs associated with mobile
toilets operation training and similar
community awareness program.
Total 19.71
NRW=nonrevenue water, STP=sewerage treatment plant.

Table IV-2 – Summary of Project Mitigation Measures

Estimated GHG Estimated Mitigati
Emissions on
Reduction Costs Mitigation Finance
Mitigation Activity (tCO2e/year)a ($ million) Justification
Energy efficient motors, pumps, 27 0.08 Additional costs to procure
and other equipment at tube wells energy efficient machinery
and water pumping stations and equipment, which
would save energy and
reduce associated GHG
emissions.
Water meters both bulk meters and 2,542 0.09 Meters costs, which can
household meters contribute to water
savings. Water savings
can avoid additional water
processing and the energy
associated with raw water
processing

Resilient sewer pipe with sewer gas
leak control and household sewer
connections
Efficient STP processes
using Sequencing Batch Reactor
(SBR).
Energy efficient motors, pumps,
and other equipment at STPs
Treated water reuse
Intelligent water supply and
sanitation
system (CMMS+SCADA+smart lea
k detection and energy
audit) operation and asset
management for significant
35
3,192 43.47 Sewer pipes to expand
sewerage systems in
Dehradun and sewer
networks replacement to
control sewer gas leaks in
Dehradun and Nainital.
Included pipe and
household connector
costs. Using IPCC
reference, total organics in
wastewater is calculated.
(Noted that the calculation
using fugitive gases
emission factor indicated
in Tanmay Ram
Kate (2019) shows 3,184
tCO2e per year, which is
quite similar to the result
using IPCC approach.)
9,370 12.12 Included 40% of costs based
on estimated reduction in off-
site and fugitive GHG
emission:
Total STP
capacity 46.66 Ml/d
= 10,585,000 m3/yr
Typical STP emissions in
India referred in Tanmay
Ram Kate (2019):
Off-site 1.188411
kgCO2eq/m3
Fugitive 0.187019
kgCO2eq/m3
Assumed 40% reduction on
above through use of
SBR process (Vijayan et al,
2017)
1,054 0.23 Additional costs to procure
energy efficient machinery
and equipment for energy
saving and reduction of
energy-related
greenhouse gases
emissions.
6,668 0.27 Costs of storage tanks for
treated wastewater for
reuse, which avoid
additional energy that
requires processing raw
water at water treatment
plants.
1,186 4.81 Costs related to smart
CMMS training and
capacity
building activities and
community awareness,
participation and behavior
36

resource efficiency and energy change on water saving

savings, extending lifespan of and other resource and
assets energy savings
Strengthened knowledge, technical 508 6.73 Costs related to efficient
supervision and project WSS operation and asset
implementation management training,
of efficient smart water use, capacity
and behavior change program for building activities and
water savings. community awareness,
participation and behavior
change on water saving
and other resource and
energy savings
Total 24,547 67.80
CMMS=computerized maintenance management system, GGE=gasoline gallon equivalent, GHG=greenhouse gas,
IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, kg=kilogram, kW=kilowatt, kWh=kilowatt-hour,
MWh=megawatt-hour, kgCO2e/m3=kilogram of carbon dioxide equivalent per cubic meter, SBR=sequencing batch
reactor, SCADA=supervisory control and data acquisition, CO2e=tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, STP=sewerage
treatment plant, WSS=water supply and sanitation.
 37

46. Greenhouse gases reduction calculation. The following are the methodologies,
assumptions and approaches are provided in detail.

Table IV-3 – Detailed Calculation on Greenhouse gas Emissions

38
39
40
 41

REFERENCES

Census of India 2011. District Census Handbook-Dehradun.

Census of India 2011. District Census Handbook-Nainital.
Government of Uttarakhand. 2019. Action Plan for Rejuvenation of River Suswa. Dehradun.
National Institute of Hydrology-Roorkee. 2019. Preparation of Strategic Land and Water
Management Plan for Rejuvernation of Rispana River System. Jal Vigyan Bhawan, Roorkee
(Uttarakhand) – 247667 (draft report submitted to Irrigation Department of Government of
Uttarakhand).
Government of Uttarakhand. Uttarakhand State Action Plan for Climate Change. 2014.
Indian Meteorological Department. 2020. Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over
Uttarakhand State. Government of India, New Delhi, India.
Manual on Water Supply and Treatment - 1999:Central Public Health & Environmental
Engineering Organisation (CPHEEO), Government of India (web link)
State Disaster Management Authority Uttarakhand. State Disaster Management Plan 2020-21.
Government of Uttarakhand.
Tanmay Ram Kate (2019) Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wastewater Treatment Plants.
International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 10, Issue 09,
September 2019, pp. 81-89, Article ID: IJCIET_10_09_009.Available online at
http://www.iaeme.com/ijciet/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=10&IType=9 ISSN Print:
0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316
UUSDA. 2020. Detailed Project Report in Nainital Sewerage System Improvement. Uttarakhand.
UNFCCC. 2021. List of harmonized GHG accounting standards/approaches and guidelines
developed. Available online at https://unfccc.int/climate-action/sectoral-engagement/ifis-
harmonization-of-standards-for-ghg-accounting/ifi-twg-list-of-methodologies
Vijayan, G., Saravanane, R. and Sundararajan, T. (2017) Carbon Footprint Analyses of
Wastewater Treatment Systems in Puducherry. Computational Water, Energy, and
Environmental Engineering, 6, 281-303. doi: 10.4236/cweee.2017.63019.
WHO. 2011. Guidance on Water Supply and Sanitation in Extreme Weather Events, 2011.
 Appendix 1 42

CLIMATE DATA

A. Baseline Climate

1. Temperatures

Table A-1 – Monthly Temperatures for Dehradun (°C) (2000-2020)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Min 10.7 13.1 16.7 21.5 24.6 26.2 25.4 25.0 23.7 20.1 16.3 12.3
Avg 13.7 16.5 20.8 25.6 28.5 29.1 27.7 27.3 26.3 23.0 18.9 15.2
Max 17.1 19.8 24.8 29.1 31.6 31.6 29.6 28.9 28.1 26.2 21.6 18.0
Source: KNMI Climate explorer – observed station data for Dehradun.

Table A-2- Monthly temperature for Nainital (°C) (1901-2002)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Min 7.2 9.6 14.3 20.4 24.2 26.4 25.6 25.4 24.0 18.8 12.6 8.3
Avg 14.1 16.8 22.1 28.4 31.9 32.3 29.7 29.3 28.6 25.5 20.3 15.5
Max 21.0 24.0 30.0 36.4 39.6 38.3 33.8 33.2 33.2 32.2 28.0 22.8
Source: Monthly observed data for Nainital district from India Water Portal https://www.indiawaterportal.org/met_data/

2. Rainfall

Table A-3 – Monthly Precipitation (mm) for Dehradun (1901-2020)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max 229.9 212.9 198.0 97.9 193.2 963.5 1135.6 1328.4 1014.2 325.4 115.6 150.
2
Avg 52.4 58.6 41.7 19.7 36.4 183.5 633.4 692.9 295.6 45.5 7.0 20.5
Min 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 19.1 205.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Std 47.2 53.3 42.4 21.7 37.4 153.4 230.6 236.8 184.7 66.6 15.6 29.4
Source: KNMI climate explorer – Dehradun station data

Table A-4 – Monthly Precipitation (mm) for Nainital (1953-1970)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Min 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 5.5 120.0 476.0 254.1 92.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Avg 93.8 56.6 57.2 25.9 72.3 292.7 778.1 598.6 338.3 156.3 6.6 31.3
Max 203.2 241.4 159.7 72.0 360.9 591.0 1245.0 1305.9 768.4 856.9 41.5 177.6
STD 62.2 67.4 43.3 18.8 80.9 151.6 215.3 260.2 201.7 235.8 12.0 45.6
Source: KNMI climate explorer – Nainital station data.
 Appendix 1 43

B. Future Climate Projections – Additional Data

Table A-5 – Monthly Median Change Factors for Precipitation for 2 Time Periods under
RCP4.5 and 8.5
Time Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCP period
2035-
RCP 2065 -13% -10% -9% -12% 11% -11% 5% 9% 31% 24% 29% -4%
4.5 2066-
2095 -5% -11% -1% 1% 9% 9% 12% 22% 27% 6% 52% 6%
2035-
RCP 2065 -5% -7% -6% -13% -4% 3% 15% 12% 28% 18% 82% 0%
8.5 2066-
2095 2% -22% -18% 1% 9% 2% 22% 25% 40% 30% 126% 2%

Figure A-1 - Monthly Temperature Change Factors for (A) 2066-2095 under RCP4.5 and
(B) 2066-2095 Under RCP8.5
(a)
 44 Appendix 1

(b)

Table A-6 – Monthly Median Temperature Change Factors for 2 Time Periods under
RCP4.5 and 8.5
RCP Time Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
period
RCP4.5 2036- +2.3 +2.2 +2.2 +2.2 +2.0 +2.0 +1.8 +1.5 +1.7 +1.8 +2.0 +2.1
2065
2066- +3.0 +2.5 +2.7 +2.7 +2.8 +2.3 +2.2 +2.2 +2.0 +2.3 +2.4 +2.7
2095
RCP8.5 2036- +2.7 +2.7 +2.5 +2.9 +2.8 +2.5 +2.3 +2.0 +2.2 +2.4 +2.7 +2.6
2065
2066- +5.1 +4.8 +5.2 +4.7 +5.2 +4.7 +3.8 +3.4 +4.2 +4.5 +4.6 +4.6
2095
Source: NASA NEX-GDDP