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Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135 – 144

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Simulating the nature of vegetation communities at the opening of


the Neolithic on Achill Island, Co. Mayo, Ireland — the potential
role of models of pollen dispersal and deposition
Chris Caseldine a , Ralph Fyfe b,⁎, Catherine Langdon a , Gareth Thompson a
a
Department of Geography, School of Geography, Archaeology and Earth Resources, Amory Building, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
b
School of Geography, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK
Received 2 December 2005; received in revised form 10 July 2006; accepted 14 July 2006
Available online 22 August 2006

Abstract

The landscapes of the extreme western fringe of the European seaboard provide significant challenges to the reconstruction of
prehistoric landscapes. The landscapes that exist today often bear little resemblance to those that existed in the middle Holocene
owing to a combination of climatic and human influences on the landscape, and there are few surviving landscapes which offer an
analogous vegetation situation. The coast of Co. Mayo in Ireland provides perhaps one of the biggest challenges in this regard,
being now virtually treeless and covered with extensive tracts of ombrotrophic peat. Palaeoecological data sets indicate extensive
woodland in the past in these areas, and the archaeological record shows that the region supported Neolithic populations practising
early forms of agriculture. Landscape reconstruction using models that relate pollen dispersal to vegetation communities offers a
potential stochastic insight into the nature of former landscapes. The results presented here from a modelling approach to
reconstructing earlier prehistoric landscapes clearly demonstrate likely spatial vegetation patterning which could produce pollen
assemblages comparable to those in the sub-fossil record. Areas such as Achill Island would have had extensive woodland cover
dominated by taxa such as pine, oak and elm, a landscape substantially different from that which exists today. It is argued that at the
onset of clearance during the Neolithic the area would have been significantly more attractive to agriculture than it is today.
© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: pollen analysis; modelling; Ireland; landscape reconstruction; Neolithic

1. Introduction ships between landscape elements (geology, soils, as-


pect etc) and plant communities (Watt, 1947; Vera,
Interpretation of the likely structure of vegetation 2000). Where present landscapes are clearly very dif-
communities and the landscape that faced the first agri- ferent from those that existed in the Middle Holocene,
cultural communities in NW Europe has relied heavily due to human impact, climatic change, or a combination
on intuitive reconstruction founded in current ecological of the two, it is often difficult to conceptualise quite how
understanding and a qualitative estimation of relation- different those landscapes could have been. The land-
scape of the extreme western fringe of the European
⁎ Corresponding author. Fax: +44 1752 233054. seaboard along the coast of Co. Mayo in Ireland pro-
E-mail address: ralph.fyfe@plymouth.ac.uk (R. Fyfe). vides perhaps one of the biggest challenges in this
0034-6667/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.revpalbo.2006.07.002
136 C. Caseldine et al. / Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135–144

regard. The area is now virtually treeless and covered tröm et al., 1998; Nielsen, 2004; Nielsen and Odgaard,
with extensive tracts of ombrotrophic peat, many of 2005), and pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for all the
which have been modified or, in some cases, completely major taxa characteristic of West European pre-Neolithic
removed for fuel. Pollen and macrofossil data reveal woodland communities are now available for use in
evidence for extensive woodland in the past in these modelling (Broström et al., 2004). The development of
areas (O'Connell et al., 1988; O'Connell and Molloy, the programs MOSAIC and POLLFLOW as a means to
2001; Huang, 2002; Molloy and O'Connell, 2004; simulate landscapes and their pollen loadings at specific
Caseldine et al., 2005) and the density and richness of points in space (Middleton and Bunting, 2004; Bunting
the archaeological record (Cooney, 2000) show that, and Middleton, 2005) has allowed an evaluation of the
especially during the Neolithic, the region supported sort of vegetation mosaics and landscape structure that
populations practising early forms of agriculture. Deter- could have produced given empirical sub-fossil pollen
mining the character of the landscape that faced the counts, based on the Prentice–Sugita model (Sugita,
earliest agricultural communities is therefore a major 1993, 1994), as demonstrated by Caseldine and Fyfe
concern for both archaeologists and palaeoecologists. (2006) and Fyfe (2006).
Landscape reconstruction using models that relate This paper applies the pollen modelling approach to
pollen dispersal to vegetation communities offers a po- part of the landscape of Achill Island, Co. Mayo from
tential quantitative insight into the nature of former land- which pollen diagrams have been obtained as part of a
scapes (e.g. Prentice, 1985; Sugita, 1993, 1994; Gaillard project on long-term vegetation history and human im-
et al., 1994; Broström et al., 1998, 2004). Studies in pact (Caseldine et al., 2005), and seeks to determine
Southern Sweden and Denmark have used calibrated potential landscape and vegetation structure immediate-
models of pollen dispersal to reconstruct landscape struc- ly prior to the earliest Neolithic impact on the landscape
ture and composition with considerable success (Bros- around 5800 cal. yr BP.

Fig. 1. Location of study area. The dashed box indicates the extent of the area used in the DEM.
C. Caseldine et al. / Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135–144 137

2. Study Area (4) The prevailing wind systems are from the west,
and often extremely vigorous, and there is little
Achill Island lies at the westernmost tip of Ireland evidence to suggest that this may have varied
(Fig. 1), separated from the mainland by a narrow significantly in the past. This means that the
sound, with a climate dominated by the oceanic location amount of pollen deriving from outside the area
in the path of Atlantic westerly airstreams, characterised can be minimised (but see later discussion), as the
by high precipitation (over 1000 mm p.a. at sea level) nearest source to the west is the western seaboard
and relatively mild winters. The area chosen for this of the USA and Canada.
modelling study comprises the westernmost part of the (5) A limited number of taxa in the pollen record have
island, 6.5 × 4 km in extent, with an extensive area of dominated the vegetation, both in the past and
blanket peat surrounded to the west and north by moun- currently (Pinus, Quercus, Ulmus, Corylus, Poa-
tains (Fig. 1), underlain by Dalradian schists, quartzites ceae and Calluna).
and schistose conglomerates (Chew, 2003). (6) Radiocarbon dating and stratigraphical observa-
tions carried out during the project show that a
3. Modelling rationale large part of the flattest area in the study region
was covered by ombrotrophic peat as early as the
The area of Achill Island chosen for study has a Middle Holocene with peat initiation taking place
number of advantages for the modelling approach: as early as 9000 cal. yr BP (Caseldine et al.,
2005). This means that the absolute location of
(1) There are a series of detailed pollen diagrams dryland vegetation communities can be placed
covering most of the Holocene that are well-dated with certainty within the landscape.
over the period under review (Caseldine et al.,
2005; unpublished). Pollen data from adjacent peat profiles at Caislean
(2) Although not flat the area has very well defined covering most of the Holocene are available for the area
topography with relatively uniform predominant- (Caseldine et al., 2005; unpublished data) and provide
ly acidic geology. assemblages for the Early Neolithic at ca 5500 cal. yr
(3) Three sides of the area are surrounded by water, BP. These sequences are in close proximity to each
and hence define the immediate area formerly other, and have very similar pollen assemblages. One of
covered by vegetation. these assemblages derived from a peat section dated to

Fig. 2. Extract from Caislain pollen diagram. * indicates the pollen data used in the modelling approach.
138 C. Caseldine et al. / Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135–144

5500 cal. yr BP, immediately prior to significant de- Table 1


creases in woodland cover was chosen as representative Landscape units defined through combining height, slope and
elevation data derived from the DEM, and taxa assignment to these
of the pre-clearance woodland. Only the six main pollen units in model 2b
taxa are used within the modelling approach. The taxon-
Unit Height Slope Aspect Context Vegetation
specific input parameters for the Prentice/Sugita model composition
for these taxa (PPE and pollen fall speed) follow Sugita
– b0 Any NSEW Sea
et al. (1999) and Broström et al. (2004). An extract from
1 0–20 Any NSEW Low-lying Ulmus (45%),
the pollen diagram from the peat basin used for the coastal areas Pinus (50%),
modelling is given in Fig. 2. Further pollen data from the Corylus (5%)
area is presented in Caseldine et al. (2005). 2 20–400 1–10 NSEW Peat Calluna (75%)
To facilitate modelling of a faithful physical land- Poaceae (25%)
3 20–400 10–20 NSEW All gentle slopes Ulmus (45%),
scape for the western extent of Achill Island, a digitial
Pinus (50%),
elevation model (DEM) was constructed for an area of Corylus (5%)
6.5 × 4 km (26 km2). Following Fyfe (2006) the DEM 4 20–400 20–50 S South-facing Ulmus (45%),
was constructed with the aim of generating a range of moderate slopes Pinus (50%),
topographic units into which vegetation communities Corylus (5%)
5 20–400 20–50 EW East- and Quercus (25%),
could be placed. Spot height data at 50 m intervals were
west-facing Ulmus (40%),
interpolated within ArcGIS v.8.3 to create a DEM with moderate slopes Pinus (30%),
a pixel size of 25 m. The DEM was reclassified by slope Corylus (5%)
angle and aspect, and the resultant grids combined 6 20–400 20–50 N North-facing Quercus (45%),
and simplified to provide 10 individual landscape units moderate slopes Pinus (50%),
Corylus (5%)
(Table 1, Fig. 3). Pollen taxa were then assigned to each
7 20–400 50–60 NSEW Steep slopes Quercus (45%),
topographic unit on the basis of autoecological data Pinus (50%),
sets (Carlisle and Brown, 1968; Grime et al., 1988). Corylus (5%)
These data sets allow individual taxa to be placed in 8 20–400 N60 NSEW Very steep slopes Pinus (100%)
their favoured position, under the assumption that taxa 9 N400 b40 NSEW Above tree-line Poaceae (100%)
moderate slopes
follow ideal spatial distributions in prehistory. These
10 N400 N40 NSEW Above tree-line No pollen-
data sets suggest that: Quercus will favour north-facing steep slopes producing taxa
slopes up to an altitude of 460 m; Ulmus will favour
south-facing slopes up to an altitude of 300 m; Calluna
will favour low angle slopes; and Pinus will not be
competitive with deciduous species except upon steeper (2004). Central to applying such models is establishing
slopes. quantitative pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for the
different taxa and defining the relevant source area of
4. Modelling and results pollen (RSAP).
Hypothetical landscapes can now be constructed
The relationship between pollen loading at a site and using MOSAIC (Middleton and Bunting, 2004) based on
surrounding vegetation abundance, when weighted ac- vegetation communities of taxa for which estimates of
cording to distance from the site can be assumed to be pollen productivity are available. MOSAIC creates the
linear and forms the basis of the Extended R-value input into POLLFLOW (Bunting and Middleton, 2005)
(ERV) model (Parsons and Prentice, 1981; Sugita, 1993, that uses the Prentice (1985) model to generate pollen
1994). This relationship is dependent on a number of assemblages at specific points within the landscape. By
factors, notably relative pollen productivity of different changing the simulated landscape it is possible to eval-
species and background pollen input (Broström et al., uate the impact of altering vegetation structures, com-
2004). The vegetation abundance should be distance munity composition and species distributions on pollen
weighted to reflect pollen dispersal and deposition, deposition at these specified points, thus providing a
which is here assumed to follow principles of small means to estimate the most likely character of former
particle transfer (Sutton, 1953), as applied to pollen by landscapes by comparing simulated and observed pollen
Prentice (1985). Prentice's model was modified by assemblages.
Sugita (1993, 1994), to be applicable to lake sediments. The modelling approach adopted for Achill Island
This model (POLLSCAPE) has subsequently been tested has followed a twofold procedure. First a series of
in simulation studies by Sugita et al. (1999) and Nielsen simple theoretical landscape models were constructed
C. Caseldine et al. / Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135–144 139

Fig. 3. Construction of the DEM. Size of DEM is 6.5 × 4 km. A. visualisation of the DEM (looking to the north west), B. DEM reclassified into height
classes (in m OD), C. DEM reclassified into aspect classes, D. DEM reclassified into slope classes.

without use of the DEM, as a gross simplification of the tation of the surface into 4 blocks within a 1 km square
landscape to examine the likely impact of the inferred around the sample site:
gross vegetation structure at the time, especially the
extensive nature of the peat cover and the high pollen (1) Peat (50% Calluna: 50% Poaceae) — the sampling
values for taxa with contrasting requirements (notably site lies within the area of peat already extensive by
Pinus and Ulmus). One of the principal problems facing 5800 cal. yr BP and assumed for the model to be
landscape reconstruction in this area is that the pollen equally covered by these two taxa.
assemblages recovered from earlier parts of the Holo- (2) A block dominated by Pinus.
cene principally comprise taxa for which it is difficult to (3) A block dominated by Quercus.
estimate habitats/dominance given our current under- (4) A block dominated by Ulmus.
standing of the landscape as it is today. This was fol- (5) The remaining area surrounding these blocks is
lowed by the use of a much more complex model water and is non-pollen productive.
utilising the DEM and assigning likely vegetation com-
munities to specific landscape elements based on aspect, Blocks 2–4 were distributed in an arbitrary form
slope and altitude. Topographic control has been shown around Caislean.
to be an important factor within vegetation patterning in Running the model using this landscape produced a
a range of contrasting environments (e.g. Bolstad et al., pollen assemblage shown in Table 2. Perhaps remark-
1998; Pfeffer et al., 2003; Palo et al., 2005). This more ably this gives a close fit to the empirical data but is
complex landscape model was then varied to examine highly unlikely on ecological grounds to have repre-
the effect of differing amounts of background pollen sented the landscape. However its value lies in demon-
entering the system. Wind speed was set to 3 ms− 1 and strating the sort of spatial contribution required of some
atmospheric conditions assumed to be neutral through- of the taxa to produce a relative pollen signal com-
out all landscape model runs. parable to that found at Caislean and thus informs the
later more complex modelling. Attempts were also made
4.1. Landscape model 1 using the simple landscape model to replace the block
structure with a mosaic form to more approach ‘reality’
The simplest landscape model is outlined in Fig. 4A using more continuous mixed communities as shown in
and is based on dividing a two-dimensional represen- Fig. 4B,C. In Fig. 4B this is achieved by keeping the
140 C. Caseldine et al. / Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135–144

Fig. 4. MOSAIC-generated images for model 1, as simple 1 km2 blocks. A. blocks of communities, B. homogenous mix of species in non-peat block,
C. stands of species within non-peat block.

peat area constant and the area to the north assigned a complex ‘real’ landscape simulations undertaken in land-
homogeneous mix of taxa in equal proportions, and in scape model 2.
Fig. 4C the non-peat area is structured as a mosaic of
small circular patches of different taxa of 100 m radius. 4.2. Landscape model 2
Analysis of these results showed a varying degree
of comparability with the observed pollen assemblage Landscape model 1 provides encouraging results in
(Table 2). Perhaps surprisingly the most unrealistic block terms of comparability with observed pollen data and
landscape provides the nearest fit to the sub-fossil data, reveals that taxa not considered necessarily significant
only failing to fit the values for Pinus and Quercus. It does in terms of landscape coverage in the past given the soil/
however give a good representation for the NAP elements, climatic conditions (e.g. Ulmus) must have been a part
as do most of the simulations. The homogeneous mix of the landscape. However, the simple landscape model
seems of less predictive value, but overall the results takes no account of the reality of a diverse topography
reveal the need to look closely at the relative importance of and of local ecological variability. Landscape model 2
two of the higher pollen producers, Pinus and Quercus, as therefore utilised the DEM to break up the area into
the former is underrepresented and the latter overrepre- landscape units and uses predictive spatial modelling to
sented in the simulations. The understanding gained from assign vegetation types to these units, using a set of
this simplistic approach can then be fed into the more species distribution rules. The landscape was divided up
according to aspect, slope and elevation (Fig. 3) and
these two then synthesised into 10 units (Table 1). The
Table 2
Results of model 1 (a,b,c) simulated pollen loading, compared with
areas of peat and water were assigned as before except
empirical data now according to the precise mapping of the area.
Vegetation categories were assigned to these units
Calluna Poaceae Pinus Quercus Corylus Ulmus
following tolerances taken mainly from Grime et al.
Actual 79.47 7.80 6.98 1.54 0.51 0.92
(1988) and described above, separating the main taxa
Block 68.02 1.67 26.34 2.91 0.54 0.51
(Fig 4A) found in the pollen record as far as possible. Using this
Homogenous 73.14 2.58 20.54 2.9 0.54 0.3 approach the taxa were assumed therefore to have oc-
(Fig. 4B) curred in patch sizes reflecting the landscape structure.
Circle 71.74 2.53 24.74 0.77 0.11 0.1 Bunting et al. (2004) have shown the importance of
(Fig. 4C)
patch size and vegetation structure on relevant source
C. Caseldine et al. / Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135–144 141

Table 3 the past landscape, to account for the high pollen pro-
Results of model 2 ‘realistic’ simulations (based in autoecological portions found in the fossil record. Keeping the structural
distribution of taxa) compared to empirical data
units made a revised ecologically-driven model difficult
Calluna Poaceae Pinus Quercus Corylus Ulmus as deciding on aspect/slope combinations within which
Empirical 79.47 7.80 6.98 1.54 0.51 0.92 pine would have been likely to out compete other
Model 2a 89.1 9.05 0.42 0.70 0.31 0.42 woodland could not be consistently argued. As a solution
Model 2b 79.2 5.75 10.78 3.01 0.27 1.00
it was decided to disperse pine throughout all the wood-
land communities assuming that it would take advantage
area of pollen (RSAP) and this aspect also emerged as of smaller pockets within each of the landscape elements
important in the simple landscape modelling. In this where, for instance, soils were particularly shallow. The
instance it is necessary to assume that the nature of the success of pine after this period in extending onto areas
underlying physical landscape will determine the likely of peat (Caseldine et al., 2005) implies an extensive local
patch sizes. presence and potential ubiquity in an acid landscape
At this stage it would be possible to derive a wide where deciduous elements may not have always been
range of plausible landscape/vegetation units; hence, able to compete successfully. Running the model with
deciding on the precise approach to follow is somewhat the revised approach provided a very good fit to the
arbitrary. It is however a feature of the modelling ap- observed sub-fossil data (model 2b: Table 3) suggesting
proach that this stage can be revisited depending upon a potential or plausible landscape structure with pine
the ensuing output. Any number of structures can be well distributed throughout the landscape.
tested and either accepted as plausible, or more likely, All the simulations discussed so far have assumed no
and in many ways more usefully, rejected. Underlying background pollen from outside the area, an assumption
this must however be a respect for physical landscape considered extremely likely given the nature of the area.
patterning such that any revisions of the assigned units It is however possible to build in different assumptions
should amalgamate or subdivide the physically deter- about background inputs and assess the impact on the
mined units rather than impose arbitrary structures. resultant pollen record. Fig. 5 shows the effect of adding
The approach used in this example was to run the three different background assumptions to model runs,
model with a distribution thought to reflect likely ecolo- ranging from a background of 100% pine to one that
gical determinants. This produced a pollen assemblage mimicked the actual sub-fossil counts, compared to re-
which for some taxa were very similar to that observed at sults when assuming no background pollen. Most telling
Caislean (model 2a: Table 3). However, this underrep- is the impact of a 100% Pinus component that despite the
resented the importance of Pinus in the area and implies openness of the immediate landscape transforms the
a greater significance to the importance of open areas of pollen assemblage to over 75% Pinus, as would be found
peat dominated by Calluna. Based on ecological tol- in open landscapes away from latitudinal treelines in
erances (Carlisle and Brown, 1968), pine had been arctic environments such as northern Scandinavia
restricted to steeper and more exposed sites, but the (Fig. 5: 100% Pinus background). Reducing the back-
species must have been represented more widely through ground to an even distribution of all represented taxa

Fig. 5. Results of varying background pollen component, compared with the empirical data.
142 C. Caseldine et al. / Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135–144

(20%) still tends to inadequately reflect the immediate present day flora so any PPEs used will have to be
openness, this time favouring both Quercus and Pinus derived from a non-comparable environment. It is
(Fig. 5: mixed background). Using a background that possible that this process will result in spurious
mirrors the contemporary distribution of taxa excluding model data; however, both southern Sweden and
Calluna (i.e. reflecting a non-peat background but with western Ireland are well within the (modern) geo-
some openings) similarly appears to suggest a much graphic range of the taxa used in the modelling
greater importance for woodland taxa (Fig. 5: varied approach, so differences in PPEs are anticipated to
background). Overall the variability in these results be small. The predominant controls on PPEs are
reinforces the importance of making careful assumptions likely to relate to climatic factors, but until a
about the background component, especially in relative- greater number of PPEs from across the geo-
ly open environments, and justifies the use of an area graphic range of taxa are available, the only op-
such as Achill Island for testing landscape reconstruc- tion is to apply the most reliable PPEs available
tions, as it is considered very unlikely that pollen from for north-west Europe.
the mainland to the east would ever have had a signi- (3) Running simulations has the potential to be an
ficant input into the area given the dominance of westerly unending process as it is always possible to change
airstreams with far distant neighbouring landmasses. parameters. Choosing the parameters within which
to operate presents an important methodological
5. Discussion issue. For Achill Island a number of parameters
were set that were believed to be grounded on
Any form of modelling reduces complex situations to reasonable assumptions about the species involved,
simplified approximations of reality, and in doing so and also that offered the potential to provide a range
cannot be used to reconstruct accurately exactly how of outcomes, setting a plausible envelope for the
things were. This is especially true of landscapes as study as a whole.
complex as that of Achill Island. However, the value of
the approach is that it does offer insights into potential On the basis of the results presented, a number of
characteristics that either may not have been previously issues of importance for understanding the Middle Holo-
considered or run counter to established thinking. Thus cene landscape of this area characteristic of the north-
the landscape reconstructions detailed here present po- western seaboard can be discussed. It is highly plausible
tential scenarios that are based on a more quantitative that except for the areas already covered by peat, most of
basis than previously and provide the foundation for the landscape of Achill Island was covered by a range of
future thinking, especially by other specialists such as tree species. Given the variability in slope and aspect and
archaeologists who require more objective data than their influence on soil development it seems possible that
previously available when trying to understand human– although there was some ecological variability the wood-
environment interactions. land itself followed the pattern reconstructed here. Thus
The principal weaknesses of the current modelling lie the slopes immediately surrounding the flatter bog areas
in a number of areas: would have been dominated by deciduous trees such as
oak and elm with pockets of pine rather than a dominantly
(1) The models are purely two-dimensional and take pine woodland with small pockets of elm and oak on the
no account of the actual topography. Uneven sur- most favoured locations. Assuming that this was the
faces and air movements up and down slope, plus nature of the landscape that faced the earliest Neolithic
the impact of land barriers on pollen transport are communities clearance could have affected large parts of
well established (Price and Moore, 1984), as is the the landscape. The areas affected may have been deter-
variable height at which pollen is dispersed into mined by proximity to settlement as much as by seeking
the atmosphere (Tauber, 1965). Models are being out preferred areas, at least for large areas of dominantly
developed to try to address these issues; however, southern facing slopes.
there is a danger in trying to mimic individual
landscapes in too much detail and provide a series 6. Conclusions
of unique solutions.
(2) The PPEs for individual species used for Ireland The modelling exercise carried out here has demon-
are not based on Irish but on Scandinavian data. strated the potential of pollen modelling to landscape
Reliable PPEs for the taxa involved cannot be reconstruction and identified some important methodo-
effectively determined for Achill Island from the logical and interpretational issues. Despite recognising
C. Caseldine et al. / Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 144 (2007) 135–144 143

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