An Investigation into the Strategies of Rock, Paper, Scissors

050383-0153
January 26, 2024
Introduction

The game rock paper scissors was first invented in 206 BCE, and ever since then, the

game has spread throughout the world and has become a go-to for children and adults alike when

trying to settle a score. I remember playing the simplistic game with my brothers to figure out

who would do the chores for that day. And somehow, I would always lose, leaving all the work

on me. Even now, when playing casually with my friends, I normally end up on the losing side.

The game consists of 3 symbols: a rock symbolized by a closed fist, scissors, symbolized

by a v-shape made with the pointer and middle finger, and paper which is symbolized by a flat

hand. In the game, rock beats scissors, scissors beats paper, and paper beats rock. You can either

win, tie or lose each round.

Aim

The aim of my IA is to analyze the different plays and understand the patterns players of the

game use within a specific round to win. To aid me in this IA, I used mathematical models such

as Markov chains, and the chi-square test, to visualize and explain the different

Theoretical Probability

To further understand the odds of winning rock paper scissors, I found each combination that

could possibly happen in five rounds (for example, winning all five rounds, losing all five

rounds, winning twice, losing twice and tying once, etc). In five rounds alone, there are 243

possible outcomes. 98 of them end in a win, 94 of them end in a loss, and 53 of them end in a tie.

Additionally, 84 of the possibilities start with a win.

I decided to find the probability of Player V winning given that they win the first round.

To do so, I used the formula:

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)
In which, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = the probability of winning the game given that you win the first round,

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)= the probability of winning the game and the first round, A = the probability of

winning the game , and B = the probability of winning the first round

Because the two events are dependent on each other, I manually found 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) instead of

using the commonly used formula of:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵)

In doing so, I found that:

53
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 243

53 84
Therefore, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 243
÷ 243

53
𝑃 (𝐴|𝐵) = 84

≈ 63%

Therefore, to have a greater chance of winning the game, one must win the first round.

Data Collection & Validity

My source of data comes from tests I ran with the help of my fellow classmates. I had 6 pairs of

2 play 10 rounds of rock paper scissors. Figure 1 shows each

time a person won, lost, or tied when playing rock, paper, or

scissors. R, P and S stands for rock, paper, and scissors,

respectively. Using this table, I ran a chi-square test, which will

prove the fact that the probability that someone will win is

either dependent or independent on the symbol played. The

steps to running the test are as follows:

 First, I found the expected frequency (figure 2)

of each value. The equation is as follows:

(𝑅𝑜𝑤 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙) (𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙)

𝐸= 𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙

I then found the degree of freedom (df) of my

table, which is used to find the critical value.

𝑑𝑓 = (#𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑠 − 1)(#𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛𝑠 − 1)

𝑑𝑓 = (3 − 1)(3 − 1)

𝑑𝑓 = 4

Using the degree of freedom, I used the

critical value table (figure 3) to find the

critical value of my chart. I read the chart at

a significance level of 0.05, giving me a

critical value of 9.49

With all this information, I was finally able to run the test. The equation is as follows:

2
2 (𝑂−𝐸)
𝑥 = ∑ 𝐸

2
Where 𝑥 = the test statistic, O = the observed frequency (ie the raw data), and E = the expected

frequency

This gives me the following calculations:

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2 (9−12.3) (17−12.3) (10−11.4) (17−12.98) (15−12.98) (6−12.03) (15−15.7) (9−15.7) (22−14.6)
𝑥 = 12.3
+ 12.3
+ 11.4
+ 12.98
+ 12.98
+ 12.03
+ 15.7
+ 15.7
+ 14.6

= 14.0762638

≈ 14.08
Since 14.08 > 9.49, the null hypothesis that the variables are R P S Total
independent has been rejected and I now know that the probability that
1 6 2 5 13
one wins, loses, or ties is dependent on the symbol played.

Additionally, I decided to figure out whether the symbol thrown 2 3 2 8 13

and the round number is dependent on each other as well. The table on
3 5 4 2 11
the right shows the number of times each symbol was played each

round. I once again used the chi-square test to prove the dependence. 4 3 4 2 9

I used the same formula to find the degree of freedom for this table.
5 4 5 5 14
𝑑𝑓 = (#𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑠 − 1)(#𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛𝑠 − 1)
6 3 3 6 12
𝑑𝑓 = (10 − 1)(3 − 1)

𝑑𝑓 = 18 7 5 4 2 11

Using this value, I was able to find the critical value of the table, which
8 1 4 6 11
came out to be 28.869.
9 2 5 5 12

10 6 3 5 14

Total 38 36 46 120

I then found the expected frequencies of the table, and used them in the chi-square equation. My

workings are shown below:

Since 2342.05 > 28.869, I concluded that the symbol played is dependent on the round. These

prove the point that rock paper scissors is not just a simple game of chance. A player’s play is

conditioned by the factors set from before.

Conditional Probability

Most people believe that Rock Paper Scissors is a game of chance. However, our

decisions in the game are influenced by different psychological and physical factors. According

to Gradient, rock is the most common first play with a probability of being thrown at 51%,

followed by scissors, at 26%, then paper, with a chance of 23%. Figure 4 is a simplified version

of a payoff matrix. Through the perspective of only one player. In this version, a player gets 0

points if they lose, 1 point if they win, and 0.5 points if they tie. Using this, I

decided to calculate the expected value of throwing each symbol in the first

round.

The expected value of playing any symbol first can be shown through the

following formula:

𝑛
𝐸(𝑉𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥𝑖 (𝑝𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 )
𝑖
Where E(Vxi) = the expected value, xi = the expected payoff, and (pX= xi) = the probability of xi

happening.

When the values of each variable are added, the equation will look like the following:

𝐸(𝑉𝑝) = 1 · 0. 51 + 0 · 0. 26 + 0. 5 · 0. 23

5
𝐸(𝑉𝑝) = 8

= 0. 625

𝐸(𝑉𝑟) = 1 · 0. 26 + 0 · 0. 23 + 0. 5 · 0. 51

103
𝐸(𝑉𝑟) = 200

= 0. 515

𝐸(𝑉𝑠) = 1 · 0. 23 + 0 · 0. 5 + 0. 5 · 0. 26

9
𝐸(𝑉𝑠) = 25

= 0. 36

From this, I can conclude that the value of playing paper is greater than playing any other hand.

This can also be proven by the fact that most people play rock first, with paper being the least

common play. By playing paper first, you are most likely to win the first round, therefore having

a whopping 63% chance of winning the game

Poisson Distribution & Expected Values

Figure 5 is a markov chain, which visualizes the transitional probabilities a player takes

throughout different rounds.

I decided to use the poisson distribution in order to find

what the likelihood of winning would look like given

the options that a player has. To do this, I used the same

equation that I used to find the expected values of each first move.

𝑛
𝐸(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥𝑖 (𝑝𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 )
𝑖

Where E(x) = the expected value, xi = the expected payoff, and (pX= xi) = the probability of xi

happening.

The following workings shows the expected values of throwing rock, paper, and scissors,

respectively.

8 17 1
𝐸(𝑅) = 0 · 99
+1 · 99
+ 0. 5 · 9

5
= 22

13 10 7
𝐸(𝑃) = 0 · 99
+1 · 99
+ 0. 5 · 99

3
= 22

16 1 2
𝐸(𝑆) = 0 · 99
+1 · 9
+ 0. 5 · 33

14
= 99

From this alone, I can deduce that playing rock has the highest value out of all 3 possibilities.
𝑥 λ
λ 𝑒
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑥!

Where λ = expected value, X = number of events, and f(x) = the likeness of the event occurring. I

decided to use 4 as the number of events, to represent the other four rounds of rock paper

scissors.
5
5 4
( 22 ) 𝑒 22
𝑓(𝑅) = 4!

≈ 1.39·10-4
 3
3 4
( 22 ) 𝑒 22
𝑓(𝑃) = 4!

≈ 1.65·10-5
14
14 4
( 99 ) 𝑒 99
𝑓(𝑆) = 4!

≈ 1.91 ·10-5

From what we can see, the playing of scissors has the highest likelihood of occurring out

of all three rounds. Therefore, players should use rock the most out of the other symbols. This

could also be deduced through the fact that the expected value of rock was the highest out of the

three.

Conclusion

My investigation actively debunks the myths of RPS being a simple, chance-led game.

My findings show that every variable is dependent on the other, and that in order to win, one

must understand the way their opponent thinks. By using mathematical data, as well as game

theory, I was able to analyze my data , and explain my conclusions.

 Works Cited

Adam Hayes. “Poisson Distribution: Formula and Meaning in Finance.” Investopedia, 19 May

2022, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/poisson-distribution.asp. Accessed 26

January 2024.

Gradient. “Trendlines.” YouTube: Home, 9 November 2017,

https://email.gradientmetrics.com/t/t-e-zbilo-jldktdjrtu-r/. Accessed 26 January 2024.

Kognity. “Chi-squared Test.” app.kognity, 9 November 2017,

https://app.kognity.com/study/app/sbi3u7/sid-64-cid-238918/book/chi-squared-test-id-94

61/. Accessed 26 January 2024.

Li, Timothy. “Expected Value Definition, Formula, and Examples.” Investopedia, 25 August

2023, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expected-value.asp. Accessed 26 January

2024.