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Lecture 5
Lecture 5
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Please note:
T
SH
International Financial
Markets and Banking
L ESACRHNOI N
OGL
Juliane Thamm
Lecture 5
Debt and Money Markets
Debt Markets
Debt Markets
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Bonds
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Image:
https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FINAL-
eng-global-debt-blog-dec-8-chart-127.jpg Also check out the
Economist’s Global Debt
Clock
https://www.economist.com/c
ontent/global_debt_clock
Government Bonds
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Government bonds are usually regarded as being free from credit risk.
This is because governments have the power of taxation.
* of which Bank of England holds 481,104 462,586 464,314 513,738 784,092 804,496
Source: https://www.dmo.gov.uk/data/gilt-market/
You can lose money buying and selling gilts from year to year (or month
to month) in the secondary market before they mature
Oct. 2015, the total amount of gilts in issue: £1,454.69 billion nominal
Nominal (face or par or maturity) value of £100
usually pay a coupon (sometimes called the dividend)
for example: ‘Treasury 4.5pc ’42’ pays out £4.50 each year for every
£100 nominal, in the year 2042 the nominal value of £100 is paid,
coupons are paid twice yearly
Gilt Auctions
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Since 1998 the Debt Management Office (DMO*) has been responsible for gilt
issues.
Its objective is “to minimise over the long term the cost of meeting the
government’s financing needs, taking into account risk, while ensuring that the
debt management policy is consistent with the objectives of monetary policy.”
‘Big Bang’ affected the gilt market as well as the equity market.
Gilt Edged Market Makers (GEMMs) act in the dual role of brokers and market
makers.
GEMMs are obliged to quote two-way prices for a wide range of gilts and are
expected to bid in the auctions. In return they get special access to the DMO.
The DMO also acts in the secondary market, bidding for existing gilt stock and
‘tapping’ existing issues.
Some gilts trade as STRIPs. This is where the bond is split and the interest
coupons are traded separately from the principal payment.
http://markets.ft.com/research/Mark
ets/Bonds
Yields typically vary by time to maturity and various theories exist to explain the term
structure of interest rates
Expectations Theory
The bond market discounts future short term interest rates.
If the yield curve slopes up this implies short rates will be higher in future
Preferred Habitat
Yields are determined by the balance between supply (issuers) and demand (investors) at
different maturities
Investors require a risk premium for lending for a longer term
Market Segmentation
Different types of investors operate in short term bond markets compared to longer term
markets.
© Juliane Thamm – University of Strathclyde
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Australia 3.31% 2.71% 2.04% 2.79% 2.72% 1.03% 0.73% 1.67% 4.06%
Austria 1.12% 0.88% 0.11% 0.62% 0.75% -0.22% -0.45% 0.07% 3.06%
Belgium 1.23% 0.92% 0.14% 0.72% 0.89% -0.16% -0.39% 0.16% 2.99%
Denmark 1.14% 0.90% 0.02% 0.52% 0.47% -0.46% -0.51% 0.13% 2.74%
Finland 1.03% 0.85% 0.03% 0.62% 0.78% -0.21% -0.43% 0.01% 3.03%
France 1.30% 0.89% 0.13% 0.74% 0.87% -0.19% -0.35% 0.19% 2.93%
Germany 0.89% 0.60% -0.11% 0.45% 0.53% -0.47% -0.63% -0.15% 2.34%
Greece 7.36% 7.83% 8.25% 5.58% 4.51% 1.46% 0.79% 0.90% 4.96%
Italy 2.52% 1.19% 1.21% 2.24% 3.36% 1.05% 0.68% 0.88% 2.90%
Japan 0.47% 0.33% -0.08% 0.04% 0.16% -0.18% 0.03% 0.09% 0.25%
Netherlands 1.05% 0.78% 0.01% 0.57% 0.63% -0.33% -0.52% -0.02% 2.68%
New Zealand 4.02% 3.46% 2.36% 2.97% 2.65% 1.18% 0.57% 2.07% 4.49%
Portugal 3.27% 2.37% 3.32% 2.41% 1.90% 0.19% 0.13% 0.36% 3.44%
Spain 2.19% 1.83% 0.93% 1.75% 1.57% 0.22% 0.13% 0.50% 3.55%
Sweden 1.27% 0.67% 0.19% 0.92% 0.69% -0.22% -0.10% 0.38% 2.15%
Switzerland 0.45% -0.18% -0.53% -0.02% 0.06% -0.68% -0.56% -0.09% 1.39%
UK 2.23% 1.83% 0.73% 1.36% 1.66% 0.64% 0.17% 1.16% 4.37%
US 2.26% 2.09% 1.59% 2.32% 3.21% 1.68% 0.73% 1.31% 4.02%
Other Sovereigns
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
French bonds
OATS (Obligations assimilables du Trésor), (7–50-year bonds, mostly fixed rate)
BTANS (Bons du Trésor à intérèts annuels), (2–5-year bonds with a fixed rate of interest)
German bonds
Two-year Federal Treasury Notes – Bundesschatzanweisungen (Schätze)
Five-year Federal Notes – Bundesobligationen (Bobls)
10- and 30-year Federal Bonds – Bundesanleihen (Bunds)
Japanese bonds
Japanese government bonds (JGBs) maturity of 2, 5, 10 and 20 years
Chinese bonds
2009 it issued the first bonds denominated in the Chinese renminbi currency.
Corporate Bonds
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
The key difference between corporate bonds and those issued by government is in the
probability of default
Credit rating agencies exist to provide investors with guidance on the probability an
issuer will default
Generally, you would expect corporate bonds to yield more than government bonds
and this ‘yield spread’ will be higher the lower the bond’s credit rating
Corporate bonds
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Many corporate bonds are listed on the London Stock Exchange and
other exchanges in Europe, Asia or the Americas
Majority of trading occurs in the OTC market
Generally very thin secondary markets
Minimum trade size is occasionally £1,000, more often £50,000.
London Stock Exchange opened a secondary market trading lots are
just £100 or £1,000.*
* see: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/traders-and-brokers/security-types/retail-bonds/private-investor-guide.pdf
Bond Indenture
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
The contract between a bond issuer and the investor is called the ‘indenture’ – it will
contain a range of provisions designed to protect the interests of investors
Call Option
Some bonds may be “called” (i.e. repurchased) by the issuer. The issuer is most likely
to do this if interest rates have fallen and it can refinance at a lower rate
Sinking Fund
This commits the issuer to buy back a certain proportion of the fund each year, e.g. 5%
of the issue. This is designed to ensure the capital is paid back
Convertibility
Some bonds are issued as “convertibles”. This means at some point in the future the
bond can be exchanged for a set amount of common shares. This is a benefit to the
bond holder if the share price has risen. There is usually no need to convert if the
shares are worth less than the bond
Infinite variation
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Credit rating
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Mortgage Bonds
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
A bank makes a mortgage loan to a customer; it then ‘packages’ that loan together with
other loans into a bond issue to be sold to investors
The bondholders become the beneficial owners of the mortgage, with the right to receive
the interest and principal repayments, however, they also suffer if there are any defaults
Mortgage holders typically have the right to pay off their loans early and this can create
problems for bondholders; early repayments are “passed through” to the bondholders,
this is most likely to occur when rates have fallen, which is precisely the time when you
do not want your capital returned
Recap: Securitisation
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Loan
BANK BORROWER
Interest
Capital Interest
SPV
Interest
Capital
Securitisation
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Repackaged debt
Replacement of long-term assets with cash (improving liquidity and
financial gearing)
Allow a profit on the difference between the interest on the mortgages
and the interest on the bonds
Asset-backed securities (ABS)
Special purpose vehicle (SPV) or special purpose entity (SPE)
Asset-backed securitisation involves the pooling and repackaging of
relatively small, homogeneous and illiquid financial assets into liquid
securities
Financial Innovation
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Investment banks are constantly looking to create new debt securities that
meet the needs of investors
The new CDO securities are issued in tranches, with each tranche having
different risk/return tradeoffs; one tranche may be constructed to have a AA
rating, while the others have lower credit ratings
The tranche with the lowest rating is effectively “equity” and may be retained
by the CDO manager. If they have done a good job picking bonds for the
portfolio, the equity tranche will be valuable. If not, it may be worth nothing.
© Juliane Thamm – University of Strathclyde
CDOs
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S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
AA-rated
CDO = create
Tranche
a portfolio
of bonds with A-rated
various Tranche
credit ratings
Equity
A, BBB, BB
Tranche
Foreign bonds
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
examples:
Samurai bonds, Yankee bonds (US), Bulldog bonds (UK), Rembrandt
bonds (the Netherlands), Matador bonds (Spain), Panda bonds (China),
Kangaroo bonds (Australia) and Maple bonds (Canada)
Bonds sold outside the jurisdiction of the country of the currency in which the
bond is denominated
Not subject to the rules and regulations which are imposed on foreign bonds,
not usually subject to an interest-withholding tax
Bearer bonds
Green Bonds
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Green Bonds are any type of bond instrument where the proceeds will be
exclusively applied to finance or re-finance, in part or in full, new and/or
existing eligible Green Projects and which are aligned with the four core
components of the Green Bond Principles (GBP).
The GBP are voluntary process guidelines that recommend transparency and
disclosure and promote integrity in the development of the Green Bond market
by clarifying the approach for issuance of a Green Bond.
For more information see the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) webpage: https://www.icmagroup.org/green-social-and-
sustainability-bonds/green-bond-principles-gbp/
https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/BNEF-Figure-1-Annual-sustainable-debt-
issuance-2013-2021.png
Money Markets
Money Markets
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Money markets deal with short term borrowing and investing requirements
A variety of different money market instruments exist, with the key distinction
being who issues the claim
Government
Bank
Company
Banks can deposit excess funds, e.g. overnight, for interest, or borrow to meet any
cash shortfall
The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) was the key interest rate quoted in the
market for a range of currencies and maturities; it will no longer be used from 2021
replaced in the UK by Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) and quoted for
Pound Sterling
Eurocurrency
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Currency is deposited and lent outside the jurisdiction of the country that
issued the currency, e.g. Eurocurrency, Eurodollar, Euroyen,
Euroswissfrancs
Treasury Bills
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
T-bills are short term money market securities issued by the government
UK: the DMO issues T-bills to smooth the government’s cash needs over the
course of the year
T-bills are often taken as the “risk-free rate” because the credit and inflation
risks involved are negligible
Commercial Paper
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
Most issuers have ‘investment grade’ credit ratings, i.e. BBB or above
Repos
S T R AT H C LY D E B U S I N E S S S C H O O L
A repo is a way of borrowing for a few days using a sale and repurchase
agreement in which securities are sold for cash at an agreed price with
a promise to buy back the securities at a specified (higher) price at a
future date
Used very regularly by banks and other financial institutions to borrow
money from each other
This market is also manipulated by central banks to manage their
monetary policy
The term for repos is usually between 1 and 14 days
A reverse repo (RRP).
Image on next slide: chart 1 on p. 29 of Fisher, M. (2002) “Special Repo Rates: An Introduction”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review
87(2), pp. 27-43. Available at: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/economic-review/2002/vol87no2_fisher.pdf
© Juliane Thamm – University of Strathclyde
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Issued by banks when funds are deposited with them by other banks,
corporations, individuals or investment companies
Maturities can be any length of time between a week and a year
(typically 1–4 months)
Lots ranging from £50,000 to £500,000 in the UK, or $100,000 to $1
million in the US
Non-negotiable CDs must be held by the depositor until the CD reaches
maturity
Negotiable CD traded in a secondary market.
Observations can be made about the interest rate on different money market
instruments:
- Generally, investors require extra return for longer lending periods
- The credit rating of the borrowing institution has a strong influence on the rate of
interest charged
- When expectations about future inflation rise, interest rates rise accordingly, which
leads to a decrease in the market price of money market instruments
- Supply and demand
- Money market interest rates with similar terms to maturity stay close together and
move up or down with quite a high degree of correlation over time
- Short-term interest rates can be lowered by central banks intervening in the markets.
next steps
Please review the lecture 5 material and complete the week 5 required
reading, then attempt to answer the workshop 5 questions.
Try self-assessment quiz 5 and don’t forget about the Survey home work
and check out podcase 2.
Next Tuesday’s lecture (wk6) will be Q&A session about the class test.
Keep e-mailing topic suggestions for future Tuesdays.
further help: