Menu Subscribe

The Economist explains | Tragedy in Gaza city

What evidence reveals about the Gaza hospital

blast’s source
The damage points to a malfunctioning rocket, not an air strike

Oct 20th 2023

Footage appears to show the moment of the blast

A t around 7pm on October 17th, a blast struck the Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza
city. The hospital is run by the Anglican church, and a church official told
the BBC that around 600 staff and patients were in the complex, and 1,000
civilians were sheltering in the grounds. Within hours the Gazan health ministry,
which is overseen by Hamas, said that almost 500 civilians had died (though
various Western intelligence officials have put the number as much as 50-90%
lower.)

Hamas and several Arab countries swiftly blamed Israel for the attack. Israel
claimed that the explosion had been caused by a failed rocket launch by
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (pij), a militant group operating in Gaza. pij denied
involvement. But the balance of evidence suggests that an errant rocket was more
likely to have been responsible.

On October 18th President Joe Biden arrived in Tel Aviv and cautiously backed
Israel’s version of events, telling Binyamin Netanyahu, the country’s prime
minister, that the catastrophe appeared to have been caused by “the other team”.
America’s National Security Council said that it came to that conclusion based on
“available reporting, including intelligence, missile activity and open-source

video and images of the incident”. On

October 19th, in a televised address,
Mr Biden said unequivocally that the
explosion at the hospital “was not
done by the Israelis”. What
information is available—and what
does it reveal about the blast?

Timeline of a tragedy
Local Gaza/Israel time (GMT+3)

Tuesday October 17th

18:15 Hamas fires rockets, triggering sirens in
southern Israel

18:50 Video footage shows a rocket explode in the

sky above Gaza city
image: the economist
18:59 Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fires a series of
rockets from a cemetery near the Ahli Arab
hospital, according to the Israeli Defence
Forces (IDF)

18:59 Video footage shows a blast in the car park of the hospital

19:09 The Al-Quds Brigade, the military arm of the PIJ, says that it has fired rockets at Israel

21:20 Turkey condemns the “latest example” of Israel’s “attacks devoid of the most basic human values”

22:46 Jordan condemns Israel for perpetrating “heinous war crimes”

23:55 Egypt condemns Israel’s “clear violation of international law”

Wednesday October 18th

00:39 The IDF issues an official denial of involvement in the blast at the hospital

01:31 Saudi Arabia condemns Israel’s “flagrant violation of all international laws and norms”

11:40 President Joe Biden meets Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, in Tel Aviv and claims "the other
team" was responsible for the blast

17:47 A spokesperson for America's National Security Council says Israel was not responsible for the blast

Source: News reports

The explosion happened in the hospital car park. The number of casualties
remains unconfirmed, but Israel accused Hamas of inflating the count and the
initial death toll appears to have been exaggerated. An American intelligence
assessment obtained by cnn on October 19th estimated it to be between 100 and
300. Images from the scene show scores of bodies, but the exact number is
 impossible to verify. The blast appeared to create only a small crater, with much
of the damage apparently caused by fire.

Many experts believe that the nature of the explosion does not suggest an Israeli
strike, given that those typically cause greater structural damage around the
point of impact. Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank
in London, has said that the damage appears more consistent with that caused by
a failed rocket than the types of munitions used by Israeli forces. Other experts
say that much of the damage may have been caused by rocket propellant rather
than an explosive warhead. Israeli drone footage of the hospital after the incident
shows that most buildings remain intact—although a doctor in the hospital said
that the ceiling of the operating room where he was working caved in. The
images of burned out cars could suggest a fallen rocket and a fire made worse by
its fuel.

Ahli Arab hospital courtyard

Cemetery

Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza city after the explosion image: maxar

Israel says it was not carrying out strikes near the hospital at the time of the blast.
The Israel Defence Forces (idf) said that its military radar systems, which track
rocket fire from Gaza, showed that rockets were fired from close to the hospital at
18:59 on October 17th. These claims have not been independently verified.
 American officials have told news outlets that they collected signals intelligence
and data from infra-red sensors aboard satellites and reached the same
conclusion as Israel.

image: mohammed al masri/reuters

The idf also released an audio recording of an intercepted phone call which it
claims is between two Hamas operatives, discussing the possibility that a rocket
fired by pij was responsible. The identity of these men has not been verified and
some observers have noted that they speak Arabic without a Gazan accent. They
appear to be relaying second-hand information: one man is surprised to hear pij
blamed for the blast, and the other responds that “they are saying” pij is
responsible. It is not clear who “they” refers to.

The fallout from the blast has been immense. Within hours protests had broken
out across the Arab world, including in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya and Tunisia. Jordan
swiftly cancelled a summit it was due to host in Amman, its capital, with
President Biden and Palestinian and Egyptian leaders. Turkey declared three days
of national mourning. And arguments over the blast have set back efforts to agree
on a deal to get aid into the strip. That will bring yet more suffering for civilians
in Gaza. 7

More from The Economist explains

 What is Palestinian Islamic Jihad?
Israel blames the group for a deadly
explosion at a hospital in Gaza

What is Hizbullah?
The Iran-backed militia has long resented
Israel

What evidence reveals about the

Gaza hospital blast’s source How China’s Belt and Road
Initiative is changing
The damage points to a malfunctioning rocket, not
an air strike The many motivations behind Xi Jinping’s
key foreign policy

Subscribe Reuse our content Help and contact us

Group subscriptions The Trust Project

Keep updated

Published since September 1843 to take part in “a severe contest

between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid
ignorance obstructing our progress.”

The Economist The Economist Group

About The Economist Group Economist Education Courses

Advertise Economist Intelligence Which MBA?
Press centre Economist Impact Executive Jobs
Economist Events Executive Education Navigator
Working Here

Terms of Use Privacy Cookie Policy Manage Cookies Accessibility Modern Slavery Statement Sitemap

California: Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2023. All rights reserved.