2020 IEEE IAS Industrial and Commercial Power System Asia Technical Conference

Evaluating the Reliability Value of Distributed

PV+Storage against Household Blackout

Yimeng Sun Jie Gao Jianxiao Wang* Ziyang Huang

School of Electrical and
Electronic Engineering
North China Electric Power
University
Beijing, China
Automotive Technology and School of Electrical and
Research Center Co. Ltd Electronic Engineering
Tianjin, China North China Electric Power
gaoj0826@163.com University
Beijing, China
wangjx@ncepu.edu.cn
School of Electrical and
Electronic Engineering
North China Electric Power
University
Beijing, China

Gengyin Li Ming Zhou

School of Electrical and
Electronic Engineering
North China Electric Power
University
Beijing, China
School of Electrical and
Electronic Engineering
North China Electric Power
University
Beijing, China

Abstract—Distributed energy resource (DER) has been proven as
an effective and promising solution to enhance power system
resilience and improve household-level reliability. In this paper,
we propose a method for evaluating the reliability value of
photovoltaic (PV) + battery storage system (BSS) when
considering the probability of grid outages leading to household
blackouts. Considering such reliability value, economic profit and
capital cost of PV+BSS, a simple formula is derived to calculate
the optimal planning strategy. This strategy can provide
household-level customers with a simple and straightforward
expression of invested PV+BSS capacity. Based on 600 households
in 8 zones of the U.S. from 2006 to 2015, case studies demonstrate
that by adding reliability value on top of economic profit,
households can invest in larger PV+BSS to avoid loss of load
caused by blackouts. Due to the difference in blackout hours, the
households from 8 zones show distinct willingness to install
PV+BSS. In the northwest, for example, PV+BSS can offer
households with the maximum annual reliability value and total
revenue up to $251.13 and $115.48, respectively.
Keywords—battery storage, distributed generation planning,
household blackouts, reliability value, realistic dataset
I. INTRODUCTION
Large-scale gird outages are caused by a variety of events,
including extreme natural disasters, power system failures,
vandalism, mis-operation and even terrorist attacks. According
to the report released by the North American Electric Reliability
Council (NERC), although sustained efforts were made to
improve reliability of grid, there had not been a significant
downward trend in the number of gird outages in US from 1984
to 2006 [1].
This work was supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of
China (No. 51907064), in part by China State Key Lab. of Power System
(SKLD19KM09), and in part by State Grid Corporation of China(1400-
202024222A-0-0-00).(Corresponding author: J. Wang, wangjx@ncepu.edu.cn)
Grid outages caused by extreme events are low-probability
but harmful, which accompanies millions of households’ power
supply cutoff. More and more attentions are paid to the concept
of “resilience” by academia since the hurricane Sandy caused
more than 6.5 million households in the eastern United States
cutoff in 2012. Resilience describes the ability that the power
system mitigates losses after outages and restores normal power
supply as soon as possible [2]. As an important approach to
improve the resilience of gird, PV+BSS has been increasingly
installed in recent years. When grid outages happen due to
extreme events, batteries can supply power sorted by PV
previously to households compared with no power supplied by
conventional generators, which can improve grid resilience and
achieve self-sufficiency for households. For example, since
blackouts due to extreme weather often happen in Borrego
Springs Microgrid, the community in San Diego, California,
PV+BSS is also introduced to effectively ensure the reliability
[3]. In [4], a multi-energy transportation system is proposed to
make contributions to the grid resilience under extreme
conditions. In [6], a multi-energy micro-grid power supply
strategy includes wind turbines, PV and battery storage is
proposed to ensure that as much critical load as possible can
restore after outages. By simulating the self-consumption in
Europe, [7] demonstrates that PV or battery storage unit
contributes to the reliability of households, but the
implementation of full off-grid operation still needs effort.
Existing research has begun to focus on evaluating the value
of battery storage, especially its reliability value. In [5], power
capacity accessibility and energy capacity accessibility are used
to measure the influence of PV+BSS on resilience, and then the
location scheme for PV and battery storage is proposed. The
authors in [8] point out that for small-scale dwellings, investing
in battery storage is profitable in the case of low costs. In [9], a

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siting and sizing model is formulated on condition that the loss- TABLE I AVERAGE OUTAGE DURATION IN THE UNITED STATES
of-load penalty fee is used to quantify the reliability. In [10], Region Average outage duration (min)
based on the users’ payment willingness model, the optimal 0 Span Sates or unknown 70.1
configuration method of BESS is studied to improve the 1 Northeast 74.5
reliability of the distribution network under N-1 fault. In [11], 2 Mid-Atlantic 115.3
each user's willingness on investing in PV+BSS and reliability 3 Southeast 85.4
4 Midwest 65.1
cost are taken into account. An evaluation system is developed 5 Southwest 41.8
in [12] to assess the economic benefits of households with 6 South 100.3
distributed energy resource (DER) integration. And through the 7 Northeast 127.9
case of IEEE 14 bus and 118 bus system, investing in DER The probability mentioned above is denoted by p, which
brings smaller home operating costs and higher generation can be obtained from the average outage time:
flexibility. Based on the reliability and economic value, an
evaluation plan for households’ battery storage investment is tavr
p , (1)
proposed in [13]. Nevertheless, this plan has not yet detailed ttotal
modeling the probability of extreme events leading to household
blackouts and does not reflect the differences in different regions where ttotal=8760 h is the total time of one year.
on battery storage investment. Based on (1), we obtain the probability of household
To fill the aforementioned gaps, we propose a method for blackouts from 2006 to 2015 in eight different regions of the
United States. The result is visually reflected in Fig. 1, and depth
evaluating the reliability value of photovoltaic (PV) + battery
storage system (BSS) when considering the probability of grid of color indicates the sizes of p.
outages leading to household blackouts. The contributions of
this paper are summarized as follows: i) A simple formula is
derived to calculate the optimal planning strategy. This strategy
can provide household-level customers with a simple and
straightforward expression of invested PV+BSS capacity. ii) We
collect realistic datasets from 600 households in 8 zones of the
U.S. from 2006 to 2015, and conduct case studies to demonstrate
household-level customers’ willingness to invest in PV+BSS
against loss of load caused by blackouts.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section II,
we provide data description. In Section III, the formulation of
optimal PV+BSS planning is developed. In Section IV, we Fig. 1. The probability of household blackouts from 2006 to 2015.
derive the analytical expression of the solution to PV+BSS
installed capacity. Section V shows the case studies based on III. MODEL FORMULATION
realistic datasets. Section VI concludes this paper. We assume that the individual household system in this
II. DATA DESCRIPTION paper is a collection with electrical load, PV and battery storage
[15]. Different household system is unrelated. Therefore,
When power grid outages happen due to extreme events, individual system can be analyzed separately after blackouts
PV+BSS can help households achieve its self-sufficiency. In caused by an extreme event.
this paper, to further measure the reliability value of PV+BSS,
we use average outage time to calculate the probability of grid Take the time interval as ∆T=1h. The whole day is divided
outages, which is available by National Electric Energy Testing into two time periods, namely the daytime period (6:00~19:00)
Research and Applications Center (NEETRAC). and the nighttime period (19:00~24:00, 0:00~6:00), with TnǃTd
representing the daytime and nighttime respectively.
To help electric utilities solving the problems of efficiency
and reliability in transmission and distribution, NEETRAC A. Household
publishes the reliability analysis result as “Baseline Project 17- At first, three parts of a household system are simply
048” [14], whose data on outages during the decade from 2006 modeled respectively.
to 2015 is available from IEEE. Annual customers’ reliability
data is collected by IEEE’s Distribution Reliability Work Group According to historical data, the electrical load in general
(DRWG). households can be obtained, which counted in hours is denoted
by l(t). Then the accumulated load during the daytime (Ld) and
Average annual outage duration is an important indicator for nighttime (Ln) is:
assessing grid reliability. To show differences between regions,
we divided the United States into eight regions, and TABLE Ⅰ
shows the average annual outage duration for these regions from
Ld ³tTd
l t dt , Ln ³
tTn
l t dt , (2)
2006 to 2015, which is derived from actual historical data. After installing PV, households can not only achieve self-
sufficiency, but also send extra power to grid. Based on
historical data as well, the output per hour of PV battery with
1kW capacity can be achieved, which denoted by pPV(t).

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Therefore, the total daytime output of a PV battery with Kp
capacity is:
P PV K p ¦ p PV (t ) PpKp .
tTd
For purpose of reducing sophistication of model, we
simplify the part of battery storage. Kb represents the energy
capacity of household battery storage, as the discharge of depth
(DOD) is denoted by μb. Ignore the dynamic charge and
discharge process, thus the actual usable capacity of storage is
shown as μbKb.
B. Investment Problem
In PV+BSS, the decision variables for individual household
investor are Kp and Kb. Take economic value, reliability value
and facility cost of PV+BSS into consideration to evaluate
whether it is worth investing. Therefore, the optimal investment
can be obtained by solving the following planning:
max I K p , Kb CE K p , Kb  CR K p , Kb  CF K p , Kb ,(4)
K p , Kb t 0
where CE represents economic value; CR represents reliability
value; CF represents facility cost and I represents the revenue of
a household relying on PV+BSS after blackouts.
Households can profit by using or selling electricity from
PV+BSS, which is the embodiment of the economic value. CE
is approximately proportional to Kp and Kb:
CE ( K p , Kb ) D p K p  Db Kb ,
where αp and αb are the annual economic value of PV+BSS with
per unit capacity.
The facility cost is also proportional to capacity. In addition,
one-time fixed cost which includes site, labor is also taken into
account. To make profit prominent after installation, it is
necessary to discount the one-time fixed cost, then facility cost
is expressed as:
CF ( K p , Kb ) E p K p  Eb Kb  J p sgn( K p )  J b sgn( Kb ) , (6)澳
where γp, γb are the one-time fixed cost for PV+BSS.
Fig. 2 shows the reliability value realization mechanism of
PV+BSS after blackouts. The left figure shows the loss of
household load represented by ΔL(0, 0) when PV+BSS not
exists.
'L(0, 0) Ld  Ln .
Fig. 2. The reliability value realization mechanism.
In the left figure in Fig. 2, the reliability value is reflected in
the following two points:
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ķ During the daytime, only PV provides electricity to the
household, while the loss of load is:
(3) 'Ld ( K p , Kb ) max ^Ld  P p K p ,0` , (8)
Extra solar energy is stored in the battery storage once Ld is
small or μpKp is large. Taking the capacity limitation of the
battery storage into account, the stored energy of battery storage
during Td is expressed as:
Ls K p , Kb min{max ^P p K p  Ld ,0` , Pb Kb } . (9)
ĸ During the nighttime, battery storage releases its daytime
stored energy to supply nighttime load. Thus, the lost load in this
period can be expressed correspondingly as:
'Ln ( K p , Kb ) max ^Ln  Ls ,0` , (10)
Therefore, the reliability value of PV+BSS with capacity of
(Kp, Kb) can be measured by amount of avoided losing load.
CR ( K p , K b ) pS R ª¬ 'L(0, 0)  'Ld ( K p , K b )  'Ln ( K p , K b ) º¼
pS R ª¬ min ^P p K p , Ld `  min ^Ls , Ln `º¼
pS R ª¬ min ^P p K p , Ld `  min ^max{P p K p  Ld ,0},Pb K b , Ln `º¼
,(11)
where p is the probability mentioned in (1); πR is the unit value
of the losing load of a household (VOLL).
(5) From (4), (5), (6) and (11), final expression of individual
household revenue on PV+BSS can be easily derived as:
I (D p  E p ) K p  (D b  Eb ) Kb  J p sgn( K p )  J b sgn( Kb )
 pS R ª¬ min ^P p K p , Ld `  min ^max{P p K p  Ld ,0},Pb Kb , Ln `º¼
.(12)
In next section, we will discuss the maximum value of this
expression in each case from a mathematical point of view.
IV. MODEL ANALYSIS
It is obvious in (12) that I is a binary linear function on (Kp,
Kb), where the domain of Kp and Kb are both [0, +∞). Since I is
piecewise linear, it is not derivable at its extreme points.
Therefore, this section discusses the function piecewisely to find
out optimal investment strategy (K*p , K*b ) and maximum revenue
Imax.
To highlight the effect of reliability value, we assume that
(7) lp=αp−βp<0, lb=αb−βb<0, additionally let l'p=αp−βp+pπRμp and l'
b=αb−βb+pπRμb, whose Positive and negative will be discussed.
Therefore, under different value of Kp and Kb, the value of I are
as TABLE Ⅱ.
A. KpKb=0
Due to the discontinuity of the symbol function sgn(∙), the
situation needs to be discussed when either of Kp and Kb equals
to 0. According to the value of I in the first row and the first
column of TABLE Ⅱ, it can be deduced that since lb<0, I
decreases as Kb increases from 0 and I1=I(0, 0)=0 is the only
maximum value. While along the direction that Kp increases
from 0, the final slope is lp<0. If l'b<0, I1 is the maximum value
of I, and if l'b>0, then I2=I(Ld/μp, 0) is the maximum value.
547
 TABLE II THE VALUE OF I VARIES WITH Kp AND Kb
I Kp (Ld/μp,
0 (0, Ld/μp] ((Ld+Ln)/μp, +∞)
Kb (Ld+Ln)/μp]
0 0 l'pKp−γp lpKp−γp+pπRLd
[(0, Ln/μb] lpKp−γp+l'bKb−γb +pπR Ld
(Ln/μb, lbKb−γb l'pKp−γp+lbKb−γb
lpKp−γp+lbKb−γb+pπR(Ld+Ln)
+∞)

B. KpKb≠0
Fig. 4. 1-kW PV output in one year.
At this time, I takes the rest of the TABLE Ⅱ, which can be
regarded that three planes in the space rectangular coordinate In fact, Fig. 3 reveals the law of Ld and Ln, while Fig. 4
system (Kp, Kb, I) intersect at the point ((Ld+Ln)/μp, Ln/μb, I3), demonstrates the distribution of μp, which are both necessary
where I3=I((Ld+Ln)/μp, Ln/μb). Obviously, the maximum value is
parameters for further calculation according to (13).
at most I3.
In addition, take μb=1 to make full use of the capacity of
Combine the above two discussions, there are three possible battery storage and take πR=11.96 $/kWh [18] to emphasize the
situations for the optimal strategy and the corresponding value of lost load. Other relative parameters are set as TABLE
maximum value of I are I1, I2 and I3. Ⅲ [19][20]. All parameters are presented by day, especially one-
­(0, 0), l ' p d 0, I 3 d 0 time fixed cost are discounted according to payback period.
° Once optimal investment strategy (K*p , K*b ) is determined, daily
®( Ld /P p , 0), l ' p t 0, I 3 d I 2
* *
(K , K )
p b , (13) and annual CR and Imax can be calculated in turn.
°(( Ld  Ln )/P p , Ln /Pb ), I 3 t I 2 , I 3 t 0
¯
TABLE III RELATIVE PARAMETERS OF PV+BSS
­ I1 0, l ' p d 0, I 3 d 0 Economic value Facility cost One-time fixed cost
° I =l L /P  J  pS L , l ' t 0, I d I
° 2 p d p p R d p 3 2 PV αp=0.1226 $/kW βp=0.1323 $/kW γp=0.1090 $
I max ® I =l L  L /P  J  l L /P  J . (14) Battery αb=0.1350 $/kWh βb=0.1360 $/kWh γb=0.1557 $
° 3 p d n p p b n b b

°¯ pS R Ld  Ln , I 3 t I 2 , I 3 t 0 B. Regional Difference

In this part, we calculate the optimal capacity of PV and
V. CASE STUDIES battery storage for eight regions according to (13). The optimal
Based on the actual historical load data of 600 households investment strategy of PV+BSS systems are shown in shown in
and empirical data of PV output, this section calculates optimal Fig. 5 and Fig. 6, respectively. It is worth mentioning that we
investment strategy for each household and their corresponding only study regional differences in this part, so the average
annual reliability value and revenue assuming that PV+BSS has probability from 2006 to 2015 for each region is used for
already been installed. In V-A, the data and parameter settings calculation.
are detailed. In V-B and V-C, we will compare the Xlabel: Storage capacity (kW)
spatiotemporal investment strategies. Ylabel: User number
A. Data and Parameter
Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 show the load data of 600 households and
1-kW PV output, respectively. The load data in forms of
cumulative distribution function (CDF) obtained from [16] is
presented in daytime and nighttime periods. Similarly, PV
output data of whole year is achieved from [17] and counted in
CDF as well, from which figure we can see PV output has a trend
to increase first and then decrease during daytime.
From Fig. 3, we can see load in daytime is much larger than
that in nighttime, which reveals significance of PV and battery
storage time-sharing operation.

Fig. 5. Optimal investment strategy of PV in different regions.

Based on the optimal investment strategy, annual reliability

value and total revenue of PV+BSS are shown in TABLE Ⅳ. In
Fig. 3. The CDFs of load of 600 households in daytime and nighttime. Fig. 7, it can be seen visually that the reliability value of each

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region is positively correlated with the probability of blackouts. different investment strategy for household investors. Therefore,
Region 7 has the highest median value of CR which reaches not only the regional differences, but also the temporal
$251.17 with the highest probability of outages where local differences should be studied. Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 shows the
households are most worthy of PV+BSS investment. The optimal PV+BSS capacity in eight regions of the United States
median value of (K *p , K *b ) in Region 7 are 12.91kW and from 2006 to 2015, where the thickness of the line indicates the
16.62kWh, respectively. Under the optimal investment strategy, investment strategy.
the median value of Imax is $115.48, which means half of resident
who have PV+BSS can benefit more than $115.48 per year.
However, Region 5 has the lowest median value of CR which
drops to $81.64 even its under optimal investment strategy.
Correspondingly, the median value of (K*p , K*b ) are 10.06 kW
and 15.30 kWh, and the median value of Imax is only $26.04.
Xlabel: Solar capacity (kW)
Ylabel: User number

Fig. 8. Investment strategy of BSS in different regions and years.

Fig. 6. Optimal investment strategy of PV in different regions.

TABLE IV RELIABILITY VALUE AND TOTAL REVENUE OF PV+BSS

Region Reliability value ($) Total revenue ($)

0 137.03 55.10
1 145.89 59.87
2 226.78 102.58
3 166.60 70.93
4 126.82 49.71
5 81.64 26.04
6 195.81 86.37
7 251.17 115.48
Fig. 9. Investment strategy of PV in different regions and years.

Under the optimal investment decision (K*p , K*b ), CR and Imax

Fig. 7. Reliability value of PV+BSS in different regions.
C. Annual Difference
Actually, the probability of grid outages leading to
household blackouts (p) varies with years, which results
in the same region are not identical in different years as shown
in Fig. 10. Since p varies annual, the investments of PV+BSS in
different regions also presents annual differences. As mentioned
earlier, p represents the annual outage duration. In Fig. 11, the
longer the annual outage duration, the larger the reliability value
brought by the investment of PV+BSS. For example, Region 4
has the longest outage duration in 2007 that CR and Imax reach
maximum with the median value of $260.08 and $120.18,
respectively. The shortest blackouts occurred in 2013 while the
CR and Imax in this year drop to $48.82 and $9.77. Region 5 is
not worth investing in 2008 and 2012 on condition that
reliability value drop to 0 due to the short annual outage duration.

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Fig. 10. Median of annual reliability value and total revenue of PV+BSS in
different regions and years.
Fig. 11. The relationship between median of reliable value of PV+BSS and
annual outage duration.
VI. CONCLUSION
In this paper, a reliability value evaluation model of
distributed PV+BSS considering the probability of grid outages
is proposed. Case studies based on 10-year historical load data
from eight regions in the United States demonstrate that i) the
proposed model can comprehensively consider the economic
and reliability values of PV+BSS, which offers advice for
residents in extreme weather regions; ii) regional differences can
be observed from the results of the reliability value and
investment strategy of PV+BSS. The reliability value is
particularly high in the region where the annual outage duration
is long. Among the eight regions in the United States, Region 7
has the longest annual outage duration and the highest reliability
value reaching $251.17; and iii) the simulations also show
difference in annual results. Due to the longest annual outage
duration in 2006, 2007 and 2010 of Region 7, the reliability
value of the PV+BSS is high, reaching $183.68, $170.31 and
$89.86, respectively.
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In our future work, two issues deserve further study: i)
Consider the sharing scheme for battery storage between
households. ii) A comprehension model needs to be studied
which considers detailed physical process of battery storage
such as charge, discharge and loss.
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