Political Studies 285

Lecture 7c:
Sampling error

Week 7
Winter 2023
Sampling error

The quality of our inferences depends upon on the (1) validity and
(2) reliability of our sampling procedures.
Sampling error

The quality of our inferences depends upon on the (1) validity and
(2) reliability of our sampling procedures.

This lecture, we’ll distinguish between two types of sampling error

Sampling error

The quality of our inferences depends upon on the (1) validity and
(2) reliability of our sampling procedures.

This lecture, we’ll distinguish between two types of sampling error

I Systematic sampling error, which affects the validity of our
estimates
Sampling error

The quality of our inferences depends upon on the (1) validity and
(2) reliability of our sampling procedures.

This lecture, we’ll distinguish between two types of sampling error

I Systematic sampling error, which affects the validity of our
estimates
I Non-systematic or random sampling error, which refers to the
precision or reliability of our estimates
Sampling

Sampling is a three-step process, in which the researcher:

Sampling

Sampling is a three-step process, in which the researcher:

1. identifies a target population

Sampling

Sampling is a three-step process, in which the researcher:

1. identifies a target population

2. identifies a sampling frame (a list of population units or a
procedure for identifying those units)
Sampling

Sampling is a three-step process, in which the researcher:

1. identifies a target population

2. identifies a sampling frame (a list of population units or a
procedure for identifying those units)
3. and samples from that frame
Non-systematic error

Non-systematic sampling error you know (see lecture on central

limit theorem). It occurs when sample statistics deviate from
population parameters by chance.
Non-systematic error

Non-systematic sampling error you know (see lecture on central

limit theorem). It occurs when sample statistics deviate from
population parameters by chance.

Key factors:
Non-systematic error

Non-systematic sampling error you know (see lecture on central

limit theorem). It occurs when sample statistics deviate from
population parameters by chance.

Key factors:
I sample size
Non-systematic error

Non-systematic sampling error you know (see lecture on central

limit theorem). It occurs when sample statistics deviate from
population parameters by chance.

Key factors:
I sample size
I population variance or heterogeneity
Non-systematic error

Non-systematic sampling error you know (see lecture on central

limit theorem). It occurs when sample statistics deviate from
population parameters by chance.

Key factors:
I sample size
I population variance or heterogeneity

If non-systematic error is high, we say our estimates are unreliable.

Systematic error

Systematic sampling error is different. It’s when sample statistics

deviate from population parameters because of biased sampling
procedures.
Systematic error

Systematic sampling error is different. It’s when sample statistics

deviate from population parameters because of biased sampling
procedures.

These biases have a variety of sources, including:

Systematic error

Systematic sampling error is different. It’s when sample statistics

deviate from population parameters because of biased sampling
procedures.

These biases have a variety of sources, including:

I coverage bias
I non-response bias
I non-probability or non-random sampling
Systematic error

Systematic sampling error is different. It’s when sample statistics

deviate from population parameters because of biased sampling
procedures.

These biases have a variety of sources, including:

I coverage bias
I non-response bias
I non-probability or non-random sampling

If systematic error is present, our estimates are systematically too

high or too low. And we say our estimates are biased or invalid.
Coverage bias

Caused by slippage between population and sampling frame.

Coverage bias

Caused by slippage between population and sampling frame.

Example: The researcher samples from a phone book. The phone

book is an incomplete sampling frame. It systematically
under-represents certain groups, including the young and poor.
Those groups are less likely to be sampled as a result.
Non-response bias

Caused by failure or refusal of certain subjects to participate in

study.
Non-response bias

Caused by failure or refusal of certain subjects to participate in

study.

Example: Pro-life students were less likely than pro-choice students

to participate in a survey on attitudes toward abortion.
Non-probability or non-random samples

Probability sample: all units of a population have some known

non-zero probability of being sampled
Non-probability or non-random samples

Probability sample: all units of a population have some known

non-zero probability of being sampled

Equal probability sample (what KW call a random sample):

each unit has an equal chance of being sampled
Non-probability or non-random samples

Probability sample: all units of a population have some known

non-zero probability of being sampled

Equal probability sample (what KW call a random sample):

each unit has an equal chance of being sampled

Non-probability sample: Sample isn’t collected by ways suggested

by probability theory. Convenience samples are an example.