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THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
This page intentionally left blank
 THE IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
A Comprehensive Study
of Physical, Biophysical, Social,
and Political Issues

Edited by

TREVOR M. LETCHER
Laurel House, Stratton on the Fosse, Bath, United Kingdom
Elsevier
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 Contents

Contributors ix 6 Energy impacts 42

7 Equity impacts 44
Preface xi 8 Conclusion 46
References 47
A
Introduction
B
1. Why discuss the impacts of climate Physical impacts
change?
Trevor M. Letcher 3. Climate change and melting glaciers
Maria Shahgedanova
1 Introduction 3
2 The greenhouse effect 4 1 Introduction 53
3 Global warming 6 2 Mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets and GMSL
4 Feedback mechanisms to further increase the change 54
heating of the planet 9 3 Observing glacier change 56
5 Other possible causes of climate change 9 4 Observed changes in the state of ice sheets and
6 Urgent action is required 10 glaciers 60
7 Our present situation 12 5 Contribution to global mean sea level change 73
8 Global warming, climate change, and the new 6 Synthesis and outlook 75
pandemic—COVID-19 14 References 76
9 How global warming affects society 15
10 Conclusions 15 4. Climate change and terrestrial
References 16
biodiversity
Further reading 17
Rachel Warren, Jeff Price, and Rhosanna Jenkins

2. Impacts of climate change on economies, 1 Introduction 86

ecosystems, energy, environments, and 2 Major shifts in biomes 87
human equity: A systems perspective 3 Major loss of species geographical ranges 91
Daniel P. Loucks 4 Changes in phenology 95
5 Changes in extreme weather 97
1 Introduction 20 6 Miscellaneous mechanisms 99
2 Climate change 20 7 Geographical implications 100
3 Ecosystem impacts 28 8 Synthesis 104
4 Economic impacts 34 9 Solutions 105
5 Environmental impacts 39 References 108

v
vi Contents

5. Effect of climate change on marine 4 Changes in marine food webs 212

ecosystems 5 Changes in ocean ecosystem production 213
6 Consequences for fisheries and seafood
Phillip Williamson and Valeria A. Guinder
production 217
1 How climate change affects marine ecosystems 116 7 Challenges for fisheries management and ocean
2 Climate change impacts on shallow coastal governance 220
ecosystems 127 8 Marine conservation strategies for climate change
3 Ecosystem impacts in shelf seas and the open mitigation 222
ocean 140 Acknowledgments 224
4 Conclusions 152 References 224
References 154
9. Effect of climate change on food
6. Natural disasters linked to climate change production (animal products)
Raktima Dey and Sophie C. Lewis Haorui Wu and Florence Etienne

1 Introduction 177 1 Introduction 233

2 Temperature related disasters 179 2 Climate change and animal food productions 235
3 Bushfires 181 3 Animal production impacts climate change 238
4 Sea-level increase 183 4 Effect of animal production and climate change on
5 Extreme rainfall events and disasters 184 human health and well-being 242
6 Compound events 188 5 Conclusion: A green future awaits everyone! 247
7 Summary and concluding remarks 189 References 247
References 189
10. Emerging typology and framing of
7. Climate change and microbes climate-resilient agriculture in South Asia
Stanley Maloy Rajesh S. Kumar, Shilpi Kundu, Bishwajit Kundu, N.K. Binu, and
M. Shaji
1 Introduction 195
2 Does 1–2° matter? 196 1 Introduction 256
3 Generation of greenhouse gases 196 2 Data, method, and analysis 258
4 Altered geographical distribution of insect 3 Results and discussion 259
vectors 196 4 Conclusions and suggestions 278
5 Altered precipitation 198 References 279
6 Elevated ocean temperature 200
7 Changes in biodiversity 200
8 One Health 200
C
9 Take-home points 202 Social impacts
Acknowledgments 202
References 202 11. Social issues related to climate change
Web references 203
and food production (crops)
Thandi F. Khumalo
8. Effects of climate change on food
production (fishing) 1 Introduction 291
Heike K. Lotze, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, and Daniel G. Boyce 2 The impact of climate change on agriculture in
Southern Africa 292
1 Introduction 205 3 Botswana 293
2 Biological changes in marine organisms 207 4 Eswatini 295
3 Changes in species distribution and 5 Lesotho 296
abundance 209 6 Malawi 298
 Contents vii
7 Mozambique 299 12 Conclusion 375
8 Republic of South Africa 301 References 376
9 Zambia 302
10 Zimbabwe 303 15. Managing urban climate change risks:
11 Discussion 304 Prospects for using green infrastructure to
12 Conclusion 308
increase urban resilience to floods
References 309
Juliana Reu Junqueira, Silvia Serrao-Neumann, and Iain White
Further reading 311
1 Introduction 379
12. Climate change and world population 2 The potential of green infrastructure for increasing
Jane O’Sullivan urban resilience to floods 381
3 Barriers to incorporating green infrastructure into
1 Introduction 313 urban planning 387
2 The human population in the 21st century 314 4 Going forward 388
3 How will climate change affect demography? 325 5 Conclusion 390
4 Demographic influences on vulnerability to climate References 391
change impacts 333
5 The influence of population change on climate
16. Effect of climate change on the
change and its mitigation 337
6 Conclusions 341 insurance sector
References 342 Adam D. Krauss

1 Introduction 397
13. Assessing the social and economic 2 Climate change science—The basics 398
impacts of sea-level rise at a global scale— 3 Climate change data and accountability 400
State of knowledge and challenges 4 Climate change litigation 407
A.T. Vafeidis, C. Wolff, and S. Santamaria-Aguilar 5 Climate change damages 415
6 The insurance coverage implications of climate
1 Introduction 351 change 420
2 Global vulnerability, impact and risk assessments— 7 Insurance market reaction and preparedness 431
Methods and data 354 8 Closing thoughts 434
3 Results of impact studies 355
4 Conclusions and ways forward 360 17. Game theory and climate change
References 361 David Mond

14. Societal adaptation to climate change 1 Introduction 437

Julie L. Drolet
2 Model games and climate change 439
References 451
1 Adaptation to climate change 365
2 Social development 367 18. Urban life and climate change
3 Indigenous knowledge systems and practices 367 Tobias Emilsson
4 Adaptation and mitigation 368
5 Impacts of climate change 368 1 Introduction 453
6 Extreme weather events 368 2 Urban climate 454
7 Vulnerability to climate risks 370 3 Urban climate and water 456
8 Neoliberalism and climate denial 373 4 Mitigating the negative effects of climate
9 Environmental and climate justice 374 change 457
10 New vision of “development” 374 5 Conclusion 459
11 Transformative change 375 References 459
viii Contents

D 22. Climate change and the law

John F. McEldowney
Political impacts
1 Introduction 503
19. Security implications of climate change: 2 Climate change law and regulation 504
The climate-conflict nexus 3 Climate change and agriculture 508
4 Climate change and fisheries 509
Elisabeth Lio Rosvold
5 Climate change and housing 510
1 Introduction 465 6 Climate change and aviation 510
2 Defining the concepts 466 7 Climate change and shipping 512
3 The evolution of the climate-conflict nexus 468 8 Climate justice 513
4 The way ahead: Past change predicting future 9 Climate change litigation 513
uncertainties 473 10 Conclusions 518
References 474 References 518

23. The ethics of measuring climate change

20. Climate change governance: impacts
Responding to an existential crisis Kian Mintz-Woo
Heike Schroeder and Yuka Kobayashi
1 Introduction 521
1 Introduction 479 2 Factual assumptions 522
2 What is governance in the context of climate 3 Moral assumptions 526
change? 480 4 Conclusion 532
3 Multilevel governance of climate change 481 References 533
4 Actors and actor networks 482
5 Rule-making systems 484 24. Climate change and refugees
6 Formal and informal rules 485
John F. McEldowney and Julie L. Drolet
7 Conclusion 486
References 486 1 Climate refugees and the law 537
Further reading 489 2 Climate refugees and the European Union 538
3 The United Nation’s International Organization
21. Justice and climate change for Migration 540
Steve Vanderheiden 4 Forced displacement 541
5 Environmental migration 541
1 Introduction 491 6 Planned relocation 542
2 Justice and the climate treaty 492 7 Climate change and conflict 542
3 Mitigation, equity, and carbon budgets 494 8 Canada’s immigration and refugee policy 543
4 Adaptation and differentiated responsibility 496 9 Climate justice 543
5 Climate change, justice, and human rights 497 10 Conclusions 544
6 Conclusion: Putting climate justice into References 544
practice 499
References 500 Index 547
 Contributors
N.K. Binu College of Forestry, Kerala
Agricultural University, Thrissur, India
Daniel G. Boyce Ocean Frontier Institute,
Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz Department of
Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS,
Canada
Raktima Dey Fenner School of Environment
and Society, Australian National University,
Canberra, ACT, Australia
Julie L. Drolet Faculty of Social Work,
University of Calgary, Edmonton, AB, Canada
Tobias Emilsson Department of Landscape
Architecture, Planning and Management,
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,
Alnarp, Sweden
Florence Etienne Independent Researcher,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Valeria A. Guinder Argentine Institute of
Oceanography, National Scientific and
Technical Research Council, Bahı́a Blanca,
Argentina
Rhosanna Jenkins Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, University of East Anglia,
Norwich, United Kingdom
Thandi F. Khumalo Department of
Sociology and Social Work, University of
Eswatini, Kwaluseni Campus, Kwaluseni,
Eswatini
Yuka Kobayashi Department of Politics and
International Studies, SOAS, London, United
Kingdom
Adam D. Krauss Traub Lieberman Straus &
Shrewsberry LLP, Hawthorne, NY, United States
Rajesh S. Kumar Indian Forest Service (IFS),
New Delhi, India
ix
Bishwajit Kundu Bangladesh Jute Research
Institute, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Shilpi Kundu Cities Research Institute & School
of Environment and Science, Griffith University,
Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Sher-e-Bangla
Agricultural University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Trevor M. Letcher Laurel House, Stratton on the
Fosse, Bath, United Kingdom
Sophie C. Lewis School of Science, University of
New South Wales, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Heike K. Lotze Department of Biology,
Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
Daniel P. Loucks Cornell University, Ithaca,
NY, United States
Stanley Maloy San Diego State University,
San Diego, CA, United States
John F. McEldowney School of Law, University
of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
Kian Mintz-Woo University Center for Human
Values and Princeton School of Public and
International Affairs, Princeton University,
Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of
Philosophy and Environmental Research
Institute, University College Cork, Cork,
Ireland
David Mond Mathematics Institute, University
of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
Jane O’Sullivan School of Agriculture and Food
Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia
Campus, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Jeff Price Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
United Kingdom
Juliana Reu Junqueira Environmental Planning
Programme, School of Social Sciences,
University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
x Contributors
Elisabeth Lio Rosvold Department of Peace and
Conflict Research, Uppsala University,
Uppsala; Department of Economic History
and International Relations, Stockholm
University, Stockholm, Sweden
S. Santamaria-Aguilar Coastal Risks and Sea-
Level Rise Research Group, Institute of
Geography, Christian-Albrechts University,
Kiel, Germany
Heike Schroeder School of International
Development; Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, University of East Anglia,
Norwich, United Kingdom
Silvia Serrao-Neumann Environmental Plann-
ing Programme, School of Social Sciences,
University of Waikato, Hamilton, New
Zealand; Cities Research Institute, Griffith
University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Maria Shahgedanova Department of Geogra-
phy and Environmental Sciences, University
of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
M. Shaji College of Forestry, Kerala Agricultu-
ral University, Thrissur, India
A.T. Vafeidis Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise
Research Group, Institute of Geography,
Christian-Albrechts University, Kiel,
Germany
Steve Vanderheiden Department of Political
Science, University of Colorado at Boulder,
Colorado, CO, United States
Rachel Warren Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, University of East Anglia,
Norwich, United Kingdom
Iain White Environmental Planning
Programme, School of Social Sciences,
University of Waikato, Hamilton, New
Zealand
Phillip Williamson University of East Anglia,
Norwich, United Kingdom
C. Wolff Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise
Research Group, Institute of Geography,
Christian-Albrechts University, Kiel,
Germany
Haorui Wu School of Social Work, Dalhousie
University, Halifax, NS, Canada
 Preface
The evidence that our climate is warming
is overwhelming. This evidence comes not
only from land and sea surface temperature
records but also from indicators such as the
coverage of Arctic sea ice—all of which, and
much more, is discussed in this book and in
related books: Climate Change 3rd edition
(Letcher, 2020) and Managing Global Warming
(Letcher, 2019). Most scientists in the world
now accept that anthropogenic activities
and specifically the emissions of greenhouse
gases are responsible for the major part of
the observed warming. May 9, 2013, was an
auspicious day for the warming of the planet,
when it was reported by both the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) and the Scripps Institute of Ocean-
ography that the daily mean concentration
of CO2 in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa labo-
ratory exceeded 400 ppm (400 μmol mol 1 or
400  10 6) for the first time in millions of
years. In June 2020, it was 417 ppm, with the
rate of increase accelerating each year. The
fundamental aim of this book is to alert the
public to these impacts so that adaptations
can be made to a world of increasing global
temperature. It is also a clarion call to do
something about global warming and ur-
gently reduce our dependence on fossil fuels
and embrace renewable forms of energy. This
book focuses mainly on the social and politi-
cal impacts of climate change.
We are regularly bombarded in the
media by the evidence of the physical im-
pacts of climate change; hurricanes, torna-
does, flooding, wash-aways, record high
temperatures, melting sea ice, glaciers and
xi
ice sheets, unpredicted and exceptional
weather patterns, acidic oceans, dying coral
beds, and fast increasing concentrations of
CO2 in the atmosphere. It is most likely that
the target of keeping global temperatures be-
low 1.5°C above the preindustrial age will be
breached and that we will have to accept a
much warmer world and all that means.
Projections of our global warming indicate
that the temperature will exceed the 2°C
global average regarded by many scientists
as the upper limit in temperature within the
next 50 years. If we do not take action to halt
this rise in temperature, we must expect the
serious consequences of extreme weather:
droughts, floods, winds, and storms. The
book is a urgent appeal to humans to take im-
mediate action to reduce the amount of CO2
that we are pumping into the atmosphere,
which arguably can best be accomplished
by reducing our dependency on fossil fuels.
We must strive to stop burning coal and oil
in our power stations with the ultimate aim
of keeping most of the fossil fuel in the
ground and find new, renewable ways of
producing electricity and propelling our
vehicles.
The book contains 24 chapters and is di-
vided into 4 sections:
• INTRODUCTION
• PHYSICAL and BIOPHYSICAL
IMPACTS
• SOCIAL IMPACTS
• POLITICAL IMPACTS
The audience we hope to reach are: policy
makers in local and central governments;
xii
students, teachers, researchers, professors,
scientists, engineers, and managers working
in fields related to climate change and future
energy options; editors and newspaper re-
porters responsible for informing the public;
and the general public who need to be aware
of the impending disasters that a warmer
Earth will bring. An introduction is provided
at the beginning of each chapter for those in-
terested in a brief synopsis, and copious ref-
erences are provided for those wishing to
study each chapter topic in greater detail.
Many of the authors were not involved in
recent assessments of the IPCC, and here
they present fresh evaluations of the evi-
dence testifying to a problem that was de-
scribed by Sir David King as the most
severe calamity our civilization has yet to
face (David, 2008).
The IPCC assessments have produced two
basic conclusions: firstly, that the current cli-
mate changes are unequivocal, and secondly,
that this is largely because of the emission of
greenhouse gases resulting from human ac-
tivity. This book reinforces these two conclu-
sions and the chapters on “Indicators of
Climate Change” and on the “Possible
Causes of Climate Change” are particularly
relevant. Furthermore, the section on
“Modeling of Climate Change” further sup-
ports these conclusions through simulations
of past climate changes and projections of fu-
ture climate.
The International System of Quantities (SI
units) has been used throughout the book,
and where necessary other units are given
in parentheses. Furthermore, the authors
have rigorously adhered to the IUPAC nota-
tion and spelling of physical quantities.
Preface
This book has the advantage that the chap-
ters have each been written by world-class
experts working in their respective fields.
As a result, this volume presents a balanced
picture across the whole spectrum of climate
change. Furthermore, the authors are
from both the developing and developed
countries, thus giving a worldwide pers-
pective of looming climatic problems. The
12 countries represented are: Australia,
Bangladesh, Canada, Germany, Ireland, India,
New Zealand, South Africa, Swaziland,
Sweden, The United Kingdom, and the
United States of America.
The success of the book ultimately rests
with the 34 authors and co-authors. As edi-
tor, I would like to thank all of them for their
cooperation and their highly valued, willing,
and enthusiastic contributions. I would also
like to thank my wife for her patience while
I wrote and edited this volume. Finally, my
thanks are due to Naomi Robertson of
Elsevier whose expertise steered this book
to its publication.
Trevor M. Letcher
Laurel House, Stratton on the Fosse,
Bath, United Kingdom
References
David, K.S., 2008. In: Letcher, T.M. (Ed.), Foreword to
Future Energy: Improved, Sustainable and Clean Op-
tions for Our Planet, first ed. Elsevier, Oxford, ISBN:
978-0-08-054808-1.
Letcher, T.M. (Ed.), 2020. Climate Change: Observed
Impacts on Planet Earth, third ed. Elsevier,
New York, USA, ISBN: 978-0-12-821575-3.
Letcher, T.M. (Ed.), 2019. Managing Global Warming:
An Interface of Technical and Human Issues.
Elsevier, Cambridge, MA, USA, ISBN: 978-0-12-
814104-5.
S E C T I O N A

Introduction
This page intentionally left blank
 C H A P T E R

1
Why discuss the impacts of climate
change?
Trevor M. Letcher
Laurel House, Stratton on the Fosse, Bath, United Kingdom

O U T L I N E

1. Introduction 3 7. Our present situation 12

2. The greenhouse effect 4 8. Global warming, climate change,
and the new pandemic—COVID-19 14
3. Global warming 6
9. How global warming affects society 15
4. Feedback mechanisms to further
increase the heating of the planet 9 10. Conclusions 15
5. Other possible causes of climate References 16
change 9
6. Urgent action is required 10

1 Introduction

The world is entering an unprecedented time of global warming which is affecting our cli-
mate on which we depend for our very existence. Global warming is causing changes in rain
and snow patterns; rising sea levels; increased severity and frequency of droughts, wildfires,
storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes; high temperatures and heatwaves and changes to our so-
cial fabric and political structures. Global warming is the most important calamitous change
our civilization has ever had to face. In another publication Climate Change 2nd edition
(Letcher, 2015), the physical and biological effects of rising global temperatures were
discussed but little was made of the effects on society and on human life. This book puts that
to right. These impacts which are now blatantly obvious become more and more important

The Impacts of Climate Change 3 Copyright # 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822373-4.00020-3
4 1. Why discuss the impacts of climate change?

with each passing year and are poised to change our lives and those of our children and their
children forever. We must plan our future with these changes in mind. This is the raison d’etre
for this volume.
Before reading the chapters in this book, it is important that we look at the origins and the
physics and chemistry of global warming and let the science tell us just how serious a position
our ecosystem and our society is in. The temperature and climate of our planet has been more
or less constant for the best part of a million years and it is under this regime of climate that
our ecosystem and indeed human life evolved. Any significant deviation from this equilib-
rium will have a devastating effect on both the ecosystem and on human life. We are fast
reaching this stage.
The fundamental mechanism leading to the warming of our planet is the greenhouse effect.
This initial warming effect is followed by certain feedback mechanisms (e.g., evaporation of
water from the oceans, the reduction in albedo effect on polar ice sheets) which exacerbates
the situation leading to further global warming and perhaps, in the not too distant future, a
run-a-way global warming catastrophe. Understanding the causes of global warming and the
present situation give reader a background to appreciating the different impacts climate
change is having on our society. This must indeed educate and galvanize the reader to do
something about reducing the onset of a catastrophic collapse of our society and the way
we live.

2 The greenhouse effect

Much of what follows in this section has been discussed in Chapter 1 of Managing Global
Warming (Letcher, 2019). It is pertinent to include it here at the beginning of The Impacts of
Climate Change. The concept of the greenhouse effect goes back to the 1820s, when Joseph Fou-
rier suggested that some component of the earth’s atmosphere was responsible for the tem-
perature at the surface of the earth. He was researching the origins of ancient glaciers and the
ice sheets that once covered much of Europe (Fourier, 1824). Decades later, Tyndall followed
up the Fourier’s suggestion, and used an apparatus designed by Macedonio Melloni to show
that CO2 was able to absorb a much greater amount of heat than other gases. This fitted in
with Fourier’s concept and pointed to CO2 as the component in the atmosphere that Fourier
was looking for. The Melloni apparatus was called a thermomultiplier, and was reported in
1831 (Nobili and Melloni, 1831; Sella, 2018). Tyndall’s results were published in references
(Tyndall, 1861, 1863). As a result, Tyndall can be named as the discoverer of the CO2 green-
house gas effect.
Linking CO2 in the atmosphere to the burning of fossil fuels was to be the last link in the
chain in understanding the reasons for the ice ages and also our own climate change. In the
1890s, Svante Arrhenius, an electrochemist, calculated that by reducing the amount of CO2 in
the atmosphere by half, the temperature of Europe would be lowered by about 4–5°C. This
would bring it in line with ice age temperatures. This idea would only answer the question of
why the ice age formed and then retreated, if there were large changes in atmospheric
composition and in particular, changes in CO2 concentration. At much the same time, also
in Sweden, a geologist, Arvid H€ ogbom, had estimated that CO2 from volcanic eruptions,

A. Introduction
 2 The greenhouse effect 5
together with the ocean uptake of CO2, could explain how the CO2 concentrations in the
atmosphere could change and hence provide some explanation for the ice ages. Along the
way H€ ogbom stumbled on a strange and new idea that the CO2 emitted from industrial coal
burning factories might influence the atmospheric CO2 concentration. He did indeed find that
human activities were contributing CO2 to the atmosphere at a rate comparable to the natural
geochemical processes. The increase was small compared to what was already in the atmo-
sphere, but if continued, it would influence the climate. Arrhenius took up this concept, and
his calculations are published (Arrhenius, 1896). Arrhenius concluded that the emissions
from human industry might someday bring on global warming. Hence, Arrhenius’s name
is forever linked to the greenhouse theory of global warming. However, thanks must also
go to those who paved the way—Fourier, Melloni, Tyndall, H€ ogbom, and probably many
others.
Arrhenius’s calculations were at first dismissed as unimportant or at worst faulty.
A similar fate was met by G.S Callendar who, in 1938, made the point that CO2 levels were
indeed climbing (https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/qjcallender38.pdf). It was
only in the 1960s, after C D Keeling measured the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
and showed that it was rising rapidly, that scientists woke up to the fact that global warming
was real and that anthropogenic activity was to blame.
Water vapor is an even more effective greenhouse gas than CO2. Furthermore, its concen-
tration in the atmosphere is very much higher than that of CO2 (of the order of a hundred
times higher), and H2O contributes over 60% of the global warming effect. The amount of
water vapor in the atmosphere is controlled by the temperature. An increase in the CO2 con-
centration in the atmosphere results in a relatively small increase of the global temperature
but that change is enough to increase the amount of water vapor in the air, through evapo-
ration from the oceans. It is this feedback mechanism that has the greatest influence on global
temperature. In a sense, paradoxically, the concentration of CO2 acts as a regulator for the
amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and is thus the determining factor in the equilib-
rium temperature of the earth. Without CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature of the earth
would be very much cooler than it is today; in fact, 33°C cooler.
The amount of solar energy shining on the earth (with wavelengths ranging from 0.3 to
5 μm) is vast. It heats our atmosphere and everything on the Earth and provides the energy
for our climate and ecosystem. At night, much of this heat energy is radiated back into space
but at different wavelengths, which are in the infrared range from 4 to 50 μm (earthguide.
ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange1/02_3.shtml). The frequencies of the heat radiat-
ing from a body is dependent of the temperature of the body (Planck’s Law of blackbody ra-
diation). This energy, leaving the Earth, heats the greenhouse gas molecules (such as H2O,
CO2, CH4, etc.) in the atmosphere. The explanation is as follows: using CO2 and H2O as ex-
amples, this heating process takes place because the radiated IR frequency is in sync (reso-
nates) with the natural frequency of the carbon-oxygen bond of CO2 (4.26 μm being the
asymmetric stretching vibration mode and 14.99 μm being the bending vibration mode)
and the oxygen-hydrogen bond of H2O. The increased vibration of the bonds effectively heats
the CO2 and H2O molecules. These heated molecules then pass the heat to the other molecules
in the atmosphere (N2, O2) and this keeps the earth at an equitable temperature. The vibrating
frequencies of the OdO bond in oxygen and the NdN bond in nitrogen molecules are very

A. Introduction
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 the territory with a close network, which has been evidenced
in a recent trial, and have been so bold as to defy the Church
dignitaries not accepting their vassalage. In pointing to the
peril of increasing mortmain threatening the principle of the
free circulation of property, it is sufficient to say that we
are influenced by no vain alarms, that the value of the real
property occupied or owned by the communities was in 1880 as
much as 700,000,000f., and that it now exceeds a milliard.
Starting from this figure, what may be the value of mortmain
personalty? Yet the real peril does not arise from the
extension of mortmain. In this country, whose moral unity has
for centuries constituted its strength and greatness, two
youths are growing up ignorant of each other until the day
when they meet, so unlike as to risk not comprehending one
another. Such a fact is explained only by the existence of a
power which is no longer even occult and by the constitution
in the State of a rival power. All efforts will be fruitless
as long as a rational, effective legislation has not
superseded a legislation at once illogical, arbitrary, and
inoperative. If we attach so much importance to a Law on
Association it is also because it involves the solution of at
least a portion of the education question. This Bill is the
indispensable guarantee of the most necessary prerogatives of
modern society."

{237}

This pre-announcement of the intentions of the government gave

rise, as it must have been intended to do, to a warm
discussion of the project in advance, and showed something of
the strength of the antagonists with whom its supporters must
make their fight. At length, late in December—a few days
before the opening of debate on the bill in the Chambers—the
attitude of the Church upon it was fully declared by the Pope,
in a lengthy interview which M. Henri des Houx, one of the
members of the staff of the "Matin," was permitted to publish
in that Paris journal. "After M. Waldeck-Rousseau's Toulouse
speech, and in presence of the Associations Bill," said the
Pope, "I can no longer keep silent. It is my Apostolic duty to
speak out. French Catholics will know that their father does
not abandon them, that he suffers with them in their trials,
and that he encourages their generous efforts for right and
liberty. They are well aware that the Pope has unceasingly
laboured in their behalf and for the Church, adapting the
means to the utility of the ends. The pilot is the judge of
the manœuvre at the bar. At one moment he seems to be tacking
before the tempest; at another he is bound to sail full
against it. But his one aim ever is to make the port. Now, the
Pope cannot consent to allow the French Government to twist
the Concordat from its real intent and transform an instrument
of peace and justice into one of war and oppression. The
Concordat [see, in volume 2, FRANCE: A. D. 1801-1804]
established and regulated in France the exercise of Catholic
worship and defined, between the Church and the French State,
mutual rights and duties. The religious communities form an
integral part of the Apostolic Church as much as the secular
clergy. They exercise a special and a different mission, but
one not less sacred than that of the pastors recognized by the
State. To try to destroy them is to deal a blow at the Church,
to mutilate it, and to restrain its benefits. Such was not the
intent of the Concordat. It would be a misconstruction of this
treaty to declare illegal and to interdict whatever it was not
able to settle or foresee. The Concordat is silent as to
religious communities. This means that the regular clergy has
no share in the special rights and relative privileges granted
by the Concordat to the members of the secular ecclesiastical
hierarchy. It does not mean that religious orders are to be
excluded from the common law and put outside the pale of the
State. … There was no need of mentioning the religious
communities in the Concordat because these pious bodies were
permitted to live under the shelter of the equal rights
accorded to men and citizens by the fundamental clauses of
your Constitution. But if an exception is to be made to these
solemn declarations in the case of certain citizens it is an
iniquity towards the Church, an infraction of the intentions
of the negotiators of 1801. Look at the countries with which
the Holy See has signed no Concordat, and even at Protestant
countries like England, the United States, and many another.
Are religious communities there excluded from the liberties
recognized as belonging to other citizens? Do they not live
there without being harassed? And thither, perhaps, these
communities would take refuge, as in the evil days of the
Terror, from the iniquity of Catholic France! But since then
France has become bound by the Concordat, and she seems to
forget it. …

"Why does France figure to-day by the side of the great

nations in the concert of the Powers settling the Chinese
question? Whence have your Ministry for Foreign Affairs and
your representative in Peking the authority which gives weight
to their opinion in the assembly of plenipotentiaries? What
interest have you in the north of China? Are you at the head
there in trade and industry? Have you many traders there to
protect? No. But you are there the noblest champions of
Christian civilization, the protectors of the Catholic
missions. Your foreign rivals are envious of this privileged
situation. They are seeking to dispute your rights laid down
in treaties that assign to you the rôle of defenders of native
missions and Christian settlements. … Hitherto your
Governments had had a better notion of the importance of their
rights. It is in the name of treaties guaranteeing them that
they protested to me when the Chinese Emperor asked me to
arrange diplomatic relations directly with the Holy See. Upon
the insistence of M. de Freycinet, the then Minister, I
refused, so fearful was I that France might believe, even
wrongfully, that I wished in any way to diminish her prestige,
her influence, and her power. In the Levant, at
Constantinople, in Syria, in the Lebanon, what will remain of
the eminent position held by your Ambassador and Consuls if
France intends to renounce representing there the rights of
Christianity? …
 "M. Waldeck-Rousseau, in his Toulouse speech, spoke of the
moral unity of France. Who has laboured more than I for it?
Have I not energetically counselled Catholics to cease all
conflict against the institutions which your country has
freely chosen and to which it remains attached? Have I not
urged Catholics to serve the Republic instead of combating it?
I have encountered warm resistance among them, but I believe
that their present weakness arises from their very lack of
union and their imperfect deference to my advice. The
Republican Government at least knows in what degree my
authority has been effective towards bringing about that
public peace and moral unity which is proclaimed at the very
moment when it is seriously menaced. It has more than once
thanked me. If the Pontifical authority has not been able
entirely to accomplish the union so much desired I at least
have spared no effort for it. Is there now a desire to
reconstitute the union of Catholics against the Republic? How
could I prevent this if, instead of the Republic liberal,
equitable, open to all, to which I have invited Catholics to
rally, there was substituted a narrow, sectarian Republic,
governed by an inflamed faction governed by laws of exception
and spoliation, repugnant to all honest and upright
consciences, and to the traditional generosity of France? Is
it thought that such a Republic can obtain the respect of a
single Catholic and the benediction of the Supreme Pontiff? I
still hope that France will spare herself such crises, and
that her Government will not renounce the services which I
have been able to render and can still render it.
{238}
On several occasions, for instance, and quite recently, I have
been asked by the head of a powerful State to allow disregard
of the rights of France in the East and Far East. Although
compensations were offered to the Church and the Holy See, I
resolved that the right of France should remain intact,
because it is an unquestionable right, which France has not
allowed to become obsolete. But if in your country the
religious orders, without which no Catholic expansion is
possible, are ruined and suppressed, what shall I answer
whenever such requests are renewed to me? Will the Pope be
alone in defending privileges the possessors of which prize
them so little?"

Of the seriousness of the conflict thus opening between the

French Republicans and the Roman Catholic Church there could
be no doubt.

The threatened bill was brought forward by the government and

debate upon it opened on the 15th of January, 1901. The most
stringent clauses of the measure were translated and
communicated to the "London Times" by its Paris correspondent,
as follows:

"II. Any association founded on a cause, or for an illicit

end, contrary to the laws, to public order, to good manners,
to the national unity, and to the form of the Government of
the Republic, is null and void.

"III. Any member of an association which has not been formed

for a determined time may withdraw at any term after payment
of all dues belonging to the current year, in spite of any
clauses to the contrary.

"IV. The founders of any association are bound to publish the

covenants of the association. This declaration must be made at
the prefecture of the Department or at the sub-prefecture of
the district which is the seat of the association. This
declaration must reveal the title and object of the
association, the place of meeting and the names, professions,
and domiciles of the members or of those who are in any way
connected with its administration. … The founders, directors,
or administrators of an association maintained or
reconstituted illegally after the verdict of dissolution will
be punished with a fine of from 500f. to 5,000f. and
imprisonment ranging from six days to a year. And the same
penalty will apply to all persons who shall have favoured the
assemblage of the members of the dissolved association by the
offer of a meeting place. …

"X. Associations recognized as of public utility may exercise

all the rights of civil life not forbidden in their statutes,
but they cannot possess or acquire other real estate than that
necessary for the object which they have in view. All personal
property belonging to an association should be invested in
bonds bearing the name of the owner. Such associations can
receive gifts and bequests on the conditions defined by Clause
910 of the Civil Code. Real estate included in an act of donation
or in testamentary dispositions, which is not necessary for
the working of the association, is alienated within the period
and after the forms prescribed by the decree authorizing
acceptance of the gift, the amount thereby represented
becoming a part of the association's funds. Such associations
cannot accept a donation of real estate or personal property
under the reserve of usufruct for the benefit of the donor.

"XI. Associations between Frenchmen and foreigners cannot be

formed without previous authorization by a decree of the
Conseil d'Etta. A special law authorizing their formation and
determining the conditions of their working is necessary in
the case, first of associations between Frenchmen, the seat or
management of which is fixed or emanates from beyond the
frontiers or is in the hands of foreigners; secondly, in the
case of associations whose members live in common. …

"XIV. Associations existing at the moment of the promulgation

of the present law and not having previously been authorized
or recognized must, within six months, be able to show that
they have done all in their power to conform to these
regulations."

Discussion of the Bill in the Chamber of Deputies was carried

 on at intervals during ten weeks, the government defeating
nearly every amendment proposed by its opponents, and carrying
the measure to its final passage on the 29th of March, by a
vote of 303 to 220. Of the passage of the bill by the Senate
there seems to be no doubt. After disposing of the Bill on
Associations, on the 27th of March, the Chamber adjourned to
May 14.

----------FRANCE: End--------

FRANCHISE LAW, The Boer.

See (in this volume)

SOUTH AFRICA (THE TRANSVAAL):
A. D. 1899 (MAY-JUNE); and (JULY-SEPTEMBER).

FRANCHISES, Taxation of public,

See (in this volume)

NEW YORK STATE: A. D. 1899 (MAY).

FRANKLIN, The Canadian district of.

See (in this volume)

CANADA: A. D. 1895.

FRANZ JOSEF LAND: Exploration of.

See (in this volume)

POLAR EXPLORATION, 1896;
1897; 1898-1899; 1900-; and 1901.

FREE SILVER QUESTION, The.

See (in this volume)

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:
A. D. 1896 (JUNE-NOVEMBER);
 and 1900 (MAY-NOVEMBER).

FREE SPEECH:
Restrictions on, in Germany.

See (in this volume)

GERMANY: A. D. 1898; and 1900 (OCTOBER 9).

FREE TRADE.

See (in this volume)

TARIFF LEGISLATION.

FREE ZONE, The Mexican.

See (in this volume)

MEXICAN FREE ZONE.

FRENCH SHORE QUESTION, The

Newfoundland.

See (in this volume)

NEWFOUNDLAND: A. D. 1899-1901.

FRENCH WEST AFRICA.

See (in this volume)

AFRICA: A. D. 1895;
and NIGERIA: A. D. 1882-1899.

FRIARS, Spanish, in the Philippines.

See (in this volume)

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS: A. D. 1900 (NOVEMBER).

{239}
G.

GALABAT, Battle of.

See (in this volume)

EGYPT: A. D. 1885-1896.

GALVESTON: A. D. 1900.
The city overwhelmed by wind and waves.

"The southern coast of the United States was visited by a

tropical hurricane on September 6-9, the fury of which reached
its climax at and near Galveston, Texas, 1:45 A. M., on
Sunday, the 9th. Galveston is built upon the east end of a
beautiful but low-lying island some thirty miles long and six
or seven miles wide at the point of greatest extent, though
only a mile or two wide where the city is built. The pressure
of the wind upon the waters of the Gulf was so powerful and so
continuous that it lifted the waves on the north coast many
feet above the ordinary high-tide level, and for a short time
the entire city was submerged. … The combined attack of
hurricane and tidal-wave produced indescribable horrors—the
destruction of property sinking into insignificance when
compared with the appalling loss of life. The new census taken
in June accredited Galveston with a population of 37,789. The
calamity of a few hours seems to have reduced that number by
20 per cent. The loss of life in villages and at isolated
points along the coast-line will probably bring the sum total
of deaths caused by this fatal storm up to 10,000. The
condition of the survivors for two or three days beggars
description. The water had quickly receded, and all means of
communication had been destroyed, including steamships,
railroads, telephone and telegraph lines, and public highways.
Practically all food supplies had been destroyed, and the
drinking-water supply had been cut off by the breaking of the
aqueduct pipes. The tropical climate required the most summary
measures for the disposition of the bodies of the dead. Military
 administration was made necessary, and many ghoulish looters
and plunderers were summarily shot, either in the act of
robbing the dead or upon evidence of guilt. …

"Relief agencies everywhere set to work promptly to forward

food, clothing, and money to the impoverished survivors. Great
corporations like the Southern Pacific Railroad made haste to
restore their Galveston facilities, and ingenious engineers
brought forward suggestions for protection of the city against
future inundations. These suggestions embraced such
improvements as additional break-waters, jetties, dikes, and
the filling in of a portion of the bay, between Galveston and
the mainland. The United States Government in recent years has
spent $8,000,000 or $10,000,000 in engineering works to deepen
the approach to Galveston harbor. The channel, which was
formerly only 20 or 21 feet deep across the bar, is now 27
feet deep, and the action of wind and tide between the jetties
cuts the passage a little deeper every year. The foreign trade
of Galveston, particularly in cotton, has been growing by
leaps and bounds."

American Review of Reviews,

October, 1900, page 398.

GARCIA, General:
Commanding Cuban forces at Santiago.

See (in this volume)

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:
A. D. 1898 (JUNE-JULY).

GENEVA CONVENTION:
Adaptation to maritime warfare.

See (in this volume)

PEACE CONFERENCE.
GEORGE, Henry:
Candidacy for Mayor of Greater New York, and death.

See (in this volume)

NEW YORK CITY: A. D. 1897 (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER).

GERMAN ORIENT SOCIETY:

Exploration of the ruins of Babylon.

See (in this volume)

ARCHÆOLOGICAL RESEARCH: BABYLONIA:
GERMAN EXPLORATION.

GERMAN PARTIES, in Austria.

See (in this volume)

AUSTRIA-HUNGARY.

----------GERMANY: Start--------

GERMANY: A. D. 1891-1899.
Recent commercial treaties.
Preparations for forthcoming treaties.

"The new customs tariff of July 15, 1879 [see, in volume 4,

TARIFF LEGISLATION (GERMANY): A. D. 1853-1892] exhibited the
following characteristics: An increase of the existing duties
and the introduction of new protective duties in the interests
of industrial and agricultural products. The grain and wood
duties, abolished in 1864, were reintroduced, and a new
petroleum duty was adopted. Those on coffee, wine, rice, tea,
tobacco, cattle, and textiles were raised. Those on iron were
restored; and others were placed on many new articles formerly
admitted free. In 1885 the tariff was again revised,
especially in the direction of trebling the grain and of
doubling the wood duties. Those on cattle, brandy, etc., were
raised at the same time. The year 1887 saw another general
 rise of duties. But, on the other hand, some reductions in the
tariff for most-favored nations came about in 1883 and in 1889 in
consequence of the tariff treaties made with Switzerland and
Spain. Other reductions were made by the four tariff treaties
of 1891 with Belgium, Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Switzerland,
and again in 1892 and 1893, when like treaties were
respectively made with Servia and Roumania. Increases in some
duties took place in 1894 and 1895, such as those on cotton
seeds, perfumes, ether, and honey. … In consequence of the
higher price, rendered possible at home from the protective
duty, the German manufacturer can afford to sell abroad the
surplus of his output at a lower price than he could otherwise
do. His average profit on his whole output is made up of two
parts: Firstly, of a rather high profit on the sales in
Germany; and, secondly, of a rather low profit on the sales
abroad. The net average profit is, however, only an ordinary
one; but the larger total quantity sold (which he could not
dispose of without the foreign market, combined with the extra
low price of sale abroad) enables him to produce the commodity
in the larger quantities at a lower cost of production than he
otherwise could if he had only the German market to
manufacture for. He thereby obtains abroad, when selling
against an Englishman, an indirect advantage from his home
protection, which stands him in good stead and is equivalent
to a small indirect benefit (which the Englishman has not) on
his foreign sales, which is, however, paid for by the German
consumer through the higher sale price at home.

{240}

"The customs tariff now in force provides one general or

'autonomous' rate of duty for all countries, from which
deviations only exist for such nations as have tariff treaties
or treaties containing the most-favored-nation clause. Such
deviations are 'treaty' or 'conventional' duties. At the
present moment treaties of one kind or another exist with most
European powers (excepting Great Britain, Spain, and Portugal)
and with the majority of extra-European countries. So that,
with few exceptions, the German Empire may now be said to
trade with the world on the basis of the lower 'conventional'
or 'treaty' tariff. Most of the tariff treaties existing in
Europe expired early in 1892, whereupon many countries
prepared higher customs tariffs in order to be prepared to
grant certain concessions reciprocally when negotiating for
the new treaties. Germany, therefore, under the auspices of
General Caprivi, set to work to make a series of special
tariff treaties with Belgium, Italy, Austria-Hungary, and
Switzerland, which were all dated December 6, 1891. Later
additions of the same class were those with Servia in 1892,
with Roumania in 1893, and with Russia in 1894.

"Perhaps almost the greatest benefit conferred upon the

country by these seven tariff treaties was the fact of their
all being made for a long period of years and not terminable
in any event before December 31, 1903. This secured for the
mercantile classes the inestimable benefit of a fixed tariff
for most of the important commodities of commerce over a long
period of time—a very valuable factor in trade, which has in
this case greatly assisted the development of commerce. The
reductions in Germany granted by these treaties were not great
except on imported grains, and those in the various foreign
countries were not very considerable either. … The
preparations for the negotiation of the new commercial
treaties which are to replace those which expire on January 1,
1904, were begun in Germany as early as 1897. Immense trouble
has been and is being taken by the Government to obtain
thoroughly reliable data on which to work, as they were by no
means content merely to elaborate a new tariff on the wide
experience already gained from the working of the seven
commercial treaties of 1891 to 1893."

Diplomatic and Consular Reports of the British Government,

January, 1899
(quoted in Monthly Summary of Commerce and Finance
 of the United States, January, 1899).

GERMANY: A. D. 1894-1895.
The Emperor and the Social Democrats.
His violent and autocratic speeches.
Failure of the Anti-Revolutionary Bill.
Socialist message to France.

At the opening of the winter session of the Reichstag, in

December, 1894, the Emperor, speaking in person, declared it
to be "necessary to oppose more effectually than hitherto the
pernicious conduct of those who attempt to disturb the
executive power in the fulfilment of its duty," and announced
that a bill to that end, enlarging the penal provisions of
law, would be introduced without delay. This was well
understood to be aimed at the Social Democrats, against whom
the Emperor had been making savagely violent speeches of late.
At Potsdam, in addressing some recruits of the Foot Guards, he
had gone so far as to say: "You have, my children, sworn
allegiance to me. That means that you have given yourselves to
me body and soul. You have only one enemy, and that is my
enemy. With the present Socialist agitation I may order
you,—which God forbid!—to shoot down your brothers, and even
your parents, and then you must obey me without a murmur." In
view of these fierce threatenings of the Emperor, and the
intended legislative attack upon their freedom of political
expression and action, six members of the Social Democratic
party, instead of quitting the House, as others did, before
the customary cheers for his Imperial Majesty were called for,
remained silently sitting in their seats. For that behaviour
they were not only rebuked by the president of the Reichstag,
but a demand for proceedings against them was made by the
public prosecutor, at the request of the Imperial Chancellor.
The Reichstag valued its own rights too highly to thus gratify
the Emperor, and the demand was refused, by a vote of three to
one. His Imperial Majesty failed likewise to carry the
bill—the Anti-Revolutionary Bill, as it was called—on which
 he had set his heart, for silencing critical tongues and pens.
The measure was opposed so stoutly, in the Reichstag and
throughout the Empire, that defeat appeared certain, and in
May (1895) it was dropped. The Emperor did not take his defeat
quietly. Celebrating the anniversary of the battle of Sedan by
a state dinner at the palace, he found the opportunity for a
speech in which the Socialists were denounced in the following
terms: "A rabble unworthy to bear the name of Germans has
dared to revile the German people, has dared to drag into the
dust the person of the universally honoured Emperor, which is
to us sacred. May the whole people find in themselves the
strength to repel these monstrous attacks; if not, I call upon
you to resist the treasonable band, to wage a war which will
free us from such elements." The Social Democrats replied by
despatching the following telegram to the Socialists in Paris:
"On the anniversary of the battle of Sedan we send, as a
protest against war and chauvinism, our greeting and a clasp
of the hand to our French comrades. Hurrah for international
solidarity!" Prosecutions followed. The editor of "Vorwärts"
got a month's imprisonment for saying the police provoked
brawls to make a pretext for interference; Liebknecht, four,
for a caustic allusion to the Emperor's declarations against
Socialism, and for predicting the collapse of the Empire; and
Dr. Forster, three, for lèse-majesté.

GERMANY: A. D. 1894-1899.
The Emperor's claim to "Kingship by Divine Right,"

A great sensation was produced in Germany by a speech

addressed on September 6, 1894, by the German Emperor to the
chief dignitaries and nobles of East Prussia in the Royal
Palace at Königsberg. The following are the principal
passages of this speech:

"Agriculture has been in a seriously depressed state during

the last four years, and it appears to me as though, under
this influence, doubts have arisen with regard to the
 fulfilment of my promises. Nay, it has even been brought home
to me, to my profound regret, that my best intentions have
been misunderstood and in part disputed by members of the
nobility with whom I am in close personal relation. Even the
word 'opposition' has reached my ears.
{241}
Gentlemen, an Opposition of Prussian noblemen, directed
against their king, is a monstrosity. Such an Opposition would
be justifiable only when the king was known to be at its head.
The history of our House teaches us that lesson. How often
have my predecessors had to oppose misguided members of a
single class on behalf of the whole community! The successor
of him who became Sovereign Duke in Prussia in his own right
will follow the same path as his great ancestor. The first
King of Prussia once said, 'Ex me mea nata corona,' and his
great son 'set up his authority as a rocher de bronze.' I, in
my turn, like my imperial grandfather, hold my kingship as by
the grace of God. … We witnessed an inspiring ceremony the day
before yesterday. Before us stands the statue of the Emperor
William, the imperial sword uplifted in his right hand, the
symbol of law and order. It exhorts us all to other duties, to
the serious combating of designs directed against the very
basis of our political and social fabric. To you, gentlemen, I
address my summons to the fight for religion, morality, and order
against the parties of revolution. Even as the ivy winds round
the gnarled oak, and, while adorning it with its leaves,
protects it when storms are raging through its topmost
branches, so does the nobility of Prussia close round my
house. May it, and with it the whole nobility of the German
nation, become a brilliant example to those sections of the
people who still hesitate. Let us enter into this struggle
together. Forward with God, and dishonor to him who deserts
his king."

Time has wrought no change in these extraordinary ideas of the

German Emperor. Speaking at Hamburg, October 19, 1899, on the
necessity of strengthening the naval forces of the Empire, in
 order to afford protection to trade over the sea, he said:
"The feeling for these things is only slowly gaining ground in
the German fatherland, which, unfortunately, has spent its
strength only too much in fruitless factional strife. Germans
are only slowly beginning to understand the questions which
are important to the whole world. The face of the world has
changed greatly during the last few years. What formerly
required centuries is now accomplished in a few months. The
task of Kaiser and government has consequently grown beyond
measure, and a solution will only be possible when the German
people renounce party divisions. Standing in serried ranks
behind the Kaiser, proud of their great fatherland, and
conscious of their real worth, the Germans must watch the
development of foreign states. They must make sacrifices for
their position as a world power, and, abandoning party spirit,
they must stand united behind their prince and emperor."
Commenting on this utterance, a recent writer has said: "This
ideal of a docile nation led by a triumphant emperor whose
intelligence embraces everything throws considerable light on
the relations of imperialism to party government and
parliamentary institutions. … There are many other expressions
of the emperor which indicate an almost medieval conception of
his office, a revival of the theory of divine right. The
emperor believes that his grandfather, had he lived in the
Middle Ages, would have been canonized, and that his tomb
would have become a cynosure of pilgrimages from all parts of
the world. … In a speech delivered at Coblenz on August 31,
1897, he speaks of the 'kingship by the grace of God, with its
grave duties, its tremendous responsibility to the Creator
alone, from which no man, no minister, no parliament can
release the monarch.'"

GERMANY: A. D. 1895 (June).

Opening of the Kaiser Wilhelm Ship Canal.

The opening of the new ship canal (named the Kaiser Wilhelm
Canal) between the Baltic and the North Sea was made the
occasion of a great celebration, on the 21st of June, in which
the navies of Great Britain, Russia, France, Austria and Italy
took part, steaming in procession with the German squadron
through the canal. It was also made the occasion for an
exhibition of the newly-formed alliance between Russia and
France, the Russian and French fleets entering the harbor of
Kiel together.

See (in this volume),

FRANCE: A. D. 1895.

The canal had been eight years in building, the first spadeful
of earth in the excavation having been turned by Emperor
William I. at Holtenau, near Kiel, on the 3d of June, 1887.
The canal is thus described: It is "98.6 kilometers (61.27
miles) in length. It begins at Holtenau, on the Bay of Kiel,
and terminates near Brunsbüttel, at the mouth of the River
Elbe, thus running clear through the province of
Schleswig-Holstein from northeast to southwest. Both openings
are provided with huge locks. Near Rendsburg, there is a third
lock connecting the canal with the old Eider Canal. The medium
water level of the canal will be about equal to the medium
water level of Kiel harbor. At the lowest tide the profile of
the canal has, in a depth of 6.17 meters (20 feet 6 inches)
below the surface of the water, a navigable width of 36 meters
(118.11 feet), so as to allow the largest Baltic steamers to
pass each other. For the navy, 22 meters (72.18 feet) of canal
bottom are provided, at least 58 meters (190.29 feet) of water
surface, and 8½ meters (27 feet 9 inches) depth of water. The
greatest depth for merchant vessels was calculated at 6.5
meters (21 feet 3 inches). The estimated cost was $37,128,000.
Two-thirds of the cost is defrayed by Germany; the remaining
one-third by Russia. The time saved by a steam-ship sailing
from Kiel to Hamburg via the canal, instead of through the
Skaugh (the strait between Jutland and Sweden), is estimated
at 2, days. The time of passage through the canal, including
stoppages and delays, will be about thirteen hours. In time of
 peace, the canal is to be open to men-of-war, as well as
merchant vessels of every nation, but in time of war, its use
will be restricted to vessels of the German navy. Many vessels
have been wrecked and many lives lost on the Danish and
Swedish coasts, in waters which need not be navigated after
the canal is opened to traffic. Its strategic importance to
Germany will also be great, as it will place that country's
two naval ports, Kiel on the Baltic, and Wilhelmshafen on the
North Sea, within easy access of each other."

United States Consular Report,

Number 175, page 603.

{242}

GERMANY: A. D. 1895 (June-December).

Census of the Empire and census of Prussia.

"The results of the last census of the German Empire (the

census being taken every five years in December) … have
produced some surprise in that, notwithstanding the alleged
depression of agriculture and manufactures, the tables show an
increase greater than any census since the formation of the
Empire. The population, according to the official figures, is
52,244,503, an increase since December, 1890, of 2,816,027, or
1.14 per cent increase per year. The percentages of the previous
censuses was: In 1871-1875. 1 per cent; 1875-1880, 1.14 per
cent; 1880-1895, 0.7 per cent; 1885-1890, 1.06 per cent. A
striking illustration is given by a comparison with the
figures of the French census. The increase in France for the
same period (1890-1895) was but 124,000, an annual average of
0.07 per cent of its population, and Germans see in this
proportionally smaller increase a reason for certain classes
in France entertaining a less warlike feeling toward Germany,
and thereby assuring general European peace.

"In 1871, at the foundation of the German Empire, its

population was 40,997,000. [In 1890, it was 49,428,470.] The
percentage of increase differs vastly in northern and southern
Germany. In the former, the annual increase was 1.29 per cent;
in the latter, only 0.71 per cent. This must be attributed in
a great measure to the highly developed mining industries of
the Rhineland and Westphalia, where the soil, besides its
hidden mineral wealth, is devoted to agriculture. The southern
states—Bavaria, Baden, and Würtemberg—being more mountainous,
offer less opportunities for agricultural pursuits and are
favored with less natural riches. It is again noticeable that
those provinces which are ultra-agrarian show a very favorable
increase. It would seem that it is not the peasant, but the
great landowner, whose condition is undesirable and that this
condition is due less to the present low prices of cereals and
the customs-revenue policy of the Government than to the
heavily mortgaged estates and lavish style of living which is
not in keeping with their revenues. … "The number of
marriages, which showed a decrease from the middle of the
eighties, has increased since 1892. An unlooked-for increase
is shown in the country population."

United States, Consular Reports,

June, 1896,
pages. 245-246.

"Some of the results of the last census of Prussia, taken on

the 14th of June, 1895, with special regard to trades and
professions, have appeared in an official journal devoted to
statistics. … The entire population of Prussia, which includes
the provinces wrested from Poland, Denmark, and Saxony, as
well as the seized Kingdom of Hanover, counts up for both
sexes on the 14th of June, 1895, 31,491,209; by the last
census (December 1, 1890), it was 29,955,281, an increase of
1,335,928, or 5.13 per cent. Of males, June 14, 1895, there
were 15,475,202; December 1, 1890, 14,702,151, an increase of
773,051; females, June 14, 1895, 16,016,007; December 1, 1890,
15,253,130, an increase of 762,877. The relatively small