Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, Volume I 721

E.S. Rubin, D.W. Keith and C.F. Gilboy (Eds.)

© 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
T H E IEA W E Y B U R N CO2 M O N I T O R I N G A N D S T O R A G E P R O J E C T - M O D E L I N G
OF THE LONG-TERM MIGRATION OF CO2 FROM WEYBURN

W. Zhou ~*, M.J. Stenhouse ~, R. Arthur ~, S. Whittaker 2, D.H.-S. Law 3, R. Chalaturnyk 4, and W. Jazrawi 5

~Monitor Scientific, 3900 S. Wadsworth Blvd., Suite #555, Denver CO 80235,USA.

2Saskatchewan Industry and Resources, Regina, Saskatchewan Canada 24N 4G3.
3Alberta Research Council, 250 Karl Clark Road, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6N 1E4.
4Department of Civil Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2G7.
5PTRC, c/o EnCana Corporation, P.O. Box 2850, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P 2S5.

ABSTRACT

This paper details the models and results of the assessment of the long-term fate of CO2 injected into the Weyburn
field for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) operations. A System Model was established to define the spatial and
temporal extents of the assessment. The Base Scenario was developed to identify key processes, features, and events
(FEPs) for the expected evolution of the storage system. A compositional reservoir simulator with equations-of-
states (EOS) was used as the modeling tool in order to simulate multiphase, multi-component flow and transport
coupled with CO2 mass partitioning into all three phases. We apply a deterministic treatment to CO2 migration in
the geosphere (natural pathways), whereas the variability of abandoned wells (man-made pathways) necessitates a
stochastic treatment. The results show that the geosphere is able to contain the injected CO2 for at least 5000 yrs,
i.e., no CO2 enters the potable aquifers through natural pathways and media. The well results show that the likely
cumulative leakage via all the existing wells in the field is less than 0.001% of the CO2-in-place at the end of EOR.

INTRODUCTION

In July 2000, a 4-year research project to study geological sequestration and storage of C O 2 w a s launched, known
as the International Energy Agency (IEA) Weyburn CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project. CO2 from the North
Dakota Gasification plant is transported and injected into an approximately 1450-m deep oil reservoir located in
Weyburn, south Saskatchewan, Canada, for enhanced oil recovery. The operator, EnCana Resources of Calgary,
Alberta, has designed a total of 75 patterns for this operation that will last for approximately 34 years. The CO2
sequestration research is sponsored by a number of governments and industrial sponsors from North America,
Europe and Japan, including Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

One of the objectives of this multi-disciplinary project has been to determine the long-term fate of C O 2 injected
into the reservoir (CO2 will remain in the reservoir after injection). Such a determination involves an evaluation of
the potential for CO2 to migrate to the environment via both natural and man-made (wellbore) pathways, relying on
the technical input from many disciplines, including geology and hydrogeology, geochemistry, geomechanics,
reservoir simulation, seismic and wellbore technology.

Systems analysis was conducted to identify credible and potential scenarios of the storage system. The credible
scenario, the Base Scenario, is defined as the expected evolution of the Weyburn system (reservoir plus surrounding
geosphere plus biosphere). Within this scenario, CO2 is expected to migrate via natural (geosphere) as well as man-
made (abandoned wells) pathways under pressure, density, and concentration gradients. Mass partitioning of CO2
among the three phases accompanies movement of fluids.

Based on the FEPs for the Base Scenario, the System Model was established to define spatial and temporal extents
of the assessment. The geological component of the System Model was constructed by combining detailed
stratigraphic divisions into broader hydrostratigraphic, or flow, units. The model includes ten aquifers and six

* Corresponding author: Tel. (303)985-0005, Fax. (303) 980-5900, Email: wzhou@monitorsci.com

722

aquitards from about 100 m below the Weyburn reservoir to the ground surface, or up to about 1800 m of
sedimentary rocks. The deepest aquifer required in the model, Alida-Tilston, was identified based on
hydrogeological information. The upper aquifer includes the near-surface aquifer system that is treated as part of
the biosphere and constitutes one end-point for the assessment of local environmental impacts. The lateral extent of
the model is approximately 10 km from the EOR boundary as established by previous scoping assessments. The
assessment period starts at the end of EOR operation and extends to 5000 years thereafter.

We apply a deterministic treatment to C O 2 migration in the geosphere because (1) CO 2 migration depends on the
coupled processes associated with multiphase, multi-component system and, on geological features and
hydrogeological conditions; (2) quantitative evaluation of this system requires a detailed model; and (3) the
available data and chosen modeling tools (migration simulation and geological modeling) make it possible to
construct a comprehensive model that meets most of the requirements. As for potential leakage through man-made
pathways, the variability of abandoned wells necessitates a stochastic treatment. The primary source of variability
comes from the heterogeneity of both the CO2 distribution and rock properties in the reservoir.

ECLIPSE 300 (E300), a compositional reservoir simulator developed by GeoQuest/Schlumberger, was used as the
modeling tool. Although E300 was not developed specifically for simulating CO2 geological sequestration, the code
has the capability to simulate EOR employing a CO2 flood. In the absence of well-developed computational tools
for this specific modeling purpose, industry-standard reservoir simulators like E300 become the only available tools
for reasonable simulation of CO2 storage systems, especially an oil field system like Weyburn. In particular,
tracking the thermodynamic state of CO2, a substance with low critical pressure and temperature, requires equation-
of-state capability. On this aspect, compositional reservoir simulators have developed robust capabilities from many
years of field application, which is a unique asset for modeling CO2 migration. The effect of density gradient due to
CO2 dissolved in water is also simulated.

ASSESSMENT OF GEOSPHERE MIGRATION

Figure 1 shows the geosphere migration model for predicting long-term CO 2 migration in the geosphere.
Geological formations in the System Model extent are represented as flow units (aquifers) and barriers (aquitards).
Laterally, this migration model extends to approximately 10 km beyond the EOR region, including the reservoir
outside the EOR patterns.

Weybum
field location , Vuggy
M any (bottom Midale)
5460000
5470000--- 5
5480000----7 ..

f~570000 580000
500

0 R~ / ~ l ~
Aquifer
-5

Shading label:
-1000- ~'z • ?i~i~l~ii~i~li~lii~/l~ii/~ii~ii!~iii,~iii!i~ i
aquitards top Midale bottom Midale aquifers

Figure 1: The model for assessing CO 2 migration within the geosphere. The x and y axes are UTM coordinates.
The z axis is depth with respect to sea level in meters. Note, the vertical scale in the figure has been
exaggerated.
 723

The migration model accommodates heterogeneous permeability. In the aquifers, the field pressure data are
mapped to the migration model and, together with the permeability distribution, define the flow fields of formation
waters. In the Midale Marly and Vuggy layers, where the oil reservoir is located, the oil field data are also mapped
to the migration model, defining oil and water saturation distributions in the reservoir. Figure 2 shows examples of
model parameters, particularly, distributions of permeability and updip angles in Midale.

Permeability [mDarey]
-~ 1, 40
0.0 575 1140 1724 2298 KILOMETRES
(a) This figure shows permeability data in Midalc (b) The arrows show the magnitude and
mapped to the geosphere assessment model. The direction of updip in Midale. The maximum
minimum, maximum, and mean values are 0.0 !, angle of updip is 0.08 degrees. Structure
21298, and 80 mDarcy. contour lines are also shown.

Figure 2: Selected model parameter distributions in Midale. Note, in order to align with the EOR patterns, the x-y
plane of the model is tilted approximately 45 degrees from the x axis.

The geosphere migration model considers three phases (oil, gas, and water) and seven components including CO2
and six pseudo hydrocarbon components with molecular weights ranging from 19 to 822. The modified Peng-
Robinson equations-of-states are used to dictate fluid phase behavior and component mass partitioning. The
migration model uses the default CO2 solubility data in E300, which originate from an empirical relation valid at
low pH values (<< 7) and are applicable to most reservoir conditions [1 ].

The long-term assessment begins at the end of EOR (in 2034), taking into account the CO2-in-place, as well as
pressure and fluid/component distributions in the field, predicted for the EOR period by independent reservoir
simulation. In the central area of the model that incorporates the 75 patterns, the starting conditions are provided by
the reservoir simulation results at the end of EOR. To avoid upscaling problems, this central area was refined tO the
same resolution as the reservoir simulation model. To ensure correct fluid-in-place determinations, pore volumes of
the central area are made identical to those in the reservoir simulation model. In the center area of the geosphere
model, the properties were replaced with the history-matched reservoir properties used in the reservoir simulation.

Various sources have contributed to relative permeability and capillary pressure data for aquifers, aquitards, and
reservoir rocks used in the simulation, including field data for the reservoir provided by EnCana, the operator of the
Weyburn field. These data show that the residual gas saturation in the Midale formations where CO2 is injected, is
0.05, which means that gas saturation cannot be reduced below 0.05 by flow. Residual gas saturation can be
reduced by other mechanisms, however, such as dissolution. For aquitards, data for consolidated material anhydrite
were used [2]. For the caprock, the "entry pressure" effect was included by adjusting the capillary pressure curve
724

using laboratory-measured data [3]. Note, the caprock is treated as permeable material with non-zero permeability
(10 -5 mDarcy). Wherever oil phase data were absent but needed as input, equations to derive oil relative
permeability in [4] were used. CO2 diffusion coefficients in hydrocarbon phases are based on values reported in [5].

Key assumptions of the model include (1) ignoring coupled geochemical reactions that could alter rock transport
properties, and (2) treating the fractured reservoir rock as an equivalent porous medium with permeability values
from field data as well as history matching results. The second assumption may overestimate mass transfer by
ignoring diffusion into the rock matrix, which, in some cases, is an important process for retarding mass transfer.

The migration is simulated for up to 5000 years after completion of EOR. Figure 3 shows gas saturation
distributions in the center area of Midale Marly and Vuggy layers at the end of EOR and also at 2500 yrs, and 5000
yrs after the end of EOR. This center area includes the 75 patterns where CO2 is injected. It can be seen that CO2-
rich (with CO2 mole fraction up to ---1.0) gas phase moves from the bottom to the top of the reservoir and is trapped
under the caprock due to the "envy pressure" effect and low permeability in the caprock. Oil phase also moves
updip accompanied by diffusion of hydrocarbon components (excluding CO2) from the surrounding reservoir into
the EOR area where much oil has been produced. By diffusion, CO2 in oil phase moves away from the EOR
patterns, which is opposite to the hydrocarbon component movement. Both oil and gas phases inside the 75 patterns,
however, are less mobile than the water phase, and are largely confined within, and in the vicinity of, the 75-pattern
area. The trapped gas phase forms gas pockets scattered in the 75-pattern area. The gas pockets shrink with time
due to loss of CO2 by dissolution in the moving water. Water movement is driven by pressure gradient during the
early depressurization (the process of equilibration between high EOR residual pressure and the ambient pressure
that is in hydrostatic range) period and subsequently is controlled by the ambient flow field after pressure transient.
The CO2-bearing water that is denser also moves downward. Constant formation water sweeping the 75-pattern area
picks up CO2 from less mobile oil and gas phases, carrying dissolved CO2 laterally outward and also downward into
aquifers below Midale, where it will take a geologically-significant time for the water to flow into the biosphere, i.e.,
a potable aquifer. This process accounts for most of the CO2 removal from the 75 patterns. Once CO2 is released
into aquifers below the reservoir, the aqueous COe would follow the hydrodynamic regime where it will be diluted,
sorbed, and/or lost to carbonation reactions.

At the end of EOR 2500 yrs after 5000 yrs after

Marl~
(top .....
reservoir)

Vuggy .*. ........'..........."~ ~ . ~ ........... ~®ii!

...~. . . . . . . . . ~ t ~. I t i~.~~,i .t .~, "~.,
(bottom ~
reservoir)
Gas Saturation

0.0 0.16 0.32 0.48 0.64

Figure 3: Plane (x-y) view of CO2-rich gas phase movement in the center area of the Midale Marly and Vuggy
layers at the end of EOR, and at, 2500-yrs, and 5000-yrs after the end of EOR.
 725

To summarize the results, CO2 migration is controlled by the movement of gas, oil, and water phases and by the
chemical distributions of CO2 among these three phases. The complexities of migration justify the use of E300, or
any similar simulators, that have the capability to model coupled phase movement and mass partitioning processes
with EOS dictating phase behavior.

Figure 4 shows the rates at which C O 2 is removed from the 75-pattern area into the geosphere above, below, and
the Midale formations outside, the reservoir. It can be seen that the mass transfer of CO2 is affected by the variation
in pressure. Early, relatively fast mass transfer can be attributed to the high pressure gradient across the boundary of
the EOR region. Mass transfer of CO2 slows down as the pressure decreases, followed by a change in rate, or a
slight increase in the case of lateral CO2 migration, as the ambient pressure/flow field is restored at about 1000 yrs.
The mass transfer rate generally decreases with time due to decrease in mass transfer driving force (pressure
gradients, concentration gradients, etc).

1.E+07 I to Midale formations

22

outside the EOR region

1 .E+06 21 ~>
<
0

2O ~
1 .E+05 0
-,, [ to geosphere below 19 = ' ' -
the EOR rei#on "O
"~ 1.E+04 J Pressure
L 18;~e
~ 1.E+03
17w ~
ffl
to geosphere above C
1.E+02
t~ the EOR region 16
D.
1 .E+01
15 ~

1.E+00 t . . . . . 14
1.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.0E+00 1.0E+01 1.0E+02 1.0E+03 1.0E+04
Time after the end of EOR [yrs]

Figure 4: Time variation of C O 2 m a s s transfer rates into the geosphere, and oil phase pressure inside the 75 patterns
averaged over hydrocarbon pore volumes.

Cumulatively, after 5000 years, the total amount of C O 2 removed from the EOR area is 26.8% of the initial C O 2 -
in-place (the CO2 is in the 75 patterns at 2034 is ---21 MT) at the end of EOR. Among them, 18.2% of the initial
CO2-in-place is released into the geosphere below the reservoir, 8.6% of the initial CO2-in-place ends up in the
Midale reservoir outside the EOR area, and 0.02% goes to the geosphere above. No CO2 enters any potable aquifer
over the 5000-year period.

Throughout the project, simulations have been conducted using models and data sets obtained at various project
stages for the purpose of sensitivity analysis. Parameters varied for this purpose include permeability, caprock
"entry pressure", reservoir capillary pressure, salinity, formation water flow rate, etc. Results from such simulations
demonstrate that key parameters affecting CO2 vertical movement include the caprock permeability and the "entry
pressure". All these simulations have consistently shown that no CO2 reaches the potable aquifers, the biosphere,
over the 5000-year period, which clearly indicates the important contribution of the multiple thick barriers (shown as
aquitards in Figure 1) above the Midale reservoir. Favorable removal of CO2 from EOR patterns to aquifers below
the reservoir is largely attributed to flow rates in these aquifers.
 727

The "Unit Cell" model was activated for 287 calculations in which saturations, component concentrations, and
permeability values in each of 287 grids were used for individual runs. Since the reservoir pressure at 100 years is
nearly hydrostatic, the average pressure in the 75-pattern area was used. The results show a large range in leakage
rates; the maximum leakage rate ranges from 0 to 0.016 kg/day, and the time at which leakage reaches a maximum
rate also varies. Figure 6 shows the mean, 95%, and maximum leakage rates as a function of time obtained from
these (287) runs, along with leakage rates vs. time from selected runs (the 5% result is off the scale of Figure 6).

Results were analyzed in terms of

attempting to identify correlations between
1.00E-01
the maximum leakage rates and reservoir
~ m u m parameters, including horizontal and vertical
1.00E-02 J permeability, gas saturation, CO2
-;scs~;c~x;.. concentrations, etc. in both the Midale
Marly and Vuggy layers. Figure 7 shows
1.00E-03
the scatter plot of the maximum leakage
........... _ ~ , ~ ~ , ~ ~ mean rates from the 287 runs against the total CO2
Q
"~ 1.00E-04 I
mass in water in the corresponding 287
l _,., __ _ . - - - - __ ._. _.. _ grids. The total CO2 aqueous mass is the
Q
If "-" -- Run#31 sum of the CO2 mass in the water fraction of
m 1.00E-05 l'
the Midale Marly and Vuggy layers,
0
/ =I Run# 157 calculated using the corresponding water
,11 II saturation, CO2 aqueous concentration,
1.00E-06
density, and pore volume of each grid. It
~ "i . . . . . . " - Run# 171
can be seen that in general, the maximum
100E-07 leakage rate is associated with high CO2
100E+02 1.00E+03 1.00E+04 aqueous concentration, consistent with the
Time [vrsl since the end of EOR observed cement property that is restrictive
to non-aqueous phases. More analysis has
Figure 6" Stochastic results of C O 2 leakage rates as a function of shown that the high leakage is generally
time, predicted using the "Unit Cell" model with associated with high permeability values,
stochastic treatment. The diagram also shows the results high gas saturation, and high CO2
of a few selected runs. concentrations in all three phases, while low
leakage associated with low permeability,
zero gas saturation, and low C O 2 concentrations. The number of grids with such an extreme combination of the key
parameters, however, is small. In most grids, these parameters are combined rather chaotically.

Variability in well leakage is also demonstrated

in the cumulative leakage shown in Figure 8 as the ,-, 1.E-01
5%, mean, 95%, and maximum cumulative leakage
as a function of time.
¢~ 1.E-02 ***

In general, the stochastic nature of reservoir °

m 1.E-03 . •
conditions dictates stochastic behavior of leakage
through abandoned wells across the focused area.
1.E-04 . " ~ . ** t
However, when the cement permeability is low (_<
1 mD), the ultimate control of leakage lies in the
cement permeability. When the cement iI 1E-05 .'~"• • •

permeability is higher (e.g., > 10 roD), reservoir E "* •o °•~1 b

properties govern the rate and amount of CO2 E 1.E-06
.,,m • * •• • 4'
)¢ •
leakage. To confirm this conclusion, a few "Unit
Cell" runs were carried out using an increased 1.E-07 . . . .

cement permeability (10 mD), and the results
indicated an increase in both the leakage rates and
cumulative leakage, but only by a factor of about
two.
1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07
Total C02 Mass in Water [kg]
Figure 7: Scatter plot of the maximum CO2 leakage rates
and CO2-in-water.
728

Combining the maximum C02 flux through

a wellbore (0.016 kg/day), with an estimated
10000 1,000 wells over the 75-pattern area (currently
maximum

'~
1000
100
9:21 ---824 wells), yields a total cumulative leakage
of CO2 of--0.03 MT over 5,000 years. This
total amount represents --0.14% of the total
CO2-in-place (21 MT) at the end of EOR.
This value is a highly-conservative upper
estimate, however, as it assumes that the
~ 0.1 maximum flux is maintained throughout the
5,000-year period for all wells. Thus, a more
"~ O.Ol representative value is the mean cumulative
o.ool leakage, corresponding to less than 0.001% of
the CO2-in-place at the end of EOR.
0.0001
100 1000 10000 To provide some perspective on wellbore
T i m e since end of EOR [yrs] leakage rates, reference is made to scoping
calculations conducted to determine the
limiting CO2 flux from the geosphere based on
Figure 8: Stochastic results of cumulative leakages of C02 specific (local) environmental impacts [8].
through abandoned wells. Two specific impacts were assessed in [8]: (i)
influx of CO2 from a point source (wellbore)
into a dwelling through cracks in the
foundations of the home, and (ii) influx of CO2 from a point source into a potable groundwater supply, with resultant
mobilization of toxic trace elements. Of these, a limiting indoor air CO2 concentration of 0.35% [9] yields a limiting
leakage rate from a wellbore of 5.4 kg CO2 per day. CO2 leakage to a potable aquifer proved more restrictive,
yielding a limiting CO2 leakage rate of similar magnitude to the mean cumulative leakage described above. More
detailed treatments of these environmental impacts are recommended before making a definitive statement on an
acceptable CO2 leakage rate to the biosphere. For example, results elsewhere [10] indicate a possible CO2 build-up
in the vadose zone, which could impact the resultant CO2 concentration in indoor air.

LIMITATIONS

Although this work represents one of the first attempts to model CO 2 migration in the geosphere that extends from
aquifers below the reservoir to the potable water system near the surface, the model has limitations. Such
limitations include the omission of geochemical reactions coupled with transport and dispersion in aquifers.
Geochemical reactions involving supercritical CO2 may alter formation porosity and permeability, which has impact
on CO2 transport. Ignoring sorption and carbonation would underestimate CO2 sequestration by mineral trapping
mechanism. Absence of dispersion in aquifers underestimates desirable removal of CO2 from the reservoir.

Limitations in well leakage model include treatment of cement degradation rate as a constant, rather than an
uncertain, parameter. The current conservative treatment of cement permeability overestimates CO: leakage via
abandoned wells.

Model improvement will rely on future research and development providing key inputs to the long-term
assessment. For example, coupled geochemical reactions and their impact on fluid flow, if proven to be important,
should be included in the future model. For the well leakage model, more data on cement degradation rates (ideally
in situ) and statistics on quality of sealing emplacement are needed to construct probabilistic density functions for
key parameters for sealing materials. These data, combined with stochastic parameters in the reservoir, may provide
more realistic predictions of the performance of abandoned wells.
 729

CONCLUSIONS

Deterministic, detailed modeling of CO2 migration within the geosphere demonstrates that up to 75% of the initial
(at the end of EOR) CO2-in-place still stays within, and in the vicinity of, the EOR area. 18% of the initial CO2-in-
place is removed by formation water flow in aquifers below the reservoir. 8% of the initial CO2-in-place is
dispersed into the Midale reservoir outside the EOR patterns. No CO2 ever enters the biosphere within 5000 yrs.

Stochastic modeling of leakage via abandoned wells focuses on the performance of degraded cement sealing and
variability of properties and CO2 distribution in the reservoir. The conservative treatments provide upper bounding
results showing that the maximum possible leakage by 5000 yrs is approximately 0.14% of the initial CO2-in-place.
The likely leakage by 5000 yrs, however, is less than 0.001% of the initial CO2-in-place.

These results mean that if the Weyburn CO 2 storage system evolves as expected, the goal of storing greenhouse
gas CO2 can be achieved. Future assessments should focus on alternative scenarios, including seismic activity,
open wellbores, and human intrusions.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This work was funded as part of the IEA Weyburn CO 2 Monitoring and Storage Project. In including the names
of Steve Whittaker, David Law, Rick Chalaturnyk and Waleed Jazrawi in our paper, we acknowledge the major
contributions of all Research Providers within the Weyburn Project, without which this modeling work could not
have been carried out. We are also grateful to an anonymous reviewer whose comments resulted in improvements
to this paper.

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National Laboratory, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
3. Dong, M., 2003., communication within the Weyburn Project.
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