Sardar Patel College of Engineering,Bakrol

Unit -5
Probabilistic Reasoning

LAJJA DAVE
Assistant Professor
Sardar Patel College of Engineering, Bakrol
Email: lajjadave.cse@spec.edu.in
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 Outline
✔ Probability And Bays’ Theorem
✔ Bayesian Networks
✔ Certainty Factors And Rule-Base Systems
✔ Dempster-Shafer Theory
✔ Fuzzy Logic

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 Bayes’ Theorem
• In statistics an probability theory, the bayes’ Theorem (bayes’ rule) is a mathematical
formula used to determine the conditional probability of event.
• The Bayes’ Theorem describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge
of the conditions that might be relevant to the event.
• Bayes’ Theorem Formula:

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 Bayesian Network
• "A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set of variables and their
conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic graph.“
• It is also called a Bayes network, belief network, decision network, or Bayesian model.
• Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from a probability
distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction and anomaly detection.

• Real world applications are probabilistic in nature and to represent relationship between multiple event
we need Bayesian Network.

• Bayesian network can be used for building models from Data & expert opinions.

– Uses: Prediction, anomaly-detection, decision making

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• Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts opinions, and it consists of
two parts:
– Directed Acyclic Graph
– Table of conditional probabilities.

• Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable can be continuous
or discrete.

• Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or conditional probabilities between random
variables. These directed links or arrows connect the pair of nodes in the graph.
These links represent that one node directly influence the other node, and if there is no directed link
that means that nodes are independent with each other

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 Example
• Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home to detect burglary. The alarm reliably responds at detecting a
burglary but also responds for minor earthquakes. Harry has two neighbors David and Sophia, who have taken a
responsibility to inform Harry at work when they hear the alarm. David always calls Harry when he hears the
alarm, but sometimes he got confused with the phone ringing and calls at that time too. On the other hand, Sophia
likes to listen to high music, so sometimes she misses to hear the alarm. Here we would like to compute the
probability of Burglary Alarm.

• Problem: Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but there is neither a burglary, nor an
earthquake occurred, and David and Sophia both called the Harry.

• List of all events occurring in this network:

• Burglary (B)
• Earthquake(E)
• Alarm(A)
• David Calls(D)
• Sophia calls(S)

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• P[D, S, A, B, E]= P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S, A, B, E]
=P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S | A, B, E]. P[A, B, E]
= P [D| A]. P [ S| A, B, E]. P[ A, B, E]
= P[D | A]. P[ S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B, E]
= P[D | A ]. P[S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B |E]. P[E]

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• P(B= True) = 0.002, which is the probability of burglary.
• P(B= False)= 0.998, which is the probability of no burglary.
• P(E= True)= 0.001, which is the probability of a minor earthquake
• P(E= False)= 0.999, Which is the probability that an earthquake not occurred.

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 Fuzzy Logic
• Fuzzy logic can be seen as the superset of Boolean logic which classifies statement as ‘True’ or
‘False’.
• In Fuzzy logic the degree of truth is very important.
• It has modes of reasoning which are approximate rather than exact.
• Reasoning using fuzzy logic is very similar to human reasoning.
• Example: Anil is Short
– If Anil height is less than 5 feet (this is true).
– If Anil height is more than 6 feet we can partially enter the value in both the set name as ‘tall’ &
‘short’.
• So, fuzzy logic allows element to partially be in set.
• Real time Example: All electronic components (AC | IRON etc.)

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 Certainty Factors And Rule-Base Systems
• A Certainty Factor (CF) is a numerical estimates of the belief or disbelief on a conclusion in the presence of set of
evidence. Different methods for adopting Certainty Factor have been adopted.
1. Use a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates certainly false ( total disbelief), 1 indicates definitely true (total
belief). Other values between 0 to 1 represents varying degrees of beliefs and disbeliefs.

2. use a scale from –1 to +1 where -1 indicates certainly false, +1 indicates definitely true, and intermediate
values represent varying degrees of certainty, with 0 meaning unknown.

• The weights express the perceived certainty of a fact being true.

• The use of certainty factors is similar to probabilistic reasoning but is less formally related to probability theory.
• There are many schemes for treating uncertainty in rule based systems. The most common are

– Adding certainty factors.

– Adoptions of Dempster-Shafer belief functions.

– Inclusion of fuzzy logic. Artificial Intelligence (3170716)
 Certainty Factor in a Rule based System
• In a rule based system, a rule is an expression of the form "if A then B" where A is an assertion and B
can be either an action or another assertion.
• A problem with rule-based systems is that often the connections reflected by the rules are not
absolutely certain or deterministic, and the gathered information is often subject to uncertainty.
• In such cases, a certainty measure is added to the premises as well as the conclusions in the rules of
the system.
• A rule then provides a function that describes : how much a change in the certainty of the premise will
change the certainty of the conclusion.
• In its simplest form, this looks like : If A (with certainty x) then B (with certainty f(x))

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Thank
You!

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