Climate Change and Ancient Societies

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PALGRAVE STUDIES IN ANCIENT ECONOMIES

Climate Change and

Ancient Societies
in Europe and the
Near East
Diversity in Collapse
and Resilience
Edited by
Paul Erdkamp · Joseph G. Manning ·
Koenraad Verboven
 Palgrave Studies in Ancient Economies

Series Editors
Paul Erdkamp, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Ken Hirth, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Claire Holleran, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, UK
Michael Jursa, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
J. G. Manning, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
Himanshu Prabha Ray, Gurugram, Haryana, India
This series provides a unique dedicated forum for ancient economic
historians to publish studies that make use of current theories, models,
concepts, and approaches drawn from the social sciences and the disci-
pline of economics, as well as studies that use an explicitly comparative
methodology. Such theoretical and comparative approaches to the ancient
economy promotes the incorporation of the ancient world into studies of
economic history more broadly, ending the tradition of viewing antiquity
as something separate or ‘other’.
The series not only focuses on the ancient Mediterranean world, but
also includes studies of ancient China, India, and the Americas pre-1500.
This encourages scholars working in different regions and cultures to
explore connections and comparisons between economic systems and
processes, opening up dialogue and encouraging new approaches to
ancient economies.

More information about this series at

http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/15723
 Paul Erdkamp · Joseph G. Manning ·
Koenraad Verboven
Editors

Climate Change
and Ancient Societies
in Europe
and the Near East
Diversity in Collapse and Resilience
Editors
Paul Erdkamp Joseph G. Manning
Department of History Department of History
Faculty of Languages Yale University
and the Humanities New Haven, CT, USA
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Elsene, Belgium

Koenraad Verboven
Department of History
Ghent University
Gent, Belgium

ISSN 2752-3292 ISSN 2752-3306 (electronic)

Palgrave Studies in Ancient Economies
ISBN 978-3-030-81102-0 ISBN 978-3-030-81103-7 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-81103-7

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 Introduction

The debate on Global Warming and the concerns about the impact of
Global Warming on future society have sparked interest in past climate
change and its impact on past societies—not only in academia, but even
more so outside academia. This general interest stimulated research by
historians, archaeologists and palaeoclimatologists, if only in response to
general claims from outside these disciplines. Climate change over the past
thousands of years is undeniable, but debate has arisen about its impact
on past human societies. The decline and even collapse of complex soci-
eties in the Americas, Africa and the Eurasian continent has been related
to catastrophic shifts in temperature and precipitation. Other scholars,
however, while seeing climate change as potentially hastening endoge-
nous processes of political, economic and demographic decline, argue that
complex societies did not fall victim to climate alone. In other words,
a debate has arisen concerning the nature and scope of climatic forces
on human society and the extent of resilience within complex societies
to deal with adverse changes in natural circumstances. The debate so
far has shown that the role of long-term climate change and short-term
climatic events in the history of mankind can no longer be denied. At
the same time, the realization has also emerged that further study must
go beyond global patterns and general answers. Diversity governs both
climate change and human society. Hence, furthering our understanding
of the role of climate in human history requires complex theories that
combine on the one hand recent paleoclimatic models that recognize the

v
vi INTRODUCTION

high extent of temporal and spatial variation and, on the other, models
of societal change that allow for the complexity of societal response to
internal and external forces.
This volume focuses on the link between climate and society in ancient
worlds, which all have in common a sparsity of empirical data that limits
our understanding of the endogenous and exogenous variables respon-
sible for societal change and our ability to empirically establish the causal
links between them. Lacking precise and secure historic data on weather,
harvests, prices, population, health and mortality, historical reconstruc-
tions run the risk of being overwhelmed by impressive quantities of
long-term paleoclimatic proxy data. Due to the sparsity of societal data,
early economies may appear to be more subjected to environmental forces
than later pre-industrial societies. The challenge is to bring both perspec-
tives together in models that allow an evenly balanced analysis of the link
between climate and society.

Joseph G. Manning---Climate
and Society: Past and Present
In the world before 1800, human societies had very little understanding
of long-term fluctuations in the climate that affected their environments.
They could observe weather phenomena or short-term events like the
height of the annual flood of the Nile, the Euphrates or the Yellow river,
or see that drought was upon them. But there was no understanding
of the natural forces that drove such short-term and long-term changes.
Farmers everywhere were well aware of the condition of their crops,
the best timing for planting and harvesting. Temperature could not be
measured, past consequences of drought or of disease were stored in
collective cultural memory, mainly through the medium of temples and
priesthoods.
The connection between environment and human cultures was already
of concern to the Ionian geographers, best embodied in Herodotus.
Aristotle’s Meteorology, written in the fourth century, is a remarkable
text upon which much modern science is based. In the early nineteenth
century, scholars such as Alexander von Humboldt revolutionized both
the natural sciences and the ideas of environmental geography with his
travels through South America. The very concepts of the ‘environment’,
of ecology, and human caused climate change were born in his fertile
 INTRODUCTION vii

mind, and the powers of his observations. Von Humboldt laid the founda-
tion for much of the work now being done in climate science laboratories
around the world. With an understanding of the interconnectedness of
the world, ‘Humboldtian science’ as it is now called, historians and scien-
tists began to examine the connection between climatic changes and the
human responses to them. Observations, for example, of Swiss natural-
ists to the advance and retreat of glaciers in the Alps began to be tied to
agricultural output, since they were proxy evidence for global changes in
temperature. In some ways, though, we can trace Humboldt’s work back
to the Ionian geographers of the sixth century BCE and to the work of
Herodotus in the fifth century BC.
Before the climate science revolution readers who sought an under-
standing of historical climate change could turn to the classic accounts by
the great French historian Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie and his pioneering
Times of Feast, Times of Famine. A History of Climate Since the Year 1000
(Doubleday, 1971, originally appearing as Histoire du climate depuis l’an
mil, 1967).1 The book still makes compelling reading. Le Roy Ladurie
analysed crop reports, observations of glacial retreat and the dates of
grape harvests with great care. These were detailed records for some
regions like Burgundy, but it was impossible to join them with climate
data, there just was not enough detailed information. And besides, there
were other factors, the supply of seasonal labour for example, that deter-
mined the timing of grape harvests in Burgundy. With increasing amounts
of precise climate data of precipitation and temperature patterns across
the world, historians are able to gain a much clearer picture of what was
happening region by region around the world.
That revolution certainly shows that nature was a ‘protagonist’ in
history, to quote one recent scholar (Campbell 2010). But it was not
the only protagonist. Human societies are complex things. Up to the
early twentieth century, historians tended to focus on political history, the
doings and dealings of kings and armies. Holistic histories that attempt
to take account of social complexity, ‘histoire totale’ the French historical
Annales school calls them, combine political, economic, environmental
and cultural factors in past societies. Ironically, the complexity of human

1 More recent work by him incorporates more climate data and departs from his earlier
views of the role of climate change in history. See Le Roy Ladurie (2004), Le Roy Ladurie
and Vasak (2011). For the evolution of Le Roy Ladurie’s thinking, see the essay by Mike
Davis (2018).
viii INTRODUCTION

societies and the increasing amount of detail that paleoclimatologists are

offering has served as a barrier to writing new histories (Bradley 2015).
Mountains of complex and difficult-to-interpret data stand sentry to all
those who would seek answers in the new science.
Our ability to integrate climate data with humanistic archives about
past climate change is one of the most important and exciting devel-
opments in History. The possibility of rewriting almost the entirety of
human history lies before us. History will never again be based on written
texts alone. New histories that reveal how intimately connected societies
have been with their environments and how they have responded to
climate change have already begun to appear. Yet this potential for new
histories is neither uncontroversial nor easy. The controversy goes back
as least as far as Hippocrates and Herodotus who believed that culture
and particular regions on Earth were determined by climate and envi-
ronmental conditions. Egypt was rich yet static and unchanging. Greece,
in contrast, was dynamic, borrowing new ideas anywhere it could. Egypt
was hot, agriculture was accomplished by irrigating fields from the annual
flood of the Nile. The soil was rich, very little labour was required to
produce abundance. This abundance created soft people who were easily
conquered. Greece, in purposeful contrast, was poor, it had rocky soil,
farmers had to depend on rain. Greeks were quarrelsome and competitive,
yes, but they could band together to defeat the mighty Persian Empire.
A subtle yet important historical theory that has been with us ever since.
So much so indeed that it is a major problem and point of vigorous
argument among historians. It has come to be known by the uncompli-
mentary phrase ‘climate determinism’, committed by Montesquieu in the
eighteenth, Friedrich Ratzel in Germany in the nineteenth and the Yale
geographer Ellsworth Huntington in the early twentieth century. In 1915
Huntington wrote an influential book entitled Civilization and Climate.
It was a compelling story, complete with observations of temperature,
humidity and human health, that mapped human civilization and climatic
zones around the world. In direct way, Huntington’s theory mirrored
Herodotus’ theory of civilization written at the end of the fifth century
BC that contrasted Greeks with other civilizations around the Mediter-
ranean. Despite the fact that this simplified ‘climate determinism’ view of
the world has become obsolete, it remains a common critique of much
recent work that combines climate data with historical analysis.
The central question is: was climatic change the most important driver
of cultural turning points like the Bronze Age ‘Collapse’, the Roman
 INTRODUCTION ix

Climate Optimum, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice
Age? When did these periods begin and end? What about short-term
climate shocks? How did these, if they did, play a role in cultural change
or adaptation? An important issue, raised by the historian Jan De Vries,
is measurement. Can we really show that temperature or precipitation
changes produced a ‘crisis’? Given the complexity of societies, including
ancient ones, the uncertainties of data and the difficulties of assigning
historical causality, it is better, he suggests, to think about adaptation.
Juxtaposing climate facts and historical facts and assuming the two must
somehow be related just won’t do. We think that the integration of histor-
ical and climate date within this model is a very good (if very challenging)
way to go.
‘Unless these crises can be shown to be something other than unique,
exogenous shocks’, De Vries (1980) rightly concludes, ‘a skeptic might
feel justified in concluding that short-term climatic crises stand in rela-
tion to economic history as bank robbers to the history of banking’. He’s
speaking about short term, year by year climate shocks, and is correct to
say that understanding climate/human events in a longer time series is
better with very specific models. Climatic change may have been a very
tiny part of historical change, at other times it might have played a signifi-
cant role. The challenge is to measure climate as an independent variable.2
Here time scale is critical, and we are fortunate now, compared to 1980,
in having much better and more highly resolved data, often with the same
temporal resolution as historians work, i.e. annual.
The traditional cultural historical views of the ancient perceptions
of environment around the Mediterranean, embodied in the work of
Glacken (1967) and Hughes (1996), can and must now by studied along-
side a growing body of scientific studies of environmental and climatic
change. R. Sallares’ book was pioneering in introducing a more scientific
approach to understanding the Greek environment 1991. His discussion
of demography and agriculture in particular established a new agenda,
which increasingly is dominated by scientific approaches and data. This
basic orientation has now been much elaborated and extended.3 Paleo-
climatologists around the world are adding new and increasingly highly

2 Cf. the remarks by Harper (2015) 562.

3 For a sense of the rapid development of the field, see inter alia Harris (2013), Harper
(2017) and Scheidel (2018).
x INTRODUCTION

resolved data for many parts of the world so rapidly that it is very hard to
keep pace with the literature even within one subfield.
Three periods of climate history have received a good deal attention
in recent years: the so-called 4.2 ka (ca. 2200 BCE) event, the 3.2 ka
event (ca. 1100 BCE, the so-called Bronze Age Collapse) and the Roman
Climate Optimum, a period with inexact temporal boundaries but gener-
ally understood, for the central Mediterranean, as lying between 100 BCE
and 150 CE. Now there is work on shorter term climate shocks as well.
An important contribution to the debate now is the study of the impact of
explosive volcanic eruptions on hydroclimate, which in large part is due to
the increased chronological precision produced by ice core geochemistry
(Manning, Ludlow et al. 2017; Sigl et al. 2015).

Koenraad Verboven---Climate
and Society: A Complex Story
With few exceptions reliable direct meteorological measurements are
not available before the nineteenth century. Temperatures, rainfall or
prevailing wind directions and strengths have to be inferred from indirect
data. The past few decades climate scientists have collected an impres-
sive amount of such ‘proxy data’ from tree rings, ice-core layers, glaciers,
speleothems, stable isotope variations and many more ‘natural archives’.
There are many difficulties in the interpretation of these data as indi-
cators of relative and absolute meteorological data such as temperature
and precipitation values. But in this respect as well the methodolog-
ical advances during the past decades have been impressive. The datasets
continue to expand and are easily accessible for research. For historians,
however, the relevant questions are not what average temperatures were
and how they changed, or how much rain or snow there was. The relevant
question is how this affected human history.
Clearly climate is an important factor in historical developments.
Climate affects the ecosystems and thus also the socio-ecological systems
(SES) in which human societies develop. But this process is far from
straightforward. It is profoundly non-linear. More or less rain can result
in strains on food production methods, but populations can respond by
changing production and storage methods, or even diets. The effects
of climatic events and trends depend on human landscape manage-
ment. Agrarian use of slopes without precautions triggers erosion even
 INTRODUCTION xi

without changes in precipitation levels. Conversely increased rainfall can

be managed by sensible drainage systems.
Individual human actions have little impact, but the aggregate impact
of large numbers of individual actions can be extremely damaging or
protecting. Potentially even more impactful are cooperative efforts. Coop-
eration among humans, however, depends on prevailing institutions,
social structures and inequalities in power and wealth distributions.
Without understanding the social structure and dynamics of human popu-
lations, therefore, we cannot hope to understand the historical effects of
climate change.
Human societies are part of socio-ecological systems (SES) that are
both complex and adaptive. They consist of different components—not
only individuals and organized groups, but also animals, plants, pathogens
and even non-living elements as soils and landscape reliefs—interacting
and affecting each other, each responding differently to inputs. If we want
to understand the effects of climate changes at local/regional/global
scales we need to study these systems as a whole, including their societal
characteristics besides their ecological, geographic and climatic. Such a
holistic approach is not feasible for single researchers or monodisciplinary
teams. We need multidisciplinary teams including historians, social scien-
tists, archaeologists, geomorphologists and climate scientists. This book
is a step in this direction.
A key concept to understand the evolution of complex systems is
their resilience—their ability to absorb shocks but also, and more impor-
tantly, their ability to adapt and change without breaking down as a
system. According to resilience theory any SES will go through phases
of episodic change (Redman 2005). Typically these changes follow an
‘adaptive cycle’ consisting first of ‘exploitation’ followed by ‘conserva-
tion’. During the exploitation phase the system (e.g. a polis-based SES)
expands its potential and thus builds up its capital base. From a human
perspective, for instance, new land is brought under cultivation, wild-life
is controlled, forests felled or reorganized for human exploitation; mate-
rially, public infrastructure is built, production, storage, and distribution
facilities for consumables are constructed; socially, power distributions
are realigned and institutionalized; and so on. During the conservation
phase the system enjoys its newly acquired higher state; land is being
cultivated, the proceeds are distributed towards elites and non-elites ….
The progressive ‘exploitation’ and ‘conservation’ phases are followed
by a ‘release’ or ‘collapse’ phase during which the built-up capital—for
xii INTRODUCTION

instance the concentration of land, wealth, power and technical know-

how—is destroyed or rearranged—for instance through the destruction
of production facilities and large land holdings, the redistribution of agri-
cultural land or the destruction of oligarchic rule. The ‘release/collapse’
phase is eventually followed by a reorganization—for instance a transition
from direct exploitation to tenancy, or vice versa; from dispersed authority
(oligarchy, democracy) to centralized authority (monarchy), or vice versa,
from gift-exchange of status goods to market-based commodity exchange,
or vice versa.
Climate change is not an external variable in this process. An increase
or decrease in precipitation levels and temperatures may boost an exploita-
tion phase or trigger collapse. Yet while it is true that human agency
had very little impact on such climate phenomena before the indus-
trial era, human interventions have profoundly affected how climate
changes translated into impacts on ecosystems since many thousands of
years. As many contributions in this book show, agrarian-based ecosys-
tems with a predominance of human food crops generally respond very
differently to climate change than non-human determined ecosystems.
Historical studies of climate change, therefore, have to include the
interaction between societal systems and ecosystems as integral parts of
socio-ecological systems.
Historical trajectories of societal systems are far more complicated than
their ‘complexity’ in terms of systems theory can capture. The ‘com-
plex adaptive nature’ of societal systems means that they too consist
of interacting non-homogenous components—in plain speak individuals,
households, families and small or not so small groups—that have inde-
pendent agency from the higher system. The human dimension of social
behaviour imbues societal systems with a heterogeneity that is qualita-
tively different from that underlying ecosystems, climate or geophysical
systems.
Conceptually we can ascribe agency to animals, plants, even to things
and spaces; we can even, as in Actor Network Theory, situate agency in
relations rather than in individuals or collective entities. But conceptual
ascriptions to fit social-science models should not be confused with the
reality they are trying to model. Not every actant is an ‘agent endowed
with will and understanding’, having the ability to decide consciously or
 INTRODUCTION xiii

unconsciously to act or not.4 Only higher-order animals are effectively

endowed with agency in this sense. Among them, human beings are
incomparably more powerful because their collective agency is aided by
symbolic languages that support social learning and memories. Together
symbolic languages, social cognition and memories forge and express
social identities that merge individual and collective interests. These iden-
tities in turn stimulate cooperation and inform incentivized co-operators
on their expected roles. For the same reason, however, misunderstand-
ings, overestimations and even denial of external realities are built-in in
our mental system. We perceive reality—even experience it to a large
extent—through the lens of the symbolic languages we use to inform
ourselves and others, and we make sense of this perceived and expe-
rienced reality by inserting it in cognitive frames built through social
learning and memories. The current denial of climate change, COVID-
19 impacts, and the anti-vaxers movement are painful reminders of the
limits of our understandings. Human realities are phenomenological, not
ontological. Hence, the societal part of socio-ecological systems does not
abide by any comprehensive rule set governing the overarching SES.
Or more correctly in terms of systems theory: the rule sets governing
socio-ecological systems are predictive, not deterministic.
For instance, as Tim Soens (2018) argued for coastal communities in
early modern Flanders to understand societal change we cannot look only
at the systemic level to understand the supposed resilience or breakdown
of the system. We need to factor in the victims and victors, the losers
and winners. Major questions need to be asked such as whether and how
existing elites succeed or fail to take advantage of the impacts of (in our
case) environmental changes to improve their elite status by increasing
their wealth and/or power. ‘Resilience’ may be defined as the ability of
a societal system to maintain its features against external and internal
shocks. But the inevitable costs involved are rarely distributed evenly or
in proportion to the existing resource distributions. Resilience may be
achieved by upgrading and downgrading the living standards of large

4 Audi and Audi 2017: 17 s.v. ‘agent causation’; the terminology is muddled; ‘actant’,
‘actor’ and ‘agent’ are (too) often used as interchangeable concepts. I think this is regret-
table because the negation of the primary difference between material agents and human
agents obscures more than it reveals, but I cannot go into that discussion here; the liter-
ature on the agency of objects, particularly in anthropology, is vast; for an introduction
and discussion see Hoskins (2006).
xiv INTRODUCTION

swaths of the people in it, by destroying habitual ways of life, by shifting

them within the structural boundaries of the system—from freeholders
to peasants, to day-labourers; from shopkeepers to hired hands; from
merchants to land-owners; and so on… Unless we realize this and include
it in our research questionnaire, the definition of resilience covers up
dynamics that profoundly impact how societies change or not in response
to climate change.
In addition to societal subsystems, such as villages or clans, societies
comprise also ‘classes’, ‘status groups, ‘orders’, ‘races’ and other social
categories. These are useful conceptual labels because they express similar-
ities in individual or small-group behaviour that derive from the position
of people and groups within social structures. As such the labels denote
real-world phenomena, valid subjects of research in themselves, determi-
nants of a system’s overall behaviour and thus components of the system.
Yet they are not themselves subsystems. Although similarities may be iden-
tified in the behaviour of the agents belonging to a specific class, status
category or order, they do not per se interact more with their ‘likes’
than with agents belonging to different categories—servants, masters, co-
workers, bosses, soldiers, officers and so on. Members of the same class
may live in different, even distant, communities with little or no inter-
secting social networks to connect them. The labels denote components
of socio-cultural (sub)systems that cross through and interact with soci-
etal subsystems. In studying impacts of climate change, culture is part of
the equation as much as precipitation levels are.
Systemic behaviour is guided by rule sets (Verboven 2021). In complex
adaptive systems, however, different rule sets are at work. Obviously
natural laws drive climate change—cloud formations, winds, precipitation
and so on—but these are only a small part of the story of human climate
history. Social rules and institutions drive how humans impact ecosystems
and how they respond or fail to respond to climate change. Contrary to
the laws of physics, this drive is not deterministic. Natural laws deter-
mine natural events—how matter and energy change or not. Social rules
predict social events—how human beings act or not. These predictions
are never absolute. They depend on circumstances that are often unpre-
dictable. Shared social rules and institutions are road maps that allow
humans to navigate themselves and others towards and along values and
interests, and to predict how others will do the same. But social rules
only exist because they are played out by agents who have a choice—even
if it sometimes means suffering or death. This playing out of rules not
 INTRODUCTION xv

only depends on how well the agents understand the rules by which they
and others are expected to play. Agents can choose or feel constrained to
play out, ignore or break rules in specific situational contexts according to
the social roles in which they feel cast, but also according to the personal
or collective interests they perceive. They have memories that affect how
situations are interpreted, anticipations regarding the outcome of their
and other agents’ actions, and hopes and fears of future events—real or
imagined.
The structural position of agents within a system affects their behaviour
and the rule sets they choose to follow or deviate from. Partly this is
the case because the position in which a person—or a collective—situates
himself and others affects the social roles and expectations inherent in
that position (their gender or social or economic class for instance). Partly
also this is because resource endowments and flows are tied up with social
structures. Purposeful action may fail or be impossible not because people
fail to see what needs to be done, but because they lack the means to act
effectively.
What does all this mean for human climate history? It means that we
need to ask not just how the impact of climate change on ecosystems
might have affected the socio-ecological systems of past societies. We
need to ask how social structures, institutions, resource endowments and
culture were affected by and responded to climate change impacts and
we need to ask how they—driven by dynamics that cannot be reduced to
climate events—impacted both directly and indirectly (via their societal
systems) on ecosystems.

Paul Erdkamp---Climate and Society:

Studying Ancient Worlds
The impact of climate change on society is in part a question of temporal
scale. It has been pointed out that on the scale of the entire Holocene
(which started after the last Glacial Period about 11,700 years ago),
there seems to be no correlation between climate and society. The long-
term climatic trend over the Holocene up to twentieth century (when,
according to some, the Anthropocene began) was one of decreasing
temperature and humidity, as the climate in western Eurasia was colder
and drier at the end of the Holocene than in its first half. Despite
fluctuations and geographical variations this general long-term trend is
clear. However, population levels, societal complexity and life expectancy
xvi INTRODUCTION

increased significantly between those two points in time (Roberts et al.

2019, 15), again with much fluctuation and variation, but undeniably
so. In short, the long-term trend did not constrain the development
of humankind quantitatively or qualitatively. Nobody would want to
conclude that humans fare better in colder and drier conditions, so
the conclusion must be that societies were resilient. In the long run,
humankind did well, despite overall adverse climatic trends.
However, from a different perspective the image reverses, at least for
those historical eras and regions for which quantifiable data are available.
Some of the most severe mortality crises can be related to climatic events,
such as the extremely cold decade of the 1690s. Large segments of the
population in the most affected countries proved vulnerable to the effects
of prolonged periods of cold on livestock and arable farming, causing
hundreds of thousands to perish in Scotland and Finland (Huhtamaa
and Helama 2017, 9; D’Arrigo et al. 2020). Despite differing degrees
of vulnerability, societies clearly were susceptible to weather extremes that
caused harvest failures or floods. But also the demographic impact of these
years of extreme weather is a matter of scale, as Scotland’s and Finland’s
population recovered fairly soon. In the long run, the cold spell of the
1690s had little impact on northern Europe’s demography, although the
catastrophic experience may have seriously affected these societies in other
ways. Demographic studies of societies that offer sufficient empirical data
have shown that famines by themselves had little impact on population
levels in the long run. Long-term demographic trends are much more
determined by the presence and absence of epidemic disease, which makes
the debate on the possible links between climate change and epidemics a
hugely important one.
In order to establish the impact of climate change empirically, we need
time series of data on weather, population and economy, which are avail-
able for western Europe and China from the later Middle Ages onwards,
but for few societies beyond these temporal and spatial boundaries. Our
demographic or economic data for early societies are far less accurate
than those for early modern Europe and China, at best allowing the
identification of relative trends. Population estimates for ancient societies
are generally based on estimates of settlement size and number, while
those for prehistory are derived from trends in C14-datings (Bevan et al.
2018, 2019). The results are characterized by a low spatial and temporal
resolution and a wide margin of uncertainty.
 INTRODUCTION xvii

The difference in the nature of the sources for early and later societies
is linked to distinctions in methodologies and disciplines. The availability
of written historical data for early modern societies in Europe means that
the debate on the impact of climate in this period is mostly conducted
by historians, in contrast to the debate on the same issues regarding
ancient societies, in which archaeology plays a major role. Both disci-
plines have shown widely differing perspectives on the role of climate
in world history. However, also within the discipline of archaeology,
perspectives have been shifting in recent decades, as processual archae-
ology—at least in part—yielded to postprocessual archaeology. Processual
archaeology was characterized by the search for underlying principles
in human society—principles that were mostly found in environmental
factors (O’Brien 2017, 296; Weber 2017, 27). Fundamental drivers
of societal dynamics were seen in the link between environment and
population. Environmental change, population growth, carrying capacity
and societal collapse were therefore key themes in this approach to
the past. However, the emphasis on underlying principles and environ-
mental factors made processual archaeology vulnerable to environmentally
inclined ‘Grand Narratives’, a realization that stimulated the shift towards
postprocessual archaeology, which aims at a more balanced approach to
the interplay of environmental and societal factors.
This paradigm shift within archaeology also contributed to bridging
the gap between archaeologists and most historians, as the latter tend to
dismiss theories that perceive societies as passive subjects to environmental
factors. The reluctance of many historians to accept a determining role
of environmental factors in historical processes is often depicted as an
instinctive response to ideas that threaten their traditional belief in the
primacy of human agency. Indeed, in the nineteenth century, history as
an academic discipline held as one of its basic principles that all societies
were unique and had to be understood by themselves. The subjection
of historical processes to environmental determinants as a universal law
of history conflicted with the basic understanding of the drivers behind
societal developments. History as a discipline has changed significantly
since the nineteenth century, but it is still very much rooted in the same
soil. In a sense, over the course of the twentieth century, the historical
discipline moved in the direction of social science, often putting social and
economic factors at the heart of the narrative and assigning an important
role to the environment, including climate, but many historians are still
xviii INTRODUCTION

very much weary of universal truths in the past and of ‘Grand Narratives’
that reduce myriad events to a few big ideas.5
This volume brings together historians, archaeologists and paleoclima-
tologists who critically discuss the impact of climate change on ancient
societies, focusing on western Eurasia and starting with the Neolithic,
while ending at the early Middle Ages.
The first section consists of four thematic chapters, each dealing with
a different aspect of the debate. Reconstructions of past climates by pale-
oclimatologists constitute the starting point for the analysis of the impact
of climate change on early societies. An understanding of what the proxies
on which these reconstructions are based can tell us about past climates—
and what not—is fundamental to the debate. Hence, Paul Erdkamp starts
with an overview of the most relevant proxies with an eye to the temporal
and spatial resolution of these data, as this aspect is crucial regarding
the link that modern scholars draw between environmental and societal
processes. He also notes that the recent increase in the resolution of our
image of past climate change has triggered a veritable paradigm shift.
While the earlier data seemed to point to clear-cut centuries-long climatic
eras, recent analyses emphasize short-term fluctuations and regional vari-
ations within long-term trends and therefore move away from thinking in
terms of climatic epochs.
Frits Heinrich and Annette Hansen give a leading role to an element
that is central to the impact of climate on society, but that has curiously
received little attention in historic debates: agricultural crops. Many misin-
formed assumptions concerning the impact of changes in temperature and
precipitation have guided narratives of the impact of climate change on
society. Based on crop biology and agricultural science, the authors offer
a nuanced overview of the biochemical processes affected by changing
meteorological conditions. They moreover warn against easy and gener-
alized conclusions, as they emphasize the crucial importance of time scale
and of the vital but variable role of the human actor.

5 Emanuel LeRoy Ladurie hesitated to assign climate a determining role in human

history: ‘In short, the narrowness of the range of secular temperature variations, and the
autonomy of the human phenomena which coincide with them in time, make it impossible
for the present to claim that there is any causal link between them. […] I am satisfied if
this book establishes certain primary phenomena of pure climatic history. The secondary
question, of the impact of climate on human affairs, belongs to another province, and to
researches not yet carried out’ (Quote from p. 292.).
 INTRODUCTION xix

On the basis of his expertise in how longer-term water practices emerge

from short-term actions of human and non-human agents in historical
and archaeological periods, Maurits Ertsen discusses models on the inter-
action between humans and landscapes that have been applied in the
case of the Roman world. His conclusion emphasizes that our models of
larger-scale and longer-term correlations between environmental and soci-
etal processes must be based on our understanding of causalities between
short-term agencies.
The analysis of famines, demography and climate in Italy from the late
seventeenth to the early twentieth century by Paolo Malanima offers the
kind of study that prehistorians and ancient historians need to help them
interpret the limited data that they have for the societies they study. As we
have noted above, early societies lack quantifiable evidence concerning the
demographic impact of climate change on their populations. The combi-
nation of imprecise and uncertain data on demographic trends and the
general absence of climatic data on an annual, let alone seasonal or daily,
scale makes it impossible to empirically analyse the impact of weather
phenomena or climate change on mortality or fertility. Studies into the
demography of prehistory or antiquity inevitably rely on the models that
are based on the empirical data of later times. Malanima’s chapter shows
how complex the empirical study of the link between weather phenomena,
agricultural production and demographic shocks is.
The remainder of the volume presents case-studies that span the
Neolithic to the early medieval period and cover much of Europe,
the Near East and northern Africa. Caroline Heitz et al. on the one
hand discuss such concepts as resilience and collapse, on the other
methodological aspects of analysing prehistoric societal change from these
perspectives. They do so on the basis of long-term data series concerning
climate and settlement activities on the northern Alpine foreland. While
the impact of climate change on society is clear, the authors see this
not as collapse and population decline, but as an adaptive response by
highly mobile agrarian societies. Their ability to adapt to challenging
environmental situations was fundamental to these agrarian societies’
resilience.
Juan Carlos Moreno García challenges the textual and archaeological
basis of narratives that see the changes in the Egyptian kingdom at the end
of the third millennium BCE as a form of collapse resulting from adverse
climate change. He argues that there is no clear evidence of climatic
events causing the collapse of the Egyptian political system. Instead, he
xx INTRODUCTION

sees changes in state structure as a readjustment of the balance of power

between the central government and the provinces at a time of intense
trade activities.
The next three chapters all deal with southern mainland Greece in the
second and first millennium BCE. A central issue concerns the end of the
Mycenaean palatial centres around 1200 BCE, often described in terms
of ‘collapse’, which was followed by a period of lower population levels
and societal complexity. Some modern scholars see this as triggered by a
prolonged period of lower precipitation that impacted societies not only
in Greece, but around the eastern Mediterranean as well. Erika Weiberg
and Martin Finné analyse those features of society in the Peloponnese
during the Bronze Age that determined their vulnerability to changing
environmental conditions, pointing on the one hand to a shift towards
growing centralization and homogenization in society, causing increased
vulnerability, on the other to regional variations in the extent of connec-
tivity that characterized the Mycenaean centres. Riia Timonen and Ann
Brysbaert investigate the pressure of prolonged adverse climate condi-
tions on Late Bronze Age societies, but emphasize that environmental
factors must be seen in combination with societal stress factors, such
as monumental construction programmes, and risk management strate-
gies. Though they conclude that no clear link between climatic events
and historical processes can be established on the basis of current data,
the combination of several years of drought and poor political decisions
could have left society susceptible to natural catastrophes and human
disasters. Anton Bonnier and Martin Finné relate paleoclimate data based
on local speleothems to land use dynamics over the first millennium BCE
(from the Early Geometric Period to the Roman era). They conclude
that there is a clear synchronicity between land use expansion and phases
of increasing humidity, while drier climate is linked land use contrac-
tions. Dry periods in the Late Hellenistic to Middle Roman period
impacted farming negatively. Moreover, increasing precipitation most of
all facilitated expansion into marginal areas.
Francis Ludlow and J. G. Manning argue that the impact of explosive
volcanic eruptions on the African Monsoon caused the suppression of the
Nile summer flood, which in itself affected agriculture in the Nile valley
negatively, while societal changes during the Ptolemaic era, such as the
emergence of new large urban areas, a rising population and the shift
towards drought-sensitive wheat production, increased the risks of food
shortages, famine and revolt.
 INTRODUCTION xxi

Two chapters examine rivers and riverine landscapes in the Roman

era. Under the heading environmental imperialism, Tyler V. Franconi
discusses the interplay between landscape and Roman political and
economic development. The Rhine and Thames river basins in the Roman
period offer insights into the relative impacts of anthropogenic and
climatological influence. The two cases show that climatic drivers played
relatively little part in the environmental change and that the relation-
ship between Rome and its environment must not be limited to climatic
factors. Moreover, the cyclical pattern of anthropogenic and environ-
mental change reflects the complexity of the environmental history of the
Roman Empire. Cynthia Bannon examines the influence of environmental
factors in Roman laws governing the use of rivers. The Tiber in Italy, Ebro
in Spain and Maeander in Asia Minor shared a pattern of seasonal rain-
fall and dry summers that affected their use for transportation, irrigation
and other purposes. Roman and local authorities used their knowledge of
climate and environment to adapt their policies to local circumstances.
Brandon McDonald suggests a catastrophic chain of causes and effects,
starting with volcanic eruptions in the 160 s, which spurred cold and dry
climatic phases in much of Eurasia. These brief periods of colder and drier
conditions improved conditions for the spread of smallpox, leading to the
so-called Antonine Plague. McDonald concludes that both the epidemic
and the climate change affected the various parts of the Roman Empire
differently, but notes that it is challenging on the basis of current data to
disentangle both factors as causes of regional crises.
The next chapters focus on agriculture and the wider economy in the
Roman world. Paul Erdkamp analyses the impact of climate change on
agricultural production in the Mediterranean region, using modern data
on the susceptibility of cereal crops to changes in temperature and precip-
itation. Changes in temperature in the Roman world remained by and
large within the tolerance range of most crops. Changes in precipita-
tion had potentially more impact, but were much more regionally varied,
which is particularly important in such a varied landscape as that of the
Mediterranean region. Moreover, ‘agriculture’ is not a fixed system, and
farmers, as much as the rest of society, responded to long-term changes
in climate. Hence, he argues that there is no compelling evidence to
assume a general catastrophic impact of climate trends in the Roman
era. Dimitri Van Limbergen and Wim De Clercq pose the question
whether the evidence for the geographical distribution of the cultivation
of such a climate-sensitive crop as vines can indicate climate change during
xxii INTRODUCTION

the Roman Climate Optimum. They conclude that at the moment the
evidence is inconclusive. Hence, they call for further detailed studies both
of viticulture and climate in the Roman world. Paul Kelly assesses the risks
that farmers in the Roman world experienced by comparing the impact of
climate-related risks with other factors that threatened their household’s
prosperity. He uses a stochastic model and Monte-Carlo simulation to
calculate the financial situation of various categories of farmers under a
variety of conditions over a period of 15 years. He concludes that small-
holders and petty landlords were relatively isolated from climate risks,
but that these risks were significant for tenants working under fixed rent
agreements.
Changes in Italy and provinces in the West during the second and
third centuries in settlement patterns, urban life and rural exploitation
have recently been linked to the end of the so-called Roman Climate
Optimum. Annalisa Marzano analyses the archaeological data for two
regions in Italy (Cisalpine Gaul and Tuscany) and points to local variations
in the changes in the landscape. These diverse and complex micro-
regional histories indicate that, while a partial and local impact of climate
change cannot be ruled out, many changes are better explained by societal
factors than environmental ones.
For many decades, uniform centuries-long climate eras dominated the
debate on climate change and its effects on past societies. Following a
trend in recent paleoclimate studies that is triggered by the increasing
temporal and spatial resolution of the proxy data, Elena Xoplaki et al.
move away from such viewpoints. Using the most recent proxy data
and climate models, they identify a sequence of dry and wet decadal
to multi-decadal intervals in the eastern Mediterranean in the fourth to
seventh centuries, as well as annual to multi-annual droughts. However,
they emphasize that these do not constitute ‘epochs of climate history’.
Brief periods of arid conditions in the eastern Mediterranean lead to an
increased frequency of subsistence crises that formed the background for
the increasing role that bishops at the time began to play in civic life.
Paolo Maranzana notes that western-central Anatolia showed marked
increase in rural occupation and agricultural production from the fourth
century CE to the mid-seventh century, when population and production
suddenly fell. On the basis of a study of agricultural activity, manufacture
and trade routes, he concludes that changes in climate had no signifi-
cant effect on the rural countryside in the Anatolian plateau. During this
period the communities in this region adapted to and resisted pressures
 INTRODUCTION xxiii

successfully. When changes came in the seventh century, this was more
the result of geopolitical than environmental shifts.
Arguing that the overall long-term trend across Mediterranean land-
scapes is more consistent with anthropogenic than climatic causation,
Dries Daems et al. focus at the micro-regional level to provide deeper
insight into human-environment interactions and resilience. On the basis
of an analysis of the region of Sagalassos (SW Turkey), the authors
conclude that changes in the landscape during the period from about
1550 BCE to 650 CE were a predominantly human-driven episode of
change, but that the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ was a climate-driven
event that set the parameters for a resurgence of human impact onto the
environment.
Within the disciplines of history and archaeology one will nowadays
find few ‘environmental determinists’ or ‘traditionalist deniers’, although
there is debate on the complex interplay between environmental and
human dynamics and the exact role that has to be assigned to past climate
change. ‘Diversity in collapse and resilience’ is part of the title of this
volume, and thus diversity is what we find it its chapters. Some authors
conclude that climate change played a major role in historical trajectories,
sometimes even determining the fate of kingdoms. Others emphasize that
we should not overestimate the impact of climate change on past societies
and that, in the particular cases that they studied, societal developments
can best be explained by societal factors. Other chapters have focused on
those features of societies that made them responsive to beneficial—and
vulnerable to adverse—climate change. Nevertheless, there seems to be
agreement that climate by itself does not explain world history and that
environmental factors always have to be understood in interplay with soci-
etal dynamics. If Ptolemaic Egypt was severely weakened by the effects
of volcanic eruptions on the Nile flood, it is emphasized, it was because
changes in society made it vulnerable to the harvest failures following
bad floods. Inevitably this makes the story more complicated than the
simplistic causalities between tree rings and falling empires that we find in
the narratives that are popular in general media. Paleoclimatologists have
an important role to play in the further development of this debate, as
their careful interpretation of the recent high-resolution data and latest
reconstructions of past climates emphasize much greater variability in
climate trends, moving away from the heterogeneous epochs that have
xxiv INTRODUCTION

misled historians to narrate world history in terms of Warm Periods and

rising empires, of climatic Dark Ages and doomed fates.

Paul Erdkamp
Joseph G. Manning
Koenraad Verboven

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 Contents

1 A Historian’s Introduction to Paleoclimatology 1

Paul Erdkamp
2 A Hard Row to Hoe: Ancient Climate Change
from the Crop Perspective 25
Frits Heinrich and Annette M. Hansen
3 Who Follows the Elephant Will Have Problems:
Thought on Modelling Roman Responses to Climate
(Changes) 81
Maurits Ertsen
4 Famines, Demographic Crises and Climate in Italy
1650–1913 103
Paolo Malanima
5 Collapse and Resilience in Prehistoric Archaeology:
Questioning Concepts and Causalities in Models
of Climate-Induced Societal Transformations 127
Caroline Heitz, Julian Laabs, Martin Hinz,
and Albert Hafner
6 Climate, State Building and Political Change in Egypt
During the Early Bronze Age: A Direct Relation? 201
Juan Carlos Moreno García

xxvii
xxviii CONTENTS

7 Vulnerability to Climate Change in Late Bronze Age

Peloponnese (Greece) 215
Erika Weiberg and Martin Finné
8 Saving Up for a Rainy Day? Climate Events,
Human-Induced Processes and Their Potential Effects
on People’s Coping Strategies in the Mycenaean
Argive Plain, Greece 243
Riia Timonen and Ann Brysbaert
9 Peloponnesian Land Use Dynamics and Climate
Variability in the First Millennium BCE 277
Anton Bonnier and Martin Finné
10 Volcanic Eruptions, Veiled Suns, and Nile Failure
in Egyptian History: Integrating Hydroclimate
into Understandings of Historical Change 301
Francis Ludlow and J. G. Manning
11 The Environmental Imperialism of the Roman
Empire in Northwestern Europe 321
Tyler V. Franconi
12 Seasonal Drought on Roman Rivers: Transport vs.
Irrigation 347
Cynthia J. Bannon
13 The Antonine Crisis: Climate Change as a Trigger
for Epidemiological and Economic Turmoil 373
Brandon T. McDonald
14 Climate Change and the Productive Landscape
in the Mediterranean Region in the Roman Period 411
Paul Erdkamp
15 Viticulture as a Climate Proxy for the Roman World?
Global Warming as a Comparative Framework
for Interpreting the Ancient Source Material in Italy
and the West (ca. 200 BC–200 AD) 443
Dimitri Van Limbergen and Wim De Clercq
16 Risks for Farming Families in the Roman World 485
Paul V. Kelly
 CONTENTS xxix

17 Figures in an Imperial Landscape: Ecological

and Societal Factors on Settlement Patterns
and Agriculture in Roman Italy 505
Annalisa Marzano
18 Hydrological Changes in Late Antiquity:
Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Socio-Economic
Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean 533
E. Xoplaki, J. Luterbacher, N. Luther, L. Behr,
S. Wagner, J. Jungclaus, E. Zorita, A. Toreti,
D. Fleitmann, A. Izdebski, and K. Bloomfield
19 Resilience and Adaptation at the End of Antiquity.
An Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change
in Late Roman Western-Central Anatolia 561
Paolo Maranzana
20 The Social Metabolism of Past Societies: A New
Approach to Environmental Changes and Societal
Responses in the Territory of Sagalassos (SW Turkey) 587
Dries Daems, Ralf Vandam, Sam Cleymans,
Nils Broothaerts, Stef Boogers, Hideko Matsuo,
and Adnan Mirhanoğlu

Index 615
 Notes on Contributors

Cynthia J. Bannon is Professor of Classical Studies at Indiana Univer-

sity, Bloomington. She has published two books on Roman Water Rights:
Gardens and Neighbors: Private Water Rights in Roman Italy (2009)
and A Casebook on Roman Water Law (2020). Her research investigates
Roman law and society as well as Roman literature.
Lorine Behr is a doctoral student at the Center for International
Development and Environmental Research and the Panel on Planetary
Thinking of Justus Liebig University Giessen. She is working on marine
and terrestrial compound extremes in the Mediterranean and on the
representation of Mediterranean Overflow Waters in climate models. Her
work is part of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
(BMBF) project ClimXtreme-CROP.
Kevin Bloomfield is currently a doctoral candidate at Cornell University
in the Department of History. His research focuses on the interactions
between climate, climate change and human history in the Roman and
Late Antique world. He is particularly interested in using information
derived from paleoclimate proxies to advance new readings on historical
texts, especially in the area of cultural history.
Anton Bonnier is a Researcher at the Department of Archaeology and
Ancient History, Uppsala University. He is an ancient historian and clas-
sical archaeologist who has worked extensively with ancient economies,
landscape dynamics and land use, and human-environment interactions

xxxi
xxxii NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

in Greece during the Archaic to Roman periods. For much of this work,
Bonnier uses GIS as a primary tool and he has designed new GIS-based
methodologies for the study of ancient agricultural land use.
Stef Boogers is a Ph.D. Researcher connected to both the Sagalassos
Archaeological Research Project and the Forest, Nature & Landscape
Division of KU Leuven. His research focuses on sustainability aspects of
wood consumption in the Sagalassos study area (SW Turkey) of the past
with a focus on the Roman period.
Dr. Nils Broothaerts is working at the Department of Earth and
Environmental Sciences at KU Leuven. His research focuses on human-
climate-environment interactions in the past, using a combination of
palynological and geomorphological data. In his recent work, pollen data
were used to reconstruct past human impact on the environment, for
areas in Turkey, Spain and Madagascar. Linking these reconstructions with
geomorphological data provides a better insight on how societies have
shaped the current landscape.
Ann Brysbaert is Professor in Ancient Technologies, Materials and Crafts
and PI of the SETinSTONE project (ERC–CoG–646667) at Leiden
University, Faculty of Archaeology. She has published extensively on
Aegean and East Mediterranean Bronze Age technologies, materials and
technological transfer in monumental architecture, workshop studies and
in ancient economies. Since 2010, her research has broadened further to
include the socio-economic interaction patterns present in the complex
human-environment relationships in the East Mediterranean.
Sam Cleymans wrote a doctoral dissertation at KU Leuven (Belgium)
on the health and quality of life of the Roman and Middle Byzantine
populations of the ancient site of Sagalassos (SW Turkey). For his post-
doctoral research within the Sagalassos Archaeological Research Project
(KU Leuven, Belgium), he focuses on the regional variation and change
of mortuary culture in Hellenistic and Roman Asia Minor.
Dries Daems is Assistant Professor in Settlement Archaeology and Digital
Archaeology at Middle East Technical University. He is also affiliated
with the Sagalassos Project at University of Leuven. His research inter-
ests include social complexity, agent-based modelling, pottery studies and
human–environment interactions.
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xxxiii

Wim Declercq lectures on Historical Archaeology in Northwestern

Europe in the department of Archaeology at Ghent University.
Paul Erdkamp is Professor of Ancient History at the Vrije Universiteit
Brussel. Most of his work deals with the economic history of the Roman
world, with a special interest in nutrition and food supply. His other
research interests include Roman republican historiography and societal
and environmental aspects of warfare.
Maurits Ertsen is Associate Professor within the Water Resources
Management group of Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
Maurits studies how longer-term water practices emerge from short-term
actions of human and non-human agents in current, historical and archae-
ological periods in places ranging from Peru to the Near East. Maurits is
one of two editors of the journal Water History and coordinating editor
of the Tijdschrift voor Waterstaatsgeschiedenis.
Martin Finné is Researcher at the Department of Archaeology and
Ancient History, Uppsala University and Senior Lecturer at the Depart-
ment of Social and Economic Geography, Uppsala University. His main
research focus is on paleoclimatology and socio-environmental dynamics
of the Peloponnese, southern mainland Greece. He has written syntheses
about Holocene climate in the Mediterranean and produced paleoclimate
reconstructions from stable isotopes extracted from stalagmites collected
in the Peloponnese.
Dominik Fleitmann is Professor of Quaternary Geology at the Depart-
ment of Environmental Sciences at the University of Basel, Switzerland.
As geochemist and paleoclimatologist, he is using natural climate archives
such as stalagmites to reconstruct climatic and environmental changes
during the Holocene and Late Pleistocene. His recent research activities
focus on climate-human interactions in the Middle East and Europe, with
a particular focus on the Fertile Crescent and southern Arabia.
Tyler V. Franconi is a Visiting Assistant Professor of Archaeology in
the Joukowsky Institute for Archaeology & the Ancient World at Brown
University in the United States. His research focuses on the economic
and environmental history of the Roman Empire in western Europe. He
has conducted fieldwork in the United States, Tunisia and with numerous
projects in Italy, where he currently co-directs the Upper Sabina Tiberina
Project in Vacone, Lazio.
xxxiv NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Juan Carlos Moreno García is a CNRS Senior Researcher at the

Sorbonne University, specialized in pharaonic administration and socio-
economic history. Recent publications include The State in Ancient Egypt
(2019) and Dynamics of Production in the Ancient Near East (2016). He
is also chief-editor of The Journal of Egyptian History (Brill), of the series
Ancient Egypt in Context (Cambridge University Press) and Multidisci-
plinary Approaches to Ancient Societies (Oxbow Books), and area editor
of the UCLA Encyclopedia of Egyptology.
Albert Hafner holds a full professorship in Prehistoric Archaeology
and is member of the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
(OCCR) at the University of Bern, Switzerland. His research interests
include Holocene human-environment relationships, social developments
and elites, burial rites, underwater archaeology and alpine archaeology.
Main ongoing research projects funded by the Swiss National Science
Foundation and the European Research Council are related to lake-side
settlements in the Alpine Space and the Balkans.
Annette M. Hansen studied Classical and Near Eastern Archaeology
and Arabic Studies (BA, 2010) at Bryn Mawr College and obtained
an M.Sc. in Archaeological Science at the University of Oxford (Keble
College, 2012). She is currently completing her Ph.D. project: The
Agricultural Economy of Islamic Jordan, from the Arab Conquest until
the Early Ottoman Period in which she combines written and (ethno-
)archaeobotanical sources. She is senior archaeobotanist at different
archaeological projects in Jordan and Israel.
Frits Heinrich is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Departments of History
and Chemistry at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel. His main interests are
premodern agricultural economics, historical climate change, diet, and
the nutritional biochemistry of ancient crops and foodstuffs, in particular
for Greco-Roman Egypt. He approaches these topics through combining
(ethno-)archaeobotany, (stable isotope) biochemistry, economics and
papyrology. He is also senior archaeobotanist on projects in Egypt and
Sudan and leads several historical farming experiments.
Caroline Heitz is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the School of
Archaeology, University of Oxford (UK). Her current research is focused
on resilience and vulnerability, mobility and translocality as well as human-
thing and human-environment relations in the prehistoric past. She
uses practice-theoretical and social-archaeological approaches, which she
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xxxv

combines with methods from the natural sciences and humanities. In her
doctoral thesis, conducted at the Institute of Archaeological Sciences at
the University of Bern, she used pottery practices to investigate ques-
tions of mobility, entanglements and transformations in Neolithic wetland
settlement communities in the northern Alpine Foreland.
Martin Hinz is a Senior Researcher at the Institute of Archaeolog-
ical Sciences, Department of Prehistoric Archaeology at the University
of Bern, Switzerland. He explores quantitative methods and theoretical
issues in the context of the European Neolithic and Early Bronze Age.
For the analysis of the long–term development of human–environment
interactions, this involves the integration of archaeological and scientific
analyses and the causal identification and interpretation of environmental
impacts on human activities.
Adam Izdebski is independent group leader at the Max Planck Insti-
tute of the Science of Human History in Jena and Associate Professor
at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. An interdisciplinary historian,
he focuses on the Mediterranean and Central Europe, trying to integrate
natural scientific and humanistic approaches to the past.
Johann Jungclaus is a Senior Scientist and Research Group Leader at
the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. He has long-
standing expertise in the development and application of climate models.
The focus of his research is coupled ocean-atmosphere variability on inter-
annual to centennial timescales. He coordinates the simulations of climate
over the Common Era in the framework of the Paleo Model Intercom-
parison Project. He is member of the WCRP Working Group on Coupled
Models.
Paul V. Kelly recently completed his doctorate in Ancient History
at King’s College London after retiring from a successful career as a
consulting actuary. He has degrees in Mathematics and Physics, History
and Archaeology and Classical Civilisation. He lived and worked in
Brussels, Dublin, London and Paris for more than 30 years, advising
multinational companies and pension funds. He represented the actuarial
profession at EU level at the European Insurance and Occupational
Pensions Authority.
xxxvi NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Julian Laabs is a Prehistoric Archaeologist and a Postdoctoral Researcher

at the Institute of Pre- and Protohistoric Archaeology at the Christian-
Albrechts University Kiel, Germany. He conducted his Ph.D. Population
and Land-Use Modelling of Neolithic and Bronze Age Western Switzerland
at the Institute of Archaeological Sciences, Department of Prehistoric
Archaeology at the University of Bern, Switzerland. His current research
focuses on archaeodemography and socio-ecological systems in prehistory
and classical antiquity.
Francis Ludlow is Assistant Professor of Medieval Environmental
History at the Trinity Centre for Environmental Humanities, and Depart-
ment of History, Trinity College Dublin. He is a climate historian (and
historical climatologist) with expertise in the integration of human and
natural archives from the Ancient and Medieval periods. He has previously
held fellowships in Harvard, Yale and LMU Munich.
Jürg Luterbacher is the Director of Science and Innovation and the
Chief Scientist of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). He
has demonstrated leadership and excellence in a broad spectrum of climate
science and contributed significantly to the holistic Climate-Earth System
approach. He is a pioneer in paleoclimate science of Europe and Asia.
He was a lead author of the 5th IPCC Assessment Report chapter 5
‘Information from Paleoclimate Archives’.
Niklas Luther achieved a Bachelor Degree in Mathematics and Geog-
raphy and is currently completing his Master Degree in Mathematics at
the Justus Liebig University Giessen. His focus has been on statistics in
climate science, mainly working on long-memory processes, structural
change and stable distributions. After his M.Sc. Degree, he will start
his Ph.D. studies in the frame of the H2020 project ‘CLImate INTel-
ligence: Extreme Events Detection, Attribution and Adaptation Design
using Machine Learning’.
Paolo Malanima is Professor of Compared Economies and Develop-
ment Economics in the «Magna Graecia» University (Catanzaro). Among
his publications are: ‘Italy in the Renaissance: A Leading Economy in
the European Context, 1350–1550’, in ‘Economic History Review’,
71, 1, 2018; ‘The Italian Economy Before Unification’, in Oxford
Research Encyclopedia, Economics and Finance, 2020; ‘The Limiting
Factor: Energy, Growth, and Divergence, 1820–1913’, in Economic
History Review, 73, 2, 2020.
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xxxvii

Joseph G. Manning is the William K. and Marilyn M. Simpson Professor

of History and of Classics, with appointments also in the Department
of Near Eastern Languages and Civilizations, Yale Law School, and the
School of the Environment. His research has two primary research foci,
the economic and legal History of the Hellenistic world, with a focus on
Ptolemaic Egypt, and Egyptian history in the long run.
Paolo Maranzana is an Assistant Professor in Roman Archaeology and
History, the Department of History at Boğaziçi University in Istanbul.
His research focuses on the development and breakdown of the Roman
urban system at the end of Antiquity (4th–7th c. CE) in modern-day
Turkey (especially Central Anatolia and Black Sea coast) in the light of
significant political, economic and environmental change.
Annalisa Marzano (Ph.D. 2004, Columbia University, NY) is Professor
of Ancient History at the University of Reading. She has published on
a wide range of topics related to the social and economic history of the
Roman world. She is the author of two monographs, Roman Villas in
Central Italy (Leiden, 2007) and Harvesting the Sea (Oxford, 2013) and
has participated in numerous archaeological projects. Currently, she co-
directs the ‘Casa della Regina Carolina Project’ at Pompeii.
Hideko Matsuo is affiliated with the Center for Sociological Research
(CeSO) at University of Leuven. She worked as a Senior Researcher and
the Project Coordinator for the University of Leuven Geconcerteerde
Onderzoeksactie (GOA) project ‘New Approaches to the Social Dynamics
of Long-Term Fertility Change’ (Grant GOA/14/001, https://soc.kul
euven.be/ceso/fapos/nasdltfc/index).
Brandon T. McDonald is a Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer in
the Department of Ancient History at the University of Basel, currently
working on the influence of climate change and disease in third-century
Roman Egypt. Trained first as a historian and classicist at Columbia
University, he completed his doctoral studies in Classical Archaeology at
Oxford, with a thesis titled, Climate Change and Major Plagues in the
Roman Period, which he is now turning into a monograph.
Adnan Mirhanoğlu is a Ph.D. Researcher at the Department of Earth
and Environmental Sciences in the University of Leuven as a part of the
Sagalassos Archeological Research Project. His research mainly focuses
on how technology, social relations and infrastructure affect access to
irrigation water.
xxxviii NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Riia Timonen is a Ph.D. Candidate at Leiden University, Faculty of

Archaeology, where she furthers her research on Mycenaean farming prac-
tices and the agricultural potential of the Late Bronze Age Argive Plain,
Greece. Her research interests include ancient agricultural economies, the
Aegean Bronze Age, and environmental and landscape archaeology.
Andrea Toreti is a Senior Scientist at the Joint Research Centre of the
European Commission. He graduated in Mathematics at the University of
Rome ‘La Sapienza’ and got a Ph.D. in Climate Sciences at the University
of Bern. His research is focused on: climate variability, predictability and
extremes; climate change, impacts and adaptation in agriculture; climate
services; statistical climatology.
Ralf Vandam is a Senior Postdoctoral Fellow of the Research Founda-
tion—Flanders (FWO) at the Sagalassos Archaeological Research Project
of the KU Leuven and a part-time Professor of Archaeology in the
Department of Art Studies and Archaeology at the Vrije Universiteit
Brussel. He is a landscape archaeologist with a special focus on human-
environment interactions in the past.
Dimitri Van Limbergen is currently a Senior Postdoctoral Fellow of
the Research Foundation—Flanders (FWO) in the department of Archae-
ology at Ghent University.
Koenraad Verboven is Professor of Ancient History at Ghent University,
Belgium. He has published extensively on ancient social and economic
history, including the monograph The Economy of friends: Economic aspects
of amicitia and patronage in the late Republic and six edited volumes on
Roman economic and legal history.
Sebastian Wagner is a Research Scientist at the Climate Extremes and
Impacts group at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht. His main focus is
on regional and global climate simulations for the Holocene and the last
two millennia. A second focus of his work is the application of pseudo
proxy experiments for testing climate reconstructions. He was involved in
the core group of the PAGES2k initiative EuroMed2k reconstructing the
climate over Europe during the last 2,000 years.
Erika Weiberg is Researcher and Associated Professor at the Department
of Archaeology and Ancient History, Uppsala University. She is an Aegean
prehistorian with a strong interdisciplinary profile, specializing in soci-
etal transformations and studies of human-environment dynamics. She has
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xxxix

published extensively and directed several projects that all serve to high-
light the interplay between humans and their surroundings over different
timescales by utilizing a wide variety of datasets, theories and methods
and producing a synthetic whole.
Elena Xoplaki is Senior Scientist, currently Acting Head of the Clima-
tology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change Research Group at
Justus Liebig University Giessen. She is an expert on climate variability
and change in the past, present and future with spatial focus on the
greater Mediterranean region. She conducts multi- and interdisciplinary
research and promotes collaboration between humanities, social and
natural sciences on an international level. She is a Fellow of the European
Academy of Sciences.
Eduardo Zorita Senior Scientist at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
is focused on the analysis of climate variability over the past centuries,
based on climate simulations and the analysis of proxy data (e.g. tree
rings). The goals are the identification of the fingerprint of the external
drivers of past climate (solar variability, volcanic eruptions), and the anal-
ysis of the internal mechanisms and their potential predictability. Main
tool is the statistical data analysis, including machine learning methods.
 List of Figures

Fig. 2.1 Grain field with different cereal taxa (detail, bottom
right) nearby the archaeological site of Qara el-Hamra
in the Karanis concession, Fayum, Egypt. August 14,
2018 (Photo F. B. J. Heinrich) 39
Fig. 2.2 Sheep stubble grazing on a tomato field outside of Safi,
Jordan, February 12, 2018 (Photo A. M. Hansen) 65
Fig. 4.1 The population of central and northern Italy
in 1310–1910 (decadal data) and 1650–1913 (yearly
data) (000) (Sources For the period 1650–1913
the sources are the same of Table 4.1. For the previous
period, see Malanima 2002, 359–369) 106
Fig. 4.2 Yearly rates of demographic increase in central-northern
Italy 1650–1913 (%) (Note The dates refer to the most
negative yearly percentages. The trend is calculated
through the Hodrick-Prescott filter [L = 1600]. Natural
demographic increase is computed for any year as:
[Births–Deaths]/Population; Sources See the sources
of Fig. 4.4) 107
Fig. 4.3 Set of causal linkages from climate change to mortality
and fertility 108

xli
xlii LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 4.4 Birth (CBR), death (CDR) and marriage rates (CMR)
in central-northern Italy (per thousand) 1650–1913
(Sources Galloway [1994]. Since the article by Galloway
stops in 1881, I completed the series of CBR, CDR
and CMR through the following sources [including
also the period 1861–1881 in order to verify the already
available data]: ISTAT [1958]; ISTAT [1965]; Tendenze
evolutive della mortalità infantile in Italia [1975]) 109
Fig. 4.5 Deviations from the Hodrick-Prescott (L = 1600) trend
of Crude Death Rates (CDR) and Crude Birth Rates
(CBR) in central-northern Italy 1650–1913 (%) (Sources
See Fig. 4.3) 110
Fig. 4.6 Daily real wages of masons and yearly per capita GDP
(1861 Italian lire) (Sources Malanima [2013] for wages
and Malanima [2011] for GDP) 111
Fig. 4.7 Deviations from the trend of real wage and per capita
GDP rates in central-northern Italy 1650–1913 (Source
Malanima 2011, 2007) 112
Fig. 4.8 Deviations of yearly temperatures from the trend
in Italy 1650–1913 (%) (Source Leonelli et al. [2017],
Supplement to the article) 118
Fig. 5.1 Absolute and relative frequencies of publications
with the keyword combinations ‘archaeology + collapse’
and ‘archaeology + resilience’ since 1950 (Data:
WorldCat) 130
Fig. 5.2 Cultural cycles from the Neolithic to the Iron Age
in central Europe in relation to the size of deliberately
cooperating groups, regional variability is displayed
by dashed lines according to personal judgement, LBK
Bandkeramik (Linear Pottery), MN Middle Neolithic,
MK Michelsberg Culture, eBA early Bronze Age, UK
Urnfield Culture, lHA Iron Age late Hallstatt/early
Latène princely sites, lLT Iron Age oppida of late Latène
(Zimmermann 2012, Fig. 3, reprinted from Quaternary
International, Vol. 274, Zimmermann, ‘Cultural cycles
in central Europe during the Holocene’, 251–258,
Copyright (2012), with permission from Elsevier) 138
 LIST OF FIGURES xliii

Fig. 5.3 Adaptive cycles for RT appropriated for archaeology,

Build-up of adaptive cycles and nested cycles in time
(a–c) (Gronenborn et al. 2014, Fig. 2, reprinted
from Journal of Archaeological Science, Vol. 51,
Gronenborn et al., ‘Adaptive cycles’ and climate
fluctuations: A case study from Linear Pottery Culture
in western Central Europe, 73–83, Copyright (2014),
with permission from Elsevier) and the concept
of cyclical social resilience strategies (social diversity)
and archaeological markers (stylistic diversity)
(d) (Gronenborn et al. 2017, Fig. 1, reprinted
from Quaternary International, Vol. 446, Gronenborn
et al., ‘Population dynamics, social resilience strategies,
and Adaptive Cycles in early farming societies
of SW Central Europe’, 54–65, Copyright (2017),
with permission from Elsevier) 140
Fig. 5.4 Adaptive Cycle (AC) of the LBK based on data
from Württemberg with phases of increased precipitation
shaded (a) (Gronenborn et al. 2014, Fig. 4, reprinted
from Journal of Archaeological Science, Vol. 51,
Gronenborn et al., ‘Adaptive cycles’ and climate
fluctuations: A case study from Linear Pottery Culture
in western Central Europe, 73–83, Copyright (2014),
with permission from Elsevier) and their latest model
using additional archaeological and paleoclimatic
proxies (b) (Gronenborn et al. 2017, Fig. 4, reprinted
from Quaternary International, Vol. 446, Gronenborn
et al., ‘Population dynamics, social resilience strategies,
and Adaptive Cycles in early farming societies
of SW Central Europe’, 54–65, Copyright (2017),
with permission from Elsevier) 141
Fig. 5.5 Distribution of Neolithic wetland and dry land sites,
burials as well as scatter finds in the northern Alpine
foreland, data is only representive for the area of today’s
Switzerland (Doppler and Ebersbach 2014, 59, data
after Ebersbach (unpubl.), reprinted with permission
from the authors) 146
Fig. 5.6 Absolute frequency of tree cutting (felling) phases
of wooden piles in years, calculated for Neolithic
and Bronze Age settlements in western Switzerland,
subdivided by periods (after Laabs 2019) 148
xliv LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 5.7 Lakeshore settlement layouts from the 5th to the 3rd
millennium BCE in eastern France, Switzerland
and southern Germany (after Hafner et al. 2016,
Fig. 61, © Landesdenkmalamt Baden-Württemberg,
reprinted with permission) 149
Fig. 5.8 Correlation of warmer and colder periods
with dendrochronologically dated wetland sites
between 4500 and 1350 BCE. Settlement gaps
with no preserved sites are indicated (after Suter et al.
2005, Fig. 37, © Archäologischer Dienst Bern, Max
Stöckli, reprinted with permission) 153
Fig. 5.9 Holocene climate fluctuations and archaeological
findings at the Schnidejoch as well as comparison
of different Holocene climate indicators. (a) Total
solar irradiance. (b) Alpine glacier fluctuations. (c)
Radiocarbon data Schnidejoch (2011). (d) Tree line
eastern central Alps relative to today. e. Average solar
irradiance relative to today (after Nussbaumer, S., F.
Steinhilber, M. Trachsel et al. 2011. ‘Alpine climate
during the Holocene: a comparison between records
of glaciers, lake sediments and solar activity’, Journal
of quaternary science JQS, 26 (7): Fig. 7. Reprinted
with permission from John Wiley and Sons) 160
Fig. 5.10 Summary of the climate proxies/forces (A) volcanic
sulphates (Zielinski-Mershon 1997), (B) total solar
radiation (TSI) (Data: Steinhilber et al. 2012), (C) 14 C
(data: Reimer et al. 2004), (D) homogeneity curve
(Data: Schmidt and Gruhle 2003) (after Laabs 2019,
Fig. 143) 161
Fig. 5.11 Alpine tree line (after Nicolussi 2009, Fig. 6, reprinted
with the permission from IUP-Innsbruck University
Press) 162
Fig. 5.12 Holocene climate fluctuations, percentage concentration
of rock abrasion in drill cores of the North Atlantic,
high peaks are regarded as tracers for the increased
penetration of icebergs to the south (from Bond et al.
[2001]. ‘Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic
Climate During the Holocene’, Science 294: Fig. 2.
Reprinted with permission from AAAS) 163
 LIST OF FIGURES xlv

Fig. 5.13 Lakeshore settlements in the Three-Lake-Region

mapped out in third century steps from 3600 to 3467
cal. BCE as well as the variations of Be10 -concentrations,
for the symbol legend see Fig. 5.16 164
Fig. 5.14 Lakeshore settlements in the Three-Lake-Region
mapped out in third century steps from 3467 to 3334
cal. BCE as well as the variations of Be10 -concentrations,
for the symbol legend see Fig. 5.16 165
Fig. 5.15 Lakeshore settlements in the Three-Lake-Region
mapped out in third century steps from 3334 to 3200
cal. BCE as well as the variations of Be10 -concentrations,
for the symbol legend see Fig. 5.16 166
Fig. 5.16 Lakeshore settlements in the Three-Lake-Region
mapped out in third century steps from 3200 to 3100
cal. BCE as well as the variations of Be10 -concentrations 167
Fig. 5.17 Settlement layouts and histories of Murten-Pantschau
at Lake Murten (a) and Sutz-Lattrigen-Riedstation
at Lake Bienne (b) (after Crivelli et al. 2012, Fig. 22,
© Service archéologique de l’Etat de Fribourg (SAEF),
Michel Mauvilly; after Hafner and Suter 2000, Fig. 49,
© Archäologischer Dienst des Kantons Bern, René
Buschor, reprinted with permission) 169
Fig. 5.18 The bay of Lattrigen at Lake Bienne with the settlements
of Sutz-Lattrigen-Hauptstation-Innen, Riedstation
and Neue Station (after Hafner 2010, Fig. 1 and 3, ©
Archäologischer Dienst Bern, Andreas Zwahlen; Hafner
2005, Fig. 43, © Archäologischer Dienst Bern, René
Buschor, reprinted with permission) 172
Fig. 5.19 Temporal rhythms of settlement construction practices
and indications of failed settlements at Lake Morat
and Bienne around 3400 BCE 173
Fig. 5.20 Fluctuation in settlement activities based on absolute
frequencies of settlements on Lake Morat, Bienne
and Neuchâtel (4300–800 BCE), black: felling phases
indicating maximum settlement duration <= 35 years,
grey: >= 35 years (Laabs 2019) 176
Fig. 5.21 Map of the 5 speleothem datasets used in relation
to the location of the Three-Lake-Region (Background
Map: Natural Earth Data) 177
xlvi LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 5.22 Comparison of settlement intensity with the number

of dry events according to Wanner et al. (2011).
Left: the respective curves. Top right: representation
of the coincidence of the identified events as trigger
or precursor. Bottom right: result of the significance
tests against the random models, the shuffle p-value is
mostly considered 178
Fig. 5.23 Comparison of settlement intensity with the δO18 values
from speleothems (see text) extracted from the SISAL
database. Structure like Fig. 5.21 179
Fig. 5.24 Comparison of settlement intensity with the Be10 values
according to Nussbaumer et al. (2011). Structure like
Fig. 5.21, coincidence of maxima 180
Fig. 5.25 Comparison of settlement intensity with the Be10 values
according to Nussbaumer et al. (2011). Structure like
Fig. 5.21, coincidence of minima 181
Fig. 7.1 Map of the Peloponnese showing areas of intensive
archaeological survey projects utilized in the present
study (A–D), as well as the locations of the Mycenaean
palaces in Pylos, Mycenae and Tiryns and the Mavri
Trypa Cave. (A) Southern Argolid Exploration
Project (Jameson et al. 1994), (B) Methana Survey
Project (Mee and Forbes 1997), (C) Berbati-Limnes
Archaeological Survey (Wells and Runnels 1996),
and (D) Pylos Regional Archaeological Project
(Davis et al. 1996, 1997). Note that not all land
within the red areas was surveyed. Green to brown
shading shows the current day interpolated mean annual
precipitation on the Peloponnese and in surrounding
areas (in the range of 374–906 mm per year).
The interpolation is based on precipitation data
from the meteorological stations indicated by black dots 217
 LIST OF FIGURES xlvii

Fig. 7.2 Paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental information

presented on an absolute time scale. (a) Climate
stability as indicated by the calculated standard
deviation of stable oxygen isotopes in Mavri Trypa Cave
in 100-year blocks. Lower values (up) indicate more
stable climate conditions. (b) Stable oxygen isotope data
from Mavri Trypa Cave interpreted to reflect variability
in moisture during the growth period 1860–1000 BC
(for details regarding interpretations see Finné et al.
2017). More negative values indicate more moisture.
The LBA growth period is preceded and superseded
by growth hiatuses interpreted to reflect dry conditions.
(c) Synthesised Anthropogenic Pollen Indicators (API)
from southern mainland Greece providing a measure
of overall human pressure on the landscape based
on pollen data from sites located on the Peloponnese
and adjacent areas (for details, see Weiberg et al. 2019a;
Woodbridge et al. 2019) 221
Fig. 7.3 Examples of site clusters and resulting EPLU surfaces
based on data for LH IIIA–B (each including two
sub phases) from the Berbati-Limnes Archaeological
Project (Wells and Runnels 1996). Kernels illustrate
three different density levels: maximum (yellow
shading), medium (orange) and high-density (red).
Site size levels are based on the following division: 1
= Very small, 0–0.2 ha, 2 = Small, 0.3–0.19 ha, 3
= Intermediate, 1.0–4.9, 4 = Medium, 5.0–9.99 ha
(Adapted from Bonnier et al. 2019: Fig. 2) 225
Another random document with
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leikillinen Miina!" sanoi hän ihastuneena.

Hiljaa keinuili vene järven pinnalla, onnellista paria kantoi se.

Sydän oli taasen tavannut sydämmen; ne olivat olleet eroitettuna, ja
tuskalliselta tuntui se ero, luonto kun oli ne yhteen kasvattanut.

Ilta oli kulunut jo myöhäksi, kun uusi vene saapui rantaan ja

maalle nousivat onnelliset soutelijat; käsikädessä astuivat he, he
olisivat tahtoneet vaikka koko maailmalle sanoa, että rakastivat
toisiaan ja olivat onnelliset.

"Tänään on käynyt tytölle hyvin!" nauroi Pekka, nähdessään

tyttärensä iloisena ja vilkkaana.

"Oikein arvattu, niin onkin!" vastasi Miina.

Eräänä kauniina elokuun iltapäivänä soutaa Ruuhkajärvellä

moniaita veneitä. Etummaisessa niistä näemme entiset nuoret
tuttavamme. He palaavat pappilasta, jossa ovat vannoneet ikuista
uskollisuutta toisillensa ja saaneet papillisen siunauksen; nyt ovat
Kalle ja Miina laillinen aviopari. Morsiamen kasvot loistavat
onnellisuudesta, hänen kantaissaan helähtelevää morsiuskruunua;
ihastuttavan katseen loi hän onnelliseen ylkäänsä, joka vakavana
rinnalla istuu.

Samassa veneessä vastapäätä morsiusparia istuu nuori iloisen

näköinen herrasmies, sehän on ennen tuntemamme Alpert herra,
joka nyt seuraa pientä hääjoukkoa takamaille.

"Onpa hauskaa kun tanssitaankin illalla", puhuu Alpert, "mutta

enpä vielä kysynytkään, kukas tulee soittamaan?"

"Hm, Puumalan Antti!"

 "Hyvä, Antti soittaa kauniisti, sen olen kuullut?" Kaksi muuta
venettä seurasi jo mainittua. Niissä oli morsiusparin sukulaisia ja
tuttavia, paraastaan nuorta väkeä ja hilpeällä mielellä kulki seurue
rantaa kohden.

Rannalla oli tuttavia vastassa ja siitä yksissä lähdettiin torpille,

jotka olivat koristetut lehtipuilla ja muilla viheriöillä kasveilla mitä
ihanimmaksi.

"Ohoo, täällähän ollaan kuin esivanhempaimme paratiisissa",

huudahti
Alpert herra, astuissaan Alamaan pihaan.

"Niin sitä nyt ollaan! mutta harvoin onkin häisiä päiviä", sanoi
Pekka, joka oli pihalla vastassa.

"Harvoin kyllä, mutta hyvä kun joskuskin!"

"Jaa, hyvä kyllä, ja vielä parempi että tekin tulitte niihin osaa
ottamaan, vaikka ei täällä ole paljoa tarjona!"

"Toivon sentään ettei hauskuudesta ole puutetta!"

"Eipä pitäisi", jatkoi Pekka vilkkaasti, "tämä on tanssitalo, johon

tullaan iltaa viettämään, käymme nyt ensiksi tuonne minun mökilleni,
siellä se on pelimannikin, vetää marssia, että korpi raikuu!"

Pihalla oli Mikkokin vieraita vastassa, sanoen heitä tervetulleiksi,

kävi hänkin joukkoon, ja niin lähdettiin morsiustaloon. Siellä oli
oivallinen hääpöytä laitettu, olikin nyt oikein varsinainen kokki
ruokien teossa, joita nuoret pojat pöydälle kantoivat.
 Hääpöydässä toivotti Alpert herra onnea nuorelle pariskunnalle ja
lupasi häälahjaksi Kallelle Alamaan torpan nautinnon samoilla
ehdoilla kuin tähänkin asti.

"Onpas siinä lahjaa, pila vieköön", sanoi Pekka, "eipä Mikolla

olekaan enää juuri mökin maat!"

"Se on teidän työnne ja ansionne", sanoi Alpert, "ilman teitä ei

kukaties näillä takamailla olisi yhtä peltosarkaa, eikä niittulappua,
ilman teitä olisi tämä mitätön räme, sutten ja karhuin pesäpaikka.
Mutta rehellinen, uupumaton työ palkitsee tekijänsä, samalla
hyödyttäin koko kansaa ja isänmaata. Senpätähden lupaan
mielelläni nämät maat näille nuorille; ei se oikeastaan tulekkaan
heille miksikään lahjaksi, vaan oikeutettuna perintönä" ja, jatkoi hän
morsianta silmiin katsoen, "toinen torppa tulee Miinan myötäjäisinä,
tietysti vasta sitte, kun ei Pekka sitä enää tarvitse."

"Te olette jalo mies", sanoi Mikko, "nyt vasta voimmekin viettää
oikein iloisia häitä, koska tiedämme, että näitten toimeentulo on
turvattu vielä sittenkin, kun me vanhat olemme päivämme
päättäneet, ja kyllä kai niin kauan sovimme."

"Aivan hyvin", sanoi Pekka, "ystävyys on täällä ollut paras

tukemme kovinakin aikoina, kestäneehän sitä eteenkinpäin!"

"Minä", sanoi Kalle Alpertille, "saan teitä kiittää sekä aineellisista

että henkisistä eduista. Jos ette nuoruudessani olisi ravintoa
hankkinut kaipaavalle hengelleni, kuka tietää mitä olisi minusta
tullut!"

"Vaan tuossa tuodaan paistia", sanoi Alpert, "isketäänpäs siihen ja

morsiusparin kunniaksi, hyvällä ruokahalulla!"
 "Oikein hyvällä", sanoi Pekka, "ja iloisella mielellä, vaikka ollaankin
täällä metsän sydämmessä!"

Iloisella mielellä näytti jokainen olevan ja vilkkaasti haastellessa

kului ilta. Silloin rupesivat nuoret muistuttelemaan, että olisi tanssin
aika ja pelimanni etunenässä kulki hääjoukko Mikon laveaan tupaan,
viihdyttämään tanssi-intoaan.

Iloisina tanssivat nuoret, mutta kaikista iloisin oli Alpert herra, hän
tanssi, laski leikkiä ujosteleville tytöille, häntä huvitti nähdä kansansa
lapsia heidän teeskentelemättömässä yksinkertaisuudessaan.

Toisen päivän ikäpuolella läksivät vieraat kukin kotiaan vieden

hauskoja muistoja muassaan näistä kaikinpuolin niin iloisista häistä.

Syksypuoleen eräänä sunnuntai-iltana istui nuori pariskunta

Ruuhkajärven rannalla, katsellen, miten laineet loiskuivat rantaa
vasten. Äänetönnä istuivat he käsikädessä, näkyipä pari kirkasta
kyyneltä nuoren naisen silmissä, mutta ne eivät olleet surun, ei —
entisajan muistot saivat ne uhkumaan.

"Oi sinä tuttava järvi", huudahti Kalle, "kuinka monta kertaa

olenkaan pinnallasi soudellut, myrskyssä ja tyyneellä. Tuolla", sanoi
hän, "olen soudellut monta kertaa onnellisena, mutta myöskin
onnettomana, sydän särkymäisillään! Mutta onnettomuuteni olikin
vaan luultua, ei todellista; olen löytänyt rauhaa sydämmelleni ja
saanut omakseni sen, jota rakastin, jota rakastan enemmin kuin
omaa itseäni."

Miina painoi päänsä Kallen rinnoille, kuiskaten: "Oi Kalle, minä en

ansaitse niin suurta rakkautta, luontoni on paha, mutta minä koetan
tulla paremmaksi!"
 "Ole sinä vaan semmoinen kuin olet, semmoisena olen sinua
rakastanut ja rakastan, semmoisena olet sinä elämäni ihana
päivänpaiste ja sydämeni paras ilo!" sanoi Kalle hymyillen.

Loppu.
 *** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK TAKAMAAN
TORPPARIT ***

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