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Secdocument 4417
“Putin’s barbaric war in Ukraine tests our European Union as never before. Since
the invasion on 24 February 2022, we have seen unity among EU member states
and staunch solidarity with Ukraine. It is important that this continues. But what
are the options for the next steps with regard to the future of the EU? Increased
federalism or more flexible integration? This volume offers valuable answers
and insights regarding a wide selection of key issues, ranging from the rule of
law to economic, security and industrial policy, as well as income inequality.
The volume provides a rich source of essential knowledge on the state of the
European Union.”
—Anders Ahnlid, Director General of National Board of Trade Sweden. Formerly
Sweden’s ambassador to Finland, the European Union and the OECD, and
Director General for Trade in the Ministry for Foreign Affairs
Antonina Bakardjieva Engelbrekt ·
Per Ekman · Anna Michalski · Lars Oxelheim
Editors
The EU
between Federal
Union and Flexible
Integration
Interdisciplinary European Studies
Editors
Antonina Bakardjieva Engelbrekt Per Ekman
Department of Law Department of Government
Stockholm University Uppsala University
Stockholm, Sweden Uppsala, Sweden
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2023
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Contents
v
vi CONTENTS
Index 279
Notes on Contributors
vii
viii NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS
xi
xii LIST OF FIGURES
xv
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
The future of the European Union (EU) is again on the agenda. A strong
impetus for reconsidering the EU’s shape and composition has this time
been given by external events. Chief amongst them is Russia’s large-
scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the long-lasting effects
that this terrible deed will have on the European security architecture.
The war Russia is waging in EU’s immediate neighbourhood requires
rethinking the role of the EU in the defence and security of Europe, and
the prospects of EU membership for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, as
A. Bakardjieva Engelbrekt
Department of Law, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
e-mail: antonina.bakardjieva@juridicum.su.se
P. Ekman · A. Michalski (B)
Department of Government, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
e-mail: anna.michalski@statsvet.uu.se
part of a future Pax Europaea (Balfour, 2022; Snyder, 2022). Beyond the
immediate effects of the war itself and its security implications, the break-
down of the European security architecture will have a long-lasting impact
on a wide range of EU policy and various political initiatives. The dialectic
process of deepening and widening is again set to drive the debate on the
future of the EU, and how a viable form of political integration will be
found between flexible integration and federalism.
In the early 2020s, the EU member states are undergoing a series of
crises caused or exacerbated by Russia’s unprovoked military aggression
towards Ukraine. In the first half of 2022, the EU enacted a number of
sanctions packages as a response to the attack. It became clear that the
increasingly tense stand-off between the EU and Russia would trigger
an unexpectedly rapid revision of the EU member states’ energy poli-
cies. The EU institutions and member states were galvanized into action
in the wake of Russia’s decision to discontinue indefinitely the export
of gas through Nord Stream 1 and 2 as a way to punish them for the
support given to Ukraine. The withdrawal from Russian oil and gas is
having a nefarious impact on the economies of the EU. A cost-of-living
crisis has hit European consumers due to the rise in energy prices, fuelling
an already high rate of inflation and afflicting further economic and social
pain on the populations of all member states. The negative fallout of the
dependence on Russian supply of oil and gas shows that in the short to
medium term the EU’s green conversion is becoming even more crucial
in order to ensure strategic and societal resilience as well as to mitigate
the effects of climate change.
Despite fears to the contrary, the massive influx of Ukrainian refugees
into the EU in the beginning of the war did not develop into a crisis on
par with the refugee crisis of 2015–2016 in the wake of the war in Syria;
P. Ekman
e-mail: per.ekman@statsvet.uu.se
L. Oxelheim
Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm, Sweden
e-mail: lars.oxelheim@ifn.se
University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
Lund University, Lund, Sweden
1 THE ROAD AHEAD FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION: BETWEEN … 3
early 2020s, however, the issue was carefully put back on the EU’s polit-
ical agenda. In an effort to seek out public support for further reforms,
the Conference on the Future of Europe met in 2021–2022 as a forum
for EU citizens to lay out and debate possible alternatives for the road
ahead. The Conference’s final document called for ambitious reforms in a
wide range of areas, some of which, such as a move to qualified majority
voting in EU’s foreign and security policy regarding sanctions, would
require treaty change, while in the case of others, the existing treaty’s
passerelle clause would be sufficient to permit a deepening of the EU’s
competences (Conference on the Future of Europe, 2022). In 2023, it is
still too early to say whether sufficient political momentum is building in
favour of treaty reform in the coming years, but it is clear that the Euro-
pean Parliament and, to a lesser extent, the European Commission will
be pressing the European Council to convene a convention to consider
this very question (European Commission, 2022; European Parliament,
2022).
Public debates on the future of the EU are nothing new as it has
been strongly felt since the difficult ratification of the Maastricht Treaty
in 1992–1993 that the European project needed to be better anchored
with European citizens. The ambiguity concerning the ultimate aim of
European integration has been constant since the inception of the Union.
Opinions have been divided on whether the EU should be considered
a case of regional integration, unique in nature but without a definite
end point, or whether instead it is a politico-federal construction bearing
comparison with previous state formations in history. According to the
first perspective, the Union’s development has been marked by flex-
ible solutions to meet needs which have arisen in its member states or
impinged due to shifts in world politics. According to the second view,
deeper integration forms part of a constituting process in which national
sovereignty gradually dissolves into the Union, up to the point where
a new federal state has emerged. The constant tension found within the
EU’s policies and institutional structure can be interpreted on the basis of
either perspective, depending on the standpoint of the observer, resulting
in quite intransigent positions. A more productive way perhaps than the
binary view of intergovernmental cooperation versus supranational inte-
gration is to approach the question by considering the actual changes in
EU policies and institutions that have taken place over the last decade
in response to the many deep crises that have beset the EU. The EU’s
ability to deal with these crises and challenges to its cohesion is of crucial
6 A. BAKARDJIEVA ENGELBREKT ET AL.
Does the establishment of the ESM then point towards increased inter-
governmentalism, or sooner towards a federal development of the EU?
The question remains open. Still, in the beginning of 2023, the overall
trend would seem to be towards federalism, in view of such factors as
dealing with the fallout of the severe energy crisis, the gradual strength-
ening of the banking union, the plans to institute common EU taxes,
such as a carbon tax, and the creation of the Next Generation EU fund
which raises loans on the international financial markets in the name of
the EU.
and civil rights have been increasing. Accordingly, the EU now contains
states characterized by electoral authoritarianism; and several leaders of
an illiberal, populist, and nationalist bent are now prominent within it.
Silander further argues that the trend towards autocratization means that
the fundamental norms and values of the Union are no longer fully
respected, and that the actions of the countries where said trend is most
evident—Hungary and Poland—pose an existential threat to the Union
as a promoter of peace and freedom within its bounds. Furthermore,
the author contends, these countries constitute a threat to the EU as
a normative power internationally, particularly in relation to other coun-
tries seeking to join. Silander contends, then, that the EU is facing an
existential threat in the early 2020s. This threat must be addressed imme-
diately, if democracy’s future in Europe is to be secured. It is true that
the Union’s institutions and its member states have taken action, on the
basis of Article 7, to sanction disobedient members, although for different
reasons no state has as yet seen its rights as member of the EU suspended.
In the view of the author, however, the negative trend of recent years
points to a growing urgency to proceed in restricting EU membership
to states which do not fully respect and promote the fundamental norms
and values of the Union.
In the next chapter, Anna Södersten analyses the ‘rule of law crisis’
which now confronts the EU. From the perspective of the author, this
crisis can be described as the most serious of the Union’s crises. What
distinguishes this crisis in comparison with others is that it bears on the
very core of European integration as it concerns the Union’s values, and
what the EU is to become. It touches on the Union’s identity and the
very foundations of European integration. It is thus virtually an exis-
tential issue. Furthermore, Södersten points out, the rule of law crisis
cannot be said—unlike many other crises which the EU confronts—to
have originated outside Europe’s borders; rather, it comes from within.
Furthermore, it differs from other crises in that it is not even regarded as a
problem by all of the member states. Therefore, the author sees no simple
solution for this quandary, even though the Union now has a battery of
tools to which it can resort against member states that fail to respect the
rule of law. One consequence of the rule of law crisis, Södersten argues, is
that EU now finds itself in a limbo between federalism and flexible inte-
gration. For several reasons, deeper integration cannot be limited through
so-called flexible integration because of member states that do not respect
the rule of law. Apart from the practical difficulties associated with such a
1 THE ROAD AHEAD FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION: BETWEEN … 15
inequality can fall within countries at the same time that it increases
between them, and vice versa. The level of income inequality that obtains
for the population of the Union as a whole reflects the combination of
these changes. The author reviews developments since the early 2000s
in this regard. His short answer is that income disparities have decreased
between countries, while converging within them (i.e. they have increased
where they had previously been smaller, and decreased where they had
previously been larger). For the EU as a whole, income differences have
narrowed. This trend is wholly driven, however, by developments in the
countries that joined the Union in 2004. If the same analysis is done
for the countries that were members before 2004, the results are the
opposite. Finally, Roine compares the EU and the USA. Where feder-
alism versus flexible integration is concerned, this comparison illustrates
the importance of analysing developments at different levels. It turns out
that, already in its current form, the EU has a more even distribution of
income than the federal USA does. The comparison shows as well that
the EU’s member states are not too unequal in terms of income to take
further steps in a federal direction.
In the concluding chapter of this volume, Antonina Bakardjieva Engel-
brekt, Per Ekman, Anna Michalski, and Lars Oxelheim take stock of the
state of integration seventy years after the founding of the European
Coal and Steel Community. The authors argue that political leadership
is needed in order to stake out the way ahead. The concluding chapter
seeks to bring together different trends of integration and juxtapose them
to sources of disintegration to gauge where the EU stands in view of the
mounting challenges both from internal and external challenges.
References
Balfour, R. (2022). What Russia’s War in Ukraine Means for Europe. Carnegie
Europe.
Bergström, C. F. (2022). EU Resilience in the Internal Market after Financial
Crisis: Political Resolve and Legal Responsiveness. In A. Bakardjieva Engel-
brekt, P. Ekman, A. Michalski, & L. Oxelheim (Eds.), Routes to a Resilient
European Union. Palgrave Macmillan.
Bickerton, C. J., Hodson, D., & Puetter, U. (Eds.). (2015). The New Inter-
governmentalism: States and Supranational Actors in the Post-Maastricht Era.
Oxford University Press.
22 A. BAKARDJIEVA ENGELBREKT ET AL.
Daniel Silander
D. Silander (B)
Department of Political Science, Linnaeus University, Växjö, Sweden
e-mail: daniel.silander@lnu.se
Russett & Oneal, 2001). The idea that liberal democracies can coop-
erate peacefully dates back to the late eighteenth century as developed
in Immanuel Kant’s concept of democratic peace (1991). It was not until
the 1960s, however, that rigorous studies were first conducted on this
issue (Russett, 1993). The basic idea of the democratic peace is that
peace is promoted if countries have free and fair elections, with power
resting in the hands of the people. So, if more countries adopt demo-
cratic rules of the game, peace will prevail more broadly as well. Bruce
Russett (1993) contends that the democratic requirement of popular
support makes it difficult for leaders to wage war, due to the checks and
balances embodied in democratic institutions. Furthermore, the political
culture of democracies rests on debate, negotiation, and peaceful political
competition—features that facilitate compromise with other democratic
countries. The transparency of a democratic system, moreover, minimizes
the risk of surprise and misunderstanding vis-à-vis other countries; while
its openness encourages cooperation and integration. Trade, investment,
culture, and communication generate interdependency and further bonds
of friendship between democracies. Human beings, in this perspective, are
basically rational and good. When representing their citizens, therefore,
political leaders in democracies will tend to safeguard peace, to defend
freedom, and to promote the common good (Kant, 1991; Russett, 1993).
Needless to say, the idea of the democratic peace has come in for
criticism (see Dafoe et al., 2013). First and foremost, how are democ-
racy and war to be defined? Furthermore, some critics have also claimed
that democracies can act aggressively towards non-democracies. Notwith-
standing these criticisms, however, research on the idea of the democratic
peace has been of great importance for our understanding of European
integration and the development of the eu. Political and economic coop-
eration between elected European governments, deepening over time, has
resulted in the establishment of common rules, laws, and institutions.
In 2012, the achievements of the Union’s democratic peace drew the
attention of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which awarded the Peace
Prize to the EU (2012). The Committee acknowledged how the Union
historically had promoted European peace and reconciliation as well as
democracy and human rights and how an increasing number of countries
had become bound together in friendship (2012).
Research on international socialization and democratization, further-
more, has called attention to how European integration has worked to
promote norms in other countries. The regional context can have an
2 DEMOCRACY IN EUROPE: ENLARGED … 29
War. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe had been kidnapped
by authoritarian forces, but freedom and independence were now theirs
for the taking. The Union offered membership on the basis of national
reforms and adoption of its norms and values. The so-called Copenhagen
criteria from 1993, adopted at a meeting of the European Council in the
same city, served as a guide for countries seeking full eu membership. The
political criterion demanded that new member states must have a stable
democratic system, rule of law, respect human rights, and protect minori-
ties. The economic criterion comprised a functioning market economy
and the capacity to withstand competitive pressure and market forces on
the EU’s internal market. The legal criterion, finally, stipulated that they
must be able meet the obligations of membership by adhering to the goals
of the political, economic, and monetary union (EUR-Lex, Accession
Criteria; Janse, 2019).
It was the task of the European Commission to oversee the member-
ship negotiations and monitor the candidate states’ national progress.
The final decision on a candidate state’s membership, however, lay in
the hands of the member states. The Commission provided the Council
of Ministers and the European Parliament with strategic reports on the
progress accomplished by each candidate country, on the reforms it
had introduced, and what remained to be done. On the basis of the
Commission’s annual evaluations, the Union set out targets and provided
diplomatic and financial support to the candidate countries. The role of
the Commission in the membership negotiations was thus very important.
The task fell upon it to serve as the catalyst of the Union to promote
European interests and to represent the Union in its external relations
and internally towards member states defend the Treaties and monitor
compliance with eu legislation (Janse, 2019).