Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Editors-in-Chief
Laura L. Carstensen
and
Thomas A. Rando
Associate Editors
The near-doubling of life expectancy in the Attention to the science of aging involves a
20th century represents extraordinary oppor- concomitant increase in the number of college
tunities for societies and individuals. Just as and university courses and programs focused
sure, it presents extraordinary challenges. In on aging and longevity. With this expansion
the years since the last edition of the Handbook of knowledge, the Handbooks play an increas-
of Aging series was published, the United States ingly important role for students, teachers
joined the growing list of “aging societies” and scientists who are regularly called upon
alongside developed nations in Western Europe to synthesize and update their comprehen-
and parts of Asia; that is, the U.S. population sion of the broader field in which they work.
has come to include more people over the age The Handbook of Aging series provides knowl-
of 60 than under 15 years of age. This unprec- edge bases for instruction in these continually
edented reshaping of age in the population will changing fields, both through reviews of core
continue on a global scale and will fundamen- and newly emerging areas, historical synthe-
tally alter all aspects of life as we know it. ses, methodological and conceptual advances.
Science is responsible for the extension of Moreover, the interdisciplinary nature of aging
life-expectancy and science is now needed more research is exemplified by the overlap in con-
than ever to ensure that added years are high cepts illuminated across the Handbooks, such
quality. Fortunately, the scientific understanding as the profound interactions between social
of aging is growing faster than ever across social worlds and biological processes. By continu-
and biological sciences. Along with the phe- ally featuring new topics and involving new
nomenal advances in the genetic determinants authors, the series has pushed innovation and
of longevity and susceptibility to age-related fostered new ideas.
diseases has come the awareness of the critical One of the greatest strengths of the chapters
importance of environmental and psychologi- in the Handbooks is the synthesis afforded by
cal factors that modulate and even supersede preeminent authors who are at the forefront of
genetic predispositions. The Handbooks of Aging research and thus provide expert perspectives
series, comprised of three separate volumes, the on the issues that current define and challenge
Handbook of the Biology of Aging, the Handbook each field. We express our deepest thanks to
of the Psychology of Aging, and the Handbook of the editors of the individual volumes for their
Aging and the Social Sciences, is now in its eighth incredible dedication and contributions to the
edition and continues to provide foundational series. It is their efforts to which the excellence
knowledge that fosters continued advances in of the products is largely credited. We thank
the understanding of aging at the individual Drs. Matt Kaeberlein and George M. Martin
and societal levels. editors of the Handbook of the Biology of Aging;
xi
xii Foreword
Drs. K. Warner Schaie and Sherry L. Willis, edi- whose profound interest and dedication has
tors of the Handbook of the Psychology of Aging; facilitated the publication of the Handbooks
and Drs. Linda K. George and Kenneth F. through their many editions. And we continue
Ferraro, editors of the Handbook of Aging and the to extend our deepest gratitude to James Birren
Social Sciences. We would also like to express for establishing and shepherding the series
our appreciation to our publishers at Elsevier, through the first six editions.
Thomas A. Rando
Laura L. Carstensen
Stanford Center on Longevity,
Stanford University
Preface
Social science scholarship on aging is expand the field in exciting ways. This edition
alive and well. Although the last edition of of the Handbook includes 23 chapters. Seventeen
the Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences of these chapters address topics that did not
appeared only 5 years ago, the growth of appear in the seventh edition; most of them
research since then on aging individuals, popu- address topics that did not appear in any pre-
lations, and as a dynamic culmination of the life vious edition of the Handbook. Of the six topics
course has been extraordinary. There are many covered in this edition that also appeared in the
reasons for this stunning growth in the quantity seventh edition, four were written by different
and quality of aging research. Infrastructure authors.
and the methodological tools necessary for rig- Because each edition of the Handbook
orous, sophisticated research have increased includes chapters that differ from the previous
and become widely available to the scientific edition, each edition is a stand-alone volume.
community. In the social sciences, the increase Thus, chapters in the seventh edition, as well
in data sources covering significant portions of as even earlier ones, remain important compila-
the life course from a broad spectrum of socie- tions of aging research.
ties, the increased coupling of social and bio- Just as the majority of chapters in this edi-
logical data, and statistical advances have been tion of the Handbook address new topics, most
especially important. New, energetic cohorts of of the chapter authors also are new to this edi-
scholars have posed fresh, innovative research tion. Specifically, of the 47 chapter authors who
questions to the field and demonstrated the contributed to this edition, 40 of them did not
importance of those questions for a deeper participate in the previous edition. Most of the
understanding of aging. And, of course, the new chapter authors are well-established schol-
complexities of population dynamics, cohort ars, but they are also relatively young. Without
succession, and policy changes modify the question, they will be among the premier schol-
world and its inhabitants in ways that must ars of aging for decades to come and it has been
be vigilantly monitored so that aging research a great pleasure to include their impressive
remains relevant and accurate. contributions to this edition of the Handbook.
This is the eighth edition of the Handbook Unlike the Handbook of the Biology of Aging
of Aging and the Social Sciences and we have and the Handbook of the Psychology of Aging,
endeavored to do justice to the research topics this Handbook is intended to cover a spec-
and questions that, in our judgment, represent trum of disciplines. As a result, the chapters
both foundational, classic, and ever-important in this volume were written by scholars that
topics critical to aging research in the social include demographers, economists, epidemi-
sciences and emerging and timely topics that ologists, gerontologists, political scientists,
xiii
xiv Preface
psychologists, social workers, sociologists, and Cohort succession signifies the entrance
statisticians. Likewise, chapters address topics of fresh, new generations, but also brings the
at the micro- and macro-levels, as well as top- exit of those who created the world that new
ics that address the intersection of individual cohorts enter. Bob Binstock was the senior
and aggregate factors. The result is a rich array editor of the seven previous editions of the
of topics and perspectives that cover much, Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences. Bob
though by no means all, of the landscape of died in 2011. Bob was, without question, the
aging research in the social sciences. guiding spirit and the meticulous work-horse
Chapter authors were asked to contribute of the Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences
scholarly reviews of their topics, devoting spe- series. And this was but one of his monu-
cial attention to what is new and exciting (theo- mental contributions to aging research and
retically, methodologically, and substantively) policy. Linda George had the privilege of co-
and to priority issues for future research. They editing the third through seventh editions of
meticulously crafted chapters that stand as the Handbook with Bob. They had a wonderful
exemplary reviews of the state-of-the-science working partnership that she will always treas-
and point the way to exciting ways to advance ure. She agreed to serve as senior editor of this
the field. We found reading these chapters and edition only if she succeeded in recruiting a co-
corresponding with the authors to be enlighten- editor in whose intelligence, research contribu-
ing and we stand in awe of the knowledge and tions, service to the field, and judgment she had
insights that the authors generously shared. total trust. Ken Ferraro was her choice and he
We also owe huge debts of gratitude to our graciously accepted the call. Her choice could
Associate Editors: Deborah Carr, Janet Wilmoth, not have been better. How fortunate she’s been
and Doug Wolf. They were involved in every to work with two remarkable men who did
part of this Handbook, including selection of top- their share of the work and more.
ics and authors, providing feedback to chapter This Handbook is intended to serve as a use-
authors, and writing superb chapters themselves. ful resource, an inspiration to those searching
As a group, they beautifully buttressed us in for ways to contribute to the aging enterprise,
areas where our knowledge was less extensive and a tribute to the rich bodies of scholar-
than theirs and provided insights and sugges- ship that comprise aging research in the social
tions that improved the volume in multiple ways. sciences.
Linda K. George is professor of Sociology early origins of adult health, health disparities,
at Duke University where she also serves and the health consequences of obesity. With
as associate director of the Duke University interests in how stratification processes unfold
Center for the Study of Aging and Human over the life course, he has developed cumula-
Development. She is a fellow and past presi- tive inequality theory for the study of human
dent of the Gerontological Society of America development, aging, and health. A fellow of
(GSA). She is former chair of the Aging and the Gerontological Society of America (GSA),
Life Course Section and the Sociology of Mental he formerly edited Journal of Gerontology: Social
Health Section of the American Sociological Sciences and chaired the Behavioral and Social
Association (ASA). She is former editor of the Sciences section of GSA. He also is a member of
Journal of Gerontology, Social Sciences. She is the honorary Sociological Research Association
currently associate editor of Social Psychology and former chair of the Section on Aging
Quarterly and former associate editor of and Life Course of the American Sociological
Demography. She is the author or editor of 8 Association (ASA). GSA has honored him with
books and author of more than 250 journal arti- the Distinguished Mentor Award, Richard
cles and book chapters. She co-edited the third, Kalish Innovation Publication Award, and the
fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh editions of the Best Paper Award for Theoretical Developments
Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences. Her in Social Gerontology. ASA honors from the
major research interests include social fac- Section on Aging and the Life Course include
tors and illness, stress and social support, and Outstanding Publication Award and Matilda
mental health and well-being across the life White Riley Distinguished Scholar Award.
course. Among the honors she has received Deborah Carr is professor of Sociology at
are Phi Beta Kappa, the Duke University Rutgers University where she also is a faculty
Distinguished Teaching Award, the Mentorship member at the Institute for Health, Health Care
Award from the Behavioral and Social Sciences Policy & Aging Research, and holds a second-
Section of GSA, the Dean’s Mentoring Award ary appointment at the School of Social Work.
from the Graduate School of Duke University, She is a fellow of the Gerontological Society
the Kleemeier Award from the GSA, and the of America (GSA) and a member of the hon-
Matilda White Riley Award from the ASA. orary Sociological Research Association. She
Kenneth F. Ferraro is distinguished profes- is the 2014–15 chair of the Aging and Life
sor of Sociology and founding director of the Course Section of the American Sociological
Center on Aging and the Life Course at Purdue Association (ASA). She is editor of the Journal of
University. He is the author of over 100 peer- Gerontology: Social Sciences for the 2015–18 term
reviewed articles and 2 books and has edited 4 and formerly served as deputy editor of Journal
editions of Gerontology: Perspectives and Issues. of Marriage and Family, and Social Psychology
His recent research focuses on health inequality Quarterly. She is the author or editor of five
over the life course. Current projects examine the books including the Encyclopedia of the Life
xv
xvi About the Editors
Course and Human Development (Cengage, 2009). shapes various life course outcomes related to
She has authored 70 journal articles and more marriage and family, economic well-being, health
than 2 dozen book and encyclopedia chap- conditions, and disability. She has received sev-
ters. She is an investigator on several major eral teaching awards, including the School of
studies of aging and the life course including Liberal Arts Excellence in Education Award at
the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) and Purdue University and the Chancellor’s Award
Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS), and is for Public Engagement and Scholarship-Faculty
chair of the Board of Overseers of the General and Staff Inspiration at Syracuse University.
Social Survey (GSS). Her major research inter- Douglas Wolf is the Gerald B. Cramer
ests include stress, health and well-being over Professor of Aging Studies and a professor
the life course. Her specific research projects of Public Administration and International
focus on death, dying and bereavement; fami- Affairs at the Maxwell School of Citizenship
lies and health; and the psychosocial conse- and Public Affairs at Syracuse University.
quences of body weight over the life course. Previously he was a senior research associate
Janet M. Wilmoth received a Ph.D. in and director of the Population Studies Center
Sociology and Demography, with a minor at the Urban Institute, and was a research sci-
in Gerontology, from the Pennsylvania State entist at the International Institute of Applied
University. She is professor of Sociology at Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. His
Syracuse University where she also serves as research focusses mainly on family and house-
the director of the Aging Studies Institute, sen- hold demography, late-life disability, and
ior research affiliate in the Center for Policy informal care and its consequences for care
Research, and senior fellow in the Institute for providers and care receivers. His research has
Veterans and Military Families. She is a fellow been published in demography, gerontology,
of the Gerontological Society of America (GSA), public policy, economics, health, and evalua-
current secretary/treasurer of GSA’s Behavioral tion journals. He has served on the editorial
and Social Science Section, and past secretary/ boards of Demography, Journal of Gerontology:
treasurer of the Section on Aging and the Life Social Sciences, Journal of Marriage and the Family,
Course of the American Sociological Association Journal of Population Aging, Population Research
(ASA). She has authored of over 50 articles and Policy Review, and Demographic Research,
and book chapters, and co-edited Gerontology: and as director of the Center for Aging and
Perspectives and Issues (third and fourth editions) Policy Studies at Syracuse University. At pre-
and Life Course Perspectives on Military Service. sent he is a co-investigator for the National
Her research examines older adult migration and Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a
living arrangements, health status, and finan- longitudinal study that collects data on a sam-
cial security, and explores how military service ple of Medicare beneficiaries ages 65 and older.
List of Contributors
xvii
xviii List of Contributors
1
Aging and the Social Sciences:
Progress and Prospects
Linda K. George1 and Kenneth F. Ferraro2
1
Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
2
Center on Aging and the Life Course, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
O U T L I N E
“The only constant is change.” This quote, that he was not the same person today that he
heard frequently today, is attributed to was yesterday or would be tomorrow? At any
Heraclitis of Ephesus, a Greek philosopher who rate, it is clear that humans have long been
lived from approximately 535 BC to 475 BC. aware that change is ubiquitous.
One wonders what it was about life at about Scholars of aging arguably devote more
500 years before the birth of Christ that led of their intellectual activity to studying and
Heraclitis to that conclusion. Was the pace of understanding change than those in any other
social change so rapid that it led to this infer- field. Aging itself is change – some of it eas-
ence? Was it the rhythms of nature that trig- ily observable; some of it occurring at the cel-
gered this observation? Or, perhaps, was it the lular and molecular levels and requiring years
flow of everyday life that convinced Heraclitis or even decades to be measurable and the
fodder for scientific inquiry. Aging individu- theme being “big picture” influences on aging.
als are embedded in macro-, meso-, and micro- Undoubtedly, other scholars would have
environments in which change also is omni- selected other developments in the field. Other
present. And a fundamental assumption of the scholars may disagree with our labeling these
social sciences is that those constantly changing research topics as “recent” or “new.” This is
environments affect the ways in which people inevitable. Nonetheless, we hope that this
age. Thinking seriously about the complex- chapter captures much of the theoretical, meth-
ity of change leads to the conclusion that con- odological, and substantive “action” of the past
siderable audacity and fortitude are required two decades in social science research on aging.
to study aging and lay claim to understand-
ing or explaining its dynamics. And yet that is
precisely what aging researchers do. THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL
Audacity and fortitude also are required DEVELOPMENTS
in any attempt to summarize the state-of-the-
science with regard to social science aging Arguably, the biggest “story” in aging
research. Yet, the goal of this chapter is to pro- research for the past several decades has been
vide a partial summary of the state-of-the-field. developments in, advances in, and the greatly
More specifically, the purpose of this chapter increased volume of research that incorporates
is to review, in broad brush, recent theoreti- the life course perspective. The life course per-
cal, methodological, and selected substantive spective is not a theory per se; rather, it is a set
developments in aging research in the social of five principles that contextualize individual
sciences. We used the approximate dates of lives in a number of ways (Elder, Johnson, &
1996–2015 as the focus of this review. This is an Crosnoe, 2003). The principle of life span devel-
arbitrary window of time, but we believe that it opment states that human development and
is a reasonable temporal scope for summarizing aging are lifelong processes – that patterns
current significant issues in aging research. observable over time link distal and proximal
The chapter is organized into four sections. events and experiences across the life course.
The first section reviews theoretical and con- The principle of agency focuses on the ways that
ceptual developments in the field; the second individuals construct their own lives by the
provides an update of advances in data, meth- choices they make within the opportunities and
ods, and statistical techniques that have become constraints of their environments. The prin-
central in aging research. The third and long- ciple of time and place states that human lives
est section reviews three thematic topics that develop in historical and geographic contexts
have emerged as cutting-edge issues in social that strongly affect the opportunities and con-
research on aging and the life course. In the straints available. The principle of timing states
concluding section, we briefly comment upon that the effects of events and other experiences
the broader issue of how aging research con- vary, depending on the individuals’ ages or
tributes to major issues and assumptions in the life stages. Finally, the principle of linked lives
social sciences. focuses on the social networks and relation-
Considerable subjectivity was employed ships that also structure the opportunities and
in developing this chapter, especially in iden- constraints available to individuals. Although
tifying emerging substantive issues. It is pos- temporality, especially biographical and histori-
sible to produce a veritable “laundry list” of cal time, is widely viewed as the hallmark of
recent and emerging themes in aging research. the life course perspective, context is its major
We selected only three, with the unifying foundation.
the trajectories may resemble straightforward in later life (i.e., typically underestimating
cumulative advantage and disadvantage, but inequality).
there will be other meaningful trajectories as Several longitudinal studies testing elements
well. Despite its shortcomings as a universally of the theory reveal the importance of inter-
applicable theory, CA/DT has been tremen- generational influences on health outcomes –
dously useful in emphasizing the importance ranging from adult depression (Goosby, 2013)
of early social status and cohort membership on to myocardial infarction (Morton, Mustillo, &
life course trajectories and has generated a large Ferraro, 2014) – but also how those health risks
volume of important research. may be amplified or diminished by resources
and lifestyle choices. Indeed, in a study of racial
disparities in health, Kail and Taylor (2014,
Cumulative Inequality Theory p. 805) reported that “mobilizing financial
To capture more of the contingencies resources into insurance coverage is protective”
involved in how status and life experience against functional limitations. Other studies
influence the aging process, cumulative ine- testing elements of the theory reveal that both
quality theory (CIT) integrates elements from psychosocial resources and how one interprets
multiple conceptual approaches, most nota- life experiences are consequential to status
bly but not limited to: life course perspective attainment and health (Wickrama & O’Neal,
(Elder, 1998), CA/DT, and stress process theory 2013; Wilkinson, Shippee, & Ferraro, 2012).
(Pearlin, Schieman, Fazio, & Meersman, 2005). The emerging picture from empirical tests of
Formulated in five axioms and 19 proposi- the theory is that there are powerful systemic
tions, the theory builds upon but is distinctive influences on exposure to risk, opportunity,
from prior approaches in several ways (Ferraro, and inequality but that these influences on
Shippee, & Schafer, 2009). well-being in later life are often contingent on
First, CIT prioritizes perceptions of the aging how the exposures are interpreted and whether
experience while juxtaposing the systemic resources can be activated to address them.
generation of inequality with human agency
(Schafer, Ferraro, & Mustillo, 2011). Social struc-
tures constrain choices, and both influence METHODS AND DATA
aging. Second, rather than assume inexorable
effects of early disadvantage, CIT specifies that
Data Developments
exposures to risks and resources also shape
life trajectories. Indeed, the timely activation One of the greatest boons to aging research
of resources may nullify or compensate for the has been the proliferation of longitudinal
effects of negative exposures. Third, the influ- data sets covering long periods of time. The
ence of family lineage is emphasized in the increased availability of high-quality data sets
theory, noting the roles that genes and environ- in the past two decades or so has transformed
ment have on status differentiation. It calls for aging research. Space limitations preclude a
more attention to the intergenerational trans- description of all the valuable longitudinal data
mission of risks and resources. Finally, the the- sets available. Several major differences in data
ory integrates selection processes into the study sources, however, will be reviewed. With few
of inequality. Given that inequality itself is an exceptions, we focus on data sets with three
engine of mortality and other forms of nonran- or more times of measurement, which is the
dom selection, failure to consider selection pro- minimum number of data points for modeling
cesses may lead to misrepresenting inequality trajectories.
been merging survey data from older adults Non-US Databases. An important and rela-
with federal and, occasionally, state adminis- tively new resource for research on aging is the
trative data. Merging data from these sources availability of large-scale longitudinal studies
greatly expand the research questions that can conducted in countries other than the United
be addressed. The most frequently used admin- States. Especially rich data are available from
istrative data base is the National Death Index Europe and the Pacific Rim. European exam-
(NDI), which includes data from death certifi- ples include the English Longitudinal Study
cates in all 50 US states. Investigators routinely of Ageing (ELSA) and the Survey of Health,
use the NDI to determine study participants’ Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).
mortality status and date of death and can use The ELSA began in 2002, conducts interviews
the NDI Plus for cause-of-death data. Although biannually, and has completed six waves of
not every name submitted to the NDI can be data, with a seventh in progress (ELSA, 2014).
definitively matched, the overall accuracy of SHARE also interviews participants biannu-
the NDI is excellent (e.g., Lash & Silliman, ally; it began in 2004 and five waves are com-
2001). The other major administrative data set plete. SHARE’s baseline sample included older
often merged with longitudinal survey data is adults from 11 countries. By Wave 5, 15 coun-
Medicare claims data, which include detailed tries had participated (SHARE, 2014). Both the
information about the use and costs of inpatient ELSA and SHARE are modeled on the HRS
and outpatient health care (CDC, 2014a). Most in design and content. Two studies from the
major longitudinal studies use the NDI and Pacific Rim are especially rich in times of meas-
many (e.g., the HRS and EPESE) also obtain urement. The Australian Longitudinal Study
Medicare claims data. of Aging (ALSA) began in 1992 and completed
Biomarker, Genetic, and Physical Performance 12 times of measurement (Luszcz et al., 2014).
Data. Another important trend in longitudinal The Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity
studies of aging is the collection of biological Study (CLHLS) has conducted six waves to
and physical performance data. Advances in date (1998, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2008–2009, and
data collection methods now allow biological 2014) and focuses on the oldest-old (Chinese
data to be easily obtained via non- or minimally Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, 2014).
invasive methods, including buccal swabs for All four of these data sets include biomarker
DNA and urine and saliva samples for selected and physical performance tests at one or more
biomarkers. Highly trained interviewers often times of measurement.
collect blood samples; measure height, weight,
waist circumference, and blood pressure; and/
Statistical Sophistication
or administer physical performance tests. To
date, the genetic and biomarker data typically The statistical armamentarium for analysis
have been collected at a single point in time. An of three or more waves of longitudinal data
exception is the National Social Life, Health, and has grown in volume and sophistication over
Aging Project (NSHAP; NORC, 2014). To date, the past two decades. The concept of trajec-
NSHAP has collected two waves of data and tory – a distinct temporal pattern observed over
biomeasures were collected at both test dates, multiple times of measurement – has become a
permitting longitudinal analyses spanning about staple of aging research. Some studies include
5 years. This trend will undoubtedly continue multiple times of measurement over a rela-
in other longitudinal studies, resulting in multi- tively short period of time, permitting estima-
ple waves of biological and genetic data that are tion of fine-grained trajectories (e.g., patterns
linked to rich survey and administrative data. of onset, stability, and recovery of disability).
widespread migration from rural to urban relationship between women’s labor market par-
areas. Fourth, Ryder believed that technologi- ticipation and health (Pavalko, Gong, & Long,
cal innovation was a primary trigger for cohort 2007). Cohort analysis is valuable for outcomes
differentiation – and argued that technological other than health as well, such as the discrep-
advances were most targeted at and welcomed ancy between chronological and “felt” age (Choi,
by adolescents and young adults. DiNitto, & Kim, 2014) and patterns of gradual
To support the claim that cohort analysis has retirement (Giandrea, Cahill, & Quinn, 2009).
become increasingly popular in aging research, Although there are significant exceptions,
we conducted an informal analysis of journal few studies either empirically test or even
articles published between 1970 and the first speculate about the specific social changes that
half of 2014. We used the Web of Science core trigger cohort differences. As a result, cohort
collection and narrowed the search to journal analysis often appears simply descriptive. But
articles categorized as falling under at least the best cohort studies are those that not only
one of three topics: gerontology, geriatrics, and describe cohort differences, but also attempt
sociology (aging was not a topic offered). Using to explain the reasons for them. Frisvold and
these criteria, Web of Science identified 7 635 Golberstein’s (2013) study of how segregated
articles in which the word “cohort” appeared schools and their subsequent demise are asso-
in the title or abstract. Examining the distri- ciated with cohort differences in race dispari-
bution of these articles by date of publication ties in health is an example of a study that
is illuminating. Less than half a percent of the aims to explain cohort differences and not sim-
titles appeared between 1970 and 1979 and ply describe them. The increased attention to
slightly more than 1% were published between cohort differences is an important contribution
1980 and 1989. About 16.5% were published in to aging and life course research. The contribu-
the 1990s and approximately 39.5% were pub- tions of cohort analysis could be even greater
lished between 2000 and 2009. In the interval if this research routinely addressed potential
between 2010 and June 30, 2014, 41.8% of the explanations for cohort differences.
articles were published. Even we were sur-
prised to find that the largest percentage of The Effects of Social and Economic
articles appeared in the most recent four and a
Disruptions on Aging
half years. There are obvious limitations to this
analysis (e.g., we cannot know whether inves- Social and economic disruptions have long
tigators simply began to use the term “cohort” been of interest in the social sciences. Major
more frequently in article titles and abstracts). shocks to social structure provide a rare oppor-
Nonetheless, if the trend observed in this tunity to not only study the consequences of
highly unsophisticated analysis is generally and responses to significant disruptions, but
accurate, explicit attention to cohorts is increas- also to highlight social arrangements before
ingly common in research on aging. the disruptions that were not fully understood.
Most studies of cohort differences in later life Large-scale events typically receive substan-
examine health outcomes. Examples include tial attention by both scientists and the general
cohort differences in the relationship between public. Much less attention has been paid to the
education and health (Lynch, 2006), in depres- differential implications of these disruptions for
sion during late life (Yang, 2007), in the extent population subgroups, including older adults.
to which segregated southern schools partially Recently, however, the implications of large-
account for Black–White health disparities in scale social and economic changes for older
late life (Frisvold & Golberstein, 2013), and in the adults have received increased attention.
on mental health, the coping strategies used by aging research. A gradual societal change that
older victims, and the ways that family support has received significant recent attention is the
did or did not ease the trauma of older victims health effects of income inequality.
(e.g., Cherry et al., 2010; Henderson, Roberto, &
Kamo, 2010; Kamo, Henderson, & Roberto, Income Inequality and Health
2011; and for a review of research on the effects Income inequality refers to the size of the
of disasters on older adults, see Chapter 18). gap between the richest and poorest members
The examples above illustrate the increased of society – the wider the gap, the greater the
attention paid to events that threaten preexist- inequality. Although there are gaps between the
ing structural arrangements and their conse- bottom and top of the income ladder in all soci-
quences for older adults. We applaud this trend eties, the size of the gap varies widely across
and encourage broader attention to major social countries and over time. The United States has
disruptions – for the United States as a whole, higher income inequality than any other devel-
such as the Great Recession, and for specific oped country in the world and the gap between
regions or cities, such as Hurricane Katrina. the richest and the poorest has widened sub-
stantially over a relatively short period of time
in the United States, with no apparent end in
Gradual, Incremental Cultural Change sight (The Economist, 2013). The implications
Not all consequential social changes take of income inequality for economic growth,
the form of sudden social disruptions; gradual social cohesion, and health are now “hot
and/or incremental cultural changes also can topics” in the social sciences, politics, and pub-
have important implications for older adults. lic discourse.
In fact, social scientists are probably more Conceptual and Methodological Issues. The out-
likely to miss or understudy the effects of more comes of income inequality for which there has
gradual social change than sudden disruptions. been substantial research include rates of labor
The history of aging research reveals numer- force participation, workers’ earnings, eco-
ous gradual changes, the significance of which nomic growth, general trust, civic engagement,
was not recognized until a critical mass of older life expectancy, and other health indicators. For
adults was affected. Family care for impaired decades, most economists argued that the net
older adults has occurred at least since the effects of economic inequality (both income and
beginning of recorded history. Nonetheless, it wealth inequality) are beneficial. Mainstream
was not until the vast majority of adults lived economic theory posited that income inequal-
until late life and gradual social changes (e.g., ity motivates workers to increase their job skills
women’s labor force participation, intergen- and productivity in order to climb the economic
erational geographic mobility) made family ladder. In turn, more productive workers not
caregiving difficult for a significant proportion only increase their own incomes, but also spur
of older spouses and adult children that the economic growth for the society as a whole. In
concept of caregiver burden became a topic of contrast, Marxian theorists and other social sci-
scientific interest. Indeed, the term “caregiver” entists argued that because income inequality
did not appear in public discourse until the concentrates capital in their control, the very
1980s. Similarly, the transition from defined rich are motivated to cut labor costs as much
benefit to defined contribution pension plans as possible. As a result, increasing income ine-
was underway for a decade or so before the quality depresses workers’ wages and increases
implications of this transition for the financial unemployment. Quite recently, economists
security of retired adults became an issue in have found, using data from the United States,
based on theoretical grounds. If the outcome about the effects of income inequality will be
of interest is an indicator of population health, missed. Again, theory should provide guidance
aggregate-only models are appropriate. about the most appropriate unit of analysis, but
A third decision that investigators face is the there is little evidence of that in extant research.
choice of a unit of analysis. Most early studies Fourth and finally is the question of whether
compared the relationships between income geographic units are the optimal basis for study-
inequality and potential outcomes using the ing the effects of income inequality on health
nation state as the unit of analysis. An increas- and other outcomes. Although the vast majority
ing number of studies, however, use units of of income equality research is based on compar-
analysis that are smaller than countries, includ- isons across geographic units, other strategies
ing states or provinces, metropolitan areas, and are available. Zheng and George (2012) argue
neighborhoods. The choice of a unit of analy- that the best way to study income inequality is
sis is undoubtedly determined in part by data to relate time-based trajectories of inequality to
availability (e.g., if county-level data are not health. Time-based analyses permit investiga-
available for important variables, another unit tors to determine whether patterns of increas-
of analysis for which data are available must be ing (or decreasing, although to our knowledge,
used). There are countervailing advantages and decreasing levels of income inequality have
disadvantages to country versus smaller units never been observed) income inequality are
of analysis. associated with worse health. Using time-based
The disadvantage of country-level variables trajectories, the temporal order between changes
is that they include a great deal of unmeasured in income inequality and changes in health and
heterogeneity both within and across coun- the lag times between changes in income ine-
tries. Economic conditions and public policies quality and changes in health can be observed.
often differ substantially across geographic Lag time is important, but theory to date has
units within a country, and ignoring that vari- not addressed this issue. Cross-sectional studies,
ability may mask relationships that would while plentiful, are of dubious value. It is highly
be observed with smaller units of analysis. unlikely that increases in income inequality trig-
Unmeasured heterogeneity is undoubtedly ger immediate changes in health. Because the
even greater across countries, with cultural lag times between changes in income inequality
preferences and unique aspects of national his- and changes in health are unknown, trajectory
tory ignored. The advantages of country-level analyses could shed light on that dynamic.
analyses are that results presumably apply to Income Inequality, Aging, and Health. The
the population as a whole and many structural vast majority of research in this field focuses
characteristics are, by definition, nationally on the relationship between income inequal-
homogeneous (e.g., GDP, political structure). ity and mortality. Other studies examine self-
The advantage of using smaller units of analy- rated health, physical functioning/disability,
sis in the same country is that some important and mental health. Because older adults have
structural characteristics are national and, thus, higher rates of death and disability, and are
constants that need not be included in predic- more likely than their younger counterparts to
tive models, thus permitting fine-grained anal- rate their health as fair or poor, studies based
yses of other structural characteristics. This also on age-heterogeneous samples are clearly rel-
is the primary disadvantage of small units of evant to the older population. Mental disorders
analysis – if the effects of income inequality dif- are less common in later life than in middle
fer primarily across countries but are homoge- or young adulthood, however, and are not
neous within countries, important information reviewed here. Space limitations preclude an
income inequality and multiple health out- may be worth examining include the increas-
comes (Wilkinson & Pickett, 2006). The authors ing age at first marriage in the United States,
conclude that 70% of the studies totally or par- which has implications for the aging of those
tially support the hypothesis that high income cohorts and their parents (US Census Bureau,
inequality is associated with poorer health. They 2012), the steadily increasing proportion of the
also found that studies based on larger geo- population, including the older population,
graphic units of analysis were more likely to living in near poverty (Heggeness & Hokayem,
support the hypothesis that income inequality 2013), and the increasing income residential
is positively related to worse health than those segregation in the United States (Fry & Taylor,
based on small areas. They suggest that studies 2012). The effects of these cumulative small
that sample small areas are “too small to reflect social changes are easily overlooked. And yet
the scale of social class differences in a society” a core premise of social science research is that
(p. 1768). The second review reports the results the larger environment substantially deter-
of a meta-analysis based on 28 studies that mines the opportunities and constraints within
cumulatively included more than 61 million which societal members live their lives. We sug-
respondents (Kondo et al., 2009). The health out- gest that these kinds of structural changes merit
comes examined were mortality and self-rated closer scrutiny from social scientists.
health. The results suggested that income
inequality is significantly related to both mor-
tality and self-rated fair/poor health in the
expected direction, although the size of the coef- WHAT AGING RESEARCH
ficient is modest. Kondo et al. also observed CONTRIBUTES TO THE SOCIAL
significant relationships between specific study SCIENCES: THE BIG PICTURE
characteristics and the odds of a negative
association of income inequality with health. Opportunities for innovative and rigorous
Specifically, results were stronger and larger in aging research have never been better. A prolif-
studies characterized by higher levels of income eration of data sets in which large numbers of
inequality, longer duration of follow-up, that individuals are followed over long periods of
used data from 1990 and later, and explicitly time became available in the past two decades.
modeled time lags. In line with the conclusions The ability to merge survey data and other data
of both reviews, other studies have empirically sources (including, but not limited to Medicare
examined the effects of size of the geographic files, Census data, and the NDI) also has broad-
unit of analysis, time lags, and income inequality ened the range of research questions that can be
thresholds (Blakely, Kennedy, Glass, & Kawachi, addressed. High-quality data sources are avail-
2000; Kondo, van Dam, Sembajwe, Kawachi, & able for a growing number of countries other
Yamagata, 2012), demonstrating that these study than the United States. Statistical techniques
characteristics strongly affect the size and signifi- designed for multiple times of measurement
cance of relationships between income inequal- and multiple levels of analysis are now read-
ity and health outcomes. ily available in standard statistical packages.
Income inequality is only one example of a Obviously, advances in these and other com-
wide range of patterns of gradual social change ponents of the infrastructure on which aging
that may affect population health as a whole research rests will continue in the future. But
and the health of older adults in particular. plenty of exciting research questions can be
Examples of other gradual social trends that addressed with the resources available now.
much more than financial capital is involved a response to and critique of disengagement
in this process, his research focused on cultural theory, is essentially a theory of social repro-
capital, especially the arts, in reproducing social duction (Atchley, 1999). It posits that as older
stratification (Bourdieu, 1984). adults experience age-related transitions such
Literally hundreds of studies using the as retirement and widowhood, they sustain as
social reproduction framework have been pub- many roles and activities that they valued prior
lished in the last several decades. As might be to the transitions as possible – in essence, they
expected, a disproportionate number of them reproduce the same parameters of their lives
focus on education and the failure of schools that they had previously. Socio-emotional selec-
to generate as much upward mobility for dis- tivity theory (SST) is similar, in some ways, to
advantaged students as would be desirable continuity theory. According to SST, as aging
(Aschaffenburg & Maas, 1997; Collins, 2009). adults experience declines in their capacities,
The scope of social reproduction studies, how- they express the highest levels of life satisfac-
ever, is quite large and ranges from research tion if they release less important roles, rela-
on the effects of economic growth in develop- tionships, and activities and invest mainly
ing countries (Boughey, 2007) to the failure of in those that are most meaningful for them
politics to break patterns of social reproduction (Lockenhoff & Carstensen, 2004). Again, the
(Ruckert, 2010) to feminist critiques of the per- emphasis of this theory is on continuity or sta-
sistence of traditional family roles (Chodorow, bility of meaningful engagement. Cumulative
1978). advantage/disadvantage theory (C/AD) also
It is interesting to note that the valence of focuses on stability across individuals over
social scientists’ views of social reproduc- time and, thus, the social reproduction of social
tion changed quite dramatically over time. stratification. For economic outcomes, C/AD
Durkheim and later scholars who relied on hypothesizes that the rich literally get richer
structural functionalism began with the prem- and the poor get poorer. For health outcomes
ise that stability and order are problems that there is no expectation that health improves
societies must resolve to survive. Identifying throughout adulthood, but those who begin
social processes that promoted stability and adulthood in better health are expected to
social integration was viewed as a testimony to maintain better health over time than their less
the power of “social facts” to create order out advantaged peers. This is a social reproduction
of potential chaos. In short, structural func- scenario.
tionalists generally view social institutions The valence of aging and life course schol-
and the social arrangements that sustain them ars who document social reproduction is more
favorably. Scholars using the framework of mixed than was the case historically. Both
social reproduction tend to take the opposite the disengagement/continuity theory debate
view. Many studies purport to demonstrate and SST focused on identifying the conditions
that schools perpetuate social hierarchies rather under which older adults are satisfied with
than reduce them through upward mobility. their lives. Research based on continuity theory
The social reproduction of inequality is viewed and SST suggests that forms of social reproduc-
as problematic. Scholars in this tradition clearly tion are associated with subjective perceptions
favor social institutions that do not reproduce of life quality. Given the research questions
established social hierarchies. asked, there is no reason to view these social
A case also can be made that social reproduc- reproduction processes as anything but posi-
tion is at the heart of several major theories of tive. Researchers documenting the cumula-
aging. Continuity theory, which emerged as tive effects of advantage and disadvantage are
Rigney, D. (2010). The Matthew effect: How advantage begets Sussman, M. D. (2010). The randomized controlled trial:
further advantage. New York, NY: Columbia University An excellent design, but can it address the big ques-
Press. tions in neurodisability? Developmental Medicine & Child
Ritzer, G., & Stepinsky, J. (2012). Contemporary sociologi- Neurology, 52, 1066–1067.
cal theory and its classical roots: The basics (4th ed.). New The Economist. (2013). Growing apart: America’s income ine-
York, NY: McGraw Hill. quality is growing again. Retrieved from: <http://www.
Ross, N. A., Wolfson, M. C., Dunn, J. R., Berthelot, J., economist.com/news/leaders/21586578-americas-
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tion strategy paradigm. Review of International Political among older workers does not keep them out of the job mar-
Economy, 17, 816–839. ket. Retrieved from: <http://www.bls.gov/opub/
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Schafer, M. H., Ferraro, K. F., & Mustillo, S. A. (2011). US Census Bureau. (2012). Figure 1. Median age at first mar-
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ment in Europe. Retrieved from: <http://www.share- gin, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic attainment:
project.org/> Accessed 12.08.14. Genotype and intraindividual processes. Journal of
Shaw, B. A., & Krause, N. (2002). Exposure to physical vio- Marriage and Family, 75(1), 75–90.
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Aging and Health, 14, 467–494. occupational mobility influence health among working
Shi, L., & Starfield, B. (2001). The effect of primary care women? Comparing objective and subjective measures
physician supply and income inequality on mortality of work trajectories. Journal of Health and Social Behavior,
among blacks and whites in U.S. metropolitan areas. 53(4), 432–447.
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2
Trajectory Models for Aging Research
Scott M. Lynch1 and Miles G. Taylor2
1
Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA 2Pepper Institute on Aging and
Public Policy, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
O U T L I N E
Life course research investigates how human decades as important tools for investigating life
lives and events unfold over time, at both the course dynamics, including between-person dif-
individual level and larger levels, such as within ferences in development (George, 2009).
families or nations (Elder, 1985). At the individ- Trajectories are simply patterns in values of
ual level, life course research is concerned with variables across time. Based on this broad defi-
the development of individuals as they age, nition, the term “trajectory modeling” refers to a
as well as with between-person differences in number of qualitatively different methods used
development. Such differences often exist across to model an even greater number of social phe-
sexes, races, socioeconomic classes, and other nomena. For example, one may be interested
characteristics. Importantly, the birth cohort to in trajectories of unemployment rates, stock
which an individual belongs plays an impor- market closing values, or other macro-level
tant role in shaping development, as do period phenomena, either for a single case (e.g., the
events (e.g., economic depression). Trajectory United States) or for multiple cases (e.g., states
methods have emerged over the last several or nations). Alternatively, one may be interested
in trajectories of income or health at the individ- mass index (BMI), a commonly used measure
ual level. In some cases, one may use the term of weight per height (kg/m2) that is currently
“trajectory” to refer to the timing and ordering the focus of much attention in public health
of life events: school completion, employment, research and the media (National Institutes
marriage, childbearing, retirement, and death. of Health, 1998). BMI is a good measure with
In this chapter, we will restrict our discus- which to illustrate trajectory methods for two
sion of trajectory models to two broad classes – reasons. First, BMI is not highly volatile across
growth curve models (Bollen & Curran, 2006; adulthood for most individuals. While it tends
Meredith & Tisak, 1990) and latent class mod- to increase or decrease over age, it does not
els (Clogg, 1995; Goodman, 1974; Lazarsfeld & often change in a dramatic or erratic way.
Henry, 1968) – and two of their generalizations, Second, BMI can be treated as both continuous
including latent class growth models (Nagin and categorical, with well-established catego-
& Odgers, 2010) and growth mixture models ries. Specifically, a BMI under 20 is considered
(Muthén, 2004; Muthén & Muthén, 2000). While underweight; a BMI between 20 and 25 is con-
our discussion of these models can easily extend sidered normal weight; a BMI between 25 and
to macro-level units like states and countries, 30 is considered overweight; and a BMI above
we will focus our discussion on individual-level 30 is considered obese, with BMIs over 30 often
characteristics. Following our exposition of each further subdivided into two or more obesity
of these methods, we discuss a variety of issues classes. The continuous version of BMI is ide-
relevant to consider when using them in the face ally suited for growth modeling, while the cat-
of untestable assumptions. egorical version of BMI is most amenable to
Due to space constraints, we will exclude latent class methods, as we will discuss.
the latter type of trajectory models mentioned We restrict the sample to members of the
above involving sequences of different types arbitrarily chosen 1951 birth cohort who were
of life events. That is, we will focus only on interviewed in the 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010
models of repeated measures (i.e., levels) of the waves of the study. We further restrict the
same phenomenon, not the timing and pattern sample to blacks and whites, to those who
of multiple and qualitatively distinct events like survived the entire time period of observa-
school completion, employment, and marriage tion, and to those with complete information
(i.e., transitions). Recent extensions of the soft- on BMI, sex, race, region of birth (south versus
ware and methods we will discuss can allow elsewhere), and years of schooling. There are
transitions between states, but handling multi- two main approaches to trajectory modeling
ple, distinct types of transitions is still difficult – multivariate methods and hierarchical meth-
within the framework we discuss. Models that ods – and both can handle missing data, albeit
handle sequences of different events are more in somewhat different fashions. However, the
commonly called “sequence analyses” (see main focus of this chapter is not on the intrica-
Barban & Billari, 2012) and historically have cies of the methodology. Thus, we simplify our
required specialized software. discussion by eliminating data missing due to
For the purpose of illustrating trajectory both item nonresponse and attrition, although
methods, we rely on a subset of data from the we discuss missing data handling, including
Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a panel attrition, briefly later in the chapter. The result-
study of adults over age 50 in the United States. ing analytic sample size was n = 353, a sample
Details about the study design can be found large enough to illustrate all ideas in the chap-
elsewhere (RAND HRS Data, Version M., ter but small enough for the construction of
2013). Our key outcome measure is the body readable figures. We note at the outset that we
(A) (B)
40
40
3 3
1 1
35
35
3 3
3 3
3 1 3 1
30
30
4 4
4 4
BMI
BMI
4 4 4 4
1 1
25
25
1 1
2 2
2 2
2 2 2 2
20
20
15
15
3
45
1
35
3
3
3 1
30
4
35
4
BMI
BMI
4 4
1
25
1
25
2
2
2 2
20
15
15
FIGURE 2.1 Plots of individual patterns in BMI across time. Panel A shows measures for four persons (1–4); panel B
shows the best-fitting single regression line for these four cases; panel C shows individual-specific regression lines for these
four cases; panel D shows regression lines for 35 sample members.
There are at least two, now widely recog- Figure 2.2 shows a scatterplot of the inter-
nized, shortcomings of this modeling strat- cepts and slopes obtained from estimating OLS
egy. First, given that the data come from a regression models for all sample members.
panel, the OLS regression model is inappro- The mean intercept and mean slope for the
priate because the errors are not independent sample are indicated by dashed reference lines.
within individuals. Thus, standard errors of The mean BMI at baseline was just under 30,
the parameter estimates are biased downward, and the mean rate of change in BMI was just
rendering t-tests invalid. Second, the OLS above 0. The histogram above the scatterplot
model estimates the average age pattern for shows the distribution of intercepts for the
the four individuals instead of the age pattern sample, while the histogram to the right of the
for any single individual, but the average age scatterplot shows the distribution of slopes for
pattern may not reflect the actual experience of the sample. The figure reveals the consider-
any real person. able heterogeneity that a single OLS regression
summary would fail to capture. Furthermore,
the correlation between intercepts and slopes is
Example 2.1 negative and moderate, as the dotted reference
line in the scatterplot shows: those with higher
An alternative approach to modeling these baseline BMIs tend to experience less growth,
data might be to estimate a separate OLS or even decline, in BMI over time, while those
regression model for each person (Bollen with lower baseline BMIs tend to experience
& Curran, 2006). Figure 2.1C illustrates the greater growth in BMI over time.
results of this strategy. As the figure shows, This process of estimating an OLS regres-
while the single regression line for the sample sion model to capture individual-level patterns
had a positive slope, the slopes of the individ- over time illustrates the key concept underlying
ual lines are not uniformly positive. Instead, growth modeling. Whereas the OLS regression
two individuals have regression lines with model posits a single value for the inter-
steeper positive slopes than the average, and cept and slope, a growth model (GM) posits a
two have lines with negative slopes. The inter- unique intercept and slope for each individual
cepts vary as well. Thus, of the four persons, as shown in Eqs. (2.1) and (2.2), respectively:
one was obese at baseline and became heavier
over the study period; one was obese at base-
OLS: yit 5b01b1tit 1eit (2.1)
line but lost weight across time to end slightly
overweight (BMI > 25); one began as nor-
GM : yit 5 b0 i1 b1itit 1 eit (2.2)
mal weight but gained considerable weight
and was obese by the end of the period; and
one began as normal weight but lost weight In Eq. (2.1), yit is the outcome for individual i at
to become nearly underweight by the end of time t, b0 is the intercept (the value of y when
the period. In short, the single OLS regres- t = 0), b1 is the slope across time, tit is the time of
sion model missed considerable heterogeneity measurement of y, and eit is an error term that
across the sample. Figure 2.1D expands Figure is assumed to follow the usual assumptions that
2.1C in showing estimated OLS regression it is normally distributed, homoscedastic, and
lines for 35 sample members (a 10% subsam- independent across observations. Note that the
ple). As the figure shows, there is substantial subscripting of t implies that individuals do not
variation in the intercepts and slopes – that is, need to be measured at the same time nor on
trajectories. the same number of occasions.
5
0
Slopes
–5
–10
20 30 40 50 60 70
Intercepts
FIGURE 2.2 Scatterplot and histograms of unique individual intercepts and slopes estimated via OLS regression for all
sample members. Histogram at top shows distribution of intercepts; histogram at side shows distribution of slopes. Dashed
vertical and horizontal lines represent means of intercepts and slopes (respectively). Diagonal dotted reference line reflects
correlation between intercepts and slopes.
Equation (2.2) shows the extension of the average intercept and slope only; thus, ui and
model to include individual-specific intercepts vi are relegated to the error term as shown in
(b0i) and slopes (b1i). Equation (2.3) shows that Eq. (2.4), making it both autocorrelated (due
this model can be rewritten as an OLS regres- to cross-time commonality reflected in ui) and
sion model with a common intercept and slope heteroscedastic across time (because part of the
(denoted here as b00 and b10 – the second sub- error is a function of time: vitit):
script of 0 reflects a common intercept for
the sample), but with unit-specific “random yit 5 b001b10tit 1(eit 1ui1vitit ) (2.4)
effects” (ui and vi) that allow individual devia-
tions from the average: The model is therefore generally estimated
as a hierarchical model, with probability dis-
yit 5(b001 ui )1(b101 vi )tit 1 eit (2.3) tributions assigned to the random effects at a
second level (i.e., “Level 2”). Specifically, u and
Estimating this model via OLS is problem- v are usually assumed to be multivariate nor-
atic, however, because OLS can estimate an mally distributed with a mean vector of 0 and
a covariance matrix of Σ, which contains both Given that each individual has a unique
the variances of u and v and the covariance of u intercept and slope via the random effects u
with v. and v, we can evaluate whether fixed indi-
The normality assumption is a crucial one. vidual-level characteristics, like sex, race,
While the assumption reduces the number birth region, and education, “explain” some
of parameters to be estimated compared to of the variance in them. Figure 2.3 illustrates
the individual-specific OLS regression model this idea. The figure replicates the scatterplot
approach, it does so by imposing a specific from Figure 2.2 but limits the points to black
form for the collection of intercepts and slopes. females and white females all of whom were
At the same time, the specification of a specific born in the south. As the figure shows via the
distribution for the random effects – and the horizontal and vertical reference lines for the
estimation of the associated parameters – ena- mean intercepts and slopes for each group,
bles the random effects approach to make out- black women tend to have much higher base-
of-sample inferences regarding the population. line BMI, while white women tend to have a
Implications of this assumption are discussed much larger growth rate. In fact, white women
subsequently. have positive average growth in BMI over
4
B
2
W W
B B B
B W
W W
B W
W B W
WW B
BMI growth
B
W B B
W
W B
W W WW
W W W B
WW B
0
W W W B
B
W B W
W B
W W B
B W
W B
W B
W
–2
B
–4
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Baseline BMI
FIGURE 2.3 Scatterplot of intercepts and slopes from individual-level OLS regression models for black (B) and white
(W) women born in the south. Vertical reference lines show the mean intercepts for blacks (solid line) and whites (dashed
line); horizontal reference lines show the mean slopes.
In this equation, the ui and vi are not the same Intercept 34.86 (1.98)*** 0.16 (0.30)
as before: they have become residual terms Male 0.72 (0.78) −0.06 (0.12)
that reflect unobserved heterogeneity that Black 2.28 (1.02)* −0.05 (0.15)
remains in individual intercepts and slopes
after extracting similarities that exist among South −1.16 (0.87) −0.13 (0.13)
those who share values of X (e.g., race, sex). ui Education −0.46 (0.14)** 0.01 (0.02)
and vi remain as random effects because they Correlation (b0i,b1i) −0.28
are assumed to follow a probability distribu-
tion, similar to the typical OLS error term, ei. R2 0.046 0.010
In contrast, X are fixed covariates, and so b00, MULTIVARIATE GROWTH APPROACH
b10, γ, and δ are called “fixed effects.” That is,
Model 1 (unconditional)
these coefficients are assumed not to vary. For
this reason, the model is sometimes referred to Mean 29.16 (0.39) 0.196 (0.057)
as a “mixed model,” or a “random coefficient Variance 50.5 (4.03) 0.40 (0.13)
model” (Raudenbush, 2001). Furthermore,
Correlation (b0i,b1i) −0.21
the model is often considered a special type of
“hierarchical model,” with Eq. (2.2) represent- Model 2 (conditional)
ing level 1, and Eqs. (2.5a) and (2.5b) represent- Intercept 34.90 (1.96)*** 0.13 (0.29)
ing level 2 (Raudenbush & Bryk, 2002). Finally,
Male 0.71 (0.77) −0.07 (0.12)
it is important to note that, because there are
two levels of error terms, or “variance compo- Black 2.24 (1.02)* 0.003 (0.15)
nents,” all growth models are hierarchical mod- South −1.18 (0.86) −0.13 (0.13)
els by common statistical terminology. Thus,
Education −0.46 (0.14)*** 0.01 (0.02)
the terms “growth model” and “hierarchical
growth model” are interchangeable, with the Correlation (b0i,b1i) −0.21
latter containing some redundancy.
Note: Standard errors shown in parentheses. Growth modeling
Table 2.1 presents the results of two sets of approach estimates standard errors for all parameters, including
models. The upper half of the table shows the variances.
# p < 0.1, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.
results of following the strategy of estimating
the two OLS regression models. The lower half
of the table shows the results of estimating the
model as a single, two-level hierarchical model In short, growth in BMI was not predicted well
using structural equation modeling (SEM) soft- by this set of covariates.
ware, Mplus (Geiser, 2013; Muthén & Muthén, The bottom half of the table replicates the
1998–2012). top half but in a growth modeling framework.
In the Stage 1 OLS analyses, regression mod- Model 1 was an “unconditional” model, mean-
els were estimated for each sample member as ing that covariates were not included; this
described above. The mean intercept obtained model corresponds to the Stage 1 model in the
from these regressions was 29.16, with a vari- top half of the table. The estimated mean inter-
ance of 53.7. The mean slope was 0.195, with a cept and slope were almost identical to those
variance of 1.15. The correlation between inter- obtained via the OLS approach. The variances,
cepts and slopes was −0.28. however, were substantially smaller (e.g., 50.5
In the Stage 2 OLS analyses (i.e., a separate, for the SEM-based approach versus 53.7 for
second set of models), these intercepts and OLS-based approach for the intercept param-
slopes were regressed on covariates in two eter). The reason for this difference is that the
regression models (one each). In the first model, OLS modeling approach fits the individual tra-
the intercept for the intercept (b00) – that is, the jectories better, because it does not assume any
intercept for the baseline BMI – was 34.86. Males distribution for the collection of intercepts and
have higher BMIs at baseline than females slopes together. That is, since the intercepts
(γ1 = 0.72; p > 0.05), blacks have higher base- and slopes are estimated as n separate regres-
line BMIs than whites (γ2 = 2.28; p < 0.05), and sion models, there is no assumption regard-
persons born in the south have lower baseline ing the combined distribution of intercepts and
BMIs than those born elsewhere (γ3 = −1.16; p > slopes. In contrast, because the growth mod-
0.05). Finally, those with greater schooling have eling approach simultaneously estimates all
lower BMIs at baseline than those with less, intercepts and slopes under the assumption
with each year of schooling reducing baseline that the distribution of them is normal, there are
BMI by γ4 = 0.46 units. Race and education were larger, time-specific individual deviations of the
the only significant predictors of baseline BMI. observed measures from the individual trajecto-
In short, if we wish to predict an individual’s ries. Thus, there is greater measurement error at
BMI, we would use Eq. (2.5a) tailored to this set level 1 and less variance in the random effects.
of covariates. All in all, these covariates explain The bottom quarter of the table shows the
4.6% of the variance in the collection of BMI results of the growth modeling approach for the
intercepts, indicating that the residual variance, conditional growth model, that is, the model in
var(ui), is 95.6% of the total variance of 53.7. which covariate influences on the growth param-
In the second Stage 2 model, the intercept for eters are simultaneously estimated with the
the slope (b10) – that is, the value of the slope variance in those parameters themselves. These
for those with all covariate values set to 0 – results are very similar to those obtained via the
was 0.195, indicating that the average sample second-stage OLS regression model. However,
member saw an increase in BMI of 0.195 units the coefficients and standard errors differ slightly,
per study wave. No covariates had significant with the estimates obtained via growth being bet-
effects on the BMI slope, but the coefficients ter in a statistical sense, because simultaneous
(δ) for males, blacks, and persons born in the estimation of the level 1 and 2 equations is more
south were negative, while the coefficient for efficient, and the standard errors do not suf-
education was positive. The R-square for the fer from heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation
model predicting BMI slopes was small at 1%. implicit under the OLS approach.
(A) (B)
0.08
0.08
Density
Density
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
20 30 40 50 60 70 20 30 40 50 60 70
BMI BMI
(C) (D)
0.08
0.08
Density
Density
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
20 30 40 50 60 70 20 30 40 50 60 70
BMI BMI
FIGURE 2.4 Histograms of observed wave 1 BMI (solid lines) with additional histograms superimposed (dashed lines).
Panel A shows the best-fitting normal distribution, based on the mean and variance of BMI. Panel B shows the best-fitting
set of two normal distributions. Panel C shows the best-fitting two-component mixture distribution based on the distribu-
tions in panel B. Panel D shows the best-fitting three-component mixture distribution.
Hæmoglobinæmia, 437.
Hæmoglobinuria, 437.
Hemorrhagic gastro-enteritis in dogs, 252.
Hair and bristle balls, dog and pig, 322.
Hair balls in intestines, 320.
Hair balls in intestines, horse, 320.
Hair balls in stomach, 187.
Hard palate, congestion of, 19.
Hare lip, 49.
Harvest bug on lips, 7.
Helebore poisoning, 285.
Helleborus niger poisoning, 285.
Hepatic abscess, 495.
Hepatic congestion, 483.
Hepatic congestion in dog, 486.
Hepatic congestion in solipeds, 484.
Hepatic hemorrhage, 487.
Hepatic inflammation, 490.
Hepatic steatosis, 508.
Hepatitis, 490.
Hepatitis, infective, 498.
Hepatitis, parenchymatous, 491.
Hepatitis, suppurative, 495.
Hernia, 371.
Hernia, mesenteric, 368.
Hernia of reticulum, 367.
Hernia, omental, 368.
Hernia, pelvic, 357.
Hernia, phrenic, 359.
Hernia through foramen of Winslow, 370.
Honey dew, poisoning by, 292.
Horsetail poisoning, 286.
Hydrochloric acid and gastro-enteritis, 266.
Icterus, 457.
Icterus, from lupin poison, 476.
Icterus nouveaux nés, 473.
Impacted cloaca, 209, 319.
Impacted rumen, 108.
Impaction of colon in solipeds, 203.
Impaction of large intestine, soliped, 197.
Impaction of omasum, 123.
Indigestion, acute gastric in solipeds, 150.
Indigestion, gastric, in carnivora, 158.
Indigestion, gastric, in swine, 159.
Indigestion in abomasum, 135.
Indigestion in fourth stomach in sucklings, 136.
Indigestion, ingluvial, 94.
Indigestion, intestinal, 193.
Indigestion, intestinal in birds, 209.
Indigestion, intestinal, in solipeds, 197.
Indigestion with impaction, in dog, 205.
Indigestion, tympanitic, of rumen, 96.
Ingluvial indigestion, 94.
Intestinal atony, 314.
Intestinal calculi, 323.
Intestinal congestion, from verminous embolism, 210.
Intestinal congestion in solipeds, 220.
Intestinal indigestion in birds, 209.
Intestinal indigestion with impaction, 197.
Intestinal invagination, 344.
Intestinal obstruction in birds, 209.
Intestinal obstruction in dog, 205.
Intestinal pain, 308.
Intestinal strangulations, 356.
Intestinal tympany, 193.
Intestine, abscess of, 336.
Intestine, dilation of, 340.
Intestine, hyperplasia of, 378.
Intestine, rupture of, 332.
Intestines, foreign bodies in, 328.
Intestines, hair balls in, 320.
Intestines, strangulation of, by ovarian ligament, 380.
Intestine, stricture of, 342.
Intestine, tumors of, 374.
Intestine, ulceration of, 338.
Intestine, volvulus of, 351.
Intussusception, 344.
Invagination of bowel, 344.
Iodine poisoning, 276.
Iodism, 276.
Iron, poisoning by, 279.
Jaundice, 457
Jaundice, catarrhal, 463.
Jaundice, catarrhal, in dogs, 467.
Jaundice from ferments in fodder, 476.
Jaundice from lupins, 476.
Jaundice from obstruction, 458.
Jaundice from poisons, 459.
Jaundice in cattle, 472.
Jaundice in new born, 473.
Jaundice without bile obstruction, 459.
Juniperus sabina, poisoning, 286.
Palatitis, 19.
Pancreas, diseases of, 537.
Pancreas, foreign bodies in, 542.
Pancreatic abscess, 541.
Pancreatic calculi, 543.
Pancreatic tumors, 544.
Pancreatitis, catarrhal, 538.
Pancreatitis, interstitial, 540.
Pancreatitis, suppurative, 541.
Paper-ball in stomach, 188.
Papilloma of gullet, 93.
Papilloma of omasum, 133.
Papilloma of stomach, 191.
Paralysis of gullet, 92.
Paralysis of rectum, 371.
Paralysis of the pharynx, 83.
Paralysis of tongue, 37.
Parasites of liver, 537.
Parasites of rumen and reticulum, 122.
Parasites of spleen, 564.
Paris green poisoning, 269.
Parotid gland, inflammation of, 41.
Parotitis, 41.
Pecking feathers, 76.
Pelvic hernia in ox, 357.
Perforating ulcer of stomach, 179.
Perihepatitis, 500.
Perisplenitis, 554.
Peritonitis, 380.
Peritonitis, chronic, 392.
Peritonitis, general causes, 380.
Peritonitis in birds, 399.
Peritonitis in carnivora, 397.
Peritonitis, infection of, 385.
Peritonitis in ruminants, 395.
Peritonitis in solipeds, 383.
Peritonitis, traumatic, 383.
Pharyngeal abscess, 58.
Pharyngitis, catarrhal, 49.
Pharyngitis, chronic, 73.
Pharyngitis, microbes in, 50, 56.
Pharyngitis, phlegmonous, 54.
Pharyngitis, pseudomembranous, 60.
Pharyngitis, pseudomembranous, in birds, 67.
Pharyngitis, pseudomembranous, in cattle, 63.
Pharyngitis, pseudomembranous, in dogs, 66.
Pharyngitis, pseudomembranous, in sheep, 64.
Pharyngitis, pseudomembranous, in solipeds, 61.
Pharynx, paralysis of, 83.
Pharynx, tumors of, 84.
Phenol poisoning, 281.
Phlegmonous gastritis in horse, 162.
Phosphatic calculi in stomach, 188.
Phosphorus poisoning, 272.
Phrenic hernia, 359.
Phytolacca, poisoning by, 286.
Pica, 76.
Pins in stomach, 188.
Pip in birds, 18.
Plants, paralyzing element in, 95.
Playthings in stomach, 188.
Podophyllum, poisoning by, 286.
Poisoning by acetic acid, 266.
Poisoning by aconite, 286.
Poisoning by acorns, 286.
Poisoning by aloes, 286.
Poisoning by American water hemlock, 285.
Poisoning by ammonia, 264.
Poisoning by anemone, 286.
Poisoning by antimony, 273.
Poisoning by army worm, 288.
Poisoning by arsenic, 269, 271.
Poisoning by artichokes, 286.
Poisoning by astragalus, 287.
Poisoning by azedarach, 286.
Poisoning by bacteria, 289.
Poisoning by barium, 279.
Poisoning by bluestone, 276.
Poisoning by box leaves, 284.
Poisoning by brine, 268.
Poisoning by bromine, 276.
Poisoning by bryony, 286.
Poisoning by buckwheat, 286.
Poisoning by cantharides, 288.
Poisoning by carbolic acid, 281.
Poisoning by castor seeds, 282.
Poisoning by chickweed, 286.
Poisoning by chromium, 280.
Poisoning by cicuta maculata, 285.
Poisoning by cicuta virosa, 286.
Poisoning by clematis, 286.
Poisoning by cockroach, 288.
Poisoning by colchicum autumnale, 285.
Poisoning by conium maculatum, 286.
Poisoning by copper, 276.
Poisoning by creosote, 282.
Poisoning by croton seeds or oil, 283.
Poisoning by cryptogams, 290, 292.
Poisoning by daffodils, 284.
Poisoning by digitalis, 286.
Poisoning by ergot, 289.
Poisoning by euphorbia, 283.
Poisoning by fungi, 289, 291.
Poisoning by galega, 286.
Poisoning by giant fennel, 286.
Poisoning by honey dew, 292.
Poisoning by horsetail, 286.
Poisoning by iodine, 276.
Poisoning by iron, 279.
Poisoning by laburnum, 286.
Poisoning by lathyrus, 286.
Poisoning by lolium temulentum, 286.
Poisoning by male fern, 286.
Poisoning by melilot, 286.
Poisoning by mercurialis annua, 286.
Poisoning by mineral acids, 266.
Poisoning by moulds, 289, 290.
Poisoning by muriatic acid, 266.
Poisoning by mustard, 287.
Poisoning by nitrate of soda, 268.
Poisoning by nitric acid, 266.
Poisoning by nux vomica, 286.
Poisoning by œnanthe crocata, 286.
Poisoning by oxalic acid, 266.
Poisoning by oxytropis, 287.
Poisoning by Paris green, 269.
Poisoning by phosphorus, 272.
Poisoning by phytolacca, 286.
Poisoning by podophyllum, 286.
Poisoning by poppy, 286.
Poisoning by potash, 265.
Poisoning by potatoe beetle, 288.
Poisoning by potatoe tops, 286.
Poisoning by ranunculus, 284.
Poisoning by resinous plants, 286.
Poisoning by rhododendron, 286.
Poisoning by ryegrass, 286.
Poisoning by salts of mercury, 274.
Poisoning by saltpeter, 268.
Poisoning by savin, 286.
Poisoning by silver, 278.
Poisoning by smut, 289.
Poisoning by snapdragon, 286.
Poisoning by soda, 265.
Poisoning by sodium chloride, 267.
Poisoning by spoiled potatoes, 296, 300.
Poisoning by spurge laurel, 283.
Poisoning by spurry seeds, 286.
Poisoning by St. John’s wort, 286.
Poisoning by strychnia, 286.
Poisoning by sulphur, 275.
Poisoning by sulphuric acid, 266.
Poisoning by tares, 286.
Poisoning by tartar emetic, 273.
Poisoning by tobacco, 286.
Poisoning by toxins in food and water, 292.
Poisoning by trefoil, 286.
Poisoning by vetches, 286.
Poisoning by veratrum viride, 285.
Poisoning by white vitriol, 277.
Poisoning by yew, 286.
Poisoning by zinc, 277.
Poisoning, chronic, by arsenic, 271.
Poke root, poisoning by, 286.
Polypi on lips, 6.
Poppy poisoning, 286.
Postpharyngeal abscess, 58.
Potash and gastro-enteritis, 265.
Potato beetle, poisoning by, 288.
Potato tops, poisoning by, 286.
Pseudomembranous enteritis in birds, 226.
Pseudomembranous enteritis in cattle, 223.
Pseudomembranous enteritis in dogs, 225.
Pseudomembranous enteritis in sheep, 224.
Pseudomembranous enteritis in solipeds, 221.
Pseudomembranous pharyngitis in cattle, 62.
Pseudomembranous pharyngitis in dogs, 66.
Pseudomembranous pharyngitis in pigeons and chickens, 67.
Pseudomembranous pharyngitis in sheep, 64.
Pseudomembranous pharyngitis in solipeds, 61.
Pseudomembranous pharyngitis in swine, 65.
Ptomaines and toxins of brine, 268.
Ptyalism, 39.