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The US Role in
NATO’s Survival After
the Cold War
Julie Garey
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Benjamin de Carvalho
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
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University of Queensland
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University of Cambridge
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The US Role in
NATO’s Survival After
the Cold War
Julie Garey
Department of Political Science
Northeastern University
Boston, MA, USA
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To Ella Grace, Garrett, Liam, and Noah, because everything I do is out of
love for them, and to Brandon, who made this possible with his love for me.
Acknowledgments
vii
viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
1 Introduction 1
NATO Persistence: The Sum of Unequal Parts 2
An Argument in Support of US-Centric Analyses 4
Hypotheses on NATO’s Persistence: Value Maximization 6
Hypotheses on NATO’s Persistence: Alliance Utility 9
Case Selection and Research Contributions 10
What’s at Stake for the United States and NATO 12
Book Outline 15
References 16
ix
x CONTENTS
Bibliography223
Index245
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
continuation. Thus, the case of NATO in the post-war period merits fur-
ther investigation. This book answers the question: why has the NATO
alliance persisted in the post-Cold War period, and why does it matter?
1
This threshold is not expressly written in the North Atlantic Treaty; rather, it was agreed
upon by alliance members in 2006 and reaffirmed in 2014.
1 INTRODUCTION 3
Evidence from each of the four cases illustrates why the United States
continued to pursue the alliance relationship and ensure its survival.
Although NATO is an alliance comprised of 29 member states and struc-
tured on the principles of decision-making by consensus, the United
States’ status as a global hegemon made it the de facto leader of the alli-
ance. NATO evolved to serve a very specific role in conflict closely align-
ing with US interests. Due in large part to this evolution, the alliance
persisted despite projections that either the United States or Western
European states would abandon the alliance in favor of alternative arrange-
ments. Thus, NATO persistence is explained, at least in part, by the
US-NATO relationship and the United States’ leadership within
the alliance.
However, this explanation raises other critically important questions: in
what ways is the alliance beneficial or detrimental to the United States’
military or political objectives? How do the aforementioned conflicts illus-
trate the importance of the alliance to the United States? And, more
broadly, why does the United States have a vested interest in ensuring
NATO’s persistence?
Hypothesis: The alliance’s persistence allows the United States to improve its
ability to engage in conflict.
Hypothesis: The historical legacy of US-NATO relations, US primacy after the
Cold War, and US leadership within the alliance allowed the United States
to exert a high level of influence over the post-war development of the
alliance.
2
The U.S.’s combatant commander for the European Command (USEUCOM) is a dual
role: in addition to overseeing American resources in the region, the USEUCOM
Commander is also the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR), chief military offi-
cer for the alliance.
1 INTRODUCTION 15
Book Outline
In the next chapter, I present the relevant theoretical approaches to alli-
ance behavior and participation to further develop the analytical frame-
work. The third, fourth, fifth, and sixth chapters trace the engagements in
Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. These four cases are a diverse rep-
resentation of major US operations in the post-Cold War period wherein
NATO was an important actor (even if it did not directly participate, as in
the case of Iraq). I confirm each of the hypotheses on US-NATO relations
for each case. The seventh chapter is a comprehensive assessment of the
US-NATO relationship and its evolution during and after the four cases.
It includes an analysis of the United States’ responses to the post-Cold
War period and shifts in the balance of power. The evidence presented in
the seventh chapter and the collective case evidence confirms the first
hypothesis regarding NATO’s persistence after the Cold War as resulting
from the United States’ role in the alliance. The eighth chapter further
explores the implications of these findings.
16 J. GAREY
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18 J. GAREY
deliberate force in maintaining the alliance, thus making it the key explan-
atory variable in NATO’s persistence. From this, I conclude with the
hypotheses as to how and why the United States played this integral role.
faced threats from other states both inside and outside of the alliance, the
United States suffered the additional consequences of its status as global
hegemon in the new unipolar world order. Thus, the threats it faced dif-
fered from that of its allies, yet its commitment to the alliance did not
waver—in fact, American policymakers continued to embrace its role as
the largest contributor and de facto leader of alliance from which the value
derived had changed. Further, the works of Keohane, Leeds, Gelpi, and
Deudney and Ikenberry inform this book’s hypotheses concerning the
role of legitimacy enhancement and norm conformity in guiding US
actions toward NATO.
At the end of the Cold War, NATO suffered from what Wallace Thies
(2009) aptly describes as “alliance crisis syndrome,” a perpetual debate
between scholars and policymakers regarding the practicality of maintain-
ing the alliance in peacetime and a concern its demise was imminent.
Although the longevity of the alliance was continually challenged, scholars
presented multiple competing explanations as to the causes of its persis-
tence. Building on the previous literature concerning alliance cohesion
during conflict, scholars established both utilitarian and identity-based
explanations for understanding the same phenomenon in peacetime. Still,
no clear consensus emerged. In the following section, I explore each of
these types of explanations and demonstrate how these bodies of research
inform the remaining hypotheses of this book.
Sandler and Murdoch 2000; Cahen 1989; Sloan 1985), these assumptions
were challenged by the works of Ivo Daalder and James Goldgeier, Philip
Jones, and Martin van Heuven, among others. Daalder and Goldgeier
(2006) advance the discussion of the utility of NATO for democracy pro-
motion. They suggest that NATO’s future success is embedded in the
ability of the alliance to serve as a peace-spreading mechanism, and the
best way to do so is to incentivize states into adopting democratic prac-
tices by extending membership offers to any state seeking to join
NATO. Jones (2007) utilizes a public goods model to understand the
relationships between NATO members, establishing a framework for
understanding the individual incentives of policymakers within the alli-
ance. He finds individual policymakers are inclined to support NATO
policies when there is a significant benefit for doing so—for example, poli-
cymakers who represent the interests of defense good manufacturers are
prone to support NATO because of the trade relationships that exist as a
result of the alliance. van Heuven (2001) argues that there is equality in
many aspects of the alliance, including in enlargement goals, risk sharing,
organization and leadership, and influence on NATO-Russia relations. He
acknowledges an unequal distribution of capabilities and the debates over
burden-sharing, but explains that the inequality has always been present
and subsequently, does not impact the likelihood of persistence. Jack
Vincent, Ira Straus, and Richard Biondi (2001) utilize capability theory to
understand member states attitudes toward decision-making in NATO. As
a result of the changes NATO underwent in the 1990s, Vincent et al.
argue that different member states have different preferences for the future
of the alliance based on their ability to contribute to the alliance and their
outside influence on the international system. Based on survey data and
information about the capabilities of states, they find that states with the
highest capacity are also more likely to support changes to the NATO
decision-making structures, but all allies remain vested in the alliance’s
persistence.
The answers to each of the utilitarian approaches—but particularly the
second and third questions—are essentially variations on the same theme:
path dependence (Levi 1997). According to Margaret Levi (1997) “when
organization develops, the path is even more firmly established, for orga-
nization tends to bring with it vested interests who will choose to maintain
a path even when it is not optimal.” The historical legacy hypothesis pre-
sented here is supported by claims of path dependency within NATO,
under which all of Paul Pierson’s “features” of political life are present:
26 J. GAREY
vated the Soviet threat into a broader set of social practices. This led
member states to develop a set of ideologies that they then ascribed to—
“the Western way of life.”
Robert Jervis (2002) writes of the likelihood of a sustained security
community between the United States and Western Europe. He argues
that the post-Cold War era presented an unprecedented opportunity for
a security community to endure, as “the states that constitute this (com-
munity) are the leading members of the international system and so are
natural rivals who in the past were central to the violent struggle for
security, power, and contested values.” He posits “no one state can move
away from the reliance on war itself lest it become a victim, they can col-
lectively do so if each forsakes the resort to force.” Robbin Laird (1991)
suggests that there is a necessity for organizations like NATO to persist
in order to nurture a “Western European identity” and ensure the stabil-
ity of Europe. Additionally, NATO needs to look to its institutional part-
ners to work effectively instead of becoming the only organization for
promoting collective defense. He highlights three issues for post-Cold
War Europe that signify the importance of a Western collective defense
effort spanning far beyond NATO: the residual threat of Russia, the
range of threats that exist outside of Europe, and the continued dynam-
ics between European states.
The identity-based literature on NATO’s persistence informs the first,
second, and fourth hypotheses in important ways. Legitimization of con-
flict engagement and conformity to norms are central features of Western
liberal philosophy on war, as evidenced by the emphasis on the concept of
just war (Brown 2015). The proliferation of historical and Western norms
as described by Deudney and Ikenberry, Sjursen, Klein, Jervis, and Laird
further support this. Finally, the idea of the United States wielding its
hegemonic influence as the purveyor of not only these Western values but
also how to best preserve these values while pursuing a more efficient and
effective NATO is a natural progression from the tradition of understand-
ing the alliance as an identity enhancer.
may serve a future purpose. The debates over enlargement led not only to
consensus between the United States and NATO, but also led to a renewed
sense of purpose for the alliance and for the US-NATO relationship.
Jason Davidson (2011) identifies how states were incentivized to con-
tribute to US alliances because they sought to maintain or improve their
standing in the international system, as well as their relationships with the
United States. Even when states could free ride, they engage in allied
efforts because participation and a more equal burden-sharing enhances
states’ prestige, which according to Davidson outweighs both the value
from and cost of participation in the alliance. Charles Barry (2012)
addresses the manifestation of US-NATO relations in operational terms,
focusing primarily on issues of interoperability. Advocating for sustained
participation in the alliance, Barry asserts NATO is beneficial to the US
military because it provides an overwhelming advantage in overseas
engagements, ranging from cultural knowledge and language skills, to
number of troops deployed, to political and diplomatic benefits as well as
financial incentives. Additionally, the United States devoted a number of
resources for standardizing operations within NATO—the “NATO
way”—and ideas about interoperability establish the foundation on which
contemporary US doctrine is based. Barry asserts that it is these military
advantages that not only prove the NATO relationship beneficial for the
United States, but also show the opportunity for the alliance to adapt to
the contemporary threat environment and persist (with US leadership).
The conceptual framework used to analyze each of the cases presented
in the proceeding chapters, as well as the inter-conflict periods, is informed
by each body of literature while also contributing new insights in and
bridging the gap between utilitarian explanations for NATO persistence,
institutional explanations for NATO persistence, and US-NATO relations.
Both utilitarian and identity-based explanations for NATO’s persistence
expressly address the role of legitimacy and legitimation of action at both
the state and organizational level. As described by utilitarian analyses, the
information sharing, transparency, familiarity, and relationship-building
that occurs within the alliance are valuable in their own right, for the alli-
ance as a whole and its individual members. However, collectively these
processes build additional foundations for the proliferation of identities,
values, norms, and expectations for conformity to each, as described by
identity-based explanations for NATO’s persistence.
In realizing its conception of the new world order, the United States
went to great lengths to shape the world in a manner consistent with its
2 ALLIANCES, NATO, AND THE POST-COLD WAR ERA 31
Case Selection
The proceeding chapters present four cases to demonstrate the ways in
which the United States facilitated NATO’s persistence.
Kosovo
In the 1990s, NATO undertook two missions in the Balkans. The first,
Operation Deliberate Force (ODF), was a 12-day, very limited air cam-
paign conducted during the 1992–1995 Bosnian War. ODF was a key
factor in convincing Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic to negotiate a
settlement at the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords. Despite ongoing human
rights abuses across the former Yugoslavia, it was not until 1998 that
NATO and the United States undertook a second, far more aggressive,
and sustained air war against Milosevic. When the Serbian police cracked
down on the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and attempted to capture a
2 ALLIANCES, NATO, AND THE POST-COLD WAR ERA 33
KLA member in early March 1998, their efforts resulted in the killing of
over 80 ethnic Albanians and the injuring of many more. As a result, the
international community increased diplomatic sanctions against Milosevic,
pushed to open access to UN and international observers, including the
envoy led by US diplomats Richard Holbrooke and Christopher Hill, and
amped up negotiations between the KLA and Serbian leaders. Even in the
wake of continued violence, the UN Security Council refused to authorize
international intervention.
At the failed Rambouillet negotiations in February and March 1999,
the need for intervention became obvious to many allies, even in the
absence of UN authorization. On March 24, 1999, NATO launched air-
strikes against the Serbian military forces under Operation Allied Force
(OAF). The airstrikes would last nearly three months and resulted in the
NATO-led, post-war reconstruction operation Kosovo Force, or KFOR
(Bjola 2009). Today, KFOR forces have been dramatically transformed
but are still in place. Retrospective evaluations of NATO’s actions deemed
OAF an “illegal but legitimate” intervention.
Many have argued about both the value and utility of NATO during
the 1999 Kosovo intervention. Interest in the alliance had been declining
since the end of the Cold War. It was predicted a European-Atlantic part-
nership would be unnecessary, and states would become more and more
reliant on loose arrangements, rather than formal alliances (Crotty 1995).
In addition, some argued that NATO lost credibility because the nature of
threats to member states had changed dramatically, and there would not
be an overriding threat that could be used to unite NATO members
(Hallams 2009). The mission in Kosovo also seemed to signify a shift in
strategic goals for NATO; the world was a less threatening place to the
member states and therefore the alliance could expand its goals and work
in conjunction with organizations such as the UN in nonstability securing
operations.
OAF exposed some of the United States’ concerns with NATO and its
European allies, primarily in terms of military capabilities and efficient,
united decision-making (Williams 2008). Although President Clinton was
extremely reluctant to intervene in the Balkans, the intervention in Bosnia
led the United States to believe that if it wanted quick and decisive action
in Kosovo, it would have to take a lead role in deciding the extent of
NATO involvement (Mowle and Sacko 2007). President Clinton’s reluc-
tance reflected in his refusal to commit ground troops, which greatly influ-
enced the alliance’s decision to pursue an air-only campaign. Operation
34 J. GAREY
Allied Force exposed NATO’s operational weaknesses and left the United
States leery of employing NATO for future multilateral action.
Nonetheless, the United States would continue its participation and
investment in the alliance. It would use its experiences in Kosovo and its
political strength in the alliance to improve NATO’s decision-making
structure, operational capacity, and utility in conflict. As the case of Kosovo
demonstrates, the Clinton administration engaged NATO for both legiti-
macy and utility, confirming the hypotheses on the importance of NATO
persistence to the United States. Legitimacy was important to many of the
allies because of the absence of a UN Security Council resolution autho-
rizing the intervention. Adherence to international norms was also impor-
tant to US policymakers, particularly in regard to the use of force for
humanitarian intervention. Although the Kosovo operation exposed the
operational weaknesses of the alliance, NATO’s utility was also a deciding
factor for the administration. During both the Bosnian and Kosovo inter-
ventions, the United States used its influence in the alliance to encourage
political and operational changes that would allow the European allies to
act without US support if necessary.
Afghanistan
In the days following the 9/11 attacks on the United States, the Bush
administration received overwhelming support from its international part-
ners. Of the 2977 people killed in the 4 assaults (excluding the 19 terror-
ists), 372 were foreign nationals, many from states such as Great Britain,
India, South Korea, Canada, and Japan. In addition, over 7000 people
(including foreign nationals) were wounded (Lansford 2012). The United
States quickly identified al Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden, as the perpe-
trators of the attacks and moved to present evidence of al Qaeda’s close
ties to the Taliban, the governing party of Afghanistan. On September 12,
2001, NATO invoked Article V for the first time in its history, thus calling
the allies to come to the United States’ defense. The United Nations, the
European Union, the Organization of American States, and other multi-
lateral organizations also expressed support for the US retaliatory strikes
in the interest of self-defense.
Though the United States enjoyed significant international support, its
initial combat plans for Afghanistan, Operation Enduring Freedom, did
not include NATO. US policymakers, including Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld, instead devised a strategy that relied heavily on special
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