PROBABILITY

sample space is the list of pairs of numbers in

the chart

- Probability is a field of mathematics

that deals with chance.
 An experiment is an activity in which
the results cannot be predicted with
certainty.
 Each repetition of an experiment is
called a trial.
 An outcome is a result of an
experiment.
 An event is any collection of
outcomes, and a simple event is an
event with only one possible outcome. Example 2
An event can be one outcome or more
than one outcome. For example, if a Find the sample space for drawing one card
die is rolled and a 6 shows, this result from an ordinary deck of cards.
is called an outcome, since it is a
Solution:
result of a single trial. An event with
one outcome is called a simple event. Since there are 4 suits (hearts, clubs,
The event of getting an odd number diamonds, and spades) and 13 cards for each
when a die is rolled is called a suit (ace through king), there are 52 outcomes
compound event, since it consists of in the sample space.
three outcomes or three simple events.
In general, a compound event consists
of two or more outcomes or simple
events.

SAMPLE SPACE
 The sample space for a given
experiment is a set S that contains all
possible outcomes of the experiment Example 3
Some sample spaces for various probability A fair dice is rolled and an unbiased is tossed.
experiments are shown here: Draw a table to show the possible outcomes.

Example 1
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.
Solution:
Since each die can land in six different ways,
and two dice are rolled, the sample space can
be presented by a rectangular array. The
TREE DIAGRAM
• is a device consisting of line segments
emanating from a starting point and also from
the outcome point. It is used to determine all
possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Example 1
Use a tree diagram to show all the possible
outcomes when two unbiased coins are tossed.
Solution:
The diagram shows that there are 4 possible
outcomes.
Probabilities should be expressed as reduced
fractions or rounded to two or three decimal
places. When the probability of an event is an
extremely small decimal, it is permissible to
round the decimal to the first nonzero digit
after the point. For example, 0.0000587 would
be 0.00006.

Example 1
Find the probability of getting a black 10 when
drawing a card from a deck.

Example 2
In a drawer there are some white socks and
some black socks. Tim takes out one sock and
then a second. Draw a tree diagram to show
the possible outcomes.

Example 2
If a family has three children, find the
probability that two of the three children are
girls.
THREE BASIC INTERPRETATIONS

• 1. Classical probability
• 2. Empirical or relative frequency probability
• 3. Subjective probability

1. Classical Probability
Example 3
Classical probability uses sample spaces to
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find
determine the numerical probability that an
these probabilities.
event will happen. You do not actually have to
perform the experiment to determine that a. Of getting a jack.
probability. Classical probability assumes that
all outcomes in the sample space are equally b. Of getting the 6 of clubs (i.e., a 6 and a
likely to occur. club).
c. Of getting a 3 or a diamond. d. Of getting a
3 or a 6.

Probabilities can be expressed as fractions,

decimals, where appropriate percentages.

Rounding Rule for Probabilities

 b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O
blood.
FOUR BASIC PROBABILITY
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
RULES

Example 2
Hospital records indicated that knee
replacement patients stayed in the hospital for
the number of days shown in the distribution.

2. Empirical Probability
The difference between classical and
empirical probability is that classical
probability assumes that certain outcomes are Find these probabilities.
equally likely (such as the outcomes when a a. A patient stayed exactly 5 days.
die is rolled), while empirical probability relies
on actual experience to determine the b. A patient stayed less than 6 days.
likelihood of outcomes. In empirical
c. A patient stayed at most 4 days.
probability, one might actually roll a given die
6000 times, observe the various frequencies, d. A patient stayed at least 5 days.
and use these frequencies to determine the
probability of an outcome.

Example 1
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood,
22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 3. Subjective Probability
had type AB blood. Set up a frequency
distribution and find the following The third type of probability is called
probabilities. subjective probability. Subjective probability
uses a probability value based on an educated
a. A person has type O blood. guess or estimate, employing opinions and
inexact information. In subjective probability,
a person or group makes an educated guess at
the chance that an event will occur. This guess
is based on the person's experience and
evaluation of a solution. For example, a
sportswriter may say that there is a 70% EXAMPLE 2
probability that the Pirates will win the
Determine which events are mutually
pennant next year. A physician might say that,
exclusive and which are not when a single card
on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a 30%
is drawn from a deck.
chance the patient will need an operation. A
seismologist might say there is an 80% A. Getting a 7 and getting a jack
probability that an earthquake will occur in a
certain area. These are only a few examples of B. Getting a club and getting a king
how subjective probability is used in everyday C. Getting a face card and getting an ace
life. All three types of probability (classical,
empirical, and subjective) are used to solve a D. Getting a face card and getting a spade
variety of problems in business, engineering,
and other fields.

ADDITION AND MULTIPLICATION

RULE OF PROBABILITY
ADDITION RULE OF PROBABILITY
Rule 1. Probability of Mutually Exclusive
Events- two or more events are mutually
exclusive if the occurrence of one of them
excludes the probability of the others to
happen in the same trial. It refers to as the sum
of their separate probabilities.
EXAMPLE 3
• A box contains 3 glazed doughnuts, 4 jelly
doughnuts, and 5 chocolate doughnuts. If a
person selects a doughnut at random, find the
probability that it is either a glazed doughnut
or a chocolate doughnut.

P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B)
EXAMPLE 4
• Rule 2. Not Mutually Exclusive- events At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans,
occur together. 13 Democrats, and 6 Independents. If a person
P(A or B)= P(A)+ P(B)-P(A and B) is selected at random, find the probability that
he or she is either a Democrat or an
EXAMPLE 1 Independent.
Determine which events are mutually
exclusive and which are not, when a single die
is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even EXAMPLE 5
number
• A single card is drawn at random from an
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number ordinary deck of cards. Find the probability
c. Getting an odd number and getting a that it is either an ace or a black card.
number less than 4
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting
a number less than 4

MULTIPLICATION RULE OF
PROBABILITY
Multiplication Rules can be used to find the
probability of two or more events that occur in
sequence.
Multiplication Rule 1. Two events A and B are
independent events if the fact that A occurs
does not affect the probability of B occurring.
P (A and B) = P(A)•P(B)
Multiplication Rule 2. When the outcome or
occurrence of the first event affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second event in
such a way that the probability is changed, the
events are said to be dependent events.
P (A and B) = P (A) •P (B|A).
EXAMPLE 1
• A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a
4 on the die.
EXAMPLE 2
• A card is drawn from a deck and replaced;
then a second card is drawn. Find the
probability of getting a queen and then an ace.
EXAMPLE 3
Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck
and not replaced. Find the probability of these
events.
i) Getting 3 jacks.
ii) Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order.
iii) Getting a club, spade, and a heart in order.
iv) Getting 3 clubs
EXAMPLE 4
Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box
2 contains 3 blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is
tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected
and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2 is
selected and a ball is drawn. Find the
probability of selecting a red ball.
PROBABILITY OF THE
COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
Probability of the Complement of an Event If
E is an event and E' is the complement of the
event, then
P(E^{c})=1-P(E)
For example:
1. When a coin is tossed, getting 'head' and
getting 'tail' are complimentary event of each
other.
2. When two coins are tossed, getting 'atleast
one head' and getting 'no head' are
complimentary event of each other.
3. When a die is thrown:
• Getting 'even face' and 'odd face' are
complimentary event of each other.
• Getting 'multiple of 2' and getting 'not
multiple of 2' are complement event of the
latter event.
• Getting 'divisible by 3' and getting 'not
divisible by 3' are complement event of the
latter event.
EXAMPLE:
1. A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored
yellow, blue, green and red. What is the
probability of landing on a sector that is not
red after spinning this spinner?
2. A gum ball machine contains gum balls of
five different colors: 36 red, 44 white, 15 blue,
20 green, and 5 orange. The machine dispenser
randomly selects one gum ball. What is the
probability that the gum ball selected is:
a.) green?
b.) not green?
c.) not orange?
3. A pair of dice are rolled. What is the
probability of not rolling doubles?
4. In a cricket tournament KASALIGAN hits
eight times '6' out of thirty two balls. Calculate
the probability that he would not hit a 6?
5. In a laptop shop there are 16 defective
laptops out of 200 laptops. If one laptop is
taken out at random from this laptop shop,
what is the probability that it is a non defective
laptop?
PERMUTATIONS
Factorials are used extensively in mathematics.
Let k be a positive integer. Then the product of
the first k positive integers is called k factorial
and is denoted by the symbol k!.
Thus, k!=k k-1k-2....3.201
Note: 0!=1 and 1!=1
For example. 5!= 5-4-3-2-1=120
Every arrangement in order of a set of things is
called permutations. It refers to a set of objects
is any arrangement of the said objects in
definite order. Thus, the set of the letters m, s,
a, if we use all of them, can be arranged in the
following orders:
msa mas ams sma sam asm
PERMUTATIONS (CASES)
1. Permutations of Objects Taken all
Together (n!)
Ex. In how many specific ways can three
books, Statistics, Algebra and Biology, be
arranged on a shelf?
Ex. Determine the number of permutations of
the letters of the word SIMPLE if all are taken
at a time?
2. Permutations of n objects taken r at a
time.
nPr= n! /(n-r)!
a. How many 5-letter words can be formed
from the word FORMALITY?

b. How many four-letter permutations can be
formed from the letters in the word
"heptagon"?
c. A school musical director can select 2
musical plays to present next year. One will be
presented in the fall, and one will be presented
in the spring. If she has 9 to pick from, how
many different possibilities are there?
d. The advertising director for a television
show has 7 ads to use on the program. If she
selects 1 of them for the opening of the show,
1 for the middle of the show, and 1 for the
ending of the show, how many possible ways
can this be accomplished?
3. Permutation of n objects Not all
Distinct.
a. Ex. How many permutations can be made
with the word CONCOCTION?
b. Ex. In how many ways can you arrange the
letters of the word "PROBABILITY"?
c. Ex. In how many ways can you arrange the
letters of the word "STATISTICS"?
d. If a coin is tossed six times, how many
different outcomes consisting of 4 heads and 2
tails are there?
e. A stock broker wants to assign 20 new
clients equally to 4 of its salespeople. In how
many different ways can this be done?
f. A shopping mall has a straight row of 5
flagpoles at its main entrance plaza. It has 3
identical green flags and 2 identical yellow
flags. How many distinct arrangements of
flags on the flagpoles are possible?
4. Circular Permutations (n-1)!
Ex. In how many ways can eight guests be
seated in a round table?
COMBINATIONS
Combination refers to a selection of objects
with no attention given to their order of
arrangement. Thus, msa, mas, ams are all
combinations, although they are different
permutations.
 2. Combination in a series.
COMBINATIONS (CASES)

1. Combination of n objects taken r at a

time. a. Ex. In how many ways can a teacher assign
at most six of her students to do a project?

b. Ex. How many committees can be formed

Ex.1 In how many ways can a reader select 3 from 5 people, if the committees consist of 1,
books without regard to order from a set of 4 2, 3, 4 or 5 members
books?

3. Combination of n objects taken all at the

same time.

Ex.2 From a deck of 52 cards, in how many

ways can a hand of 13 cards be selected?

a. Ex. Evaluate 5C5.

Ex. 3. How many groups of 2 black cards and

4 red cards can be made from the 26 black
cards and 26 red cards in a deck of cards?
b. Ex. how many ways can seven members
form a committee of 7?

Ex. 4. Michael is sent to the store to get 5

different bottles of regular soda and 3 different
bottles of diet soda. If there are 10 different
types of regular soda, and 7 different types of
diet soda to choose from, how many different
choices does Michael have?

Ex. 5 In a small village, there are 87 families,

of which 52 families have at most 2 2 children.
In a rural development programme 20 families
are to be chosen for assistance, of which
atleast 18 families must have at most 2
children. In how many ways can the choice be
made?
 HYPERGEOMETRIC
DISTRIBUTION
 A set of N objects contains K objects
classified as successes and N-K
objects classified as failures. A sample
of size n objects is selected randomly
(without replacement) from the N
objects, where K≤ N and n≤ N.
 Let the random variables X denotes
the number of successes in the sample.
Then X is a hypergeometric random
variable and
 The expression {K, n} is used in the
definition of the range of X because
the maximum number of successes
that can occur in the sample is the
smaller of the sample size, n, and the
number of successes available, K.
 Also, if n+K>N, at least n+K-N
successes must occur in the sample. It
should I be noted that the equation (6)
= bl(a-b)! is the number of a parts
taken b at a time. The hypergeometric
distribution is the appropriate
possibility model for sampling without
replacement.
MEAN AND VARIANCE OF A
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
If X is a hypergeometric random variable with
parameters N, K, and n, then the mean and the
variance
Here, p is interpreted as the proportion of
successes in the set of N objects. For a
hypergeometric random variable, E(X) is
similar to the mean of a binomial random
variable. Also, V(X) differs from the result for
a binomial random variable only by the term
shown below:
The term in the variance of a
hypergeoemetric random variable N-
n/N-1 is called the finite population
correlation factor.
EXAMPLES
1. Given that X has a hypergeoemetric
distribution with N=100, n=4 and K=20.
Determine the following:
a. P(X=1)
b. P(X=6)
c. P(X=4)
d. the mean and variance of X.
2. A lot of 75 gaskets contains five in which
the variability in thickness around the
circumference of the gasket is unacceptable. A
sample of 10 gaskets is selected is selected at
random, without replacement. What is the
probability that
a. none of the unacceptable gaskets is in the
sample
b. at least one unacceptable gasket is in the
sample
c. exactly one unacceptable gasket is in the
sample d. the mean number of unacceptable
gaskets in the sample
3. Of 50 manufactured steel rods in a
production process by a company, 12 have
defects. If 10 steel rods are selected at random
for inspection.
a. find the probability that exactly 3 of the 10
have defects
b. find the mean and variance of X.
THE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
The binomial distribution is an example of a
particular type of discrete probability
distribution. It may be referred to as a
Bernoulli distribution, and the trials conducted
are known as Bernoulli trials. They were
named in honour of the Swiss mathematician
Jacob Bernoulli (1654-1705).
Bernoulli trials and sequences
A Bernoulli trial is an experiment in which the
outcome is either a success or a failure. A
Bernoulli sequence is a sequence of
Bernoulli trials in which:
1. the probability of each possible outcome is
independent of the results of the previous trial;
and
2. the probability of each possible outcome is
the same for each trial.
Note: In a Bernoulli sequence, the number of
successes follows the binomial distribution.
The procedure for determining the individual
probabilities can become tedious, particularly
once the number of trials increases. Hence if X
is a binomial random variable, its probability
is defined as follows. Pr(X=x)= nCxpxqn-x
where x= 0, 1, 2, ... n. That is: x= the
occurrence of the successful outcome.
Pr(X=x)= nCxp* (1-p)"-x where x= 0, 1, 2, ...
n. Here, the probability of failure, q, is
replaced by 1-p.
The probability of an event succeeding at least
r times in n trials.
The probability P, of an event succeeding
exactly r times in n trials is given by
The probability of an event succeeding at least
r' times in n trials is given by
Mean and Standard Deviation of
Binomial Distribution
If p is the proportion of successes in the
population, then the mean number of successes
in n trials is u = пр
The standard deviation for a binomial
frequency distribution is σ = √npq or √np(1 –
p) q is not independent but is equal to (1-p).
The binomial distribution can be expressed in
the terms of two parameters, n and p.
Summarizing, if X is a binomial random
variable with parameters p and n, then the
mean, u = Σ (X) σ² = V(X) = np(1 – p) = np
and the variance
EXAMPLES
Problem 1
Let X denotes the number of mechanical
components that are defective in a testing
process and assume that X is a binomial
random variable with p = 0.001 . If 1000 of
these components are tested, find the
following:
a. P(X = 1)
b. P(X >= 1)
c. P(X <= 2)
d. Mean and Variance of X.
Problem 2
1. A professional basketball player makes 80%
of the free throws he tries. Assuming this
percentage will hold true for future attempts,
find the probability that in the next eight tries
the number of free throws he will make is
a. exactly 8
b. exactly 5.
Problem 3
1. According to a particular survey, the
probability is 0.40 that a traffic fatality
involves an intoxicated or alcohol-impaired or
non-occupant. In 8 traffic fatalities, find the
probability that the number, A, which involve
an intoxicated or alcohol-impaired driver or
non-occupant is
a. exactly 3; at least 3; at most 3
b. between 2 and 4, inclusive
c. find and interpret the mean of the random
variable A.
d. obtain the standard deviation of A.
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The Poisson distribution, named after the
French mathematician Simeon D. Poisson in
1837 is another important probability
distribution of a discrete random variable that
has many applications. The Poisson
distributions is applied to experiments with
random and independent occurrences.
• Given an interval of real numbers, assume
events occur at random throughout the
interval. If the interval can be partitioned into
subintervals of small enough length such that
1. the probability of more than one event in an
subinterval is zero.
2. the probability of one event in a subinterval
is the same for all subinterval and proportional
to the length of the subinterval, and
3. the event in each subinterval is independent
of other subintervals, the random experiment
is called a Poissson process.
CONDITIONS TO APPLY POISSON
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
1. x is discrete random variable
2. the occurrences are random
3. the occurrences are independent
SOME OF THE PHENOMENA THAT
FOLLOW THE POISSON
DISTRIBUTION ARE:
1. counts of flaws in castings
2. the number of vehicles on a highway
3. the number of costumers visiting a bank
4. the number of accidents that occur on a
given highway during a period of time
5. the number of telephone calls
6. counts of power outages
7. counts of atomic particles emitted from a
specimen
POISSON DISTRIBUTION FORMULA
Poisson distribution Formula
Where :
e is the constant 2.7183 used in connection PROBLEM 3
with natural logarithm (the Greek letter lamda)
is the average (mean) of the distribution x is • The frequency table of the goals scored by a
the specific value in which we are interested football player in each of his first 35 matches
of the seasons is shown below
If x is a Poisson random variable with
parameter A, then the mean
μ = E(X) = λ, and
the variance
Assuming that the goals scored may be
σ² = V(X) = λ²
approximated by a Poisson distribution, find
EXAMPLES the probability that the player scores

PROBLEM 1 a) one goal in a given match

b) at least one goal in a given match
• Surveys found that 1.5% of occupied units
have 7 or more people living within. Use the
Poisson distribution to determine the
approximate probability that, of 200 randomly
selected occupied housing units, there are
a. none with 7 or more persons
b. 3 or more with 7 or more persons

THE MULTINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION

A multinomial distribution is the probability

distribution of the outcomes from a
multinomial experiment.

MULTINOMIAL EXPERIMENT

A multinomial experiment is a statistical

PROBLEM 2
A person receives on average 3 e-mails per
hour.
a) What is the probability that he will receive 5
e-mails over a period two hours?
a) What is the probability that he will receive
more than 2 e-mails over a period two hours?
experiment that has the following properties:
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
2. Each trial has a discrete number of possible
outcomes.
3. On any given trial, the probability that a
particular outcome will occur is constant.
4. The trials are independent; that is, the
outcome on one trial does not affect the
outcome on other trials.
Consider the following statistical experiment.
You toss two dice three times, and record the
outcome on each toss. This is a multinomial
experiment because:
The experiment consists of repeated trials. We Problem 2
toss the dice three times. Each trial can result A small airport coffee shop manager found that
in a discrete number of outcomes - 2 through the probabilities a customer buys 0, 1, 2, or 3
12. cups of coffee are 0.3, 0.5, 0.15, and 0.05,
The probability of any outcome is constant; it respectively. If 8 customers enter the shop,
does not change from one toss to the next. find the probability that 2 will purchase
something other than coffee, 4 will purchase 1
The trials are independent; that is, getting a cup of coffee, 1 will purchase 2 cups, and 1
particular outcome on one trial does not affect will purchase 3 cups.
the outcome on other trials.
Note: A binomial experiment is a special case
of a multinomial experiment. Here is the main
difference. With a binomial experiment, each
trial can result in two and only two possible
outcomes. With a multinomial experiment,
each trial can have two or more possible Problem 3
outcomes.
A box contains 4 white balls, 3 red balls, and 3
blue balls. A ball is selected at random, and its
Berman H.B., "Multinomial Distribution" color is written down. It is replaced each time.
Find the probability that if 5 balls are selected,
THE MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 2 are white, 2 are red, and 1 is blue.
FORMULA

Problem 4

Note: Again, note that the multinomial
distribution can be used even though
replacement is not done, provided that the
sample is small in comparison with the
population
Suppose a card is drawn randomly from an
ordinary deck of playing cards, and then put
back in the deck. This exercise is repeated five
times. What is the probability of drawing 1
spade, 1 heart, 1 diamond, and 2 clubs?

EXAMPLES
Problem 1
In a large city, 50% of the people choose a
movie, 30% choose dinner and a play, and
20% choose shopping as a leisure activity. If a
sample of 5 people is randomly selected, find Problem 5
the probability that 3 are planning to go to a
movie, 1 to a play, and 1 to a shopping mall. Suppose we have a bowl with 10 marbles - 2
red marbles, 3 green marbles, and 5 blue
marbles. We randomly select 4 marbles from
the bowl, with replacement. What is the
probability of selecting 2 green marbles and 2
blue marbles?