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Safety and Reliability Modeling and Its Applications Advances in Reliability Science 1St Edition Mangey Ram Editor Full Download Chapter
Safety and Reliability Modeling and Its Applications Advances in Reliability Science 1St Edition Mangey Ram Editor Full Download Chapter
Series Editor: Mangey Ram, Professor at Graphic Era University, Dehradun, India
Edited by
Mangey Ram
Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun, India
Hoang Pham
Rutgers University, New Jersey, United States
Elsevier
Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
Preface xi
Acknowledgement xiii
About the Editors xv
List of Contributors xvii
Appendix 277
References 280
Index 409
Preface
The editors acknowledge Elsevier and the editorial team for their adequate
and professional support during the preparation of this book. Also, we would like
to acknowledge all the chapter authors and the reviewers for their availability to
work on this book project.
Mangey Ram
Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), India
Hoang Pham
Rutgers University, USA
About the Editors
Prof. Dr. Mangey Ram received the Ph.D. degree major in Mathematics and
minor in Computer Science from G. B. Pant University of Agriculture and Tech-
nology, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand, India. He has been a faculty member for around
twelve years and has taught several core courses in pure and applied mathe-
matics at undergraduate, postgraduate, and doctorate levels. He is currently the
Research Professor at Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun, India.
Before joining the Graphic Era, he was a deputy manager (probationary officer)
with Syndicate Bank for a short period. He is the editor-in-chief of International
Journal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences, Journal of
Reliability and Statistical Studies; the editor-in-chief of six Book Series with
Elsevier, CRC Press-A Taylor and Francis Group, Walter De Gruyter Publisher
Germany, River Publisher; and the guest editor and member of the editorial
board of various journals. He has published more than 250 research publications
(journal articles/books/book chapters/conference articles) in IEEE, Taylor &
Francis, Springer, Elsevier, Emerald, World Scientific, and many other national
and international journals and conferences. Also, he has authored/edited more
than 50 books for international publishers such as Elsevier, Springer Nature,
CRC Press-A Taylor and Francis Group, Walter De Gruyter Publisher Germany,
and River Publisher. His fields of research are reliability theory and applied
mathematics. Dr. Ram is a Senior Member of the IEEE, Senior Life Member
of Operational Research Society of India; Society for Reliability Engineering,
Quality and Operations Management in India; Indian Society of Industrial and
Applied Mathematics. He has been a member of the organizing committee of
a number of international and national conferences, seminars, and workshops.
He has been conferred with “Young Scientist Award” by the Uttarakhand State
Council for Science and Technology, Dehradun, in 2009. He has been awarded
the “Best Faculty Award” in 2011, “Research Excellence Award” in 2015, and
“Outstanding Researcher Award” in 2018 for his significant contributions in
academics and research at Graphic Era Deemed to be University, Dehradun,
India.
Specialist with the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and Boeing Com-
pany. He received his Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from the State University
of New York at Buffalo. His research areas include reliability modeling of
systems with competing risks and random environments, software reliability,
and statistical inference. He is the editor-in-chief of the International Journal of
Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering and an associate editor and editorial
board member of several journals, and the editor of Springer Series in Reliability
Engineering. His numerous awards include the 2009 IEEE Reliability Society
Engineer of the Year Award. Dr. Pham is the author/coauthor of 7 books and
has published his work in over 190 journal articles, 100 conference papers,
and edited 18 books including Springer Handbook in Engineering Statistics and
Handbook in Reliability Engineering. He has delivered over 40 invited keynote
and plenary speeches at many international conferences and institutions. He is a
Fellow of the IEEE and IIE.
List of Contributors
1.1 Preamble
The development of infrastructure, in particular the transportation sector, plays
a significant role in the economic growth of any country. The economic growth
demands a good road network with good connectivity all over the country.
With the reduced availability of funds, the highway agencies are placing more
emphasis on the design and construction of pavements that require minimum
maintenance during the service life. For this, it is necessary that pavements
should be designed such that a minimum design reliability (as specified in the
country’s national specifications) is achieved and the pavement construction
should be done with the latest machinery and under stringent quality control
requirements.
In India, majority of the roads (more than 90 %) are asphalt pavements,
popularly known as flexible pavements. This is due to their low construction
cost (in comparison to cement concrete/rigid pavements), ease of maintenance,
and relatively easier construction procedure. To ensure that the pavement has
adequate strength to cater to the expected traffic, it has to be designed properly
in accordance with the national specifications. For example, IRC:37 (2018) is
followed for the design of flexible pavements in India. A flexible pavement
is a multilayer structure consisting of many layers of materials starting from
subgrade at the bottom to bituminous wearing course at the top. A typical three
layer pavement structure is presented in Fig. 1.1.
The structural design of pavements deals with determining the thicknesses
of the various component layers keeping in consideration the material prop-
erties and the amount of traffic which is expected during the design life. The
current India pavement design procedure (IRC:37, 2018) is a deterministic one
wherein the various input variables like layer thicknesses, Poisson’s ratio, elastic
Safety and Reliability Modeling and Its Applications. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-823323-8.00009-X
Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1
2 Safety and reliability modeling and its applications
FIG. 1.1 A typical three layer pavement structure (Dilip et al., 2013)
modulus, and design traffic are all considered as fixed. However, in reality none
of them are deterministic; they all are stochastic (probabilistic). So, in order
to develop reliable pavement designs, the uncertainty/variability of the input
variables need to be considered in the design process. This can be addressed
through the use of reliability concepts within the pavement design process. The
details of the reliability concepts and its applications to the pavement design
process, specifically in the context of flexible pavements, are discussed in the
following sections.
Where,
t = the designated period of time or cycles for the system’s operation
T = time to failure or cycle to failure
R = reliability of the system
c1 , c2 ,…. = designated conditions, such as environmental conditions
Often, in practice, the designated operating conditions for a system c1 , c2 ,
….. are implicitly considered in the probabilistic reliability analysis and thus (1)
reduces to
R = P(T ≥ t ) (1.2)
Reliability analysis of asphalt pavements: concepts and applications Chapter | 1 3
So, R = 1 − Pf (1.3)
Where, X is the vector of basic random variables, g(X) is the limit state (or
failure) function for the failure mode considered and fX (x) is the joint probability
density function of the vector X. The expression g(X) < 0 indicates a failure
domain; g(X) > 0 indicates safe domain and g(X) = 0 denotes a failure surface.
Therefore, estimation of reliability requires the solution of a multidimen-
sional integral that can rarely be solved analytically. For this reason, other
methods such as numerical integration become essential. This might not be
practically feasible in probabilistic analysis because of the multi - dimensional
nature of the problem wherein a dimension is associated for each basic variable,
and the area of interest is usually in the tails of the distributions (Cronvall, 2011).
The uncertainty from all the sources which may affect that failure of the
component (or system) should be considered for a rigorous structural reliability
assessment.
This clearly involves taking into account all fundamental quantities entering
the problem, and also the uncertainties that arise from lack of knowledge
and idealized modeling. The structural reliability procedure is outlined by the
following steps (Cronvall, 2011):
(a) Identify all significant modes of failure of the structure or operation under
consideration, and define failure events.
(b) Formulate a failure criterion or failure function for each failure event.
(c) Identify the sources of uncertainty influencing the failure of the events,
model the basic variables and parameters in the failure functions and
specify their probability distributions.
(d) Calculate the probability of failure or reliability for each failure event,
and combine these probabilities where necessary to evaluate the failure
probability or reliability of the structural system.
(e) Consider the sensitivity of the reliability results to the input, such as basic
variables and parameters.
(f ) Assess whether the evaluated reliability is sufficient in comparison with a
target.
4 Safety and reliability modeling and its applications
(a) Level I methods : Reliability methods that employ only one ‘characteris-
tic’ value of each uncertain parameter are called level I methods. Examples
include load and resistance factor formats, including the allowable stress
formats.
(b) Level II methods : Reliability methods that employ two values of each
uncertain parameter (commonly mean and variance), supplemented with
a measure of the correlation between the parameters (usually covariance),
are called level II methods. Reliability index methods are examples of level
II methods.
(c) Level III methods : Reliability methods that employ probability of failure
as a measure, and which therefore require a knowledge of the joint distri-
bution of all uncertain parameters, are called level III methods.
(d) Level IV methods : Reliability method that compares a structural prospect
with a reference prospect according to the principles of engineering eco-
nomic analysis under uncertainty, considering costs and benefits, of con-
struction, maintenance, repair, consequences of failure, interest on capital,
etc., is called a level IV method. Such design methods are still in the process
of development.
Lemer and Moavenzadeh (1971) developed one of the first models dealing
with reliability of pavements. They pointed out that the factors affecting the
degree of variation in pavement system parameters have a significant effect on
system reliability.
The limit state function for the pavement reliability problem can be written
as:
D = log NF − log NA (1.5)
Where, NF = allowable number of axle load applications to failure
NA = number of actual axle load applications
The condition of the pavement is considered to have deteriorated below
acceptable limits when NA exceeds NF , or equivalently, D < 0. Assuming
lognormal distributions for NF and NA , the probability of failure is obtainable as
PF = φ(–β C ), where φ(.) is the cumulative distribution function of the standard
normal random variable and β C = E(D)/σ (D) is the reliability index, in which
E(D) and σ (D) are the mean and standard deviation of D (Darter and Hudson,
1973).
In the simulation model proposed by Alsherri and George (1988) for relia-
bility evaluation of pavements, the following equation based on present service-
ability index was used:
R = P p f ≥ pt (1.6)
where, pf = present serviceability index at time t, and pt = limiting (terminal)
serviceability index, generally set at 2.5 for AASHTO’s design and 3.0 for
premium design.
The following expression was used to estimate reliability under the assump-
tion that both pf and pt are normally distributed:
⎡ ⎤
⎢ μ p f − μ pt ⎥
R = ⎣ 1/2 ⎦
= (z0 ) (1.7)
σ p f + σ pt
2 2
where,
φ = standard normal distribution
μpf = mean value of pf
μpt = mean value of pt
σ pf = standard deviations of pf
σ pt = standard deviations of pt
z0 = standard normal deviate
In the AASHTO (1993) guide for the design of pavement structures, the
overall standard deviation of variation was considered by including the errors
in traffic predictions and in pavement performance prediction to analyze risk
6 Safety and reliability modeling and its applications
and reliability in the design and reliability design factor was determined. The
reliability of design was defined as:
The following equation for the reliability design factor (FR ) was derived:
(COV. ADT∗ Dd )2 + (COV.P)2 + (COV.Ld )2 + (COV.TF)2
2
SW =
5.3
(1.11)
Where ADT∗ Dd represents average daily traffic in a heavier direction; P is the
percentage of trucks in the traffic mix; Ld is the lane distribution; TF is the truck
factor (number of ESALs per truck). The growth factor and the design period
were assumed to be constants.
Using AASHTO’s flexible pavement performance prediction model, the
variance of the pavement performance prediction S2N may be obtained as
(Noureldin et al., 1994) :
2 2 2
SN2 = COV(MR) + P2 SN .COV(SN) (1.12)
P2 = variance component of SN
To determine the COV(SN), the variance of SN was estimated in the following
way :
Var(SN) ∼
= ā21 Var(D1 ) + D̄21 Var(a1 ) + ā22 m̄22 Var(D2 ) + ā22 Var(m2 )D̄22
+ Var(a2 )m̄22 D̄22 + ā23 m̄23 Var(D3 ) + ā23 Var(m3 )D̄23 + Var(a3 )m̄23 D̄23
(1.13)
Kulkarni (1994) chose traffic as a design element for evaluating the reliability
of alternate pavement designs with different types of pavements. The reliability
Reliability analysis of asphalt pavements: concepts and applications Chapter | 1 7
design procedures. The reliability indices for the pavement sections determined
by both methods were computed using the first order reliability method (FORM).
It was indicated that the RBD procedure does successfully yield cross-sections
whose reliability indices are close to the target reliability index, while the
AASHTO method does not generally produce designs of uniform reliability for
actual mechanistic failure criterion.
To incorporate reliability in pavement design, Austroads used the laboratory
fatigue relationship published by Shell Petroleum (Shell, 1978), which was
further modified to include a reliability factor (RF) corresponding to the desired
project reliability.
5
6918(0.856VB + 1.08
N = RF (1.17)
mix με
S0.36
till the fatigue cracking of bituminous surface or rutting in the pavement reaches
its terminal values, whichever happens earlier.
The general form of these fatigue and rutting models is given below:
Fatigue Model
k2
1 1 k3
N f = k1 × C × × (26)
εt MR
C = 10M (27)
Vbe
M = 4.84 × − 0.69 (28)
Vbe + Va
Rutting Model
k5
1
Nr = k4 × (29)
εv
Where,
Nf = fatigue life of bituminous layer in terms of cumulative repetitions of
equivalent 80 kN standard axle load
Nr = subgrade rutting life in terms of cumulative repetitions of equivalent 80
kN standard axle load
εt = maximum horizontal tensile strain at the bottom of bituminous layer
εz = maximum vertical compressive strain at the top of the subgrade
MR = resilient modulus of the bituminous layer (MPa)
Vbe = percent volume of effective bitumen in the mix used in the bituminous
layer (varies between 3.5 to 4.5 percent)
Va = percent volume of air voids in the mix used in the bituminous layer
(varies between 10.5 to 11.5 percent)
ki = regression coefficients (i = 1 to 5)
The values of these regression coefficients are given as : k1 = 1.6064 × 10−4
and 0.5161 × 10−4 for design traffic ≥ 20 msa and < 20 msa respectively;
k2 = 3.89; k3 = 0.854; k4 = 4.1656 × 10−8 and 1.41 × 10−8 for design traffic
≥ 20 msa and < 20 msa respectively; and k5 = 4.5337.
These fatigue and rutting transfer functions were developed and calibrated
during the database collected through R-6 and R-19 research studies sponsored
by MORTH. A total of around 120 numbers of bituminous concrete (BC) and 160
numbers of bituminous macadam (BM) road sections from R-6 and R-19 studies
were considered for development of fatigue criterion and 86 number of BC road
sections from R-6 study were analyzed for the development of rutting criterion.
These pavement sections consisted of bituminous surfacing with granular bases
and subbases and they were assumed as three layered structure. The average
annual pavement temperature (AAPT) of all the sections were around 35°C
and the bitumen of 80/100 penetration grade was used for both BC and BM
surfacing. The maximum repetitions of equivalent single-axle load for the road
sections were 50 msa only. The thickness of BC layer was 40 mm on most of
the sections and BM was used as the bituminous binder course, just below the
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Title: Angelinette
Language: French
ANGELINETTE
PARIS
LES ÉDITIONS G. CRÈS ET Cie
21, RUE HAUTEFEUILLE, 21
MCMXXIII
IL A ÉTÉ TIRÉ DE CET OUVRAGE :
25 exemplaires sur verge pur fil Lafuma
(dont 5 hors commerce)
numérotés de 1 à 20 et de 21 à 25
C’est le soir que les femmes mâles se réveillent, que leurs yeux
brillent, leur être frémit, et alors, comme des louves, que ce soit dans
le monde, dans le lupanar, à l’atelier ou à l’hôpital, elles sortent en
maraude, sont tour à tour agressives ou câlines, souffrent et
jouissent. Angelinette, vers le soir, pouvait toujours compter sur la
visite de deux ou trois de ces louves enfiévrées.