Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nick King
Aled Jones
Future Energy Options from a Systems Perspective
Nick King · Aled Jones
Future Energy
Options
from a Systems
Perspective
Nick King Aled Jones
Global Sustainability Institute Global Sustainability Institute
Anglia Ruskin University Anglia Ruskin University
Cambridge, UK Cambridge, UK
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
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1 Introduction 1
Energy as a Critical Phenomenon 2
Phases of Human Energy Use Through Time 3
References 25
2 The Trifurcation of Energy Futures 33
The Fossil-Seneca Branch 34
The Continued Growth Branch 48
The Stabilisation Branch 64
References 80
3 Conclusions 99
Fossil Fuel Systemic Inertia 102
Longer Term Perspectives 105
References 106
Index 109
vii
List of Figures
ix
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
Taming of Fire
The emergence of exosomatic energy1 generation and use occurred prior
to the evolution of anatomically modern humans, approximately one and
a half million years ago. Global climatic changes (a general global cooling
trend likely linked to changing atmospheric CO2 levels) starting in the
late Miocene (approximately five–seven million years ago) gave rise to
generally rising aridity and seasonality, resulting in global changes to
terrestrial ecosystems. In tropical East Africa, ecosystem changes mani-
fested as a transition of the predominant vegetation cover from dense
moist tropical forest to drier, more open savannah [10]. This transition
resulted in changes to animal biota, and for tree-dwelling ape species in
the region, this became a key factor in the evolution of more preferentially
ground-dwelling hominids. In parallel, this drier environment experi-
enced a greater prevalence of natural (primarily lightning-instigated) fires,
which inevitably led hominid encounters with these natural fires on a
more frequent basis. This likely led to a process of increasingly direct
interaction and use, and eventually the capability to start fires inde-
pendently and artificially (using deliberately-collected biomass, primarily
wood, and culturally-transmitted techniques). The growing prevalence of
the phenomenon from approximately one and a half million years ago is
evidenced through widespread archaeological evidence of burning asso-
ciated with hominid sites, and from approximately 400 to 700 thousand
years ago, the appearance of hearths indicating increasingly refined use of
fire.
Control of (biomass-fuelled) fire (‘pyrotechnology’) is likely to have
had a significant influence on the evolution of modern humans through
factors such as reduced mortality by predation, increased general activity
through ‘daylight extension’, and greater access to nutrients from the
cooking of food (which functions as a form of ‘pre-digestion’), all of
which may have contributed to the evolution of larger brains and subse-
quent phenomena such as language and increased sociality. The enhancing
feedbacks of fire’s benefits and widening use likely led to human society
re-organising over time to make this type of energy use a central and
permanent aspect of daily life, and which laid the foundation for later,
larger scale and more sophisticated applications of fire (such as land
clearing and metalworking) [11, 12].
Great Britain was endowed with large reserves of high quality (i.e.,
high carbon and energy content) coal, with several large and rela-
tively accessible (near-surface) coalfields distributed across the island. This
endowment of resources, combined with growing demand from the inno-
vation of coal-fired, steam-driven machinery (primarily for applications
including mechanical production of commodities and for sea and land
transport), set in motion enhancing feedbacks. These included widening
applications (larger and improved steam engines), increasing coal mining
activity (opening of new coalfields and mines), expanding infrastruc-
ture (canals and railways to transport coal), technological innovations
(groundwater pumps to open up previously inaccessible reserves) and a
shifting cultural setting (migration to urban areas) which drove steadily
increasing penetration of coal use into society at large over the course
of several decades. This process culminated with an acceleration, expan-
sion and embedding of these technological and social trends during the
approximate period 1750–1800, which marked the start of the Industrial
Revolution. These industrial applications, along with others such as coal
gasification which expanded rapidly for urban lighting and heating appli-
cations, rapidly spread to other parts of the world where coal resources
were also abundant (e.g., Germany and the USA) or could be accessed
through importation.
The second ‘stage’ in the flourishing of fossil fuel use started in
Pennsylvania in the northeastern US, where exploratory drilling was
undertaken during the late 1850s to assess whether ‘rock’ (or ‘mineral’)
oil known to be present in the subsurface could be practically extracted.
These near surface reservoirs had previously been known about due to
abundant natural ground seepages, but the wider context was the strong
incentive to find a practical replacement to whale oil, the supply of which
was increasingly subject to the effects of depletion. Successful drilling of
wells led to the development of the world’s first full-scale oilfield during
the 1850–1860s, and different fractions of the ‘rock’ oil obtained were
successful in replacing whale oil (for lighting). However, it was several
subsequent technological innovations (primarily in the form of the inven-
tion of the Otto and Diesel cycle internal combustion engines) which set
in motion enhancing feedbacks (equivalent to those that drove the earlier
flourishing of coal use) which led thereafter to a continuous, decades-
long global spread and scaling of oil extraction and use which accelerated
at the major inflection points of the World Wars [25]. In contemporary
timeframes oil (primarily diesel) fuel underpins global-spanning (road, rail
10 N. KING AND A. JONES
and sea-based) logistical and supply chains which now move a greater
tonnage of material annually than natural processes (e.g., erosion and
fluvial transport) [26, 27].
Natural gas emerged during the twentieth century as the third ‘stage’
of the flourishing of fossil fuel. Natural gas forms from the ‘cracking’ of
long-chain hydrocarbon molecules by lithospheric heat and pressure and
is therefore closely associated with crude oil. In the early stages of oil
extraction natural gas was primary vented or flared, but from approx-
imately 1900 an increasing proportion was captured for use, initially
to displace gasified coal for lighting, but later for an expanding range
of uses. A significant application which emerged from approximately
the mid-twentieth century onwards was as the main energetic feed-
stock underpinning the industrial-scale use of Haber–Bosch process (for
synthetic fertiliser production), which drove a sustained global agricul-
tural intensification in the late twentieth century [28]), which in turn
underpinned exponential human population growth (at which point fossil
energy became a key input to the generation of human biomass). Natural
gas also became a widespread source of industrial heat (e.g., for cement
manufacturing and metallurgy) from the late twentieth century onwards,
alongside a number of additional, primarily domestic applications (for
space and water heating, cooking etc.) which emerged in densely popu-
lated regions where urban gas distribution networks were economical to
build and operate.
A major technological innovation which emerged in the late nineteenth
century and subsequently drove a large proportion of fossil fuel consump-
tion through the twentieth and into the early twenty-first centuries was
electrification; fossil-fired thermal generation of electrical power has been
the consistent and universal user of all three major forms of fossil fuel
(though in contemporary timeframes coal and natural gas have emerged
as the dominant fuels for power generation, and oil for most modes of
transport). The range of hitherto impossible applications and technolo-
gies which conversion of fossil chemical energy to electrical power enabled
was vast, and the efficiency and flexibility gains which all forms of elec-
trical technology enabled in industrial and domestic settings provided the
basis for whole new paradigms in the consumption and use of fossil fuels
[29].
1 INTRODUCTION 11
2 Fossil fuels also provide the material substrate for commodities vital to the functioning
of modern civilisation such as plastics, pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals, but are omitted
from consideration due to these comprising non-energy uses.
12 N. KING AND A. JONES
3 Tidal and wave energy are not considered further due to their slow growth in capacity
and current minor contribution to global energy supplies.
1 INTRODUCTION 13
The second of these energy sources, nuclear power, utilises the energy
stored within heavy nuclei (actinides), which is released via artificially
induced and controlled nuclear reactions. Due to the advanced scien-
tific understanding that underpins its exploitation, and the complexity
and high-technology systems and materials required to enable it, it is a
purely modern technology. Nuclear science developed through a succes-
sion of theoretical and experimental advances in the late nineteenth and
early twentieth centuries; the latter of these coincided with the start of
World War II (WWII) which provided an incentive to pursue the poten-
tial of nuclear energy (primarily for weapons, initially), and drove the
development, testing and deployment of many key early technologies.
Following the use of nuclear weapons and the conclusion of WWII,
the (peaceful) potential for this technology to provide a new source of
energy was explored, though the military aspect remained with many of
the wide range of reactor designs explored in these early stages having a
dual energy and weapons material production function, whilst others were
tailored to naval propulsion. Key technologies were later released from
national government control and commercialised, which led to a globally
distributed fleet of reactors being constructed in the following decades.
This dual use (military and civilian) meant the initially high costs of
nuclear technology could be cross subsidised between defence and energy
government budgets. The Light Water Reactor (LWR) type emerged
as the numerically dominant technology with the largest total installed
capacity globally; the approximate period 1950–1980 saw the most
intense phase of growth in global nuclear capacity, which was followed
by a period of stagnation (due to a range of factors including major acci-
dents and changing economic conditions), followed by a limited (relative
to the initial growth phase) ‘nuclear renaissance’ after approximately 2000
[36].
widespread (e.g., for ploughing, and moving heavy loads over long
distances, including the materials required to construct energy-harvesting
infrastructure such as waterwheels). The pioneering of fossil fuel use
and the subsequent Industrial Revolution is described as revolutionary
because energy use started to dramatically increase in terms of total
amount, along with the range of applications.
The energy sources which had been harnessed subsequent to the
pioneering of fire and pyrotechnology were not combustion-based (i.e.,
flowing water), but the use of fossil fuels reversed this trend in that it
represented a return to, and then dramatic spread in the prevalence and
use of direct combustion. The nature of the fire used in this context was
different to that used previously in that it was based on fossil carbon
(which has a higher energy density than biomass, and is found in concen-
trated reservoirs such as coal seams) and was also utilised in much more
controlled manner (i.e., with burning taking place within the combus-
tion chambers of machinery rather than primarily in open hearths) but
was nonetheless a return to a combustion-dominated energy paradigm. In
the early stages of the Industrial Revolution previously key energy sources
such as animal-based power remained in widespread use, but were increas-
ingly (though never totally, even in the twenty-first century) displaced by
fossil-fuelled processes and machinery.
The stocks (primarily in accessible biomass) and environmental flows
(which were accessible through early technologies) available to pre-
modern societies had an overall magnitude which constrained their overall
societal size and growth rate. The large stock of energy provided by
accessing the global reservoirs of fossil fuel energy changed that paradigm,
and consequently has been the primary driver underpinning a recent
phenomenon labelled as the ‘Great Acceleration’ (a ‘sub-phenomenon’ of
the wider ‘Anthropocene’ Epoch) [40]. This is defined by energy use,
along with virtually every other measure of human activity (including,
but not limited to, overall human population; use of water, minerals and
materials; and economic growth as measured by gross domestic produc-
tion (GDP); and financial activity) having increased dramatically in the
mid-twentieth century (after WWII), taking on near-exponential char-
acteristics in recent decades. This required the dramatic increase in the
extraction and consumption (total quantity and rate of use) of fossil fuels,
and also the addition of energy from new sources (namely renewables and
nuclear) [38].
1 INTRODUCTION 17
These new energy sources were also enabled by fossil fuels; the societal
complexity which underpinned the population base and education systems
which led to scientific innovations, along with the financing necessary
for the development of renewable and nuclear energy, are phenomena
resulting from fossil fuel use, as well as of course the direct use of
fossil energy to mine key resources, transport them and build renewable
and nuclear infrastructure. The industrial processes required to manufac-
ture high-tech and complex materials and components required for these
systems, were also largely constructed with and operated by fossil fuel
energy.
Whale oil represented one of the first instances of a fuel which had a
sufficiently high energy density to be conducive to transport over large
distances to specific end users. The oil itself was a highly specialised
product which could only be obtained, extracted and transported via
a highly complex system (consisting of highly specialised whaling ships
serviced by large-scale infrastructure), but this was emergent as a func-
tion of the high portability of the stable liquid product with a specialised
application (lighting) for which there were few practical or economic
substitutes.
Fossil fuels represented a new energy paradigm not only because of
their superlative energy content and (at the start of the Industrial Revo-
lution) abundance, they were also stable stores of energy which could
be used instantaneously as desired, and also offered a level of portability
which no other energy source (save whale oil; but this was much more
constrained in availability and application) had previously been able to
match (though the portability varied between the different forms of fossil
fuels). The combination of these factors combined to make the impact of
fossil fuels more potent than any previous paradigm. However, the highly
heterogenous global distribution of the deposits of these fuels became a
constraint which generated a range of highly complex dynamics in the
socio-political development and interaction of human societies.
As consumption of coal started to increase rapidly in the early stages
of the Industrial Revolution infrastructure (e.g., canals, railways, ports
for coastal shipping) suited to transporting large quantities of high-
mass material emerged in different countries globally (initially in Britain),
however the effectiveness of the modes of transport were constrained by
the solid and bulky nature of the material. Coal gasification was a partial
solution to making coal energy more amenable to distribution at local
scale (through distribution in urban pipe networks), but it was the fluid
nature of oil (combined with a greater energy density) which made its
use inherently more flexible. Oil (and later natural gas) could be trans-
ported and transferred at a range of scales using pumps, pipelines and
tanks, which made it amenable to integration into a wide range of indus-
trial and domestic uses, and therefore underpinned the emergence of oil
and gas as dominant (excepting some applications such as power gener-
ation for which bulk transport infrastructure for coal could be operated)
[41]. Importantly oil and coal also had sufficient energy density such that
they could be transported and used to power that transport which saw a
significant increase in the range and speed of industrial vehicles, initially
1 INTRODUCTION 19
through the steam engine and subsequently with the internal combustion
engine.
The distribution of fossil fuel reserves in the modern world are a
function of landscapes and biomes in remote geological timeframes. The
Middle Eastern petroleum systems formed on the shallow continental
shelf-margins of the Jurassic Era Tethys Sea, and much of the global
coal resource originated in tropical forests located in equatorial regions
of Carboniferous Era Pangea (which tectonic movements subsequently
redistributed) [42, 43]; these carbon deposits supplied much of the fossil
fuel energy which has driven industrialisation and the Great Accelera-
tion but from the anthropogenic perspective, were randomly spatially
distributed. One of the key outcomes of this was that nations and regions
endowed (by chance) with fossil fuel resources (or were able to obtain
them e.g., through having land or sea infrastructure to import energy
resources) had a distinct advantage in industrialising; this was a key factor
in the nations which achieved this early (e.g., Britain, USA, Germany).
Later, nations and regions with large reserves (particularly of oil) have
been able to leverage this to gain geopolitical influence or have been the
target of action (geopolitical and/or military) by others to gain access
to and control of such resources [44, 45]. In particular early adopters of
such technology and energy use (such as Britain) were able to use this to
their advantage and building on previous exploitation of energy sources—
notably slaves—conquered and colonised countries to gain access to
further resources.
Electrification (enabled by fossil fuel use and later supplemented
by renewables and nuclear) represents a further paradigm change in
that it has ‘smoothed’ out the influence of geography and porta-
bility. This is because any energy users connected to electricity grids
(though not locally-generated electricity) are effectively disconnected
from any concerns over portability, as electricity is available instanta-
neously without the requirements to transfer and process fuels and
materials, and geographical constraints to local resource availability is
reduced by the long-distance transmission of electrical power. Fuels and
energy flows still have to be accessed and converted to generate the
power, but these functions are largely centralised in many areas of the
world and are therefore largely not immediately apparent to the user.
Portability manifests as the requirement to generate high voltages and
minimise losses from transmission of the power (though again this is
largely ‘invisible’ from the users’ perspective). The spread of electrical
20 N. KING AND A. JONES
grids to a large proportion of the world in recent decades has made energy
(in a form which can be used for a large range of applications) available to
a large number of users for which geography had previously been a major
constraint [46].
4 The EROI concept can include significant complexity in the form of consideration
of the where the boundaries of energy systems are assumed to be (what level of energy
input are considered before energy is yielded to the final user) along with the efficiency
of energy conversions at different stages, the role of material embedded energy, etc. For
the purposes of this subsection, only the simplest description of EROI is considered.
1 INTRODUCTION 21
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath, whose tips are bearded, and just within the blossom; the leaves grow
by fours, the flowers mostly by threes, and are smooth, cylindrically club-
shaped, an inch long, and of a deep blood colour.
DESCRIPTION.
Stem shrubby, grows two feet high, and upright; the branches grow
upright, having many smaller branches, which are thick set, and very short.
The Leaves grow by fours, are linear, smooth, shining, and of a deep
green, having very short foot-stalks, pressed to the stem.
The Flowers terminate the shorter branches near the summit of the
stem, forming as it were a long bunch; the foot-stalks are long, having three
floral leaves at their base.
Empalement. Cup four-leaved, which are lance-shaped, sawed, and
pressed to the blossom.
The Blossom is cylindrically club-shaped, smooth, blood colour, and an
inch long; the segments of the mouth are obtuse, and straight.
Chives. Eight hair-like threads, fixed into the receptacle; the tips are
bearded, and just within the blossom.
Pointal. Seed-vessel nearly egg-shaped, furrowed, and downy; Shaft
without the blossom; Summit four-cornered.
Native of the Cape of Good Hope.
Flowers from August, till December.
REFERENCE.
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
1. Calyx, et Corolla.
2. Calyx lente auctus.
3. Stamina, et Pistillum.
4. Stamina a Pistillo diducta; anthera una lente aucta.
5. Stylus, et Stigma, lente aucta.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath, with tips two-horned at the base, nearly within the blossoms; shaft
very long; blossoms almost bell-shaped, and purple, having the segments of
the mouth spreading, very large, and egg-shaped; leaves growing mostly by
fours, and blunt ended.
DESCRIPTION.
REFERENCE.
1. The Empalement, and Blossom.
2. The Empalement magnified.
3. The Chives, and Pointal.
4. The Chives detached from the Pointal; one tip magnified.
5. The Shaft, and Summit, magnified.
ERICA curviflora.
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
1. Calyx, et Corolla.
2. Calyx, lente auctus.
3. Stamina, et Pistillum.
4. Stamina a Pistillo diducta; anthera una lente aucta.
5. Stylus, et Stigma, lente aucta.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath, with beardless tips, just without the blossoms, which are curved,
cylindrically club-shaped, downy, terminating the branches, and of a yellow
gold colour; the leaves grow by fours, are linear, and smooth.
DESCRIPTION.
Stem shrubby, grows two feet high, weak, and hairy at the top; branches
weak and numerous; the smaller branches are very short, numerous, and
scattered.
Leaves grow by fours, are linear, blunt, smooth, and furrowed
underneath.
Flowers terminate the smaller branches, spreading out, and forming a
long spike; foot-stalks very short, with three small leaves pressed to the cup.
Empalement. Cup four-leaved, which are awl-shaped, tapering, smooth,
and pressed to the blossom.
Blossom curved, club-shaped, an inch long, downy, and of a yellow gold
colour; the segments of the mouth spread outward.
Chives. Eight hair-like threads, which are curved, and the length of the
blossom. Tips beardless.
Pointal. Seed-bud club-shaped, and furrowed. Shaft thread-shaped,
curved, and without the blossom. Summit four-cornered.
Native of the Cape of Good Hope.
Flowers from July, till November.
REFERENCE.
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
1. Calyx, et Corolla.
2. Calyx lente auctus.
3. Stamina, et Pistillum.
4. Stamina a Pistillo diducta; anthera una lente aucta.
5. Stylus, et Stigma lente aucta.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath, with bearded tips within the blossom; the pointal standing out; the
blossom tubular, nearly cylindrical; leaves growing by threes.
DESCRIPTION.
REFERENCE.
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
1. Calyx et Corolla.
2. Calyx lente auctus.
3. Stamina et Pistillum.
4. Stamina a Pistillo diducta; antherâ unâ lente auctâ.
5. Stylus et Stigma lente aucta.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
Heath, with crested tips, within the blossom, which is big-bellied, oblique-
mouthed, and purple; the foot-stalks are coloured, and very long; leaves
grow alternate, scattered, blunt, and thick with shining glandular hairs.
DESCRIPTION.
Stem upright, about a span high; the larger and smaller branches are
thread-shaped, scattered, upright, spreading, and twiggy.
Leaves grow alternate, scattered, linear, blunt, the end bent back, and
thick with glandular hairs.
Flowers are terminal, nearly in bunches, almost upright; the foot-stalks
are thread-shaped, and twice as long as the leaves; the floral leaves are
small, and coloured.
Empalement. Cup four-leaved; leaves nearly egg-shaped, clammy,
pointed, coloured, and bent outward at the top.
Blossom big-bellied, purple, ribbed, and downy, with the mouth oblique,
narrowed, and of a deep blood colour; the segments are heart-shaped, and
spreading.
Chives. Eight hair-like threads, which are twisted, and fixed into the
receptacle; the tips are crested, and within the blossom.
Pointal. Seed-vessel club-shaped, and furrowed. Shaft thread-shaped,
and purple. Summit four-cornered.
Native of the Cape of Good Hope.
Flowers from the month of July till October.
REFERENCE.
1. The Empalement and Blossom.
2. The Empalement magnified.
3. The Chives and Pointal.
4. The Chives detached from the Pointal; one tip magnified.
5. The Shaft and its Summit magnified.
ERICA exsurgens.
CHARACTER SPECIFICUS.
DESCRIPTIO.
REFERENTIA.
1. Calyx, et Corolla.
2. Calyx lente auctus.
3. Stamina et Pistillum.