DISCRETE PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION

DUTIMOYI JAHANGIR
LECTURER
DEPARTMENT OF TEXTILE ENGINEERING, KUET
 PROBABILITY Features of A Probability
DISTRIBUTION Distribution

A listing of all possible  The probability of a particular outcome

outcomes of an experiment is between 0 and 1.00.
and the corresponding
 The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
probability.
 The list is exhaustive. So the sum of
the probabilities of the various events is
equal to 1.

Random Variables
In any experiment of chance, the
outcomes occur randomly. So it
is often called random variable.
Random Variable is a quantity
resulting from an experiment
that, by chance, can assume
different values.
Types of Random
Variables
A Random Variable may be either
 Discrete or
 Continuous
Discrete Random Variable:
A random variable that can assume
only certain clearly separated values.
Continuous Random Variable:
If we measure something such as the
width of a room, the height of a person
then the variable is continuous random
variable.
 Example
Consider a random experiment in which a coin is tossed three times. Let x be
the number of heads. Let H represent the outcome of a head and T the
outcome of a tail.

The possible outcomes for such an experiment-

TTT, TTH, THT, THH,HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH

Thus the possible values of x (number of heads) are 0,1,2,3.

From the definition of a random variable, x as defined in this

experiment, is a random variable.
 Probability Distribution VS Random Variable

A random variable reports the particular outcome of an experiment.

On the other hand, A probability distribution reports all the possible
outcomes as well as the corresponding probability.
 Types of Probability Distribution

1. Discrete probability Distribution: 2. Continuous Probability Distribution:

Can assume only certain outcomes. Can assume an infinite number of values

• Binomial within a given range.

• Hypergeometric • Uniform
• Normal
• Poisson
• Others
Mean of Discrete Probability Distribution
• The long-run average value of the random variable
• The central location of the data

m  [ xP( x)]
A weighted average where
m represents the mean
P(x) is the probability of the various outcomes x.
• Also referred to as its expected value, E(X), in a probability distribution
Variance of Discrete Probability Distribution

• Measures the amount of spread (variation) of a distribution

• Denoted by the Greek letter s2 (sigma square)

s  [( x  m ) P( x)]
2 2

Standard Deviation of Discrete Probability Distribution

• Standard deviation is the square root of s2

Example

Dan Desch, owner of College Painters, studied his records for the past 20
weeks and reports the following number of houses painted per week. What
is the mean and variance number of houses painted per week?
Solution

Mean number of houses

painted per week-

m  [ xP( x)]

= 11.3
Variance in the number of
houses painted per week
s 2  [( x  m ) 2 P( x)]

# houses Probability (x-µ)2 P(x)

painted (x) P(x) (x-µ) (x-µ)2

10 .25 10-11.3 1.69 .423

11 .30 11-11.3 .09 .027
12 .35 12-11.3 .49 .171
13 .10 13-11.3 2.89 .289
s2 = .910
Binomial Probability Distribution

• An outcome of an experiment is classified into one of two mutually

exclusive categories, such as a success or failure.
• The data collected are the results of counts.
• The probability of success stays the same for each trial.
• The trials are independent.
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FORMULA

P( x) n C x (1   )
x n x

Where, C denotes a combination, n is the number of trials, x is the number of

observed successes, is the probability of success on each trial.
nC x  n!
x!(n-x)!
Mean of the Binomial Variance of the Binomial
Distribution Distribution

µ= nπ s  n (1   )
2
Example
The Alabama Department of Labor reports that 20% of the workforce in
Mobile is unemployed and interviewed 14 workers. What is the probability
at least three are unemployed? What is the probability that exactly three are
unemployed? The probability at least one is unemployed? What is the mean
and variance value of the distribution?

Solution
Here n=14
π= The probability of success on each trial=0.2
X = No. of unemployed = 3
In this case the no. of success means the no. of unemployed.
P( x  3)14 C3 (.20) 3 (.80)11  ...14 C14 (.20)14 (.80) 0
 .250  .172  ...  .000  .551

P (3)14 C 3 (.20) (1  .20)

3 11

 (364)(.0080)(.0859)
 .2501
P( x  1)  1  P(0)
 114 C0 (.20) 0 (1  .20)14
 1  .044  .956
Mean and Variance Calculation

Recall that π = 0.2 and n =14

µ = nπ = 14(.2) = 2.8

s2 = n (1-  ) = (14)(.2)(.8) =2.24

Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
One of the basic criteria for the Binomial Distribution is that the probability
of success remains the same from trial to trial. Since the probability of
success does not remain same when sampling is from a relatively small
population without replacement, the Binomial distribution is not used.
Instead, Hypergeometric distribution is applied.

Finite Population
The number in the population is known and relatively small in number.
Characteristics of Hypergeometric Distribution

• Sampling from a finite population without replacement, the probability of

a success is not the same on each trial.
• Results from a count of the number of successes in a fixed number of
trials.
• Trials are not independent.
• The size of the sample n is more than 5% of the size of the population N.
(n/N > 0.05)
HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

( S Cx )( N  S Cn  x )
P( x ) 
N Cn
Where
• N is the size of the population
• S is the number of successes in the population
• x is the number of successes in a sample of n observations
• n is the size of sample or the number of trials
 Example
The Transportation Security Agency has a list of 10 reported safety violations.
Suppose only 4 of the reported violations are actual violations and the
Security Agency will only be able to investigate five of the violations.
What is the probability that three of five violations randomly selected to be
investigated are actually violations?

Solution ( 4 C3 )(10  4 C53 )

P (3) 
10 C5

( 4 C3 )(6 C2 ) 4(15)
   .238
10 C5 252
Poisson Probability Distribution

The limiting form of the binomial distribution where the probability of success p is
small and n is large is called the Poisson probability distribution.
The Poisson Probability distribution describes the number of times some event
occurs during a specified interval that can be time, area, distance etc.

Characteristics
• The random variable is the no. of times some event occurs during a defined
interval.
• The probability is proportional to the size of interval.
• The intervals do not overlap and are independent.
 Applications

Poisson distribution is used as a model to describe-

 The distribution of errors in data entry.

 The no. of scratches and other imperfections in newly painted car panels.

 The no. of defective shipments.

 The no. customers waiting to be served at a restaurant.

The Poisson distribution is always positively skewed and the random

variable has no specific upper limit.
 Poisson Probability Distribution

m e x m
P( x) 
x!
Where
µ is the mean number of successes in a particular interval of time
e is the constant 2.71828
x is the number of successes

Where
Mean m = np n is the number of trials
p the probability of a success
 Example
The Sylvania Urgent Care facility specializes in caring for minor injuries,
colds, and flu. For the evening hours of 6-10 PM the mean number of
arrivals is 4.0 per hour. What is the probability of 2 arrivals in an hour?

Solution

x m
me 4e 2 4
P( x)    .1465
x! 2!