Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Adaptation &
Resilience Impact
A measurement framework
for investors

April 2024

ARIC secretariat:

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Disclaimer
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The views expressed in this guidance do not necessarily represent the views of each
individual member of the Adaptation and Resilience Investors Collaborative (ARIC),
the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative, Cadlas or the group of external
consultees that assisted in the preparation of the guidance. We regret any errors or
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Suggested citation: Adapatation & Resilience Investors Collaborative (2024).

Assessing Adaptation & Resilience Impact in Private Investments: A measurement
framework for investors

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Acknowledgments

This guidance is based on discussions and work undertaken by the Adaptation and
Resilience Investors Collaborative (ARIC) impact metrics working group. The working
group includes representatives from the following institutions:

AFD Ce fichier est un document d’exécution

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The report was co-developed by working group members:

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RÉFÉRENCES COULEURS TECHNIQUE

ÉCHELLE 1/1

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B145
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CUTTER

Alar Cartan, Therese Rossiter, Chiara Trabacchi (British International Investment),

Federica Fotino, Alessando Mancini, Giorgio Massotti (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti S.p.A.),
Daniel Buckley, Beth Olberding (Development Finance Corporation), Stephanie
Shumsky (FinDev Canada), Marko Berglund (Finnfund), Irene Barnhoorn, Charissa
Bosma, Alyssa Pritts (FMO), Ken Chomitz (Global Innovation Fund), Sofia Chaichee,
Mayra Da Silva (Nordic Development Fund), Caroline Corlin (Proparco)

The working group would like to thank the following external reviewers for their
constructive and expert feedback, which helped to shape the final report:

Ellie Turner (60 Decibels), Mallory St. Claire (Aspen Network of Development
Entrepreneurs), Malika Anand (Catalyst Fund), Ujala Qadir (Climate Bonds Initiative),
Sagarika Chatterjee (Climate Champions), Jui Joshi (Climate Collective), Claire
Cummins (Climate Fund Managers), Nijhad Jamal (Factore), Masrura Oishi (Global
Impact Investing Network), Maarten Hage (Helios), Karl Schultz (International
Platform on Adaptation Metrics), Hamid Asseffar (Invesco), Daouda Ben Oumar
Ndiaye (Islamic Development Bank), Satomi Komachi (MUFG), Dr. Nicola Ranger,
Dr. Mark Bernhofen (Oxford University), Sudeshna Raychaudhuri (PRI), Nicole
DeMarsh (Sagana), David Goldsworthy (Standard Bank), Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Mathieu
Verougstraete (UNDRR), Raphaele Deau, Sumalee Khosla (UNEP)

Technical support: Cadlas and Chiara Trabacchi (British International Investment)

Management: Drew Johnson, Paul Smith (UNEP FI)

Design: Rob Wilson (UNEP FI)

Funding for technical support to this project was provided by British International
Investment.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

CONTENTS
Glossary............................................................................................................................... 6
Abbreviations and acronyms............................................................................................ 8
Executive summary............................................................................................................ 9
1. Introduction.............................................................................................................10
2. Structure and overview..........................................................................................11
2.1 Adaptation and resilience: key definitions................................................................ 11
2.2 Conceptual model for assessing adaptation and resilience impact............12
2.3 Adaptation and resilience impact management in the
investment cycle...................................................................................................................12
2.4 Aligning with other approaches to adaptation and
resilience measurement....................................................................................................13
3. Adaptation and resilience impact assessment: applying the ‘Five
Dimensions of Impact’........................................................................................... 14
3.1 What?..........................................................................................................................................15
3.2 Who?...........................................................................................................................................17
3.3 How much?..............................................................................................................................17
3.4 Contribution............................................................................................................................ 19
3.5 Risk..............................................................................................................................................21
4. Adaptation and resilience metrics...................................................................... 22
4.1 Proposed Adaptation & Resilience Impact Metrics..............................................22
4.2 Aggregating Adaptation & Resilience Impact Metrics......................................... 28
5. Looking forward..................................................................................................... 29
Annex: References........................................................................................................... 30

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

FIGURES AND TABLES

Figure I: Three dimensions of resilience: absorptive vs adaptive vs transformative
capacities
Figure II: Conceptual model for the assessment of investment adaptation and
resilience impact
Figure III: Managing adaptation and resilience impact along the investment cycle
(adapted from Impact Principles)
Figure IV: System-wide approach to infrastructure resilience: The Five Dimensions
of Impact

Table 1: Overview of the Five Dimensions of Impact

Table 2: Assessing scale and depth across the three aspects of adaptation and
resilience impact (people, planet and economy)
Table 3: Proposed set of adaptation and resilience metrics

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

GLOSSARY
Adaptation (or climate change adaptation)
In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its
effects, to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the
process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may
facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects (Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change [IPCC], 2022).

Adaptation & resilience enabling investment

An investment that provides adaptation and resilience solutions that contribute
substantially to preventing or reducing the risk of adverse impacts, or adverse
impacts, of the current and expected future climate on other people, nature, assets,
and/or other economic activities.

Adapted investment
An investment that includes adaptation and resilience solutions that substantially
reduce the risk of adverse impacts of current and expected future climate on that
investment itself.

Aggregation (or aggregability)

The process of assembling and summing quantitative information obtained from
multiple data points or information sources, to allow adaptation & resilience impact
to be measured at portfolio level.

Baseline
A starting point from which progress towards a given goal or target may be
measured.

Counterfactual
Analysis that considers what would have been the result if events had happened in a
different way to how they actually happened.

Ex ante
A measurement that is based on forecasts at the time of investment, rather than
actual results.

Ex post
A measurement that is based on actual results post-investment, rather than
forecasts.

Exposure
The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions,
services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in
places and settings that could be adversely affected.

Hazard
The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical climate event,
trend or impact that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, as
well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision,
ecosystems and environmental resources.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Impact
The long-term effects of the investment project, directly or indirectly, intended or
unintended, that may contribute to longer-term climate resilience, adaptive capacity,
or reduced climate vulnerability.

Investment origination
The process by which investors identify promising investment opportunities.

Maladaptation
Actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, including
via increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability to
climate change, more inequitable outcomes, or diminished welfare, now or in the
future. Most often, maladaptation is an unintended consequence (IPCC, 2022).

Outcome
The short- and medium-term effects of the investment, responding to the project-
specific context of climate vulnerability to build climate resilience.

Output
The immediate deliverables of an investment, for example the delivery of specific
assets, activities or services that respond to the investment-specific physical
climate risk context.

Physical climate risk

Risks resulting from climatic events, such as storms, floods or increasing
temperatures. The determinants of physical climate risk are hazards, exposure, and
vulnerability.

Physical climate risk scenario

An exercise to understand and navigate the uncertainties associated with future
physical climate risks to ensure that projected future climate conditions and events
can be withstood.

Resilience (or climate resilience)

The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with climate-
related hazardous events, trends or disturbances, responding or reorganizing in ways
that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining
the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation.

Vulnerability
The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses
a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and
lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ADB Asian Development Bank
ARIC Adaptation and Resilience Investors Collaborative
CIFAR Climate Innovation for Adaptation and resilience
GARI Global Adaptation and Resilience Investment working group
GHG greenhouse gas
GIIN Global Impact Investing Network
GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
IDB Inter-American Development Bank
IMP Impact Management Platform
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRIS+ Impact Reporting and Investment Standards+
JPMAM JP Morgan Asset Management
NAP National Adaptation Plan
NDC Nationally Determined Contribution
PRB Principles for Responsible Banking
STAR Species Threat Abatement and Recovery
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNEP FI United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative
WCMC World Conservation Monitoring Centre
WEF World Economic Forum
WG working group
WWT water and wastewater treatment

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Investors increasingly recognize the opportunities for investments to cope with
the risks and impacts of climate change. While there is broad agreement on
what constitutes climate mitigation finance, the same is not true for climate
adaptation finance and to how to assess its impact. This paper seeks to address
that challenge.

Adaptation and resilience can be defined as the ability to prepare, prevent,

respond to, and recover from climate-related shocks and stresses such as
extreme weather events and shifts in climate and weather conditions.1 There is
growing investment—including private investment—in a wide range of assets,
technologies and services that offer climate adaptation and resilience solutions
(J.P. Morgan Asset Management [JPMAM], 2023).

However, to prioritize and scale up investment in adaptation and resilience,2

investors need to better understand the dimensions of adaptation and
resilience, what qualifies as adaptation finance in private investment, and how
to accurately measure and report on the positive adaptation and resilience
impacts of their investments.3

Adaptation and resilience investments improve the climate resilience of people,

the planet, or the economy, assessing their impact in terms of the social,
environmental and economic benefits that they confer.

A conceptual model for assessing the impact of adaptation and resilience

investments is derived from best practice in impact management. This
combines impact pathways (activities, outputs, outcomes and impact) with the
Five Dimensions of Impact—what, who, how much, contribution and risk—as
defined by the Impact Management Project (Impact Frontiers, 2024).

This approach combined with a proposed set of metrics provides an initial

blueprint for investors to start applying and embedding adaptation and
resilience impact assessment into their investments.

This will accelerate understanding of how private investment finance can most
effectively support the climate resilience of people, the planet, and the economy.
It will also support wider processes such as the evolution of sustainable
finance and sustainability reporting standards, helping to bridge persistent gaps
between adaptation and resilience policy frameworks and the delivery of finance
on the ground.

1 See the Glossary for fuller definitions of the terms ‘adaptation’ and ‘resilience’.
2 The terms ‘climate change adaptation’, ‘adaptation’, ‘climate resilience’ and ‘resilience’ are often
used interchangeably. This document uses the umbrella term ‘adaptation and resilience’ to cover
all of them.
3 Throughout this document the term ‘investment’ is intended to refer to a specific investment
venture or investee. It may include, but not be limited to, debt, equity, quasi-equity and
guarantees.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

1. INTRODUCTION
This guidance paper offers a practical and consistent framework for assessing the
positive adaptation and resilience impacts of investments.

Investors are increasingly aware of the risks and impacts of climate change, and
of the emerging opportunities for investments that help to cope with them. In
2024 the World Economic Forum (WEF) identified extreme weather as the second
most significant global risk over the next two years, and the most significant global
risk over the next ten years (WEF, 2024). This is resulting in increasing investment,
including private investment, in a wide range of assets, technologies and services that
offer climate adaptation and resilience solutions (JPMAM, 2023). This is anticipated to
evolve into a multi-trillion-dollar market in the coming years (WEF, 2022).

However, where climate mitigation finance is relatively well understood and easy to
measure against, the same is not yet true of climate adaptation finance. To prioritize
and scale up investment in adaptation and resilience, investors need to better
understand the types of adaptation and resilience,4 what qualifies as adaptation
finance in private investment, and have suitable methodologies to accurately measure
and report on the positive adaptation and resilience impacts of their investments.5
These methodologies need to be clear, consistent and comparable, with a focus on
reporting the positive impact of the investment on adaptation and resilience of people,
the planet and the economy, not just the quantity of finance committed.

This will support investors to better develop investment strategies, originate and
prioritize investments, manage portfolios and report on impact. This will ultimately
allow investees to communicate the positive impact of their practices and solutions,
demonstrating their ability to thrive and attract capital in the face of intensifying
climate change impacts. In turn, this will enable investors to pursue emerging
commercial opportunities in this field, and to collaborate with other stakeholders,
such as co-financiers and regulators, to scale investments.

In response to this need, the Adaptation and Resilience Investors Collaborative

(ARIC) has collaborated with a broad range of private investors, international
organizations, advisory firms and academics, to develop focused and applicable
guidance for investors on the assessment of the adaptation and resilience impact of
private investments. In this paper ARIC offers:

a practical and consistent framework for assessing the positive

adaptation and resilience impacts of investments.

a conceptual approach to embedding adaptation and resilience

impact assessment in the investment cycle, drawing upon best
practices in impact management.

a set of clear, aggregable metrics that can be used to support the

assessment and management of adaptation and resilience impact
across investment portfolios.

4 The terms ‘climate change adaptation’, ‘adaptation’, ‘climate resilience’ and ‘resilience’ are often used
interchangeably. This document uses the umbrella term ‘adaptation and resilience’ to cover all of them.
5 Throughout this document the term ‘investment’ is intended to refer to a specific investment venture
or investee. It may include, but not be limited to, debt, equity, quasi-equity and guarantees.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

2. STRUCTURE AND OVERVIEW

This guidance paper starts by setting out foundational definitions of adaptation
and resilience and how assessment of adaptation and resilience impact can be
integrated into the current investment cycle. It then provides a conceptual model for
the assessment of adaptation and resilience impact that:

a. Complements other relevant systems of metrics and measurement for

adaptation and resilience in investment or financing operations.
b. Draws upon best practices in investment impact assessment—as defined
by the Five Dimensions of Impact (Impact Frontiers, 2024)—to guide the
assessment of adaptation and resilience impact.

It then proposes a set of metrics that may be used to organize and, where possible,
aggregate adaptation and resilience impact at portfolio- or sub-portfolio level, before
looking forward to how practice and guidance on the assessment of adaptation and
resilience impact could be further advanced.

2.1 ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE: KEY DEFINITIONS

Adaptation and resilience can be defined as the ability to prepare, prevent, respond
to and recover from climate-related shocks and stresses such as extreme weather
events and shifts in climate and weather conditions.6

Resilience can be seen as three dimensions of resilience that vary in intensity of

change (see Figure I):

a. Absorptive capacity—a low level of change that is defined as the ability to

cope with changing climate conditions, e.g. savings/parametric insurance.
b. Adaptive capacity—a medium level of change that is defined as the ability
to adjust incrementally and flexibly in anticipation of, or in response to,
changing climate conditions, e.g. early warning systems, capacity building,
adapted practices.
c. Transformative capacity—a high level of change that is defined as the ability
to make fundamental and structural changes in response to experienced or
anticipated changes in climate conditions. For example, systemic adaptation
measures such as new infrastructure that enables the use of alternative water
sources, or wholescale shifts to alternative agricultural production systems e.g.
growing different crops.

All types of adaptive capacities can form part of an investment strategy that aims to
positively impact adaptation and resilience in multiple contexts.

Intensity of change

Stability Flexibility Change

Absorptive
Adaptive capacity Transformative capacity
capacity
(Increment adjustment) (Transformational responses)
(Persistance)

Figure I: Three dimensions of resilience: absorptive vs adaptive vs transformative

capacities (Tanner et al., 2017)

6 See the Glossary for fuller definitions of the terms ‘adaptation’ and ‘resilience’.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

This paper focuses on adaptation and resilience in the context of private

investments that improve the climate resilience of people (e.g. individuals, families
or communities), the planet (e.g. natural habitats, ecosystems or biodiversity), and/
or the economy (e.g. economic assets, economic activities or economic systems) by
helping them to adapt to actual or expected climate conditions.

The ‘people, planet, and economy’ lens provides a clear focus on the adaptation and
resilience impact of investments in terms of the social, environmental and economic
benefits that they confer, beyond their financial returns to the investor.

2.2 CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR ASSESSING ADAPTATION AND

RESILIENCE IMPACT
The adaptation and resilience impact of an investment may be assessed through
the structured approach displayed conceptually in Figure II. This starts with defining
the boundaries within which the investment’s adaptation and resilience impact may
be assessed, and the specific context of physical climate risk that is relevant for
the investment. It then sets out a credible impact pathway that explains how the
immediate results of the investment (outputs) contribute towards wider changes
(outcomes). The contribution of those adaptation and resilience outcomes towards
the achievement of adaptation and resilience impact in terms of the increased
resilience of people, planet or the economy can then be understood and evaluated.

Impact
People Planet Economy

Outcomes
Selection of aggregable A&R outcome metrics to measure the contribution
to A&R impact

Investment
activities
Investment characterisation (adapted/enabling) and determination of
impact pathway

Physical
climate risk Boundaries of assessment and determination of physical climate risk context
context

Figure II: Conceptual model for the assessment of investment adaptation and
resilience impact

2.3 ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE IMPACT MANAGEMENT IN THE

INVESTMENT CYCLE
Investors may integrate adaptation and resilience impact assessment into the
investment cycle—from investment origination through to investor exit—by drawing
on the Operating Principles for Impact Management process for integrating the
positive impact of adaptation solutions throughout the investment cycle as
illustrated in Figure III (Operating Principles for Impact Management, 2019). Investors
may integrate an assessment of the investment’s expected adaptation and resilience
impact into the impact dashboard (or equivalent) during investment origination and

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

structuring. This may then be used to monitor and manage investment adaptation
and resilience impact while the investment is in the investor’s portfolio.

Assess, address, monitor & manage potential negative

impacts on adaptation & resilience (maladaptation)
◾ Define strategic adaptation & resilience impact objective(s), consistent with the
Strategic investment strategy
intent ◾ Manage strategic adaptation & resilience impact on a portfolio basis

◾ Establish the investor's contribution towards the achievement of adaptation &

resilience impact
Origination & ◾ Assess the expected adaptation & resilience impact of each investment, based
structuring
on a systematic approach

◾ Monitor and report the progress of each investment in achieving adaptation &
resilience impact against expectations and respond accordingly
Portfolio ◾ Identify and support new opportunities for investments to achieve adaptation
management
& resilience impact

◾ Conduct evaluation at investment exit to consider the effect on sustained

adaptation & resilience impact
Impact ◾ Review, document, and improve decisions and processes based on the
at exit
achievement of adaptation & resilience impact and lessons learned

Figure III: Managing adaptation and resilience impact along the investment cycle
(adapted from Impact Principles)

2.4 ALIGNING WITH OTHER APPROACHES TO ADAPTATION AND

RESILIENCE MEASUREMENT
In preparing this work, ARIC has drawn upon the extensive experience of its
members and has consulted with a wide range of private investors that are active
in the adaptation and resilience space, including leading impact investors, and
funds specializing in adaptation and resilience investment. In addition, ARIC has
consulted with leading industry associations in the field of adaptation and resilience
impact assessment, including the Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN), UNEP FI’s
Principles for Responsible Banking (PRB) and the Climate Innovation for Adaptation
and resilience (CIFAR) Alliance, amongst others. It has also taken stock of other
relevant systems of metrics for adaptation and resilience assessment, such as
the GIIN’s Climate Adaptation and resilience Metrics (GIIN, 2024), the Deutsche
Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit’s (GIZ) Repository of Adaptation
Indicators (GIZ, 2014), UNEP’s Land Use Impact Hub, and others.

This framework fills an important market-gap in this field by providing a higher-level

orientation for investors on the integration of adaptation and resilience metrics into
the investment process and into the assessment and management of adaptation
and resilience impact at portfolio level.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

3. ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE IMPACT

ASSESSMENT: APPLYING THE ‘FIVE DIMENSIONS
OF IMPACT’
The Five Dimensions of Impact (Impact Frontiers, 2024) as defined by the Impact
Management Project is a widely recognized framework for assessing the positive
impact of investments. This guidance uses the Five Dimensions of Impact as
an organizing logic for assessing of adaptation and resilience impact. The Five
Dimensions of Impact are summarised in Table 1:

Table 1: Overview of the Five Dimensions of Impact

What outcome the enterprise is contributing to,

What? whether it is positive or negative, and how important
the outcome is to stakeholders.

Which stakeholders are experiencing the outcome

Who? and how underserved they are in relation to the
outcome.

How many stakeholders experienced the outcome,

How much? what degree of change they experienced, and how
long they experienced the outcome.

Whether an enterprise’s and/or investor’s efforts

Contribution resulted in outcomes that were likely better than
what would have occurred otherwise.

The likelihood that impact will be different than

Risk
expected.

Assessing adaptation and resilience impact in investments can be integrated into

wider investment impact assessment in line with the Five Dimensions of Impact and
mapped against the activity/output/outcome/impact framework, as illustrated in
Figure II.

Section 4 provides ‘how to measure’ guidance for adaptation and resilience impact
assessment, structured around the Five Dimensions of Impact: what, who, how
much, contribution and risk.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

3.1 WHAT?

This dimension of adaptation and resilience impact focuses on what outcome the
investment is contributing to and how important it is to stakeholders, and describes
the expected adaptation and resilience benefits of the investment.

This begins by recognizing the need for an adaptation and resilience investment,
informed by understanding the investment’s physical climate risk context.
Contextualizing the assessment of adaptation and resilience impact enables
investors to articulate a theory of change that has the investment’s physical climate
risk context as its starting point. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) identifies the following key determinants of physical climate risk (IPCC, 2022):

◾ Hazards: Physical climate-related events or trends that may potentially occur

causing negative impacts within the investment’s boundaries of assessment.

◾ Exposure: The presence within the boundaries of assessment of people, natural

systems, and economic or other assets in places and settings that could be
adversely affected.

◾ Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition of people, natural systems and

economic or other assets to be adversely affected.

Given the inherent uncertainties and frequent data gaps (especially in emerging
markets), assessing physical climate risk information and its application in
adaptation and resilience assessment requires pragmatic and proportionate
approaches that use reliable external information sources such as:

◾ IPCC reports or other authoritative sources to identify emerging hazards and

vulnerabilities by sector or region based on the best available science, supported
where appropriate by socio-economic and/or environmental studies.

◾ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and National Adaptation Plans

(NAPs), to identify climate resilience priorities and solutions that are relevant
to specific country contexts, including downscaled national or regional climate
information on hazards and vulnerabilities.

There are two types of investments that can confer adaptation and resilience
benefits:

◾ Enabling investments, in addition to being themselves adapted, make other

people, businesses, natural or physical assets more climate-resilient by providing
adaptation and resilience solutions (e.g. technologies, products or services).

◾ Adapted investments are themselves made climate-resilient through the

effective management of physical climate risks, but do not necessarily make
others more climate resilient.

For example, an enabling investment could finance the research and development of
new types of climate-resilient crops, creating a wider system impact that improves
sector-level resilience. An adapted investment could build a road more resistant to
landslides or floods, which makes the entire investment in that area more resilient.
However, some investments have both enabling and adapted characteristics, as
illustrated in Box 1.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Box 1: Examples of investments with enabling and adapted characteristics

An ARIC member that invested in a company in an African country

that develops and markets cereal crop seeds. The adapted investment
component financed a grain drying unit to minimize grain losses due
to changes in precipitation patterns leading to severe flooding. The
enabling investment component financed the expansion of crop breeding
programmes to develop climate-smart maize varieties that would benefit
other maize growers.

Another ARIC member invested in a joint venture platform for financing

water and wastewater treatment (WWT) investments in African countries.
This platform will finance multiple WWT assets that may have to face
and address a variety of physical climate risks (e.g. droughts, floods,
hydrological variability, extreme heat), with a variety of expected
adaptation and resilience outcomes. This will be achieved by making
existing WWT assets more resilient to physical climate risks (adapted) and
through extending new, reliable and climate-resilient WWT services to
users, e.g. cities, communities and households (enabling). As illustrated
in Figure IV, in addition to themselves being adapted, climate-resilient
infrastructure investments may also enable the climate resilience of a
wider range of users of the services they provide and enhance resilience
at the systems level, thus supporting a wide range of beneficiaries from
businesses to households and natural systems.

Resilience of People and economies

Infrastructure Users that can cope with
Resilient infrastructure reduces the disaster-related services
impact of natural hazards on people disruptions
and economies

Resilience of An infrastructure system

Infrastructure Services of interconnected
Resilient infrastructure provides networks that provide
more resilient services reliable services before,
during, and after disasters

Resilience of Roads, mobile-phone

Infrastructure Assets towers, power lines,
Resilient infrastructure etc., that can withstand
is less costly to maintain natural hazards
and repair

Figure IV: System-wide approach to infrastructure resilience (Asian

Development Bank [ADB], 2022)

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Adapted investments can often make the investee itself more climate-resilient
and adaptable, while enabled investments can bring wider, system-level impact.
An investor may decide to focus on enabling or adapted investments due to their
investment strategies or the processes and procedures that they may need to
integrate into their risk management systems. For example, an investor may have a
strategy focused on enabling investments but may still need to make sure that these
are adapted to be able to deliver their commercial and wider impact objectives.

3.2 WHO?

This dimension of adaptation and resilience impact focuses on who experiences the
adaptation and resilience outcome, and on their climate vulnerability, using three
aspects of adaptation and resilience impact: people, planet and economy.

People: people (e.g. individuals, households, communities) supported to

be more resilient to climate change impacts

Planet: natural systems (e.g. habitats, ecosystems or biodiversity) that

are protected in ways that make them more resilient to climate change
impacts
Economy: economic activity conducted in ways that are more resilient
to climate change impacts, e.g. climate-resilient physical assets such as
climate-resilient water infrastructures, or climate-resilient businesses
such as agribusinesses or financial institutions.

An investment may deliver more than one aspect of adaptation and resilience
impact, as illustrated in Box 2.

Box 2: Example of any investment involving multiple aspects of

adaptation and resilience impact

An ARIC member invested in a food processing platform linking producers

with technology and market access to reduce post-harvest losses in a
South Asian country. This investment aimed to deliver adaptation and
resilience impact across the people and economy aspects. The people
aspect covered the number or people supported to be more climate
resilient through the technology and services provided through the
investment, while the economy aspect covered the increased producer
revenues and the economic value of avoided post-harvest losses.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

3.3 HOW MUCH?

This dimension of adaptation and resilience impact focuses on how much

the adaptation and resilience outcome is experienced, the degree of change
experienced, and the length of time over which the change occurs. The
assessment of adaptation and resilience impact entails the assessment of
the scale of impact, the depth or intensity of impact, and the duration of the
adaptation and resilience impact.

1. Scale of adaptation and resilience impact refers to the extent of the system
boundary within which climate vulnerability is reduced. It may be assessed
using output-level metrics, e.g. number of people trained in climate-smart
agricultural techniques, or hectares of agricultural land fitted with efficient
irrigation equipment.
2. Depth of adaptation and resilience impact refers to the extent of the
reduction of climate vulnerability. It may be assessed using outcome-level
metrics, e.g. such as number of farmers maintaining income levels during
droughts, or increased crop production per unit water used.
3. Duration of adaptation and resilience refers to the length of time over which
the adaptation and resilience outcome is experienced. It may be assessed
using metrics that can be measured over a reasonable investment time
horizon for private investors. Output-level metrics may be more appropriate
for measurement over shorter time frames, whereas outcome-level
metrics may require longer timeframes for measurement (Inter-American
Development Bank [IDB], 2019).

Table 2 provides an outline of how the concepts of scale and depth may be
applied over the three aspects of adaptation and resilience impact (people, planet,
economy), and Box 3 provides a specific investment example.

Table 2: Assessing scale and depth across the three aspects of adaptation and
resilience (people, planet and economy)

Aspect of Assessment of scale Assessment of depth

adaptation
& resilience
impact

People May require the use of ‘people
based’ metrics, possibly at output
level e.g. number of people given
access to flood risk awareness
training
May entail assessing the degree
to which people are made more
climate resilient using outcome-
level metrics, e.g. number of people
able to avoid income losses during
flood events

Planet May require the use of more
specific output-level metrics such
as hectares of protected habitat
May require bespoke assessment
to account for the high context-
specificity of climate change
impacts on different types of
natural systems

Economy Scale and depth may be conflated through the use of value-based
metrics such as USD/year of avoided climate-related losses

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Box 3: Example of the assessment of adaptation and resilience impact

involving depth of impact

An ARIC member invested in an agri-tech company supporting African

smallholders and businesses. As part of this investment, the investor ran
a dedicated ex post study involving an interview-based survey of >100
smallholder farmers to assess the farmers’ perceived improvements in
their climate resilience as a result of the investment. This covered issues
such as quality of life, ability to access enablers, improved knowledge and
increased yields and revenues.

3.4 CONTRIBUTION

This dimension of adaptation and resilience impact focuses on how the efforts of
the investor or investee result in better adaptation and resilience outcomes than
would have been expected if the investment had not taken place.

This may entail the assessment of adaptation and resilience impact against
a ‘without investment’ counterfactual—a hypothetical situation in which the
investment does not take place. Investors may define these counterfactuals
themselves, or use external analysis and partnerships (e.g. academics) to define
them. A credible baseline—a state against which change is measured (IPCC,
2018)—may support the development of this counterfactual. This could be a
current baseline, representing observable, present-day conditions, or it could be a
future baseline based on projected future conditions. Investors will need to select
appropriate baselines that take account of the specific investment context and
physical climate risk context to accurately inform their assessment of adaptation
and resilience impact. Box 4 provides an example.

Box 4: Hypothetical baseline example for a port infrastructure investment

A private port operator is considering investing in upgraded coastal flood

water drainage infrastructure to handle increased sea level rise and
flooding due to physical climate scenarios. Historical data may show that
areas of the port currently flood three times per year on average during
sea water inundation events. Climate change projections may estimate
that without investment, the port assets would flood ten times per year in
the next 30 years due to increased rainfall. By making the investment in
upgraded infrastructure, the port may assess that those flood-prone areas
will flood only five times per year even with climate change. Comparing
the futures with and without the investment (ten floods per year versus
five floods per year) allows the port operator to quantify the impact and
value of investing in climate adaptation. This counterfactual helps to
set measurable targets and assess performance of the infrastructure
investment over its intended lifespan.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Defining an impact pathway can set out a credible thesis for how an investment can
contribute towards adaptation and resilience impact, as illustrated below. These
impact pathways are also referred to as theories of change or theories of impact.
Essentially, they are representations of the logical linkages between activities or
investments and the expected outputs and outcomes.

A&R outputs A&R outcomes A&R impact

Investee installs drip Maintained or

A irrigation equipment improved water

availability in
People
on [x] farms
response to
climate-driven
increasing water
scarcity
Planet

Pathway A shows an investment that improves water availability, making agricultural

production and the food security of people more climate resilient.

A&R outputs A&R outcomes A&R impact

Investee establishes Increased provision

B facilities for new of adaptation and
resilience solutions
Planet
product line
(technologies,
products or
services)

Pathway B shows an investment that established new production facilities for a new
product line of flood warning technologies for wastewater treatment plants, which
makes the plants more resilient to flood risk and reduces the discharge of untreated
wastewater during flood events.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

A&R outputs A&R outcomes A&R impact

Maintained or
Investee commits to
improved water People
C physical climate risk
availability in
management regime
response to climate-
driven increasing
water scarcity
Planet

Improved investee
business practices
for adaptation and
resilience Economy

Pathway C shows an investment with a multiple adaptation and resilience impact

pathway, through improving physical climate risk management practices in a mining
company that i) minimizes shutdowns due to extreme drought, which makes the
industry’s economic output more climate resilient, and ii) reduces water abstraction,
which improves the climate resilience of freshwater ecosystems in the area where
the company operates.

At output level, successful investments into the three companies will reasonably
result in installing drip irrigation, establishing new facilities, and committing to a risk
management regime. At the outcome level, the investment company expects to see
changes such as maintained or improved water availability as a result of proper risk
management and enhanced irrigation, for example.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

3.5 RISK

This dimension of adaptation and resilience impact focuses on the likelihood that
adaptation and resilience impact will be different than expected. Some actions
that are intended to reduce physical climate risks may instead increase climate
vulnerability through inappropriate implementation or unintended consequences—a
situation referred to as maladaptation. Some examples of maladaptation are
provided in Box 5.

These maladaptation risks require robust assessment so that the potentially positive
adaptation and resilience impacts of investments are not undermined, resulting
in greater climate vulnerability over the longer term. Assessing maladaptation may
require a consideration of the wider impacts or unintended consequences that an
adaptation and resilience investment may have, as part of investment due diligence
and impact monitoring. It may also require a consideration of changing external
conditions (e.g. environmental, social, available technologies, etc.) that could alter
the overall adaptation and resilience outcomes of the investment.

Another example of maladaptation may be provided by an investment in solar-

powered irrigation pumps, which may benefit some users through low-cost water
abstraction for irrigation but may increase overall water scarcity risks through
excessive abstraction of groundwater that reduces water availability for others.

Box 5: Examples of maladaptation in investments

One example of possible maladaptation may be provided by an investment

in strengthening riverside flood defences to reduce the risk of flooding
for an asset such as a factory. Maladaptation could occur if the flood
defences increase the risk of flooding for downstream communities,
whose adaptation and resilience needs may not have been considered in
the investment.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

4. ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE METRICS

The Five Dimensions of Impact—especially the ‘what’ dimension—calls for the use
of metrics for measuring an investment’s impact. In the context of adaptation and
resilience impact assessment, the use of such metrics should take account of:

1. The investment’s physical climate risk context so that the use of adaptation
and resilience metrics is appropriately contextualized
2. Whether the investment is enabling or adapted (or both), as this may call
for differentiated adaptation and resilience outcome metrics to ensure that
the adaptation and resilience impact assessment across these different
investment types is clear, consistent and comparable
3. The aspect of adaptation and resilience impact (i.e. people, planet,
economy) that is relevant for the investment in question

4.1 PROPOSED ADAPTATION & RESILIENCE IMPACT METRICS

Table 3 sets out a proposed set of adaptation and resilience metrics for use in
assessing the adaptation and resilience impact of investments, in line with the
above guidance and the Five Dimensions of Impact. It is important to note that this
is an indicative and non-exhaustive set of metrics, as the highly contextualized
nature of climate change impacts, and of adaptation and resilience investment
needs, will require context-specific responses. Table 3 therefore provides only a
high-level guide to the kinds of metrics that may be used.

The metrics in Table III are set out against a set of adaptation and resilience
outcomes metrics and a series of other criteria as follows:

Adaptation and resilience outcomes: An indicative and non-exhaustive set of

adaptation and resilience outcomes, illustrating the key adaptation and resilience
themes drawn from the experience of ARIC members:

◾ Increased provision of adaptation and resilience solutions

◾ Increased provision of climate-resilience infrastructure
◾ Maintained or improved water availability in response to climate-driven
increasing water scarcity and drought
◾ Maintained or improved agricultural productivity in response to identified
specific physical climate risks
◾ Maintained or improved human health in response to identified specific physical
climate risks
◾ Improved management of natural assets for adaptation and resilience
◾ Business practices within investees that improve their ability to take action on
adaptation and resilience, such as adopting corporate adaptation and resilience
strategies, or physical climate risk assessment (at investee or entity-level)

Enabling/Adapted: An indication of whether and how the metrics may be applied

in enabling and adapted investments. In some cases, the adaptation and resilience
outcome may apply to only one or the other, but in other cases both options may
be possible. One example is climate-resilient infrastructure—such investments may
be adapted if they focus only on making the asset itself climate resilient but may be
considered as enabling if the focus is on transformative infrastructure that enables
improved climate resilience for people, planet or the economy beyond the asset itself
(see Figure IV).

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Example investment types: examples of what this investment could be (for reference).

Aspect of positive adaptation and resilience impacts addressed: An indicative

identification of the aspect of adaptation and resilience impact (people, planet,
economy) that may be relevant for a given investment, noting that this will be
an investment-specific decision reflecting the individual investment context and
strategic intent of the investor. The specific aspect (people, planet, economy) may in
turn inform the metrics used.

Output-level adaptation and resilience metrics: Examples of output metrics

that may be used, recognizing that the broad and diverse nature of adaptation and
resilience investments means a wide and diverse range of metrics may be used. The
metrics included are illustrative only, non-exhaustive and limited in number. They
focus on measuring the scale of adaptation and resilience impact, in line with the
‘how much’ element of the Five Dimensions of Impact.

Outcome-level adaptation and resilience metrics: Examples of outcome metrics

that may be used, which are also non-exhaustive and illustrative only. In line with
the Five Dimensions of Impact (‘how much’), the application of these outcome
metrics should go beyond scale to entail a consideration of depth of adaptation
resilience impact. See Table 2 for high-level guidance on assessing the depth of
adaptation and resilience impact.

Example metrics from existing frameworks: Example metrics from existing, relevant
results frameworks for adaptation and resilience such as the UK International Climate
Fund, the GIIN/IRIS+ Climate Adaptation and resilience Metrics, UNEP’s Land Use
Impact Hub and GIZ’s Repository of Adaptation Indicators (although other relevant
frameworks may also be applied). These partial examples illustrate how this guidance
ensures interoperability with these existing frameworks, providing investors with a
logical organizing structure for using these existing metrics in a way that is consistent
with and supportive of the investment cycle.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

Table 3: Proposed set of adaptation and resilience metrics (non-exhaustive examples only)

A&R outcomes Enabling/ Example Investment types Aspect Output-level A&R Outcome-level A&R Example
adapted of A&R metrics metrics indicators from
impact (focus on scale) (additional focus on other sources
addressed depth required)

Increased provision Enabling Investment in the development,
of adaptation and production, or distribution of
resilience solutions technologies, products or services
(technologies, that confer adaptation and resilience
products or benefits on their users, e.g. water
services) efficiency equipment, flood warning
equipment, or novel immunizations for
climate-driven vector-borne diseases Economy
(technologies), or weather-related
insurance, information services such
as mobile phone extreme weather
warnings (services)
People Number of people (#) Number of people (#) Number of people
adopting adaptation supported to be more supported to better
and resilience climate resilient by adapt to the effects
solutions made adaptation and resilience of climate change
available due to solutions made available (UK Government,
the investment (e.g. due to the investment 2023)
number of customers)
Value of adaptation Investee turnover (USD/
and resilience year) derived from the
solutions (USD) production of adaptation
produced by the and resilience solutions
investee due to the due to the investment
investment

Key:
A&R: Adaptation and resilience

Enabling or adapted investment

Enabling investment
Adapted investment

Aspect of adaptation and resilience impact addressed

People
Planet
Economy

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

A&R outcomes Enabling/ Example Investment types Aspect Output-level A&R Outcome-level A&R Example
adapted of A&R metrics metrics indicators from
impact (focus on scale) (additional focus on other sources
addressed depth required)

Increased provision Enabling Investment in the provision of People Number of people
of climate-resilient infrastructure that reduces the (#) using climate-
infrastructure climate vulnerability of people, resilient infrastructure
planet or economy beyond the provided through the
infrastructure asset itself, e.g. investment
transformative infrastructure such
as large-scale desalination or water
conveyance systems Economy Number of businesses
(#) using climate-
resilient infrastructure
provided through the
investment
Adapted Investment in the integration of Economy Number of adaptation
physical or non-physical adaptation and resilience
and resilience measures in existing measures (#)
physical assets to reduce their integrated into the
climate vulnerability asset due to the
investment
Number of people (#) Number of
supported to be more individuals
climate resilient through benefiting from
the provision of climate- enhanced climate
resilient infrastructure resilience flood
due to the investment measures (GIIN,
2024)
Turnover of businesses
(USD/year) supported to
be more climate resilient
through the provision
of climate-resilient
infrastructure through
the investment
Value of assets (USD) Value of power grid
made more climate assets that have
resilient due to the become more
investment resilient (GIIN, 2024)

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

A&R outcomes Enabling/ Example Investment types Aspect Output-level A&R Outcome-level A&R Example
adapted of A&R metrics metrics indicators from
impact (focus on scale) (additional focus on other sources
addressed depth required)

Maintained or Adapted Investment in the adoption of water People Number of people Number of people (#)
improved water efficient equipment or practices (e.g. (#) adopting water supported to be more
availability in water harvesting or water recycling efficient equipment or climate-resilient through
response to equipment, etc.) that provide water practices due to the the adoption of water
climate-driven savings in water-stressed settings investment efficient equipment or
increasing water practices due to the
scarcity investment
Planet Reduction in water Improved environmental Volume of water
abstraction (m3/ function of freshwater storage capacity
year) from freshwater habitats (e.g. species (UNEP & World
habitats that are richness) due to the Conservation
sensitive to water investment Monitoring Centre
scarcity due to the [WCMC], 2023)
investment
Maintained Adapted Investment in the introduction People Number of people Number of people (#)
or improved of improved, climate-resilient (#) adopting climate- supported to have
agricultural crop production techniques, resilient crop more climate-resilient
productivity in e.g. investments in low-till crop production techniques livelihoods due to the
response to production or agroforestry techniques due to the investment investment
identified specific Economy Number of businesses Turnover of businesses Increased turnover
physical climate (#) adopting climate- (USD/year) supported to of agribusinesses
risks resilient crop be more climate resilient using adaptation
production techniques through adoption of and resilience
due to the investment climate resilient crop technologies (GIIN,
production techniques 2024)
due to the investment

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

A&R outcomes Enabling/ Example Investment types Aspect Output-level A&R Outcome-level A&R Example
adapted of A&R metrics metrics indicators from
impact (focus on scale) (additional focus on other sources
addressed depth required)

Maintained or Adapted Investment in mainstreaming climate People Number of people (#) Number of people (#)
improved human resilience into healthcare services immunized against supported to be more
health in response and systems climate-driven vector- climate resilient through
to identified borne diseases reduced ill health from
specific physical as a result of the climate-driven vector-
climate risks investment borne diseases, due to
the investment
Improved Adapted Investment in the protection of natural Planet Area of habitat under Maintained biodiversity Species Threat
management of habitats to safeguard their ecological climate-resilient (number of species) in Abatement and
natural assets for integrity in the face of physical management the habitat protected Restoration (STAR)
adaptation and climate risks (hectares) due to the investment value of land under
resilience management for
restoration (UNEP,
2023)
Improved investee Adapted Investment that incentivizes the Economy Number of adaptation Turnover of businesses
business practices investee to adopt practices that and resilience (USD/year) supported to
for adaptation and improve adaptation and resilience practices (#) adopted be more climate resilient
resilience performance at the entity level (e.g. by the investee through the adoption of
physical climate risk assessment and entity-level adaptation
disclosure or corporate adaptation and resilience practices
and resilience strategy)

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

4.2 AGGREGATING ADAPTATION & RESILIENCE IMPACT

Beyond the investment level of assessment, investors may also wish to aggregate
adaptation and resilience outcome metrics so that they can monitor, manage and
demonstrate adaptation and resilience impact at the portfolio or sub-portfolio
level. This may be useful for strategic portfolio management by allowing investors to
understand parts of their investment portfolios, for example broken down by sector,
geography or some other consideration.

While this may be possible to some extent, it is important to be aware of likely

limitations to the aggregability of adaptation and resilience outcomes, which
mean that aggregation may not be possible or meaningful in certain cases. The
aggregability of adaptation and resilience outcome metrics may vary across the
three aspects of adaptation and resilience impact (people, planet and economy):

People: Aggregation may be facilitated by the use of people-based

metrics such as the number of people supported to be more climate
resilient. However, caution should be exercised as the scale of this impact
(number of people) is more readily aggregated than its depth (the degree
to which those people are made more climate resilient). Investors may
wish to consider establishing a qualifying threshold of depth of impact
to ensure that the aggregation is meaningful. As illustrated in Box 3 (p.18),
people-based metrics may often require ex post assessment and may be
challenging to assess ex ante.

Planet: Aggregation requires careful consideration of the context

specificity of climate change impacts on natural systems and of
limitations to comparability between diverse types of ecosystems.
Planet-based metrics tend to be more specific to certain environmental
outcomes, such as increased species richness or increased area of
protected habitat. Table III provides examples of planet-based adaptation
& resilience that may be aggregable within specific planet-based
adaptation and resilience outcome categories, for example reduction in
water abstraction (m3/year) from freshwater habitats that are sensitive
to water scarcity, or area of habitat (hectares) under climate-resilience
management practices.

Economy: Aggregability may be facilitated by the use of value-based

metrics, especially in relation to the scale of impact which may be
assessed using metrics such as USD or USD/year. In this way, an outcome
metric such as ‘value of assets made more climate resilient’ can be
aggregated across multiple investments and sectors.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

5. LOOKING FORWARD
This guidance provides practical support to investors who wish to assess and
finance private investments that target real-world climate adaptation and resilience
impact. Further piloting and refinement will facilitate socialization and development
in this area. This work should build upon the experience and firm evidence base
provided by impact investing, expanding its applicability to other types of investment
operations, including banks, funds and other commercial investors. It should also
support the development and application of consistent definitions of adaptation and
resilience investments, for example the Climate Bonds Resilience Taxonomy that
is currently under development (Climate Bonds Initiative, 2023). The application of
clear and consistent adaptation & resilience impact metrics in a taxonomy of this
kind may help to set clear thresholds for the eligibility of investments to be included
in climate resilience bond issuances on the grounds of their contributions towards
improved adaptation & resilience outcomes. It can also support investors’ efforts
to align with and support wider initiatives to guide progress towards international
adaptation & resilience objectives, such as the United Nations Global Goal on
Adaptation with its thematic and dimensional targets for adaptation and resilience.

In the meantime, this guidance provides an initial blueprint for investors to start
applying and embedding adaptation and resilience impact assessment into their
investments. This approach will accelerate understanding of how private investment
finance can most effectively support the climate resilience of people, the planet
and the economy. It will also support wider processes such as the evolution
of sustainable finance and sustainability reporting standards, helping to bridge
persistent gaps between adaptation and resilience policy frameworks, and the
delivery of finance on the ground.

With climate change impacts intensifying, the ability of investors to credibly

demonstrate the real-world adaptation and resilience impact of their financing is
growing in importance. In this respect, this proposed guidance is a significant step
forward for both private investors and the wider adaptation and resilience community.

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 Adaptation & Resilience Impact

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The Adaptation and Resilience Investors Collaborative (ARIC)
is an international partnership of development finance
institutions (DFIs) working together to accelerate and scale
up private investment in climate adaptation and resilience
in developing countries. To unlock investment in climate
adaptation and resilience, we build know-how, tools and join
forces to develop pipelines of bankable investments.