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C h ap man & Hall/CRC
I nt erd i s c i p l i na r y Statistics Series
Capture-Recapture
Methods for the Social
and Medical Sciences
Edited by
Dankmar Böhning
Peter G.M. van der Heijden
John Bunge
CHAPMAN & HALL/CRC
Interdisciplinar y Statistics Series
Series editors: N. Keiding, B.J.T. Morgan, C.K. Wikle, P. van der Heijden
Published titles
AGE-PERIOD-COHORT ANALYSIS: NEW MODELS, METHODS, AND
EMPIRICAL APPLICATIONS Y. Yang and K. C. Land
ANALYSIS OF CAPTURE-RECAPTURE DATA R. S. McCrea and B. J.T. Morgan
AN INVARIANT APPROACH TO STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SHAPES
S. Lele and J. Richtsmeier
ASTROSTATISTICS G. Babu and E. Feigelson
BAYESIAN ANALYSIS FOR POPULATION ECOLOGY R. King, B. J.T. Morgan,
O. Gimenez, and S. P. Brooks
BAYESIAN DISEASE MAPPING: HIERARCHICAL MODELING IN SPATIAL
EPIDEMIOLOGY, SECOND EDITION A. B. Lawson
BIOEQUIVALENCE AND STATISTICS IN CLINICAL PHARMACOLOGY
S. Patterson and B. Jones
CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHODS FOR THE SOCIAL AND MEDICAL
SCIENCES
D. Böhning, P. G. M. van der Heijden, and J. Bunge
CLINICAL TRIALS IN ONCOLOGY,THIRD EDITION S. Green, J. Benedetti, A. Smith,
and J. Crowley
CLUSTER RANDOMISED TRIALS R.J. Hayes and L.H. Moulton
CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE,THIRD EDITION M. Greenacre
THE DATA BOOK: COLLECTION AND MANAGEMENT OF RESEARCH DATA
M. Zozus
DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF QUALITY OF LIFE STUDIES IN CLINICAL TRIALS,
SECOND EDITION D.L. Fairclough
DYNAMICAL SEARCH L. Pronzato, H. Wynn, and A. Zhigljavsky
FLEXIBLE IMPUTATION OF MISSING DATA S. van Buuren
GENERALIZED LATENT VARIABLE MODELING: MULTILEVEL, LONGITUDI-
NAL, AND STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELS A. Skrondal and S. Rabe-Hesketh
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF MULTI-RESPONSE DATA K. Basford and J. Tukey
INTRODUCTION TO COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY: MAPS, SEQUENCES, AND
GENOMES M. Waterman
MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO IN PRACTICE W. Gilks, S. Richardson, and
D. Spiegelhalter
Published titles
MEASUREMENT ERROR ANDMISCLASSIFICATION IN STATISTICS AND EPIDE-
MIOLOGY: IMPACTS AND BAYESIAN ADJUSTMENTS P. Gustafson
MEASUREMENT ERROR: MODELS, METHODS, AND APPLICATIONS
J. P. Buonaccorsi
MEASUREMENT ERROR: MODELS, METHODS, AND APPLICATIONS
J. P. Buonaccorsi
MENDELIAN RANDOMIZATION: METHODS FOR USING GENETIC VARIANTS
IN CAUSAL ESTIMATION S.Burgess and S.G. Thompson
META-ANALYSIS OF BINARY DATA USINGPROFILE LIKELIHOOD D. Böhning,
R. Kuhnert, and S. Rattanasiri
MISSING DATA ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE T. Raghunathan
MODERN DIRECTIONAL STATISTICS C. Ley and T. Verdebout
POWER ANALYSIS OF TRIALS WITH MULTILEVEL DATA M. Moerbeek and
S. Teerenstra
SPATIAL POINT PATTERNS: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS WITH R
A. Baddeley, E Rubak, and R. Turner
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF GENE EXPRESSION MICROARRAY DATA T. Speed
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF QUESTIONNAIRES: A UNIFIED APPROACH
BASED ON R AND STATA F. Bartolucci, S. Bacci, and M. Gnaldi
STATISTICAL AND COMPUTATIONAL PHARMACOGENOMICS R. Wu and M. Lin
STATISTICS IN MUSICOLOGY J. Beran
STATISTICS OF MEDICAL IMAGING T. Lei
STATISTICAL CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS IN CLINICAL MEDICINE
J. Aitchison, J.W. Kay, and I.J. Lauder
STATISTICAL AND PROBABILISTIC METHODS IN ACTUARIAL SCIENCE
P.J. Boland
STATISTICAL DETECTION AND SURVEILLANCE OF GEOGRAPHIC CLUSTERS
P. Rogerson and I.Yamada
STATISTICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL BIOLOGY AND TOXICOLOGY A. Bailer
and W. Piegorsch
STATISTICS FOR FISSION TRACK ANALYSIS R.F. Galbraith
VISUALIZING DATA PATTERNS WITH MICROMAPS D.B. Carr and L.W. Pickle
CRC Press
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Contents
Foreword by Byron J.T. Morgan xvii
Preface xix
List of Figures xxi
List of Tables xxv
Contributors xxxi
I Introduction 1
1 Basic concepts of capture-recapture 3
Dankmar Böhning, John Bunge, and Peter G.M. van der Heijden
1.1 Introduction and background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2 Data sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2.1 Golf tees in St. Andrews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2.2 Homeless population of the city of Utrecht . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2.3 McKendrick’s Cholera data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2.4 Matthews’s data on estimating the Dystrophin density in the human
muscle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2.5 Del Rio Vilas’s data on Scrapie surveillance in Great Britain 2005 . 6
1.2.6 Hser’s data on estimating hidden intravenous drug users in Los An-
geles 1989 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.7 Methamphetamine drug use in Bangkok 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.8 Chun’s data on estimating hidden software errors for the AT&Ts 5ESS
switch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.9 Estimating the size of the female grizzly bear population in the
Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2.10 Spinner dolphins around Moorea Island . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2.11 Microbial diversity in the Gotland Deep . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2.12 Illegal immigrants in the Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.2.13 Shakespeare’s unused words . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.3 Estimating population size under homogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.4 Simple estimates under heterogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.5 Examples and applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.6 Heterogeneity of sources or occasions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.6.1 Darroch’s estimator and Lincoln–Petersen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
vii
viii Contents
1.7 Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
II Ratio Regression Models 19

2 Ratio regression and capture-recapture 21
Marco Alfó, Dankmar Böhning, and Irene Rocchetti
2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.2 Individual and aggregated data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.3 Real data examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.3.1 Fixed number of sources: The bowel cancer data . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.3.2 Unknown number of sources: The Shakespeare data . . . . . . . . . 26
2.4 The ratio plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.4.1 The Katz family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.4.2 Power series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.4.3 Mixed power series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.4.4 A specific case: The Beta-binomial distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.5 The regression approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.6 Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.6.1 The bowel cancer data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.6.2 The Shakespeare data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.7 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3 The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution and capture-recapture count

data 39
Antonello Maruotti and Orasa Anan
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.2 The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution and capture-recapture count data 40
3.2.1 Preliminaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.2.2 The CMP distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.3 Model inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.3.1 The ratio plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.3.2 The ratio regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.4 Variance estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.4.1 Approaches based upon resample techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.4.2 An approximation-based approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.4.3 Comparing confidence intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
3.5 Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.5.1 Snowshoe hares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
3.5.2 Colorectal polyps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
3.5.3 Root data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.5.4 Taxicab data in Edinburgh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.6 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4 The geometric distribution, the ratio plot under the null and the burden
of dengue fever in Chiang Mai province 55
Dankmar Böhning and Veerasak Punyapornwithaya
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
4.2 The case study on dengue fever . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
4.3 Geometric distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
4.4 Ratio plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
4.5 Ratio plot under the null . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Contents ix
4.6 Application to estimate the burden of dengue fever . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
5 A ratio regression approach to estimate the size of the Salmonella-

infected flock population using validation information 61
Carla Azevedo, Dankmar Böhning, and Mark Arnold
5.2 Case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
5.2.1 Salmonella data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5.3 Ratio plot and ratio regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
5.4 Ratio regression using validation information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
5.4.1 Application to the case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
5.5 Simulation study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
5.6 The inflated model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
5.6.1 Simulation study on zero-inflated data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
5.7 Discussion and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
III Meta-Analysis in Capture-Recapture 79

6 On meta-analysis in capture-recapture 81
John Bunge
6.2 Analysis of grizzly bear data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
6.3 Comments and future directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
7 A case study on maritime accidents using meta-analysis in capture-

recapture 87
Dankmar Böhning and John Bunge
7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
7.2 The case study on maritime accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
7.3 Meta-analysis essentials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
7.4 Analysis of maritime accident data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
7.5 Comments and future directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
7.6 Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
8 A meta-analytic generalization of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator for

mark-and-resight studies 99
Dankmar Böhning, Mehmet Orman and Timur Köse, and John Bunge
8.1 What are mark-and-resight studies? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
8.2 A case study on stray dogs in South Bhutan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
8.3 Meta-analysis and mark-resight studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
8.4 A Mantel–Haenszel estimator for mark-resight studies . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
8.5 Some simulation work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
8.6 Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
IV Extensions of Single Source Models 107

9 Estimating the population size via the empirical probability generating
function 109
John Bunge and Sarah Sernaker
9.2 Implementation of the empirical pgf method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
x Contents
9.2.1 Initial values for θ search . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

9.2.2 Error estimation for N̂ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
9.2.3 Goodness of fit for the empirical pgf procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
9.3 The Kemp distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
9.3.1 Approximate maximum likelihood estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
9.4 Simulations, data analyses, and discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
10 Convex estimation 121

Cécile Durot, Jade Giguelay, Sylvie Huet, Francois Koladjo, and
Stéphane Robin
10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
10.1.1 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
10.1.2 Convex abundance distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
10.2 Testing the convexity of p+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
10.2.1 The statistical test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
10.2.2 Simulation study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
10.3 Estimating the number N of species . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
10.3.1 Identifiability of N . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
10.3.2 Estimating p+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
10.3.3 Estimating N . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
10.4 Confidence intervals and standard errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
10.4.1 Estimator based on empirical frequencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
10.4.2 Estimator based on the constraint LSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
10.5 Case studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
10.6 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
10.6.1 Testing convexity of a discrete distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
10.6.2 Confidence intervals and standard errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
11 Non-parametric estimation of the population size using the empirical

probability generating function 141
Pedro Puig
11.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
11.2 The LC-class: A large family of count distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
11.2.1 Compound-Poisson distributions belong to the LC-class . . . . . . . 142
11.2.2 Mixed-Poisson distributions belong to the LC-class . . . . . . . . . . 143
11.2.3 Other distributions belonging (and not belonging) to the LC-class . 143
11.3 Some lower bounds of p0 for the LC-class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
11.3.1 Example: A two-component Mixed-Poisson distribution . . . . . . . 145
11.3.2 Example: A Hermite distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
11.4 Estimating a lower bound of the population size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
11.5 Examples of application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
11.5.1 McKendrick’s Cholera data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
11.5.2 Abundance of grizzly bears in 1998 and 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
11.5.3 Biodosimetry data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
11.6 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
12 Extending the truncated Poisson regression model to a time-at-risk

model 155
Maarten J.L.F. Cruyff, Thomas F. Husken, and Peter G.M. van der
Heijden
12.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Contents xi
12.2 The models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

12.2.1 The ZTPR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
12.2.2 The two-stage ZTPR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
12.2.3 The time-at-risk ZTPR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
12.4 The application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
12.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
13 Extensions of the Chao estimator for covariate information: Poisson case 163
Alberto Vidal-Diez and Dankmar Böhning
13.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
13.2 Generalised Chao estimator K counts and no covariates . . . . . . . . . . . 164
13.3 Generalised Chao estimator Poisson case with covariates . . . . . . . . . . 166
13.3.1 Two counts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
13.3.2 Generalised Chao estimator Poisson case: K counts and covariates . 167
13.3.3 Variance estimator for NGC with K non-truncated counts and covari-
ates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
13.4 Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
13.4.1 Simulation 1: Including unexplained heterogeneity . . . . . . . . . . 172
13.4.2 Simulation 2: Model with misclassification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
13.4.3 Simulation 3: Data generated from a negative binomial distribution 178
13.5 Case study: Carcass submission from animal farms in Great Britain . . . . 182
13.6 Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
14 Population size estimation for one-inflated count data based upon the
geometric distribution 191
Panicha Kaskasamkul and Dankmar Böhning
14.2 The geometric model with truncation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
14.3 One-truncated geometric model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
14.3.1 One-truncated Turing estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
14.3.2 One-truncated maximum likelihood estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
14.4 Zero-truncated one-inflated geometric model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
14.4.1 Zero-truncated one-inflated maximum likelihood estimator . . . . . . 198
14.6 Real data examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
14.6.1 Scrapie-infected holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
14.6.2 Domestic violence incidents in the Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
14.6.3 Illegal immigrants in the Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
14.7 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
V Multiple Sources 211

15 Dual and multiple system estimation: Fully observed and incomplete co-
variates 213
Peter G. M. van der Heijden and Maarten Cruyff, Joe Whittaker, Bart
F.M. Bakker, and Paul A. Smith
15.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
15.2 The population of people with Middle Eastern nationality staying in the
Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
15.3 Fully observed covariates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
xii Contents
15.3.1 Two registers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

15.3.2 Three registers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
15.3.3 Active and passive covariates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
15.3.4 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
15.4 Incomplete covariates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
15.4.1 Active and passive covariates revisited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
15.4.2 Example revisited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
15.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
16 Population size estimation in CRC models with continuous covariates 229

Eugene Zwane
16.2 Modeling observed heterogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
16.2.1 Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
16.2.2 Classical log-linear model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
16.2.3 Multinomial logit model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
16.2.4 Model selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
16.2.5 Multi-model approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
16.2.6 Bootstrap variance and confidence interval estimation . . . . . . . . 233
16.3 Data set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
16.4 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
16.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
17 Trimmed dual system estimation 237

Li-Chun Zhang and John Dunne
17.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
17.1.1 Census coverage adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
17.1.2 Replacing census with administrative sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
17.2 Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
17.2.1 Ideal DSE given erroneous enumeration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
17.2.2 Trimmed DSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
17.2.3 Stopping rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
17.2.4 Discussion: Erroneous enumeration in both lists . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
17.2.5 Discussion: Record linkage errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
17.3 Emerging census opportunity: Ireland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
17.3.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
17.3.2 Overview of data sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
17.3.3 Underlying assumptions and population concepts . . . . . . . . . . . 249
17.3.4 Application of TDSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
17.3.5 Comparisons with census figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
17.3.6 Discussion of future works . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
18 Estimation of non-registered usual residents in the Netherlands 259

Bart F. M. Bakker, Peter G. M. van der Heijden, and Susanna C. Gerritse
18.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
18.2 Previous findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
18.3 Meeting the assumptions of the capture-recapture method . . . . . . . . . 262
18.4 The residence duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
18.5 Capture-recapture estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268
18.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
Contents xiii
VI Latent Variable Models 275

19 Population size estimation using a categorical latent variable 277
Elena Stanghellini and Maria Giovanna Ranalli
19.2 Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
19.3 Concentration graphical models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
19.4 Capture-recapture estimation with graphical log-linear models with observed
covariates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
19.5 Extended Latent Class models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
19.6 Identification of Extended Latent Class models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
19.7 Confidence intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284
19.8 Example of models under unobserved heterogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
19.8.1 Congenital Anomaly data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
19.8.2 Bacterial Meningitis data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
19.9 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
20 Latent class: Rasch models and marginal extensions 291

Francesco Bartolucci and Antonio Forcina
20.2 Latent class: Rasch models and their extensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
20.2.1 The basic latent class model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
20.2.2 The Rasch model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
20.2.3 Extensions based on marginal log-linear parametrisations . . . . . . 294
20.2.4 Modelling the effect of covariates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
20.3 Likelihood inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
20.3.1 Estimation of the model parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
20.3.2 Estimation of the population size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
20.4 Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
20.4.1 Great Copper Butterfly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
20.4.2 Bacterial meningitis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
20.5 Appendix: Matrices used in the marginal parametrisation . . . . . . . . . . 303
21 Performance of hierarchical log-linear models for a heterogeneous popu-

lation with three lists 305
Zhiyuan Ma, Chang Xuan Mao, and Yitong Yang
21.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
21.2 Hierarchical log-linear models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
21.3 Performance given Rasch mixtures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
21.4 Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
21.5 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
21.6 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
21.7 Appendix: Proofs of the three theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
22 A multidimensional Rasch model for multiple system estimation 315

Elvira Pelle, David J. Hessen, and Peter G. M. van der Heijden
22.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
22.2 Data set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
22.3 Estimating population size under the log-linear multidimensional Rasch
model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
22.3.1 Notation and basic assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
xiv Contents
22.3.2 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318

22.3.3 Model with a stratifying variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
22.3.4 Assumption of measurement invariance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325
22.3.5 Generalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
22.4 MR model and standard log-linear model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
22.5 EM algorithm to estimate missing entries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
22.6 Application to real data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
22.7 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
23 Extending the Lincoln–Petersen estimator when both sources are counts 341
Rattana Lerdsuwansri and Dankmar Böhning
23.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
23.2 Discrete mixtures of bivariate, conditional independent Poisson distributions 343
23.3 Maximum likelihood estimation for bivariate zero-truncated Poisson mixtures 345
23.4 Unconditional MLE via a profile mixture likelihood . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
23.4.1 Profile likelihood of the homogeneous Poisson model . . . . . . . . . 348
23.4.2 Profile mixture likelihood of the heterogeneous Poisson model . . . . 349
23.5 Confidence interval estimation for population size N based upon the profile
mixture likelihood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352
23.6 A simulation study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
23.7 Real data example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
23.8 Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357
VII Bayesian Approaches 361

24 Objective Bayes estimation of the population size using Kemp distribu-
tions 363
Kathryn Barger and John Bunge
24.2 The Kemp family of distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
24.3 The likelihood function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
24.3.1 On maximum likelihood estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
24.4 Objective Bayes procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
24.5 Data analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368
25 Bayesian population size estimation with censored counts 371

Danilo Alunni Fegatelli, Alessio Farcomeni, and Luca Tardella
25.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371
25.2 Scotland Drug Injectors data set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372
25.3 Mathematical set-up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374
25.3.1 Log-linear models for possibly truncated counts . . . . . . . . . . . . 374
25.3.1.1 Unobserved heterogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375
25.4 Priors and model choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376
25.4.1 Prior choices for the population size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
25.4.1.1 Induced priors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
25.4.2 Prior choices for the other parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
25.4.3 Model choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380
25.5 Bayesian inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380
25.6 Data analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
25.7 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383
25.8 Appendix A: Induced gamma-type priors on N . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383
Contents xv
VIII Miscellaneous Topics 387

26 Uncertainty assessment in capture-recapture studies and the choice of
sampling effort 389
Dankmar Böhning, John Bunge, and Peter G.M. van der Heijden
26.2 Computing variances using conditional moments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390
26.3 Application to log-linear models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391
26.4 Bootstrap for capture-recapture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392
26.5 Choice of sampling effort . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
26.6 Lincoln–Petersen estimation and sampling effort . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
References 397
Index 417
Foreword by Byron J.T. Morgan
This is a timely, important book on the use of capture-recapture methods for social and
medical data. To quote one of the book chapters,
Capture-recapture methods provide a natural way to estimate the unknown size of
a partially observed population . . . through samples derived using some identifica-
tion mechanism (traps, lists, registries, etc.). These methods were introduced in the
wildlife setting to estimate animal abundance but have been extended to epidemi-
ology, public health. . . . However, this technique continues to be underused, despite
evidence that it can improve prevalence estimates even for diseases like diabetes that
are both common and relatively well identified.
Several books have been written on capture-recapture methods for ecology, over many years,
and one focussing on social and medical applications has been long overdue.
Much capture-recapture modelling analyses data have been collected on populations of
wild animals, and we have recently celebrated 50 years since three iconic papers laid the
foundations of the important Cormack–Jolly–Seber models. Issue no 2 of Statistical Science
in 2016 presents transcripts of interviews with Cormack and Seber, and a range of papers
outlining current research in ecology, social and medical areas. These papers indicate that
capture-recapture research is continuing to develop in imaginative ways, partly in response
to the demands of data arising from new technology, and also the need to monitor the effects
of climate change on the environment and wild animals. This book illustrates the power
of appropriate capture-recapture analyses in areas other than ecology. Several of the book
chapters describe new methods, and suggest avenues for future research. For example, there
is a wealth of material on fitting zero-truncated distributions; here one novelty is the use of
empirical probability generating functions to fit distributions that are readily described by
their generating functions.
The differing emphases among ecology, social and medical applications arise in part be-
cause of the primary consideration of closed populations in this book, whereas ecological
applications often also involve open populations, and associated estimation of survival and
movement probabilities. Indeed, none of the three papers mentioned above are referenced
in this book, and frequently different computer packages are involved for model fitting from
those in ecology. However there are many similarities, such as investigating sensitivity to
model assumptions, including the effects of heterogeneity. As with ecological applications,
the use of covariates can be illuminating, e.g., in determining the characteristics of opiate
users rather than, say, evaluating the effect of cold weather on the mortality of grey herons.
I would expect this book to facilitate cross-fertilisation of new methods between ecological
and non-ecological areas, for instance in the area of spatial capture recapture.
The relevance of the methods described is evident, with applications to studies of the preva-
lence of scrapie, and estimating numbers of injecting drug users, of immigrants, and of
victims of domestic violence, etc. Time and again we see the power of statistics in provid-
ing answers to really important questions. An interesting chapter considers alternatives to
standard censuses of human populations:
xvii
xviii Capture-Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Sciences
The production of socio-economic statistics is undergoing a paradigm shift. ... A case

in focus is the transformation of the population census itself. A number of European
countries, including notably all the Scandinavian ones, conducted their last round
of population census based entirely on the administrative data sources.
The wheel turns full circle here, in that Laplace’s iconic 1802 capture-recapture study
estimated the population size of France, using birth registers.
I enjoyed reading this book enormously. A great attraction is the wide range of motivating
examples, complete with data, which include several from ecology. The way that methods
are regularly illustrated on both real and simulated data is engrossing. Models are clearly
described and accessible. The book should be required reading, for years to come, for any
university course on applied statistical modeling, as well as being a vital reference for
research. I am sure that this book will be much read, and make a major impact.
Byron J. T. Morgan, FLSW

Emeritus Professor and Co-Director of the National Centre for Statistical Ecology,
Canterbury, Kent, UK
Preface
Capture-recapture methods have developed more and more interest over recent years. Not
only have the methods been extended and new developments added, the areas of application
have widened. With this book we try to acknowledge some of these recent developments.
Our focus is on applications in the social and medical sciences. This is in contrast to ex-
isting books including the classical monograph by Seber [259] or more recent books by
Amstrup, McDonald and Manly [7], Borchers, Buckland and Zucchini [49], King, Morgan,
Gimenez, Brooks [166] or McCrea and Morgan [202] who all are more directed towards
ecological applications. Hence we believe that this book covers a different niche. Of course,
we do not forget the impact of Chapter 6 on closed population estimation in the book by
Bishop, Fienberg and Holland [32] which introduced log-linear modeling into the closed
capture-recapture framework and was also directed towards applications in social science
and demography. Some of these developments are taken up in part V of the book at hand.
We have divided the contributions into eight different parts:
I Introduction
II Ratio regression models
III Meta-analysis in capture-recapture
IV Extensions of single source models
V Multiple sources
VI Latent variable models
VII Bayesian approaches
VIII Miscellaneous topics
After the introduction in Part I we focus on ratio regression models in Part II with con-
tributions by Marco Alfó, Irene Rocchetti and DB on the fundamental concept of ratio
regression modelling, by Antonello Maruotti and Orasa Anan with focus on the Conway–
Maxwell–Poisson distribution, and by Veerasak Punyapornwithaya and DB with focus on
estimating the burden of dengue fever in Chiang Mai province using ratio plotting on the
basis of the geometric distribution. Carla Azevedo, Mark Arnold, and DB look at a capture-
recapture setting wherein a subset of the observed data the missing information is available
as well and can be incorporated into the inference using a ratio regression approach although
other inference attempts would be possible too. Part III applies concepts of meta-analysis
to capture-recapture. JB provides the fundamental framework of meta-analysis for capture-
recapture. DB and JB provide an application of meta-analysis to maritime accidents and
DB, Mehmet Orman, Timur Köse and JB look at an application of meta-analysis for mark-
resight experiments. Part IV considers single source models. JB and Sarah Sernaker look
at population size estimation via the empirical probability function, whereas Cécile Durot,
Jade Giguelay, Sylvie Huet, Francois Koladjo, and Stéphane Robin use concepts of convex
distributions for population size determination. Pedro Puig looks at the construction of lower
bounds for the population size by means of the empirical probability generating function.
Maarten Cruyff, Thomas Husken, and PvdH extend the truncated Poisson regression model
xix
xx Capture-Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Sciences
to a time-at-risk model. Alberto Vidal-Diez and DB extend the estimator by Anne Chao for
covariate information, and Panicha Kaskasamkul and DB consider the case of population
size estimation for one-inflated count data. In Part V, we consider multiple sources. PvdH,
Maarten Cruyff, Joe Whittaker, Bart Bakker and Paul Smith look at dual and multiple
system estimation with fully and partially observed covariates. Eugene Zwane investigates
population size estimation in capture-recapture models with continuous covariates whereas
Li-Chun Zhang and John Dunne look at trimmed dual system estimation. An interesting
application is provided by Bart Bakker, PvdH and Susanna Gerritse on estimating the size
of non-registered residents in the Netherlands. Part VI considers latent variable models and
is opened by Elena Stanghellini and Maria Giovanna Ranalli who look at population size
estimation using a categorical latent variable. Francesco Bartolucci and Antonio Forcina
use quantitative latent variables and Rasch models including their marginal extensions in
the context of capture-recapture modelling. Zhiyuan Ma, Chang Xuan Mao and Yitong
Yang look at hierarchical log-linear models for a heterogeneous population with three lists
whereas Elvira Pelle, David Hessen, and PvdH consider a multidimensional Rasch model
for multiple system estimation when the number of lists change over time. Rattana Lerd-
suwansri and DB extend the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the setting when both sources
are counts in contrast to being binary which is the conventional case. Part VII contributes
two Bayesian approaches: Kathryn Barger and JB look at objective Bayes estimation of
population size using Kemp distributions and Danilo Alunni Fegatelli, Alessio Farcomeni,
and Luca Tardella investigate Bayesian population size estimation with censored counts.
The final Part VIII on miscellaneous topics includes a contribution by DB, JB and PvdH
on uncertainty assessment in capture-recapture studies and modelling.
It has been a very interesting experience working on this edited book for more than 2
years. We are most grateful to more than 40 contributors for sharing their research work
with us and helping us putting this book together. Without their support the book would
have not been possible. Finally, our thanks go to the publisher Chapman & Hall/CRC, in
particular Rob Calver and his team, for all support, encouragement and patience over the
period during which this book has been developed.
Dankmar Böhning, Southampton

John Bunge, Ithaca
Peter G.M. van der Heijden, Utrecht and Southampton
List of Figures
1.1 Golf tees in St. Andrews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.1 Log-ratio plot (left panel), and corresponding frequency chart (right panel),
N = 50, 000 simulated binomial counts, π = 0.4 and index T = 6. . . . . . 27
2.2 Log-ratio plots for N = {50, 500, 500, 50000} simulated binomial counts,
π = 0.4 and index m = 6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.3 Sidney secondary bowel cancer data. Log-ratio plot (left panel) and corre-
sponding frequency chart (right panel). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.4 Ratio plot (left panel), and log-ratio plot (right panel) for the Shakespeare’s
data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.1 Applications: Distributions and (weighted and unweighted) ratio regression

plots of real data analyzed in Section 3.5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4.1 Ratio plot for the dengue fever data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

4.2 Ratio plot with error bars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
4.3 Ratio plot under the null . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
4.4 Poisson and geometric ratio plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
5.1 Ratio plot for the positive and validation sample with the respective re-
gression lines (left panel); regression lines of the log ratio on x (right panel). 67
5.2 Single straight line regression model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5.3 Separate lines regression model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5.4 Ratio plot for case 1, case 2, case 3 and case 4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
7.1 Costa Concordia accident . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

7.2 Maritime accidents for Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
7.3 Maritime accidents for the UK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
7.4 Completeness of maritime accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
8.1 Mark–resight study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

8.2 MA of mark–resight study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
8.3 Meta-regression of mark–resight study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
8.4 Relative mean for 3 mark-resight estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
8.5 Relative SD for 3 mark-resight estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
9.1 Ratio p̃0 /p0 (L = λ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
10.1 Simulated distributions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

10.2 Abundance prediction for a series of examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
10.3 Estimated abundance of grizzlies from 1986 to 2001. •: convex estimation N b
(+- - -+: 95% confidence intervals). ×: total number of observed individuals
n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
xxi
xxii Capture-Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Sciences
11.1 Log-pgf plots (left panel) for p0 = 0 (zero-truncation), p0 = 0.05, 0.1, 0.229
and 0.344 (untruncated Mixed-Poisson). The plot of function ψ(s) (right
panel) shows a maximum attained at s∗ = 0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
11.2 Hermite distribution (a = 0.5 and b = 1). Log-pgf plots (left panel) for
p0 = 0 (zero-truncation), p0 = 0.01, 0.03, 0.0608 and 0.2231 (untruncated
Hermite). The plot of function ψ(s) (right panel) shows a maximum at-
tained at s∗ = 0.457. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
11.3 The plot of function ψ̂(s) (left panel) shows a maximum attained at s∗ = 1.
Log-epgf plots (right panel) for p0 = 0 (truncated), p0 = 0.4051 (untrun-
cated) and p0 = 0.7534 (the value for f0 = 168 households). . . . . . . . . 149
11.4 Plots of functions ψ̂(s) (left panels) showing maximums attained at s∗ =
0.504 (1998) and s∗ = 0 (1999). Log-epgf plots (right panels) for p0 = 0
(truncated), and for p0 = 0.1827 (1998) and p0 = 0.2587 (1999) (untrun-
cated) (dashed lines). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
11.5 Log-epgf plots for Biodosimetry data sets. Log-epgfs of zero-truncated sam-
ples (solid lines), untruncated estimates (dashed lines) and observed (dot-
ted lines). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
13.1 Boxplots of N̂ for the scenario with Yi ∼ P o(e−0.02X1i +0.03X2i ) with covari-
ates X1 ∼ N (5, 64) and X2 ∼ N (8, 64) and X1 used only in the estimation
process; A) N = 500, B) N = 1000, C) N = 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
13.2 Scenarios with 10% misclassified individuals in the population; A) N =
500, B) N = 1000, C) N = 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
13.3 Scenarios with 20% misclassified individuals in the population; A) N =
500, B) N = 1000, C) N = 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
13.4 Simulation based on a negative binomial Yi |Zi ∼ N B(µi , θ) with µi =
e0.02Zi , Zi ∼ N (8, 25) and θ = 3. Horizontal line indicates the true popu-
lation size of the scenario; A) N = 500, B) N = 1000, C) N = 2000. . . . 181
13.5 Ratio plot to investigate the presence of heterogeneity in the number of
animal submissions and carcass submissions respectively; r(x) = (x +
1)fx+1 /fx . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
13.6 Covariate-adjusted frequency plot comparing observed and expected fre-
quencies for models up to 7 counts; upper panel: all submissions; lower
panel: carcass submissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
14.1 Ratio plot and corresponding frequency chart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

14.2 Applications: Ratio plots and fitted values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
15.1 Interaction graphs for log-linear models with one covariate. . . . . . . . . 218
15.2 Interaction graphs of log-linear models with two covariates. . . . . . . . . 220
15.3 Interaction graphs of log-linear models with three registers and one covari-
ate (see also next page). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
15.4 Interaction graphs of log-linear models with partially observed covariates. 221
17.1 Illustration of three stopping rule indicators: left column: E(N̂k ); middle
column: E(k1 ); right column: E(vk ). Setting (N, n, x, r, p): same for each
row. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
17.2 Proportion of identified driving licence holders on the PAR by nationality,
selected age group and sex (2011). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
17.3 Illustration of TDSE in year 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
17.4 Comparison of various population estimates by age and sex in year 2011. 254
List of Figures xxiii
18.1 Number of usual residents for each scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
19.1 Concentration graphs corresponding to models with observed covariates . 280

19.2 Concentration graphs corresponding to models with unobserved covariates 283
19.3 Massachusetts Congenital Anomaly data: concentration graph of the model
and profile log-likelihood of the undercount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
19.4 Concentration graph corresponding to the selected model for Bacterial
Meningitis data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
19.5 Profile log-likelihood of the undercounts of Bacterial Meningitis data . . . 289
20.1 Butterfly data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

20.2 Meningitis data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
22.1 Model with three lists and two latent variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
22.2 Model with a list in common for the two latent variables . . . . . . . . . 322
22.3 Model with three lists and one latent variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
22.4 Structure of latent variables in stratum 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
22.5 Structure of latent variables in stratum 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325
22.6 Model with six lists and three latent variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
22.7 Path diagram of model 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332
22.8 Path diagram of model 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
22.9 Yearly estimates for the five models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
23.1 The profile log-likelihood plot for Example 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351

23.2 95% Confidence interval for Example 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
24.1 Histograms of the posterior sample of N from the Kemp model 0 F1 showing
typical shapes of the objective Bayes posterior densities. . . . . . . . . . . 368
26.1 Expected number of hidden units E(f0 ) with 95% pointwise prediction
interval. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
26.2 Contour plot for the choice of sampling effort T in dependence on θ and p0 . 394
List of Tables
1.1 Golf tees in St. Andrews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

1.2 Homeless population of Utrecht . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3 Drug user data of California . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.4 Methamphetamine drug use data of Bangkok . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.5 issues with the AT&Ts 5ESS switch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.6 Grizzle bear population in Yellowstone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.7 Protistan diversity in the Gotland Deep . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.8 Shakespeare’s unused words . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.9 Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.10 Fixed point algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.11 Two occasions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.1 Count of positive FOBT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

2.2 Secondary bowel cancer data: estimated frequency (fˆ0 ) by several different
estimators. True observed frequency f0 = 22. Confidence level 1 − α = 0.95 36
3.1 Population size estimation and uncertainty assessment in real data . . . . 52
4.1 Dengue fever in Chiang Mai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
5.1 Frequency of positive counts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

5.2 Frequency of counts for a validation sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
5.3 Positive sample of Salmonella data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5.4 Validation sample of Salmonella data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
5.5 Results for the Salmonella data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
5.6 Mean and variance for a positive sample size of 50 and validation sample
size of 25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
sizes of 25 and 50 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
sizes of 25, 50 and 100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
sizes of 25, 50, 100 and 1000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5.10 Estimate of the population size for the Salmonella data using a zero-
inflated model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
5.11 Estimates of f0 from the simulation study of a binomial with 50% zero-
inflated data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
6.1 Observed (ni ) and estimated (N̂i ) population sizes, with standard errors
(σ̂i ), for grizzly bear data, by year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
7.1 Maritime accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
xxv
xxvi Capture-Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Sciences
7.2 Observed ni = Sea-Web + Flag-State - Common and estimated N̂i popu-

lation sizes for maritime accident data by year and country. . . . . . . . . 92
7.3 Average population size estimates with Higgins I 2 estimate of size of het-
erogeneity by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
8.1 Mark-resight experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

8.2 Meta-regression of population size estimated by Chapman’s estimator on
resighting occasion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
8.3 Mark-resight as Lincoln–Petersen experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
8.4 Mark-resight as Chapman experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
9.1 Simulation of empirical pgf procedure in Poisson case . . . . . . . . . . . 117

9.2 Simulation of empirical pgf procedure in negative binomial case . . . . . . 118
9.3 Point estimates N̂ (rounded to nearest integer) for Chapter 1 example
datasets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
9.4 Point estimates N̂ (rounded to nearest integer) for Chapter 1 example
datasets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
10.1 Empirical rejection probabilities (in %) for the triangular distributions Tj

with j ∈ {3, 6, 15, 50, 100} versus n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
10.2 Empirical rejection probabilities (in %) for the spline distributions Qkj for
j = 15 and k ∈ {3, 6, 20} versus n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
10.3 Empirical
rejection√probabilities (in %) for the Poisson distributions with
λ ∈ 0.5, 0.55, 2 − 2, 0.6, 0.7, 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
10.4 Empirical rejection probabilities (in %) for the distributions described by
Equations (10.8), (10.9), and (10.10) versus n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
10.5 Test for convexity and estimated abundance for a series of examples . . . 131
10.6 Estimated abundance of grizzlies by year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
11.1 Application to data sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
12.1 Parameter estimates and RMSE of the simulation study . . . . . . . . . . 160

12.2 Observed frequencies and counts of the covariates . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
12.3 Mean and standard deviations of the time variables, proportional to T . . 160
12.4 Parameter and population size estimates of the three ZTPR models . . . 161
13.1 Point estimates (SD), RMSE and relative bias of N̂ for the scenario
with Yi ∼ P o(e−0.02X1i +0.03X2i ) with covariates X1 ∼ N (5, 64) and
X2 ∼ N (8, 64) and the estimation process based only in X1 . . . . . . . . 173
13.2 Point estimates (SD), RMSE and relative bias for a fitted model with
misclassified observations Yi ∼ P o(eα+βZi ) with i = 1, .., N . Yi ∼ P o(0.5)
for Zi = 0 and Yi ∼ P o(3) for Zi = 1; the probability of P (Zi = 1) = 0.45;
10% of the population misclassified . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
13.3 Point estimates (SD), RMSE and relative bias for a fitted model with
misclassified observations Yi ∼ P o(eα+βZi ) with i = 1, .., N . Yi ∼ P o(0.5)
for Zi = 0 and Yi ∼ P o(3) for Zi = 1; the probability of P (Zi = 1) = 0.45;
20% of the population misclassified . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
13.4 Point estimates (SD), RMSE and relative bias for data generated using
a negative binomial distribution Yi |Zi ∼ N B(µi , θ) with µi = e0.02Zi ,
Zi ∼ N (8, 25) and θ = 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
List of Tables xxvii
13.5 Frequency distribution of number of farms submitting any type of samples

(first row) and number of farms submitting carcass samples (second row)
to APHA regional laboratories in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
13.6 Ratios (r(x) = (x + 1)fx+1 /fx ) and confidence bands for the ratio plot
(Figure 13.5) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
13.7 1. Results from the logistic regressions to obtain the generalised Chao esti-
mates 2. Point estimates and 95%CI of the number of farms with unknown
disease based on any sample and only carcass samples . . . . . . . . . . . 185
14.1 Population size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

14.2 Relative bias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
14.3 Relative variance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
14.4 Relative mean square error . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
14.5 French scrapie-infected holdings in 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
14.6 Results for scrapie-infected holdings in France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
14.7 Domestic violence incidents in the Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
14.8 Results for domestic violence study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
14.9 Illegal immigrant for four cities in the Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
14.10 Results for illegal immigrants study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
15.1 Linked registers GBA and HKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216

15.2 Models fitted to contingency table of variables A (GBA), B (HKS) and to
A, B and X1 (gender), deviances, degrees of freedom (df) and estimated
numbers missed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
15.3 Observed and fitted counts for the three-way table of A (GBA), B (HKS)
and X1 (gender) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
15.4 Models fitted in a four-way array of variables A, B, X1 and X2 . . . . . . 219
15.5 Models fitted to examples of variables A, B, X1 to X5 , deviances, degrees
of freedom, AICs, estimated population size and 95% confidence intervals 222
15.6 Covariate X1 is only observed in register A and X2 is only observed in B 223
15.7 Models fitted to examples of variables A, B, X1 to X5 , deviances, degrees
of freedom, AICs, estimated population size and 95% confidence intervals 225
15.8 Estimates for the GBA with each of the other variables under model N4 . 226
16.1 Number of children born with neural tube defects in the Netherlands by
capture configuration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
16.2 Number of children born with neural tube defects in the Netherlands by
capture configuration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
16.3 Estimated population size (N ), bootstrapped variance, bootstrap 95% CI 235
18.1 Linkage effectiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263

18.2 Missing values in the linkage key in PR, ER and CSR linkage
18.3 Seven scenarios for residence duration derived from employment records
by nationality. The data concern individuals registered in the ER but not
in the PR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
18.4 The observed values for the three registers ×1.000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268
18.5 Estimated number of usual residents not registered in the PR by nationality
group after PMM ×1.000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
18.6 The 8 scenarios for the estimation of the number of usual residents . . . . 270
18.7 The confidence intervals for two of the scenarios. PSE denotes the popu-
lation size estimate and CI stands for confidence interval . . . . . . . . . 271
xxviii Capture-Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Sciences
19.1 Models investigated for Congenital Anomaly data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287

19.2 Bacterial Meningitis data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
19.3 Estimated undercounts of Bacterial Meningitis data . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
20.1 Butterfly data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300

20.2 Butterfly data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
20.3 Meningitis data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
20.4 Meningitis data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
20.5 Meningitis data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
21.1 The observed counts in Example HAV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306

21.2 The eight hierarchical log-linear models for three lists . . . . . . . . . . . 307
21.3 The coefficients in eight log-linear models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
21.4 Simulation result under various settings from each of eight log-linear mod-
els . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
21.5 The observed and fitted counts in Example HAV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
21.6 Results in Example HAV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
22.1 Observed frequencies of neural tube defect in the Netherlands . . . . . . . 317

22.2 Contingency table for three lists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
22.3 Contingency table for three lists and two strata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
22.4 Estimates of the two-factor interaction parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
22.5 Selected models with deviance, AIC and BIC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334
22.6 Yearly estimates for the selected models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334
22.7 Parameter estimates for MR model 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336
22.8 Calculated parameters for the standard log-linear model . . . . . . . . . . 336
22.9 95% Confidence intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
22.10 95% Confidence intervals for yearly estimates of the population size . . . 337
22.11 95% Confidence intervals for yearly estimates of the population size . . . 337
23.1 A 2 × 2 table of a two-source situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342

23.2 Count distribution in terms of contingency table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
23.3 Frequency distribution of heroin user contacts in 1st half year and 2nd half
year of 2001 in Bangkok (Thailand) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
23.4 Profile maximum likelihood analysis for Example 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350
23.5 Estimated population size and 95% CI from various estimators (true N =
100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
23.6 Comparison of various estimators and 95% CI of N (true N = 100) . . . 356
23.7 Comparison of various estimators and 95% CI of N (true N = 1000) . . . 357
23.8 Frequency distribution of the heroin user contacts for the 1-year period in
2001 in Bangkok (Thailand) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358
23.9 Estimated total number of heroin users in 2001 in Bangkok (Thailand) . 358
23.10 Frequencies of heroin user contacts in 2001 in Bangkok (Thailand) . . . . 359
24.1 Objective Bayes and ML results on 10 datasets. Wald interval = ±1.96 ×

SE. Missing results ≡ computation failed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
25.1 Scotland Drug Injectors data. In bold, censored frequencies . . . . . . . . 373

25.2 Induced priors as a function of λ assuming π(exp(φ)) ∝ exp((λ − 1)φ) and
prior independence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
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To the land of corruption I must go.
[190]
The goddess here declares that, like other fertility goddesses, she comes from the fruitful supernatural
country of Tamaonchan, the home of the maize. Piltzintecutli, the Sun-god, seeks her, but, like Ishtar in
Babylonian myth, she must betake herself to the Underworld, until it is once more time to resume her
growth-assisting labours. We have here good grounds for positing the existence of a popular myth which
would seem to have recounted how the divine lovers dwelt happily in Tamoanchan until Xochiquetzal
was forced to quit the blest abode or was carried off, and was sought for by the Sun-god, a myth like
that of Proserpine or Orpheus. It may refer to the sun seeking the flower, or may have a bearing upon
the myth of Ixnextli, a variant of Xochiquetzal, who was expelled from Paradise, and of whom the
interpreter of Codex Vaticanus A says: “Ixnextli, who is the same as Eve, is always weeping, her eyes
dim with ashes, a rose in her hand, emblematical of her grief, being in consequence of her having
gathered it. And accordingly they celebrate a fast every eight years on account of this calamitous event;
the fast was on bread and water. They fasted on the eight signs preceding the entrance of the rose, and
when that sign arrived, they prepared themselves for the celebration of the festival. They affirm that
every series of five days comprised in this calendar was dedicated to this fall, because on such a day
Eve sinned. They were accordingly enjoined to bathe themselves on this night in order to escape
disease.” Regarding this myth the interpreter of the Codex Telleriano-Remensis says: “They represented
her as Eve always weeping and looking at her husband, Adam. She is called Ysnextli, which signifies
‘eyes blind with ashes’; and this refers to the time subsequent to her sinning by plucking the roses. They
accordingly declare that they are still unable to look up to heaven, and in recollection of the happy state
which she lost, they fasted every eight years on account of this fall.” It is significant that the goddess
pictured beside this statement is called “Suchiquezal.”
(From Codex Fejérváry-Mayer.)

(From Codex Borgia.)
FORMS OF XOCHIQUETZAL.
XOCHIQUETZAL
(From the Codex Fejérváry-Mayer.)
Diego Muñoz Camargo, in his Historia de Tlaxcala, equates Xochiquetzal with Venus and states that:
“She dwells [191]above the nine heavens in a very pleasant and delectable place, accompanied and
guarded by many people and waited on by other women of the rank of goddesses, where are many
delights of fountains, brooks, flower-gardens, and without her wanting for anything, and that where she
sojourned she was guarded and sheltered from the gaze of the people, and that in her retinue she had a
great many dwarfs and hunchbacks, jesters, and buffoons, who entertained her with music and dancing
and whom she sent as her confidants and messengers to the other gods, and that their chief occupation
was the spinning and weaving of sumptuous artistic fabrics, and that they were painted so beautifully
and elegantly that nothing finer could be found amongst mortals. But the place where she dwelt was
called Tamohuanichan Xochitl ihcacan, Chicuhnauh-nepaniuhcan, Itzehecaya, that is, ‘the house of the
descent or of birth, the place where are the flowers, the ninefold enchained, the place of the fresh, cool
winds.’ And every year she was honoured with a great feast, to which many people from all parts were
gathered in her temple.” He continues: “They say that she had formerly been the spouse of the Rain-
god, Tlaloc, but that Tezcatlipocâ had abducted her, and brought her to the nine heavens, and made her
the goddess of love. And then there was another goddess, Matlalcuêyê, the goddess to whom were
attributed witchcraft and soothsaying. Her Tlaloc had made his consort after Tezcatlipocâ had carried off
his wife Xochiquetzal.” 32
Another myth, given by Boturini, recounts her temptation of the holy ascetic Yappan, who dwelt in a
desert place in order to lead a continent and solitary life, so that he might win the favour of the gods. He
took up his abode on a rock called Tehuehuetl, but the gods conceived a doubt of his piety, and sent an
enemy of his, Yaotl (enemy), to watch his movements. Even this bitter foe found nothing to cavil at in his
conduct, and women sent by the gods to lead him from the paths of rectitude were sternly repulsed. The
divine beings were about to consider his apotheosis, when [192]Xochiquetzal, feeling that her reputation
as a tempter of men was at stake, angrily assured them that she was able to effect his seduction.
Descending to earth, she sought out the hermit, whom she assured of her admiration and esteem, and
asked by what path she might ascend to his rocky seat. All unsuspicious of her intent, Yappan
descended from his place on the rock and assisted her to climb the rugged eminence. Yappan forgot his
vow of chastity, and when the goddess had departed, found himself deserted by the angry gods to the
mercies of his enemy, Yaotl, who slew him out of hand. The gods transformed the slain man into a
scorpion, and Yaotl having also slain Yappan’s wife, Tlahuitzin, whom he had abandoned for the life
ascetic, she was transformed into an animal of the same species, and crawling under a stone, found her
husband there. But the gods, wrathful at Yaotl’s excessive cruelty, changed him into a locust. 33
FESTIVALS
Chicomexochitl (“Seven Flower”).—In the sign ce ocelotl, on the day chicomexochitl, the artists united to
hold festival to the goddess, and the laundresses, says Sahagun, 34 fasted forty days. “They joined
together, twenty or more, to obtain a better quality of pictures and weaves and to this end offered up
quails and incense.” This was one of the movable feasts.
In an illuminating passage in his disquisition upon the Aubin tonalamatl (p. 123) Seler says: “As I have
remarked at the opening of the section, the goddess Xochiquetzal is properly the expression of the day-
sign xochitl. But owing to the transference of the series of rulers of the day-signs to the weeks in the
peculiar way affected by the calendar-makers, that is, by a general shifting of one member, 35
[193]Xochiquetzal has been brought into association with the sign ce quauhtli (one eagle). But in
Telleriano-Remensis at this week the hand-mark 36 which indicates the feast-day proper of the ruler of
the week stands at the first day itself—the sign ce quauhtli, that induced the calendar-makers to effect
the above-described dislocation in the second half of the list of rulers. For more than one reason the day
ce quauhtli must really have seemed to the priestly savants specially appropriate to the goddess
Xochiquetzal, and above all, because this day was one of the five which fell at the beginning or western
quarter of the tonalamatl disposed in columns of five members. Hence these five days were collectively
regarded as dedicated to the earth-goddesses, and as the days in which the ghostly women dwelling in
the west, the Ciuateteô, swooped down upon earth, striking the children with epilepsy and beguiling the
men to lust and sin.” These Ciuateteô were stregæ, witches, succubi, and their characteristics, which
are touched upon in the section dealing with Tlazolteotl, will be more fully outlined elsewhere.
Quecholli.—The people of Tlaxcallan held a festival to Xochiquetzal in the month quecholli, when the
Mexicans celebrated the feast of Mixcoatl. At the Tlaxcaltec feast numbers of young women were
sacrificed to the goddess, “to the honour of love,” and the prostitutes were also in the habit of offering
themselves for immolation, we are informed by Torquemada, 37 first haling the “honest” women through
the mire and subjecting them to the foulest abuse. The Tlalhuica, who lived in the hot lands south of
Mexico, themselves, like the Tlaxcaltecs, a people of Nahua race, held a festival in honour of
Xochiquetzal in the month tepeilhuitl, which the Mexicans dedicated to the Tlaloque, gods of rain, as is
related by the interpreter of the Codex Magliabecchiano. Torquemada, too, 38 states that the Tlaxcaltecs
sacrificed many children to Xochiquetzal and to the mountain-gods (Tlaloque) evidently at this season.
Xochiquetzal was also connected with the festival of the atamalqualiztli, [194]celebrated every eight
years. In the picture of that feast in the Sahagun MS. we observe her seated at a loom. From these
considerations it is manifest that the verdurous and “watery” attributes of the goddess connected her
with the Tlaloque, but that she was not actually of their company.
TEMPLES
In Tlalhuica, not far from Cuernavaca or Quauhnauac, stands the pyramid of Xochicalco, one of the
most perfect specimens extant of Nahua architectural skill. There is reason to believe that Xochiquetzal
was originally the local deity of one of these mountains the waters from which irrigate the fields below, 39
and it seems probable that the teocalli of Xochicalco typified this eminence. We know that the teotlalpan,
or “Place of Divine Earth,” in the sacred precinct at Mexico, was sacred to Mixcoatl, a deity who was
perhaps of Otomi origin, and that it was probably symbolic of a mountain in the Otomi country of which
he was the presiding deity, so that the probability is borne out by analogy. In the country of the
Tlaxcaltecs stood the heights of Xochtecatl, “Goddess of the Flowery Land,” a mountain, according to
Torquemada, about six miles in circumference, which was the nucleus of a settlement, and was
surrounded by graves hewn out of the solid rock. This, perhaps, provides a fuller illustration of the theory
advanced above.
NATURE AND STATUS
The original home of Xochiquetzal seems to have been among the Tlalhuica and Tlaxcaltecs. But as the
latter were closely connected with the Mexicans racially, there is good reason to believe that she was
also an original member of their pantheon. In any case she had a place in the metropolitan calendar,
and the contention of the compilers of both interpretative codices, as well as of the native author of the
picture writings in the Historia de los Mexicanos por sus Pinturas, that she is to be equated with
Tonacaciuatl, the [195]female member of the creative pair, seems to have been a later development.
But Xochiquetzal is more especially the goddess of flowers, the female counterpart of Xochipilli-
Macuilxochitl. As has been mentioned, she was probably at first the goddess who presided over some
lofty mountain whose streams watered the sun-dried plains beneath and clothed them in abundant
florescence, perhaps that very mountain of Xochtecatl to which allusion has been made, and which
stood in Tlaxcaltec territory. As the “feminine” of Xochipilli, however, she certainly partook of his festive
and frivolous character, and thus presided over the song, the dance, and all sportive amusements. By a
further slight effort of imagination she came to be regarded as the goddess of illicit love, or of the
sensuous side of intercourse between the sexes, not so much a goddess of degraded animal passion,
like Tlazolteotl, as a figure bearing a close resemblance to the Apsarasas of Hindu myth, lovely and
voluptuous, and, like them, addicted to the game of throwing the dice (patolli). A further step established
her as the patron goddess of the prostitutes who existed for the pleasure of the unmarried warriors and
who resided with them in the great common house of the bachelors. From this circumstance arose the
obscene character of the feast of Quecholli among the Tlaxcaltecs and the Tepeilhuitl festival among the
Tlalhuica.
Xochiquetzal was also in some measure the patroness of pregnant women, according to the interpreter
of Codex Vaticanus A, and these worshipped and sacrificed to her in order that they should not give
birth to girls. She is herself figured in Codex Borgia as the great parturient, and in Codex Vaticanus B
(sheet 39) as has been indicated above.
She had also, like Xochipilli, an artistic significance, as the patroness of weavers and artists. She was
revered by the women who practised the former art, the invention of spinning and weaving was
attributed to her, and many kinds of craftsmen paid her honours. She had, moreover, a magical side to
her character; in the Aubin tonalamatl she is seated opposite the dancing wizard, and she is furthermore
one of [196]the Tzitzimimê, or deities of the darksome night, among whom she is symbolized by the
spider.
[Contents]
MACUILXOCHITL = “FIVE FLOWER,” OR XOCHIPILLI = “FLOWER PRINCE”
Area of Worship: Tehuacan, Cozcatlan, Teotitlan del Camino, Oaxaca, Mexico.

Minor Names:
Auia teotl = “God of Pleasure.”
Mazatl = “Deer.”
Auiatl = “The Jovial.”
Symbol: The sign five-flower.
Calendar Place:
Ruler of the eleventh day-sign, ozomatli.
Seventh of the thirteen day-lords.
Ruler of the twentieth day-count, xochitl.
Festival: The Xochilhuitl (“Feast of Flowers”), one of the movable feasts.
Compass Directions: South; West.
Relationship: Brother of Ixlilton; son of Piltzintecutli.
STONE FIGURE OF MACUILXOCHITL.
(In the Uhde Collection, Berlin.)
ASPECT AND INSIGNIA (as Macuilxochitl)
Codex Borgia.—Sheet 15: In this place the god wears as breast-ornament a human lower jaw, which,
combined with the green band to which it is tied up, may possibly express the day-count malinalli. He
has a large feather nape-ornament. The upper part of his face is white, with a dark band over the nose
and cheek, and white painting over the mouth, in the semblance of an outspread hand. He wears a cap
with vertically projecting bands painted in the colours of the green jewel chalchihuitl.
Sahagun MS.—Here he is represented with a white hand painted on his mouth and a feather crown
surmounted by a crest.
General.—Like the other gods of dance and sport, Macuilxochitl wears the four balls of the toualli
emblem on his shield and sometimes carries the staff with the heart. Like Ixtlilton, he had probably once
a bird’s-head mask, which in the course of his evolution degenerated into a feather crest and a wing
[197]on his back. The deterioration of this feature can be observed in the stone effigies of his counterpart
Xochipilli.
STONE FIGURE OF MACUILXOCHITL.
(In the Uhde Collection, Berlin.)
STATUES
A stone figure of Macuilxochitl found in Cuernavaca represents the god seated in a squatting attitude,
and it is evidently intended to show him as an onlooker at the ball-game. He wears a pointed headdress
or mitre, on the top of what would seem to be a cotton head-covering. A head of the god in stone is
included in the collection of the Natural History Museum at Vienna. In this the nose-plug is prominent
and he wears round earrings. The wing-ornament stands well out behind the head and the face seems
to look out of a bird helmet-mask, on both sides of which are large, circular holes, through which
feathers or cotton ear-plugs fall. The difficulty of working in stone has evidently restrained the sculptor
from representing the upper and lower portions of the bird’s beak, and the helmet-mask bears a strong
resemblance to that of Xochipilli in the Codex Magliabecchiano, if the beak in that representation were
removed. A statue of the god found in the Calle de las Escalerillas in Mexico City on December 13,
1900, is almost identical with the first of those two statues, and agrees with the second in that here we
have the circular holes at the side of the headdress with the dependent feathers or cotton plug. The best
known of the representations of this god, however, is the clay model found by Seler at Teotitlan del
Camino. It represents Macuilxochitl in a sitting position and is brilliantly coloured. The face of the god
looks out of a bird helmet-mask, highly conventionalized, and which has practically lost all its birdlike
characteristics. The two circular holes below the ear are, however, still represented. The upper part of
the face is painted yellow, but under each eye is an oblong patch painted in variegated colours, such as
appears on the faces of the gods of grain. Around the mouth is a large white patch, in which we may
see the white hand motif conventionalized. The body-paint is red and the garment white, except that
portion at the neck, which is blue. Small golden [198]bells adorn the necklace and wristlets. In this
statuette we have evidently a very late and highly developed figure of the deity, showing a considerable
departure from the earlier drawings and statues of him. In the Anthropological Museum at Berlin is a
stone statue of Macuilxochitl, also in a squatting attitude, in which the circular motif above the ear, with
its accompanying plug, is strongly in evidence. A number of stone statuettes of the god were found at
Tepeaca in the state of Puebla and are now housed in the Natural History Museum at Vienna. These do
not differ from the examples already described, save that in one of them the Greek fret-pattern takes the
place of the circular ear-plug motif. A stone figure of the god was found amid the ruins of the Castillo de
Teayo, a teocalli, or pyramid, in Vera Cruz. In this, which is also a squatting figure, the god is covered by
a mantle which is surmounted by the bird’s comb, as seen in Magliabecchiano and elsewhere. Around
the head are three of the circular holes above mentioned, one above each ear and one at the back of
the head, from which depend a double strip of cotton or other textile.
(From Codex Borgia, sheet 15.)

FORMS OF MACUILXOCHITL.
ASPECT AND INSIGNIA (as Xochipilli)
Codex Vaticanus B.—Sheet 26: In this MS. the god is painted a light yellow colour. His light hair is
bound with a jewelled strap ornamented on the frontal side with a conventional bird’s head. Round his
head he also wears the fillet of the Sun-god, ornamented with a feather tuft. As a breast ornament he
has a large gold disk suspended from a broad gold chain, hung with bells. His right hand clasps a
bundle of grass, and in his left he bears a staff embellished with turquoise mosaic and flowers, probably
intended for a rattle-stick. Above the twilight symbol of the west in the water are instruments of
mortification. On sheet 32 he is represented as of a blue colour with a jewelled chain in front of his
mouth.
Codex Fejérváry-Mayer.—The description of the god in this MS. is similar to that just given. In his hand
he supports [199]a dish with ornaments, a bangle for the upper arm, a feather tuft and a neck-chain.
Codex Borgia.—Sheet 13: In this codex he is seen seated on a royal throne. His body and the lower
part of his face are coloured red, the upper facial region is painted yellow, but contains a small,
rectangular field, half-red and half-white, while round the mouth is executed a butterfly design, after the
manner of Tonacatecutli and the maize-gods. His blue ear-plug has a jewelled thong dependent from it,
and his nose-plug is reproduced in the colours of the chalchihuitl jewel. On his head he wears the strap
decorated by two large jewelled disks. On the frontal side is the stereotyped bird-ornament, while from
the whole, four ends branch off. Surmounting this representation is the symbol of the night-sky, the
dusk-enveloped eye. His nape-ornament consists of red and white feathers blended together. On his
breast is a large disk of gold, secured by strings of greenstone beads. His loin-cloth is adorned with
jewelled disks, and to the back-bow is fastened a coxcoxtli bird’s head, which serves as a “mirror-tail,” or
back-mirror. A portion of the ends of his loin-cloth is coloured like the chalchihuitl jewel. In front of his
mouth is a flower from which two jewelled thongs project.
Codex Magliabecchiano.—The mantles worn by Xochipilli are alluded to in the MS. which accompanies
the paintings in this codex as “mantas de un selo señor o de Cinco Rosas y manta de Cinco Rosas”
(see sheets 5 and 6). There is also a picture of him on sheet 47. The figure on the red quemitl which he
wears is similar to that worn on sheet 20 of Codex Borbonicus by the god Cinteotl, and is, perhaps, a
butterfly motif.
(From the Sahagun MS.)

(From Codex Magliabecchiano, folio 35.)
FORMS OF XOCHIPILLI.
STATUES
Stone effigies of Xochipilli were set up in the tlachtli courts. In the Museo Naçional at Mexico there is a
stone statue of the god which represents him as sitting cross-legged, as if watching the ball-game. He
wears the mask of a player or dancer. By the aid of such statues of Xochipilli, which are [200]found in
considerable numbers all over the eastern Mexican slope, the transition from the bird-helmet to the
rudimentary crest may be studied. 40
POTTERY FIGURE OF XOCHIPILLI.
(Found at Teotlan del Camino.)
MYTH
The only mythical matter of importance concerning Macuilxochitl or Xochipilli is the nineteenth song in
the Sahagun collection, which is as follows 41:
Song of the God of Music and Games
Out of the place of flowers I come,

Priest of the Sunset, Lord of the Twilight.
I come even now, my granddam,

Thou of the thigh-skin face-painting,
Lady of the Sunset,
I, priest of the Sunset, Lord of the Twilight.
The god of evil omens,

The lord Tezcatlipocâ,
Shall answer to me, the Maize-god.
In the temple of the octli-god

The rabbit has come to life again.
It runs about.
By my god was it created.
I will bring down the fire-drill, fire will I twirl
On the mountain of Mixcoatl in Culhuacan.
Raising my voice, I strike the little mirror;

The little mirror has grown weak
In the temple of the octli-god.
The white hair grows moist,
Ripe has the octli become.
I will endeavour to elucidate the above strophes, the obscurity of which is apparent. The god declares
that he comes from Tamoanchan, the mythical paradise of flowers and vegetation in the west, and that
he is the priest of the sunset and lord of the twilight, both of which are characteristic of that region. He
invokes his mother, or grandmother, Tlazolteotl, by names with which her worshippers were familiar.
[201]He warns Tezcatlipocâ that he has the power to avert his evil omens, probably by means of
merriment and carousing. The rabbit was the Mexican symbol of intoxication by octli. This strophe
regarding it comes, as it were, from the worshipper, who states that his god Macuilxochitl or Xochipilli
has created or re-created the rabbit, or spirit of the octli beverage. Sahagun calls Xochipilli a god of fire,
and we know that he was associated with the sacrificial fire-drill, which was also the symbol of sexual
union and licence. Seler thinks that this song shows “the relation which exists between the pulque (octli)
gatherings, the deity of feasts and the fire-drill.” 42
Statues of Xochipilli in Museo Naçional, Mexico.

(From Codex Laud.)
FORMS OF XOCHIPILLI.
FESTIVALS
Xochilhuitl.—Of the feast of flowers over which this god presided Sahagun says: “The great folk made a
feast, dancing and singing in honour of this sign, decorating themselves with their feathers and all their
grandeur for the areyto. At this feast the king bestowed honours upon warriors, musicians, and
courtiers.” He states (Lib. II, Appendix c, xix): “They made each year in his honour a feast called
xochilhuitl.… During the four days which preceded this feast all those who were to take part in it, men as
well as women, observed a rigorous fast; and if during that period a man had commerce with a woman
or a woman with a man, they held that the fast was soiled; that the god held it for a high offence, and
that he would visit the offenders with maladies in their privy parts.… Before the feast everyone deprived
himself of the use of chilli pepper. They fed upon a kind of broth called tlalcuilolatolli, which is to say,
‘broth decorated with a flower in the middle.’… Those who fasted without the use of chilli or other
savoury things, ate only once a day at midday.” Those who did not fast ate fermented bread. The people
ornamented themselves with the symbols of the gods “as if they aspired to represent their images,” and
danced and sang to the sound of the drum. [202]
At midday they beheaded a great number of quails and made offerings of their blood before the image
of the god. They also pierced their ears in his presence. Others pierced the tongue with the spines of
the maguey, and passed through it a great number of osier reeds. Another ceremony consisted of
making five tamalli (cakes) of maize, which they called “fasting bread.” These were placed beneath an
arrow called xochimitl (“flower-dart”) and were offered to the idol as from the whole community. Those
who wished to make a separate offering gave the god five tamalli upon a wooden platter, and chilmolli
soup in a vase. Maize in all shapes and forms was also offered up. On the same day all the great folk in
Mexico who lived near the frontiers of an enemy brought the slaves whom they had captured to the
capital for sacrifice.
NATURE AND STATUS
This god appears to have had a highly developed cult among the peoples of Tehuacan, Cozcatlan, and
Teotitlan del Camino. He is primarily a god of flowers and food, that is of abundance, and as such he
equates with the god Cinteotl, with whom some of the sacred hymns even seem to confound him. But
there are strong reasons why he should not be wholly identified with Cinteotl, as Seler attempts to do,
and as the Mexicans certainly did not do, unless in later times. (See Cinteotl.) It may be, however, that
he was originally a god of vegetation, who later became more especially a god of flowers, the cult of
which was one particularly favoured by the people of Mexico. However this may be, there is no doubt
that the joyous and sportive side of the god developed at the expense of all others, and we find
Sahagun speaking of him under his two names as “the god of those who served for the amusement or
pastime of the great.” 43 He is, indeed, the god of merriment, of dance and sport, of the ball-game, the
jester or buffoon, and moreover presides over the gambling game of patolli, which he is seen patronizing
in the Magliabecchiano MS. According to Jacinto de la Serna, he is the [203]god of the great gamblers
who frittered away their substance. As the god of sport he is frequently represented by the ape, the
beast of mimicry and diversion.
But he had also a more worthy side, for to artists of all kinds, painters, weavers, and musicians in
especial, he stood as the patron of all artistic effort, and those engaged in it celebrated their worship of
him at the xochilhuitl festival. Several of the mantle designs in the Codex Magliabecchiano indicate that
as a flower-god he was not forgotten by the weavers’ caste.
He has associations with several other gods besides Cinteotl, especially with Ixtlilton (q.v.), who is
spoken of as his brother, and with the Ciuateteô, or deceased warrior women, probably because as a
food-god he was supposed to come from the west, the place of plenty, where they resided, or, more
likely, because of the hunger for earthly excitement displayed by these pleasure-starved dead women,
debarred from the sensuous delights of earth. His connection with the octli-gods as the god of
merriment and abundance of victuals and festive good things is plain; and he is very naturally the male
counterpart of the goddess Xochiquetzal (q.v.). As hailing from a locality where planetary mythology was
in an advanced condition, and where the worship of the morning star was practised, he may have had
an astronomic significance, but what this was precisely is by no means clear. We probably assess his
nature correctly if we allude to him as a god of pleasure, feast, and frivolity.
[Contents]
XIPE TOTEC = “OUR LORD THE FLAYED”
Area of Worship: Plateau of Anahuac, Zapotecs, Yopis.

Minor Names:
Tlaltecutli = “Lord of the Earth.”
Anauatl yteuc = “Lord of the Seaboard.”
Tlatauhqui Tezcatlipocâ = “The Red Tezcatlipocâ.”
Itztapaltotec = “Our Lord of the Flat Stone.”
Youallauan = “Night Drinker.”
Symbol: In Codex Borgia a quail with its head torn off seems symbolical of this god. [204]
Calendar Place: Lord of the fifteenth day, quauhtli, and of the fourteenth week, ce itzcuintli; with
the Fire-god, lord of the twentieth tonalamatl division, ce tochtli.
Festival: Tlacaxipeuliztli.
Compass Direction: West.

(From the Sahagun MS., Bib. Laurenziana.)
FORMS OF XIPE.
ASPECT AND INSIGNIA
Codex Vaticanus B.—Sheet 92: Xipe is depicted in this codex as clothed in the flayed skin of the
sacrificed human victim, which, after the dreadful rite, was drawn over the priest’s body and worn for a
number of days. The slit eyes of the mask he wears shows that this also is composed of human skin. He
wears a nasal rod and plate having the general appearance of the peculiar peaked cap with which he is
sometimes represented. The ends of his loin-cloth are slit and coloured white and red. Sheet 62. As
ruler of the fourteenth tonalamatl division and god of the fifteenth day-count, Xipe is represented on this
sheet as a red Tezcatlipocâ. The limbless body is red, the costume of the same colour, but with a face-
mask of yellow, tinted to represent dead human flesh, with the chapfallen jaw of the dead, narrow slit
eyes, as on sheet 92, and a red streak running over the eye, the full length of the face, indicative,
perhaps, of the place where the operation of flaying was commenced. Here the nose-cap is also
reminiscent of Xipe’s peculiar peaked cap, its ends especially resembling those of that headdress. Two
red and white bands, the colours of the roseate spoonbill, depend from the ear. The hair is bound by a
fillet on which are twin ornaments of dull gold, and above this rise two rows of quetzal feathers.
Codex Vaticanus A.—Plate xiv, Duc de Loubat’s reproduction: As a back-device he wears the three
banners which are also shown of him in the picture in Duran’s collection. As god of the fourteenth
tonalamatl division, he holds a shield, banner, and a bundle of spears, while half of his shield is painted
in dark and light red rings.
Codex Borgia.—Sheet 49: In the Codex Borgia, Xipe is shown in his character of the patron god of the
warrior’s death by combat, or the stone of sacrifice. He wears a [205]wig made from the downy feathers
of the eagle, which, however, does not altogether conceal his flame-coloured hair, two forelocks of
which recall the hairdressing of Tlauizcalpantecutli, the god of the planet Venus. Underneath is shown
his small petticoat or apron of green zapote leaves. From his mouth protrudes a double-jewelled string,
which, perhaps, signifies the fertilizing rain, for as god of human sacrifice he has a connection with the
gods of fertility. He is similarly represented on sheet 25, where he is also shown as ruler of the
fourteenth tonalamatl division, and the picture indeed bears a close resemblance to that in Codex
Vaticanus B, except that his breast-ornament, carved from a snail-shell, is attached to his variegated
feather necklace. In this place he also wears a feather wig with a red crest made of the plumes of the
roseate spoonbill, alternating with chalchihuitls on leather and the heads of rattle-sticks.
(Front.) (Back.)
STONE IMAGE OF XIPE.
Image of Xipe found at Castillo de Teayo, showing him dressed in the skin of the sacrificed victim.
Codex Borgia Group Generally.—In this group generally Xipe stands as the representative of the sign of
the day quauhtli. His insignia are the same as those of the red Tezcatlipocâ, with striped face-painting,
but executed in red and yellow without the human skin, or other special characteristics, and decorated
only with the warrior’s headdress and Tezcatlipocâ’s ring-shaped breast-ornament. The head and neck
are covered with cloth, on which are stuck downy feather-balls. He holds in some places a severed arm,
which he appears to be smelling or about to devour.
Codex Borbonicus.—In this codex Xipe is represented as Tezcatlipocâ, and has the face-painting of the
red phase of that god, with the smoking mirror at his temple, the characteristic white ring, and the
peculiar form of feather back-ornament, which is to be seen in some other Tezcatlipocâ pictures of this
codex. But he wears on his head-fillet, instead of jewelled disks, an ornament of beaten gold, the crown
of roseate spoonbill feathers, the ends of the bands shaped in swallow-tailed fashion, and other insignia
pertaining to his own regular dress. The quetzalcomitl on his back carries a banner painted in light and
dark red, his especial colours, and he also bears a shield painted in light and dark red concentric
[206]circles. In this codex he holds a fire-pan, painted with large patches of rubber gum, in which is
inserted the rattle-stick with Xipe’s bands and loops coloured red and white, or light red and dark red
with bifurcated ends.
Vienna Codex.—Xipe is represented here in the flayed human skin and designated by the date “Seven
Rain.”
Codex Nuttall (Zouche).—Sheet 83: In this codex there is a good representation of the god, especially
as regards his headdress. He is depicted as the warrior secured to the stone of combat, whose eye
sheds tears at the thought of approaching death, and he bears in his hands the bâtons with which the
military victims defended themselves against their adversaries (see Festival).
Sahagun MS.—This describes him as having a brown face covered with the feathers of the quail, and
with open lips (chapfallen jaw?). His crown has parted ends, and he wears a wig of curled feathers. He
has golden ear-plugs. Round the hips he has a woman’s short skirt of zapote leaves, and shells
decorate his feet. His shield is red, with concentric circles, and he carries a rattle-staff.
MASKS, VASES, ETC.
The well-known mask of Xipe in the British Museum represents the mask of the sacrificed victim. On the
back or inside, the carving of the god shows him wearing his full insignia, with the peculiar headdress
and rattle-staff. Another mask of Xipe in the Bauer collection is of a most individual character. It was
found near Tezcuco, and bears both wind and serpent symbols. On a stone at Cuernavaca is incised a
good representation of the shield, darts, and flag of Xipe, with date ce ocelotl (“one ocelot”). On a cup in
the Aldana collection Xipe is seen wearing the flayed skin, with a necklace, evidently of intestines. His
hair is dressed in a manner resembling that affected by the warrior caste, and he carries the rattle-staff.
STATUES
Representations of Xipe in statuary are considerably numerous. Several found in the Valley of Mexico
are housed [207]in the Uhde collection, Berlin. Two of these represent the god as wearing the victim’s
flayed skin and one of them is pitted with marks, evidently indicative of blood-spots. The crown with
feathers of the roseate spoonbill is well exemplified in one of these, but in the other a mitre-like
headdress superimposed upon a circular crown, from which depend large ribbons or paper ornaments,
is noticeable. In another of these figures the headdress is a sort of barret-cap with knobs or studs. Still
another figure of the same class shows the god with a very large stepped nose-ornament. All carry a
rattle-staff and three bear a shield. A most striking statue of Xipe was discovered at the Castillo de
Teayo site, at Vera Cruz. The head, which is round and bullet-shaped, bears an extraordinary
resemblance to that of the well-known Egyptian figure of the Sheik-el-Beled in the Boulaq Museum. In
this statue the god wears the skin of the victim, and the manner in which it was tied on to the priest is
well illustrated by the knotting at the back. The faces, of course, are masks of the sacrificed victim.
ELEMENTS OF XIPE’S INSIGNIA
Although Xipe is so frequently portrayed as possessing the outward characteristics of a red

Tezcatlipocâ, few of the Mexican deities possess insignia so individual, or so rich in manifold elements.
The Xipe dress was a favourite one with Mexican kings and military chieftains, and, in the Codex
Vaticanus A, King Motecuhzoma II is represented as wearing the costume on the occasion of his victory
over Toluca. Tezozomoc also states that Axayacatl wore this dress, 44 and on the eve of a fierce
engagement Tlacauepan, brother of Motecuhzoma, donned it at the latter’s special request. The
elements of Xipe’s costume are as follows 45:
(1) The painted crown of feathers of the roseate spoonbill, with bifurcated ends.
(2) The gilded timbrel. [208]
(3) The jacket of spoonbill feathers.
(4) The petticoat or apron of zapote leaves, overlapping each other like tiles.
(5) The jaguar or ocelot-skin scabbard.
(6) The round shield covered with red spoonbill feathers, showing concentric circles of darker tints,
sometimes noticeably bisected, one-half of which is again subdivided obliquely into a smaller upper
portion containing a chalchihuitl on a blue field, and a larger lower portion, covered with jaguar or ocelot-
skin.
Xipe’s dress has three forms:
(1) That of the red god, of the colour of the roseate spoonbill.
(2) That of the blue god, of the colour of the blue cotinga.
(3) As a jaguar or ocelot.

Pottery figure. (Valley of
(From the Sahagun MS.) Pottery Figure found near Tezcuco. Mexico.)
FORMS OF XIPE.
MYTHS
The interpreter of Codex Vaticanus A says of Xipe: “Amongst those who began to follow the example of
Quetzalcoatl and his austerities by their own acts of penance, Totec is very famous, who, on account of
his having been a great sinner, first stood in the house of sorrow called Tlaxipuchicalco, where, having
completed his penance, he ascended the mountain Catcitepulz (‘the mountain which speaks’), which
mountain was covered with thorns. There continuing his penance, he cried from thence very strongly,
reproving his people of Tulan, calling to them to come and do penance with him for the enormous guilt
which they had incurred in forgetting the services and sacrifices of their gods and having abandoned
themselves so much to pleasure. They say that Totec was accustomed to go about clothed in a human
skin and so it has been the custom till those times. In the festivals, likewise, which they celebrated to
Totec, men clothed themselves in the skins of those whom they had slain in war and in this manner
danced and celebrated the festival of the sign dedicated to him (for from him, they say, wars originated),
and accordingly they paint him with these insignia, viz. a [209]lance, banner, and shield. They hold him in
the utmost veneration, for they say that he was the first who opened to them the way to heaven; for they
were under this error amongst others; they supposed that only those who died in war went to heaven,
as we have already said. Whilst Totec still continued doing penance, preaching and crying from the top
of the mountain which has been named, they pretend that he dreamed this night that he beheld a
horrible figure with its bowels protruding, which was the cause of the great abomination of his people.
On this, praying to his god to reveal to him what the figure signified, he answered that it was the sin of
his people, and that he should issue an order to the people, and cause them all to be assembled,
charging them to bring thick ropes, and to bind that miserable spectre, as it was the cause of all their
sins, and that, dragging it away, they should remove it from the people, who, giving faith to the words of
Totec, were by him conducted to a certain wild place, where they found the figure of death, which,
having bound, they dragged it to a distance, and drawing it backwards, they fell all into a cavity between
the two mountains, which closed together, and there they have remained buried ever since; none of
them having effected their escape, with the exception of the innocent children who remained in Tulan.”
A few lines farther on the interpreter says: “The two masters of penance were Quetzalcoatle and Totec,
who was called by another name, Chipe; who, having taken the children and the innocent people who
remained in Tulan, proceeded with them, peopling the world, and collecting along with them other
people whom they chanced to find. They further add that, journeying in this manner with these people,
they arrived at a certain mountain, which not being able to pass, they feign that they bored a
subterranean way through it and so passed. Others say that they remained shut up and that they were
transformed into stones, and other such fables.”
The first part of this myth is, of course, merely ætiological of the practice of making vows to Xipe to
capture and immolate [210]an enemy in his honour, as, we shall see in the paragraph dealing with his
festivals, was done on that occasion. But I would point out that it possesses some importance as
providing further evidence regarding the existence of the ascetic life in Mexico, most of the myths
dealing with which, like that under discussion, are connected with the Toltecs, the people of
Quetzalcoatl. Xipe, who plays the part of the Toltec Jeremiah, is here the subject of a tale which is also
recounted of Tezcatlipocâ, with whom he is frequently confounded or identified, perhaps because both
were great gods of the sacrificial stone, or for the reason that practically all Mexican cults tended to
gravitate towards Tezcatlipocâ in late times.
That portion of the story which details the burial en masse of the Toltecs is, of course, the widespread
tale of the disappearance of the old hero-race underground—the fate which overtook Charlemagne and
his peers, King Arthur and “the auld Picts” at Arthur’s Seat, near Edinburgh, Barbarossa and his men,
and many another group of paladins. The whole may allude, in the ultimate, to mound-burial. It is
strange too—or quite natural, as we believe in, or doubt, the penetration of America by alien influences
—to find in Mexico an incomplete variant of the legend of the Pied Piper of Hamelin. I should not be
surprised to find that Xipe piped the Toltec children into the Underworld, for Tezcatlipocâ, with whom he
was identified, or at least the captive who represented that god at the Toxcatl festival, and who had a
year of merriment in which to prepare himself for his fate, went through the city at intervals, playing upon
a flute. This almost universal myth may allude to the ancient belief that the souls of the dead travelled
with the wind, and were the cause of its sighing and whistling. 46 We know, too, that the whistling of the
night wind through the mountains was regarded by the Mexicans as of evil omen, and that Yoalli Eecatl
(The Wind of Night) was one of the names of Tezcatlipocâ. 47 [211]
The following song from the Sahagun MS. is in celebration of Xipe:
Wherefore dost thou disguise thyself, O Night-drinker?

Put on thy golden garment.
O my god, thy rich sacrificial water descended;

The lofty cypress tree has become a quetzal;
That which was a serpent has become a quetzal.
The fire-serpent, the famine, has left me.
It may be that I shall go thence to perish,

I, the young maize-plant.
My heart is like a chalchihuitl;
But I shall yet see gold in that place.
I shall be satisfied when I can say
The warrior chief is born.
Let the maize be ready in abundance, O my god.

I look towards thy mountain, I, who worship thee.
I will be satisfied
When the maize ripens,
When the warrior chief is born.
I believe the god to have been called “Night-drinker” from the circumstance that, in the belief of certain
barbarous peoples, vegetation is more greatly assisted in its growth by night than by day, that it “drinks,”
or is saturated by, the mists and vapours of the night season, which are believed to emanate from the
moon. 48 Indeed, dew is believed to be caused by the moon, 49 which is regarded as the great source of
all moisture, as the sun is the great source of all heat. 50
Xipe is here entreated by the young maize-plant to don his golden garment, the rain, as, indeed, one
translation of this song states it to be, taking a reasonable liberty with the original. When the rain comes
the cypress glitters like a quetzal-feather, a Mexican euphuism for a glittering gem, or anything very
precious. The xiuhcoatl, or fire-serpent, is the terrible weapon of Uitzilopochtli, with which he slew his
rebellious brothers and sister, the enemies of his mother Coatlicue, [212]as Indra slew those of his
mother, both of these events occurring immediately after the birth of the gods thus compared. (In the
case of Indra the weapon was a thunderbolt.) The fire-serpent in this place evidently symbolizes the
scorching, torrid heat which brings about famine. If the rain continues not, the maize-plant, the young
heart of which is green as jadeite, and from which the golden maize will emerge later, may perish.
Finally the worshipper (?) states that he will remain unsatisfied until the plumed and full-grown plant,
symbolic of the warrior and all that he fights for, has come to fruition.
My reading of this song differs considerably from those of other authorities, but I may, perhaps, be
pardoned if I say that I prefer my own elucidation as at least more circumstantial and more in line with
the facts of Mexican belief.
FESTIVAL
Tlacaxipeuliztli.—The best description of this festival is that of Sahagun (bk. ii, c. xxi) who tells us that on
the last day of the month of that name the Mexicans celebrated a solemn festival to Xipe and
Uitzilopochtli. On the afternoon of the day prior to that on which the feast was to take place they held a
solemn areyto, or dance, and they watched all the night in the temple called calpulco 51 with those who
were to be sacrificed on the morrow. They shaved the hair from the tops of their heads, at the same time
drawing blood from their own ears to offer to the gods. When daybreak had come, they conducted the
captives to the temple of Uitzilopochtli, where they were sacrificed and flayed, from which circumstance
the feast took its name. Many of the victims were called Xipeme or Tototectin (plurals of the god’s
name). The masters of the captives, or those who had captured them in war, formally handed them over
to the priests at the foot of the teocalli, and these took them by the hair of the head to make them mount
the steps more quickly. If they refused to walk to the stone of sacrifice they were dragged thence. When
their hearts had been withdrawn they were offered [213]up to the gods, and the body cast down the steps
of the teocalli, where other priests received it for flaying. The hearts of the unfortunates thus slaughtered
were thrown into a tub of wood and took the name of quanochtli, or “nopal wood,” of which the tubs
were made.
The flaying process was undertaken by a caste of elderly and probably inferior priests, the
quaquacuilton. 52 Before the bodies of the sacrificed were so treated they were carried to the temple,
where the “master” of the captive had made his vow to capture and consecrate a victim to the god. The
body was broken up at this place, and a leg was dispatched to court for the table of the king, the
remainder being divided among the great, or the master’s parents. The dreadful repast was usually
partaken of in the house of him who had taken the captive prisoner in war. They cooked the flesh with
maize and gave a little to each in a small porringer. The dish was called tlacatlaolli, or “man and maize.”
After having eaten, the feasters became intoxicated on octli. On the following day, having watched all
the night, they went to amuse themselves by examining the other captives, and in watching them being
baited on the stone of combat. These latter were known as uauantin, “the pierced,” with reference to the
wounds they received. 53
Before the sacrificial rites took place the captors of the victims gathered together, and when the victims
had been dispatched the captors, or certain priests (it is not clear which), drew on the skins of the flayed
victims, and took up positions on hillocks of hay or heaps of chalk or rubbish. Others approached them,
and defied them to combat by words and pinches. A skirmish ensued, and those who were captured did
not escape scot-free, being rather roughly handled. This mock combat over, the real business of the day
began in terrible earnest. The wretched captive [214]was secured by one ankle to the temalacatl, or
stone of combat, and wooden bâtons on which eagle-down had been stuck, in imitation of a maquahuitl,
or obsidian-edged sword, were placed in his hands. Four warriors now came against the victim, two of
the ocelotl corps of knights and two of the quauhtli or Eagle Corps, and having raised their shields and
weapons to the sun, one of them attacked the captive tied to the stone. If he defended himself with
address, two or even three of his opponents attacked him, and if he still made good his resistance, all
four fell upon him, “intermingling their blows with dances and numerous poses.”
Prior to the combat a solemn procession was formed to the temalacatl. A body of priests, dressed in the
insignia of one or other of the gods in whose honour the festival was held, issued from the yopico (“in
Yopi land”), the temple of Xipe, followed by the tecutlis, or knights, already alluded to, who flourished
their weapons and made a martial show. Arrived at the temalacatl, they marched round it, and seated
themselves on carven stools called quecholicpalli (“perch of the strong bird”). The priest who took
charge of the proceedings was called Youallauan (Night-drinker), one of the names of the god, and
when all were seated, an orchestra of trumpets, flutes, and conch-shells struck up, mingled with
whistling and singing. The performers wore on their shoulders streamers of white feathers mounted on
long staves, which, as we have seen, was part of the Xipe dress, and sat between the priests and the
stone of combat.
When the frightful overture had concluded, a captive was placed on the stone by the person who
devoted him to sacrifice, and a beaker of octli was given him to hearten him to fight well. This he
presented to the four points of the compass, and then sucked its contents through a reed. A priest then
took up his stand in front of the doomed man, and holding a living quail before him as before a god, tore
off its head. Another priest clad in a bear-skin secured the captive to the stone and handed him his
weapons, and then his captor danced before him, as before a divinity. The combat then took place, and
in the unusual event of a victim [215]overcoming the four well-appointed warriors who opposed him, a
fifth, who must be a left-handed man, rushed in, raised the exhausted victor in his arms and threw him to
the ground, where he was dispatched by the Youallauan.
The victim’s heart was then thrown into the wooden tub before alluded to, after it had been held up to
the sun. Another priest now took a hollow reed and introduced it into the opening from which the heart
had been removed. Having drawn off a sufficient quantity of blood, he went to offer it up to the sun. The
master of the captive who had been slain then filled a bowl with the blood of his victim, which vessel was
gaily decorated with feathers and which contained a tube, similarly ornamented. With this he went the
round of the temples, smearing the blood upon the lips of the idols with the feathered tube. He next
divested himself of the gay feather cloak he wore for the occasion and carried the flayed corpse of his
captive, or what remained of it, to his house, after royal and other requirements had been met. As has
been said, he feasted his family and friends on the body, but did not himself partake of it, as he was
regarded as the ritual father of the deceased. “The skin of a victim also belonged to his captor, and this
he gave to those who dressed themselves in skins (in consequence of a vow), and so attired, paraded
the streets of the town. Others wore the heads of wolves.” 54
“When the captive had been slain, all who were present, priests, warriors and others, began to dance
the areyto round the temalacatl, the captors of the victims carrying the heads of the slain. This areyto, or
dance, was called motzontecomaitotia (dance with decapitated heads). The cuitlachueue (old jackal 55),
godfather of the captives, took in his hands the cords which had held them to the temalacatl and raised
them to the four cardinal points in sign of adoration. After that ‘he groaned, he wept for the dead.’
“The foreigners with whom Motecuhzoma was at war [216]came to assist secretly at the spectacle. These
were the men of Uexotzinco, Tlaxcallan and Nonoualco, Cempoallan, and many other places. The
Mexicans pretended not to see them, and they were thus able to behold the fate reserved for captives in
Mexico. When all was over, everyone ate a tortilla called uilocpalli, or pigeon-seat, a kind of little paté
made with uncooked maize. Next day everyone assisted at an areyto of great solemnity, which was
commenced in the royal palace. All were dressed in their best and carried tamallis and tortillas of
roasted maize, called momochtli, which they wore instead of collars and garlands. They carried also red
feathers and stalks of maize. The areyto ceased at midday, and the nobles ranged themselves three
and three in the royal palaces. The king appeared, having upon his right the King of Tezcuco and on his
left the Lord of Tacuba. A solemn dance then took place, which lasted until the sun went down, after
which they commenced another dance, in which everyone took hands and danced in a serpentine
figure. The old soldiers and recruits came to this dance, bringing with them female partners and even
public women. This lasted also on the place where the captives had been slain till nearly midnight, and
they continued to celebrate these feasts for nearly twenty days, until they had arrived at the kalends of
the month which they called tozoztontli.”
Twenty days after the festival those who wore the skins of the slain removed them, but it would seem,
from what Sahagun says, that certain devotees wore these from the festival of tlacaxipeuliztli at the end
of that month to the beginning of the following tlacaxipeuliztli. Persons afflicted with skin diseases or
weak sight frequently made a vow to be present at this ceremony. The devotees then performed
ceremonial ablutions in a bath in the temple, in which water was mixed with maize flour, or, more strictly
speaking, they were bathed by others. They then shampooed their heads and did penance for the death
of the captive. After this the captor erected a tripod in the court of his house, on the top of which was a
petlatl, or mat rolled into a ball, on which he placed [217]all the paper ornaments which the captive had
worn at his sacrifice. “He then chose a courageous young man who wore those papers, and who took a
shield in one hand and a cudgel in the other, and went through the streets as if looking for an evil-doer.
Everyone was afraid, and cried, ‘Behold the telzompac (noble one) comes!’ If he caught anyone he took
his mantle, and all the spoil he took he brought back to the captor. The captor then placed in the middle
of the court of his house a joist in the form of a column, which indicated that he had made captives in
war, and which was the blazon of his honour. Then he took the thigh-bone of the captive, ornamented it
with the papers, and attached it to the top of the column in his courtyard. He then invited his parents,
friends, and the men of his quarter, in presence of whom he hung the bone up, and then he gave them
to eat and drink. Family songs were sung. All these things were done in the twenty days before they
arrived at the uei tozoztli.
The goldsmiths, of whose caste Xipe was the patron, probably because the yellow human skin in which
he was represented as being clad typified an overlay of gold-foil, held a festival during tlacaxipeuliztli in
the yopico temple sacred to the god, sacrificing and burning victims to him, and covering a human
representative of him with ornaments and precious stones, a crown of feathers, golden necklaces and
earrings, and scarlet sandals. They then placed him upon a throne and offered him the first fruits and
flowers of the season, together with bunches of maize-seed.
The mode of sacrifice by shooting to death with darts or arrows was employed in connection with Xipe
as well as in the case of Tlazolteotl (q.v.). A captive was secured to a scaffold and shot with darts, so
that his blood might fall upon the ground. This usage may be regarded as of the nature of sympathetic
magic to secure rainfall.
TEMPLES
At least three buildings were erected to the honour of Xipe at Mexico. 56 The first of these, known as
yopico (“in Yopi [218]land”), has already been alluded to, and was probably the principal place connected
with his worship. It was at this temple that the ceremonies of the tlacaxipeuliztli festival took place. The
second, called yopico calmecac, appears to have been situated in the quarter of Tlatelolco, and, as its
name implies, was evidently a monastery or place of instruction. At another edifice, the yopoci
tzompantli, the heads of the victims slain at the festival of the god were exhibited. In front of the first of
these stood the temalacatl, the stone to which the captives were secured when they fought with the
Mexican warriors before they were finally sacrificed.
PRIESTHOOD
The Xipe yopico teohua, or priesthood dedicated to the service of Xipe, is enumerated among the
various classes of priests charged with the service of the gods, 57 and held in their keeping Xipe’s
insignia and the accessories for his festival. They resided in the yopico calmecac or monastery.
NATURE AND STATUS
Xipe is pre-eminently a god of seed-time and planting. 58 He is the Tlaltecutli, or “Lord of the Earth,” and
in a secondary sense, the god of the warrior’s death on the stone of combat, because of the association
between the food-supply and military service for the purpose of gaining captives. There can be no
question that Xipe was of Zapotec origin; indeed, that is manifest from the name of his temple, Yopico,
which means the “land of the Yopi” or Tlappeneca, a people of Zapotec affinities, and his cap was
known as yopitzontli, “the Yopi head.” One of his names was Anauatl itecu, or “Lord of the Coastland,”
and we know from Herrera 59 that he was especially worshipped in the district of Teotitlan, [219]which
commands the road to Tabasco. Both Sahagun and the interpreter of Codex Vaticanus A uphold his
alien origin.
Just as the Egyptian priests of Ammon at Thebes once a year killed a ram, flayed it, and clothed the
image of their god in the skin, just as the Celtic priest wore the skin of a bull at certain festivals, so the
Mexicans slew and flayed a man, in whose skin they clothed their priests and those who desired to be
closely associated with the god. The idea underlying this practice would appear to be the renewal of the
life of the deity. It seems to have some bearing on the phenomena of the system known as “totemism,”
regarding the real significance of which we know so little, despite the seeming erudition which has of
late years been lavished upon its consideration, for, as we have seen, the captor of the slain victim was
not permitted to eat of his flesh, although that may only have been taboo to him because he stood to the
doomed man in the relation of a sponsor. Xipe represents the earth “flayed,” that is bare, and ready for
sowing. The flaying of the captive and the dressing of the god’s representative in the skin may have
been of the nature of sympathetic magic, as a suggestion to the earth to rehabilitate itself in its covering
of yellow maize.
It is precisely the agricultural god whom in Mexico we must expect to find clothed in all the attributes of
the warrior, and truly Xipe does not disappoint us in this respect. He is armed cap-à-pie, and his dress
was the favourite harness of Mexican royalty when it went forth to battle, as witness the Spartan
suggestion of Motecuhzoma to his brother on the eve of a great combat. 60 The Codex Vaticanus A calls
him “il guerreggiatore attristato.” Thus at his feast the sacrifice takes the form of a combat. Indeed, he
represents the warrior caste, by the efforts of whom the altars of Mexico were supplied with human
victims, and the maize-crop was consequently secured.
Xipe is in some measure associated with that sacred bird [220]the quail, which has been connected with
sacrifice in many lands. This bird frequently takes refuge in the last sheaves of grain in a harvest-field,
and thus, perhaps, came to symbolize the corn-spirit driven from its last stronghold. In Normandy in the
harvest-field the reapers pretend to catch a quail and dispatch it. 61 The quail was sacrificed to the Tyrian
Baal, 62 and is associated by Robertson Smith with the god Eshmun-Iolaos. 63 The bird-like character of
Xipe’s dress may assist us in the belief that he was partially evolved from some bird of the quail species
commonly found in the maize-field. He bears a strong resemblance to the Maya god F.
Xipe was probably a maize-god of the Yopi who came to partake of the character of an Aztec grain-and-
sacrifice deity, his own type of immolation, the shooting by arrows, being partially superseded by the
warrior’s death upon the temalacatl. It would seem that, as the god of a people of Nahua race, but older
in their occupation of the land than the Aztecâ and Chichimecs, he probably took much the same line of
development after his worshippers settled in the Yopi country as Tezcatlipocâ and Uitzilopochtli took in a
more northern environment, that the resemblance was recognized by the Aztecâ (as is shown by his
affinity with Tezcatlipocâ, with whom, indeed, he is identified as Tlatlauhqui Tezcatlipocâ, or “the Red
Tezcatlipocâ”), and that under their guidance his festival took a similar form to that of the gods in
question. His festival is certainly a mytho-dramatic performance explanatory of the preparation of the
earth for the sowing of grain, the soil being rehabilitated by the death of the captive warrior. [221]
[Contents]
XILONEN = “YOUNG MAIZE MOTHER”
Area of Worship: Originally Huichol tribes; later, Valley of Anahuac.

Festival: Uei tecuilhuitl, in the eighth month.
ASPECT AND INSIGNIA
Sahagun MS. (Biblioteca del Palacio).—The face is painted half red, half yellow, and the goddess wears
a crown of paper decorated with quetzal-feathers. Her collar is of green precious stones and her
overdress is “the colour of spring flowers” (red). Her skirt is of the same hue. She wears sandals, and
carries a shield with horizontal lines. In her hand she holds a red rattle-board.
FESTIVAL
The Uei tecuilhuitl.—The festival to Xilonen was the uei tecuilhuitl, or “great festival of the chiefs,” which
lasted eight days and was celebrated when the maize-plant had almost reached maturity. Our chief
authorities for its events are Sahagun 64 and Torquemada. 65 The former states that at this period of the
year (June–July) the women wore their hair unbound, in order that the maize might be prompted to grow
in equal luxuriance. During the days of the festival such persons as visited the temple were permitted to
drink abundantly of chian pinolli (a beverage manufactured from the seed of the chian tree, mingled with
maize-flour and aloe honey) and as much maize-porridge as could be grasped in the hand, to symbolize
the plenty which would follow the ripening of the grain. The food thus supplied was the gift of the chiefs,
from which circumstance the festival took its name. Dancing commenced each night at sunset, and was
accompanied by singing, the scene being illuminated by the glare from burning pine-torches.
The dancer around whom interest chiefly centred was the xalaquia (“she who is clothed with the soil”), a
slave girl who represented the goddess, wearing her red face-paint, [222]large square headdress and
variegated raiment. She was constantly guarded by three old women called her “mothers,” and was
sedulously instructed in the dancing-school for the part she had to play. In all likelihood she was kept in
complete ignorance of her impending fate. Day after day she danced, surrounded by the women of the
community, who shook their long hair, and it was believed that the maize-crop would be vigorous or the
reverse as her terpsichorean exertions were spirited or listless. On the last day of the rites, the
priestesses of the Maize-goddess, attired in her insignia, gathered together in the teopan, or temple-
precinct, and accompanied the victim in a performance which lasted throughout the night. When day
broke, the chief nobles and warriors of Mexico joined the women and danced a solemn areyto, the men
dancing in front and the women behind them. In this manner they danced to the foot of the teocalli of the
goddess, which they ascended, the victim being carried on the back of one of the priests, after the
manner of a bride being borne to her husband’s house. Arrived at the summit, she was decapitated and
her heart offered to the goddess. Until she was sacrificed no one might eat of the new maize, lest it
should fail to ripen.
ITZPAPALOTL.
(From Codex Borbonicus, sheet 15.)

ITZPAPALOTL.
(From Codex Telleriano-Remensis, sheet 18, Verso.)
PRIESTHOOD
The Cinteotzin (Lord of Maize), says Sahagun, had charge of affairs at the festival of Xilonen (see
Cinteotl).
NATURE AND STATUS
Xilonen appears to be nothing more than a deification of the young, tender ear of the maize-plant. Her
name, the season at which her rites took place and the youth of the xalaquia who represented her would
seem to bear this out. She was originally a goddess of the Huichol tribes, and, by some circumstance of
evolution or imagery, came to symbolize for the Nahua the maize in the earlier stages of its ripeness,
thus to some extent resembling Cinteotl. Payne and also Seler in some places seem to confound her
festival [223]with that of Chicomecoatl, and offer no reasons for thus traversing the statements of the
older authorities, which are definite enough and which in this instance I prefer to follow.

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Textbook Capture Recapture Methods For The Social and Medical Sciences 1St Edition Dankmar Bohning Ebook All Chapter PDF

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Capture-recapture methods for the

social and medical sciences 1st Edition

Qualitative research methods for the social sciences

Advanced Research Methods For The Social And Behavioral

Multilevel Network Analysis for the Social Sciences

Evidential Pluralism in the Social Sciences Philosophy

Medical Sciences Naish

Cybersecurity In Humanities And Social Sciences: A

The Reviewer s Guide to Quantitative Methods in the

Medical Sciences Jeannette Naish

© 2018 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

No claim to original U.S. Government works

Printed on acid-free paper

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4987-4531-4 (Hardback)

Foreword by Byron J.T. Morgan xvii

List of Figures xxi

List of Tables xxv

II Ratio Regression Models 19

3 The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution and capture-recapture count

4.6 Application to estimate the burden of dengue fever . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

5 A ratio regression approach to estimate the size of the Salmonella-

III Meta-Analysis in Capture-Recapture 79

7 A case study on maritime accidents using meta-analysis in capture-

8 A meta-analytic generalization of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator for

IV Extensions of Single Source Models 107

9.2.1 Initial values for θ search . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

10 Convex estimation 121

11 Non-parametric estimation of the population size using the empirical

12 Extending the truncated Poisson regression model to a time-at-risk

12.2 The models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

V Multiple Sources 211

15.3.1 Two registers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

16 Population size estimation in CRC models with continuous covariates 229

17 Trimmed dual system estimation 237

18 Estimation of non-registered usual residents in the Netherlands 259

VI Latent Variable Models 275

20 Latent class: Rasch models and marginal extensions 291

21 Performance of hierarchical log-linear models for a heterogeneous popu-

22 A multidimensional Rasch model for multiple system estimation 315

22.3.2 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318

VII Bayesian Approaches 361

25 Bayesian population size estimation with censored counts 371

VIII Miscellaneous Topics 387

The production of socio-economic statistics is undergoing a paradigm shift. ... A case

Byron J. T. Morgan, FLSW

Dankmar Böhning, Southampton

1.1 Golf tees in St. Andrews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3.1 Applications: Distributions and (weighted and unweighted) ratio regression

4.1 Ratio plot for the dengue fever data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

7.1 Costa Concordia accident . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

8.1 Mark–resight study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

9.1 Ratio p̃0 /p0 (L = λ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

10.1 Simulated distributions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

14.1 Ratio plot and corresponding frequency chart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

18.1 Number of usual residents for each scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272

19.1 Concentration graphs corresponding to models with observed covariates . 280

20.1 Butterfly data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

23.1 The profile log-likelihood plot for Example 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351

1.1 Golf tees in St. Andrews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2.1 Count of positive FOBT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

3.1 Population size estimation and uncertainty assessment in real data . . . . 52

4.1 Dengue fever in Chiang Mai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

5.1 Frequency of positive counts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62